Three sources have advised us that Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey will not be running for Congress against Donna Edwards. Let's see how quickly this story develops.
Update: Six hours after we broke this story, the Post has confirmed it.
Showing posts with label Glenn Ivey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Glenn Ivey. Show all posts
Tuesday, January 12, 2010
Ivey May Not Challenge Edwards (Updated)
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Primaries to Watch Update, Part Three
By Marc Korman and Adam Pagnucco.
And now, the top three primaries in MoCo!
3. County Council At-Large
Prior rank: Fifth
Marc
This race is still largely unformed, but so far Becky Wagner, Guled Kassim, and Jane DeWinter have taken definitive steps towards running. One person who slipped through Adam’s survey of potential at-large candidates was former State Senator Ida Ruben. There are persistent rumors of her making a return to elected life with an at-large run.
There’s no question that the unions are shopping for at least one at-large challenger, with Duchy Trachtenberg the popular target. Becky Wagner appears to have broad teacher support based on some of the folks supporting and working for her, which given MCEA’s influence could be helpful.
It is worth noting that new Council President Nancy Floreen is an at-large member. She was the lowest winning vote getter in the 2006 primary (and the top vote getter in the general). The Council President is a high profile job and she obtained it in a high profile way. But given the budget deficit and difficult challenges ahead, her position may actually have a negative effect on her reelection. That said, at this point she is still a safe bet for re-election.
This race was at #5 in September. With stepped up activity by challengers, it has moved up the list in interest.
Adam
I heard rumors about Ida Ruben running for an at-large seat back in May while I was writing the Whispers of the At-Large Race series. But the spies said such mean things about her that I didn’t have the heart to print their remarks in the series. (And you know I’ve printed some pretty rough commentary from the spies in the past!) Even though the Gazette talked to Ruben in October, I see no evidence of an actual campaign going on. And I have heard no additional information about AFL-CIO Director of Civil Rights Roz Pelles, Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman, Delegate Ben Kramer or former District 4 candidates Cary Lamari and Chris Paladino. Robin Ficker is running for council, but he has not said whether he will run in District 4 or at-large.
The incumbents understand something that I’m not convinced all the challengers get: winning an at-large election in Montgomery County is extremely difficult. It takes vast sums of money just to build name recognition. All of the incumbents had attention-getting positions prior to their joining the council, and two of them (Marc Elrich and Duchy Trachtenberg) ran unsuccessfully prior to getting elected. If you want to have a shot in this kind of race, you really need to bring it – especially since all four incumbents are running again.
Here’s a tidbit: I am hearing persistent rumors of a movement to draft former District 5 candidate Hans Riemer for an at-large run. Riemer, an Obama campaign staffer who has also served as a Board Member of Action Committee for Transit, received mostly favorable reviews from our informants in June. If he got in, he would be able to raise some national money, capitalize on both local and national campaign experience and likely run on a smart-growth platform. A Riemer candidacy could be a game-changer in the at-large race.
2. Congress District 4: Edwards vs. Taylor vs. Ivey
Prior rank: Sixth
Marc
Donna Edwards stormed into the 4th Congressional District primary in 2006 and won the hearts and minds of many active progressives. She brought that energy back and more in 2008 and cleaned the clock of incumbent Al Wynn. But something has gone sour and many people have grumbled about Edwards. In September, I referred to these as below the radar complaints and lots of flack from pro-business and pro-Israel interests. From my conversations, dissatisfaction with Edwards has grown among her constituents.
That dissatisfaction has led not only Delegate Herman Taylor to run against her, but also encouraged Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey to “explore” the race. That squeezes the incumbent in both counties she represents, though it could also mean the anti-Edwards vote is divided. A key indicator of how seriously Congresswoman Edwards takes these challenges may be her next campaign finance report. Last quarter she raised less than $40,000 and had just $55,000 cash on hand, anemic numbers for a House incumbent.
This race was on the list in September as #6, mentioned as Edwards vs. Taylor. With Delegate Taylor in the race and State’s Attorney Ivey moving in that direction, it has grown more interesting and moved up the list.
Adam
I have two questions about this contest.
