The Knives of Annapolis are getting longer every day for Peter Franchot. But L’enfant Terrible of Takoma Park may just stick it to his enemies before they stick it to him.
Peter Franchot was first elected to the House of Delegates in 1986. So what did he do? He immediately ran against then-freshman Congresswoman Connie Morella in a “notably aggressive” campaign. Franchot then embarked on a long career of press-hounding, glory-seeking and blood-feuding (especially with former pariah Delegate Dana Dembrow). After he was re-elected to his fifth term in 2002, Franchot became hungry again for higher office. And he soon found a convenient target: the increasingly erratic Comptroller, William Donald Schaefer. Franchot quickly began dogging Schaefer and capitalizing on his every mis-step. Here is just one example: shortly after Schaefer criticized a McDonald’s employee for not speaking English, Franchot organized a news conference at which Latino leaders and Democratic legislators denounced him. Franchot’s surprise win in 2006 was the product of four years of courtship of the labor, environmental and minority communities: the heart of Maryland’s left.
Franchot has never lost his edge and remains the favorite against any rival. Here’s why.
1. Franchot is the only statewide candidate for the office.
Prior to 2004, then-Delegate Franchot was known only in Montgomery County and mainly in his home turf of Takoma Park. But his campaign against Schaefer and his crusade against slots have turned him into a true statewide figure. Only Governor O’Malley and the two U.S. Senators are better known than Franchot. Jim Smith, Brian Feldman and almost every other possible contender are local or regional candidates at this point who must work to build name recognition outside their home areas.
2. Franchot has never stopped running for Comptroller.
Consider this: since being elected, Franchot has raised a total of $1.1 million – nearly equal to the $1.6 million he raised during the previous four years. He has retired nearly all of the $750,000 home mortgage debt he incurred in his run and has spent $223,767 on salaries for campaign staff through 10/24/08. That’s right – he has been paying campaign staff ever since his election. One of his salary recipients was none other than Scott Arceneaux, the former campaign manager for Doug Duncan who later headed Marylanders United to Stop Slots. Arceneaux received $15,000 from Franchot in January and February 2008 before joining the anti-slots campaign (and launching the ad that was so hated by Annapolis Democrats).
3. Franchot’s press skills far exceed any opponent.
This is obvious but also extremely important. Franchot understands how to work the press better than any other politician in Maryland. He is always ready with a great quote and is constantly creating a story – exactly the things that reporters love. Do Democratic primary voters really care that he has offended Big Daddy? Of course not – all they know is his name. And that is more than the vast majority of them know about any of his potential opponents.
4. Franchot can avoid responsibility for any problems.
The leaders in Annapolis have been making an unusually large number of tough decisions over the last two years – raising taxes, cutting spending, calling for slots – and there is more to come. But Franchot need not sully himself in the dirty details of it. He can merely stand on the outside and criticize the unhappy outcomes. Are you a moderate Democrat in the Baltimore suburbs who disliked the special session’s tax hikes? Peter Franchot, who has criticized the special session since Day One, agrees with you. Are you a liberal in Montgomery County who dislikes spending cuts? Peter Franchot, who called for a blue-ribbon commission instead, agrees with you. Are you a slots opponent? Of course, Peter Franchot is on your side. Who cares about whether Franchot has genuine alternatives for closing the state’s budget deficits? Such tactics infuriate Franchot’s enemies (especially Big Daddy) but they make for great politics.
5. Franchot’s strength in the Washington suburbs is tough to overcome.
In the 2006 primary election, Franchot received more votes from Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties (111,912) than did Janet Owens (60,088) and William Donald Schaefer (38,154) combined. No Baltimore-area politician will be able to beat Franchot in the state’s two largest Democratic jurisdictions. As of 10/31/08, there were 589,064 registered Democrats in Baltimore City and Baltimore County vs. 696,537 in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. Another fact: of the 202,122 newly registered Democrats between 10/31/06 and 10/31/08, 46% came from Montgomery and Prince George’s. Doug Gansler’s victory over Stu Simms proved that a candidate from the Washington suburbs could finally defeat a Baltimore candidate in a statewide race. Peter Franchot, who currently has more statewide name recognition than does Gansler, could very well prove that again.
6. His potential rivals may already be too late.
Franchot effectively started his race against Schaefer at least two years prior to election day. He needed that time to build his case against the incumbent and form alliances outside his home jurisdiction. Neither Jim Smith nor Brian Feldman nor anyone else has begun a similar effort – yet. If anyone wants to take on Franchot, they must obtain the support of the Governor and Big Daddy and start raising money and making the rounds as soon as possible. It will take that long to mount a winning challenge against one of the most hyper-competitive campaigners the state has seen in a long time.
