A new poll by Rasmussen shows Martin O’Malley and Bob Ehrlich tied at 45% support among 500 likely voters. Some raise the question of whether Rasmussen is biased in favor of Republicans. A bigger problem for your author is that Rasmussen’s typical sample size of 500 is too small for a statewide poll. Still, this is now the third Rasmussen poll since February. If the firm is repeating the same methodology in each poll, the trend should be instructive. And according to them, the trend is that the race is slowly tightening and is now firmly in the margin of error (which in their case is four points). Consider the following results from the polls of February 23, April 20 and June 8.
Maryland Governor’s Race
February: O’Malley 49, Ehrlich 43
April: O’Malley 47, Ehrlich 44
June: O’Malley 45, Ehrlich 45
Favorable/Unfavorable
February: O’Malley 54/40, Ehrlich 55/36
April: O’Malley 54/43, Ehrlich 56/39
June: O’Malley 53/43, Ehrlich 53/42
O’Malley Approval/Disapproval
February: 53/42
April: 50/48
June: 54/44
Barack Obama Approval//Disapproval
February: 59/40
April: 59/41
June: 56/36
Support for Repealing Federal Health Care Bill
April: 38% Strongly favor, 8% Somewhat favor, 5% Somewhat oppose, 44% Strongly oppose, 5% Not sure
June: 42% Strongly favor, 11% Somewhat favor, 6% Somewhat oppose, 36% Strongly oppose, 5% Not sure
All margins of error are 4%.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
Governor’s Race Even Tighter
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3 comments:
Hammer O'Malley on his push to increase the state sales tax. It is a killer. A similar vote flipped around the Lane-McKeldon vote. Lane is the incumbent Maryland Governor after whom the Bay Bridge is named. He lost to McKeldin after beating him before. Lane's mistake: the sales tax. Read about it at the McKeldin library at the University of Maryland.
In almost every case, a U.S. Governor who raised the sales tax was in trouble!
At the public hearing in Annapolis in the fall of 2007 on the 20% increase in Maryland's sales tax, I was the only individual in the state to testify against the increase. I reminded my Delegate, Mr. Rice, that we shared an 85 mile border with Delaware which has NO sales tax at all. He still voted for the sales tax increase which every man, woman and child pay every day!
According to the Institute of State Studies, Maryland will lose about $800 million dollars from internet sales.
If the state charged a sales tax on all internet sales this could be a substantial source of revenue.
This study was donein 2002. I am sure the amount of revenue would be a lot higher today.
Bob Fustero
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