Primaries to Watch V, Part Five

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are the Top Two Primaries to Watch!

2. District 19 State Senate
Previous Rank: #2

Marc
When Delegate Roger Manno first challenged incumbent State Senator Mike Lenett, there was lots of talk about dueling slates and in our last “Primaries to Watch” installment Adam talked about a possible endorsement by Ben Kramer. But it turns out that most of the other folks on the ballot in District 19 do not want to touch this increasingly bitter personality clash with a ten foot pole. I am going to act similarly and leave it at that.

Adam
Take two starving animals, file their claws to razor sharpness, throw them in a cage with a small piece of meat and pull up a seat. But first, have them watch Mike Lenett and Roger Manno so they can see what a real fight looks like.

This race has seen it all: baseball bats, a slime website, an independent mailer and even firearms. Lenett and Manno have almost identical policy positions, so as David Lublin told the Gazette, races like this “become highly personal because the difference between these candidates is relatively small.” Both men finished first in their respective races last time and each has a chance to win, but my sources are starting to lean towards Lenett. Here’s why.

1. Lenett is the incumbent and Manno needs to state a compelling reason for why voters need to kick him out. Saqib Ali and Cheryl Kagan are going after the incumbents they are challenging on the basis of their votes. Manno’s two negative pieces slam Lenett for allegedly stealing other people’s ideas. This is an inside-Annapolis argument that may not resonate with voters.

2. Leisure World HATES negative mail, a fact that was on full display in last year’s Council District 4 special election. In 2008, Don Praisner beat Nancy Navarro in Leisure World by 476-323 votes, or a 47-32% margin. In 2009, Navarro sent out three negative mailers against Ben Kramer and he raised hell over them. Kramer lost the race, but he walloped Navarro in Leisure World by 798-280 votes, or a 67-24% margin. Yes, there were other reasons for Kramer’s performance, but every spy I had who had knowledge of Leisure World said Navarro’s negative mail backfired there. Manno’s baseball bat mailer could backfire there too.

3. MCEA is going to be out in full force on primary day passing out Apple Ballots with Bonnie Cullison’s name on them. Those Apples are also going to promote Lenett. Manno has the Post endorsement, but extra help from MCEA will benefit the incumbent.

4. While both candidates have lots of money, Lenett has a little more, and he could very well swarm the mailboxes at the end.

5. Delegate Ben Kramer has a much better personal relationship with Manno than Lenett. If he had endorsed Manno, he could have helped Manno win Leisure World and Kemp Mill. But Kramer has stayed out of the Senate race, depriving Manno of important help.

Manno’s supporters make some good points on behalf of their candidate. They say that the Post endorsement might mean more in District 19 than the Apple, especially in Leisure World. They believe that Manno’s very likable personality will wear better on voters than Lenett. And they point to Manno’s maniacal door-knocking, substantial grass-roots base and his backing by Delegate Hank Heller, former Senator Len Teitelbaum and former Delegates Adrienne Mandel and Carol Petzold.

All of this is true, but the preponderance of the evidence suggests every so slightly that the race may be headed Lenett’s way.

1. District 39 State Senate
Previous Rank: #1

Marc
You have to laugh when you hear Delegate Saqib Ali and his supporters complain about Senator Nancy King going negative. The challenger has run a relentless three-year campaign against King, sometimes based on legitimate policy differences but always designed to promote his inevitable State Senate candidacy. King is getting ample support from Mike Miller and friends. Her message in the mailboxes is much better than her message at little-watched, though highly analyzed, debates. King is no doubt right that Ali would be an outsider in the State Senate, but Ali is more in touch with Democratic Primary voters than King on specific votes.

We will see on September 14th who can pull themselves out of the gutter and head back to Annapolis. If it is Nancy King, does anyone want to take bets on when Ali’s 2014 campaign begins?

Adam
It’s worth remembering a few things about Saqib Ali and Nancy King before this contest went the way of Big Daddy and the Seven Dwarfs.

Saqib Ali ran a brilliant campaign in 2006, knocked out incumbent Delegate Joan Stern and was the freshest of fresh faces when he arrived in Annapolis. Most politicians present a bland persona to the public, seeking to display themselves in the least offensive way so as not to make enemies. Ali’s genius is that he understands that voters prefer politicians who act like real, live, appealing people. As he reached out to supporters, friends and well-wishers through social media, he attracted allegiance from people who felt that he was one of them – not just in terms of his progressive positions, but also as a human being who was willing to listen and willing to laugh. Despite his unpopularity in Annapolis, I have always liked Saqib Ali for these qualities and his ability to bring new people into politics.

Nancy King is not one of those people who was determined to run for office straight out of the womb. She worked her way up the ranks, from the Montgomery Village Foundation and the PTAs to the Board of Education and then on to Annapolis. If P.J. Hogan had not retired, King would have been perfectly content to serve as Delegate until her time to leave had come. As a legislator, she has been anything but the conservative Republican portrayed by Ali’s campaign. If she was, she would never have been endorsed by MCEA, SEIU, Equality Maryland and other progressive organizations. Sure, Ali is more liberal, but that does not make King a conservative – she is indeed a moderate Democrat. Finally, while I like Ali, I also like Nancy King very much. She is responsive, forthright and unpretentious – an unusual combination for a politician.

So am I going to scold these two for going negative? Absolutely not. Both candidates know exactly what they’re doing and are making their choices with eyes wide open. They understand the risks and benefits of their attacks. They probably understand the damage that each of their reputations will suffer in the eyes of some voters. But they have decided to do what it takes to win, and damn the consequences.

So who will survive? The race will turn on two questions. First, will Ali’s ground game be enough to make up for King’s deeper roots in the district? Or will he be so distracted by her mail that he will lose his focus? And second, whose negative attacks will be more effective? King seems to have the edge on both counts right now, but low turnout, ferocious mail and huge resources on both sides make this contest a bit unpredictable.

No matter who wins, this will go down as one of the nastiest MoCo races of all time!

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Primaries to Watch V, Part Four

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Four and Three!

4. District 17 State Senate
Previous Rank: #3

Marc
Shortly after Adam christened this race the “classiest” in Montgomery County, fireworks started to fly with Cheryl Kagan aggressively going after incumbent Jennie Forehand over a missed death penalty vote. The issue is a bit of a political trapeze act for Kagan (where exactly does she stand on the death penalty?), but absenteeism is an effective campaign tactic.

Forehand is out working now and if she can remind voters who she is and that they really have no issue with her, she could still be able to beat back a really aggressive challenge by Kagan. One potential twist I have heard, though from Forehand supporters, is that much of Kagan’s effort has been a mirage and she did not have nearly the head start in the field she claimed before the filing deadline. Even if that were true, she was definitely raising funds and meeting with lots of groups and individuals long before July.

Adam
Kagan has rolled the dice by sending out no fewer than three negative mailers hitting Forehand. The issues they discuss are fair game: missed votes and a bad vote to pass the hated computer tax. But Jennie “Grandma” Forehand is a difficult target for negative campaigning and this state legislative district has not seen negative mail before.

Here’s the case made by Forehand’s supporters. The district has no other contests of note – no County Council district race, no Delegate race and no top-of-the-ballot races. That means turnout will be very low and will consist mainly of long-time voters who have been supporting Forehand for decades. That is a bad environment for any challenger and gives Forehand a leg up. I was skeptical of that case given that for many months Forehand was running a non-campaign and Kagan was everywhere.

But Kagan’s negative mail changes the dynamic. She has given Forehand’s supporters a reason to get mad and come out. Whether they can be offset by a wave of new voters demanding the sort of activist representation that could be provided by Kagan is a big question. Kagan is a very bright candidate and she may well have decided to go negative because she had some evidence that Forehand would pull out a positive vs. positive campaign. There is a rumor floating around that a recent poll showed Forehand getting 60% support and perhaps that influenced Kagan’s thinking. One more factor is at play here: Forehand has the Apple Ballot and Kagan has the Post endorsement. Is that a wash or not?

A majority of our informants had been picking Kagan to win, but recent events have changed this race and the turnout argument on behalf of Forehand is a good one. I have changed my position from leaning towards Kagan to favoring her by the most narrow of margins.

3. Council At-Large
Previous Rank: #4

Marc
I think the only options here are for the four incumbents to return or Hans Riemer to knock one of them off. Beating incumbents is difficult and only Riemer seems to have the funds and organization right now to do it.

All of the incumbents, except maybe Marc Elrich, seem to have some block of voters or organized interest working against them. But instead of helping Riemer, that could just lead to all four coming back. The math is hard in a pick four race.

