Council Member George Leventhal finished first in the 2006 at-large Democratic primary. What does that mean this year?
First, some basic statistics on Leventhal along with his performance chart in 2006.
Electoral Experience
Two-term at-large incumbent. Finished fourth in 2002 as a member of the End Gridlock slate. Finished first in 2006. Former Chair of the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee.
Areas of Strength, 2006
Almost everywhere. Leventhal finished first in four of five Council Districts and five of eight State Legislative Districts. He finished first in Silver Spring, Gaithersburg, Rockville, Germantown, Potomac, Chevy Chase and Olney, among MANY places.
Areas of Weakness, 2006
Finished fifth in Poolesville and fourth in Garrett Park and Dickerson. In other words, Leventhal had almost no geographic weaknesses.
Endorsements
In 2006, Leventhal had the Apple, the Post, lots of labor support, lots of business support… you name it, he had it, except for the Gazette. His endorsements are similarly numerous this year.
Campaign Receipts
$328,606 for the 2006 cycle, second only to Nancy Floreen. In the 2006 cycle through the Pre-Primary 1 report in 2006, Leventhal raised $285,246. In the 2010 cycle through the Pre-Primary 1 report in 2010, Leventhal has raised $257,353, a 10% decrease from the prior cycle.
What is Different Now
The Washington Post has targeted Leventhal for defeat over his dealings with the unions. We find the Post’s arguments against Leventhal to be unfair, but the Post is the lone political actor in the county that is unaccountable to anyone. (Witness the lack of consequence for the paper’s former practice of using a non-resident intern to write its local editorials.) Leventhal’s cash position is also not what it once was. In mid-August 2006, he had $132,162 in the bank. In mid-August 2010, he reported having $70,461.
Forecast
We do not believe the Post’s attacks or cash flow issues will seriously hinder Leventhal. He finished first in 2006 largely because he was the only at-large incumbent to hold a spot on the Apple Ballot, he had good financing and he had very broad institutional support. Not much has changed. George Leventhal is a strong incumbent who will return. We are picking Leventhal to finish first, with a second-place finish possible if fellow incumbent Marc Elrich improves his financial performance.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at Marc Elrich.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Council At-Large: George Leventhal
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2 comments:
These new stricter regulations to check signatures are supposedly to prevent fraud. But the real fraud here is the fraud being perpetrated on the voters of Montgomery County. I have never had more than 25% of my signatures rejected in each of more than 20 charter amendment petition drives. And there was never a hint of fraud. It is more trouble to forge twelve different names twelve different ways from the phone book than it is to collect twelve signatures the right way.
Supposedly 40% of the signatures in the Anne Arundel slots petition were invalid. So why are 2/3 of the Montgomery signatures invalid. Obviously the standards are being applied in different ways in the two counties.
See you in Court.
Robin, Robin, Robin.
You need to keep up with the news in Montgomery County more often. Had you done so, you would have known that the Court of Appeals had issued the Doe v. Montgomery County Board of Elections decision in December, 2008, a decision that was widely publicized at the time.
You would also have known that I was the lawyer who represented the plaintiffs in that case, and was successful in persuading the Court of Appeals that the standard the BOE was using (and had used in all of your earlier petitions) was in fact wrong. You could then have called me (notwithstanding our unfortunate 2009 tiff over athletic prowess) and I would have been more than willing to advise you (for a reasonable fee for my services, of course) on how to successfully submit a referendum petition after Doe. Alas and alack, you did not avail yourself of my services.
You can pass this message on to Eric Bernard and the anti-ambulance fee people, who similarly don't keep up with current events.
Jonathan Shurberg
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