All elections have tell tale signs of when the mood changes. Almost always it is not when a poll comes out and has you ahead by x points. Usually it is not when a memorable phrase such as when "You are not Jack Kennedy," line was uttered.
The tell tale sign is when some average person not political connected, not hard wired for electoral politics says or does something so obvious that you know the race is over. There is no need to count any more ballots. The result is no longer in doubt.
Here is that story from the Donna Edwards - Al Wynn race yesterday.
The story is not mine. The story comes from Tom Pollow, who is a member of PDA. He was working a Wynn stronghold of a precinct in PG County. A driver for Wynn was delivering lunches to Wynn volunteers just after noon. He came up to Tom and asked him if he was there for Edwards or Wynn. Tom pointed to his buttons and said "Donna". Tom said the Wynn volunteer had left about an hour ago. The driver still had several lunches to dispatch. Tom, a large man who was once a professional wrestler, worked two meals out of the Wynn driver for himself.
Then the two of them started talking about the race. Then came the key moment. The driver asked Tom how did he know that Donna would not stray from her original message. Tom said he didn't know but he did know that if Donna stopped supporting policies to help common folks that PDA and its members would find someone to run against her.
The driver, who remember was paid to deliver food to Wynn supporters, then talked about how Wynn forgot about the people of the district. The driver concluded with "I'm voting for Donna."
At that moment the race was over.
Other observations from the front lines
Sorry this is my first post since the pre-election. I was working as a Democratic Area Coordinator in LD20. I had four precincts that were in CD4 and one in CD8. I also looked in on a few other precincts nearby. The striking thing for me was how many of the Edwards supporters stayed longer at more precincts than Wynn supporters.
Here is a picture of Edwards supporter at the George Meany Center (05-07) which is at New Hampshire Avenue and the Beltway. The Wynn supporter was sitting in her Luxus SUV about 100 yards from the polling place. (The polling place itself is a 200+ yard walk from the parking lot.) The Edwards supporter was about 25 yards from the polling place out in the elements. Note the picture. That's dedication. That's the sign of a winning campaign.
Update: I want to id this person but I forgot to get her name. So if you are out there please respond and I will put your name to this picture.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
A Sure Sign of a Winning Campaign
Freak of the Week
Anyone who can prove the following statement wrong gets a case of Dogfish Head 90 IPA and a no-prize.
Never before in the history of Maryland have two incumbent Congressmen and a MoCo Apple Ballot school board candidate gone down in the same primary night. Go ahead, start doing the research to prove me wrong!
And here is the strangest question you will ever see on a political blog: what do MCEA-backed school board candidate Alies Muskin and my tailbone have in common? Answer: both of them were done in by an ice storm.
MCEA's Apple Ballot, the WMD of county politics, relies on mass volunteering for distribution. Back in 2006, the Teachers fielded at least six Apple Ballot ladies in shifts at my precinct. Yesterday, only one Apple Ballot lady showed up. She left when the flurries started at 11 and no one replaced her. The rain started falling around 2, and a couple hours later, a thin sheet of ice covered every hard surface. I found this out the hard way when I fell down my front steps, ba-BUMP ba-BUMP ba-BUMP. Thus the considerable sympathy in my bruised tailbone for Ms. Muskin's plight. (Worry not, D18 legislators: I can still handle a shovel.) Philip Kauffman and Tommy Le, each of whom had run for school board before, edged out Muskin probably on name recognition alone.
I tell you, people, you can't get election analysis like this on CNN!
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
No Shame for Wynning
Throughout this primary election, I have been willing to overlook Congressman Al Wynn's shortcomings. He had a messy public divorce where he alledgely kicked his wife out of his house on Christmas. He was constantly having to file amended FEC reports because his could not keep his contributions in order. He was active -- almost too active in local PG Co politics -- playing kingmaker when he should have been focusing on being a national legislator. He had some of the worst constituent service where his caseworkers spent more time assulting volunteers for his opponent in August 2006. He was even known to have joked about his "stealing" the election in 2006 when three precinct boxes showed up weeks after the vote helping him to win. But the largest concern was also the main one: He had a series of horrible votes on issues that favored wealthy corporate interests over his own working class electorate. His MoCo supporters have tried to tell me "that he learned his lesson and is a better Congressman" after his narrow victory in September 2006 to upstart Donna Edwards.