Full disclosure, I have donated to and volunteered for Hans Riemer.

Adam
Here’s an odd fact: since the current council configuration of five district seats and four at-large seats was established in 1990, the four at-large incumbents have never run for reelection. Every race since then has had at least one open seat. Two at-large incumbents have been defeated: freshman Blair Ewing in 2002, who was targeted by Doug Duncan’s End Gridlock slate, and five-term incumbent Mike Subin in 2006, who was excluded from the Apple Ballot and did not campaign. So there is no real precedent for what we are witnessing this year.

I’ve written a lot about this race. My picks are George Leventhal to finish first, Marc Elrich to finish second and Nancy Floreen to finish fourth. The wild cards are Duchy Trachtenberg, who has tons of money, few endorsements and no campaign expertise, and challenger Hans Riemer. Either of them could finish anywhere from third to fifth.

Riemer has a decent chance to win. Look at the ingredients of a successful campaign. Endorsements: he has plenty, including the Post and the Apple. Money: he has plenty. Ground game: his is the best in the field. Name recognition: nope, not yet, and that’s his problem. If low turnout emphasizes incumbent name recognition, then no previously little-known challenger can break through. But if campaign skill, endorsements, money and field operations mean anything, Riemer will go to Rockville.

So if he wins, who would he replace? I don’t think it will be Leventhal or Elrich. Trachtenberg has lots of problems and Floreen has a few of them. And many of our smartest spies are saying all the incumbents will come back.

Putting it all together, I think there is a 50% chance that all the incumbents will be reelected, a 30% chance that Riemer displaces Trachtenberg and a 20% chance that he displaces Floreen. Council at-large races have a history of tight finishes so this could all come down to a couple hundred votes.

We’ll have the Final Two tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch V, Part Three

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Six and Five!

6. District 16 Delegate Open Seat
Previous Rank: #6

Marc
The chaos continues in District 16. At times, this has started to shape up as a race between Obama campaign staffer Kyle Lierman and Ariana Kelly from MomsRising. Both have the resources to run competitively and the mail house does not care if it was loaned to the campaign or only raised as a result of family connections. On the other hand, Kelly has not been able to consolidate as much support against Lierman as it appeared she would early on, when she picked up the Apple Ballot and SEIU.

Lierman and Kelly are still the most likely new Delegates, but there are nine other challengers in the race and they are all making waves in their own ways. Hrant Jamgochian can try to leverage the Post endorsement into political victory. Mark Winston and Charlie Chester can still convince voters that their experience is what is needed. Scott Goldberg can make good use of his combination of personality and policy smarts to connect. Bill Farley has demonstrated at least through lawn signs (which cannot vote) a presence far beyond his political base of Somerset. One thing holding back the pack is a serious lack of resources compared to Kelly and Lierman.

Incumbents Bill Frick and Susan Lee are also working really hard to keep their seats, which seems pretty certain but it is never a bad thing to see incumbents work.

Full disclosure, I have volunteered for the incumbents and donated to Bill Frick.

Adam
It’s a pity that Hrant Jamgochian, Scott Goldberg and Mark Winston do not live in District 39 as all of them could very well win the open seat up there. Unfortunately for them, they are competing with Kyle Lierman and Ariana Kelly.

Our spies say that Lierman is running the best campaign. He has tons of outside money without resorting to big self-funded loans (as has Kelly), has good mail and has a sophisticated voter outreach operation. None of this is a surprise given the work he did for Barack Obama in 2008. If Lierman was not a candidate, he would be an excellent campaign manager. Kelly has two important advantages: her endorsements (including the Apple) and her status as the only female challenger. She also has enough money to compete with Lierman.

The fact that the Post did not go with Lierman helps Kelly, but the teachers have more critical races than this one to which to devote poll coverage. Since the mail is crazy in this district, that puts a premium on other ways to reach voters. Lierman’s skill set will help in that regard. I still see this as a two-way race, but one interesting new wrinkle is that Kelly has gone negative against Lierman. If the two of them start slugging it out, there is a tiny chance that another challenger could squeeze past them for the open seat.

5. District 19 Delegate Open Seat
Previous Rank: #7

Marc
You have to hand it to Bonnie Cullison. If she is half as convincing with District 19 voters as she must have been with the Post to get their endorsement, she should do well on September 14th. But that only works if she is out there hustling as much as the other candidates working for District 19’s two open seats including fellow Apple Ballot endorsee Jay Hutchins, fellow Post endorsee Sam Arora, as well as Hoan Dang and Vivian Scretchen.

The teachers will likely be out in force in District 19, which will benefit Jay Hutchins since he shares their endorsement. Sam Arora has plenty of money and work ethic, but it is probably time to start spending some of it on mail.

Full disclosure, I donated to Arora and have volunteered for him.

Adam
Ben Kramer is the only incumbent in the race and is certain to come back. That leaves two seats for three quality candidates: Sam Arora, Bonnie Cullison and Jay Hutchins.

Lots of sources in the district are picking Arora to finish second. He started early, has the most money, has been working the hardest and has performed well in candidate forums. He does not have the Apple Ballot, but he does have the Post endorsement, and this may be one district where the Post is as, or maybe even more, important than the Apple. Arora has been all over Leisure World and his signs sprouted first around the district, but Hutchins has nearly caught up in the sign war. Arora has problems: he started as a complete unknown, has little history in the district before running for office and some say his campaign has petered out a little bit. But most of our informants say that he has run the best campaign of any Delegate candidate and that could get him to Annapolis.

If Arora wins, Cullison and Hutchins will square off for the remaining seat. Cullison scored a huge win by getting the Post endorsement, and her supporters can point to that as a sign that she is not merely a creature of MCEA. Hutchins is hustling and is liked by nearly everyone who meets him. Cullison’s campaign gets low marks for execution and Hutchins has more money, but Cullison benefits from being the most viable woman in the race. Our sources are flipping coins on this one, but the Post could make the difference for Cullison in the end. The result could easily depend on absentees and provisionals.

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch V, Part Two

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Eight and Seven!

8. District 14 Delegate Open Seat
Previous Rank: #8

Marc
Incumbent Anne Kaiser and 2002 candidate Craig Zucker are widely considered locks for two of the three Delegate seats. Zucker should probably be sweating a little just because of the uncertainty created by two open seats.

For the third seat, the crystal ball is a little cloudy. Eric Luedtke continues to chug along with door knocking and many solid endorsements. I have heard anecdotally that Jodi Finkelstein is impressing lots of people, including the Washington Post of course. Bo Newsome’s campaign had a late and real slow start, but benefits from being on the slate of incumbents plus Zucker.

It is hard to say with any certainty who breaks through here. I give the edge to Luedtke who started early when he was planning a State Senate run and is hitting so many doors, but I am probably biased.

Full disclosure, I donated to Kaiser, Luedtke, and Zucker. Neeta Datt’s son and I attended high school together. I have volunteered for Luedtke and Kaiser.

Adam
Kaiser is definitely a lock. Zucker has been a smart pick for nearly a year. Of the remaining candidates, Luedtke has the best combination of money (although not much), endorsements, door-knocking and mail. Bo Newsome may be technically on a slate with Rona Kramer, Kaiser and Zucker, but they are effectively letting him sink or swim on his own. The other candidates’ financial performances are truly woeful. One candidate whose fundraising record is unknown is Vanessa Ali, who never sent in her August 10 report and has racked up $150 in late fees.


7. District 14 State Senate Challenge
Previous Rank: #5

Marc
From where I am sitting, which is far, far away from District 14, Delegate Karen Montgomery is not picking up the momentum she needs to topple Rona Kramer despite a steady stream of door knocking. The incumbent State Senator is taking Montgomery seriously, has formed a full slate, and has the full-throated support of Ike Leggett and others as a result. To win, the challenger will need to rapidly amp up her campaign to try and demonstrate why Kramer is out of touch with primary voters.

Adam
Both candidates are working hard at crunch time. Both are mailing, both are knocking and both have allies. The unions have stepped up to help Montgomery with the first of what could be multiple independent mailers, but Kramer can always write checks to herself to counter them.

Kramer is holding an ace that has not yet been seen. It is widely known that Montgomery was in China during the critical 2007 special session and missed votes on tax hikes, slots and the budget. But it appears that she missed the 2006 special session too. She was recorded as having an “excused absence” on the only two bills to make it to the House floor during that session: a bill to crack down on sex offenders and a bill to limit increases in electricity rates. Given the recent problems with Pepco, that latter missed vote could make for a damaging mailer.

