Why Incumbents Lose, Part Five

Most incumbents lose because of themselves, but a few have the bad luck to face great challengers. Let’s look at the upstarts more closely.

Every challenger thinks he or she is top-notch, but very few of them are. We define a great challenger as having the following four qualities.

1. Well-financed
A challenger may not have more money than an incumbent, but a successful one needs enough to compete.

2. Pre-existing base of support in the district
Fly-by-night challengers to incumbents almost always lose. The best ones start off with a base of supporters and volunteers that can match, or even surpass, the incumbent.

3. Knows how to exploit incumbent’s problems
Most incumbents have vulnerabilities. Great challengers know how to expose them and use them to their advantage.

4. Works HARD
Incumbents almost always have money, institutional support and some base inside the district. Great challengers counter their advantages with sheer hard work, often over long periods of time.

Here are the best challengers from Montgomery County over the last four election cycles, along with why they were so special. Note the occasional input from our fabled spy network.

4. Rob Garagiola, defeated Republican Senator Jean Roesser (D-15) in 2002

Twenty-nine-year-old Rob Garagiola seemed cast by Hollywood as an ambitious, energetic young politician. The 2001 Montgomery County Democrat of the Year and former paratrooper started campaigning against the 72-year-old incumbent over a year before the general election. But the race almost did not happen as District 17 Delegate Cheryl Kagan was nearly redistricted into District 15 for a challenge to Roesser. When that fell through, Garagiola was off to the races for a clean shot at the incumbent.

In 2002, District 15 was a swing district. Roesser, a Republican, had knocked off incumbent Democrat Larry Levitan in 1994. Partisan dynamics did not guarantee Garagiola victory in a good year nationally for the GOP. So he knocked on tons of doors, poured in nearly $200,000 in self- and family-financing and beat the incumbent by just 755 votes, or two percentage points. Garagiola’s work ethic still shows in his excellent fundraising and ascension up the leadership ladder in Annapolis.

3. Phil Andrews, defeated County Council Member William Hanna (D-3) in 1998

Andrews, once a high-level amateur tennis player and then the director of Common Cause, is Montgomery County’s undisputed champion of door knocking. He put that skill to good work in defeating a four-term incumbent in a district race. Andrews, who is a former MCGEO member(!), also enjoyed substantial labor support in his first win. That is ironic considering that he is now one of labor’s greatest enemies in the county. Then and now, Andrews refuses PAC and developer contributions.

Spy: Long out of step politically with his district, Bill Hanna had almost been defeated more than once. In a three-way race, though, the anti-Bill votes were divided. In 1998, the field was just two candidates. Phil hustled the progressive votes and ran circles around Hanna.

Spy: Phil had already run an energetic, but unsuccessful campaign for Council at-large in 1994, so he knew a lot about campaigning. The district race was better suited to his strengths as a likable, retail, door-to-door campaigner. His youthful energy and good looks worked to his advantage against the then 77-year-old Bill Hanna, who had developed a reputation as a curmudgeon and a bit of an eccentric. Hanna had alienated labor unions (which Andrews would also eventually do) and had particularly alienated the gay community by opposing domestic partner benefits, which also hurt him among liberals.

2. Jamie Raskin, defeated Senator Ida Ruben (D-20) in 2006

It is certainly true that Senator Ruben, who had spent over thirty years in Annapolis, self-destructed in 2006. But Jamie Raskin was ideally suited to capitalize on her problems. Smart, liberal and devoid of pretense, Raskin was able to bring together Ruben’s enemies (including supporters of banished former Delegate Dana Dembrow) with District 20’s diehard leftists to engineer a stunning coup of Ruben. Raskin had an all-star campaign team boasting David Moon, Ryan O’Donnell, Miti Figueredo, Rebecca Lord and Jonathan Shurberg and a seemingly limitless army of volunteers. He even nearly equaled the incumbent’s fundraising, collecting $227,542 vs. Ruben’s $253,202. Despite making the Apple Ballot, Ruben was blown out by 33 points - the worst performance of any MCEA-endorsed incumbent in that cycle.