1. How many votes can Glenn Ivey get in Montgomery County? In 2008, MoCo accounted for 32% of all votes cast in the District 4 Democratic primary. Edwards received 67% of the vote in MoCo and 55% of the vote in Prince George’s. It is impossible to overstate the strong dislike that most MoCo voters have for the Prince George’s County government and any politicians who are associated with it. The jailhouse killing scandal may be more damaging to Ivey in MoCo than it is in Prince George’s, which is where it occurred.
2. I have yet to find anyone who believes that Herman Taylor will win this seat, but which of the other candidates does his presence hurt more? Will he split the anti-Edwards vote with Ivey? Or will he take away MoCo votes from Edwards? He may not do much of either if he is unable to raise enough money to be competitive.
One more fact to consider is that the Democratic primary vote in Prince George’s is over 60% female. That is bound to help Edwards in a contest against two men.
1. District 17 State Senate
Prior rank: First
Marc
This remains the most visible challenge in the county. Cheryl Kagan is running hard against longtime incumbent Jennie Forehand. Kagan is running so hard compared to Forehand that some people do not even realize they are running against each other. Forehand is, by all accounts, organizing her most serious campaign ever and not showing any signs of withdrawing. But it is difficult for anyone to match Kagan’s energy and intensity. Going forward, it will be interesting to see what contrasts Kagan draws with the incumbent and how much money she has raised come January. Forehand has a long record with the voters and should have institutional support from Annapolis that will provide lots of resources.
Adam
Jennie Forehand has three problems. First, no one out-hops the Energizer Bunny. That is not knocking Forehand – it’s just that any rival would have problems keeping up with Kagan’s go-everywhere-at-all-times work ethic. Second, Forehand doesn’t know how to run a modern campaign. She has not had a quality challenger since she was a Delegate and her team edged out Luiz Simmons in 1986 and Susan Hoffmann in 1990. Forehand has never defeated a high-caliber opponent one-on-one – an unusual fact for a politician with such a long history. (Of course, Kagan has never run in a one-on-one race.) Third, if no challengers to the District 17 Delegates show up, are they really going to knock on doors all summer for Forehand? Something tells me that a character like Kumar “Bad Boy” Barve would be more likely to be found downing margaritas at the beach!
That said, Forehand has a decades-old base inside the district and an incumbent’s advantages can never be discounted. This remains a marquee contest that could go either way.
We’re not done yet. We have one small item of business left for later today!
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
More on Ivey vs. Edwards
Roll Call and the Examiner both report that State's Attorney Glenn Ivey is seriously considering taking on Congresswoman Donna Edwards. The latter publication asked for the opinion of yours truly. It's also worth reviewing our readers' take on the incumbent's performance in office. If this race happens, it will be a helluva contest.
Thursday, August 06, 2009
Squeeze Play on Donna Edwards?
Time to stir the pot!
We hear that District 4 Congresswoman Donna Edwards may get a two-headed primary challenge from Prince George’s State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey and Delegate Herman Taylor (D-14). Rumors are rampant of Edwards staffers not returning phone calls and the Congresswoman having multiple spats with other politicians. We believe Ivey would be a strong contender for Prince George’s County Executive if he chose to run for that office. No doubt his supporters hope that Taylor, who represents part of Eastern Montgomery County, will strip enough MoCo votes from Edwards so that Ivey will squeak through on the basis of a winning margin in Prince George’s.
If that is the plan, it has problems. Taylor was convicted of driving while impaired in February after falling asleep at the wheel of his idling Cadillac in May 2008. Taylor is also known to be pro-life in Annapolis, a fact Edwards would be sure to point out. As for Ivey, he has yet to live down his failure to obtain an indictment in the infamous Prince George’s jailhouse killing. Edwards spanked bullying bossman Al Wynn and will take it to either - or both - of these prospective opponents. They have been warned!
If Taylor is foolish enough to run, Olney resident Craig Zucker, Comptroller Peter Franchot’s Deputy Chief of Staff, becomes the early favorite for the open Delegate seat. Zucker lost the 2002 District 14 Delegate primary to Anne Kaiser by just 327 votes and has been a fixture at political events ever since.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
What Happens if Anthony Brown Leaves? (Updated)
Rumors are swirling that Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is under consideration by the Obama administration for a cabinet job. If he leaves, what happens next?