Our informants are split down the middle on this contest and many are calling it a toss-up. But when the incumbent holds the money advantage, these kinds of races usually go in their favor.

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch V, Part One

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Marc
A major fundraising report is in, the Washington Post has given its blessings from atop the mountain, mailboxes are filling up, and people who do not read this blog are finally starting to pay attention. So it is time for another installment of “Primaries to Watch.”

The problem with a list like this is it rewards bad behavior. The relatively tame District 14 and 17 State Senate challenges are not as fun to watch next to the madness of the District 16 or 19 Delegate races or the increasing nastiness of District 19 or 39 State Senate. But these races are supposed to be interesting, so here goes.

10. Hopkins vs. Berliner
Previous Rank: #10

Marc
Hopkins is hitting Berliner harder and harder through her mass emails, really taking it to him on one of his strongest issues, energy. She has attacked his loan program for home improvements, his public comments on Pepco, and his passage of a carbon tax. But it is probably too late to really change the overall momentum of the campaign. Hopkins does not have much presence outside of her geographic base of East Bethesda where she will likely do well. Berliner retains all the advantages of incumbency including a fundraising edge and most endorsements.

The Gazette endorsement is a nice feather in Hopkins’ cap and if she is thinking about her political future, she should figure out how to use big endorsements and other attributes from losing campaigns a la Laura Berthiaume (she got the Gazette in her 2006 Delegate race and later was elected to the School Board) or Ryan Spiegel (he got the Post in his 2006 Delegate race and later was elected to the Gaithersburg City Council).

More likely, Hopkins will spend the next few weeks continuing to hammer pretty hard at Berliner and try to pull out an unlikely win.

Full disclosure, I donated to Berliner in 2008 and serve on the Western Montgomery County Citizens Advisory Board with Hopkins.

Adam
Ilaya Hopkins had a lot of potential at the beginning of this race, but Berliner has totally overwhelmed her. He has run a classic incumbent campaign of reporting early money, rolling up lots of endorsements, taking the high road as she has gone negative and using his status as an incumbent to get into the Washington Post on the Pepco issue. This contest stopped being competitive when Berliner got on the Apple Ballot and now none of our informants believe Hopkins will win. She has to be kicking herself for missing out on the District 16 open seat. Hopkins would have been one of the favorites in that race.

The fact that we still have this contest at number ten illustrates how bored we are by the District 15 and 39 House primaries. Those races are midget wrestling compared to the titanic King-Ali and Lenett-Manno cage matches.

9. Council 2 Open Seat
Previous Rank: #9

Marc
There are five candidates in the race, but this one is really a three-way contest between Delegate Craig Rice, former Planning Board Chair Royce Hanson, and civic activist and prior candidate Sharon Dooley.

The stars may be aligning for Rice. He has the financial edge, strong endorsements, and is apparently the only candidate doing serious door knocking. Still, Hanson should have some latent name ID and people should be impressed by his experience. Dooley will be the only woman in the primary and has garnered substantial votes in the District before.

The winner here will face a spirited race against Robin Ficker, making this one of the more serious fall contests in the County.

Full disclosure, I have been doing some volunteer work for Craig Rice.

Adam
Craig Rice is now the favorite. He has the edge over Royce Hanson and Sharon Dooley in money, endorsements and prior electoral performance. Hanson last ran for office in 1978 (losing a Democratic County Executive primary to Charlie Gilchrist) and has half of Rice’s cash on hand. Dooley was crushed by incumbent Mike Knapp in 2006 and hasn’t changed much since then. She has almost no money. Rice worked very hard to beat popular Republican incumbent Delegate Jean Cryor in the last cycle and his Legislative District 15 precincts accounted for about 40% of the votes cast in Council District 2 in 2006. Additionally, MCEA will knock itself out on poll coverage in this district because Rice could be a swing vote on budget issues. All of this puts Rice over the top.

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch IV, Part Five

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are the Top Two Primaries to Watch!

2. District 19 State Senate
Previous Rank: #3

Marc
My view on this race has evolved since our last installment. Manno has been extremely aggressive in lining up district-based support and going after endorsements. Although he did not get the Apple Ballot, his letter campaign to try to force the teachers into supporting him showed some strength. There is not a great issue-based rationale for choosing Manno over Lenett or vice versa. Manno is trying to make the race about personality and leadership. As I have said before, Lenett will work hard to keep his seat. These are two ambitious guys who have a lot more in common than they care to admit.

Adam
Under normal circumstances, an incumbent like Mike Lenett would not be endangered. He has a lot of money, works the district hard, has a good base of support and has a liberal voting record that will appeal to MoCo Democratic primary voters. Incumbents get into trouble for being lazy, making lots of enemies at home or voting against their districts. Lenett has committed none of those sins. All of this plus his intelligence, energy and institutional support make him a very formidable incumbent.

But Roger Manno is not an ordinary challenger. He has many of the same advantages that Lenett possesses: good financing, a base inside the district, campaign know-how and more endorsements than challengers usually get. Manno is also a very likable liberal who wears his heart on his sleeve and tends to attract true believers to his cause. Lenett’s task is to thwart Manno’s personal appeal. Manno’s task is to establish a contrast with an incumbent who agrees with him on almost every issue. Our informants are divided right down the middle on who will win and that makes this an exciting race.

The X-Factor could be Delegate Ben Kramer, who is running for reelection. Kramer and Manno are something of an Odd Couple. They share a suite in Annapolis and occasionally disagree on issues, but they have established a very constructive working relationship. Your author has never heard of one disparaging the other. Kramer does not have that sort of relationship with Lenett. Kramer is very strong in Leisure World, where he crushed Nancy Navarro in last year’s special election, and in Kemp Mill, where he grew up. If Kramer throws in for Manno and helps him win Leisure World and Kemp Mill, Lenett will have to pull out all the stops to triumph.

1. District 39 State Senate
Previous Rank: #2

Marc
Nancy King just does not get it. Saqib Ali has been running against her since 2007 when she beat him for the State Senate appointment. Yet King seemed to hope against hope that Ali would not run. When I asked one of her supporters about her comments to the Washington Grove Town Council about the BOAST Bill, I was assured the reason for her lapse was because it was a few months ago before the race began. A few months ago? Ali has been running for three years, yet King seemed ill-prepared in fundraising or message.

She is finally building a serious campaign but really needs to focus on her message. Ali knows how to pick apart every vote and clearly differentiate himself as a progressive from the moderate incumbent. In a Democratic primary, that matters and King needs to understand that if she is going to return to Annapolis.

Adam
There is no doubt about it: Saqib Ali is a very talented candidate. He understands every facet of campaign operations: motivating volunteers, managing a field operation, planning and staging his mail, raising money and of course working old and new media. He already has three district-wide mailers out and has moved from biography to contrast. He will have all the resources he needs for more mailers, more door lit and more of anything he believes is necessary to win. The one thing he needs to guard against is a tendency to go overboard against his opponent.

Nancy King is a better public servant than a politician. She draws considerable respect from other elected officials and the educational community, which she served as a school board member for two terms. In person, she is an easy-going, gracious lady from upstate New York who is a good listener and never comes across as a self-promoter. She is also not the conservative knuckle-dragger that Ali is trying to define her as.

But that definition battle is the story of the campaign so far. Ali is very actively defining himself as the progressive and King as the conservative. King does not seem to be trying to define either of them. It is not necessary for King to respond to every one of Ali’s attacks, but her surrogates should rally to her defense. Where are her teammates, Delegates Charles Barkley and Kirill Reznik? Where are her long-time supporters inside the district? When Ali goes after King on education, why not ask MCEA to do a robocall defending King? And why not put Ali on the defensive? His record in Annapolis contains as many opportunities for mischief as does King’s.

Two months ago, the consensus was that King was the favorite. Now an increasing number of our sources are predicting an Ali victory, though they are not a majority. Anything – ANYTHING – could happen in this race, and that is why it is our Number One Primary to Watch.

That’s all for now, folks!

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Primaries to Watch IV, Part Four

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Four and Three!

4. Council At-Large
Previous Rank: #4

Marc
For a race with all four incumbents running, there is a lot of action here. With the filing deadline behind us, there are six challengers. Of the six, I would argue that at this point only two are serious contenders to knock off an incumbent: Hans Riemer and Becky Wagner. Both are running hard campaigns all around the County and secured the Apple Ballot. Riemer also nabbed the Post endorsement. Jane de Winter has also been running for fifteen months and working hard.