1. Chris Van Hollen, defeated Senator Patricia Sher (D-18) in 1994 and Congresswoman Connie Morella in 2002

How many Maryland politicians have knocked off a State Senator, a Member of Congress and a Kennedy? Just one: Chris Van Hollen.

Van Hollen’s 2002 campaign for Congress, during which he defeated District 15 Delegate Mark Shriver in the primary and incumbent Republican Congresswoman Connie Morella in the general, is well-known throughout the county and is even the subject of a book. But he would probably have never made it to Congress if he had not already knocked off another incumbent eight years before. Van Hollen was first elected to the House of Delegates from District 18 in 1990. Four years later, he ran against Senator Patricia Sher, a freshman in the upper chamber who had spent three terms in the House.

Spy: This is one of the most interesting races. Van Hollen was a Sher protegé - she picked him from a crowded field of aspirants to run on her “pro-choice” slate when she challenged longtime incumbent Margaret “Peg” Schweinhaut for the District 18 Senate seat in 1990. But then the young, ambitious Van Hollen bit the hand that fed him and took advantage of District 18’s history of volatility to take out his patron.

Spy: This was a combination of the self-destructing incumbent (see Ruben vs. Raskin, 2006) running into the ambitious, smart, hard-working young challenger.

Spy: Chris out-organized Patty and was already coasting to a big victory. She then shot herself in the foot in a Wash Post interview. Chris won huge and brought in newcomer Sharon Grosfeld on his coattails.

Spy: My most distinct memory of the campaign was this: Chris was already leading in the perception of those following the race (I don’t know if there were any polls), when Patti shot herself in the foot, head, and all parts of her body. During an interview with a TV station, she said in effect that “all the blacks in Annapolis are corrupt and on the take.” Whoa! Patti was not racist, but that stupid statement clinched it for Chris. She doubled her error by claiming she thought the conversation was off the record. Oy!

Spy: Sher did her best to vote pro-business and annoy EVERY municipal official in her district. Also, there was her racist comment at the end of the campaign. Chris just pointed all this out. Also, Chris smartly (does he ever make mistakes?) chose NOT to build a slate against the incumbent delegates (thereby assuring that they would not campaign).

The end result of all of the above was an incredible 50-point blowout for the then-35-year-old Delegate over the Annapolis veteran. Van Hollen’s ability to combine ground game, message, discipline and organization makes him both an outstanding candidate and a great adviser to other candidates, as national Democrats were pleased to find out in 2008. Maryland’s incumbent U.S. Senators better hope that he never runs against them.

So what are the lessons for incumbents from this series? First, if you are not lazy, perform your job decently and lack lots of enemies, you will very likely be re-elected. As one of our informants says, “Basically, if you are an incumbent, and you knock on doors, don’t offend anyone, vote the wrong way or pick your nose (in public) you win.” But as we have seen above, every election cycle generates at least one great challenger. Say a prayer every night that he or she is not living in your district!

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Why Incumbents Lose, Part Four

Get ready for some fun. Here’s a great category of losing incumbents:

Incumbents with Enemies

Ever wonder why so many politicians are so bland? It’s because they’re being smart. Politicians with big mouths get lots of enemies, and at least a couple knives are bound to hit the mark.

Republican District 39 Delegates Barrie Ciliberti and Mathew Mossburg, Defeated by Democrats Charles Barkley, Paul Carlson and Joan Stern in 1998

District 39 was created in Montgomery County in 1994. Originally, the district went all the way to the northern county line. Its first delegation was 100% Republican. That would not last.

Spy: The Dems ran a GREAT campaign (in spite of Joan). Of the three GOP candidates, none campaigned seriously, one was probably nuts and Mossburg had serious baggage (for example, he missed more votes than the entire Montgomery County Delegation combined).

