Monday, September 11, 2006

Zogby Says Ehrlich-Steele Trails Badly

The latest poll from Zogby for the Wall Street Journal shows Ehrlich badly trailing with only 39.6% of the vote to 52.5% for O'Malley--outside of the poll's 3.9% margin of error. That's a 3.1% gain over Zogby's August poll which had O'Malley's lead at 9.8%, suggesting that Ehrlich's latest ad wave in Baltimore has had little impact. Polls have varied quite a bit in this race from showing the race tied to this poll giving O'Malley a significant lead. Bad news either way for Ehrlich as incumbents who win usually start ahead and stay ahead rather than come from behind.

Interestingly, Zogby also has Kweisi Mfume 10 points up over Michael Steele in the Senate race. We will have to wait and see whether Zogby is just way off in Maryland or if the state has decided that one term of both Ehrlich and Steele was more than enough. I tend to think both the gubernatorial and senatorial races are closer than he reports.