Here’s what the Apple means for the County Council races.
District 1 Endorsement: Incumbent Roger Berliner
This is a mild surprise as Berliner and MCEA have not been on each other’s Christmas card list. MCEA supported Republican incumbent Howie Denis over Berliner in 2006 and Berliner voted for “labor savings” in the 2008 budget debate.
But two factors operated in concert to bring the parties together. First, Berliner is not ideologically anti-union. He has never emphasized his opposition to the unions as have Council Members Phil Andrews and Duchy Trachtenberg. Second, there is a growing sense that Berliner is going to win his race against challenger Ilaya Hopkins. So MCEA faced a choice: make no endorsement, thereby ensuring continuous up-and-down relations with Berliner, or endorse him and hope that things will be better. The teachers are a pragmatic group so they chose the latter option. We will see if it pays off.
This is a serious blow to Hopkins. She was hoping for union support to help her uphill race, but now the most electorally influential union has thrown in with the incumbent. Berliner is on a roll now. He started out with a big chunk of cash in the bank. Then he rolled out a huge supporter list and a boatload of incumbent endorsements. Next came the revelation of Hopkins’s recent entry into the Democratic Party. Did we mention that Berliner is running his third race in the district while Hopkins is running for the first time? If the Washington Post endorses Berliner, this race is totally over.
District 2 Endorsement: Craig Rice
Incumbent Mike Knapp did not complete a questionnaire or report for an interview. Rice did both and did so as a council candidate. Dooley’s lopsided loss in 2006 affects perceptions of her as a candidate and Rice has done a good job as Delegate, so this endorsement was expected.
District 3 Endorsement: None
Incumbent Phil Andrews has been an opponent of the unions for many years, but he has no challenger. Even if he did, he would be certain to return to Rockville.
District 4 Endorsement: Incumbent Nancy Navarro
Former school board member: check. Past MCEA endorsee: check. No declared opponent: check. Woman of color: check. Apple Ballot: check.
District 5 Endorsement: Incumbent Valerie Ervin
Former school board member: check. Past MCEA endorsee: check. No declared opponent: check. Woman of color: check. Twenty-five years in the labor movement: check. Apple Ballot: check!
Additionally, we hear that Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman will not be running against Ervin. An easy re-election will position Ervin for a County Executive run or maybe something even higher up.
At-Large Endorsements: Incumbents George Leventhal and Marc Elrich, challengers Becky Wagner and Hans Riemer
This is the most fateful set of endorsements on the Apple Ballot and will have a very large impact. Following is our assessment of the implications for each candidate.
George Leventhal: The two-term incumbent is now firmly in the driver’s seat. Leventhal will have all the money he needs, almost all the big endorsements (except possibly the Post’s) and will wage a solid campaign. We expect him to finish first in the at-large race for the second election in a row. If that happens, Leventhal will be a top contender to be the next County Executive.
Marc Elrich: Looks stronger every day. Elrich won last time with a dual base in the civic and labor communities. He has lost none of that support and is only adding to it. Elrich always has money problems due to his rejection of developer contributions, but he also has more ground troops than any other at-large candidate. We now believe that he will be going back to Rockville.
Becky Wagner and Hans Riemer: The conventional wisdom once was that only one of them would get the Apple, and that person would be in the best position to oust an incumbent. Now both have received the Apple. That means that each will be getting more endorsements, more money and more momentum. Could both of them win?
Duchy Trachtenberg: She was never going to be endorsed by MCEA or any other county employee union as she has done nothing but vote against them despite their invaluable aid to her in 2006. In fact, Trachtenberg told the unions to take a hike before they could tell that to her! The new wrinkle for Trachtenberg is that two challengers, not just one, now have the Apple and all the prestige it brings. Trachtenberg has tons of money and is certain to flood the county with tons of positive mail about herself, but she will have few endorsements and almost no ground troops. Is that enough for her to come back?
Nancy Floreen: Until this year, Floreen had been voting with the public employee unions almost every time this term. We still expect at least some of them to support her. (The police, fire fighters and SEIU backed her last time.) But what changed this year was that Floreen was the Council President, and she was responsible for the budget.