Spy: The Central Committee formed a committee called the Democratic Upper Montgomery Project (DUMP) to “dump” Republicans in Districts 15 and 39. The committee was chaired by former Washington Redskin and discouraged gubernatorial aspirant Ray Schoenke, who gleefully took on the Republicans in letters to the editors, op-eds and strategic mailings. The Republicans returned fire at Schoenke, allowing Barkley, Carlson and Stern to run a positive, upbeat campaign and win the election.

Delegate Dana Dembrow (D-20), Defeated in 2002

Dana Dembrow was first elected in 1986 and soon began battling the rest of his delegation, including Senator Ida Ruben and Delegates Sheila Hixson and Peter Franchot. Franchot is a man who knows something about feuds. If he was locked in solitary confinement, he would likely start a feud with his mattress. But Dembrow’s biggest enemy was Ruben, and she would engineer his takedown in 2002. Strangely enough, Dembrow would rematerialize briefly as a Carroll County Commissioner candidate in 2006, but he did not make it to the election.

Spy: This one has all the elements of great literature, perhaps a Greek tragedy. The rivalry between District 20 Senator Ida Ruben and Delegate Dana Dembrow paralleled the rivalry between Captain Ahab and Moby Dick (except it’s not clear who was the captain and who was the whale). The two of them hated each other with a passion and drove each other to distraction during 16 years of joint service to the district until Dembrow finally made a crucial error. One sad night in April 2002, likely under the influence of alcohol, he got into a conflagration with his wife Suzette. The exact circumstances of the conflagration remain unclear. Suzette Dembrow ultimately refused to testify, Dana Dembrow was acquitted of the charge of assault, and the Dembrows reconciled and lived happily together until Suzette’s tragic death from a stroke (unrelated to the allegation of domestic abuse) four years later...

Nonetheless, Suzette made a panicked phone call to 911, the transcript of which was released to the public by Ruben’s campaign. Dembrow couldn’t shake the image of a wife-beater in the county’s most liberal district and ended up losing his seat to lackluster challenger Gareth Murray, who was elected on a slate with Ruben allies Sheila Hixson and Peter Franchot. Murray failed to hold onto the seat four years later, when Ruben herself was knocked out by Jamie Raskin. Much of the organizational energy behind Raskin’s campaign came from the many Dembrow supporters who blamed Ruben for Dembrow's defeat. The case could be made that the Ruben-Dembrow blood feud ended both of their political careers.

Delegate Joan Stern (D-39), Defeated in 2006

Stern was part of the District 39 Democratic Delegate challenger team that took out an all-Republican Delegate delegation in 1998. But after two terms, her colleagues became fed up with her and kicked her off their slate. She had the misfortune of drawing a talented challenger, the now-famous Saqib Ali, who got onto the Apple Ballot and smoked her by 1,238 votes.

Spy: Joan alienated and annoyed too many people. She was somewhat eccentric and not liked by her colleagues.

Spy: When her district mates dumped her from the team after serving with her for several years, the stage was set for the upset. When the teachers followed up with an apple ballot endorsement of her opponent, her fate was probably sealed.

Spy: Joan was not well-liked in her district or in Annapolis. First impressions matter, and her reputation never recovered from her first piece of legislation, a bill to require Maryland restaurants to allow customers to dine with their dogs (Joan was single and very fond of her dog). Joan was also unfairly criticized for taking on the obesity issue before it was widely perceived as a public health epidemic. She campaigned hard for a third term, but Saqib campaigned harder.

Senator Ida Ruben (D-20), Defeated by Jamie Raskin in 2006

Why does District 20 have all the great rivalries, blowups and feuds? Is it the raging tradition of hyper-activism in Takoma Park and inside-the-Beltway Silver Spring? Is it the unending conflict among competing species of communists, socialists, anarchists and other “ists?” Is it the volatile personalities that are drawn to such a boiling soup of liberalism? Maybe it is all of the above.

