GOP Poll Claims Mike Busch is Vulnerable

Former Republican Delegate Herb McMillan (D-30), who served one term starting in 2003, narrowly lost a 2006 Senate run against Democratic incumbent John Astle and is seeking to return to the House, has released a poll claiming that his opponent, Speaker Mike Busch, is vulnerable. Is he right?

Following are the raw top-line results of the poll.

Maryland Legislative District 30 Baseline

Interview Schedule
Field Dates: June 7-8
2010 N = 250 Likely Voters
Project #: 10410
Margin of Error =+6.2%
* Denotes result less than 0.5%. ^ Denotes rounding. Due to rounding, some figures may be higher or lower by less than one-half of one percent.

A. Are you registered to vote at this address?
100%

YES (CONTINUE TO QUESTION B)

B. Are you, or is anyone in your household, employed by a newspaper, television or radio station, or a political party, or by a candidate for political office?
100% NO

C. How likely would you say you are to vote in the November elections later this year?
Are you...
(ROTATE TOP TO BOTTOM, BOTTOM TO TOP)
89% VERY LIKELY
11% SOMEWHAT LIKELY
Before we begin, to ensure we have a representative sample...

1. In what year were you born?
3% 18 -24
9% 25 -34
25% 35 -44
15% 45 -54
24% 55 -64
24% 65 AND ABOVE
* REFUSED

2. And, would you say that things in Maryland are going in the right direction, or have they pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track?
33% RIGHT DIRECTION
51% WRONG TRACK
15% NO OPINION (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)
Now, thinking about issues...

3. Which ONE of the following issues do you think should be the top priority of the Governor and state legislators? Is it... (RANDOMIZE)

30% THE STATE BUDGET AND SPENDING
27% JOBS AND THE STATE ECONOMY
9% EDUCATION
9% THE ENVIRONMENT AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
6% STATE TAXES
5% HEALTH CARE
5% GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION AND ETHICS
3% TRAFFIC AND GROWTH
2% CRIME AND DRUGS
2% ELECTRICITY RATES
1% SLOT MACHINES

- NONE OF THE ABOVE (DO NOT READ)
2% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

Thinking more about the elections...

4. If the election for Governor were being held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were...
(ROTATE TOP TWO) Republican Bob Ehrlich Democrat Martin O'Malley
...and... Third Party Candidate Susan Gaztanaga?
* REFUSED (DO NOT READ)


If the election for State Delegate were just between...(ROTATE) Republican Herb McMillan ...and...Democrat Michael Busch ...for whom would you vote?
49% HERB MCMILLAN
37% MICHAEL BUSCH
13% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ)
1% NEITHER (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

(And,) If the election for State Delegate were just between...(ROTATE) Republican Herb McMillan ...and...Democrat Virginia Clagett ...for whom would you vote?
50% HERB MCMILLAN
36% VIRGINIA CLAGETT
12% UNDECIDED (DO NOT READ)
1% NEITHER (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

Now I just have a few more questions for statistical purposes only.

Are you registered to vote as... (ROTATE) a Republican, a Democrat, or something else? (IF REPUBLICAN OR DEMOCRAT, ASK:) Would you call yourself a STRONG (REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT) or a NOT-SO-STRONG (REPUBLICAN/DEMOCRAT)? (IF SOMETHING ELSE, ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to (ROTATE) the Republican or to the Democratic party?
23% STRONG REPUBLICAN
14% NOT-SO-STRONG REPUBLICAN
7% LEAN TO REPUBLICANS
4% SOMETHING ELSE/INDEPENDENT
7% LEAN TO DEMOCRATS
18% NOT-SO-STRONG DEMOCRAT
25% STRONG DEMOCRAT
1% DON'T KNOW (DO NOT READ)
1% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

37% TOTAL REPUBLICAN
43% TOTAL DEMOCRAT
18% TOTAL LEAN/INDEPENDENT

What is your main racial or ethnic heritage? Is it... (READ LIST SLOWLY BEFORE ACCEPTING ANSWER, THEN ACCEPT ONE RESPONSE ONLY.)
82% CAUCASIAN OR WHITE
12% AFRICAN-AMERICAN OR BLACK
* HISPANIC
– ASIAN
3% OTHER (Specify:__________) (DO NOT READ)
3% REFUSED (DO NOT READ)

Gender (BY OBSERVATION)
48% MALE
52% FEMALE

We have three reasons for skepticism about this poll.

1. The sample size is infinitesimal (250 likely voters). That produces a GIGANTIC margin of error of +/- 6.2%. That means two percentage results would have to differ by more than 12.4 points to be statistically significantly different.

2. The poll was financed by McMillan, the former Republican Delegate who is running against Speaker Mike Busch and fellow Democratic Delegate Virginia Clagett. Freshman Republican Ron George, who won by just 53 votes in 2006, holds the third seat.

3. The poll tests the relevant contest questions incorrectly. It assumes that McMillan will be running one-one-one against Busch and Clagett. In fact, the race is a round-robin with the top three vote-getters winning. If McMillan does win, he is probably more likely to knock out Clagett than Busch. He may even knock out George. The poll also does not factor in the candidacy of Democratic challenger and former Hillary Clinton operative Judd Legum. Overall, it does not reflect the complex dynamics of a multiple-candidate race.

Still, Democrats should not take this election for granted for the following reasons.

1. District 30, which includes the City of Annapolis and its immediate suburbs, is truly a swing district. Republicans have won here before, including George (in 2006), McMillan (in 2002), former Delegate Phillip Bissett (in 1994) and former Senator and Delegate Aris Allen (in 1978 and 1990). Races here are often decided by hundreds of votes, or even less. In 1986, Democrat Donald Lamb defeated Republican John Hammond for a Delegate seat by three votes.

2. Turnout is crucial. The above poll’s sample is 43% Democrat and 37% Republican. In 2006, a year in which District 30 elected Democratic Senator John Astle, Democratic Delegates Mike Busch and Virginia Clagett and (barely) Republican Delegate Ron George, 13,719 Democrats and 9,432 Republicans voted in the primary. The State Board of Elections does not report turnout by party in the general election. It stands to reason that 2010 will be a worse year for Democrats than was 2006. Will the GOP poll’s sample be representative of actual voters in November?

Furthermore, hangover from the Zina Pierre scandal may affect African-American turnout. Data from the 2000 Census indicates that 14% of the district’s population is black. Will they come out in the same numbers as in 2006 or 2008?

3. Poll after poll shows voter anger against incumbents, and especially Democrats, at the national level. Whether that sentiment is as strong in Maryland is a fair subject for debate. However, to the extent that it is, few officials are more identified with the state government than Speaker Busch. And while Senate President Mike Miller has no credible opponent and Governor O’Malley is running in a mostly blue state, Busch is running in a swing district. This election could be unpredictable.

Democrats, regardless of Herb McMillan’s poll, should beware.