The overwhelming majority of our informants – and not just in labor – knocked Floreen’s handling of the budget. Most people close to the process say she did not do a good job in regularly touching base with the other Council Members, finding out what was acceptable to them, coordinating action with the schools and the Executive Branch and communicating effectively with the public. One influential official said, “Those who worked with Floreen on budget issues were confronted with nothing but platitudes and little willingness to actually engage on the specifics. As Chair of the Council, this was Floreen’s opportunity to provide leadership, yet leadership is the last descriptor that would come to anyone’s mind in this case.” Another high-ranking player described her as a “deer in the headlights” and advocating positions in negotiations that had not been vetted with the rest of the council. Floreen has her defenders and some of this criticism may be unfair. What other Council President has ever had to close a billion dollar deficit? But many Rockville players found Floreen’s performance to be disappointing and that helped edge her out of the Apple Ballot.
There is an element of Shakespearean tragedy here. Floreen wanted to be Council President so badly that she shoved aside former Vice-President Roger Berliner to get the job. If Floreen had been a back-bencher this year and was not saddled with the budget disaster, she may have squeaked through for an Apple. Now Berliner, of all people, has the Apple and Floreen has problems. Sometimes in life, you get what you want and it hurts you.
But Nancy Floreen is a female incumbent with money who has won twice before without the teachers. She is FAR from through.
Jane de Winter and Fred Evans: De Winter has been running since last summer and has not gained any traction. Evans just got in. No one sees either as likely to win.
That’s all for now, folks!
Friday, June 04, 2010
The Apple Drops, Part Two
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22 comments:
By endorsing Rice in District 2, MCEA leadership is out of step with its own members who have been used as an ATM by the council.
Rice is running for council-----unless Knapp runs! Isn't that leadership and commitment?
Rice was a leader in the fight against the Ficker Amendment which now requires all nine council votes to exceed the charter property tax limit. Result: the amendment passed in District 2 by 10,000 votes!
Rice is opposed to our term limits charter amendment which limits the number of terms council members can serve. The amendment is overwhelmingly popular in District 2.
Rice is a sure vote, given his support for every tax increase to come along in the state legislature, to exceed the charter property tax limit and for the large property tax hike the council has planned for next year when they are away from the election spotlight.
Rice is opposed to our charter amendment to limit increases in the county energy tax and cell phone tax to the rate of inflation.
Response? Don't expect one unless somebody else writes it for him; for, he has never commented on Maryland Politics Watch!
Leadership is about moving your team to do their best. I did that in this budget. I got this council through extraordinary pressures from interest groups on every side of the coin with a commitment to guiding principles of fairness, equity and fiscal respsonsibility. I, and my colleagues, worked together, and with our consituents, to find compromises where we could. We made tough calls without political bickering or blame. (mostly unanimously) Even the tradtiionally contentious debate on the ambulance fee was calm and reasoned. My public - and private message has clear and consistent - these are difficult times, we will get through this together, and we will put in place a plan for the future. As much as everyone wants a victim to gossip about these days, they also want a tough leader who listens, and they have one in me and in this council.
Nancy
Adam,
I wold not count Jane DeWinter out of the at-large race. She is exceddingly bright, affable whitty and holds a PHD in Economics at at time when our County is recovering from the Great Recession
Aaron Kaufman
Robin,
When we sat down for lunch at Panera Bread in Germantown a few weeks ago, you never lobbed any of the ridiculous assertions you profess here on MPW. Why was that?
Maybe because you know you don't have any facts to back up the statements you have been making.
And I see you've added things "I did" to your list. I thought if I didn't respond soon, you'd say I had a hand in the assassination of JFK! Before you get any ideas, I wasn't even born then.
Robin, my grandmother told me something once, and she was a very wise woman. Focus on yourself and less on others and you'll find yourself far more successful and much happier.
See you in the community!
" She is exceddingly bright, affable whitty and holds a PHD in Economics at at time when our County is recovering from the Great Recession"
I do not know Jane DeWinter, but Josua's quote above is no recommendation.
The president of major university said,-- I quote from memory. "I have a whole department full of economists, none of whom saw this coming, but all of who are now busy trying to find out what happened."
Adam
I noticed that Craig came in third in the primary race in D15 in 2006 and he had about 30% of the vote, so why is my first time performance at almost 40% in a primary race against a well funded incumbent so derided?
If you look further - he barely beat Jean Cryor in the general , even with a full house press by the Democratic Party, so let's look at all races through the same prism of facts, shall we?
Sharon Dooley
Mr. Ficker,
Will you publicly apologize to Councilmembers Elrich and Floreen and Delegate Rice for your repeated statements that they do not comment on MPW?
Certainly commenting on this blog is not a requirement for office, but since you made such a big deal of it I would like to see you acknowledge you were wrong.
-Marc
Craig:
If you're going to take Robin Ficker's ramblings at face value, you're going to end up with a big headache and no answers.
