Now we have nothing against Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, so save the emails. But keep in mind that in Maryland the Lieutenant Governor's duties are set by the Governor. And what did the Governor have the Lieutenant Governor do a couple weeks ago?
The Department of Health and Mental Hygiene reports the following:Lt. Gov. Brown Leads Celebration of New State Exercise
Read the full press release here.
State employees join in walk near State Office Complex
For Immediate Release
Karen Black, DHMH, 410-767-6490
BALTIMORE, MD (November 12, 2008) -- Lt. Governor Anthony G. Brown today joined state employees in a celebration of the new state exercise of walking by leading a group of walkers around the State Office Complex near Baltimore’s cultural arts district.
“It should go without saying, the health of Maryland population is of utmost importance to the O’Malley-Brown Administration,” Lt. Governor Brown said. “Exercise leads to better health, and walking is great low-impact way to reap the benefits of aerobic exercise.”
The event is sponsored by the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (DHMH) and is designed to draw attention to the University of Maryland’s Get Fit Maryland, a 12-week pedometer-based walking program.
Are you guys sure you really want this job?
Saturday, November 29, 2008
For Those Who Want to be Lieutenant Governor...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Busted!
You have committed an unthinkable act. You have actually looked at a political blog on Thanksgiving. And now you are Busted!
That’s right, you are more cooked than that turkey you’ve been burning. An automatic email has been sent alerting your significant other. Your cable reception will crash. Your beer fridge will short out. And your wicked Uncle Ernie will now stay an extra hour, torturing you with the latest tales of his stuffed fish collection.
Why on Earth did you do it? Are you really that addicted to state and local politics that you cannot take one day off? Separate yourself… slowly… from your computer. Life is hard enough for the politically fixated. (No comments please.)
So eat that extra drumstick (and that extra cookie, and that extra slice of pumpkin pie, and… well, you get the idea). Tolerate Uncle Ernie. He only comes down once a year and he has no one who listens to him except you. Root for Seattle to upset Dallas like the rest of us will. And come back next week because there will be plenty of politics then.
But don’t come back tomorrow. If you do, Uncle Ernie will move in for good!
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
A Historical Footnote
By Marc Korman.
After my last post about Chris Van Hollen, it was suggested to me that the reason Van Hollen could not be in the elected leadership of the House Democrats was because Steny Hoyer was already there. Between the Majority Leader representing Maryland and Nancy Pelosi being born here, I was told that Maryland is already heavily represented in the House leadership.
It is true that with Steny Hoyer as Majority Leader and the native Pelosi as Speaker, Maryland seems to be doing well in the Congressional leadership ranks. Have we always had such luck?
The House
The only House of Representatives leadership position mentioned in the Constitution is the Speaker. It is the only leadership position elected by the entire House. The parties tend to unite around one candidate so that whoever wins within the majority party will become Speaker.
Maryland is one of four of the original thirteen states to never have a Speaker representing the state. It is nice that Nancy Pelosi is from Baltimore, but last I checked C-SPAN lists her as (D-CA). We are joined by Rhode Island, Delaware, and New Hampshire in the lackluster category of fighting the revolution and not having a Speaker of the House.
After the Speaker, the other members of the House leadership are elected within their own parties. The top leadership structure of the Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference are the same. Each party has a Leader, known as the Majority or Minority Leader depending on the party’s status, a Whip, a Chair, and a Vice Chair.
Maryland has not fared well in House leadership. The only Leader or Whip, positions that first came about in the late 1890s, Maryland has ever had is Steny Hoyer. There has never been anyone else in any of the top leadership posts representing Maryland. Pelosi served as Minority Leader and Whip as well, but again, she was representing California in Congress.
The Senate
We have fared only slightly better in the Senate. The posts we know of today as Majority and Minority Leader of the Senate, the top leadership posts, developed in the 1920s. No one from Maryland has ever held the position.
Party Whips, the second ranking member of each party in the Senate, actually came about a decade earlier than the leader position. Unfortunately, Maryland has never had one of those either.
Senate President Pro Tempore is the only Senate leadership position listed in the Constitution. The original purpose of the office was to preside over the Senate when the Vice President was away. In the nation’s early years, the Senate President Pro Tempore was picked each time the Vice President was away, so there could be many different Senate Presidents during a single year. In 1890, the Senate began electing Senate Presidents for an entire Congress. Since World War II, it has largely been an honorific position given to the longest serving member of the majority party.
Maryland has had a little luck with this job. John Howard held the post for six days back in November of 1800. Samuel Smith held it for thirteen days in December of 1805. Both Howard and Smith were Senators from Maryland.
Conclusion
Perhaps Chris Van Hollen’s non-Maryland colleagues in the House disagree, but when I hear that our Congressman cannot move up in the House leadership because there are too many Marylanders running the House, my Maryland pride stirs up and I say it is about time!
Crisis in Transportation, Part Three
In Part Two, we described Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski’s aggressive infrastructure bill to create jobs, stimulate the state’s economy and generate long-run returns for Oregon. So what about Maryland?
No one argues that Maryland’s transportation needs are immense. And according to MDOT Secretary John Porcari, the $400 million increase approved in the 2007 special session is only now yielding $265 million, just barely enough to keep up with system preservation needs. Put aside the obvious need for specific projects like the state’s three proposed transit lines and the BRAC projects in Bethesda, Aberdeen and Fort Meade. There are four reasons why Maryland’s political leaders must heed the example of Oregon and start putting more money into transportation now.
1. The need for matching funds
Many large projects that rely on federal financing require matching funds from state government. That is especially true of Baltimore’s Red Line and the Washington suburbs’ Purple Line and Corridor Cities Transitway. Unless Maryland demonstrates an ability to raise sufficient funds to pay its share of these projects, federal money will flow elsewhere.
2. Costs will go up in the future
At present, we are deferring $1.1 billion in new transportation projects and face the possibility of delaying $2.5 billion more. It is inevitable that delayed projects will see higher construction costs if they are started years in the future. That will be especially true if petroleum costs rise again and ripple through into construction materials. And recessions are good times to build construction projects because contractors are hungry for work and will restrain their margins just to keep their key personnel employed.
3. Economic competitiveness
The Tax Foundation’s determination that Maryland’s business tax climate has deteriorated from 24th to 45th among U.S. states in one year is a threat to the state’s reputation. If in addition the state is perceived as unable to finance its transportation infrastructure, it will risk being perceived as a radioactive place for locating jobs.
4. Job creation and the next elections
Governor O’Malley has done his best to deal with a difficult budget situation. But if the economy is still in rough shape in 2010, that may be insufficient to mollify voters. What voters want in tough times is to create jobs – especially high-paying jobs. The construction industry creates and supports many high-wage jobs such as estimators, engineers, architects, planners and superintendents. And on state transportation projects, the building trades workforce is protected by Maryland’s prevailing wage law, ensuring adequate pay and benefits. The short-term ripple effects of job creation will combine with long-run returns on improved infrastructure to benefit the state’s economy immensely. And the Governor will enjoy support from both business and labor if he proposes such a plan.
But what about the tax increase necessary to support it? Voters recently demonstrated their unhappiness with tax hikes by voting for slots and the Ficker amendment while opposing a telephone tax in Prince George’s County. But transportation taxes differ in two ways:
1. If they are truly dedicated to transportation, voters may support them. If they are used to finance “general spending,” voters will be skeptical.
2. Recent declines in gas prices mean that voters will not be hit in their pocketbooks by a gas tax hike. According to Gasbuddy, the average gas price in Maryland has fallen from over $4.00 last summer to less than $2.00 now.
Oregon Governor Kulongoski’s two-cent gas hike would amount to less than one-percent of the recent reduction in gas prices if implemented in the Free State. If the gas tax cannot be raised and/or indexed now, when can it ever be increased?
Maryland has a transportation crisis. So does Oregon. Oregon’s leadership has a plan to deal with it. We need one too.
Update: The Baltimore Sun details the total lack of leadership in Howard County on this issue.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
What Happens if Anthony Brown Leaves? (Updated)
Rumors are swirling that Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown is under consideration by the Obama administration for a cabinet job. If he leaves, what happens next?
Governor Martin O’Malley will have to pick a replacement, subject to approval by the General Assembly. And that will be very interesting. Lieutenant Governor picks in the recent past have been made for the sake of regional and demographic ticket-balancing. Of the five statewide officials other than Brown, three (O’Malley and Senators Barbara Mikulski and Ben Cardin) are from the Baltimore area, two (Attorney General Doug Gansler and Comptroller Peter Franchot) are from Montgomery County, four are male and all five are white. That leaves obvious gaps in representation that the Governor will be urged to fill. But this time around, there may be other considerations besides ticket-balancing as the Governor will be the favorite in both the 2010 primary and general elections.
Our informants have named these people as possibilities:
1. Prince George’s State Attorney Glenn Ivey
Ivey is a highly-regarded prosecutor, even by many in Montgomery County. (That is rare for any Prince George’s politician.) He is particularly praised for trying to rein in the county’s notorious police department and avoiding the appearances of impropriety that have dogged many of the county’s other politicians.
Ivey’s selection has two hurdles to overcome. First, he is generally believed to be running for County Executive in 2010. Second, rumor has it that he turned down an offer from O’Malley to be his number two in 2006. County Executive or Mayor may be a better route to the Governor’s office than a Lieutenant Governor position. Still, one source says the dropoff after Ivey is “huge.”
2. Senator C. Anthony Muse (D-26)
Aside from Ivey, Muse may be the most prominent Prince George’s politician not under investigation. By picking Reverend Muse, O’Malley could patch up his relations with black churches in the wake of the slots referendum and deny Prince George’s County to any primary challenger. On the other hand, Muse would generate objections from the GLBT community and he is also rumored to be running for County Executive.
3. Delegate Dereck Davis (D-25)
Davis is a four-term Delegate and Chair of the Economic Matters Committee at the ripe old age of 41. He is the pick that most resembles Anthony Brown. But would he want to leave his chair and enter a largely ceremonial office for the chance of someday running for Governor? Davis’s departure would give Speaker Mike Busch an interesting choice for his replacement on Economic Matters.
4. Labor Secretary Tom Perez
Perez has performed excellent work for the Governor in pushing his slots referendum, but he is probably a more likely Obama cabinet pick than is Brown. One thing is for sure: Tom Perez is going places.
5. Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith
I know what you’re thinking: why would O’Malley pick another white male politician from the Baltimore area? The logic behind this pick would be to give Smith the full-time job of raising money and making the rounds of the state. Why? That would set him up nicely to take on the Governor’s arch-enemy, Peter Franchot, for Comptroller in 2010.
6. Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett
Leggett has several advantages to the Governor aside from demographics. First, he is a former Chair of the Maryland Democratic Party and has relationships across the state. Second, because he will be 69 in 2010, he may have no ambitions for the Governor’s seat and that will make life in Annapolis a bit easier for O’Malley. Third, he can be counted on to be a low-key team member. Fourth, he may be the one Montgomery County politician who is acceptable to the rest of the state. And does Leggett truly want to deal with the next two brutal budget cycles in cash-starved MoCo?
Best of all, Leggett’s ascension would set off a chaotic fracas for the County Executive’s chair in Rockville. At least four County Council Members will go for it!
Update: I cannot let this discussion pass without reference to Maryland’s most significant Lieutenant Governor choice: William Donald Schaefer’s pick of Melvin Steinberg in 1986. Steinberg, then the President of the Maryland Senate, became embroiled in a feud with the hot-tempered Schaefer and was shut out of all administration duties. After losing to Parris Glendening in the 1994 Governor primary, Steinberg endorsed conservative Ellen Sauerbrey four years later. But none of this makes Steinberg the most important number two pick in the state’s history. What is really important is the identity of Steinberg’s successor as Senate President.
You guessed it: Big Daddy Mike Miller. And so out of small acts are empires born!
Update 2: The Examiner and the Gazette have more, including speculation that County Council Member Valerie Ervin might get the job.
Communication Breakdown
Just for the fun of it, I decided to attend the County Council’s meeting to discuss our state delegation’s local bills this morning. I know, I know – politically-addicted bloggers have different definitions of fun than the rest of you. I expected in-depth discussion of state and county functions and the (supposedly) urgent issues in the bills. Instead, all I can hear is Robert Plant screeching Zeppelin’s famous anthem.
But first, we should define the term local bill. Most bills considered by Maryland’s General Assembly apply to all areas of the state. But sometimes the legislature considers local bills, which would only apply in a subordinate jurisdiction (like a county). Local bills are first voted on by the county’s delegation to the General Assembly, and if approved, must then pass the legislature. The Montgomery County speed camera bill is one example.
The County Executive and County Council do not sit mutely while these bills fly around. They take positions on them, as they did this morning. And they are not shy about expressing their opinions! One Delegate was mocked for drafting a bill “after reading about the issue in the newspaper.” Several other bills were derided for conferring new powers intended for “the muscular nation-state of Kensington.” And there was much hilarity when staff attempted to define the “sexual stimulants” referenced in Delegate Saqib Ali’s bill prohibiting them. (How much troublemaking enjoyment could be had in the field research on that one?)
Above all, what really stands out is the utter lack of communication between the state legislators and the County Council about these local bills. One aide told me, “They never talk to us about these bills before introducing them. They just put them in. It’s always been that way.” But sometimes these bills redefine the authority of either the county government or M-NCPPC. Common sense dictates that those entities be asked whether such changes would be helpful prior to submitting such bills. Instead, most of these bills come down with no warning, no consultation and no input beforehand.
That may be good for generating the sort of rampant eye-rolling I witnessed this morning. But it is not good for actually getting things passed.
Crisis in Transportation, Part Two
A flatlining economy. Intolerable and worsening traffic congestion. Falling transportation revenues. Maryland has all of these problems. So does Oregon. The difference is that Oregon’s political leadership is doing something about it.
In December 2007, Oregon Governor Ted Kulongoski (D) saw all of these problems coming. He convened an advisory panel of business leaders, labor leaders, transportation advocates and state and county politicians to recommend the best way to deal with the state’s economic, budgetary and transportation officials. Their report, delivered just this month, contains these findings:
1. The Challenge
The report defines Oregon’s challenge this way:Oregon’s transportation system is not currently equipped to respond to the needs of a global economy, increases in population, rising energy costs and the obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. As Oregonians begin to drive fewer miles in more fuel-efficient vehicles, the revenues from the gas tax and related fees will continue to be less than necessary to meet needs. In fact, ODOT predicts that, within the next few years, revenues will decline in real as well as relative terms. This reduction, combined with the rapid increase in the cost of construction, severely limit Oregon’s capability to maintain and preserve existing infrastructure. Further, the economic slowdown the country is facing reduces reso-urces even more. Oregon’s challenge is to find a sustainable way to fund a transportation system that supports a vibrant economy, creates jobs and offers safe, efficient options for travel.
Every word of that statement applies equally well to Maryland.
2. Recommendations
Among many other things, the committee recommended:
A. A dedicated fund for non-highway investments.
B. Studying per-mile road user fees like vehicle mile taxes (VMTs).
C. Implementing a pilot congestion fee project.
D. Creating regional transportation utility commissions to collect and distribute revenues to projects in those regions.
E. Implementing variable first-time title fees to give buyers of fuel-efficient vehicles lower rates than buyers of gas guzzlers.
F. Providing tax incentives to promote alternative vehicle technologies (like plug-in hybrids).
G. Providing incentives for clean diesel technologies.
H. Supporting “pay-as-you-drive” insurance policies, which would tie premiums to actual auto use.
I. A finance package combining increases in registration fees, title fees and a two-cent gas tax hike resulting in $499 million per year in new funding for transportation.
The report estimated the revenue increases would cost motorists $85-265 per year. It also estimated that poor road conditions cost motorists more than $400 per year in additional vehicle maintenance.
After receiving the report, Governor Kulongoski incorporated many of its recommendations – including the $499 million annual financing package – into his Jobs and Transportation Act of 2009. In proposing the act, the Governor said: One of the most important investments we can make during a slow economy is in public works projects, such as transportation... We have a long bipartisan tradition of investing in transportation in good times and in bad times. Building roads, bridges and public transit is good for the economy and our citizens by putting people back to work.
The Governor estimated that the transportation program would create 2,100 construction jobs every year and called it “the most robust, sustainable, strategic and green transportation package in Oregon history.”
Will Oregon’s Governor get his way? Democrats control 18 seats in the 30-seat Senate and 36 seats in the 60-seat House. The legislation should also receive significant business support since the advisory committee included 25 business representatives among its 69 members. So while the package will perhaps be tweaked in the legislature, some version of it may very well become law. And Governor Kulongoski will be hailed by business and labor alike for creating jobs during a recession.
So what of Maryland? We will conclude in Part Three.
Monday, November 24, 2008
More Details on the MoCo Budget Disaster
The following memo from the Montgomery County Department of Finance to the Montgomery County Council outlines how truly daunting the county's budget challenge is.
MEMORANDUM
November 24, 2008
TO: Michael J. Knapp, President, Montgomery County Council
FROM: Jennifer E. Barrett, Director, Department of Finance
SUBJECT: Early Alert Regarding Fiscal Pressures
The purpose of this memorandum is to provide to the County Council early information regarding the upcoming update of the County’s Fiscal Plan and Finance’s developing revenue estimates. While Finance has some still unanswered questions about the November income tax distribution, we believe that the trends and impacts noted above will result in a major write-down of revenue estimates that could exceed $200 million for FY09 and FY10. This is in addition to the earlier projected gap of $250 million.
This afternoon, Finance will brief the MFP Committee on the latest economic indicators, and will discuss very current information regarding the November income tax distribution from the State, which came in $31 million lower than the estimate provided to the Council in September. As you may recall, the September estimates for the income, property, and transfer and recordation taxes were based on economic information and indicators through August. We noted at that time the update was very limited, including information for only two months of FY09, and was not based on any actual distribution information.
Since that time, we have experienced an unprecedented downturn in multiple sectors of the economy which will have severe, additional impacts on County revenues. Multiple economic trends are expected to have a significant impact on revenues. These include:
• Further weakening in income and employment, affecting income tax withholdings and the base going forward
• A 40% decline in the stock market which will affect capital gains reflected in estimated payments and late filings through at least FY2011
• A decline in home sales and housing prices affecting capital gains and transfer and recordation taxes over a multi-year period
• A decline in investment income related to short term interest rates
• Declines in fuel energy taxes related to a decrease in consumption
Please note that the reduction in revenues of $200 million for FY09 and FY10 noted above does not include further anticipated State Aid reductions. Compounding the local revenue trends is the parallel impact on State of Maryland revenues, which also include the State sales tax, and resulting State budget actions which will also negatively impact the County. Over the coming week, Finance and OMB will process this still developing picture and prepare an update to the Fiscal Plan, which will be presented to the County Council next Tuesday.
Based on the combination of State and other budget reductions with the revenue expectations expressed above, and the multi-year nature of the revenue declines, I believe the Council should be prepared for an at least doubling of the budget gap for FY10 over what has previously been discussed.
