We believe the two Leisure World precincts came in at the end. That's why Navarro's 652 vote lead with 37 precincts counted shrank to 78 votes with all 45 precincts reporting. Now the contest goes to absentee ballots.
Our spies are whispering that there may be up to 600 absentee and provisional votes outstanding at the maximum. So let's do a little math. If there are 600 more votes to be counted and if candidates other than Navarro and Kramer claim 10% of those votes, then Kramer could beat Navarro by outpolling her 310-230. That would mean he would need a 52%-38% edge over her among absentees and provisionals. If there were only 400 more votes to be counted and 10% went to other candidates, then Kramer would need to beat Navarro by a 20-point margin (55%-35%). The smaller the number of votes to be counted, the greater the percentage lead Kramer will need to defeat Navarro.
We know that both the Kramer and Navarro campaigns sent out preprinted absentee ballot applications. Kramer sent them far and wide while Navarro concentrated on supporters. Which strategy will prove more successful? We'll find out in a few days.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
D4 Election Results 3
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1 comments:
Mostly because of her "gutter politics" tactics, Nacny Navarro is one of the most feared -- and not in a good way -- political aspirants in Montgomery County.
The same goes double for her "chittering horde" campaigners. Especially for the perversion of local online media figures, and the pre-positioning time and expense involved, genuine fear on the level of 9/11 is rising past initial shock and is forming into steely resolve:
Anyone but Nancy Navarro.
That means that while the Navarro campaign cleverly divided the Democrat primary vote to the point where the Kramer campaign may lose by a very few paltry votes -- did someone mention Minnesota? -- the fact is, probably even Ben Kramer would rather see Robin Ficker in the seat rather than Nancy Navarro. The damage Mr Ficker could do is utterly inconsequential compared to that which Ms Navarro -- or worse, her shadowy supporters and people behind the scenes -- could do.
Thus, I advise anyone who voted for me to please vote for Robin Ficker (g_d help us all in this our hour of need) in the general elections in May.
And I advise all of the Democrat candidates to do the same.
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