He has not learned. Here it is the night before the election and we have the following stories coming from Wynn in the past seven days:
1) He files a complaint with the FEC saying his principal opponent, Donna Edwards, is part of a "vast left wing conspiracy". That term incidentally comes the name of a book written by a right wing reporter for the National Review. Oh and no violation of campaign finance law is cited.
2) He puts out a series of robo calls highlighting Donna Edwards having multiple tax liens on her home, which is true. But he just happens to fail to mention that she had the liens -- as she pointed out at numerous debates -- because she was a single mother trying to raise a young son without health insurance for herself.
3) Now the latest is Wynn has created a flyer that implied that he and Sen. Barack Obama are a team. That they share the same values. If Obama and Wynn share the same values then our country is in deep deep trouble.
4) He wraps himself in the mantle of change candidate, Barack Obama, by inviting himself onto Fox News to debate for the Illinois Senator. He was not selected by the Obama campaign. He did it himself. That is not how you earn the good graces of the campaign you want to help.
I have been involved in politics for almost thirty years. I have seen nasty fights for office. This one takes the cake. In fact there is so much cake being tossed -- the vast majority from him, his supporters and his personal attack dog at many debates has been Dr. Michael Babula -- that the main issue is being missed. Al Wynn has reached his shelf-life as an elected official. His expiration reads September 2006. It is time for him to go. He is beyond the pale as a representative.
I gave my props to him to his winning a debate last week. He was good. But then you have to wonder when the moderator was a member of his "Women for Wynn" team. I wondered why the questions always put Donna on the defensive and made Wynn look good. Is there nothing he won't do to win? I doubt it; and the flyer coming out of PG County is latest exhibit.
Wynn may get more votes tomorrow but he will not be a winner. If he does win he should start Wednesday February 13 looking for a job in the Obama Administration because he burned so many bridges to win this his final election. He has been shameless in his zeal to wynn. I see little chance that he could ever win another election after Tuesday.
I have met Al Wynn. He is quite personable. We talked on Saturday about how he has to care for his elderly mother. The look on his face said it all. He was not a politician then. He was Albert Wynn, the son, caring for an elderly parent something any adult child can relate to.
We will gather in a few hours to elect a Democratic nominee for the 4th District of Maryland. This has been Al Wynn's seat for 16 years. In that time he has developed a win at any cost that there is nothing left to him. I am certain that at one time Congressman Wynn was a decent and honorable man. It may have been when he first ran for State Delegate in 1982. He probably had many ideas of what he wanted to do to make our community a better place. Those days are a distant memory.
Al Wynn has got to go. The best line of the campaign was uttered by another challenger for this seat, Jason Jennings, when he said that Al Wynn "is like a championship prize fighter who has stayed around too long". Jennings is correct. Please vote Al Wynn into an early retirement. There is little left to admire.
Please support Donna Edwards. We need her.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Viewing the Wynn-Edwards GOTV Operations
Yesterday both sides in the Wynn-Edwards race had their weekend rallies. Seeing the campaigns organized on the Saturday before gives you an excellent look at the strength of each campaign.
The Edwards campaign had two bus caravans that when from their respective HQs in MoCo and PG to a central meeting at the New Carrolton Metro. Here is a report from Progressive Democrats of America web site. Since the blogging community would probably not cover the same for Al Wynn, I went to see how his operation was running.
He has a well organized operation -- better than it has been in the past. Bags were picked and volunteers assembled. At the Electrical Workers site in Lanham in the morning, over a hundred people were there. I covered the MoCo afternoon event. Politicker MD did a nice job of covering the who said what and the latest from Wynn's camp on the robo calls about Donna Edwards' tax liens. The best defense of Donna's response was written at FSP by Eric Luedtke.
The Only Poll in the Race
Donna's camp is giddy with the prospect of unseating the eight term incumbent. Her internal poll has her up by 8 points. Wynn's campaign manager dismisses it without elaboration. This means that it is: a) true and she can't say it publicly; b) not true but she does not want to reveal what her side has on seen with daily tracking polls; or c) she is bluffing.
I have a video of Wynn's speech at the Rockville rally at MCEA and once I figure out how to upload onto YouTube then I will embed it here. Wynn talks about his robo calls are "Very encouraging". The unsaid message is -- the Donna Edwards' tax lien robo call is cutting into her lead.
