Monday, May 10, 2010

Governor’s Race Poll List

Five recent polls have measured support in the Maryland Governor’s race, including a new one released today by the Post. Here is a complete list of all polls taken so far as well as links to their data.

Gonzales Research, September 2009
833 registered voters contacted September 8-17
O’Malley 49, Ehrlich 38
Margin of error: +/- 3.5%

Gonzales Research, January 2010
816 registered voters “who are likely to vote in the 2010 general election” contacted January 13-17
O’Malley 48, Ehrlich 39
Margin of error: +/- 3.5%

Rasmussen, February 2010
500 likely voters contacted February 23
O’Malley 49, Ehrlich 43
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%

Rasmussen, April 2010
500 likely voters contacted April 20
O’Malley 47, Ehrlich 44
Margin of error: +/- 4.5%

Washington Post, May 2010
851 registered voters contacted May 3-6
O’Malley 49, Ehrlich 41
Margin of error: +/- 4%

Our Take:

Since September, the polling has been remarkably stable. Martin O’Malley has received 49% support three times, 48% support once and 47% support once. Bob Ehrlich has received five different levels of support at 38%, 39%, 41%, 43% and 44%. Neither candidate is showing much of a trend in any direction. The mean results are O’Malley at 48.4% and Ehrlich at 41.0%. That is just within the margin of error, which has averaged around four points.

Interestingly, while both candidates enjoy nearly universal name recognition, the Post reports that 48% of its respondents are persuadable. Despite O’Malley’s lead in every poll so far, this is a real race.