Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Anne Arundel Legislative Districts?

Excluding District 21, which is mostly in Prince George's, Anne Arundel currently elects 12 delegates, eight of whom are Republicans. This map might reverse that partisan balance. It was constructed without any knowledge of current legislator home addresses.

Based on its population, Anne Arundel is entitled to four full legislative districts and also could contain a subdistrict electing a single delegate. Bear in mind that the population figures may be a bit off as Maryland requires that the numbers be readjusted to reallocate the prison population to their last known address.

The grey district in northeastern Anne Arundel is similar to current District 31 which elects three Republicans except that it loses some territory in Glen Burnie and gains new (Republican-leaning) territory in central Anne Arundel. The new district would be very Republican, having voted for McCain over Obama by 62-36, to the benefit of Democrats elsewhere.

The three other complete legislative districts would favor Democrats, though by a smaller amount. The pink district in northwestern Anne Arundel is similar to current District 32 (which currently elects three Democrats) except that it is shift somewhat east. This district voted 54-44 for Obama in 2008 and 58-42 for O'Malley in 2006.

The blue district in western Anne Arundel is most similar to District 33 but with major changes, including taking in most of the Anne Arundel section of District 21. The district outlined here voted 54-45 for Obama and was about two points more Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. In the 2010 election, District 33 elected three Republicans though this district might be more favorable to the Democrats.

The Annapolis-based district in eastern Anne Arundel went 53-45 for Obama and was about two points more Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Current District 30 elects one Democrat--Speaker Michael Busch--and two Republicans. As it sheds Republican-leaning territory for more favorable turf, Democrats might also perform more strongly here.

The purple district in southern Anne Arundel would elect just one delegate. It listed heavily Republican--56-43 for Obama--in the 2008 presidential election but went for Ehrlich by only four points in 2006.