Comparing Field Operations
Wynn has a strong field operation; but I think Donna's stronger. I witnessed Edwards' field operation on Sunday. I see more boots on the ground for Donna. The Wynn campaign will tell you Edwards workers are out-of-towners. Maybe but Wynn's campaign manager and I were on the same successful Chris Van Hollen race of 2002 that relied on out of district folks that were combined with several local activists. Edwards field campaign looks exactly like Van Hollen in 2002. Still a close example -- at least from the MoCo perspective is the Ida Reuben vs. Jamie Raskin race of 2006.
Donna Edwards has the feel of a winning campaign. She has that buzz. The "it" you need to get over the top.
I see strength on Al's campaign but it lacks the same intensity as hers. I have also been on a campaign similar to Wynn's (that is an incumbent who has had to ask his dwindling core supporters to get him over the top another time). There are only so many times you can call on people before they stop coming. I am not saying that is the case with Wynn's field operations. But freshness in a campaign is critical in a close campaign. I don't get that feel with his campaign. And winning campaigns don't release robo calls that attack your opponent personally in the final weekend of the campaign.
Still, two of the biggest names in MoCo Politics were at Wynn's rally in Rockville. Al Wynn has Ike. Doug Duncan, more casual than I have seen him in several post-Executive appearances, was also there. In addition, Sen. Forehand, whose district is outside of CD4, was there. So was his Women for Wynn co-chair, Loretta Knight, who is Clerk of Court. Delegate Reznik, whose district is about half in CD4 and half in CD8, came late from another event.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
WaPo Endorses Edwards; Gazette Goes for Wynn
Earlier this week the Gazette endorsed incumbent Al Wynn. This morning the WaPo has endorsed challenger Donna Edwards.
I wonder how much a newspaper endorsement has nowadays.
Donna Edwards Up By 8
Here is the first poll of this race. Edwards is leading Wynn by 8.
The information comes to us from Matt Stoller at Open Left. Thanks Matt. This is an internal poll (means it is a candidate's own poll). The pollster is Donna's. You don't leak polls unless you are ahead.
Wynn needs to respond.
If the Wynn camp wants to discount this poll they will either discredit this pollster or need to release their own internal poll. This is a game of chicken.
Wynn has some of the worst reelect numbers I have ever seen.
As Matt points out Wynn had a very low reelect number (32%). An incumbent with a reelect number under 50% is not long for office. There has been a whisper campaign for the past few months -- that Wynn's reelect number against a generic Democrat was under 40%. Lake Research says it is 32%. That adds "ex-" to your title "Congressman" 9 times out of 10.
This explains Wynn's last two weeks of ads and robo calls. It would explain Wynn filing the FEC complaint against Edwards last week. It explains the negative ads.
This poll is already old.
The +/- is 5%, which is on the high side. The poll was conducted on Jan 29 and 30. But released Friday. Making the news -- while hot today -- potentially old. It was done pre-Super Tuesday, pre-FEC complaint, pre-negative TV ads. Still look at Edwards' gain from October to today. She gains 18 points and he loses 10 points. That is a major shift in voters.
Huge pack of undecideds remain.
Concerns are the same that Matt Stoller points out -- neither candidate is above 50%. There are 28% undecideds. Making the claim that candidates, Jason Jennings and George Mitchell, have made for months -- no one is thrilled with the two leading candidates. Which would explain why an internal poll such as this was not released prior to GOTV weekend. It would given a huge boost to the other candidates.
Prince George's County is a dead heat.
That's the WOW of this poll. If Wynn does not take PG by comfortable the new Congressman will be a Congresswoman. Even the most ardent Wynn supporter never expected him to carry MoCo, so winning PG is the key to a Wynn win.
Obama and Clinton are huge to this race.
This poll has 400 likely Democratic voters, which is the normal universe. The universe has changed. Most people figured our Presidential primary would be over on Super Tuesday.
Having a contested Presidential primary is the worst case scenario for Wynn. You have a slew of new voters that may not normally vote in this race showing up on election day. If they are Obama voters they are not his natural voters, even though he beat Edwards to the punch on endorsing the favorite son of PG, Obama.
I witnessed first hand on Monday at the NAACP Debate the impact of a contested Presidential primary. This was in the heart of PG. Wynn country. The overflow crowd was both pro-Obama and pro-Edwards. The Big Mo is on the side of the challenger.
So if you are Wynn you need to suppress voting (legally) and pray that Jack Johnson's machine deliver you a ton of votes.
Will WaPo release a poll as part of its Sunday's news?
I have wondered out loud where is the WaPo on this covering this race. No polls. My roommate got a call from a pollster on Tuesday. If the WaPo is polling for Obama and Clinton it should not be that hard to ask a few questions of those people who reside in CD4. It would be an easy two for one the nation's political newspaper. Sunday would be the perfect day to release.