But the real question is whether any incumbent is actually vulnerable. Nancy Floreen was the loser in the Apple Ballot sweepstakes, but she has won without it twice before. Duchy Trachtenberg seems to be a popular target, but she has $350,000 which pays for a lot of mail. Marc Elrich will probably have the least money, but he has strong grassroots support and candidates in every race are praising his Bus Rapid Transit plan. The Apple Ballot and Post stamp of approval help his profile too. George Leventhal, the primary vote leader in 2006, seems to be the favorite for that slot again. Even the Washington Post gave him some praise while declining to endorse him, a courtesy they did not extend to many others they did not support.

There are some great challengers, but who are they going to beat?

Full disclosure, I am a public supporter of Hans Riemer.

Adam
The last assessment by the spies still mostly holds. There is a significant sentiment that all four incumbents will win. There are also those who think that Hans Riemer will beat one of them, although educated observers differ on whether Duchy Trachtenberg or Nancy Floreen is more vulnerable. Riemer is running the best campaign of any candidate and he is flying high because he and incumbent Marc Elrich are the only at-large contenders to get both the Apple Ballot and the Post endorsement. Becky Wagner has a lot of respect in some quarters of the county and still has an outside shot as long as she stays on message and avoids spats and rants. The Post is trying to pin all the county’s budget problems on incumbent George Leventhal, but the newspaper by itself cannot prevent him from coming back. We have noticed that the incumbents mainly bring their families or their council staffers to parades and other events, meaning that their ground games are not awesomely strong.

There are various phenomena operating just under the surface in the at-large campaign. They include:

1. The Possibility of Slates.
Last fall, many speculated that the Council Members who backed Nancy Floreen for President (Floreen, George Leventhal, Mike Knapp, Valerie Ervin and Nancy Navarro) might form a slate and try to knock out one of the other four. That idea was dashed by Ervin when she announced that challenger Hans Riemer was the only at-large candidate she would be backing. Now it seems more likely that at least some of the other four council incumbents – Roger Berliner, Phil Andrews, Duchy Trachtenberg and Marc Elrich – will be cooperating formally or informally. If they do, one of their priorities will be ensuring that Elrich, who refuses developer contributions, will have enough money to finance his mail. They may also choose to back an at-large challenger if they can find one who is both viable and politically acceptable.

2. Target: Floreen
Accordingly, some or all of the above four may go after Floreen. None of them agree with her on growth policy, none were impressed with her handling of the budget and all were unhappy at her successful wresting of the council presidency from Berliner. Now that she has been rejected by MCEA, some smell blood in the water. We have heard from multiple sources that there is a significant possibility that Floreen will be targeted by negative mail, either by a slate including one or more of the four who did not back her for the presidency or by an “independent” entity supported by them. Since Andrews has no opponent, Berliner is pulling away from Hopkins and Trachtenberg has more money than several regional banks, there is more than enough campaign cash to spare for a mailer or two against Floreen. Leventhal is not viewed as vulnerable enough for such tactics to have effect.

3. County Executive 2014
In part, the at-large race will be affected by the dynamics of the impending contest to succeed Ike Leggett in 2014. Leventhal is likely to run. Ervin would be foolish not to consider it, and she is no fool. There may be others. If Leventhal finishes first and Riemer does not win, Leventhal will project early strength for the Executive race. If Riemer wins with strong support from District 5 and non-white precincts, Ervin will look like a king-maker. If Riemer scores close to Leventhal or even outpolls him, Ervin will look even more formidable. But if Marc Elrich finishes first, his name will be bandied about. Trust us: all capable politicians think more than one step ahead, and the County Executive’s seat is a big step indeed.

3. District 17 State Senate
Previous Rank: #1

Marc
The rumor is that Jennie Forehand has begun to work, but what took her so long? Why let Cheryl Kagan get such a head start when the challenger has been open about her campaign for over a year? If Forehand loses, I think the post-mortem on her campaign will focus on the past year and Forehand’s failure to understand she was facing a serious threat. A similar scenario has unfolded in District 39. On the other hand, if Forehand pulls out a victory it will demonstrate the power of incumbency and slates.

Adam
Cheryl Kagan has the complete package for a candidate: smarts, savvy, charm, speaking ability, experience in campaigning and office-holding, work ethic and a methodical approach to the business of politicking. She is the kind of challenger that would pose problems for any incumbent and is running perhaps the best campaign in the county. But she has a conundrum to resolve: how to give voters a reason to get rid of Forehand. The incumbent is a pleasant, gracious and long-serving politician who has built up a base among regular, older voters who tend to dominate primaries with low turnout. Kagan has not tried to build a contrast with Forehand. It’s tricky given that the two have similar policy positions and no one wants to come across as beating up the nice grandmotherly lady next door.

If Forehand lets Kagan continue to hustle rings around her, she will lose. But if she picks it up, she could still survive.

We reveal the final two tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch IV, Part Three

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Six and Five!

6. District 16 Open Seat
Previous Rank: #7

Marc
Chaos is the order of the day in District 16. There are thirteen candidates vying for three Delegate seats. Perhaps that should not be a surprise since eleven ran for one seat in 2007 when Delegate Frick was appointed. It is an odd race. One of the incumbents has never run before, one of the challengers has run five times, and the district has little to drive turnout at the top of the ticket.

Obama campaign staffer Kyle Lierman, business owner and Montgomery County Young Democrats President Scott Goldberg, and former NARAL Executive Director Ariana Kelly have been the most active thus far. But Mark Winston is coming out strong with Ike Leggett’s endorsement and Hrant Jamgochian has been carpet bombing the district with signs and campaign frisbees.

Bill Frick and Susan Lee have been canvassing with teammate Brian Frosh and few have anything bad to say about them. Frosh has really stepped up for Frick and Lee, spending lots of time door knocking despite not having a primary and being the heavy favorite in November. Most people think the real fight is for the third Delegate slot. With a race this crowded with a low turnout, it could be anyone’s for the taking.

A fun little note is that one of the three Republicans waiting in the general will be Prince Arora, who ran as a Democrat for the appointment in 2007.

Full disclosure, I am a member of the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee from District 16 and have supported Bill Frick.

Adam
There are too many candidates in this race. Most of them will get lost in the shuffle and District 16 residents will learn to get very acquainted with throwing out mailers. This greatly helps incumbents Susan Lee and Bill Frick, who should win solidly by racking up institutional support and cash and running with Senator Brian Frosh.

So for the challengers, how do you stand out? There are usually two ways to do so: endorsements and money. Ariana Kelly is the early endorsement leader, collecting support from MCEA, NARAL, NOW and SEIU. There could be more to come. Kyle Lierman will rely on his famous last name and his Obama connections to raise great heaping gobs of cash. Kelly is the only female Democratic candidate other than Lee and Lierman’s campaign experience is unparalleled. All of these factors make these two stand out.

The others are all white males who will probably wind up agreeing on most issues. As the deluge of literature begins to swamp mailboxes, voters will have a hard time telling them apart. These candidates must figure out a way to break out from the pack. Could it be Mark Winston, who was endorsed by Ike Leggett? Could it be Young Dems leader Scott Goldberg? Could it be someone else? Or will this be a Kelly-Lierman race? It’s too early to tell.

5. District 14 State Senate Challenge
Previous Rank: #5

Marc
Karen Montgomery is knocking on doors and talking about progressive issues. Rona Kramer has slated up with incumbent Delegate Anne Kaiser, and Delegate candidates Craig Zucker and Bo Newsome and is talking about Montgomery missing the 2007 Special Session. Absenteeism is an old, effective campaign favorite and Kramer will make a big deal out of it. Both candidates are out working but given Kramer’s money this is a real uphill climb for Montgomery. Progressives are happy to have a champion talking about issues such as the death penalty, but it may not be enough against the entrenched Kramer.

Adam
Jamie Raskin toppled Ida Ruben in 2006 in part by tapping into a wave of progressive activism in Silver Spring and Takoma Park. One of the questions in this cycle has been where those progressives would wind up. A school of thought held that many of them would head up US-29, New Hampshire Avenue and Georgia Avenue to help a credible liberal defeat Rona Kramer. So where are they?

This race is behaving rather predictably so far. Montgomery is racking up endorsements from unions and environmentalists. Kramer has assembled a slate for self-defense and will soon be spending lots of money on mail. If Montgomery’s endorsements are accompanied by real live boots on the ground, she has a chance. Otherwise, Kramer is going to win.