Governor Martin O’Malley will have to pick a replacement, subject to approval by the General Assembly. And that will be very interesting. Lieutenant Governor picks in the recent past have been made for the sake of regional and demographic ticket-balancing. Of the five statewide officials other than Brown, three (O’Malley and Senators Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin) are from the Baltimore area, two (Attorney General Doug Gansler and Comptroller Peter Franchot) are from Montgomery County, four are male and all five are white. That leaves obvious gaps in representation that the Governor will be urged to fill. But this time around, there may be other considerations besides ticket-balancing as the Governor will be the favorite in both the 2010 primary and general elections.
Our informants have named these people as possibilities:
1. Prince George’s State Attorney Glenn Ivey
Ivey is a highly-regarded prosecutor, even by many in Montgomery County. (That is rare for any Prince George’s politician.) He is particularly praised for trying to rein in the county’s notorious police department and avoiding the appearances of impropriety that have dogged many of the county’s other politicians.
Ivey’s selection has two hurdles to overcome. First, he is generally believed to be running for County Executive in 2010. Second, rumor has it that he turned down an offer from O’Malley to be his number two in 2006. County Executive or Mayor may be a better route to the Governor’s office than a Lieutenant Governor position. Still, one source says the dropoff after Ivey is “huge.”
2. Senator C. Anthony Muse (D-26)
Aside from Ivey, Muse may be the most prominent Prince George’s politician not under investigation. By picking Reverend Muse, O’Malley could patch up his relations with black churches in the wake of the slots referendum and deny Prince George’s County to any primary challenger. On the other hand, Muse would generate objections from the GLBT community and he is also rumored to be running for County Executive.
3. Delegate Dereck Davis (D-25)
Davis is a four-term Delegate and Chair of the Economic Matters Committee at the ripe old age of 41. He is the pick that most resembles Anthony Brown. But would he want to leave his chair and enter a largely ceremonial office for the chance of someday running for Governor? Davis’s departure would give Speaker Mike Busch an interesting choice for his replacement on Economic Matters.
4. Labor Secretary Tom Perez
Perez has performed excellent work for the Governor in pushing his slots referendum, but he is probably a more likely Obama cabinet pick than is Brown. One thing is for sure: Tom Perez is going places.
5. Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith
I know what you’re thinking: why would O’Malley pick another white male politician from the Baltimore area? The logic behind this pick would be to give Smith the full-time job of raising money and making the rounds of the state. Why? That would set him up nicely to take on the Governor’s arch-enemy, Peter Franchot, for Comptroller in 2010.
6. Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett
Leggett has several advantages to the Governor aside from demographics. First, he is a former Chair of the Maryland Democratic Party and has relationships across the state. Second, because he will be 69 in 2010, he may have no ambitions for the Governor’s seat and that will make life in Annapolis a bit easier for O’Malley. Third, he can be counted on to be a low-key team member. Fourth, he may be the one Montgomery County politician who is acceptable to the rest of the state. And does Leggett truly want to deal with the next two brutal budget cycles in cash-starved MoCo?
Best of all, Leggett’s ascension would set off a chaotic fracas for the County Executive’s chair in Rockville. At least four County Council Members will go for it!
Update: I cannot let this discussion pass without reference to Maryland’s most significant Lieutenant Governor choice: William Donald Schaefer’s pick of Melvin Steinberg in 1986. Steinberg, then the President of the Maryland Senate, became embroiled in a feud with the hot-tempered Schaefer and was shut out of all administration duties. After losing to Parris Glendening in the 1994 Governor primary, Steinberg endorsed conservative Ellen Sauerbrey four years later. But none of this makes Steinberg the most important number two pick in the state’s history. What is really important is the identity of Steinberg’s successor as Senate President.
You guessed it: Big Daddy Mike Miller. And so out of small acts are empires born!
Update 2: The Examiner and the Gazette have more, including speculation that County Council Member Valerie Ervin might get the job.
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