Monday, March 14, 2011

Seven Democratic Districts?

One exciting aspect of redistricting this year is that almost anyone can play. Here is hurriedly drawn-up plan that shows one of many possible redistricting scenarios for 2012.

This map provides an extremely rough example of what a congressional redistricting plan with seven Democratic-leaning districts might look like. Extending the Sixth into Montgomery, where it used to go back in the 1980s when I lived in Beverly Byron's district, would switch it from a Republican to Democratic leaning district. All of the other six current Democratic districts continue to lean Democratic.

This map preserves the Fourth and Seventh as black-majority districts. The Fourth swaps territory in Montgomery for Anne Arundel. The Seventh no longer extends into Howard County--placed entirely in a substantially reworked Third District here--but takes in more of Baltimore County.

The First is very safe for Republicans by taking in strong Republican territory along the Mason-Dixon line as well as the Eastern Shore. The most severe changes likely would occur in the Baltimore area districts, particularly the Second and the Third Districts.

Note that the populations are only roughly, not perfectly equal. Also, the addresses of the incumbents (and other serious potential contenders) were unknown when this was drawn so to the extent that people are moved in or out of their current district the impact was unintended.