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch IV, Part Two

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Eight and Seven!

8. District 14 Delegate Open Seats
Previous Rank: #8

Marc
The dust is still settling in District 14 where eight candidates are running for three seats. The safe money seems to be on two term incumbent Anne Kaiser returning to Annapolis. She even worked hard in 2006 when there was little primary suspense. Confidence is high for Craig Zucker as well, who is slating with Kaiser and State Senator Rona Kramer.

As I wrote previously, there has been a strong push for an African American candidate in District 14 (Ike Leggett’s home district). Kramer, Kaiser, and Zucker are adding 2006 County Council candidate Bo Newsome to their team. Newsome received 7.56% of the vote in District 14 when he ran for Council, a distant sixth. Though he did do better in District 14 than he did Countywide, where he registered 5.91%. However, Newsome did get the Washington Post endorsement and ran what was considered a credible campaign. Being on the slate will be a big boost for Newsome, but it does not give him a free pass by all of the other candidates in the field.

Those other candidates are led so far by Eric Luedtke. Luedtke has been running hard for months, bringing home endorsements, and most importantly knocking on lots and lots of doors. Others in the field include Jodi Finkelstein, Vanessa Ali, Neeta Datt, and Gerald Roper.

Full disclosure, I donated to Kaiser, Luedtke, and Zucker. Neeta Datt’s son and I attended high school together.

Adam
Kaiser and Zucker are going to win, so the question in this race applies to the remaining Delegate seat. I am a bit puzzled about why Kaiser and Zucker chose to align with Newsome. It makes sense for Rona Kramer, who would like to have African-American votes in her race against Karen Montgomery. It also looks like payback by Kramer against Eric Luedtke, who briefly explored a run against Kramer last fall. But Kaiser and Zucker do not need Newsome, or even a slate of any kind, to win. And since Luedtke is a favored son of many parts of the county’s progressive community, there has been pushback against what is perceived by some as an attempt to keep him out of Annapolis.

But in the end, the slate’s actions probably don’t matter all that much. Luedtke has the endorsements and is doing the work necessary to win. The other third-seat Delegate candidates have not put together solid campaigns yet and it’s getting late – maybe too late.

7. District 19 Delegate Open Seats
Previous Rank: #6

Marc
With Delegate Ben Kramer opting for reelection, District 19 had to settle for two open seats. Most of the five non-incumbents running have been hustling for months. Hustle is what they will have to do from now until September 14th. There is no favorite in this race and each candidate brings their own strengths and weaknesses.

If I had to give one candidate the edge, it would probably be Sam Arora due to his resources and door knocking thus far. I do not live in District 19, but I have not heard of any of the challengers doing as much as Arora yet. That said, Cullison and Hutchins have the Apple Ballot and Hoan Dang has been out and about for months. If you live in District 19, expect to hear your doorbell a lot.

Full disclosure, I donated to Sam Arora.

Adam
Ben Kramer will go back to the statehouse because of his name recognition from last year’s special election, his twin base in Leisure World and Kemp Mill, his famous surname and his family fortune. That leaves three competitive candidates for two seats.

Bonnie Cullison has lots of endorsements, is the only woman in the race other than late filer Vivian Scretchen and is a good speaker with a personality that should appeal to voters. She is the only candidate in the district who can claim to be a leader on the county’s number one issue – education. Her campaign took a long time to come together but we hear she is now out on the doors. Additionally, MCEA will be heavily invested in sending its former President to Annapolis. Jay Hutchins is a very likable person with a good biography and lots of endorsements, including the Apple Ballot. But some think he is not yet working hard enough to fend off Sam “Hunk of the Hill” Arora, who is coming on with a real head of steam. Arora has bundles of money, a whole bunch of campaign savvy and is out-hustling everybody. Any two of these three could win. One question still lingers: how will the intensely competitive Senate race affect the Delegate race?

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch IV, Part One

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Marc
Adam Pagnucco has been temporarily dragged out of retirement for another installment of Primaries to Watch. With the filing deadline behind us, the races are set for the September 14th primary.

Adam
Look folks, I am just as unhappy with the lack of mainstream media coverage of our council and state legislative primaries as you are, so I am going to help Marc with this series just this once. If there are any typos in my commentary, it means the Little Man has poured milk onto the keyboard. Off to the Top Ten most interesting primaries in MoCo!

Marc
Off the list:

District 39 Delegate Open Seat - There’s still plenty of action in District 39, but with Shane Robinson racking up endorsements, Bob Hydorn strong in Montgomery Village and the incumbents working hard, this is the calmest of the open Delegate seats. We only have ten slots and District 39 Delegate just does not make the cut.

10. Hopkins vs. Berliner
Prior Rank: #10

Marc
Ilaya Hopkins’ biggest coup since our last installment was securing the endorsement of Doug Duncan, still a strong name among Democratic primary voters. Berliner has taken Hopkins’ challenge seriously and they are both working the district hard. So far, the two have met for one debate which depending on who you talk to was a resounding victory for both candidates.

Berliner has done a good job of reminding folks about some of the good things he has done and has lined up lots of community support, got the Apple Ballot, and most recently was endorsed by the Washington Post. Hopkins has not needled Berliner as sharply as she probably needs to on some of his weak spots. She has the hot summer at door steps and at least two more debates to do so. As with most races, the next big milestone in this one will be the campaign finance reports. Hopkins is knocking on doors, but will she have the resources to compete with Berliner at the mailbox?

Full disclosure, I donated to Berliner in 2008 and serve on the Western Montgomery County Citizens Advisory Board with Hopkins.

Adam
Roger Berliner has run a classic incumbent campaign. First, he locked up a huge district resident supporter list a month before challenger Ilaya Hopkins announced. Next, he showed a cash balance of nearly $100,000 in his January campaign finance report. Then he began rolling out waves of endorsements. All of this persuaded MCEA to put him on the Apple Ballot because they figured he was going to win.

Ilaya Hopkins is not a bad candidate. To the contrary – she was one of the district’s most prominent civic activists and had a good deal of potential six months ago. But there’s nothing that most challengers can do when an incumbent without an obvious problem executes the above strategy as well as Berliner has. A challenger in Hopkins’ position has three choices: withdraw, run a polite campaign with an eye on the future, or go negative in a long shot to win. Hopkins appears to have picked the third option as she has hit Berliner again and again and even went after one of his supporters on her website. Adding to Hopkins’ problems is the impending mail barrage by District 16 Delegate candidates that will bury her literature under piles of other candidates’ pieces. Now that the Post has endorsed Berliner, this race is almost over.

9. Council District 2 Open Seat
Prior Rank: None

Marc
District 2 has seen a lot of action the past few weeks. The district went from a rematch between Sharon Dooley and Mike Knapp to a face-off between Delegate Craig Rice and Dooley, his former supporter. Now the race has been shaken up by the entry of two-time former Planning Board Chair Royce Hanson.

Each candidate has their strengths. Dooley has run for the seat before and knows the district well. Rice won a tough election in 2006 and picked up a lot of institutional support before Hanson got into the race, including the Apple Ballot. Hanson has some name ID, will have no trouble raising money, won the Post’s endorsement and will be an ace on development issues.

Now the weaknesses. Dooley may have topped out in the “slow growth” year of 2006 with around 35%. Rice won in 2006 on a Democratic wave and had poor fundraising. Hanson has not run for office since the 1960s and may not be prepared for a grassroots, door to door campaign.

Watching this one shake out will be great fun for political junkies all summer. One key issue will be whether Hanson comes off as a responsible, experienced voice or someone bitter and dismissive of his former bosses on the County Council.

Full disclosure, I donated to Rice’s Delegate campaign.

Adam
Royce Hanson is the most intriguing candidate in the county. He has not run for office since he lost to Charlie Gilchrist in the 1978 County Executive Democratic primary. Hanson is a living legend: the father of the Ag Reserve, the inventor of many of the county’s planning tests and procedures and arguably the leading advocate of smart growth (though some disagree over how that is defined). But there are so many questions. Will Hanson hit the doors? Where will his fundraising come from? What will his message be? What does he believe about non-land use issues? If he is elected, how will he get along with a County Executive and a County Council that he frequently disagreed with as Planning Chair? Will any of the county officials with whom he fought try to block him from being elected?

Delegate Craig Rice is a good campaigner with lots of endorsements. His state Legislative District (15) accounts for at least a third of Council District 2. But he is not a great fundraiser, does not know nearly as much about the county as Hanson and the candidacy of Poolesville Commission President Eddie Kuhlman could peel away some District 15 votes. Rice will have to work hard to beat Hanson. Sharon Dooley is a veteran civic activist who works hard for her community and on behalf of progressive causes. She has always had trouble raising money and now Hanson’s candidacy threatens to draw away a great deal of her environmentalist support.