The Gazette Drops The Ball -- Again
Here is the local paper of the DC Suburbs and there are two key races in Maryland for Congressional seats. One is nearby -- the 4th District, covering PG and MoCo; the other is far away -- the 1st District, covering the Eastern Shore and portions northeast of Baltimore.Guess which race is the lead for Gazette.
The headline caught my eye: Turnout is the key to congressional races. I thought hum, the Gazette is going to discuss the turnout in the contested Wynn-Edwards race. Great. I would love to hear what some of the experts have to say about turnout now that we have a contested Democratic Presidential primary. Will it hurt Wynn or help him. What does this do for the challengers.
Boy was I wrong.
We get four paragraphs of Republican Mitt Romney dropping out. The impact this has on the 1st Congressional District. You know that Eastern Shore race.
Where was the editor on this one? Must be in OC working on his summer place.
Did they interview a political expert? Sure some prof down in Salisbury. What the local phone lines don't work? Did this expert add anything to the story. Nothing that was worth quoting.
Did they talk about the most important Democratic primary for Congress? Oh yeah, at the end of this story we have Wynn and Edwards trade barbs in final days. Maybe someone should give them a map of their territory or a clue.
The Gazette sure knows how to stick their neck out on a key local race. Maybe the staff was busy calling car dealers for another print ad because they sure weren't talking to someone who could help them get to the bottom of the story. Great headline; lousy story.
I write for this blog in my spare time. I would not waste my time writing about turnout in a district three hours away when you have the best story in the country in the middle of your circulation. But the Gazette paid someone to write that crap. No wonder circulation is down.
Friday, February 08, 2008
Latest Wynn-Edwards News
We are into GOTV (Get Out The Vote) weekend and here is some of the latest news from the leading candidates.
This is a robo call sent out on behind of Congressman Wynn. It comes from Open Left's Matt Stoller, who is a supporter of challenger Donna Edwards. Still the robo call undercuts Wynn's argument that he is running a positive campaign.
Baltimore Sun is running an article from UMBC Professor Schaller that dovetails with Stoller's comments. The end of Schaller's comments he calls for the voting Wynn out of office.
From the WaPo blog, Sen. Mikulski is staying out of the race citing her focus on Hillary.
Also from the WaPo, Donna Edwards has endorsed Obama. Wynn endorsed Obama back in mid-January. This confirms that Obama is solidly ahead of Clinton in the DC burbs. Expect both sides to hand out palm cards linking their candidate with Obama.
Of course MPW's own Adam Pagnucco commented on the local elected officials who are endorsing Wynn. It is an impressive list. This also originated in the WaPo blog. Among the comments on their site was an interesting point made by someone known as "lefty". He/she, based on previous comments, is pro-Donna. So take that as you may but the point made was that WaPo reporter, Roz Helderman, headlines the blog piece with a majority of the electeds were there for Wynn. Not true. Wynn has an impressive list of endorsements but it is still not a majority of either delegation.
This race is so close that whomever gets out the GOTV wins. Not that's obvious but so many races are not close coming into GOTV weekend. This one is.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
Donna Edwards' Closing Statement from the NAACP Debate
This is Donna Edwards' closing statement from NAACP Debate at the PGCC Debate on Monday. The other candidates are seated from left to right are: Jason Jennings, Al Wynn, Robert Broadus (Republican) is blocked by Edwards and to the far right is George McDermott.
Thanks to Open Left for providing the video footage. Open Left's Matt Stoller has been covering this race. Good job Matt. Here is his report on the event.
Al Wynn's Closing Statement from the NAACP Debate
This was Congressman Al Wynn's closing statement on the NAACP Debate at PGCC on Monday night. Candidates Michael Babula and Jason Jennings are seated in front of him.
Thanks to Open Left for providing this video. Open Left's Matt Stoller has been covering this race. Thanks Matt. Here is a picture of Matt talking with Congressman Wynn prior to the debate. Check out Matt's blog posting here. 
MoCo/PG State Legislators for Wynn
Maryland Moment's Rosalind Helderman covered a rally in Annapolis for District 4 Congressman Albert Wynn. I encourage everyone to read her piece as it contains details of the remarks made by Senators Mike Miller, Ulysses Currie and Rob Garagiola, all of whom have endorsed Wynn. As part of that coverage, Helderman provided a list of the Montgomery and Prince George's County state legislators who turned out at that rally and we reproduce it here.
