Sunday, April 25, 2010

Ali Claims Statistical Tie with King in New Poll

Delegate Saqib Ali (D-39) has released the results of a poll by Research 2000 of 404 likely District 39 Democratic primary voters showing that 25% support him and 22% support Senator Nancy King, with 53% undecided. The poll's margin of error is five points, meaning that the two are statistically tied. With this many undecideds, the race could go either way. Following is Ali's press release.


Contact: Ben Shnider, (240) 242-9451,
Delair Ali (unrelated to Saqib Ali), 301-570-3593,


Research 2000 Survey Finds the two Candidates for MD State Senate in District 39 Statistically Tied

Research 2000 for Ali for Senate Campaign. 4/19-21. Likely Democratic Primary voters. MoE ±5%

Ali: 25%

King: 22%

Undecided: 53%

OLNEY, MD- A new poll conducted by Research 2000 shows Delegate Saqib Ali and Senator Nancy King in a statistical dead heat in the Maryland District 39 Democratic primary for State Senate.

The survey, conducted between April 19 and April 21, found that 25% of decided likely Democratic primary voters supported Ali, while 22% supported King. 53% of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided. The poll’s margin of error was ±5%.

“We kicked off this campaign knowing that we would be the underdog. However, this poll affirms what we always believed: the people of District 39 want a real progressive voice in Maryland’s State Senate,” said Ali’s campaign manager Ben Shnider.

Ali issued a surprise declaration of his candidacy this past Friday on Kojo Nnamdi’s radio show “Politics Hour,” arguing that he was running to give the residents of District 39 a progressive voice in the Maryland State Senate. He is currently one of District 39’s three delegates in the Maryland’s House of Delegates. Ali also unveiled his new website on the air:

A total of 404 Democrats who are likely voters Democratic Primary election in the 39th Legislative District were interviewed by telephone for the poll.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95% probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if all Democrats in the entire district were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for age or gender. Any further questions regarding methodology can be directed to Delair Ali, President of Research 2000.