More tomorrow!

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Primaries to Watch III, Part Five

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are the Final Two!

2. District 39 State Senate Challenge
Prior Rank: #4

Marc
The second of the three delegate/senator challenges. Saqib Ali may have finally declared his intentions to run against Senator Nancy King, but his efforts to unseat her have been ongoing since she was appointed to the State Senate in 2007. He has been relentless in challenging her on the issues and a bit personally as well, criticizing her after she made her own negative comments about Ali in the Gazette. I would not put much stock in the poll Adam highlighted. One Montgomery County Delegate told me they thought the name ID of all the state legislators , including their own, was well under 10% in their districts. That means at this point, a poll does not mean much. The poll questions were also not released.

Ali is a great politician and he beat an incumbent to get elected to the House in 2006. But unlike that race, he will likely have to do without the Apple Ballot and most other institutional support this go around. On the other hand, he will have his political skills and work ethic. I saw that work ethic in action at a recent event, as Ali mined the crowd for voters, giving them the "Johnson treatment," while King mostly chatted with elected officials.

The incumbent needs to get her campaign going and should not take this Ali challenge lightly. She hoped against hope that Ali would not run, but now she needs to get serious. One advantage she will likely have is the full weight of Senate President Mike Miller, and all the resources he possesses, to beat back Ali. That cannot win the race for her, but it will help.

Adam
Saqib Ali is a blogger’s best friend. He creates lots of things to write about, drives tons of traffic to this site and others and is NEVER, EVER boring. And now he is giving us the best present of all: a hell of a Senate race. Thanks, Saqib!

Unlike Lenett-Manno, this is a race of polar opposites. Ali is an enormously talented candidate who has mastered cyber-campaigning. He is progressive, charismatic and has a group of young volunteers who will run through walls for him. He also has tons of money. Ali is detested by the Annapolis establishment (which may help him) and his repeated public goading of King has turned off some party activists in his district. He is unlikely to get institutional support but won’t need it to run a high-quality campaign.

Nancy King is a steady Eddie who has patiently climbed up the ranks from the School Board. She is a moderate, friendly woman who is utterly without pretense and plays well in one-on-one contact with voters. She will have plenty of money, plenty of endorsements and will benefit from the support of the district’s Delegates. If Ali thinks King will react to his challenge with the hysterics of Ida Ruben or the inactivity of Jennie Forehand, he is mistaken. King is smart and shrewd and knows the district well. This will be a superb contest for voters and MPW readers alike.

1. District 17 State Senate Challenge
Prior Rank: #1

Marc
This race is actually getting a little boring because Cheryl Kagan has been doing the same thing the entire time: working hard, knocking on doors, meeting with people, and raising money. Of all the State Senate challenges, this looks to me like the most likely win for a challenger. As I have said before, the incumbent and Kagan seem to be running different races. Some key questions will be how much energy the District 17 slate and the Senate leadership put into this race. Forehand will need a big showing from both to withstand Kagan’s onslaught.

Adam
Cheryl Kagan is the county’s best challenger. Jennie Forehand is the county’s most complacent incumbent. Kagan never stops campaigning and Forehand has never really started. The lack of a Delegate challenger means that incumbent Delegates Kumar “Bad Boy” Barve, Luiz Simmons and Jim Gilchrist are likely to spend the summer lounging at the beach rather than passing out slate literature at the doors. Forehand will get the Apple Ballot, but unless she starts running a serious race, it may not matter much. If I don’t see more fight from the incumbent, I am going to demote this contest in our next review.

That’s it for now, folks!

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Primaries to Watch III, Part Four

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Four and Three!

4. Council At-Large
Prior Rank: #3

Marc
In 2006 there were thirteen candidates for County Council at-large, three of them incumbents. So far, there are just seven candidates with four of them incumbents.

Since we last wrote, Hans Riemer has entered the race and, I would argue, been the dominant challenger. He has been picking up lots of endorsements, holding events around the County, and creating lots of buzz. But Becky Wagner is still a potentially potent force despite her lackluster fundraising. Having Doug Duncan actively supporting her could be an influential endorsement. Jane de Winter also continues to make the rounds around the County. This race is about volunteers and mail because no individual can knock on the doors countywide.

Full disclosure, I am a public supporter of Hans Riemer and donated to him.

Adam
Let’s start with the incumbents. Nancy Floreen and George Leventhal are coming back. Both are proven vote-getters with plenty of money and almost certain access to the Apple Ballot. Marc Elrich has little money, good grass-roots support, union backing and probably no Post endorsement. Duchy Trachtenberg has LOTS of money, no grass-roots support, no union backing and will probably get a Post endorsement. I would take Elrich’s mix of strengths and weaknesses over Trachtenberg’s, but reasonable people could disagree.

The next big hurdle in this race is which challenger gets on the Apple Ballot along with Floreen, Leventhal and Elrich. Riemer is running the best campaign at the moment, but Wagner is a better public speaker and has a much longer track record of activity inside the county. Jane de Winter is probably not doing enough to match them. Whoever impresses the teachers as the most viable candidate will get the Apple and be in position to grab a seat in September.

3. District 19 State Senate Challenge
Prior Rank: #5 as “District 19 Madness”

Marc
Roger Manno and Mike Lenett have a personality clash that has exploded into a political one with Manno challenging Lenett. Both are hard working and have the ability to self-fund to some extent, so this race should be a political battle royale.

The question for Manno is how does he convince many of his supporters, who also voted for or supported Lenett in 2006, to turn on the incumbent? Most special interest groups and voters tend to stick with incumbents unless they have a real good reason not to. What good reason is Manno offering?

This is one of three districts where a sitting Delegate is challenging a sitting Senator of their own party. Although this seems like a natural enough move, the last time anyone I spoke to recalled it occurring was when District 18 Delegate Chris Van Hollen defeated incumbent Senator Patricia Sher in 1994.

Adam
Senator Mike Lenett is a white, forty-something lawyer from New York who has worked on the Hill and has been a down-the-line progressive. Delegate Roger Manno is a white, forty-something lawyer from New York who has worked on the Hill and has been a down-the-line progressive. What a choice for the voters!

This will be a GREAT race between two top-tier candidates, but each has a message problem. Lenett is accusing Manno of disloyalty to the party because he is challenging a sitting Democratic Senator, but Lenett did the same thing four years ago. Manno needs to explain why he is running against an opponent whose issue and voting record is nearly identical to his own. This could easily mutate into one of the nastiest contests the county has seen since, well, 2006.

We’ll have the Final Two tomorrow.

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Primaries to Watch III, Part Three

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Six and Five!

6. District 19 Delegate Open Seats
Prior Rank: #5 as “District 19 Madness”

Marc
With Hank Heller’s retirement, the first of what could be as many as three open Delegate seats has emerged. Many of the candidates in the mix have been running for at least a year, with Sam Arora, Bonnie Cullison, Hoan Dang, and Jay Hutchins leading the way. Interestingly, thus far none of the non-incumbent candidates ran in the crowded 2006 race where eight Democrats ran. Tom DeGonia recently announced his intention not to run.

It is too early to determine all of the dynamics of this race. Cullison is a shoo-in for the Apple Ballot and has the support of Doug Duncan. Sam Arora’s cash on hand of over $100,000 should frighten his opponents because that translates into a lot of mail and he has already knocked on hundreds of doors. This will be a horserace that is won at the mailbox and door step.

Adam
With Delegate Roger Manno moving up to challenge Senator Mike Lenett, Ben Kramer is the only incumbent Delegate left. Kramer may just run for County Council. If he stays put, he will almost certainly win re-election. He is a self-funder, has run for office four times and wiped out Nancy Navarro in Leisure World last year. A Manno-Kramer team in District 19 would be troublesome for Lenett.

The other candidates have strengths and weaknesses. None of them are well-known in the district. Cullison and probably Hutchins will get the Apple Ballot, but neither reported a lot of money in January. Sam “Hunk of the Hill” Arora has LOADS of money and energy but may not have a lot of institutional support. Hoan Dang has some money but needs to market himself to the entire district. The good news for all of them is that a growing number of open seats creates more opportunity to snag one of them.

Finally, Cullison’s campaign is memorable for the reason that it has had the worst website rollout in this cycle, bar none. MPW has had an active link to her site for a more than a week and here is what the voters have seen.