Montgomery County State Legislators for Wynn
District 14: Senator Rona Kramer, Delegate Karen Montgomery
District 15: Entire Delegation
District 17: Senator Jennie Forehand
District 19: Senator Mike Lenett, Delegate Ben Kramer
District 39: Entire Delegation
Note: Districts 16 and 17 do not overlap with CD4. District 18 only shares two precincts with CD4.
Prince George's County State Legislators for Wynn
District 21: Senator James Rosapepe, Delegates Ben Barnes and Barbara Frush
District 22: Delegates Anne Healey and Justin Ross
District 23: Delegate Marvin Holmes (23B)
District 24: Senator Nathaniel Exum, Delegate Michael Vaughn
District 25: Senator Ulysses Currie, Delegates Melony Griffith and Dereck Davis
District 26: Senator C. Anthony Muse, Delegate Jay Walker
District 47: Delegate Victor Ramirez
In addition, Helderman noted attendance at the rally by Prince George's County Council Member Will Campos, Former District 39 Senator P.J. Hogan and Betty Weller from the state teachers union, which endorsed Wynn.
Edwards responded by announcing endorsements from Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez (D18), Delegate Joseline Pena-Melnyk (D21) and Edmonston Mayor Adam Ortiz. But this is far from a complete list of her elected supporters.
Notably absent from the Wynn camp are Delegates Herman Taylor (D14, who briefly considered challenging him), Kumar Barve (D17, the House Majority Leader), Luiz Simmons (D17), Senator Paul Pinsky (D22, a staffer of MCEA) and everyone from District 20 (Silver Spring-Takoma Park).
Congressman Wynn is known for his long memory. So are MoCo progressives. That's what makes the above list so interesting.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Is A Change Gonna Come?
Boy what a difference a few days make. Last Saturday I wrote how Al Wynn, with an assist from Dr. Michael Babula, won the debate at People's Community Baptist in Silver Spring. It was his day. Everything was different last night. Just like the classic Sam Cooke song, the NAACP Debate at PGCC in Largo could be the clearest signal that a new order may be coming to the 4th Congressional District.
Rennie Forum inside the Largo Student Center was a full house where the only undecideds were the reporters and custodians. They waited patiently through 
the Congressional 8th District (Van Hollen seat) and 5th District (Hoyer seat) milling in the lobby trading the latest rumors and stories before the main event of the evening the 4th District debate. By the time the 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans took the stage it was late and the crowd was eager to cheer their candidate on. That's not the news. The news is not the debate itself. All sides will point to a phrase or line that their candidate spoke that proves to all the wisdom of the speaker.
This was the Super Bowl of debates for the 4th District. I have been to four of them. This was the largest and most vocal debate. The audience wanted to take center stage. Sometimes they did. But here we are a week out and you get a gauge of who can organize; whose volunteers are pumped. Which side is gasping to make the finish line.
I collected some wonderful lines from last night debate. All candidates have hit their stride in their message and can connect with the audience. But if I wrote that you will be missing what really is going on. You need to look at the unobtrusive measures. Look at see what is going on around the room.
A sure sign of a campaign's strength is the number of supporters who will come out for you and listen to a debate. Sitting through a debate when you have already decided who you like calls for a hard core supporter. They are committed activists. They are people who will door knock, make phone calls, talk to their neighbors, contribute and most importantly vote. Michael Babula looked to be there alone. Although he did receive several hearty back slaps from a cadre of Wynn supporters afterwards as Dr. Mike again attacked not the incumbent but his main rival, Edwards. George McDermott had a single supporter. Jason Jennings had his mom, wife, members of his church, about ten in total. George Mitchell's supporters were easy to find in their bright yellow t-shirts. His wife and several other family members were there too. His supporters were almost two dozen. Al Wynn had a slightly more than Mitchell, call it around 30. They were either in his light blue t-shirts or wearing his lapel sticker over their suits. 
Michael Steele was among those supporting the Congressman. Donna Edwards support was in the first row to the top row. It was total; it was complete. Her supporters outnumbered, say it was 100, the combined total of the five Democrats and the three Republicans in this joint debate. They were in t-shirts or wearing her button. Edwards supporters cheered as if it was the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl and their team just went ahead. Has Al Wynn become the Patriots to Donna Edwards' Giants? Will the Congressman's unblemished political winning streak of twenty-six years through eleven elections remain intact for one more race?