Most recently, I'm still waiting for him to explain the basis for his claim that Vanessa Atterbeary is the only person running for state office in Montgomery County who strongly opposes the transfer of pension liability from the State to the County.
I'm not holding my breath. Questions about Robin Ficker's assertions go back to at least 2006, and that's just the ones I've personally observed. Your time and effort are far better spent elsewhere.
Jonathan Shurberg
Mr. Davidson, as someone who has known Jane for yeras we will have to argree to disagree.
P.S I meant exceedingly in my earlier post
Craig, welcome to MPW, my favorite Blog. Please tell us what, if anything, I said about issues of concern to the public is untrue.
You opposed the Ficker Amendment on property taxes. Are you now pledging not to vote to exceed the charter property tax limit?
You oppose our charter amendment on term limits.
You oppose our charter amendment to limit energy tax and cell phone tax increases to the rate of inflation.
You voted for the tax increase bills to come before the House of Delegates, something I never did when I was there.
You have been consistent in voting against the desires of the good people of District 2 because you think they are an ATM! Robin Ficker Please respond!
Nancy,
What you just wrote is well-stated and true.
Adam
Pretty solid analysis and I think most of the action at the Council level is going to be in the at-large race.
My two cents: Write up on Floreen was a bit lengthier than others in the at-large race. I suppose you can write a similarly downbeat analysis on other Candidates if you were so inclined. But as you said…the budget year was going to have an impact no matter who was sitting at the Chair’s seat.
The biggest statement is MCEA chose to endorse two challengers. My sense is that Floreen will most likely win (because her base isn’t necessarily labor) and the endorsement to Reimer and Wagner would’ve had more “horse-race” impact if either of them had gotten it alone - in terms of breaking through the pack with the voters as a challenger.
That leaves Trachtenberg, de Winter and Evans. Trachtenberg clearly holds the edge as far as name recognition unless de Winter and Evans are able to do something quick to individually differentiate themselves – not gimmicky but clever ways to touch voters. Both de Winter and Evans are academics/educators and campaigning requires some entrepreneurial energy – they’ve got the brains but they need to add the hustle.
Robin,
You said I was a "leader" in the fight against the Ficker Amendment. Not true as I had no role in the resistance of the Ficker amendment. And unless you were in the voting booth with me you don't even know how I voted on that issue. I don't recall ever staing a public position. Please show me otherwise.
You said the term limit amendment is "overwhelmingly" popular in district 2. Share your numbers with your favorite blog and show us the petition sheets.
I have not supported every tax increase to come along in the State legislature. Show us proof of your assertions.
Never have I commented about an amendment to limit increases in the energy tax and cell phone tax. So how do you know I am "opposed" to that amendment?
Robin, you claim to know what's in my head and I'm not quite sure where you're getting your information. And since you continue to profess untruths, please don't expect another response from me on any front until you publicly apologize.
I take saying things about people that are untrue VERY seriously and consider them slanderous.
Jon, Vanessa is one of the nicest candidates I have met in a long time. Why are you and yours trying to freeze her out? She has sent me her strong views against Montgomery County picking up state teacher pension costs which would lead to even more pressure to increase property taxes on homeowners. I believe she has the best position on this in District 18. I don't think the incumbent State Senator in 18 should be taking sides in the primary for Delegate--whatever happened to the open primary? And I don't think the incumbent Delegates should be slating with a Senator who wants to sell out Montgomery County homeowners by asking that our county assume state teacher pension costs. I didn't compare Vanessa's pension on county assumption of state peision costs with anybody other than the other canddiates in District 18. Atter girl Vanessa
Jon, please let the other council candidates speak for themselves; for, they so seldom take the time to inform the voters on the internet.
Craig, you are talking out of both sides of your mouth and proving that you are not qualified to be on the county council.
Let's hold a joint press conference. If I can't show in writing that you exercised a leadership role against the Ficker Amendment, which requires 9 council votes for the council to exceed the charter property tax limit, I'll drop out of the county council election in 2010. If I can, you will drop out. Agreed?
For your tax increase votes just look at all your votes in the 2007 special election in favor of large increases approved there. I have a hunch you are going to be hearing about these votes again.
Term limits: just look at the votes on term limits in the past in District 2.
Energy and cellphone tax increases. Don't go too far out on a limb on this one Craig, before you talk to the folks calling your shots.
I'm glad my statement of the true facts has brought you out of the shadows, Craig. You shall find that when you run, you cannot hide. Your statement that, "don't expect a response from me on any front," is just silly and immature. In the United States, voters,who are the employers, want to know where the candidates, who are seeking to be employees, stand.
