Sunday, November 09, 2008

Ficker's Lead Grows

Just as we predicted, Robin Ficker's anti-tax charter amendment is picking up votes as the absentee ballots are counted.

When the precinct count was finished, 170,216 votes supported the Ficker Amendment and 169,603 opposed it - a margin of 613. Domestic absentees supported Ficker by 18,214 to 14,673 - adding 3,541 votes to what is now a total margin of 4,154. While precinct voters supported the amendment by a 50.1-49.9% percentage, domestic absentees supported it by 55.4-44.6%.

Ficker is now certain to win.

Update from David: Adam's right but for the wrong reason. In his original post, he cited stats from past elections which showed that absentee voters trended more Republican than people who voted at the polls. That wasn't the case this year. Absentee voters cast 76% of their votes for Obama, compared to just 72% of Election Day voters. Van Hollen won 78% of the votes of absentees while he won 74% of the votes of Election Day voters. Interestingly, absentee voters were also more likely to vote yes on Question A related to early voting, though not very different from other voters on slots. In other words, absentee voters appear as or more liberal than voters at the polls on all issues except taxes.