My staff and I look forward to briefing you on these matters next week.
cc: Isiah Leggett, County Executive
Duchy Trachtenberg, Chair, MFP Committee
Timothy Firestine, Chief Administrative Officer
Joseph Beach, Director, OMB
Stephen Farber, Council Staff Director
Kathleen Boucher, ACAO
The Hucker Ballot
On Election Day, here's what District 20 Delegate Tom Hucker and his supporters were handing out at the precincts.
We hear three tidbits about this ballot.
1. The rest of the District 20 Delegation was not told of this ballot prior to Election Day. They found out the same way as the rest of the voters: by seeing it handed out!
2. The ballot names Delegate Hucker as the "District 20 Chair, Maryland for Obama." While there was a Montgomery County for Obama organization, four different Obama volunteers we asked - including three inside District 20 - have never heard of a distinct District 20 organization.
3. The ballots were paid for by the Communications Workers of America (CWA) PAC. CWA donated $4,000 to Delegate Hucker on 8/8/06 and another $500 on 1/4/08. Their payment for these ballots may well constitute an in-kind contribution.
And they say my district is a soap opera!
Crisis in Transportation, Part One
Last week was a tough one for Maryland transportation advocates. Let us count the ways.
1. The message from MDOT Secretary John Porcari’s Road Show presentation in Rockville was a gloomy one. After revealing that the state only had three road projects in the entire county under construction, the Secretary told legislators upset over lack of progress on BRAC work, “We know we have to live within our means.” Translation: we have no more money to spend.
2. Even though the state just cut $1.1 billion from its $10.5 billion six-year transportation plan, the Post reported that revenue shortfalls could force more cuts totaling $2.5 billion. According to the Post:Collections of the vehicle titling tax in Maryland -- the equivalent of a sales tax on cars -- were down 17.8 percent from July to October compared with the same period a year ago, according to transportation officials. Revenue from the gas tax was down 6.6 percent from July to September compared with that period...
Secretary Porcari was skeptical that more cuts of that magnitude were necessary. But Delegate Murray Levy (D-28), Vice-Chair of the Transportation and Environment Subcommittee, said, “ I think we're going to get to the point where, if it hasn't been started, it may not get built... It's like one dollar out of three has gone out the door. That's not a trim around the edges. You have to whack projects.”
“Cars sales are poor, and people aren't driving,” said Warren Descheneaux, chief fiscal analyst for the Maryland legislature. “This is going on everywhere.”
The forecast Descheneaux presented to legislators yesterday assumes that Maryland will collect about $1 billion less than expected in titling taxes in the next six years. Gas taxes and other revenue sources that benefit transportation are also expected to be more sluggish than predicted. Maryland's ability to sell bonds for transportation projects is likely to be reduced by $1.2 billion, according to the forecast.
3. Two of our county’s leading state legislators poured cold water on the notion that additional revenues will be raised for transportation. When the Post asked House Majority Leader Kumar Barve (D-17) about prospects for a gas tax increase, he replied, “I don't think people want us to be doing that right now.”
New Montgomery Senate Delegation Chairman Rich Madaleno (D-18) went further. In his statement on the Purple Line, read by an aide at last week’s hearing in Chevy Chase, Senator Madaleno said:It is no secret that our state, like every other, is facing a severe economic downturn from the global financial crisis. With the end of this crisis nowhere in sight, our state will have to make some very serious decisions on our transportation priorities. Our transportation infrastructure across the state requires serious attention and dwindling gas tax and titling tax revenues, combined with this economic downturn, will severely restrict our spending on many worthwhile projects.
House Majority Leader Barve and Senator Madaleno are two of Montgomery County’s highest-ranking representatives in Annapolis. If they believe that no new revenues are available for transportation, that is a serious problem.
Quite frankly, the state does not have the resources to pay for any of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or Light Rail Transit (LRT) options. Over the past decade, the only major new construction projects the state has moved forward with have been funded primarily with toll-backed revenue bonds. There are no alternative funding mechanisms available for this project. As a member of the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee, I feel confident in reporting that no new revenue options appear politically feasible in the foreseeable future.
But Maryland is not the only state with economic, budget and transportation headaches. In Part Two, we will reveal how another state is dealing with those same issues.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Friday, November 21, 2008
Rich Madaleno on the Budget
Following is a statement from Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18), a member of the Senate's Budget and Taxation Committee, on the state's budget.
On Tuesday, the Department of Legislative Services (DLS) briefed the Joint Committee on Spending Affordability concerning the Transportation Trust Fund (TTF) and the state’s capital budget for FY10. Much like the last two Redskins’ games, there were few highlights and the news got worse as time went by. The briefing document is available here.
As you may have read in the Post and Sun, the main news from the briefing concerned the TTF. Even after the $1.1 billion in cuts, DLS estimates the trust fund projection for the next six years to be overstated by $2.3 billion. Put another way, the current six year Consolidated Transportation Program assumes a $5.8 billion capital program. The DLS revised projection would suggest the state can only afford a $3.3 billion capital program. This would limit the state to finishing currently under construction projects and then only proceeding with system preservation projects.
The briefing on the capital budget focused the Capital Debt Affordability Committee’s action to raise our debt limit from 3.2% to 4% of total statewide personal income. It is the first change in more than three decades. Because of the cuts to the transportation capital plan, we are no longer projected to exceed 3.2% over the next five years. This is good news since it will allow this new policy to be reviewed by the credit rating agencies in the abstract when we next go to the bond markets in February. If the rating agencies question the change, it can be reversed without having to constrain our capital program. This also leaves the state with additional debt capacity if we choose to use it for stimulus. Finally, DLS reported that a small property tax increase (one to two cents) will be necessary over the next two years to avoid having to subsidize debt service with general funds. Our current $0.112 property tax is dedicated to paying debt service.
The final piece of bad news concerns the general fund. All indicators suggest that our revenue picture will continue to worsen over the next few months. Data from September indicate that initial claims for unemployment insurance are up 62.6% over the same month last year. Sales tax revenues are down 7.8% for October over last year, and titling tax revenues are down 20%. The chart on page 34 shows that, while the cuts made by the Board of Public Works last month helped, we are still facing a $1.3 billion hole for FY10. Hopefully, Congress will act quickly over the next two months on a rescue plan for the states before Gov. O’Malley has to submit his next budget. It may also be time to seriously consider dipping into the Rainy Day Fund.
Please let me know if you have any questions. Have a nice weekend.
Rich
On Political Pulse
Due to technical problems in the previous showings, Channel 16 is showing a rebroadcast of my interview on Political Pulse on 11/21, 11/22 and 11/23 (Friday, Saturday and Sunday) at 7:30 PM.
Examiner: MoCo's Budget Deficit Could be Much Worse
Kathleen Miller's scoop is a must-read. County Council Member and Management & Fiscal Policy Committee Chair Duchy Trachtenberg believes the county's budget deficit could ultimately be as much as $500 million - much higher than the $251 million estimate that was previously reported.
Chris Van Hollen: Man of the House
By Marc Korman.
Recent indications that Barbara Mikulski is running for reelection and another appointment as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee indicate that Chris Van Hollen is headed for a long and fruitful career in the House of Representatives.
It is no secret that Chris Van Hollen has Senate aspirations, despite his decision not to run for the seat left open by Paul Sarbanes’ retirement in 2006. But his work in the House along with the lack of an open Senate seat in 2010 mean there is less and less reason to seek a Senate seat in the future. Van Hollen should continue to focus his energy on the House of Representatives, where he is on the fast track to House leadership and sits on one of the most powerful House Committees, Ways and Means.
Politics and Leadership
After declining the 2006 Senate run, Van Hollen immersed himself in his duties as one of Rahm Emanuel’s deputies at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm of the House Democrats. The DCCC was successful in 2006, giving the Democrats majority control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1994 election. Van Hollen was rewarded for his work recruiting candidates around the country with the chairmanship of the DCCC when Emanuel moved into House leadership.
The early belief was that Democrats would have difficulty building on their majority. In the 1996 election, two years after their wave election, the Republicans lost two seats. Though the results are not yet final, Democrats managed to increase their majority by at least twenty-three seats.
Van Hollen hoped to follow Emanuel’s path and join the House leadership. With Emanuel vacating his leadership post and the House to work for the Obama Administration, Van Hollen considered a run for Caucus Chairman against Caucus Vice-Chair John Larson (CT), but ended up taking a second appointment as DCCC Chair. To make the grueling task of DCCC Chair a little sweeter, the Speaker also carved out a special position for Van Hollen as a liaison between the House of Representatives and the White House. A Speaker created position has the potential to be just a title and relatively meaningless, but given Van Hollen’s close relationship with Emanuel, he may be able to do a lot with it.
Perhaps more importantly, each Democrat Van Hollen helps as he travels the country is a potential vote for him in a future leadership race. With hard work, he could even some day replace Maryland Congressman Steny Hoyer as House Majority Leader. Building on majorities is difficult, but not unprecedented. Since the 435-member House came into being after the 1912 election, Democrats have managed to build on existing majorities in three or more elections in the 1930s, 1950s, and 1980s. If Van Hollen succeeds in 2010, his chances of leadership will continue to grow.
Policy and Committees
On the policy side, Van Hollen is also well positioned. He sits on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which is important for his district full of federal employees and contractors. But he is also on the prestigious House Ways and Means Committee. He ranks 21st in seniority on the committee, but three of those ahead of him will not be returning in the next Congress and six others are over 70 years old. That means in just a few years Van Hollen could be in striking distance of chairmanship of a subcommittee. Just shy of fifty, Van Hollen can afford to wait a few years.
When Ben Cardin decided to run for the Senate, he did not expect Democrats to win a majority in the House. Had Cardin stayed in the House, he would have been chairman of the Trade Subcommittee, part of the Ways and Means Committee, instead of a freshman Senator. Although now in a statewide office, Cardin would have had much more of an impact on policy as a Subcommittee Chair than as a freshman Senator. I actually believe that had Cardin thought the Democrats would retake the House before he launched his Senate campaign, he would have stayed.
As the years go by and if Democrats maintain their House majority, Van Hollen should focus his efforts on House leadership and substantive committee work. Leave the Senate for someone else and be a man of the House.
WSSC Needs to Get Flushed, Part Two
In Part One, I described the bewildering problems my neighborhood is having with WSSC’s pipe replacement procedures. If we had issues of this kind with any other county agency, we could contact the County Executive’s office, our County Council Members or our regional services center. But WSSC is different. It is a bi-county agency governed by a six-member commission with three members each from Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. The commissioners are appointed by their County Executive and confirmed by their County Council, but they are then charged with overseeing the affairs of the agency. And that is where the trouble starts.
Last February, former General Manager Andrew Brunhart recommended instituting a fee to pay for infrastructure replacement, a proposal killed by the commissioners from Prince George’s County. According to the Washington Post, Brunhart told the commission that failure to pass the infrastructure fee “communicated to WSSC and to our ratepayers that decaying infrastructure is acceptable to the governing body” and that he would he would “recommend dropping the words ‘entrusted,’ ‘reliable’ and ‘clean’ from the WSSC mission statement.” Brunhart had previously said that hundreds of homes in Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties were at risk of cataclysmic pipe failure that would generate an explosion like “a missile.”
After Brunhart’s departure, the commission deadlocked along county lines and could not agree on a successor. WSSC’s leaders could agree on one thing, however: Montgomery County’s Inspector General was denied access to the agency’s records for an audit. Next came a giant pipe break in Derwood and direct intervention by the two County Executives in finding a new General Manager. But after repeated delays, no one knows when a new General Manager will be hired. And now Montgomery's commission members have told the Gazette that they "have a lack of trust in our fellow commissioners."
Even the best General Manager cannot compensate for WSSC’s biggest problem: a divided commission. The rate dispute revealed that the commissioners have different agendas along county lines. The Prince George’s members successfully battled against a $6 monthly fee for infrastructure replacement because it was regressive. Montgomery’s members were willing to adopt the flat fee but not a Prince George’s proposal to tie the fee to property values, thereby shifting most of the infrastructure cost to Montgomery. The end result: no fee at all. If the two boards were separate, would they have been able to develop different infrastructure proposals covering each county by itself?
Some suggest having the Governor appoint a tie-breaking commissioner while others would like to see a complete divorce between the counties. An alternative model for WSSC is the Maryland-National Capital Park and Planning Commission (M-NCPPC), a bi-county agency that is comprised of two autonomous boards that each oversee county-specific park and planning departments.
But if this agency is not reformed one way or another, things are going to get a lot worse. And then more pipes – and tempers – will explode.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Ross Capon's Testimony on the Purple Line
Ross Capon became Executive Director of the National Association of Railroad Passengers (NARP) in 1976 and was named President this year.
Statement of National Association of Railroad Passengers And Ross Capon, NARP President and a Bethesda resident
Before the
Purple Line Alternatives Analysis/Draft EIS Public Hearing
Chevy Chase, Maryland
November 18, 2008
Support for Purple Line Light Rail Transit
Thank you for this opportunity to speak.
As a co-founder with Harry Sanders of the Action Committee for Transit back in 1986, I had no idea that, 22 years later, there would still be a question about whether to build light rail on the former B&O freight line—and that I would be telling you at this hearing that my oldest son, a Maryland senior and daily commuter, has spent a good part of the last four years on the Beltway. I hope my eight-year-old, should he attend Maryland, will have better public transportation.
The Purple Line will bring important travel-choice and environmental benefits. We urge that it be built as rapidly as possible.
The Purple Line will enhance the usefulness—and extend the reach of—Metrorail due to connections at Bethesda, Silver Spring, College Park and New Carrollton.
We are pleased that the University of Maryland administration has agreed to the right-of-way that the student government pressed for and which will insure maximum usefulness of the service for the university community.
Bus Rapid Transit is not the right answer. A GAO study found light rail 15.5% less costly to operate than bus. Vehicle life-cycle costs favor rail. Federal Transit Administration will assist in bus replacements at 12 years, rail vehicles at 25 years (and rail vehicles can operate for 30-35 years).
Rail attracts riders by virtue of greater comfort—that is, generally more on-board space per passenger and a smoother ride—and better system identity. Rail also is safer, particularly in bad weather, and more reliable. In a February, 2006, storm, New Jersey Transit shut down its entire bus system but not the light rail lines in Newark and Jersey City. Boston had to remove articulated buses from its Silver Line because they fishtailed dangerously in the snow.
Our impression is that Bus Rapid Transit, for the most part, is supported by people who really don’t want anything at all, or whose main goal is to keep transit of any kind off the Georgetown Branch right-of-way in Bethesda, placing it instead on Jones Bridge Road where it will inevitably serve lower passenger volumes.
To people (and the Columbia Country Club) who have worked hard against light rail, I recommend a visit to Newton, Massachusetts. I grew up there, on the “wrong side of the tracks” (the former Boston & Albany mainline, now MBTA commuter rail and the Mass Turnpike Extension). However, on the city’s south side, there is the Highland Branch which, in the late 1950s was transformed from a low-frequency diesel railroad to light rail (Riverside branch of MBTA’s Green Line). This service is highly successful and an asset to property values. The line bisects the historic Woodland Gulf Club, founded in 1896.
It is a sad commentary on transportation priorities in Maryland that, even today, we are asking whether to build the Purple Line, and holding hearings on cutting MARC train and MTA transit services, and seeing continuing cuts on Ride-On bus service, but construction on the InterCounty Connector moves along. I have asked Maryland DOT, and not received an answer, about how the budget cuts were allocated among the modal administrations, and whether the same percentage cuts were applied to the Highway Administration and the MTA, even though the former is huge and the latter is smaller and more environmentally beneficial.
Thank you for considering our views.
Gigi Godwin's Testimony on the Purple Line
Georgette "Gigi" Godwin has been President and CEO of the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce since 2006.
Good Evening. I am Gigi Godwin, President of the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce. Thank you for the opportunity to testify tonight in support of the Purple Line. The business community supports those transportation projects that do the most to relieve congestion, promote economic development, and contribute to the long term economic and environmental vibrancy and sustainability of our community.
For those reasons, the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce supports a Light Rail Purple Line. We believe that this is the best long term investment that the Maryland and Federal Transit Administrations could make in our community. A Light Rail Purple Line will provide a reliable, efficient and environmentally sound mode of transportation for our employees, our students and all our citizens. A high quality mode of transportation is a critical component of attracting and retaining high tech employers and high tech jobs. And, finally, a Light Rail Purple Line will provide the missing link in our regional transit connectivity.
Therefore, we urge the selection of a Light Rail mode along the Georgetown Branch Alignment as the locally preferred alternative.
Reliability and Efficiency
In order for a new transit system to improve the convenience and connectivity of those who ride it everyday, it must be reliable and efficient. It must provide significant decreases in travel times via car and it must be able to reliably deliver on those promises for decreased travel times. The Light Rail options outlined in the DEIS significantly outperform the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) options in both reliability and efficiency.
Given that both the low and medium BRT systems would use shared lanes and existing roadways, reliability of these systems decrease as traffic continues to increase, with those buses stuck in the same traffic as the cars on the road, offering commuters no incentive to leave their cars and use the Purple Line. Light rail, however, with its faster speeds and dedicated right of way along the Georgetown branch trail, offers significant efficiency AND reliability, with travel times of 9 minutes from Bethesda to Silver Spring as opposed to the 25 minutes the Bus Rapid Transit system would offer.
For businesses and their employees, time is money, and the only way these employees will use the system is if they know they can rely on it to get them to their destination, whether it be work, school, or daycare, in a predictable and short period of time.
Economic Development Benefits
Economic Development along the Purple Line’s East/West corridor will prove to be a major benefit of the transit project. Many stations have been identified as opportunities for economic development including Chevy Chase Lakes, and the Takoma/Langely area, which is part of a joint master plan between Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. This kind of economic development is consistent with both Montgomery County and State of Maryland Strategy for transit oriented development that creates environmentally friendly pedestrian communities. Light rail is preferable to Bus Rapid Transit because of the fixed investment by government in the infrastructure, which gives potential buyers of property, both business and residential, a confidence that property will continue to appreciate because of proximity to the light rail station.
Regional Connectivity
The Purple Line plays a critical role in connecting our region’s outdated transportation system – a system based primarily on assumptions of employee’s work habits and commuter patterns that were true 30 years ago, but have drastically changed in the past three decades. As our economy has changed, so too has our workforce, and the way we work. A purple line light rail link is CRITICAL to ensuring new regional connectivity. This new regional connectivity will allow our community to continue to grow and thrive in our new, diverse, growing economy.
Thank you for the opportunity to get the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce’s comments regarding the AA/DEIS on the record. We look forward to working with the MTA to make this project a reality.
George Leventhal's Testimony on the Purple Line
At-large County Council Member George Leventhal is a member of the Council's Transportation, Infrastructure, Energy and Environment Committee and is currently serving his second term.
• Increased convenience and improved quality of life.