Jon,
You were so right. I need some aspirin.
Nancy, I don't think there was anything "tough," about the calls you made on the budget. You did what you usually do: you used the homeowner as an ATM. Four times in the past you have voted to exceed the charter limit on property taxes. In this term you did so by 420%, giving us the largest property tax increase in a generation. You gave us a 13.5% increase the year of your vote and a 13.5% increase every year since because the floor has now been raised. Your vote has cost each homeowner many thousands of dollars and has been a major factor in bringing Montgomery County to a record number of foreclosures.
Then this year you decided to look to energy tax increases and cellphone tax increases. You took the easy way out and grabbed the nearest money available to spend for "fun," as a former council member stated. A 150+% increase in residential energy taxes on top of record utility hikes because of deregulation. A 75% increase in cell phone taxes. And I am sure you would do it again if reelected; for,you have repeatedly called for increases in the gasoline taxes
Luckily, because of the Ficker Amendment, one council member could block your incessant urge to give us large hikes in property property taxes. But you can raise energy and cell phone taxes without limit under existing law. That is why we are going to put a charter amendment on the ballot the limit energy and cellphone tax increases to the rate of inflation, unless all 9 council members agree. You are going to oppose this amendment and it is going to pass. Unless we have somebody representing the homeowner on the council, we are going to see large increases in property, energy, cellphone and gasoline taxes right after the election.
Jon, the more I think about what you are doing to Vanessa in District 18, the more upset I get.
I served as legal counsel to the National Caucus on the Black Aged. Rosa Parks, Jacqueline Jackson, Aaron Henry, and Hobart Jackson were on the Board. We had 5 Presidential candidates come and speak at our annual meeting.
This closed slate, closed primary, effort in District 18, is the modern day equivalent of telling Vanness to GO TO THE BACK OF THE BUS, just like Rosa was told years ago.
Mr. Ficker,
This stream of comments is starting to bring to mind your former persona as "The Heckler."
What's the call here? The D18 slate is racist because they did not include Vanessa on their team? Is that your point? How does Al Carr fit into this analysis?
And what is Jonathan Shurberg "doing" to Vanessa? The guy couldn't vote for her if he wanted to, he lives in the wrong district.
Free advice, stick to policy misstatements rather than racial or political ones. It suits you better.
-Marc
This would be a much more interesting debate between Robin and Craig if it was in front of a live visual audience.
Dear Mr. Ficker:
Your allegation would be offensive if it weren't so absurd. And it's clear that you have no idea what I've done on issues of inclusion, tolerance and equality.
Let's begin with a basic fact: I'm not supporting the slate, I'm supporting Dana Beyer, the other challenger in District 18. Read my comments again, in this thread and prior ones. I have little patience for slates, as anyone who actually knows me could attest.
I don't know Vanessa Atterbeary at all, and I bear her no ill will whatsoever. My concerns are purely political, and revolve around her apparent association with you, sir. Call me what you will, I become suspicious when a cantankerous gadfly who's been run out of the Democratic Party and who generally makes trouble, decides that a heretofore unknown candidate is worthy of his support for reasons that appear nowhere in the public record.
If I were with the Atterbeary campaign, I'd be less than pleased with your support, but they are free to do as they see fit. I simply asked you the basis for your contention about her "strong" opposition to transferring teacher pension liabilities from the State to the County, and after several non-responses, you now tell me that she told you personally.
Well, again, if I were her, as a Democratic candidate, I wouldn't be telling Republican Robin Ficker anything, but assuming she did that, I find it curious that she hasn't seen fit to actually let the actual DEMOCRATS in District 18 know of her position. My question is, why is Robin Ficker supporting Vanessa Atterbeary, except to stir the pot? And why are anti-gay individuals like Chuck Turner supporting her as well? And if Vanessa Atterbeary is a Democrat who's going to get the support of the voters of deep blue, gay friendly District 18, why is she quietly accepting such odious support?
These aren't black/white issues, they're political issues. It's awfully suspicious that you belatedly thought to inject race into an otherwise purely political discussion. Hmmmmmmmm.
Jonathan Shurberg
Adam:
Here I was wondering what I would do this summer for entertainment, given that the NBA is wrapping up and football doesn't start until the Fall. Now, I am here and reading terms such as "cantankerous gadfly". As a former NBA slogan said "I love this game".
Mr. Rice, you're looking a lot like Kobe Bean in this debate. Great work!
As a D18 resident, I won't hold Mr. Ficker's support of Ms. Atterbeary against her. That's too close the Rev. Wright/Bill Ayers drama for me.
Randy
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