Monday, September 20, 2010

Comparing 2010 Primary Election Voting in Leisure World with Voting Elsewhere

By Paul M. Bessel.

If you compare the statistics on voting in Leisure World with voting in the county and district 19, there are some interesting comparisons.

According to the Montgomery County Board of Elections, about 19% of the registered voters in the county cast ballots in the September 14, 2010, primary.

Using statistics from the same source, at least 33% of the registered Democrats in Leisure World cast ballots in that primary, and the number of registered voters in LW is unusually high to begin with, about 7,200 registered out of about 8,500 residents.

While this shows that the voting in LW is very significant, the way LW residents voted differs from the way district 19 and the county voted. (This also happened in last year’s special election for the district 4 County Council seat, where LW voted overwhelmingly for Ben Kramer while Nancy Navarro narrowly won in the district.)

Mike Lenett won in Leisure World by about 225 votes, about 58% to 42%, while Roger Manno won in all of district 19 by about 870 votes, 54% to 46%, so Lenett won in LW by a larger percentage than Manno won in the district. Both Lenett and Manno worked very hard in LW. (LW voting statistics are from the voting machines on Sept 14, where it appears that the votes from one machine were not counted because of a problem with that machine --- and not counting early voting and absentee ballots, which might change the picture somewhat.)

The lineup of votes for district 19 Delegates in Leisure World was Kramer, Arora, Cullison, with 31%, 21%, and 19% of the total votes, while the lineup in district 19 as a whole was Kramer, Cullison, Arora, (reversing the LW results for the 2nd and 3rd spots) by 26%, 21%, and 20%. Ben Kramer is extremely popular in LW, and Arora and Dang were the candidates who probably had more events at LW than others.

For County Council LW voted for Leventhal, Trachtenberg, Floreen, and Elrich, with Riemer in 5th place, by 17%, 17%, 16%, 15%, and 12% of the votes. The county as a whole went for Elrich, Riemer, Floreen, and Leventhal by 18%, 15%, 15%, 14%, and 13%. Riemer probably had more events at LW than other candidates for this position.

Conclusions: Leisure World residents, especially registered Democrats in LW, vote in far larger numbers and percentages than elsewhere. However, the winners and losers in LW are not necessarily the same as in the whole district or county, despite the force of the large LW voting numbers --- which is still extremely significant and will continue to be so.