• Reduced commute times.
• Alternatives to the automobile. A way to get out of traffic.
• Access to jobs, shopping, entertainment and education.
• Decreased greenhouse gas emissions.
• Less dependence on imported petroleum.
• Closer links to our great research university, the University of Maryland at College Park.
• A direct connection between both branches of the Red Line, the Green Line, the Orange Line, three MARC train lines, and AMTRAK
• Protection, enhancement and completion of the Capital Crescent Trail.
• Transit-oriented economic development, smart growth and community revitalization inside the Beltway.
What other public investment now underway provides so many benefits for the citizens of Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties?
We need the Purple Line now.
We need to recognize the stiff competition we will face from other parts of the country that are also seeking federal approval for transit projects. We can’t afford to take for granted that there will be a Purple Line.
Despite the options under study in the Draft Environmental Impact Statement, the real choice that confronts us is not between rail and bus, or between an at-grade system versus an underground system. Because the competition is so stiff, our choice is between cost-effective light rail and no transit improvement at all.
We must unify – Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, our congressional delegation, our state senators and state delegates, County Executives and County Councils. We must speak with a single voice and make it clear that we want the Purple Line.
Because if we don’t, we will end up with nothing at all.
And what would that mean? With no transit improvement, travel times between Silver Spring and Bethesda will increase from the current 20 minutes to 35 minutes by 2030. Between Bethesda and College Park, from the current 49 minutes to 81 minutes. Traffic congestion, air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions will all get worse. However, medium investment light rail will make travel times considerably better in 2030 than they are today. From Silver Spring to Bethesda, only 9 minutes. From Bethesda to College Park, only 34 minutes. With concomitant improvements in energy use and greenhouse gas reduction.
I want to thank Governor Martin O’Malley, Secretary of Transportation John Porcari, Maryland Transit Administrator Paul Wiedefeld, Project Manager Mike Madden and all the staff who have worked so hard to get us this close to realizing this vision. Mike Madden and his team have held hundreds of community meetings and listened carefully to concerns over alignments, design elements, buffering, landscaping, noise, placement of the trail and many other issues. The DEIS is much better as a result of all the input they have received, and the state’s preferred final alternative will be even better as a result of the testimony they are hearing this month. Legitimate concerns of neighborhoods and trail users are being addressed.
Even as we respond to these important, but relatively narrow, issues, we must keep the big picture in mind. We cannot allow valid concerns over details that can be relatively easily addressed to convey a message that we don’t actually support the vision that the Purple Line represents: a vision of improved mobility; a cleaner environment; invigorated, walkable communities; and a beautiful, safe hiker-biker trail. We must not permit a cacophony of disparate voices to suggest that our region doesn’t really know what it wants.
We may not have unanimity of opinion. In public policy, unanimity is very rare. But I believe there is a clear, strong and growing consensus in Montgomery County behind light rail on the Master Plan alignment. Based upon the input I have received throughout my years in community activism and elected office, I believe that my constituents overwhelmingly want the Purple Line. They want it to be light rail because they perceive that as a higher-quality commuting experience than bus transit.
With a new President taking office in January, Barack Obama, committed to federal investments in infrastructure to stimulate our lagging economy, 2009 will be an extraordinarily opportune time to ask for what we want. And the stronger consensus we have around our preferred option, the better our chances of winning federal funds.
If we ask for what we don’t want, we might get it! And if we aren’t clear about what we are asking for, we might get nothing at all.
WSSC Needs to Get Flushed, Part One
Of all the agencies we have to deal with, none is more frustrating than the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission (WSSC). Shielded from accountability to county government, overseen by a gridlocked board and nearly leaderless, this rusted-out, leak-riddled organization is a growing problem for the citizens of Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties.
Before delving into the governance issues plaguing WSSC, consider the experience of just one neighborhood: mine. Like other areas, my neighborhood is undergoing pipe replacement, a project that will last well into next year. A WSSC representative promised 24-hour access to a meeting of our civic association last year if anything went wrong. But things have been working out differently than promised.
Here’s one example from our many listserv posts complaining about low water pressure and poor service:We live on [street name withheld], and our water never came back on after the scheduled shut off on Wednesday. By Thursday evening, we were rather concerned that we still had no water. We checked with neighbors. They all had water. So we called WSSC.
Neighbors often try to help each other figure out how to deal with WSSC. Here is one of the replies to the above account:
They gave us the run around. After the first call, it was “air in the pipes.” We were instructed to close our main, open the spigots in the house to let the air out, and then *slowly* re-open the main. We did this, and nothing happened.
Then, we called WSSC a second time and told them they result. They promised a person would come out to check our situation “in the next 3 hours.” This person has not shown up yet.
Then, we tried something on a whim. WSSC has connected a hose to our outside spigot. We turned that on, and the result was that we got a trickle of water from our inside spigots. After thinking about it for a while, we then tried shutting our inside main valve. We now have full water pressure.
Nobody at WSSC ever told us to turn on our outside spigot or to turn off our inside water mains. Did other people get this info?
Finally, we called WSSC for a third time. This time, the operator told us (literally) to call a plumber because the problem is not WSSC’s.
Conclusions:
1. While they are replacing the mains on [street name withheld], water flows into the house in the *reverse* direction, from the outside spigot (but nobody told us this).
2, While they are replacing the mains, the inside water main needs to be closed.
3. The operators at WSSC are incompetent.On Tuesday, after the water did not come on as promised, I called the Maintenance Service 24-hour number to check about the situation and then, when I was told there was a valve problem, I complained about the lack of notification to the affected families. The woman did not want to deal with my fussing, so she told me to call the correspondence office.
This is not isolated behavior at WSSC. The agency has severe problems of governance and accountability that go straight to the top. We will have more in Part Two.
So I did today. That woman took my complaint about that as well as a second one related to your situation. Last Friday, when I went out my door about 8AM, I noticed dripping by my outside spigot. I notice a crew working (I think in front of your house) and went over to have them check the drip. When there, they attempted to get water into my house, but could not. That's when a supervisor told me to open my spigot from the inside and turn off the valves by the water meter. When I did that, my water worked fine. Then I was asked to do the same for my neighbor. So my second complaint was to ask why WSSC or the contractor did not notify houses with inside water meters what to do to get the water into their houses. If I hadn't had a drip, I would have had the same problem as you did.
I suggest that everyone who has had problems call this complaint department. Maybe if WSSC gets deluged, they will do something about communicating better about how to deal with this mess we have.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
On Political Pulse
Congressman Chris Van Hollen from Maryland's Eighth District will be on the Political Pulse TV Show in Montgomery County on:
Thursday, November 20th at 9 p.m.
Tuesday, November 25th at 9:30 p.m. and
Thursday, November 27th at 9:00 p.m.
Topics that will be discussed include:
-the Government's bailout efforts;
-the Election
-the priorities of Congress when Barack Obama becomes President; and
-the Iraq War.
Political Pulse is on Channel 16 TV in Montgomery County.
David Lublin's Testimony on the Purple Line
Following is the testimony of Town of Chevy Chase Council Member David Lublin, who is a Professor at American University and is the founder of Maryland Politics Watch.
Thank you for the opportunity to speak with you about this important issue today. Many others will speak about the need to protect the Trail—vital green space in a rapidly growing area—and the need for public transit. However, I plan to focus on serious concerns that the Town of Chevy Chase has regarding the ridership and cost estimates in the DEIS. As will be outlined in the Town’s written submission, these estimates seriously underestimate costs and overestimate ridership for the five options on the Trail. At the same time, MTA has failed to optimize the Jones Bridge Road Bus Rapid Transit alignment despite repeated requests from the Town. Changes clearly need to be made if the EIS is to fulfill the legal requirement to optimize all options and estimate costs and ridership accurately.
First, we remain concerned that the ridership estimates for the five options on the Trail continue to include riders from beyond the half-mile limit in violation of accepted transportation planning standards despite repeated efforts by the Town to point out this error. In response to enquiries, MTA replied that it had adhered to “the model” but this vague answer suggests that it continues to include riders from outside the appropriate catchment area.
Second, the ridership estimates continue to assume a free transfer to Metro and fail to reflect that the cost of the transfer must be borne by either passengers—thus reducing ridership—or by the State—thus increasing operating costs. Again, though the Town has repeatedly pointed out this problem, MTA continues to assume a free transfer even though WMATA’s current practice is to charge for intermodal transfers and FTA requires the analysis to reflect the current practice. In addition, the model fails to follow standard industry practice of including time penalties for transfers. Such penalties account for the amount of time it takes to complete a transfer—including wait time—plus the added inconvenience and anxiety associated with transferring.
Third, there are two significant costs to be borne by the County which appear to be outside the Purple Line cost estimates, raisings questions as to the true costs of the Purple Line. One is the $60 million southern elevator connection at Bethesda Metro. MTA fails to include costs for the elevator in its budget for the master plan light-rail options and it is unclear what credit the County will get for providing this needed amenity. Yet, the costs to put a new Metro connection at National Naval Medical Center are included in that alignments’ budget pushing the costs of the Jones Bridge Road option up. The other is the cost for building the Trail–we’ve heard estimates between $12-14 million—which the DEIS states will be borne by the County. Those costs are not easily isolated in the Purple Line budget and it is unclear if the estimated costs include the many long ramps, grading, retaining walls and landscaping in their analysis. The EIS should contain an accurate estimate of costs and benefits and the County should know exactly what it is committing to.
Despite MTA’s best efforts to produce favorable numbers for the light rail options on the trail, these options remain like horses which barely qualify for a race and have little chance of finishing in the money—or receiving federal funds. If we really want to move the Purple Line forward, MTA and the EIS need to take a more serious look at the Jones Bridge Road option and to optimize it correctly. The projected growth of the Woodmont Triangle, the BRAC process, and the enormous growth of the National Naval Medical Center make this imperative.
MTA has repeatedly explained that it has relied on the accepted Council of Governments model in estimating ridership. However, MTA has amazingly relied on a pre-BRAC version of this model. If the changes caused by BRAC were minor, this wouldn’t matter much. However, BRAC is going to produce enormous increases in traffic. The Purple Line is an ideal opportunity to address this problem by providing a one-seat ride to Medical Center and Bethesda.
Yet, MTA has not optimized this option. Unbelievably, MTA’s estimates have the supposedly optimized version of Bus Rapid Transit on Jones Bridge Road running at a slower speed than the slowest local bus on the same road today. MTA also has not done a reasonable study of traffic signal priority for this alternative, which is a key feature of Bus Rapid Transit. Moreover, MTA still has this option taking a slower path than any of the other options east of Jones Mill Road.
Finally, the DEIS repeatedly states that the Trail was purchased as a “transitway” and in the Master Plan. Reality is far cloudier. The formerly little-used train right-of-way was purchased as part of the “Rails to Trails” program. The Montgomery County Master Plan calls for a one-lane trolley—not the two-lane light rail proposed by the Purple Line. And the $10 million used to purchase the Trail includes the segments now part of the Capital Crescent Trail between Bethesda and DC. Does MTA claim that this portion of the Trail is also reserved for a future light rail network as well?
Thanks again for providing myself and the Town the opportunity to participate in this process. Instead of promoting an option which wrecks two parks—the Capital Crescent Trail and Woodmont Plaza—for the price of one light rail, the EIS needs to reexamine the Jones Bridge Road Bus Rapid Transit option so that we can get two transit lines—the Purple Line and Corridor Cities Transitway—for the price of one.
Al Carr's Testimony on the Purple Line
Delegate Al Carr (D-18) was appointed to the House of Delegates in 2007 and is a former member of the Town of Kensington Council.
Good evening.
My name is Al Carr. I live in Kensington and I represent the citzens of District 18 in the Maryland House of Delegates.
I have been following this debate for nearly twenty years.
I support the Purple Line.
But I do not agree with those who say that we should limit our options to light rail as the only mode and to the Capital Crescent Trail as the only route.
To achieve the best result, we need to make sure that we can think outside the purple box.
In planning for the Purple Line we need to:
Keep our options open
Preserve and expand the Trail
Address growth at the Bethesda Naval Hospital due to BRAC
Address local traffic problems that the ICC will bring, and
Be prepared for all financial scenarios
A true Bus Rapid Transit solution along Jones Bridge Road needs to be added to the alternatives being considered.
The newest transit line in North America opened a few weeks ago in Cleveland Ohio where I was born. My son and I plan to ride it next week when we visit grandma for Thanksgiving.
Cleveland is no stranger to light rail. Unlike the Washington area, they never dismantled their light rail network. They considered light rail during the planning for their new line. But they ultimately chose bus rapid transit.
They found BRT to be an efficient, environmentally friendly way to move people, and to support economic development while being twice as cost effective as light rail.
In these times of extreme financial challenge, we need to be prepared for a range of options with a range of price tags.
Bus Rapid Transit on Jones Bridge Road is an option that will preserve the Capital Crescent Trail. This is a heavily used, wonderful urban park that brings people together.
I don't know how many of the people in this room have actually lived next to a light rail line. Well I have. And I can tell you that there is no better way to forever divide a neighborhood and keep people separated. And that is what will happen if we put light rail on the Capital Crescent Trail.
The entire Connecticut Avenue corridor including Kensington has traffic problems that are about to get worse. This corridor suffers from pedestrian fatalities, extreme congestion and dangerous cut through traffic. All of these problems will be made worse by growth at the Naval Hospital due to BRAC and by the added traffic caused by the Intercounty Connector.
If we fail to consider Bus Rapid Transit on Jones Bridge Road, we will miss an opportunity to address these problems. And we will continue a pattern of piecemeal transportation planning rather than coordination.
Let's not paint ourselves into a purple corner. Let's keep our options open, so that the end result will be a smarter Purple Line.
Rich Madaleno's Testimony on the Purple Line
The following statement from Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18) was read by his aide, Scott Tsikerdanos, at last night's state Purple Line hearing in Chevy Chase.
Statement by Sen. Richard S. Madaleno, Jr.
Presented at AA/DEIS Purple Line Hearing
November 18, 2008
During the course of my 20 years in and around the General Assembly, I have seen and heard all of the arguments for and against the Purple Line. After many years of discussion, planning, and community outreach, I still have very serious reservations about this project, from a fiscal standpoint, from an operational standpoint, and with regards to the effects it will have on the communities in our region.
It is no secret that our state, like every other, is facing a severe economic downturn from the global financial crisis. With the end of this crisis nowhere in sight, our state will have to make some very serious decisions on our transportation priorities. Our transportation infrastructure across the state requires serious attention and dwindling gas tax and titling tax revenues, combined with this economic downturn, will severely restrict our spending on many worthwhile projects.
Quite frankly, the state does not have the resources to pay for any of the Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) or Light Rail Transit (LRT) options. Over the past decade, the only major new construction projects the state has moved forward with have been funded primarily with toll-backed revenue bonds. There are no alternative funding mechanisms available for this project. As a member of the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee, I feel confident in reporting that no new revenue options appear politically feasible in the foreseeable future.
Because there are, at best, limited state funds available for this project, the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) assumes a local contribution but does not suggest what shape or size that it may be. I think it is irresponsible for the state to propose this project without informing either local county government of what its share might be. I would also note that no local government in the Baltimore region has been asked to make a direct contribution towards the construction or maintenance of their light rail system. Questions about the state’s ability to pay should alone prevent the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) from allowing this project to move forward.
It was only a little over a year ago that the state of Minnesota saw a major bridge collapse during the evening rush hour, killing 13 people. This summer, a serious accident on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge led to the discovery of corrosion on the bridge’s steel reinforcements, requiring emergency repair. It is clear that other bridges, overpasses, and tunnels in our state will require expensive maintenance in the future.
From a statewide perspective, this transportation project would take the lion’s share of transportation investment money for the foreseeable future. The estimated price tag on the high investment light rail transit is nearly $2 billion. Even with very optimistic ridership numbers, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) is estimating a daily load of 34,000 round trip riders, of which, 27,200 – 80 percent – will be drawn from some other form of mass transit. Are the remaining 6,800 new riders enough to justify the cost of the system, which at nearly $2 billion, works out to roughly $294,000 per rider new to mass transit? It would be cheaper to buy these 6,800 people new residences closer to their jobs.
The communities that will be impacted by this project, in whatever form it takes, will also undoubtedly be changed forever. As a frequent patron and supporter of the Capital Crescent Trail, I am disturbed by the potential impact a light rail line would have on this tract of parkland. MTA has provided many artists’ renderings of what the trail would look like with the rail line, but has avoided the most glaring part of this equation: most of the trees and accompanying tree canopy would have to be removed to accommodate a large set of wires. The trail would be never be the same and would never be able to thrive as it does now.
Personally, I find MTA’s comments about the trail highly disingenuous. The construction of the LRT alternatives will devastate the trail. It is clear that light rail and heavy forestation do not work well together. Ironically, today’s Baltimore Sun reports that the northern half of the Baltimore light rail system has been shutdown indefinitely as falling leaves are creating unsafe conditions on the tracks. The Sun reports that this problem is on the section of the line that “follows a narrow, old railroad right of way along the Jones Falls Expressway through forested parkland.” The same design problems exist here. To limit potential tree and leaf damage to both the overhead wires and tracks, MTA will have to continually trim the trees that border the right-of-way. A once green and enjoyable park facility will be irreparably destroyed. While this point alone may not be reason enough to stop the LRT or BRT alternatives, the government should be upfront with its citizens about the impact of this decision. Trivializing the impacts along the trail has done immeasurable harm to the reputation of this proposed project.
Beyond today’s operating problems caused by leaves, MTA has a checkered history planning and operating light rail. The Baltimore system, after nearly 20 years of operation, has realized less than half of the ridership MTA estimated during construction. The light rail line has become a money pit with the state having to subsidize roughly 75% of its operating costs. The MTA Administrator during the Glendening Administration once testified that he would close it if it were not for the capital costs already sunk in it. The Baltimore light rail line does not attract riders because it is not interchangeable with the pre-existing heavy rail line and moves slowly along city streets. Yet, MTA is proposing making the same billion dollar mistake again. Light rail is not currently a part of the highly successful Washington Metro system. LRT will require new cars, new maintenance facilities, and new mechanics that can never be integrated with our existing system unlike the new rail extension currently under construction in Northern Virginia. And, in many places along the proposed LRT alignment, the trains will be slowed by operation on roads. This will not be an effective or efficient use of federal, state, or local taxpayers’ money.
With little chance to expand on the current heavy rail system, I think it is clear that buses are the future of transit expansion in this metropolitan region. While the state includes new and denser development as a potential benefit of the LRT alternatives, there is no guarantee any of this development would occur. Decades after opening, many of the existing Metro stations lack new or dense development. Building it will not, as they say, ensure that “they will come.”