Ida Ruben is a woman of big personality, big grudges and lots and lots of enemies. In the wake of her decapitation of rogue Delegate Dana Dembrow, the Dembrow refugees formed an unholy alliance with super-liberals who had never liked Ruben. Their rival of choice: civil liberties professor and lawyer Jamie Raskin. Raskin was a great candidate with legions of volunteers and a superstar organization led by David Moon, but Ruben lost this race with mistake after mistake. First, she went after students at Blair High School for writing a school newspaper endorsement of Raskin. (Never mind that the students were not old enough to vote.) Next, she targeted a Takoma Park ice cream shop that named a flavor “Askin’ 4 Raskin.” When the ice cream was given out for free on the Fourth of July, she wanted it to be recorded as a campaign contribution. Finally, she released a flyer alleging that “Jamie Raskin helped put George W. Bush into office,” prompting MPW founder David Lublin to denounce it as “utterly ridiculous drivel.” District 20 voters felt the same and Raskin won by 33 points.

None of the above says much about the challengers. We’ll pick out a few great ones in Part Five.

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Why Incumbents Lose, Part Three

What explains the handful of incumbent losses in Montgomery County since 1994? Here’s another reason that applies to some races.

Lazy Incumbents

Now we know that Annapolis is a great place to sit back and gain weight, but incumbents should not get fat and happy in their districts. Otherwise, they might wind up like these former officeholders.

Democratic Senator Larry Levitan (D-15), Defeated in 1994 by Republican Jean Roesser

Levitan was a five-term powerhouse in Annapolis. He thought that would help him coast to victory against a Republican challenger in a swing district. It didn’t.

Spy: While this outcome was no doubt primarily attributable to the Republican tidal wave of ‘94, the other reality is that Levitan didn’t do anything to help himself, including actually campaigning for the seat.

Spy: Like many powerful incumbents, Larry - who chaired the Budget & Taxation Committee - grew lazy and complacent and took his constituents for granted. 1994 was a watershed Republican year in which Newt Gingrich took control of the Congress and disappointment with the failed Clinton health plan made Democrats apathetic. District 15 has more Republican and Independent voters than most other districts and was ready for the Republican message of change.

Spy: Larry got lazy. Took the race for granted, despite a TON of us pleading with him. Thought B&T would protect him. It didn’t. He now makes $$$$ as a lobbyist.

Council Member William Hanna (D-3), Defeated in 1998 by Phil Andrews

Four-term incumbent Bill Hanna was Vice-President in an election year, about to become Council President for a record fourth time. But insurgent Phil Andrews had other ideas.

Spy: The young, hard working, door knocking challenger with the Common Cause background defeats the older, blustery, somewhat out of touch incumbent. This was a match-up of opposites in more sense than one: political philosophy (yes, Phil used to be more liberal), campaign style (Hanna didn’t campaign) and unions (in those days, Phil was a friend of the unions).

Spy: Tireless methodical campaigner beats grouchy old guy (who does not campaign at all). This is what would happen between Kagan and Forehand if Forehand does not door knock (she will door knock, however).

Delegate Leon Billings (D-18), Defeated in 2002

Billings was appointed to replace his wife shortly after she was re-elected in 1994. In 1998, he benefitted from a united incumbent slate that was challenged only by school board member Ana Sol Gutierrez, who finished a distant fourth. In 2002, Delegate Sharon Grosfeld ran for Senate, causing a ton of quality challengers to get in for the open seat. Billings, who had never won a tight race before, was knocked out by Gutierrez and county government staffer Rich Madaleno.

In addition to never being much of a campaigner, Billings was victimized by possibly the weirdest Apple Ballot ever. District 18 Delegate John Hurson was redistricted into District 20 and gained the teachers’ endorsement there. But Hurson was later put back into District 18, where the teachers had already endorsed Billings, Gutierrez and Madaleno. So the teachers named four Delegate candidates on their 2002 Apple Ballot, two of whom were challengers, and that deprived Billings of a critical incumbent advantage. He lost to Gutierrez by just 217 votes.

Spy: Leon didn’t campaign very hard. In politics, you take nothing for granted. Besides, Leon came across as mean, nasty and arrogant – not very endearing qualities in a local elected official.

