D4 Election Results 3

We believe the two Leisure World precincts came in at the end. That's why Navarro's 652 vote lead with 37 precincts counted shrank to 78 votes with all 45 precincts reporting. Now the contest goes to absentee ballots.

Our spies are whispering that there may be up to 600 absentee and provisional votes outstanding at the maximum. So let's do a little math. If there are 600 more votes to be counted and if candidates other than Navarro and Kramer claim 10% of those votes, then Kramer could beat Navarro by outpolling her 310-230. That would mean he would need a 52%-38% edge over her among absentees and provisionals. If there were only 400 more votes to be counted and 10% went to other candidates, then Kramer would need to beat Navarro by a 20-point margin (55%-35%). The smaller the number of votes to be counted, the greater the percentage lead Kramer will need to defeat Navarro.

We know that both the Kramer and Navarro campaigns sent out preprinted absentee ballot applications. Kramer sent them far and wide while Navarro concentrated on supporters. Which strategy will prove more successful? We'll find out in a few days.