Greatly improved and expanded bus service will best serve the development and commuter patterns of our region. On this point I would note that the TSM alternative provides more than a third of the benefit with less than a tenth of the cost of the high investment LRT. For decades we have overlooked and under-invested in bus transit in our region. With roughly half of the cost of the state’s share in the LRT alternatives, we could probably divert more single occupancy vehicle (SOV) trips than estimated in the DEIS. My colleagues and I have focused too much time and attention on high-profile potential rail projects and not enough on sensible bus improvements. An investment in new vehicles and new technology could makes buses much more attractive to commuters. We need to expand bus transit into less dense existing and growing communities outside the Beltway more than we need to sink billions into transit to support a dreamlike vision of future high-density communities.
In the headquarters of the Baltimore Jewish Charities is a sign proclaiming “Our parents built for us; we build for our children.” This sentiment briefly but profoundly summarizes the feelings most of us have about our wonderful community and region. We were granted a world-class subway system by our farsighted “parents”- the leaders and activists of the 1950’s, 60’s and 70’s. We now wish to leave our children with a similar legacy. While many understandably believe this Purple Line proposal is worthy of this goal, I believe it has too many shortcomings, too many unanswered questions, and too many optimistic assumptions to move forward. In the end, I fear its only legacy will be yet one more unpaid bill left to our children. Instead, we should leave them a flexible, efficient, user-friendly, and affordable bus network that can more easily adjust to future needs and challenges.
Former O’Malley Aide’s New Job: Blocking Crackdown on Tax Cheats
A couple months ago, we brought you the story of Sean Malone, a member of Governor Martin O’Malley’s inner circle. Malone was formerly the Governor’s labor liaison and was responsible for, among other things, representing the administration’s position on labor bills. He now has a new job: making sure misclassifying contractors do not pay their fair share to the state.
Former O'Malley labor liaison and current lobbyist Sean Malone.
Employee misclassification is a scam used by contractors to cheat on labor costs. By misclassifying workers as independent contractors, employers can avoid paying workers compensation, unemployment insurance, social security and Medicare taxes and even income tax withholding. Other states have found these scams cost hundreds of millions of dollars in lost revenues.
In the last general session, Delegate Cheryl Glenn (D-45) introduced a bill to crack down on the practice. The administration persuaded her to withdraw her bill to pave the way for its own bill on the same subject. As labor liaison, it was Sean Malone’s job to shepherd that bill through the legislature. But Malone and the administration allowed the bill to die in committee, letting cheating contractors off the hook. And who lobbied against the bill? Lisa Harris Jones, a lobbyist on the payroll of the virulently anti-union Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC). Months later, Ms. Jones hired Malone and even changed the name of her firm to Harris Jones and Malone LLC to spotlight her new star.
ABC lobbyist and Malone employer Lisa Harris Jones.
In the wake of the collapse of its effort to deal with cheating contractors, the administration is now holding meetings with a taskforce of stakeholders to determine what to do next. Sean Malone’s position on behalf of his clients is a simple one: no bill is needed. That’s right – he is now lobbying against an administration priority that he was once responsible for moving.
The case in favor of a crackdown has been ably made by Labor Secretary Tom Perez. During the last session, he testified in favor of the administration’s misclassification bill and said the following:Misclassification hurts more than the workers themselves. Competing law-abiding employers are put at a distinct competitive disadvantage, as they have a higher cost of business simply because they're playing by the rules. And they're doubly disadvantaged because underpayment of unemployment insurance taxes and workers' compensation premiums by employers who misclassify means law-abiding employers pay more. In industries where misclassification is most prevalent, such as construction, employers who cheat are able to underbid honest businesses, giving the unscrupulous employers an unfair advantage.
But this is an issue that rises above the heads of Tom Perez and Sean Malone and goes directly to the question of what the O’Malley administration truly cares about. During the special session, the administration pushed through a $1.3 billion tax increase, most of it in regressive sales tax hikes. Now, the state is facing a $1.3 billion deficit and there seems to be little alternative to cutbacks in education, health care and public safety. These actions are required by the state’s troubled economy and resulting budget problems.
But it is intolerable for Marylanders to be asked to make these sacrifices while lobbyists connected to the Governor block any effort to crack down on tax cheats. Basic fairness demands that the state do everything in its power to make cheating contractors pay up before asking anything more from the rest of us.
Disclosure: While the author is the Assistant to the General President of the Carpenters Union, this post is not an official statement on behalf of the union.
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Maryland Teachers Fight Against Education Cuts
The Maryland State Teachers Association (MSTA) is running this ad in the Baltimore and Washington media markets. The Baltimore Sun has more.
The Defining Crisis of Weast's Era: Teachers, Salaries, and Workload
By Eric Luedtke.
For those of you on a time crunch, here’s the summary: Teachers are essential to student success. Teachers are probably losing most if not all of their scheduled cost of living adjustment. This could lead to the loss of good teachers in the school system. To offset the loss of the COLA, the school system needs to start being serious about streamlining the work of teachers so they can spend their time serving students rather than in makework or unnecessary tasks.
Crises are defining moments for leaders in the public sphere. Lincoln wouldn't have been Lincoln without the Civil War, Washington would have remained a little known veteran of the French and Indian War if no shots had been fired on Lexington Green, and FDR's greatness was brought to light in his response to the dual crises of the Great Depression and World War Two. Today's history lesson ends there, so don't run off yet, because there is a point to this in the here and now.
There's a local application of the crisis rule that we're beginning to see play out in our own community, in the schools whose success has been so central to Montgomery County's prosperity over the last few decades. For nearly a decade, MCPS has been in what can only be called the Weast Era. It's been an era of relatively rapid changes and reforms, an era where the system refocused itself around priorities like closing the achievement gap, doing a better job addressing the needs of students with special needs and English language learners, and crafting an elite instructional workforce to help meet those goals. It’s been a very successful era, but now, for the first time in more than a decade, forces outside our local control are threatening that success. How Dr. Weast, the Board of Education, and the County Council respond will quite possibly define their careers as public servants.
The Weast Era has coincided with a long period of economic prosperity, with the exception of the slowdown after 9/11. Consistent and sustainable funding is essential to the success of a school system, so these have been good years for MCPS. When the money is easy to come by, it's relatively easy to drive reform in schools. The dollars Dr. Weast secured through a decade of prosperity have paid for the full implementation of all-day kindergarten, major class size reductions in elementary schools, and a variety of reforms-in-progress in middle and high schools. He has also, in conjunction with the board of education and the unions, developed a salary and benefit package aimed at making sure the best educators work in Montgomery County. This is partially a competitive necessity - we're surrounded by other high-paying jurisdictions - and partially a way to offset falling morale due to increasing workload.
Weast himself acknowledges that he and the leadership of the school system ask a lot of their employees, and that the impressive salary increases over the last few years are designed to offset that. As his reforms have been put in place, the professionals who implement them have been asked to work harder and harder every year. We've learned new ways of using data to drive decision making at the classroom, school, and system level. We've mastered new technology in the classroom and system-wide. We've found new methods for communicating with parents. We've retooled the school system to allow students with special needs more access to mainstream settings. But one thing has not changed - the amount of time we have to get all of this done. The school day and work day are unchanged from when I was a student in MCPS, under Dr. Weast’s predecessor.
There has been some grumbling, to be sure, though the vast majority of staff have accepted the reforms and come to value many of the changes. But grumbling was never the concern. The concern has always been the effect of this on staff retention. To provide a good education, we need good teachers. If increased workload started driving good teachers out of the system, the reforms would be useless. So the school system leadership under Weast made a calculation – pay high salaries to teachers to keep them in the classroom. It’s helped to keep good teachers in the classroom through ten years of aggressive, sometimes disruptive reforms.
But large salary increases no longer seem to be a possibility. The school system unions have gone back to the bargaining table in the hope of trying to solve MCPS’ budget problems before they get out of hand. This will almost certainly entail a partial or full loss of the 5% cost of living adjustment scheduled for the next school year. That’s money that was already promised to teachers that they now won’t get.
This loss will be a blow to morale. It will start some teachers looking for jobs in other places, like in the federal government where many employees are still getting a 5% COLA. Unless he wants to watch his reforms unravel around his ears, Dr. Weast is going to have to do something about that.
The only solution is to take a serious look at workload. There isn’t money for improvements in salaries or benefits. And there isn’t money for the sort of big-picture workload reductions many teachers would like to see, like smaller class sizes. But there are low or no cost steps the system could take that will have profound effect on the workload of teachers, while not in any way hurting the education of students. In fact, done right, streamlining the work of our educators may make them better able to serve students.
Step one is making attention to workload as central a part of the system’s operation as attention to money. Any time required by a new initiative needs to be offset by time or workload reductions in some other area. And any central office bureaucrats whose actions affect the work of direct service providers need to take a serious look at how their actions may impact workload.
Beyond that commitment, low or no-cost impact on workload will only come through a series of small, incremental improvements. E-mail has rendered many whole-staff meetings obsolete, so those can be reduced. Advances in file-sharing networks would make it possible for the school system to allow teachers to share lessons and materials electronically, if they would only make such a space available and drop the condescending insistence that every lesson a teacher writes needs to be vetted by central office staff. There needs to be a serious analysis of paperwork to eliminate those things which are little more than busywork for frontline educators whose time is better spent serving children. And the system needs to stop doing an end run around contract by allowing some schools on block schedules to force teachers to teach 6 classes instead of five – it only stresses teachers and reduces their ability to serve students. If the system is really committed to eight-period blocks, they need to pay the marginally more expensive cost of 5/8 schedules and give teachers the time to plan collaboratively and participate in teacher-driven professional development.
This recession will be Dr. Weast’s defining test as a leader in MCPS. On the one hand, there is the possibility that loss of salaries will lead to loss of good teachers and the system will start to slide backwards. On the other, there is the possibility that by changing tactics, the system will be able to continue to attract and retain exceptional educators, and maintain its path down the road to success for all students. For the sake of Montgomery County’s children, I hope that Dr. Weast and the other leaders of the school system will pass the test.
Eric Luedtke is a teacher at A. Mario Loiederman Middle School and a member of the board of the Montgomery County Education Association.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Show Us the Money!
Maryland Department of Transportation (MDOT) Secretary John Porcari held his annual Road Show event in Rockville last Thursday. Its purpose is to brief Montgomery lawmakers and constituents on what the state is building in the county. But of course, lots of attention is also directed at what the state is not building. And that means – surprise, surprise – it all comes down to money.
From left to right: SHA's Darryl Mobley and Neil Pedersen, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18), Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15) and MDOT Secretary John Porcari.
John Porcari is a considerably more skilled man than his predecessor, Ehrlich Transportation Secretary Bob Flanagan. Flanagan was notorious for saying in barely veiled terms, “You guys are getting the ICC. Isn’t that enough?” Porcari is facing a far more constrained budget situation than Flanagan ever did. Yet, his style is to lay out the budget realities in plain terms, have his aides drone on for very long periods about every state project line by line and artfully deflect the darts thrown by unhappy politicians.
And there were a lot of politicians present. We saw County Council Members Nancy Floreen, Mike Knapp, Don Praisner and Phil Andrews; Delegates Sheila Hixson, Susan Lee, Jim Gilchrist, Charles Barkley, Brian Feldman, Kumar Barve, Kirill Reznik, Karen Montgomery, Al Carr, Kathleen Dumais, Bill Bronrott, Jeff Waldstreicher, Bill Frick and Roger Manno; and Senators Jennie Forehand, Brian Frosh, Jamie Raskin, and new Senate Delegation Chair Rich Madaleno. All were on hand to hear the following:
1. There Are Only THREE Road Projects Under Construction by the State in MoCo.
You read that correctly: THREE road projects under construction. They are the ever-popular ICC, a 1.1 mile 6-lane highway along MD 124 (Woodfield Road) near Montgomery Village, and the Randolph Road/Montrose Parkway interchange in Rockville. A dozen more projects are in various stages of planning with no construction money scheduled.
John Porcari (center) has better political skills than most politicians.
2. The ICC is a Done Deal
The ICC consists of five contracts. Contract A, linking I-370 to Georgia Avenue, is now under construction. Contract C, linking US-29 to I-95, is also under construction. Contract B, linking Georgia Avenue to US-29, has just had a notice to proceed issued. Construction will start in early 2009. Contract E, linking I-95 to US-1 in Prince George’s County, is scheduled to have a notice to proceed issued by the summer of 2009. Contract D, which would build a network of feeder roads around I-95, has been “indefinitely deferred” due to cost overruns on other phases of the project. Just to hammer the point home, State Highway Administrator Neil Pedersen stated “it is not our intention” to replace Contract B with local road work. At this point, 92% of the construction funding has already been awarded.
3. No Worries About the Purple Line or the CCT – Right?
Porcari and his staff were adamant that Baltimore’s Red Line, the Purple Line and the Corridor Cities Transitway (CCT) are on parallel tracks for the federal approval process. When challenged by Delegate Charles Barkley (D-39), Porcari said that the recent planning cuts ($25 million for the Purple Line and $43 million for the CCT) would not affect the readiness of those projects for federal review. No one asked the obvious question: if those amounts were unnecessary, what were they doing in the budget in the first place?
Nancy Floreen calls the question - again.
But County Council Member Nancy Floreen asked the question of the night. When would Montgomery County be told of its expected “local contribution” for either of the two transit projects? This pulls the pants down on a dirty secret not commonly reported in the press. When the federal government and the state decide how much funding they will channel to any of the state’s three competing transit projects (assuming that any are federally approved), the local jurisdiction will be expected to make up any difference with project cost. Porcari’s staff could not provide an answer on when those costs would be known, but estimated they might be available in two years.
The discussion of the two major transit projects has always assumed they would be mostly paid by the federal government and the state. But what if a large bill is headed to the county? How much will county taxpayers be willing to pay for the Purple Line or the CCT? What if the property tax limit has to be broken, thus triggering the anti-tax Ficker Amendment? There are many issues awaiting the County Council and the voters in years to come.
Senator Brian Frosh (D-16) asks about BRAC.
4. Not Enough Money is Available to Complete BRAC Work
The Medical Center north of Bethesda is scheduled to add 2,500 new jobs and more than double its outpatient visits to nearly 1 million annually by September 2011. That necessitates reconstructing at least four major intersections near the facility as well as perhaps a larger corridor study between Bethesda and Randolph Road. That work could easily add up to more than a hundred million dollars. Yet, after cutting $16 million, the state has now scheduled just $31 million for the project, of which only $8 million is for construction. Senator Frosh and Delegates Bronrott, Lee and Carr all asked Porcari about this. Porcari answered, “We know we will need additional construction funding” but he also cautioned, “We know we have to live within our means.”
The Road Show was well attended by the Montgomery Delegation and many of them questioned Porcari and his staff. But the bottom line still comes down to money. During the special session, the General Assembly raised enough transportation funding to pay for $150 million in new projects and $250 million in additional system preservation. But the economic collapse and the diversion of $50 million to pay for repealing the computer tax have depressed revenues to the point that the state is only receiving $265 million in new money – almost all of which is scheduled for maintenance. Had the legislature listened to the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce and raised $600 million for transportation, projects such as BRAC might be better funded.
If the county’s state legislators are truly interested in moving these projects along, complaints to Secretary Porcari will not suffice. The only way to make progress is to raise more transportation funding. Show us the money!
Sunday, November 16, 2008
RNC: Building Our Future
Can anyone explain to me why a Republican National Committee video called "Building Our Future" could be composed entirely of retrospectives of Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush? Why not talk about future leaders like Sarah Palin?
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Progressive Summit
Progressive Maryland is convening an activist summit on 11/22/08 in Annapolis. Following is their press release.
Media Advisory for Saturday, November 22, 2008
From 9:00AM – 4:00PM
NEW DATE: The Progressive Maryland Education Fund Convenes Summit For Progressive Activists from All Across Maryland
With the Presidential Election Over, Hundreds of Progressive Activists Come Together To Focus On a Statewide Agenda For 2009
The Progressive Summit has been rescheduled for Saturday, Nov. 22, 9 a.m. to 4 pm. at the Annapolis Senior High School, 2700 Riva Road, Annapolis, MD 21401. Hundreds if not thousands of Maryland progressive activists are volunteering every weekend to work on this historic presidential election in neighboring states Virginia and Pennsylvania (and some full-time in Ohio and elsewhere). Understandably, the activists want to finally take a weekend off after the Nov. 4th election. As a result, our Steering Committee partners have asked the Progressive Md. Educ. Fund to postpone the Progressive Summit from Saturday Nov. 8th to Saturday Nov. 22. We agree that postponement is a great idea.
The Progressive Summit will feature leaders from the major progressive organizations in the labor, education, environmental, civil rights, health care, and criminal justice reform communities as they discuss the budget deficit, their respective 2009 agendas, and where common ground exists uniting us all.
The Progressive Summit Steering Committee Partners include the ACLU of Maryland, Advocates for Children & Youth, Center for American Progress, CASA of Maryland, Drug Policy Alliance, Environment Maryland, Equality Maryland, League of Conservation Voters of Maryland, Maryland Association of Non-Profit Organizations, Maryland Budget & Tax Institute, Maryland Citizens' Health Initiative, Maryland CASE, Maryland State Teachers Association, Mid-Atlantic Laborers' Employers Cooperative & Education Trust, SEIU DC/MD State Council, UFCW Local 400 and more. To RSVP & more information: www.progressivemaryland.org.
Who: The Progressive Maryland Education Fund
What: The Progressive Summit
When: Saturday, November 22, 2008, 9:00 AM - 4:00PM
Where: Annapolis Senior High School, 2700 Riva Road, Annapolis
Contact: Rion Dennis, 301-437-9006
Friday, November 14, 2008
Rich Madaleno Becomes Chairman of the MoCo Senate Delegation
Senator Rich Madaleno sent out this notice minutes ago. Note his comments on teacher pensions and transportation funding.
*****
I am pleased to report that I was elected chair of the Montgomery County Senate Delegation last night. Sen. Jamie Raskin of District 20 was elected Vice Chair. The chair runs the delegation’s weekly meetings and serves as a conduit for information concerning issues impacting the county in the State Senate.
We both received the unanimous support of our colleagues. We look forward to working with the leadership of our House delegation, Del. Brian Feldman and Del. Susan Lee.
As a result of the global economic downturn, this will be a challenging year for the General Assembly. I pledge to work diligently to protect the county’s interests during these tough financial times. I also hope to build consensus with our colleagues from across the state on solutions to our current problems.
Topping the list of priorities this year will be opposing any permanent structural changes to state aid formulas. Montgomery County’s Delegation is united in working to stop any effort to shift retirement costs for our teachers and librarians back to the county. For more than 80 years, the state has managed and funded the trust fund which pays for the pension benefits of teachers and librarians. We cannot let our short term financial needs jeopardize a system that has served the taxpayers and teachers of our state so well for so long.
We will also work to ensure that the county’s school construction allocation is not less than the $46 million we received in the current fiscal year. Our school system has an aggressive plan to build and modernize our school buildings. This level of state funding helps support good construction jobs in our struggling economy and ensures our students have the environment they need to succeed.