And Franchot’s fanatical nature may be his greatest edge. One of my informants told me, “I’m done betting against Peter Franchot. I’m not saying he’s a lock to win. But every time I’ve bet against him, I’ve been wrong.” Another longtime political observer told me, “A race against Franchot is not for the faint of heart; he is fearless and will go down fighting.”
Peter Franchot’s next election campaign is well underway. Phase One was his opposition to the unpopular special session. Phase Two was the anti-slots campaign. Franchot has already established his message: Don’t Trust Annapolis Politicians. He will use it against anyone backed by the Governor and Mike Miller. He will argue that his opponent – whoever it is – is a “machine politician” under control by “gambling interests.” He will implore the Democratic primary electorate, a group well to the left of the general electorate that voted for slots, to retain him as its protector. Franchot's campaign will claim that only he can be trusted to look out for the poor, the weak and the victims of poorly-conceived tax hikes and spending cuts.
And so there are many long knives waiting for Peter Franchot in Annapolis. But the Comptroller just may have the longest – and the bloodiest – knife of them all.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Long Knives for Franchot, Part Four
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Long Knives for Franchot, Part Three
Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith is a logical choice for Governor O’Malley and Senate President Mike Miller to launch a challenge against hated Comptroller Peter Franchot. But what if Smith decides not to run? Is District 15 Delegate Brian Feldman the answer? We asked our spies and, as usual, they did not disappoint.
Brian Feldman is a two-term Delegate from Potomac. When he first ran for the House in 2002, three of the four members of the district delegation (Senator Jean Roesser and Delegates Jean Cryor and Richard LaVay) were Republicans. Democratic Delegate Mark Shriver had just lost a Congressional primary to then-District 18 Senator Chris Van Hollen. In the general election, Feldman finished just 683 votes behind Cryor, then a two-term veteran and the sole surviving Republican. In his second term, Feldman earned an Economic Matters subcommittee chairmanship and became Montgomery County’s House Delegation Chair in 2007. In our MPW poll, Feldman was voted the 15th-most influential elected official in Montgomery County.
Feldman is an unusual figure in this county because he has admirers across our political spectrum. Moderates and liberals alike praise his intelligence, patience and hard work. In fact, despite my best efforts, I have not located anyone who despises him. (Trust me – that is rare for a politician.) As a CPA and a tax lawyer, he is extremely well qualified to be Comptroller. His reputation as a consensus builder would make him an attractive alternative to the Governor and Big Daddy, who above all do not want more Franchot-esque eruptions.
So does Brian Feldman have what it takes to defeat Peter Franchot? Here is what four of my best-connected informants have to say:
Spy #1:Basically, Brian has to tap into the vast hatred that Peter has in the Democratic Party right now. Also, Jim Smith has to NOT run. So, yes, Brian could win. If Jim Smith did not run, O’Malley would gladly put Brian (or any reasonable person) on his ticket. Being from Montgomery County, Brian would be best. Brian would not need to raise as much money as Peter, he would just need to be on Martin's Team.
Spy #2:
One other thing, Brian could develop a really good argument -- governmental efficiency. He could expand the portfolio of the Comptroller to include internal management audit control, sort of an “Inspector General” type function. He could make a lot of hay by training his sights on specific examples of governmental waste starting with the Comptroller’s Office. This could be embarrassing for Peter. He could also go after auditing abuse - always a perennial favorite.
Of course, Peter is still the favorite to win because the voters like him. But the election is still a long ways off.I can’t believe it really. It certainly is true that Brian has a good background for it, given his time in the legislature and the fact that he's a lawyer and a CPA. For a legislator he's a better than average fundraiser, but would have to step it up big time for a statewide run.
Spy #3:
No doubt Peter has angered many in the Democratic establishment, but how many of those people will really pony up with time and money to help Feldman?
Peter did a lot to grease the skids a few years prior to his run by rallying up the progressives. Brian would need to make tons of friends and can’t just be the anti-Peter.
Now I tend to be a skeptic, but I'm guessing it’s just a crazy rumor, and if I were Brian, I wouldn’t confirm or deny it. I would just smile and be glad that people were talking about me in a good light. The more you get talked about in political circles about “big” things, the slightly more likely that good things happen.Personally, while I think Feldman would be the best fit for Comptroller based on his background, experience, smarts and temperament, I’d like to see him as Speaker, Majority Leader, or Economic Matters Chairman -- and I don’t think any of these are out of the question. He presents a strong viable alternative to some others seen as being in the running for those spots -- and his leadership talents are very, very strong. I don’t think that it hurts Feldman to be mentioned in the article. In fact, I think it helps brand him as a viable statewide leader overall, and gets people thinking about him for a near to mid term leadership spot.
