Absentee Ballot Update (Updated!)

Here's the latest on how the math is trending.

The following email was sent from the county Board of Elections to the County Council this morning:

From: Mihill, Amanda
Sent: Wed 4/22/2009 7:15 AM
To: Andrews, Phil; Berliner, Roger; Elrich, Marc; Ervin, Valerie; Floreen, Nancy; Knapp, Mike; Leventhal, George; Trachtenberg, Duchy
Cc: #CCL.Confidential Aides; Greenberger, Neil; Farber, Steve; Orlin, Glenn; Faden, Michael; Drummer, Bob
Subject: FW: Election Day results are posted

Councilmembers, here is a bit of follow-up from yesterday's Special Election. Board staff report that the Absenteee Canvass will be held on Thursday, April 23. From the Board's website: The Montgomery County Board of Elections, sitting as the Board of Canvassers, will convene at 10:00 a.m. for the Absentee Canvass. The Board of Canvassers will then recess immediately until 12:30 p.m. The Board of Elections will hold its monthly meeting beginning at 11:00a.m. The Board of Canvassers will begin canvassing absentee ballots at 12:30 p.m.

According to Margaret, the Board expects to canvass about 660 ballots (see her message below).

Amanda

-----Original Message-----

From: Jurgensen, Margaret
Sent: Tuesday, April 21, 2009 10:32 PM
To: Street, Thomas; Mihill, AmandaCc: 'KevinKarpinski@aol.com'; Roher, Margie
Subject: Election Day results are posted

The Absentee Canvass will be held Thursday April 23 2009, please see website regarding time. The Board expects to canvass approximately 660 absentee Ballots.

Thank you.

If 660 absentee ballots are really outstanding, then Kramer would need to outpoll Navarro by about 14 percentage points to win. But we hear that perhaps as few as 360 absentee ballots actually came back.

So let's do some more math. If 360 absentee ballots come back and 36 (10%) go for other candidates, that means Kramer must beat Navarro by a 202-122 margin (56%-34%) to win the election. Can that happen?

The Navarro campaign has said, "Our campaign can confirm a large number of absentee ballot requests were submitted by our supporters." That could be election night woofing, though the Kramer campaign is silent for the moment. But consider this: who are more likely to need absentee ballots: retirees or people who work two or three jobs?

Advantage: Navarro.

Update: Now we hear the 660 number is the actual number of returned absentee ballots. That's probably a good thing for Kramer. The more additional votes are out there, the more opportunity he has to win.