Working with our Prince George’s County colleagues, we plan to implement all of the statutory changes needed to secure the federal government’s pledge of $1.5 billion in improvements to the Metro system. Our congressional delegation succeeded in obtaining federal funds to renovate and repair the Metro system. Now, Maryland, Virginia, and DC must amend our regional compact to meet our new obligation. The laws of all three jurisdictions must be amended exactly the same, down to each comma, to satisfy new federal requirements. We will work to see that these changes are made and that the state meets its funding goals.
Finally, I plan to lead the delegation in a discussion concerning the future of transportation funding in our state and region. The last year has highlighted the growing volatility in the revenue sources that support the transportation trust fund. While we may not agree on every project, we need to explore new ways to provide financial stability to the trust fund and to ensure that we have the resources to meet our significant transportation infrastructure needs.
Sen. Raskin and I look forward to working with our talented colleagues in the Maryland State Senate to make 2009 a year of progressive change for our county and state.
Thank you,
Rich Madaleno
MPW on the Radio
I was on Rockville Central Radio today talking about slots, the Ficker referendum, the state budget and Tom Perez's work for the Obama campaign. Come on, I know you are bored at work! You will have more fun listening in here at the 15:30 mark.
Gimme Some of That Gold-Dust!
It seems that some of our local politicians are rolling around in the gold-dust from our President-Elect. Who's rolling around the most? For our answer, we return to Facebook! Check out the profile pictures currently used by the individuals below. On Facebook, a profile picture appears prominently on each participant's home page and accompanies their name on all status reports and comments.
Delegate Kirill Reznik (D-39)
Isn’t it nice that Delegate Reznik watches TV like the rest of us? Who knew?
Delegate Tom Hucker (D-20)
This picture was taken after Delegate Hucker campaigned in Pennsylvania for the Senator. I sure see the family resemblance here! Thanks for pointing this out, Tom!
Former County Council Candidate Hans Riemer
Hans has actually used TWO profile pictures featuring his former boss. Hans worked for the Senator for nearly a year.
"Excuse me, Senator, may I have a word with you?"
"Don't worry, Hans. I'll get Valerie to run at-large so you can have that District 5 seat!"
Delegate Ali, as the reigning Master of Facebook, do you have any comment?
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Strange Conclusions From The Election
By Marc Korman.
Since Tuesday’s election, pundits and politicians have drawn some strange conclusions from the results.
1. Franchot Lost, O’Malley Won
A front page article in the Gazette of Business and Politics says that the anti-slots Comptroller “might have to reconsider” any plans he had to challenge O’Malley in the Gubernatorial primary in two years because slots passed successfully. Like the rest of us, Franchot has probably known for months that slots was going to pass based on public polling. So I doubt the election results did much to change his current thinking on running for Governor.
If Franchot is seriously considering a primary challenge, how the ballot question did statewide, in Montgomery County, or even among Democrats is irrelevant. What matters is how the ballot question did among Democrats who vote in the gubernatorial primary. In 2006, 524,671 Democrats voted in the Gubernatorial primary. O’Malley ran unopposed, so a competitive primary could have a higher turnout. But it is those voters that matter, not the millions who showed up last Tuesday. Thanks to his slots opposition, Franchot has gotten a lot of attention from these base Democratic voters that could serve him well if he is serious about challenging O’Malley.
2. This is a Center Right Nation
Newsweek was actually making this argument even before the election. The thought was echoed by House Minority Leader John Boehner in a letter to his colleagues begging to keep his leadership post. In the case of Boehner and other Republicans, I imagine they are just trying to comfort themselves with this thought.
If I had to try and characterize the country, I would characterize it as center with left and right leanings depending on the time and the issue. Polling has generally shown a majority favors abortion (left), a majority favors prayer in public schools (right), a majority opposes the war in Iraq (left), and a majority favored going to war with Iraq four years ago (right). A better characterization might be that we are a schizophrenic nation, but I will stick with the characterization that we are a center nation with leanings one way or the other depending on the issue.
3. Montgomery County Has Experienced A Tax Revolt
Adam Pagnucco made this argument right here at MPW. He has good company at the Washington Post editorial board. I am confident that Montgomery County residents, like just about everyone, do not enjoy taxes. But we did not have a tax revolt, we had a political failure. Opposition to the Ficker Amendment was late in forming and few people, even opponents, understood the amendment. There was almost no effort to communicate with and educate the public on the issue. Had there been even a modest effort against the amendment, Ficker would have failed as in previous years.
That does not mean legislators should feel free to act irresponsibly with our tax dollars. But it does mean that in two years I predict the charter will be amended again to undue the Ficker law. Placing the first bet on the 2010 election, I say the “Repeal Ficker Act” will pass 55% to 45%. It will not be easy, but the unions, the politicians, and the activists will all work together to make it happen.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
On Political Pulse
Adam Pagnucco, a blogger for Maryland Politics Watch Blog, will be on the "Political Pulse" TV Show on Thursday, November 13th, at 9 p.m. and Tuesday, November 18th at 9:30 p.m. to discuss the Blog and also issues arising from the November 4th Election, such as those relating to the slots vote, the vote on "Ficker Amendment," and whether Comptroller Peter Franchot might be challenged in the 2010 Democratic Primary.
Political Pulse is on Channel 16 TV in Montgomery County, Maryland.
Obama’s 78%
By Marc Korman.
Before the election, I wrote a post on Barack Obama and the Jewish vote. Happily, the polling understated his support in the Jewish community. President-elect Obama drew 78% of the Jewish vote. That is an increase over John Kerry’s share in 2004 and just 1% less than Al Gore in 2000, who had a Jewish running mate. I suppose we have Sarah Silverman to thank.
Here is a list of the Democratic ticket’s percentage of the Jewish vote going all the way back to 1916:
Jewish Vote By Year:
Wilson-55%
Cox-19% (The Republican candidate received 43%, the Socialist candidate received 38%)
Davis-51%
Smith-72%
Roosevelt-82%
Roosevelt-85%
Roosevelt-90%
Roosevelt-90%
Truman-75%
Stevenson-64%
Stevenson-60%
Kennedy-82%
Johnson-90%
Humphrey-81%
McGovern-65%
Carter-71%
Carter-45% (The Republican received 39%, an Independent candidate received 14%)
Mondale-67%
Dukakis-64%
Clinton-80%
Clinton-78%
Gore-79%
Kerry-76%
Obama-78%
Election 2008 by Legislative District
Straight from the Board of Elections, here are the votes for President, the slots referendum and the Ficker Amendment by legislative district. We also report how each state legislator voted on the slots referendum during the 2007 special session.
District 14
President
Obama 35,107 (64.7%)
McCain 18,531 (34.1%)
Slots
For 29,199 (56.2%)
Against 22,754 (43.8%)
Ficker
For 25,812 (53.3%)
Against 22,591 (46.7%)
Senator Rona Kramer and Delegate Anne Kaiser voted for the slots referendum. Delegate Herman Taylor voted against. Delegate Karen Montgomery was excused from the vote.
District 15
President
Obama 36,829 (64.5%)
McCain 19,486 (34.1%)
Slots
For 30,534 (55.8%)
Against 24,153 (44.2%)
Ficker
For 28,587 (55.9%)
Against 22,545 (44.1%)
The entire District 15 Delegation voted for the slots referendum. This district had the lowest vote for Obama and the highest vote for Ficker.
District 16
President
Obama 38,106 (73.7%)
McCain 12,893 (24.9%)
Slots
For 22,393 (44.8%)
Against 27,586 (55.2%)
Ficker
For 20,697 (45.2%)
Against 25,083 (54.8%)
Senator Brian Frosh voted against the referendum. Delegates Bill Bronrott, Susan Lee and Bill Frick voted for it. This district had the lowest vote for slots.
District 17
President
Obama 32,252 (70.9%)
McCain 12,552 (27.8%)
Slots
For 23,397 (53.7%)
Against 20,190 (46.3%)
Ficker
For 20,221 (50.1%)
Against 20,126 (49.9%)
Senator Jennie Forehand and Delegates Kumar Barve and Jim Gilchrist voted for the referendum. Delegate Luiz Simmons voted against.
District 18
President
Obama 34,380 (76.0%)
McCain 10,187 (22.5%)
Slots
For 21,049 (48.5%)
Against 22,318 (51.5%)
Ficker
For 18,442 (45.8%)
Against 21,785 (54.2%)
Senator Rich Madaleno and Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez voted for the referendum. Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher voted against. Delegate Al Carr was not in office during the special session.
District 19
President
Obama 32,409 (68.1%)
McCain 14,472 (30.4%)
Slots
For 24,888 (55.1%)
Against 20,320 (45.0%)
Ficker
For 21,742 (51.9%)
Against 20,147 (48.1%)
Senator Mike Lenett and Delegates Henry Heller and Roger Manno voted for the referendum. Delegate Ben Kramer voted against.
District 20
President
Obama 32,888 (84.6%)
McCain 5,460 (14.0%)
Slots
For 16,727 (45.8%)
Against 19,813 (54.2%)
Ficker
For 14,389 (42.1%)
Against 19,782 (57.9%)
Senator Jamie Raskin and Delegate Heather Mizeur voted against the slots referendum. Delegates Sheila Hixson and Tom Hucker voted for it. This district had the highest vote for Obama and the lowest vote for Ficker.
District 39
President
Obama 29,872 (70.5%)
McCain 11,799 (27.9%)
Slots
For 23,203 (57.4%)
Against 17,213 (42.6%)
Ficker
For 20,326 (53.7%)
Against 17,544 (46.3%)
Senator Nancy King and Delegate Kirill Reznik voted for the slots referendum. Delegates Charles Barkely and Saqib Ali voted against. This district had the highest vote for slots.
Generally speaking, districts in the inner suburbs voted more liberally than those far from the Beltway.
Which politicians were most out of step with their districts? In District 39, slots passed by 14.8% but Delegates Barkley and Ali voted against the referendum. In District 14, slots passed by 12.4% but Delegate Taylor voted against the referendum. In District 16, slots failed by 10.4% but Delegates Bronrott, Lee and Frick voted for the referendum. And in District 19, slots passed by 10.1% but Delegate Kramer voted against the referendum.
In the future, we will calculate votes by County Council district and locality for the SERIOUS junkies out there!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Who is MoCo's Smartest Pundit?
Last week, MPW held a contest between some of MoCo's most-addicted political junkies to pick Presidential, Senate and Maryland races. So who won?
The answer: we are not yet declaring a winner. While all of the Presidential states are in and the Maryland races are decided (with Ficker almost certainly winning), three Senate races are still outstanding. The Minnesota contest is headed to a full recount. Absentee and early ballots are still being counted in Alaska, though Fivethirtyeight.com believes Begich will probably defeat Stevens. And the Georgia race is headed for a run-off on December 2. So it's just too early to pick a winner.
That is not stopping some of our participants from pressuring me to label them "The Smartest Pundit in MoCo." One of them emailed me, "Are we going to recognize how awesome my picks were?" When I told this person that I had not yet decided who won, the individual wrote back, "It's totally me!" Another person wanted to know whether I would be posting an interim scorecard. When I said I would do only one post declaring a winner, this individual replied, "I’ll be on pins and needles until then!" Who knew that these gibbering addicts were so competitive?
So here is what will happen. After the Alaska and Minnesota races are decided, I will post one tally of the results by participant. If the Georgia run-off changes the outcome, I will do another post after it concludes. (David Lublin and Jamie Raskin were the only two prognosticators who picked Martin to beat Chambliss.) We are just going to have to wait a bit.
So if you are one of those contestants, don't be stupid enough to email me asking, "When are you declaring me the Smartest Pundit in MoCo?" If you do that, I will instead write a post declaring you "The Biggest Narcissist in MoCo!"
MoCo School Unions Agree to Reopen Contracts
Below is the text of a press release from MCEA, SEIU Local 500 and the Montgomery County Association of Administrative and Supervisory Personnel (MCAASP), the three unions that represent employees in the public schools.
JOINT UNION BULLETIN #5
Unions Agree to Renegotiations
November 10, 2008
The leadership of the three school employee unions today announced that their executive boards have agreed to re-open negotiations over their collective bargaining agreements for the 2009-2010 fiscal year.
Earlier today, representatives of MCEA, SEIU Local 500 and MCAASP met again with the County Executive's staff to review the state of the county's economy. The most recent data affirms what earlier numbers suggested: that there is a serious slowdown underway in the economy that is going to significantly impact county revenues in next year's budget.
Contract talks are expected to begin soon. All three organizations have expressed a desire to reach agreement on new terms as quickly as possible. The three unions will be negotiating as a joint team.
Without mutual agreement on new terms, the Board of Education is legally obligated to include the previously negotiated contracts in their budget proposal to the county government.
The unions are also working with the administration on the overall MCPS budget plan for next year. We believe that meaningful additional savings can be found through streamlining operations in the central office and reductions in non-school based expenditures.
We will continue to keep our members informed as the process moves forward.
Maryland Foreclosures in Perspective
Realtytrac has perhaps the best foreclosure information in the U.S. Today, we tap into its hulking database to put Maryland’s foreclosure crisis in perspective.
One of Realtytrac’s many functions is its ability to track foreclosures by county. The map above shows foreclosure rates by Maryland county (measured by total housing units per foreclosure) in September 2008. Here’s how Maryland’s counties stack up:
Prince George’s: 1 in 338
Frederick: 1 in 696
Charles: 1 in 704
Washington: 1 in 1,106
Baltimore City: 1 in 1,179
Calvert: 1 in 1,234
Anne Arundel: 1 in 1,267
Howard: 1 in 1,447
Montgomery: 1 in 1,467
Carroll: 1 in 1,526
Kent: 1 in 1,737
Queen Anne’s: 1 in 1,916
Baltimore County: 1 in 2,037
Harford: 1 in 2,150
Caroline: 1 in 2,229
Allegany: 1 in 3,312
Dorchester: 1 in 4,033
Wicomico: 1 in 4,377
Cecil: 1 in 4,967
Somerset: 1 in 5,396
Garrett: 1 in 6,190
St. Mary’s: 1 in 10,035
Talbot: 1 in 19,247
Worcester: 1 in 53,372
Above is a close-up view of one of the most intense foreclosure spots in the state: Montgomery Village. This map shows 206 foreclosed properties in about nine square miles.
Northern Virginia has been hit much harder than Maryland. Here are foreclosure rates for those jurisdictions:
Manassas City: 1 in 68
Prince William County: 1 in 87
Fairfax City: 1 in 111
Culpeper County: 1 in 189
Stafford County: 1 in 195
Loudoun County: 1 in 200
Warren County: 1 in 265
Fairfax County: 1 in 271
Orange County: 1 in 272
Spotsylvania County: 1 in 277
Frederick County: 1 in 292
Winchester City: 1 in 348
Fauquier County: 1 in 370
Alexandria City: 1 in 944
Arlington County: 1 in 1,142
Clarke County: 1 in 1,237
Nationwide, the worst foreclosure rates are in Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and Colorado, in that order. Here are the hardest-hit counties (or independent cities) in the U.S.
Merced County, CA: 1 in 60
Clark County, NV: 1 in 65
Manassas City, VA: 1 in 68
Osceola County, FL: 1 in 68
San Benito County, CA: 1 in 69
Lee County, FL: 1 in 71
Madera County, CA: 1 in 76
Prince William County, VA: 1 in 87
San Joaquin County, CA: 1 in 88
Riverside County, CA: 1 in 90
Stanislaus County, CA: 1 in 92
I guess you can see this in one of two ways. An optimist would say that our problems are not as bad as some other places around the country. A pessimist would say that our problems could get a lot worse!
Monday, November 10, 2008
No Matter How Paranoid You Are, You Can Never be Paranoid Enough
A couple weeks ago, a local politician called me about ten minutes after I mentioned the person’s name in a blog post. The conversation went something like this.Politician X: Hello Adam, this is Politician X.
Readers, Google Alert is a politician’s best friend. It is a service that emails you whenever a search term you choose is mentioned on a media site or blog. Growing numbers of politicians are entering their own names and getting alerts whenever they are mentioned on these sites. The emails can come pretty quickly, sometimes in ten minutes or less.
Adam: What can I do for you, Politician X?
Politician X: I think you misinterpreted one of my positions in your blog post.
[Discussion about blog post ensues.]
Adam: Look, I don’t want you to get the impression that I am always bashing you on this blog. I actually agree with you on a lot of things.
Politician X: Like what?
Adam: Well, last winter, I argued on behalf of your position on Issue Y.
Politician X: Really?
Adam: And a few months ago, I agreed with you on Issue Z. Didn’t you read that?
Politician X: No, I’m not a regular reader of the blog.
Adam: Then how did you know I wrote about you ten minutes ago?
Politician X: Errr… um…
Adam: You have Google Alert, don’t you?
So imagine being tethered to your Crackberry and having it go off any time some rogue blogger mentions your name. That is the lifestyle some of our politicians are now choosing to lead. Is it narcissism? Is it paranoia? Is it healthy for family life or mental stability? Why aren’t their significant others putting a stop to this?
This is yet another reason not to run for office.
Update: As usual, Delegate Saqib Ali is ahead of the curve. Delegate Ali actually encourages his supporters to sign up for Google Alert and enter his name so that they can stay abreast of the latest news reports on him. Perhaps this is one reason why we always get big traffic boosts whenever we mention his Facebook page.
Frosh Raising Money for Muse
We don’t normally quote fundraiser announcements here, but this one is bound to raise some eyebrows in the GLBT community.Governor Martin O’Malley
So what’s the big deal? Political muckety-mucks always raise money for other muck-mucks. But in the eyes of the GLBT community, Senator Muse (D-26) is no ordinary muck.
Lt. Governor Anthony Brown
Senate President Thomas. V. “Mike” Miller, Jr.
House Speaker Michael E. Busch
Senator Brian Frosh, Judicial Proceedings Committee Chair
Prince George’s County Executive Jack B. Johnson
Prince George’s County Council Chair Samuel H. Dean
Invite you to a breakfast honoring
Senator C. Anthony Muse
Wednesday, November 19th
7:30am-9:00am at
The Country Club at Woodmore
12320 Pleasant Prospect Road
Mitchellville, MD 20721
Sponsors: $1,000, Hosts: $500, Guests: $250
Checks should be made payable to:
Friends of C. Anthony Muse
1509 Light Street
Baltimore, MD 21230
For more information or to RSVP please contact
410-727-0501 or stephaniemellinger@rcn.com
By authority of Friends of C. Anthony Muse
Sharon Brandon, Treasurer
Senator Muse is a swing vote on GLBT issues in the Senate’s Judiciary Proceedings Committee. But he mostly swings against them. In the 2007 session, Senator Muse helped kill a bill banning discrimination against transgendered people in committee despite promising to support it. Equality Maryland Executive Director Dan Furmansky told the Blade, “We had the vote count on the floor of the House and the floor of the Senate... We had the votes.” In 2008, Senator Muse refused to support marriage equality in committee, causing it to die without a floor vote. At the time, he told a Baltimore radio station, “Unequivocally, I stand for Christian marriage and have no intentions of tampering with that at all.”