Who is ahead in this race? 
We don't know. It is a parlor game. There are no newspaper polls. Candidates Jennings and Babula (pictured to the left) along with Mitchell and McDermott don't have the money for a scientific statistically poll. Leaving the two major candidates with polls that are not being released. Candidates don't release the poll numbers if they want to avoid tipping their hand. A candidate that releases a poll is then obligated to have the pollster talk about the entire poll. So if you don't want to show your hand you don't release your internal poll. So how do you tell? You use those unobtrusive measures.
You look for signs of movement. People who are coming out to events. Look at a Sen. Obama rally. Does he not get the biggest crowds? Are people fired up about his campaign? You bet. The audience was pro-Obama and they cheered not for the candidate who was supporting Obama -- Al Wynn. They cheered most often and strongest for Donna Edwards, who remains uncommitted.
You look to see what their campaign ads look like. If you are ahead you run Morning in America ads as Reagan did in 1984. If you are behind you attack your opponent. What was the lasting impression of the debate? As the debate ended and the crowd was leaving on the TV set in the lobby was the latest Al Wynn ad running. It shows (see picture below) Donna Edwards as a puppet being controlled by two white operators. This was not an ad by a 527. It was an ad from his own campaign. He is down in the polls. He needs to vilify his main opponent, Donna Edwards, to win.
Maybe it was best said by Jason Jennings who thought Congressman Wynn was "like a prize fighter who is past his prime". Ads and debates don't win races. Getting votes do. But if this unobtrusive measures hold then we will have an upset to rival Sunday's Super Bowl.It's been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will
(A Change Gonna Come, Sam Cooke)
Monday, February 04, 2008
Fly on the Wall for a joint Wynn-Edwards Interview
Political Pulse Moderator, Charles Duffy, Congressman Al Wynn, Donna EdwardsWe regularly feature Cable Channel 16 Political Pulse's upcoming interviews. This morning was the taping of a joint interview of the two main candidates for the 4th Congressional District:Al Wynn (campaign site) and Donna Edwards. I was a fly on the wall listening off camera.
Both sides should be happy with their candidate's performance. This 30 minute show covered most of the key issues. Along with the recent NOW program on PBS entitled Divided Democrats, this interview is the best use of streaming video to educate the voters. I encourage you to watch.
When Can I See It??
Political Pulse, hosted by Charles Duffy, is on every Thursday night at 9 on Montgomery County Cable Channel 16. There will be a special showing tomorrow night (Super Tuesday at 9:30 pm).
More importantly for those of you who don't have cable and don't want to set the VCR or TiVo there is an even better way to watch it. The WaPo, which I have criticized for its minimal coverage of this race, will have it up on their site as a streaming video. Look for it in the next few days. When I see it there I will alert you.
About Political Pulse
Charles Duffy covers many of the same issues we do here at MPW. If you have cable, I don't.It was either high speed internet or cable for my budget. This is one of the best places to get a solid news without the frills. He is always prepared. He is fair and balanced. Watch it.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
A Chicken In Every Pot
It's that time of the year. T minus 10 days to primary day where attacks pick up their intensity. Last night's Debate at People's Community Baptist Church for the candidates for the Fourth District was the most charged of the three I attended. Fortunately for the incumbent most of the charges were focused on his principal rival.
The blogosphere has not been kind to Incumbent Al Wynn. So this may be the first words to highlight his positives. 
This was his night. His skills as a debater came through in spades. The former coach of the Howard University Debate team was on. He had position all night (being the first one to speak in opening and the last one to speak during closing) using both to great effect. The questions favored him. Others made charges against his principle rival, Donna Edwards, sparing him the trouble. No one except her called on him to explain some of his votes. It was the perfect storm of a debate for the incumbent. Edwards had to feel as if it was four against one, with the genial George McDermott refraining from the testosterone festival.
Wynn's Perfect Storm
In his opening statement Wynn took time to honor Marilyn Praisner's work getting all to stop what they were doing to give her a moment of silence. Classy move. He had held his own during the Q&A. None of the questions highlighted his vulnerabilities. He also got a major assist from Dr. Michael Babula, who laid into his principle challenger Donna Edwards early. Jason Jennings and George Mitchell (note link is broken) bunched Wynn and Edwards together on multiple occasions blurring the lines. Al Wynn completed the night by having the final word in closing statement. Harking back "to the old days where politicians promised a chicken in every pot" to voters, Wynn compared what he has done in office to the lack of accomplishments by his opponents.