Spy: Leon reportedly told his friends that if the voters of District 18 didn’t already know him, he sure wasn’t going to bother to remind them who he was. So he did no door-knocking, sent no mail and spent most of the summer at his Delaware beach house. It was one of the most striking “non-campaigns” in recent county political history.

Delegate Gareth Murray (D-20), Defeated in 2006

Murray benefitted from incumbent Dana Dembrow’s spectacular blowup in 2002 but did little in office and nothing during the following campaign. He was one of just two incumbent Delegates to not make the Apple Ballot in 2006. He finished seventh of seven in his re-election try, maybe the worst performance ever by a Montgomery County incumbent.

Spy: Gareth was a lackluster Delegate and a lackluster candidate who built no base, made few friends, had little visibility in his district, raised little money and hardly campaigned at all.

Spy: Gareth pulled a disappearing act. He pulled off a surprising win in 2002, didn’t work for his re-election, and during his term in office he didn’t do anything noteworthy. His re-election campaign was similar to a newcomer’s low budget, low effort campaign – and the result was the same.

Spy: If you raise no money, don’t put up one yard sign and never do any campaigning, it’s tough to win.

Why else do incumbents lose? We’ll see in Part Four.

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Why Incumbents Lose, Part Two

Incumbents don’t go down very often, but they do go down. Of the last 126 races in which an incumbent ran in Montgomery County, 17 lost. Why do they lose their seats? We took a shot at answering that question, aided by some of our shrewdest and trustiest spies.

Partisan Races

As recently as the 1990s, the GOP was a viable minority party in Montgomery County. They tended to be concentrated in the western and northern areas, primarily in Council Districts 1 and 2 and Legislative Districts 14, 15 and 39, and were even able to elect some candidates there.

Council District 1 (Bethesda-Chevy Chase-Potomac) was represented by Republicans Betty Ann Krahnke and Howard Denis for its first sixteen years of existence. Both were supported by crossover Democrats who only came home when Roger Berliner defeated Denis in 2006. Council District 2’s (Upcounty) Nancy Dacek held on for three terms until she was defeated in 2002 by Mike Knapp, a moderate Democrat with business experience.

State District 14 was split with Howard County and had two subdistricts for Delegates, only one of which was wholly inside Montgomery. In 1994, its delegation was entirely Republican. In 2002, it was redistricted out of Howard and entirely into Montgomery and its delegation went totally Democratic.

State District 15 was once the most competitive district in Montgomery. Its Senate seat changed hands from Democrat Larry Levitan to Republican Jean Roesser in 1994, and then to Democrat Rob Garagiola in 2002. Republican Delegate Richard LaVay did not run for reelection in 2002 and Republican Delegate Jean Cryor was defeated by Democrat Craig Rice in 2006, completing the district’s transition to all-Democratic.

State District 39 was first created as an all-Montgomery district in 1994 with its area extending all the way to the Frederick County border. It initially had an all-Republican delegation. But Senator P.J. Hogan later switched his party affiliation to Democrat and the Republican Delegates were defeated in 1998. The district’s restructuring to a “C” configuration around Gaithersburg and Rockville took out some of its GOP voters and helps it remain Democratic today.

Seven of the seventeen incumbents who have lost since 1994 were Republicans who were defeated by Democrats, and one more (Levitan) was a Democrat who was defeated by a Republican. Since the GOP is almost extinct in Montgomery County, this form of competition to incumbents has been eliminated.

We’ll look at another reason why incumbents lose in Part Three.

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Why Incumbents Lose, Part One

Change in politics comes in two ways: contests for open seats and successful challenges to incumbents. The former happens all the time while the latter is more rare. But barn-burning incumbent challenges can be some of the most exciting races ever. How often do they succeed?

We assembled election data for all forty-two state and county offices in Montgomery County over the last four cycles. Our finding is that of the last 126 races in which incumbents ran, they won 109 times – a win rate of 86.5%. But the incumbent win rate has drifted slowly downwards from 92.0% in 1994 to 81.3% in 2006. Here is our complete dataset.


We’ll take a shot at explaining the incumbent losses in Part Two.

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