Senator Muse is not the only Democrat who is uncomfortable with the notion of granting full civil rights to gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered people, but his committee position gives him a unique opportunity to block these initiatives. And who is the Chairman of the Judicial Proceedings Committee? None other than Senator Brian Frosh (D-16), who is listed prominently as a co-sponsor of Senator Muse’s fundraiser.
Senator Frosh is considered one of the legislature’s most prominent progressives, especially on environmental and civil rights issues. But he is also interested in succeeding Big Daddy as the next Senate President. To do that, he needs support from Prince George’s County Senators like C. Anthony Muse.
One old Annapolis hand virtually yawned when I pointed this out. This individual told me, “It is common practice for committee chairs to attend and support the fundraisers of their committee members. I have even seen the Republicans publicize their Democratic chairs for fundraisers. There is nothing out of the ordinary for Annapolis. Maybe it should be but it is common in our culture.”
And so this is business as usual. That’s fine for the Lords of Annapolis. But how does any of this help gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered people who are seeking their civil rights?
Update: Three different politicians have weighed in on this off-blog. None of them see a problem here. All say it would be very unusual for Senator Frosh, as Senator Muse's committee chair, to not co-sponsor the fundraiser. That shows how important protocol is in Annapolis.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Van Hollen Continuing as DCCC Chair
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, a.k.a. "The Fix" reports:After bringing at least two dozen new Democrats to the House in Tuesday's elections, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) has agreed to try to duplicate that achievement in 2010 as chair of the caucus's campaign arm. He also will take on an added role, coordinating policy decisions between the House and President-elect Barack Obama's administration.
Ficker's Lead Grows
Just as we predicted, Robin Ficker's anti-tax charter amendment is picking up votes as the absentee ballots are counted.
When the precinct count was finished, 170,216 votes supported the Ficker Amendment and 169,603 opposed it - a margin of 613. Domestic absentees supported Ficker by 18,214 to 14,673 - adding 3,541 votes to what is now a total margin of 4,154. While precinct voters supported the amendment by a 50.1-49.9% percentage, domestic absentees supported it by 55.4-44.6%.
Ficker is now certain to win.
Update from David: Adam's right but for the wrong reason. In his original post, he cited stats from past elections which showed that absentee voters trended more Republican than people who voted at the polls. That wasn't the case this year. Absentee voters cast 76% of their votes for Obama, compared to just 72% of Election Day voters. Van Hollen won 78% of the votes of absentees while he won 74% of the votes of Election Day voters. Interestingly, absentee voters were also more likely to vote yes on Question A related to early voting, though not very different from other voters on slots. In other words, absentee voters appear as or more liberal than voters at the polls on all issues except taxes.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Advantage: Kratovil
In a sharp break with past experience, the Democrats have equaled Republican performance in turning out absentee voters in Congress District 1. Frank Kratovil now has a lead that will be very difficult for Andy Harris to overcome.
Yesterday, we discussed how Republicans dominated absentee ballots in District 1 back in 2006. In the nine Eastern Shore counties, Republicans cast 51.1% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 40.2%, a 10.9 point lead for the GOP. In the twelve counties that have at least part of their territory in District 1, Republicans cast 50.4% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 41.4%, a 9 point GOP lead.
But that is not the case in 2008. Throughout District 1, Democrats applied for 43.5% of absentee ballots against 42.8% for Republicans – a 0.7 point advantage for the Democrats. In terms of absentee ballots actually received by this morning, 43.8% came from Democrats and 43.0% came from Republicans – a 0.8 point advantage for the Democrats.
The Baltimore Sun reports that absentee counts have begun in all but four counties – Harford, Cecil, Talbot and Worcester. So far, Kratovil’s 915-vote lead on election day has grown to 1,871 – a pickup of 956. In the eight counties in which counting has begun, Kratovil outpolled Harris by 96,227-90,222 – a 6,005 vote or 3.2 point margin. This makes Kratovil’s additional pickup among absentee ballots a little less surprising.
So what of the four counties that have yet to be counted? On election day, they voted for Harris by a 69,778-64,688 vote or 3.8 point margin. In terms of absentee applications, 6,213 came from Republicans, 5,998 came from Democrats and 1,966 came from others. In terms of absentee ballots already returned, 5,559 came from Republicans, 5,335 came from Democrats and 1,729 came from others. That means in these four counties, 44% of the total 12,623 returned absentee ballots came from Republicans. And in order to overcome Kratovil’s lead, Harris would need to win over 57% of these ballots or benefit from an unprecedented surge of late military ballots. Both of these events are extremely unlikely. Kratovil looks like a winner.
If Kratovil holds on, it will be by far the most humiliating defeat for the Maryland GOP in the 2008 General Election. Consider the fact that District 1 was explicitly designed by Annapolis Democrats to be a Republican district. It contains the right-leaning Eastern Shore plus many of the most conservative precincts in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Also, consider the fact that the GOP historically outperforms the Democrats on absentee ballots and has a history of doing so in this Congressional District.
If Free State Republicans are defeated in their district with their tactic of choice – the absentee ballot – they are truly facing their Waterloo.
Update: The Associated Press has called the race for Kratovil.
Sarah Palin Does Not Know Africa is a Continent
She also cannot name the countries that participate in NAFTA!
In the Shadow of Sugar Loaf
By Sharon Dooley.
The fiddlers were a-fiddlin’, the banjos were a-playin’ and the grapes were being stomped on a beautiful country day. The crowds were sippin’ and clappin’ and enjoying the fresh country air. Where in the world were these events happening: California wine country? Nope, it was right here at the upcounty Sugarloaf Mountain Vineyard along Comus Road in Montgomery County, which stands literally, in the shadow of our own Sugarloaf Mountain.
On this recent weekend, the vineyard held its annual grape stomp, wine tasting event and vintage wine sales. At the same event, in a special ceremony, Montgomery County’s Countryside Alliance awarded its’ annual Royce Hanson Award to Peg Coleman. Peg is a well-known author and educator, a preservationist and keeper of the countryside integrity, and a guardian of the special natural resources that are the mainstay of the upcounty agricultural reserve. She is a quiet farm oriented person who effectively spreads her messages about this special portion of Montgomery County. Her award was well deserved and cheerfully applauded by the hundreds of attendees, which also included some elected officials.
Royce Hanson, Planning Board Chair, presented the award – for which he had been the first recipient. He was noted to have been the “Father of the Agricultural Reserve” more than 25 years ago, when this area was first set aside, then marking about 93,000 acres of parkland and farmlands and several towns and villages. The original protected area encompassed about one-third of the entire land in Montgomery County. In his remarks he described how this section sets the county apart, even from aloft, as a spot where the prominence of lights in a continuous march down the East Coast is dimmed. He mentioned the importance of ensuring protections for this fragile area, still being threatened with development. He noted how the trees clean the air for all in the county. Sand Mounds and their misuse were also mentioned as a tool that could be used to further fracture the separate peace of this upcounty area of refuge. This topic is yet to be clearly defined by the County Council and this lack of resolution hangs like a sword over the Reserve. There are many who fear that the Ag Reserve will die the death of a thousand cuts as the acreage around the periphery is continually challenged with special requests to add another building or two or more. Limiting the numbers of housing roofs in the Reserve as well as discouraging fragmentation of agricultural lands are both vital concerns in the area. Other discussions have focused on equity for farmer property owners in the form of selling rights for development instead elsewhere in the county in exchange for not developing lands in the Reserve. In an era of fewer county and developer funds, will these options be still in play?
This is a special set-aside where the air is clear and the clamor of the crowded highways is missing. When one looks to the sky one sees the hawk and eagle in flight, not the shadow of high rises. These are the lonely roads where you may end up behind a thresher as you drive along, amid the fields of corn, hay, or soybeans and pass by painted fences corralling grazing horses and nearby stables. On this early autumn day, in the nearby forests, the leaves were starting to change; their colorful array twinkled in the sunshine. One must wonder if this area will still remain a treasured place where we might be able to celebrate the 100th or even the 50th anniversary of its’ special protections.
Sharon Dooley hopes that those of you in the down county who have never explored the beauty of these upcounty areas - will take that country drive –someday soon – while we are still protecting the land here.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Record Turnout?
Prof. Michael McDonald over at GMU has done a great job of tracking turnout in this and past elections. He has posted preliminary rough turnout estimates on his blog. So was turnout up or down?
According to Mike, national turnout was 62.6% among the voting eligible population. Unlike the voting-age population, the voting-eligible population excludes people over age 18 who aren't eligible like noncitizens, people imprisoned and disfranchised felons. At an estimate of 62.6%, turnout is up 1.9% from 2004 and is the highest turnout rate among the voting eligible population since 1964.
Turnout was up in Maryland too--67.0% of the voting eligible population of our state cast a ballot this year compared to just 63.1% in 2004.
The Great Maryland Tax Revolt
Free State conservatives may have experienced a miserable election night with the victory of Barack Obama and Democratic pickups in the House and Senate. But they should take comfort from one development in Maryland: voters have made clear their intolerance for new taxes.
The most obvious sign is the wild success of the slots referendum. The pundits predicted a close contest. So of course, preliminary totals show the referendum passing by 58.6-41.4%, a margin of 17.3 points. But that number conceals the staggering totality of the sweep. Fourteen of Maryland’s twenty-four jurisdictions recorded 20-point-plus pro-slots margins. And what of the five jurisdictions (Baltimore City, Allegany, Anne Arundel, Cecil and Worcester) that will actually receive a casino? They recorded a combined 59.2-40.8% vote for slots, a margin of 18.4 points.
The most overused line by politicians during this campaign has been, “I’m not a fan of slots.” Of course not. Few people are. But few voters are fans of taxes either. And slots proponents won because voters believed their core argument: slots are preferable to taxes. The regressive nature of the 2007 special session tax package undoubtedly brought that point home to a very large number of Marylanders.
Anti-tax sentiment extended even into the state’s bluest Democratic strongholds. Prince George’s County is infamous for its underachieving schools. Yet, voters rejected a mere $17 million tax hike targeted for the schools by a 71-29% margin. And Montgomery County, perhaps the most liberal place in the state, is on the verge of approving Robin Ficker’s anti-tax charter amendment.
All of this leads me to recall the considerable number of liberal politicians who have suggested an alcohol tax increase. Their argument begins with the fact that liquor taxes in Maryland are relatively low. And since everyone knows that low taxes are bad, basic common sense dictates that this tax be raised. Forget about the fact that few Bud-drinking people I know would agree with this philosophy. The truth is that we are entering a recession. Bad times warrant a comforting nip (or two) from the bottle. I would ask these politicians if they really want to tax my unemployed union members into involuntary sobriety. If they try, they may find how creative a construction worker with a two-by-four can really be.
Given the above developments, there is no safe place for a tax-hiking politician to hide in the Free State right about now. Not in Kingsville, Kettering, Kensington or the Kentlands. My advice to our political friends is to tolerate the spending cuts, keep your heads down and check back in with us after the next election.
Advantage: Harris
Absentee voter data from the 2006 race in Congress District 1 suggests that Andy Harris may very well overtake Frank Kratovil.
With 100% of the precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 160,915-160,000, or 915 votes. In the Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Harford precincts, Harris leads by 81,991 to 63,477. In the Eastern Shore precincts, Kratovil leads by 97,438-78,009. Kratovil won every Eastern Shore county and Harris won every county west of the Bay.
The election will now come down to absentee and provisional ballots. The state’s data for past Congressional elections lacks the details I used to analyze past Montgomery County data for the purpose of assessing the prospects of the Ficker amendment. But there is enough data from the 2006 election to suggest that absentee voting in District 1 trends Republican.
The state does not report 2006 polling place, absentee and provisional voting data for District 1 as a whole. But it does report those totals by county and by party. Two cuts on that data draw similar conclusions.
Cut 1: The Eastern Shore
Nine counties on the Eastern Shore (Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and Worcester) lie entirely within District 1. In 2006, they accounted for 53% of all votes cast in the District 1 general election. So far in 2008, they account for 55% of the vote. In 2006, Democrats accounted for 46% of the 130,090 votes cast at the polls while Republicans accounted for 42.8%, a 3.2 point edge. However, of the 15,181 voters who cast absentee ballots, Republicans cast 51.1% of those votes compared to just 40.2% for the Democrats. The parties were virtually even (42.3% R vs. 41.4% D) for the 1,832 provisional ballots.
Cut 2: All Twelve Counties
Large parts of Baltimore, Harford and Anne Arundel Counties are outside District 1 but the data does not allow disaggregation below the county level. Nevertheless, the trend among all twelve counties may be instructive. In 2006, 52.7% of all poll voters were Democrats compared to just 36.3% for the Republicans – a 16.4 point edge. However, Republicans accounted for 50.4% of the absentee voters compared to 41.4% for the Democrats – a 9.0 point edge in the opposite direction. That is a total swing of 25.4 points! And bear in mind that the areas of these three counties inside District 1 tend to be conservative precincts. (Democrats held a 7.0 point edge in provisional voting, but the total number of those votes was only one-fifth of the absentees.)
Either way, Republicans dramatically outperformed Democrats in the 2006 absentee vote.
The Post reports that 25,239 absentee ballots remain to be counted. If Andy Harris wins 52% of them, he would net 1,010 votes over Kratovil – enough to cover his current deficit of 915. Given past patterns, that is a conservative performance estimate for a Republican in District 1.
Unless absentee voting patterns have fundamentally changed in the last two years, Andy Harris could well be going to Congress.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Maryland's Presidential Map
Obama ran up an impressive 61-37 margin over McCain in the Old Line State. However, it is how he did it that should worry Republicans.
According to unofficial returns, the core Democratic counties somehow managed to get even more Democratic. Montgomery went 71% for Obama compared to 66% for Kerry. An incredible 89% and 88% of voters in Prince George's and Baltimore City, respectively, voted for Obama compared to 82% for Kerry. These shifts make it harder for the GOP to win even if they pull off gains elsewhere.
And where those gains will be made appears less and less clear. Charles County appears to have completed the political shift into the solid Democratic camp which was apparent at the last state election. While Kerry won just 51% of the vote in Charles, Obama managed an impressive 63%. Howard also shows signs of moving from lean Democratic to solid Democratic, ramping up the share of the vote for the Democratic nominee from 54% to 60%.
Ironically, the political map of Maryland by counties conceals a bit more than it reveals as Obama did quite well even in areas colored red on the map, particularly in the fast-growing outer suburbs. Frederick County, supposedly part of the Republican core, gave 48% of the vote to Obama and just 50% to McCain--a sharp change from the 39% won by Kerry.
Anne Arundel gave Bush 56% in 2004 but McCain just 51% in 2008. Calvert similarly gave just 53% to McCain after voting 59% for Bush. Even Harford and Carroll drifted about 5% in the Democratic direction even if McCain still racked up stronger margins there. Obama also ran strongly in Kent, Somerset and Wicomico on the Eastern Shore, exceeding 45% of the vote in all three counties.
Obama gained just 1% over Kerry in Garrett, a county with a Republican pedigree dating back to the Civil War--a result that mirrored national trends of Republican gains in Appalachia. However, I somehow doubt that will give Maryland Republicans too much comfort.
Secretary Rice on President-Elect Obama's Victory
An extremely gracious statement by the Secretary of State. Even if you disagree strongly with the policies she developed and defended, I think you have to admire the style with which she did it.
Advantage: Ficker
Technically speaking, the fate of Robin Ficker’s latest anti-tax charter amendment has not been settled. But we fully expect it will soon become law.
With all precincts counted, Montgomery County’s unofficial results report 169,762 votes in favor of the Ficker Amendment and 169,171 votes against – a margin of 591 votes. That means the vote will come down to absentee and provisional ballots. We believe these ballots will give Ficker a larger margin and thereby seal his victory for the following two reasons:
1. The history of non-precinct voters favors Ficker
In the 2006 General Election, precinct voters favored O’Malley over Ehrlich by 63-36%, Cardin over Steele by 68-31% and Leggett over Floyd by 68-22%. Non-precinct voters, of whom the vast majority were domestic absentee voters, favored O’Malley over Ehrlich by 58-41%, Cardin over Steele by 63-36% and Leggett over Floyd by 64-27%. So in these three races on average, the Republican candidate overperformed by 4.7 points among non-precinct voters when compared to precinct voters. This suggests a small conservative skew that will benefit Ficker.
In the 2004 General Election, precinct voters favored Kerry over Bush by 66-33% and Mikulksi over Pipkin by 72-26%. Non-precinct voters favored Kerry over Bush by 69-29% and Mikulski over Pipkin by 73-24%. So in these two races on average, the Democrat overperformed by 2.6 points among non-precinct voters when compared to precinct voters. This suggests a tiny skew favoring the Democrats, which runs contrary to conventional wisdom. However, another Ficker Amendment appeared on the 2004 ballot which was nearly identical to this year’s amendment. Precinct voters rejected that Ficker proposal by a 59-41 margin. Non-precinct voters rejected it by a 55-45 margin. Ficker outperformed among non-precinct voters by 3.8 points. If that pattern holds this year, Ficker will win.
2. Absentee voters are less likely to have heard anti-Ficker arguments
The anti-Ficker coalition made its case against the amendment in two ways. First, an anti-Ficker mailer went out near the end of last week. Second, MCEA’s Apple Ballot carriers distributed the teachers’ recommendation against the proposal and made a point of telling voters that it originated with Robin Ficker. Absentees may very well have voted prior to receiving the mailer and almost certainly were not exposed to the on-the-ground Apple Ballot.
It will take awhile for the results to come in, but the above data strongly suggests that Robin Ficker has finally triumphed.
On Election 2008
Everywhere in America, liberals are awakening to sunrise after eight cold years of darkest night. They celebrate. They dream. But they should also reflect.
Euphoria on the left is understandable given the failures of the Bush regime and the rancor of the political season. It is the latter factor that fuels the left’s sense of triumph as well as its sense of grievance.
Do you remember the campaigns of President Reagan? His critique of the left was very different than that of his heirs. Reagan and his disciples believed liberals were weak, misguided and naïve, but not treasonous. Reagan desired victory but had no need to demonize his adversaries.
Twenty years later, a candidate for Vice-President accuses her opponent of “palling around with terrorists” and praises the “pro-America areas of this great nation.” When President Bush said, “You are with us or you are with the terrorists,” his statement was intended for foreign governments. Governor Palin has directed that sentiment at the American people. We will never forget that.
This is part of a pattern extending back to the election of 2000. Karl Rove taught us that victory was not enough; permanent domination and humiliation of the other side was the real goal. In the Rovian world, the victors gloat insufferably, indulging themselves in the gleeful excesses of power. The losers sulk in vengeful fury, vowing retribution. This is not the America of my childhood. And I hope it is not the America of my old age.