"She disgusts me"
The first question was on campaign finance and special interest money. Babula, pictured to the lower left, speaking after Edwards and before Wynn went after the former with a vengeance. 
Sounding as if he was reading from the recently filed Wynn complaint against Edwards centered on soft money and 527s, Babula, a former Republican candidate in his native New Jersey, highlighted perceived connections between 527s and her campaign ending with the subhead quote above.
Other Observations
Mitchell, pictured to the right, sounding as if he was the Pastor of this powerful
Baptist church, charged you can't continue to elect the same people and expect different results. He called Wynn and Edwards "two peas in a pod". Babula piggybacked on Mitchell and called Edwards "a wolf in sheep's clothing" and Wynn "a wolf dressed up as a grandmother".
Why the Increase in Charges?
These increases in charges are common and expected. The further down you are in the race the greater the intensity. The closer to the election the greater intensity. This is a race where no one knows who is ahead. We have a crowded six person race. No public polls to digest. No leaked candidates polls. So this is moving time. You either move up or you move out. The uncertainty of the race has all but the main players fighting for their place in the sun.
This is the second debate inside a week where Edwards served as the pinata 
for her male opponents. There were numerous times a finger was pointed and charges directed at her as if she was the eight term incumbent. When people talked of change it was as if she was the one blocking change. Her attempts at connecting with the voters was lost in a sea of "they are both the same".
Debates, or forums as we like to call these things in the 21st century, are just a small part of an overall campaign. More people will read these words than were in attendance. So hopefully, my recollections match others. All sides will spin to highlight their candidate. It will be tough for Edwards to "win" another debate if the attacks continue. Wynn used his oratory skills to great effect. He defended his positions without being defensive. It was the best I had seen him in several debates over two election cycles.
What's Next
The candidates have another debate at PG Community College on Monday evening. I would expect more of the same. Also expect to see and hear more interviews on cable and radio in the coming week.
General Observations After Three Debates
Having sat through three debates and interviews with all candidates but Wynn (still waiting Congressman) here is a thumbnail sketch of the candidates, so far.
George McDermott (pictured to the left), the longest of long shots, continues to bark at a corrupt judicial system and wants you "to throw the bums out of office". He may not win but he is a decent and honest man who is determined to speak out against the faults of our judicial system as he sees it.
Jason Jennings (pictured to the right), who has not mastered the sound bite, has a theme of 'us, working folks vs. them, the rich'. He is the only candidate who was educated in local schools from kindergarten to graduate school. Jennings wants to be a different legislator than you have seen previously. He wants to not just change the representation in this district but he wants to change the way Congress operates completely.
George Mitchell wants you to know that he will speak out for the children. Not that others won't but he will be the first and the most vocal. His facts sometimes are off (e.g., when he mentions the district is 85% PG and almost 20% MoCo meaning the district equals 105% or he cites campaign contribution percentages for his opponents that don't match the public record) but Mitchell gives a good speech. You can tell he has not missed too many Sunday sermons. His cadence is good.
Mike Babula, the newest of the newcomers, wants you to know that without a serious change in our fiscal & monetary policy we face an economic future that rivals Independence Day. He may be right; but it is not the type of message that inspires. He also has some of the more libertarian views on drug control, education, health care, gun control, and foreign policy, though he will reject the use of that label. Somewhere the far right meets the far left and that seems to be where he resides.
Donna Edwards wants you to know that she has been where many have been -- a single parent, without health insurance, trying to raise a son -- all while serving as a public interest advocate. Outside of the Congressman, she is only person who can point to several accomplishments for the public good.
Al Wynn wants you know that he is not about promises but about results. His results speak for themselves though others may disagree. He claims "transparency" on campaign finance. He wants both universal education and universal health care. He sounds as if he got the message in 2006 and is willing to become a more vocal advocate for the district.
All candidates claim to be the latest agent of change in the year of change.
We are in a for wild 10 days sprint to the election. It is All in The Family now.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Wynn Files a Complaint Against Edwards
Here is the latest flying across the internet about Wynn's charge against Edwards. He filed a 34 point complaint with the FEC claiming that Donna Edwards was in violation of campaign finance laws. I don't claim to know all aspects of campaign finance. But I am working on finding out more. In the meantime, here is a summary of the stories making the rounds.
The WaPo article seems to just get quotes and reacts and doesn't really explain the issue. It is complicated. But it is a disappointing piece if you want to know the story. A swing and miss from our local paper.