5. District 14 State Senate Challenge
Prior Rank: None

Marc
Delegate Karen Montgomery seems to have adopted the Herman Taylor attitude of move up or move out (the political ladder). She is challenging her district’s senator, Rona Kramer, from the left. Many left leaning interests have shopped for a challenger to Kramer, finally getting one with Montgomery after being turned down by several others and seeing Luedtke withdraw.

While Montgomery’s views are distinct from Kramer’s on issues like the death penalty, it remains to be seen how hard Montgomery is ready to run. She had a respectable $58,000 cash on hand in January, but she will need a lot more to keep up with Kramer. This could be a barn burner if Montgomery is willing to put the work in and draw some sharp distinctions from her opponent.

Adam
Liberals despise Senator Rona Kramer for her labor, environmental and business/regulatory records and have finally found someone to run against her. Montgomery is a credible challenger. She has served in the district just as long as Kramer. She will have plenty of progressive support. And our sources tell us that she has made the rounds of the district more than Kramer and has knocked on more doors than her in the past.

But this is Rona Kramer we’re talking about. She is one of the toughest members of a rich and ruthless family that has bullied its way through county politics for decades. Rona will chew on asphalt just to spit out the chunks at her enemies. And she has already previewed her campaign message to the Gazette, which will be, “I was fighting for you during the special session while Karen Montgomery was in China and missed every vote.” You can write this down in blood: Rona Kramer will fight like hell and spend more money than you can imagine to keep her seat. Montgomery and the liberals will have to bring it – HARD – if they want to have a chance at beating her.

We’ll have races Four and Three tomorrow.

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Primaries to Watch III, Part Two

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Here are races Eight and Seven!

8. District 14 Delegate Open Seats
Prior Rank: #6

Marc
The incumbents in District 14 do not lack for ambition as demonstrated by Herman Taylor’s quixotic run for Congress and Karen Montgomery’s decision to take on Rona Kramer (more on that later). Their decisions create two open seats.

Craig Zucker appears to be close to a sure thing for one of them. He has been running for eight years, has raised lots of money, and appears to have broad support. A second opening upsets his apple cart because folks who ruled out fighting him for one open seat are taking a second look.

The most public candidate thus far is teacher, occasional MPW guest blogger, and activist Eric Luedtke. We last saw Luedtke at the end of 2009 when he pulled the plug on a challenge to Kramer before it really started. What made him an attractive candidate then still holds true and he has the benefit of not challenging a self financing incumbent. Others will likely get into the race. As I have written before, the desire for a candidate that brings more diversity to District 14 is strong.

Full disclosure, I donated to Eric Luedtke.

Adam
Two open seats and two credible candidates. Yawn… I have nothing more to say about Craig “Lock” Zucker since he reported more than $50,000 in the bank before even formally starting his campaign. MCEA Board Member Luedtke will work hard and get lots of progressive backing for the other seat. Even though this district has the largest concentration of African Americans in the county along the US-29 corridor, I am hearing nothing to indicate that any candidate of color is getting in yet. Can someone wake me up if there’s another credible candidate of any kind?

The only interesting thing about this Delegate race is how it will interplay with the Senate race. I could see Zucker and Delegate Anne Kaiser supporting incumbent Rona Kramer and Luedtke supporting challenger Karen Montgomery. Or maybe not. Come on, people, give us something spicy to write about! Don’t make Saqib Ali do all the work!

7. District 16 Delegate Open Seat
Prior Rank: #8 as “Oldak vs. District 16”

Marc
Bill Bronrott’s resignation creates the fifth legislative vacancy in Montgomery County during this term. All indications are that the Central Committee will appoint a caretaker (that is certainly how my vote will be cast) and will let candidates for a four year term run without an incumbent in the fall.

It looks like two of the bigger name candidates, Reggie Oldak and Don Mooers, are taking a pass. But lots of hats are already in the ring including 2006 District 18 candidate Dan Farrington, Montgomery County Young Democrats president Scott Goldberg, Obama campaign guru Kyle Lierman, and possibly many others including Lise Van Susteren.

Another wrinkle in District 16 is that Bill Frick faces the same problem as Kirill Reznik in District 39: he will be before the voters for the first time. Frick has had strong fundraising and worked the district hard over the past three years, but he will have to work much harder than had all three incumbents run together.

Full disclosure, I am a Montgomery County Democratic Central Committeemember from District 16, cast a vote to appoint Bill Frick in 2007, and have donated to him.

Adam
Oldak’s decision not to get in deprives this contest of a top-tier challenger with a record of getting D16 votes. She received the Post endorsement last time and almost knocked off long-time incumbent Marilyn Goldwater, whose retirement created the opening for Frick. Now we have to look at everyone else.

The early favorite is Dan Farrington, who ran a great race in District 18 in 2006. Farrington received the Post and Gazette endorsements but lost narrowly to Jeff Waldstreicher, who had the Apple Ballot, for the open Delegate seat. The two were the hardest-working candidates in a good field and Farrington raised FAR more non-self-financed money than anyone else. I found Farrington to be so impressive that I sent him a $100 check immediately after seeing him at a campaign coffee that year. One problem he has is his opposition to the Purple Line’s proposed rail alignment, a position that helped him finish second in the Chevy Chase precincts but will not be so helpful in Bethesda. Still, if Farrington goes into high gear, the other candidates will have to bust their behinds to keep up.

As for the incumbents, Bill “Stud of the Statehouse” Frick will finish first and Susan Lee will finish second. Don’t prove me wrong, Bill!

We’ll have races Six and Five tomorrow.

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Primaries to Watch III, Part One

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

Now that the General Session is over, the politicians are getting into high gear for the election. And so is MPW! Once again, Marc and Adam are going to dissect the ten top primaries in MoCo. (You can see our prior assessments from September and December here.) Let the fun begin!

Marc
Off the list:

District 18 Challengers - There are two challengers running for Delegate in District 18 (Vanessa Atterbeary, and Dana Beyer). They are challenging a unified slate with a tough-as-nails Treasurer.

Congressional 4 - Donna Edwards dodged her toughest primary foe when Glenn Ivey declined to run. District 14 Delegate Herman Taylor is poised to announce, but it would take a minor miracle for him to make a dent.

Council 2 - Sharon Dooley has already entered the race. The big mystery is who she will be running against. Until incumbent Mike Knapp makes a decision about whether to run or retire, this race is largely unformed. Craig Rice’s potential candidacy would make for an exciting race but he would need to catch up on local issues and prepare to mount a more aggressive primary campaign than he would need in District 15.

Back on the list:

District 14 Senate

10. Hopkins vs. Berliner, Council District 1
Prior Rank: None

Marc
Ilaya Hopkins has been making the rounds and raising money in her bid to unseat first district Councilman Roger Berliner. Hopkins does have a shot at the Apple Ballot, which endorsed Berliner’s Republican opponent in 2006. Berliner’s biggest headlines this year were also somewhat embarrassing, as five votes on the Council passed him over for President.

Hopkins would be an extremely competitive candidate in an open seat race given her personality and civic experience. But challenging an incumbent is a very different scenario. Berliner will likely have far superior resources, name ID, and a record of accomplishment to run on that includes aggressive environmental positions like his recent carbon tax proposal. The Council’s unanimous votes for the White Flint sector plan and Purple Line also help inoculate Berliner from criticism on those major issues, which small parts of his constituency could be angry about.

Finally, Hopkins does not have a long history as a Democrat to rely on in a party primary the way Berliner does. Hopkins is a relatively new and welcome addition to the Democratic fold. On the other hand, Berliner has spent his entire career as a Democrat, including tours on Capitol Hill with liberal stalwarts such as Senator Howard Metzenbaum (OH) and Congressman Henry Waxman (CA). That history can make a difference in party primaries.

Adam
Berliner is a Democrat who runs with a big “D” on his chest and that makes Hopkins’s registration history relevant. Hopkins bought her current residence along with her husband on 2/19/98. She filled out a voter registration card as an unaffiliated voter on 9/5/01 and was formally registered with the county on 9/19/01. That means she did not vote in Maryland in the 1998 and 2000 elections. Hopkins voted in the 2002, 2004 and 2006 general elections. On 9/4/07, she changed her registration to Democrat and voted in the 2008 primary and 2008 general. Berliner registered as a Democrat in the county in 1991 and has been a consistent voter since then. We show both candidates’ initial voter registration applications below.