As for John McCain, he is a decent man who succumbed to the pressures of an intense campaign. He is not the first politician to do so and he will not be the last. But let us remember the good in this son of America who spent much of his youth in North Vietnamese jails. When I recall Senator McCain in future years, I will remember the man who refused to leave captivity until POWs held longer than him were released. I will remember the man who made common cause with Ted Kennedy and Russ Feingold. I will remember the man who relentlessly pursued corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff in the face of great embarrassment to his own party. But most of all, I will remember the man who stood up to President Bush and told him that torture was wrong.
Look around the country! Nearly half of our fellow citizens voted for Senator McCain. Are they all deluded, racist, nativist or ignorant? Of course not. Just like us, they are anxious about the future. They do not want failure. Neither do we. Many of them recognize that George W. Bush has accomplished something unique in American history: he has bequeathed to his successor two raging wars, an apocalyptic economic crisis and diminished standing in the world. All of us, Obama voters and McCain voters, have to live with the smoldering devastation of that legacy. That alone provides cause for alliance.
So put away those champagne bottles. Put on your hardhats. Strap on your toolbelts. Report to the jobsite and take your place with moderates, independents and conservatives. It’s time to leave the strong words of Election 2008 in the past. It’s time to rebuild America.
Ficker Amendment Narrowly Winning
According to unofficial results from all 243 Montgomery precincts, the Ficker amendment has passed by a margin of 591 votes--the totals are 169,762 to 169,171, or 50.09% to 49.91%. Passage of the amendment changes "Section 305 of the County Charter to require a unanimous vote of 9 Councilmembers, rather than the 7 out of 9 votes currently required, to levy a tax on real property that will produce revenue that exceeds the annual limit on property tax revenue set in that section."
Kratovil Looks Strong
Kratovil still leads by 2%, or around 4000 votes, in the First Congressional District with 93% of precincts counted. A great pickup for the Democrats in a district that went heavily for President Bush just four years ago.
Update: His lead is down to 916 votes, or 0.3%, but Kratovil appears headed to Congress according to unofficial results.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Congratulations Chris and House Dems
The U.S. House results are still trickling in but looking very good at this hour, though I don't yet have an idea of the overall Democratic gain. More information after the jump.
In Maryland, Kratovil leads in the First District by around 4000 votes or 2% with 81% of precincts reporting. A stunning outcome in a formerly safe Republican district. Thank you Club for Growth and Wayne Gilchrist.
In Virginia, Democrats have won the seat formerly held by Tom Davis in northern Virginia. Democratic candidates currently have narrow leads in two seats held by Republican incumbents Virgil Goode and Thelma Drake. Looks like the Old Dominion is not just going for Obama but giving the Dems a three seat net gain to flip the House delegation to a 6-5 Democratic advantage.
Before the election, the Democrats held 1 of 3 seats in New Mexico. It looks like we will pick up both of two seats vacated by Republicans who ran for the Senate.
Chris Shays lost his seat in Connecticut leaving the GOP with no House seats in New England. In neighboring New York, the Republicans have been relegated to 3 seats out of 29 assuming that Democrats retain their narrow lead in the one seat yet to be called by CNN.
Democrats look likely to take a seat even in McCain's home state of Arizona. The gain of one seat in Arizona turns the delegation from an evenly divided 4-4 to 5-3 Democratic.
Berthiaume Defeating Abrams
With 186 of 243 precincts reporting, School Board challenger Laura Berthiaume is leading incumbent Steve Abrams by 108,207-102,026 (51.3-48.4%). Phil Kauffman is blowing away Tommy Le by 2-1.
Looks like Steve Abrams has finally run out of friends.
Update: With 212 of 243 precincts reporting, Berthiaume is holding on to a 126,275-118,905 lead (51-48%). Bear in mind that both the Post and the Gazette endorsed Abrams while Berthiaume was supported by MCEA.
Slots Passes, Bartlett Wins (Updated)
Based on county results as of 11 PM, we're calling both these contests. We are not yet calling Harris-Kratovil because too many of the Eastern Shore counties are not reporting yet.
Slots
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, approve 63-37
Baltimore City: 46,311 votes for, 30,511 against (approve 60-40)
Baltimore County: 111 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Calvert: 23 of 26 precincts, approve 63-37
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, approve 59-41
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Howard: 29 of 110 precincts, approve 56-44
Montgomery: 163 of 243 precincts, approve 52-48
Prince George's: 103 of 218 precincts, approve 59-41
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, approve 61-39
Saint Mary's: 31 of 31 precincts, approve 63-37
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, approve 67-33
Congress District 1
Baltimore County: 15 of 24 precincts, Harris 8,686-Kratovil 5,591 (61-39)
Harford: 35 of 38 precincts, Harris 21,323-Kratovil 15,539 (58-42)
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, Kratovil 11,545-Harris 9,457 (55-45)
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, Kratovil 20,591-Harris 15,487 (57-43)
Congress District 6
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, Bartlett 9,465-Dougherty 6,004 (61-39)
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, Bartlett 14,351-Dougherty 7,063 (67-33)
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, Bartlett 41,476-Dougherty 34,213 (55-45)
Harford: 9 of 12 precincts, Bartlett 6,506-Dougherty 3,200 (67-33)
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, Bartlett 19,008-Dougherty 14,866 (56-44)
Update: CNN reports that with 81% of precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 128,143 to 124,241 (50-48%).
Update 2: With 89% of precincts reporting, Kratovil's lead is down to 1,721 (135,640 to 133,919, or 49-49%).
Update 3: With 93% of precincts reporting, Kratovil now leads by 3,866 votes (145,163 to 141,297, or 50-48%). Andy Harris may not concede this race quickly because of absentee ballots, but Kratovil is in the driver's seat.
Ficker Amendment Very Tight
According to the MoCo Board of Election unofficial results at 10:30pm, the Ficker amendment (aka County Question B) leads by 1.36%. Looks like voters are feeling grumpy about those tax increases last year.
Update from Adam: With 178 of 243 precincts reporting, Ficker is now losing by just 71 votes (115,019-114,948). MoCo has had close votes on Ficker Amendments before, but this is incredible.
Update 2: With 186 of 243 precincts, Ficker is losing by 253 votes (122,830-122,577). This may come down to absentees.
Update 3: With 212 of 243 precincts, Ficker is losing by 650 votes (143,587-142,937). How much do you want to bet Ficker will go banana-cakes and demand a recount?
Update 4: Folks, you just can't make this stuff up. With 241 of 243 precincts, Ficker is now winning by 201 votes (165,727-165,526). We are not going to know the final outcome of this until every single vote is counted.
Slots Results Thread
Here's the latest on slots.
At 9:40 PM, here's how a few counties are going.
Baltimore City: 19,264 votes for, 11,758 against (approve 62-38)
Baltimore County: 59 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Frederick: 12 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Montgomery: 59 of 243 precincts, approve 54-46
Prince George's: 60 of 218 precincts, approve 60-40
Washington: 15 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 10 of 38 precincts, approve 65-35
Note: At the moment, Baltimore County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 58-39%. Wicomico County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 49.16%-48.52%. Harford County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 56-40%. Frederick County is voting for Bartlett over Dougherty by 52-44%. Washington County is voting for Bartlett over Dougherty by 53-43%.
The Baltimore County precincts in Congress District 1 are some of the most conservative in the district and are much needed by Andy Harris. Jennifer Dougherty cannot win Congress District 6 if she loses Frederick County.
Our Classy Congressman
Maryland Moment has the story:
At Temple Emanuel in Kensington, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) stood in line for 40 minutes with the rest of his consituents, who offered to let him jump ahead.
"There's no way I'm jumping the line," he said, preferring to talk with voters in Maryland's 8th Congressional District and answer their questions.
As the Polls Close
Here's a handy timeline from the Glover Park Group for evaluating the election as the polls close.
Pictures at an Exhibition
Here's the scene at my home precinct, 13-24 - a pretty little neighborhood hiding in the shadow of the Intersection of Death. Voters started showing up around 6 AM, fully an hour before the polls opened. By 7 AM, 300 people had arrived, most of whom were in a line snaking throughout the precinct building's interior. Here's the tail end.
State Senator Rich Madaleno (second from left) and Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher (third from left) came by to cheer on the Democratic volunteers. Note how the crew's youngest member dressed up for the occasion.
This cheerful lady is a member of MCEA's famous Apple Ballot legions. The 800-pound Gorilla's goals this year are electing Phil Kauffman and Laura Berthiaume to the school board and defeating the much-detested Ficker Amendment.
Here is one of hundreds of thousands of MCDCC sample ballots being distributed to a voter. If the slots referendum vote is close in other parts of the state, the MoCo Dems' sample ballot will probably defeat it. As we have previously reported, the county's Democratic Party voted to oppose its own governor and urge its members to vote against slots.
In my precinct, there were 1,975 registered voters and 1,463 cards cast in the 2004 General Election - a turnout rate of 74%. As of 3:30 today, there were 2,050 registered voters and 1,250 cards cast - a turnout rate of 61% prior to the evening rush. Poll workers expect at least 200 absentee ballots. It is entirely possible that turnout here could approach 90%.
We'll be back later to look at some results in Maryland and Montgomery County as soon as the data comes in!
Photos from the Polls in Chevy Chase
Obama Leads in First Ballots Counted
Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire have followed their tradition of voting just after midnight on Election Day and quickly counting the ballots. Obama won the two towns by 32 votes to just 16 for McCain. According to Wikipedia, Obama is the first Democrat to carry Dixville Notch since Humphrey beat Nixon in the town in 1968. Oh, and Shaheen leads Sununu by 12 votes to 6 in Dixville Notch in the U.S. Senate race--an ominous start for the Republicans in an area they've usually done well.
Meet MoCo's Most Independent Woman
Gaithersburg resident Geneva Garner, age 108, has voted in more elections than you ever will.
As a blogger, I hear a lot of things. Most of them aren’t very interesting but this item caught my eye. MCDCC officers Alan Banov and Milt Minneman told me there was a 108-year-old woman in Gaithersburg who was going to vote Democratic for the first time. Now I was very skeptical of this, having heard of a 108-year-old woman in North Carolina who was also going to vote for Obama. So I told them, “Something is fishy here... How many 108-year-old Obama voters can there be? I'm not inclined to bite on this line.”
But their source contacted me and supplied me the name of her 108-year-old friend: Geneva Garner. Sure enough, Ms. Garner really is 108. So I drove up to Gaithersburg to meet her at her voting place.
Being a Silver Spring guy, I naturally got lost on the way there. I arrived barely in time as Ms. Garner was entering her community building. Ms. Garner says she has been voting regularly since women first won the right to vote in 1920. She is a Republican but votes “independently.”
And so came the big moment. I asked, “Do you mind if I ask who you’re voting for?” Ms. Garner replied, “I just made up my mind this morning. I’m voting for Ralph Nader. The two parties are for big business!” Ms. Garner has been voting since the time that cars replaced horses and NO ONE is going to tell her how to vote!
I just have one thing to say to Mr. Banov and Mr. Minneman: you, dear sirs, owe me a bon-bon!
MPW Election Predictions
For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!
The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:
Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)
Here's our picks:
President by State
Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman
Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin
Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco
North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.
Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.
Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!
Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.
Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.
Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.
Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.
Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.
Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.
Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.
Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.
Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.
Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.
Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.
Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.
Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.
U.S. Senate
Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin
Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin
Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."
Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.
New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.
North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."
Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.
The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).
Maryland
U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin
U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.
Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.
MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.
MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin
We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!
Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.
David's Picks
Some of you have been kind enough to ask how I'm voting this year and why. Here goes:
Yes, We Can: Barack Obama for President
Others have no doubt said it better but I have never seen a presidential candidate inspire so many people in my lifetime. My students are energized and my neighborhood is a sea of Obama signs. The campaign feels more like a movement than a campaign. Yet, I also cannot recall a campaign so organized or disciplined--an aspect which bodes well for an Obama Administration.
And the country badly needs that organization and inspiration to deal with the economic crisis at home, two wars abroad, and the continuing threat of terrorism. America has never been so isolated abroad--something I've seen vividly on my own travels and which would change rapidly as the election of Obama reminds our friends of why they admire and respect the values and the leadership of the United States.
More importantly, Obama has the temperament and the judgment to make for an outstanding president. He's thoughtful and smart enough to learn from his inevitable mistakes. His presidential campaign has visibly demonstrated that he knows how to run a large organization--and not let it run him.
His pragmatic approach combined with determination should allow us to make progress on a range of issues. Obama understands that our national security is linked to our energy policy and the environment. I have confidence that Obama will work to make education and health care more accessible to all Americans and not just wait for the benefits of recession to trickle down. And he'll continue to ask Americans for their help in improving our country--not just for their votes.
When the general election campaign started, I thought that America would have a spirited campaign focusing primarily on the issues between Barack Obama and John McCain. Like many Democrats, even if I didn't plan to vote for Senator McCain, I respected his service to our country and his courage not just as a soldier but in standing up to the Bush Administration on a number of issues, particularly the treatment of POWs.
I don't know what the Republican Party has done with that John McCain but I sure wish they'd bring him back. Throughout the campaign, Senator McCain has proclaimed himself a "maverick" even as he has embraced closely not just the Bush-Cheney record but their divisive tactics that fail to recognize that we can disagree on politics without losing our mutual respect and a sense of common destiny as Americans.
McCain's economic policy seems to consist wholly of reheating the failed Bush strategy of cutting taxes for the wealthy and running up massive deficits. McCain's slogan is "country first" and great strengths are supposedly leadership and experience. Yet he chose someone unprepared to assume office as his running mate and his major response to the economic crisis was to exploit it for political advantage.
Ultimately, McCain blinked as his "I shall go to Washington" strategy only highlighted his lack of ideas or engagement with the economy. In contrast, Obama remained calm even as he handled this tricky issue well and coolly faced down McCain's demand to cancel the presidential debate. While McCain looked erratic and unpredictable, Obama visibly demonstrated leadership and his ability to handle a tough situation with aplomb.
However, the worst aspect of the McCain campaign has been its reliance on the politics of demonization. The McCain campaign has oddly attacked Obama for being eloquent, having gained admission to prestigious schools, and having chosen public service--in other words for being an example of the American Dream at work and the success for which every parent hopes for their children.
Obama works to overcome divisions and proclaims that we don't live in red states or blue states but in the United States. McCain and Palin divide us as they talk about "real Americans" and caricature Obama as a socialist and terrorist. (Question: if Obama wins, is his victory a mandate for socialism and terrorism?)
As I wrote when I explained why I supported Barack Obama in the primary: "Americans love this country deeply and desperately want someone who can restore their faith in it and their government. Barack Obama can do that. Our nation's most successful self-made businesswoman, Oprah Winfrey, got it right when she said 'He's the One.'"
Congress: Bring Back Chris, Bring On Donna
Chris Van Hollen has been an outstanding representative, working his way up the congressional ladder and achieving a high degree of influence and effectiveness in an astonishingly short time. Despite being Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), he has maintained a strong presence in the Eighth District.
Democrats won most of the low-hanging fruit in 2006 when they took back the House, so taking over the DCCC for the 2008 was not an easy task. Thanks to excellent candidate recruitment and fundraising, Democrats are positioned to increase their majority approximately 25 to 30 seats--way up from the maximum of ten most pundits thought possible after 2006--and our congressman's influence--and thus ours--will only rise.
I don't live in Donna's district but it will be a welcome breadth of fresh air for the Fourth to have an outspoken representative focused on public policy and the needs of her district--not on corporate interests or local politics. She's already amping up the quality of representation in Maryland.
School Board: Laura Berthiaume in District 2
Adam Pagnucco has explained why it is Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams--the last Republican serving at the county level in Montgomery County. Vote for Laura Berthiaume for more tolerant representation on the school board.
Chris Barclay is unopposed for an at-large seat and Phil Kauffman faces perennial candidate Tommy Le in District 2.
Question 1: Yes on Early Voting
A sensible reform which makes it easier to vote and helps avoid problems associated with record turnouts on Election Day.
Question 2: No on Slots
I'm not a diehard on either side of this debate but I'll be voting against slots. I outlined the arguments for and against slots sometime ago. The best arguments for slots remain that it would allow the State to capture money spent by Marylanders on slot machines in neighboring states and that the government shouldn't be in the business of regulating sin.
Nonetheless, I think it unwise for a high income, educated state like Maryland to be moving into a downmarket industry like slots. I also see no need for the State to hand out a few licenses--which might as well be to print money--to a few select individuals in order to subsidize the horse racing industry. It's a short-term fix for a budget crisis that our history suggests we'll likely regret over the long term.
Question A on Updating County Charter: Yes
Question B: Vote No on the latest version of the Ficker Amendment
Adam Pagnucco gives his reasons why. I'll just say that if Robin Ficker wants the Council to adopt different policies, he should convince us to change who we elect to office, not the County Charter.
Cockroaches Pray for Bradley Effect
I've read a lot of amazing stuff on Red Maryland, but this tops it all.
Anticipating a victory by Barack Obama, conservative blogger Chester Peake said the following last night:Obama has promised change... his change is something we just cannot afford. I do not know how we will be able to legally thwart that change, but we must find ways of doing so. I hope the Bradley Effect (which is NOT racist, just a fear of being Wrongly Called a racist) and other factors serve to restore a sense of sanity to the decision tomorrow.
You know, we should probably not do those poor cockroaches an injustice by comparing them to Mr. Peake.
I Hope & Pray for a positive outcome, but if it does not happen, we must be on our guard. Some haters will stop at nothing to squash us into oblivion like bugs. We will have to be the cockroaches, that survive their worst efforts and live to bug them another day.
Monday, November 03, 2008
MASSIVE Obama Rally in Manassas
The sound quality is poor as Senator Obama has not yet taken the stage, but just look at the colossal crowd. We may not see this much excitement about a Presidential candidate for a long, long time.
Maryland's Sordid Slots History About to be Repeated
By Wayne Goldstein, MCCF Immediate Past President.
In 1905, American philosopher George Santayana, wrote: "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." Maryland voters appear to be ready to condemn themselves to repeating one of their state's worst episodes. But before they do, let's review that sordid history as reported by The Washington Post.
Slots were first legalized in Maryland in 1943 in Anne Arundel County. Calvert County got slots in 1947, the same year that Charles, St. Mary's and Worchester Counties also tried to "put the counties in better financial condition and particularly help their school programs." Only St. Mary's County succeeded that year. Charles County and Prince George's County won state and voter approval for slots in 1949. The Charles County bill called for slots revenues to be used for a "reduction of the Charles County real estate [tax,]… reduction of outstanding school bonds and interest" and for a fire company, library and hospital fund. The Prince George's law was ruled invalid and unconstitutional because of its vague wording that called slots "amusement devices." In the end, slots were only legalized in Anne Arundel, Calvert, Charles and St. Mary's Counties.
In 1950, Congress banned the interstate shipment of slot machines unless a state sought exemption. Only Nevada did so. Maryland decided not to seek this waiver because of "a fear of outsiders 'muscling in' on Maryland's slot machine business." In 1958, one of the three largest U. S. slot machine manufacturers relocated to Maryland from Chicago to be in the only other state truly friendly to slots outside of Nevada and to also be able to supply the Maryland market. Most of its business was in Nevada, where it also had an assembly plant in Reno that supplied 80%-90% of that city's machines.