Spy #4:O’Malley should be careful about encouraging challengers to Franchot for Comptroller, since it could just persuade Franchot to run against O'Malley.
Brian Feldman has many supporters in the county who believe he could move up in Annapolis. They would hate to see him leave politics prematurely. But if he actually became Comptroller, he would excel in the job. Would the voters understand that? Not if Peter Franchot has his way. And the incumbent Comptroller is not done yet – not by a long shot. We conclude in Part Four.
Feldman is one of several bright, smart, handsome young men from Montgomery County who don’t want to wait forever to move up the ladder but may have to wait for a long time, since Chris Van Hollen has to wait to run for Senator Mikulski’s seat and Rob Garagiola has to wait to run for Chris Van Hollen’s seat.
Basically I think it would be a mistake for Brian to give up his House seat for a long-shot statewide race right now, unless he’s really prepared to end his political career at this relatively early stage.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
What Does Weaver's Departure from Franchot's Office Mean? (Updated)
Maryland Moment is reporting that Comptroller Peter Franchot's Chief of Staff David Weaver has been hired for the same position by Congressman Chris Van Hollen. This is big news but its full meaning is unclear.
David Weaver is one of Montgomery County's smartest and most-respected political operatives. He served as Doug Duncan's spokesman for 12 years and ran a media-friendly political operation for Franchot. My sources singled out Weaver for special praise in my Long Knives for Franchot series, which I have now had to edit. “He’s the last person I would want to go up against,” said one spy who has known Weaver for a long time.
Weaver was one of Franchot's biggest weapons but now he is gone. A staff job for Chris Van Hollen is definitely attractive. But is there more to this? Does David Weaver know something that the rest of us don't?
Update: Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16) released this statement:David Weaver is one of the most talented and decent people I have ever met in my three decades in politics and public policy. I spent nearly eight years on Capitol Hill as an aide to the previous Democrat who represented Maryland's 8th Congressional District -- Michael D. Barnes. I know from that experience and from a decade representing part of the 8th District in the General Assembly that Congressman Van Hollen and the people he represents will be extremely well served with David Weaver as Chief of Staff.
Here's what some of our undercover informants had to say:David is going back to his legislative roots. He’s a smart guy and will thrive on the Hill. Leaving “Peter the Isolated” for “Chris the Hero” is clearly a big step up for him.
Weaver was much too smart to be working for the Comptroller. Guess he had to because there wasn't anything else at the time, but it is a huge win for Van Hollen to get someone of his caliber.
David has outstanding political instincts and has likely concluded that the long-term upside potential of hitching his wagon to the Franchot show horse is exceedingly limited while the downside exposure of being tied to, and tainted by, this guy is huge.
David Weaver is very talented in managing both political and communications strategies. Despite what many think, they are separate disciplines. David is unusual in that he can do both at a very, very high level. This is a real loss for Peter Franchot. Peter's formula for success relies on generating ink and stirring the political pot with a populist message. It's a house of cards, a bubble that so far he's been able to stay on top of. I wonder if David's departure is the first step in the bursting of the Franchot bubble. Never count Peter out, but this is a big loss. If you're Weaver and Van Hollen calls, why wouldn't you take the job? As head of DCCC and liaison to the White House, Van Hollen will be right in the middle of the political intrigue at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
Long Knives for Franchot, Part Two
Comptroller Peter Franchot has steadily expanded his enemies list from Senate President Mike Miller to Governor Martin O’Malley to the General Assembly as a whole to the state Democratic Party. Not even his controversial predecessor, William Donald Schaefer, went this far. He is virtually begging for a primary challenge. But who could take him out?
The most-commonly mentioned possible candidate is Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith. Smith’s political career goes back to 1978, when he first became a Baltimore County Council Member, and paused for 16 years while he was a Circuit Court judge. In 2001, Smith resigned his judgeship to run for County Executive, beating a Republican with 56% of the vote while Bob Ehrlich carried the county in his successful campaign for Governor. Smith was then re-elected with 77% of the vote in the primary and 66% in the general election. He has attracted support from business, labor and many other players in his county and reported a campaign balance of $495,348.07 last January despite being term-limited.