Hopkins has been running an able campaign against Berliner. She has a campaign manager (even if he was caught spying by the enemy), holds regular events, releases videos and has a nice first literature piece. She has a chance to pick up some union support. But Berliner started the year with almost $100,000 in the bank before Hopkins had a campaign account and it’s unclear if she has closed that gap. Even if Hopkins gets the Apple Ballot, Berliner’s occasional conflicts with the unions will probably earn him the Post endorsement. That means Berliner may have to commit a mistake of some kind for Hopkins to win. Judging by last year’s Council President fiasco, that possibility cannot be ruled out.

9. District 39 Delegate Open Seat
Prior Rank: #9

Marc
Montgomery Village Board of Directions Foundation President Bob Hydorn started running for Delegate even before an open seat emerged. His official announcement is on May 1st. This could be a problem for Delegate Kirill Reznik, who will be before the voters for the first time. At a minimum, almost 8,000 of the 29,000 registered Democrats in District 39 reside in Hydorn’s base of Montgomery Village. One District 39 activist told me that over 25% of the so-called “super Dems” in the District are in Montgomery Village. It is an active and organized area that Hydorn has worked before. That said, Reznik has been in office for three years and has spent that time wisely talking to individuals and groups throughout his district, advocating good legislation, and preparing for his first election.

Since a seat has now opened, a few other candidates could also enter the race. Adam has spent a lot of time talking about Shirley Rivadeneira. She would be a great candidate, but there is no chance she will run. She just resigned from the Central Committee for a White House job.

Full disclosure, I am Kirill Reznik’s campaign chair.

Adam
Hydorn was first out of the blocks. He has an organization and a big geographic base in the district. He is also a former Republican who has Republicans as his Treasurer and campaign manager. That creates an opening for other Democrats to get in. Two possibilities are party activist Francine Towbridge-Winston (who is receiving an award at the party’s spring ball) and MCPS administrator Juan Cardenas, who applied for the 2007 Delegate appointment ultimately won by Kirill Reznik. It is getting late to start a campaign from scratch and that gives Hydorn an advantage.

Surprisingly, I am more bullish on Reznik than his own campaign chair. Like the other appointees, Reznik is highly motivated to win an election in his own right. An open seat will just encourage him to work harder. That’s a mini-problem for Senate challenger Saqib Ali since more joint literature featuring incumbent Nancy King will be passed out on the doors. Delegate Charles Barkley has annoyed the House leadership but that won’t hurt him back home. In fact, if it matters at all, it may actually help!

We’ll have races Eight and Seven tomorrow.

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Primaries to Watch Update, Part Three

By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.

And now, the top three primaries in MoCo!

3. County Council At-Large
Prior rank: Fifth

Marc
This race is still largely unformed, but so far Becky Wagner, Guled Kassim, and Jane DeWinter have taken definitive steps towards running. One person who slipped through Adam’s survey of potential at-large candidates was former State Senator Ida Ruben. There are persistent rumors of her making a return to elected life with an at-large run.

There’s no question that the unions are shopping for at least one at-large challenger, with Duchy Trachtenberg the popular target. Becky Wagner appears to have broad teacher support based on some of the folks supporting and working for her, which given MCEA’s influence could be helpful.

It is worth noting that new Council President Nancy Floreen is an at-large member. She was the lowest winning vote getter in the 2006 primary (and the top vote getter in the general). The Council President is a high profile job and she obtained it in a high profile way. But given the budget deficit and difficult challenges ahead, her position may actually have a negative effect on her reelection. That said, at this point she is still a safe bet for re-election.

This race was at #5 in September. With stepped up activity by challengers, it has moved up the list in interest.

Adam
I heard rumors about Ida Ruben running for an at-large seat back in May while I was writing the Whispers of the At-Large Race series. But the spies said such mean things about her that I didn’t have the heart to print their remarks in the series. (And you know I’ve printed some pretty rough commentary from the spies in the past!) Even though the Gazette talked to Ruben in October, I see no evidence of an actual campaign going on. And I have heard no additional information about AFL-CIO Director of Civil Rights Roz Pelles, Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman, Delegate Ben Kramer or former District 4 candidates Cary Lamari and Chris Paladino. Robin Ficker is running for council, but he has not said whether he will run in District 4 or at-large.

The incumbents understand something that I’m not convinced all the challengers get: winning an at-large election in Montgomery County is extremely difficult. It takes vast sums of money just to build name recognition. All of the incumbents had attention-getting positions prior to their joining the council, and two of them (Marc Elrich and Duchy Trachtenberg) ran unsuccessfully prior to getting elected. If you want to have a shot in this kind of race, you really need to bring it – especially since all four incumbents are running again.

Here’s a tidbit: I am hearing persistent rumors of a movement to draft former District 5 candidate Hans Riemer for an at-large run. Riemer, an Obama campaign staffer who has also served as a Board Member of Action Committee for Transit, received mostly favorable reviews from our informants in June. If he got in, he would be able to raise some national money, capitalize on both local and national campaign experience and likely run on a smart-growth platform. A Riemer candidacy could be a game-changer in the at-large race.

2. Congress District 4: Edwards vs. Taylor vs. Ivey
Prior rank: Sixth

Marc
Donna Edwards stormed into the 4th Congressional District primary in 2006 and won the hearts and minds of many active progressives. She brought that energy back and more in 2008 and cleaned the clock of incumbent Al Wynn. But something has gone sour and many people have grumbled about Edwards. In September, I referred to these as below the radar complaints and lots of flack from pro-business and pro-Israel interests. From my conversations, dissatisfaction with Edwards has grown among her constituents.

That dissatisfaction has led not only Delegate Herman Taylor to run against her, but also encouraged Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey to “explore” the race. That squeezes the incumbent in both counties she represents, though it could also mean the anti-Edwards vote is divided. A key indicator of how seriously Congresswoman Edwards takes these challenges may be her next campaign finance report. Last quarter she raised less than $40,000 and had just $55,000 cash on hand, anemic numbers for a House incumbent.

This race was on the list in September as #6, mentioned as Edwards vs. Taylor. With Delegate Taylor in the race and State’s Attorney Ivey moving in that direction, it has grown more interesting and moved up the list.

Adam
I have two questions about this contest.

1. How many votes can Glenn Ivey get in Montgomery County? In 2008, MoCo accounted for 32% of all votes cast in the District 4 Democratic primary. Edwards received 67% of the vote in MoCo and 55% of the vote in Prince George’s. It is impossible to overstate the strong dislike that most MoCo voters have for the Prince George’s County government and any politicians who are associated with it. The jailhouse killing scandal may be more damaging to Ivey in MoCo than it is in Prince George’s, which is where it occurred.

2. I have yet to find anyone who believes that Herman Taylor will win this seat, but which of the other candidates does his presence hurt more? Will he split the anti-Edwards vote with Ivey? Or will he take away MoCo votes from Edwards? He may not do much of either if he is unable to raise enough money to be competitive.

One more fact to consider is that the Democratic primary vote in Prince George’s is over 60% female. That is bound to help Edwards in a contest against two men.

1. District 17 State Senate
Prior rank: First

Marc
This remains the most visible challenge in the county. Cheryl Kagan is running hard against longtime incumbent Jennie Forehand. Kagan is running so hard compared to Forehand that some people do not even realize they are running against each other. Forehand is, by all accounts, organizing her most serious campaign ever and not showing any signs of withdrawing. But it is difficult for anyone to match Kagan’s energy and intensity. Going forward, it will be interesting to see what contrasts Kagan draws with the incumbent and how much money she has raised come January. Forehand has a long record with the voters and should have institutional support from Annapolis that will provide lots of resources.

Adam
Jennie Forehand has three problems. First, no one out-hops the Energizer Bunny. That is not knocking Forehand – it’s just that any rival would have problems keeping up with Kagan’s go-everywhere-at-all-times work ethic. Second, Forehand doesn’t know how to run a modern campaign. She has not had a quality challenger since she was a Delegate and her team edged out Luiz Simmons in 1986 and Susan Hoffmann in 1990. Forehand has never defeated a high-caliber opponent one-on-one – an unusual fact for a politician with such a long history. (Of course, Kagan has never run in a one-on-one race.) Third, if no challengers to the District 17 Delegates show up, are they really going to knock on doors all summer for Forehand? Something tells me that a character like Kumar “Bad Boy” Barve would be more likely to be found downing margaritas at the beach!

That said, Forehand has a decades-old base inside the district and an incumbent’s advantages can never be discounted. This remains a marquee contest that could go either way.

We’re not done yet. We have one small item of business left for later today!

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