In 1951, a Prince George's County state senator reported being offered a $30,000 bribe to support gambling. In 1963, a state delegate claimed he was offered $300 to be out of the room when a vote on an anti-slots bill came up for a vote. In 1966, Spiro Agnew reported being offered a $200,000 bribe to support gambling while running for governor.
One of the most bizarre gambling issues was the placing of slots on piers in Colonial Beach, Va. Charles County, Md. was allowed to license slots on these Virginia piers and neither Maryland nor Virginia officials could stop it because the building was in the section of the Potomac River considered to be part of Charles County. There were 600 slot machines at the Reno, the Monte Carlo, and the S.S. Freestone at Freestone Point, Va. In 1958, Maryland banned such river-based gambling by passing a law that made it illegal "to operate slot machines in a structure which could not be reached on foot from the Maryland shore." The Supreme Court refused to review the law.
A March 1954 article titled: "Slot Addict Draws 2-Year Jail Term" stated that "A [man] with an 'uncontrollable urge' to play slot machines drew a two-year term here today for stealing $1765 [$13,500 in 2007 dollars] worth of the 'one-armed bandits' and their cash contents…"
In the summer of 1954, the Washington Post sent a reporter to Charles County to see what had happened to Charles County five years after legalizing slots. He wrote a five-part series. "Charles County - where the slot machine is king - may best be described as the place where the gambler winks at the law while the public official keeps his eyes closed… It is where prosperity has come to some 300 individuals - the slot machine owners and operators - who enjoy a take of more than five million dollars a year. [$38 million in 2007 dollars] It is where money transactions are mostly secret - and sometimes a mystery. As one bank official in the county put it, We put out 10 tons of coins a week, but practically none of it ever gets back.' …It is where a man loses $15,000 [$115,000 in 2007 dollars] of his father's estate by pulling a handle, and the community gives it only a passing thought." The Post reporter observed children under 16 being encouraged to gamble, numerous examples of slots license applications being incomplete, and non-residents being allowed to operate machines in violation of the law.
"In the five years… the gambled nickel has helped build dozens of plush new places worth millions along the 20-mile tobacco land stretch of U.S. 301…" "You don't open your mouth to voice disfavor in Charles County 'if you know what's good for you.' To be seen talking to a newspaper reporter is poison on the communities swept by fear of open self-expression… Store proprietors who handle none of the one-armed bandits said they cannot express their opinion 'for the record' lest their businesses suffer a financial setback.
"Today, even ministers, still deeply set against what they call 'the curse,' speak in low voices, and only on the promise that 'you won't use my name.' There are other preachers, bitterly outspoken against the slots, but they no longer serve Charles County… On six occasions, agents for distributors, tavern owners and one public official suggested to the… reporter to 'get out of the county.' …A LaPlata storekeeper related how his neighbor's boy stole $20 from his own mother and lost it all in a nickel machine at the corner drug store…"
As a result of this series, a grand jury was convened to look in to the allegations of flagrant violations of alcoholic beverage, child gambling, and slot machine registration laws, which included questioning the reporter. According to an October 1954 editorial: "The report filed Tuesday by the Charles County grand jury can give scant pride to the county's residents… These findings regarding slot machines are identical with assertions contained in [the reporter's] stories… These are facts which the people of Charles County need to recognize and face and weigh. They are, we think, the inevitable price of legalized gambling. They are the dividends which the county as a whole receives from the slot machine profits siphoned off by a privileged few."
A month later, the Post was able to report that "…Democrats captured control of the Board of [Charles] County Commissioners after a pre-election pledge to end the slot machine and liquor 'mess' in the county… In Charles County, long a Republican stronghold, slot machine and liquor law violations became a campaign issue after a grand jury denounced abuses and recommended clean-up action."
In a 1959 series, the Post reported: "Charles County is in the economic doldrums, with slot machine profits balancing the budgets of the County itself and of some 300 of its businesses… Heavy slot machine revenues have allowed the County Commissioners to drop their real estate tax rate to the lowest level in the State… The small [slots] operators are desperately fearful that the big, new casinos in the County, with the guaranteed jackpots and advertising will win away their customers…"
Another 1959 article stated: "The director of the Maryland Crime Investigating Committee said today his organization received funds recently from Anne Arundel's 11 slot machine distributors. The director… said the contributions were received with 'complete objectivity and impartiality.' 'The agency… will not protect any individuals who have or have not contributed to its financial operations. But it must be understood that an organization of this type cannot operate without money. We are not supported financially by the State, county or other public aid.' "
In 1960, Charles County voters narrowly approved limiting establishments to no more than 35 slot machines each. For the 1962 election, Charles County resident David Hume decided to run for Governor on a platform that emphasized outlawing slots. His advocacy and candidacy successfully pushed incumbent Governor Tawes to promise the "eventual abolition of slot machines in Maryland." Maryland Comptroller Louis Goldstein, a Southern Maryland native whose brother's cruise line took passengers to a casino, also backed slots abolition. In 1963, a plan was drafted to phase out slots from 1965-1968. It was passed that year, but not before the House of Delegates went from narrowly voting to oppose the plan to voting overwhelmingly for it a week later. The Maryland Senate managed to fend off strangling amendments to also pass it.
In 1965, the Maryland Senate killed a bill to delay the abolition of slots by two years. During the phase out, which required establishments to reduce the number of slot machines every year, some operators tried to get around it by creating multiple-unit slot machines that allowed up to ten players to put coins in for each pull of the handle. The state passed a bill in 1966 to thwart this effort by determining that such ten-unit machines would count as 10 machines, rather than as one.
Also in 1966, slots supporters got a judge to issue an injunction prohibiting enforcement of the slots ban. The Court of Special Appeals overruled the judge. In 1966, Spiro Agnew campaigned to support the phase out of slots, and followed through as Governor. He also supported banning pinball machines, which were being used to provide cash or prizes as a substitute for slot machines.
In March 1968, a few months before the total ban was to go into effect on July 1, an aide to the Comptroller recommended legalizing slot machines throughout the state, saying they would bring in $50 million [$295 million in 2007 dollars]. It went nowhere. In December 1968, the Court of Appeals ruled "that machines converted to pay off in merchandise or tokens were just as illegal as those that paid off in cash." Only pinball machines paying off in free games were legal.
Bills were unsuccessfully introduced in the next few years to legalize slots again. The focus then shifted to being among the first to legalize a lottery, which was approved by voters in 1972. A 1981 story about the introduction of a permanent instant lottery described the effect it had on people: " '…Just like slot machines. I could buy these tickets all night, This is fun. It's almost like going to Atlantic City. I'm going to buy one more.' " A man noted: " 'You're spending unnecessary money that you don't have to spend,' he said. 'If this game hadn't come up, if I hadn't have spent, I'd have put it for my kids in school, and for payments on my new car.' But he kept buying the tickets."
A 1990 story about the Lottery pointed out that ours "is among the nation's leaders in per capita receipts… The state remains of two minds, spending about $6 million annually to advertise the lottery, then contributing $10,000 a year to a hot line operated by the National Center for Pathological Gambling… The $360 million expected to be contributed by the lottery this year will make it the state's third-largest source of general fund income… Lawmakers again this year are of many minds about gambling… [Some] want to siphon off lottery money for the estimated 170,000 Maryland adults classified in a recent [NIH] study as 'problem' or 'pathological' gamblers."
Throughout the '90s, there was a constant undercurrent of lobbying for slots. It was strongest in the run-up to the 1998 election, when challengers to incumbent Governor Glendening indicated they would support legalizing slots as adjacent states implemented or increased gambling opportunities, even as he remained unequivocally opposed to slots.
On November 4, some who will vote for slots will do so knowing of these mistakes of gambling, but not really caring. The phrase "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" could also apply to the backlash against slots abuses in the '50s that led to the bans of the '60s. Recent studies have found that gambling addiction begins to take off about one year after slots are introduced and crime starts to rise about five years after gambling facilities open. We may find that around 2015, Marylanders really notice the harms of slots. That's when those who so blithely voted for slots may begin to think that it's time to repeal them. Perhaps around 2025, Maryland will have once again done so.
Barack the Vote
There are seven offices (yep, seven) at which you can volunteer in Montgomery County so no excuses for not doing your bit--locations below the jump. I went down to the Bethesda office and then walked over to the satellite office in the Metropolitan and made around fifty calls for Obama after lunch. You can even make calls to get out the vote at barackobama.com from the comfort of your home. Do it for America.
Bethesda Obama Office: 7832 Wisconsin Ave.; 4 blocks north of Bethesda Metro Station and Old Georgetown Rd. and across from CVS
Lots of computers and lots of cell phones BUT NOT ENOUGH!!! Bring your own cell phones, chargers and laptops.
Open 7:30a.m. - 9:00p.m.
All satellite offices below are open 10a.m. to 9p.m. since we will be calling to other time zones.
Rockville/Gaithersburg
438 N. Frederick Ave Suite 315
Fairview Building
If heading north on 270 to exit 11 - Montgomery Village Ave (E Md124).
Right on N. Frederick.
Plenty of parking.
- 4 landlines; 12 computers and wifi.
Gaithersburg
600 South Frederick Ave/ Corner of Deer Park Drive
If heading north on 270 to exit 11 - Montgomery Village Ave (E Md 124).
Right on Frederick.
Destination will be on the right.
From Shady Grove Metro Station, take RideOn Bus 55 (towards GERMANTOWN TRANSIT CENTER) or 59 (towards MONTGOMERY VILLAGE MALL), and get off at S FREDERICK AV & CENTRAL AV.
- 8 landlines; no computers.
Bethesda
The Metropolitan
7620 Old Georgetown Rd, Bethesda, in Penthouse
- 1 minute walk from Bethesda Metro Station. Intersection of Old Georgetown Rd and Woodmont Ave. Parking is available in a garage that can be accessed on Edgemoor Lane or from Woodmont Ave.
- 13 computers and space for 100 cell phone and private wireless laptop users.
Bethesda
Hampden Lane
4801 Hampden Lane, Bethesda
- 1 minute walk from Bethesda Metro Station; turn on Hampden. Go one block and make a right on East Lane; go up the steps on your left leading up to a plaza; go across plaza to building on the left. Office is Suite 105, EZ-GSA.
- 11 computers; 7 land lines; 8 spaces for cells
Rockville
60 West Gude (MCEA office where Obama meetings have been held)
From 270, take exit 8 for Shady Grove Rd
Turn left at Key W Ave/MD-28/W Montgomery Ave
Turn left at W Gude Dr.
Destination will be on the right. Look for sign that says West Gude Office Park
Accessible via Metro using RideOn 63 & RideOn 57.
-10 landlines, no computers.
Rockville
3 Research Place
From 270, take exit 8 for Shady Grove Rd.
Turn left at Research Blvd and then turn left at Research Pl.
Destination will be on the right.
Take RideOn Bus 43 from Shady Grove Metro Station or RideOn Bus 54 from Rockville Metro Station.
-9 land lines, no computers.
Silver Spring
Silver Spring Hilton
8727 Colesville Rd.
0.5 mile from Silver Spring Metro Station.
Nearest public parking garages: 1000 Spring Street (payment required 7 am to 7 pm) and 801 Ellsworth Avenue (payment required 7 am to 6 pm).
-10 landlines, no computers, no wifi.
A Comment On Politicians and Slots
We have devoted a great deal of attention to the slots referendum in recent weeks. And it is a compelling issue regardless of which side you take. But even more compelling is the rank hypocrisy surrounding it – a stink of political flatulence that has become so toxic that it is impossible to ignore.
Washington Post columnist Mark Fisher skewered our two recent Governors, noting that Bob Ehrlich was for slots before he was against them, and that Martin O’Malley was against them before he was for them. Their actions may be understandable given the inherent tensions between campaigning and governing. Less understandable is the overnight metamorphosis of slots apologist-turned anti-slots jihadi Peter Franchot. Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett looks better than any of the above, changing his position out of fear of budget cuts despite the unpopularity of slots in the county’s Democratic base.
But so far, the vast majority of our state legislators have gotten a pass. No more. We have chronicled their statements on slots to the Sentinel in recent weeks. We have also noted a general trend of how some of them claim to oppose slots while not signing on or donating money to the anti-slots campaign. Those posts have generated some pushback.
One annoyed legislator complained about an “anti-Democratic” email sent by Marylanders United to Stop Slots, the primary anti-slots group. The email began:Annapolis is a mess. A scathing new report recently concluded that Annapolis bureaucrats can't account for horse racing revenues and that the potential for fraud is high. And guess what, this is the same bureaucratic department that will be in charge of collecting and administering potentially millions in slots receipts.
This legislator said the email “could come right out of a Bob Ehrlich campaign ad” and objected to the implication that sharing money with such a group was necessary to prove anti-slots bona fides. This legislator's view was amply supported by the anti-Annapolis TV ad run by the anti-slots group. Fair enough.
Further, the fact that the group relies heavily on staffers of former (and perhaps future) O’Malley rival Doug Duncan is probably an additional source of sensitivity. Who wants to risk the Governor’s wrath by working with his opponents?
Another legislator reported rumors that Big Daddy, a long-time slots supporter, was constructing a list of slots opponents who would be subject to a “bill moratorium.” In other words, those who actively opposed slots would get no bills through the Senate next year. “Mike Miller doesn’t care about many issues, but slots is one of them,” this individual whispered apprehensively. Whether such a list exists is beside the point – it is in Big Daddy’s interest that everyone believes the rumor to be true. Even a denial from his office (which is unlikely) would not quell the speculation.
These are the kinds of factors that drive many legislators’ decisions in Annapolis, and most of the time, this would be entirely appropriate. Relationships with the Governor, with Big Daddy, with leadership and with other legislators are vital to the success of any state officeholder.
But slots opponents have always cast the issue as, at least partially, a moral one. Gambling is wrong, they say. It creates addiction and crime. It preys on the weak, the poor and the helpless. It debases society. If all of this is true, then what is mere politics in the face of such an immoral scourge as slots?
Nevertheless, a rather large number of state legislators have engaged in the following four acts.
1. They have said they oppose slots in part because they are regressive.
2. They voted to approve a $700+ million regressive sales tax increase during the special session.
3. They held their noses and voted in favor of the slots referendum, vowing to defeat it later at the ballot box. (I defended this position a year ago, but promptly laid out a plan for how to beat the referendum.)
4. They then contributed no measurable or documentable aid to the anti-slots campaign.
No one who has engaged in all four of the actions above can credibly claim to be anti-slots. It defies logic. It defies common sense. It defies the intelligence of the voters. But it does follow the oily laws of politics.
Hispanic Democratic Caucus Endorsements
Here is the Montgomery County Hispanic Democratic Caucus endorsements for the upcoming election:
President and Vice President: Barack Obama
Congress: Donna Edwards (District 4), Chris Van Hollen (District 8)
School Board At-Large: Phil Kauffman
School Board District 2: Laura Berthiaume
School Board District 4: Christopher Barclay
Question 1 on Early Voting: Yes
Question 2 on Slots: No
Question A on Updating County Charter: Yes
Question B on Ficker Amendment: No
MPW’s Record Month
MPW set an all-time internal record for visits in October 2008. But the reasons for this may surprise you.
It is true that two of our most popular series, MoCo’s Most Influential People and Saqib-Mania, appeared in whole or in part last month. But our most sustained increases in traffic have been driven by two completely different issues:
1. MCDCC’s Sample Ballot
Marc Korman’s guest post on the Central Committee’s sample ballot has drawn steady interest. Many people are finding it through Google and coming in directly to that entry. Other than (predictably) supporting all the Democratic candidates for office, the sample ballot outlines the party’s positions on the ballot questions. On the two county questions, the party recommends voting for repeal of legally ineffective charter provisions (Question A) and against the latest Ficker Amendment (Question B). On the two state questions, the party recommends voting for early voting (Question 1) and against slots (Question 2). The report from the party’s Ballot Questions Advisory Committee, which explains why the party adopted its positions, is here.
2. The MoCo School Board Races
MoCo voters are searching for info about the two school board races: the at-large contest between Phil Kauffman and Tommy Le, and the District 2 contest between incumbent Steve Abrams and challenger Laura Berthiaume. They are finding precious little from the mainstream media, but they have been making their way to this blog.
The three posts that have been drawing the most attention, almost always from people who have been referred by search engines, are:
Below the Radar, a guest post by Sharon Dooley in which she expresses her support for Kauffman.
What a Way to Seek an Endorsement, in which I reveal what a kook Tommy Le really is.
Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams, in which I demonstrate how no thinking person on either the left or the right could support his return to the school board. This last post is by far the most popular of the three as it shows up first on a Google search of the terms “Steve Abrams Laura Berthiaume.”
One of the reasons why we are getting record traffic on the school board race is that the mainstream media’s coverage has been so dreadful. The Post’s new piece is decent, but it came out only six days before the election. The Gazette’s coverage of the last school board debate offers less meat than a soy-burger. Neither the Post nor the Gazette report on Abrams’ constant running for every office higher than weasel catcher. Nor do they report the biggest development of the debate: District 2 candidate Laura Berthiaume said she would not run for any other office during her four-year term and challenged Abrams to make the same commitment. Abrams, of course, declined. Ace Gazette reporter Janel Davis would have picked up on that in two seconds, but unfortunately, she was not there.
If the Gazette wants to improve its coverage, they need to do two things.
1. Breed five clones of Ms. Davis and send them to all political events. If you want something done right, assign your best worker to the job.
2. Steal Examiner reporter Kathleen Miller and pay her what she’s worth (easily six digits). Then have Ms. Davis and Ms. Miller compete for the title of “Most Dangerous Woman in Print.” And watch your classified revenues go up.
Until then, we’re happy to get the site visits!
Sunday, November 02, 2008
NBC's Chuck Todd on Maryland
NBC Political Director Chuck Todd had this to say about the Free State in his election guide:About the only major development here is that the state GOP could lose yet another Republican House seat. Believe it or not, Maryland wasn't always this much of a Democratic state, but it sure is looking like one now. Seven of the eight seats could now be Democrat. And I can't find a Republican for miles that appears to have the statewide juice to break the Democrats’ hold on any of these statewide seats. This is a state where the GOP may need to start from scratch.
How do you go from holding the Governor's office to starting from scratch in just two years?
Final Obama Rally in Manassas
This Monday, November 3rd, please join Barack Obama in Manassas for his final Virginia rally before Election Day.
Change We Need Rally
with Barack Obama
Prince William County Fairgrounds
10624 Dumfries Road
Manassas, VA 20112
Monday, November 3rd
Doors Open: 5:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 9:00 p.m.
http://va.barackobama.com/Manassas
This event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required; however, an RSVP is strongly encouraged.
For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal items. No signs or banners allowed.