Smith is a particularly attractive Comptroller challenger for the Governor for several reasons. First, Smith’s Chief of Staff is none other than Peter O’Malley, the Governor’s brother. Second, Smith’s age (68 in 2010) will likely prevent him from having ambitions for higher office, which will not earn the resistance of the current Governor’s hopeful successors. Third, Smith can be counted on to not rock the boat of the O’Malley-Miller-Busch-State Democratic team. Finally, Smith’s long record of success in Baltimore County, historically a swing jurisdiction, leads some to believe that he will be a strong centrist candidate statewide.
But there are two problems with Smith as a challenger. First, he underwent triple-bypass open heart surgery in August. Does he have the stamina to barnstorm across Maryland for more than a year? Second, Smith seems temperamentally ill-suited to a contentious matchup with the hypercompetitive Franchot. Check out this 2004 account from Baltimore Magazine posted on Smith’s own website: Jim Smith is a terrible politician. “He's not a gifted, natural politician -- nobody would deny that,” says Sun reporter Andy Green, who covered Smith for almost two years. “Which is not to say he's a bad county executive…”
These may be admirable traits on the part of Jim Smith, but is a person who is a “terrible politician” truly ready for a doomsday showdown with ultra-political Peter Franchot?
Smith admits he hates the political side of the job. “So much of politics is gamesmanship for the sake of the game, not for the responsibility of governing,” says the 62-year-old Democrat.
If Smith decides to run, the Governor and Big Daddy will clear the field for him and make sure he has the resources to compete. But what if Smith stays out? Then another challenger will have to be found. And the Post has identified such a potential candidate: District 15 Delegate Brian Feldman. More in Part Three.
Monday, December 15, 2008
Long Knives for Franchot, Part One
In the aftermath of the slots campaign, Comptroller Peter Franchot is unquestionably the most hated man in Annapolis. As I write this, the preponderance of insider speculation is that it will be difficult for Governor Martin O’Malley and Senate President Mike Miller to resist the temptation to run someone against him. But if they try to get rid of Franchot, can they succeed?
It was not always this way. In 2006, Franchot’s predecessor, former Governor William Donald Schaefer, had become an embarrassment to the state Democrats. Schaefer’s comment that AIDS patients “brought it on themselves,” his tirade against McDonald’s workers who did not speak English and his blatant ogling of an aide to Governor Ehrlich fueled a barn-burning three-way election. Then-Delegate Peter Franchot, the surprise winner, had a reputation for going his own way in Annapolis but few expected him to behave as badly as Schaefer.
As soon as he took office, Franchot made clear he wanted to be a player in ways that exceeded the historical role of the Comptroller. He quickly proclaimed himself the state’s “Chief Fiscal Officer,” started showing up at news conferences everywhere and described himself as “an independent, fiscal watchdog who's a progressive.” That drew a quick rebuke from Big Daddy, who said he was elected to serve as a “tax collector, not as a policymaker.”
As long as Franchot’s battles were primarily against Miller, he benefitted. Big Daddy is the most feared man in Annapolis but he is not particularly well-liked, especially in the House of Delegates. Many legislators secretly enjoyed Franchot’s tweaks of Miller, something that few others dare to do. Some were willing to overlook Franchot’s behavior as the actions of a long-time gadfly. About a year ago, one Baltimore-area lawmaker told me, “That’s just Peter being Peter.”
But then Franchot started to go after Governor O’Malley, criticizing the 2007 special session, taunting the Governor over Montgomery County school construction money and demanding that the Governor “call off the attack dogs” during his anti-slots campaign. That made Annapolis legislators nervous. The office of Maryland Governor is unusually powerful by U.S. standards, especially over budgetary matters. Few legislators are interested in direct confrontation with the Governor and many became wary of getting too close to Franchot.
Franchot broadened his attacks during the slots campaign, when he told Prince George’s County church leaders, “We see what comes out of Annapolis... we know we can't trust them.” The anti-slots ad slamming “Annapolis Politicians” made matters worse. But the breaking point came when the state Democrats refused to let Franchot speak at their 2008 gala, prompting him to rant that the party “has become indebted to the national gambling industry.”
Franchot’s continued escalation of hostilities has earned him legions of enemies. One of my better-placed sources tells me:Beyond the slots issue where Peter at least arguably took a principled position (regardless of his contrary position on the same issue a decade earlier) and beyond his daily shots at the Democratic Governor which serve no clear cut purpose other than to get Peter’s name in the paper, many including myself are perplexed by the self-serving shots he’s now begun taking at the Democratic State Legislature. If this continues during the difficult upcoming Session, I think the chances of a serious primary challenge go way up. If he tones it down, the chances of such a challenge go down.
Peter Franchot is capable of many things, but “toning it down” does not appear to be one of them. That means he may very well attract a primary challenge. More on that in Part Two.