The Baltimore Sun did a story as well. They had the Campaign Legal Center, a non-profit that focuses on campaign finance, review the compliant. CLC dismisses the compliant.
WaPo's corporate cousin, the Gazette, also wrote about it. I can't tell where the Post ends and this one begins. Must have lifted the same key points. Strike two for Team Graham.
The DC Examiner also weighs in. It too is a simple "he said, she said" story that does nothing to explain a complicated issue. So the Post and Gazette are off the hook, sort of.
Our friends at Free State Politics (FSP), who make clear that they are supporters of Donna, trumpet the Sun article and trash the WaPo one. Author Isaac Smith refutes the charges against Donna.
Politicker MD, one of the newer blogs in the state, does a nice job of giving Wynn's side of the story. This helpful for those of us not versed in campaign finance law. In fact, I think they took the time that the Post and Gazette could have but didn't.
Finally, FSP refers back to a MyDirectDemocracy piece, which is written by Matt Stoller immediately after the 2006 primary. Matt is now with Open Left. To say Matt is a strong supporter of Donna would be an understatement. Here is Matt's post from today.
I am working on digging into it myself but until I hear from the principles I will refrain from adding anymore.
What is unusual about the story is the timing of it. We are about to get the Jan 30 FEC reports. Not certain if the January reports will be released prior to the primary.
Last week I posted that the WaPo was not covering the race. With today's news I may have to back up a bit. But considering how poorly they are covering this race, I won't back up too much.
Monday, January 28, 2008
Come Back Home
The best thing I can do is give back your love
Let you go away feelin' free as a dove
If you find you're a long ways from home
And somebody's doing you wrong
Just call on me baby
And come back home
Call Me, Al Green, 1973
Some debates remind me of a food fight, some a Texas Hold 'em poker tournament and still others make me feel the love. This debate should have been dubbed: I'm a Long Ways From Home (No More Foreign Wars) Debate. That should not be surprising as it was put on a coalition of peace activists. It got me thinking of the classic Al Green song "Call Me" (1973 Hi Records). Green sings of finding love closer to home. The candidates were singing the same hymnbook as well, although not always the same song.
That is not to say that there were not sparks flying at the Stella Warner Building (MoCo Council Building). There were some. But food fights won't win votes most places, especially among peaceniks.
This forum was sponsored by Peace Action Montgomery County and five other groups. The topic was Congress' role in US Foreign Policy. It included all candidates for Congress in District 4 and District 8 regardless of party, giving us 11 candidates (1 Green Party, 3 Republicans & 7 Democrats). Terry Kester of WPFW 89.3 FM did his best to moderate such an unwieldy format.
The only other non-Democrat was Gordon Clark (Web site under construction). In fact, Mr. Clark is not even on the ballot for the Greens in CD8. The previous candidate must have stepped down. Clark scored some points with his critique on Global Warming.
Since this is a Democratic politics blog and it is there that I will return.
Vollmer Spars With Van Hollen
Ok it was MoCo styled sparring. Nothing major. Chris Van Hollen's (campaign site) opening statement went after the Bush Administration for its "policy of slogans: 'Bring It On', 'You Are Either With Us or Against Us'" and for considering "diplomacy a dirty word". Immediately
challenger Deborah Vollmer (see picture on the right) claimed his words and actions did not match calling them "very mixed". She even generated a laugh from the audience when she pointed out that threaten incumbent Al Wynn (campaign site) voted against the September 2008 Omnibus Spending bill with $190 billion for the war while Rep. Van Hollen voted for it. That is the basis for her campaign and she delivered a solid shot at him. But is was neither a knockout nor was she able to hit a combination either. Chris was eager to respond but was unable to because others had to give their opening statements. Ok no more fighting terms during a peace forum.The rest of the District 8 portion of the debate was mild. Van Hollen and Vollmer agreed more often than they differed. Dr. Lih Young (2006 Senate candidate site) was also there. It was my first time seeing her. She described herself as a "perennial candidate since 1994". While that may not have been her best choice of words it does fit. She has run 11 times in the past 14 years. I couldn't remember one thing that she said that was noteworthy. Sorry.
Un Wynn able?
Al Wynn was the only Democratic candidate to fail to attend, along with six Republicans most of whom I don't recognize. According to organizer Fran Pollner, Wynn Congressional office never responded to the initial invitation as well as follow up requests. Once the date was set Wynn's office said he had an 'unalterable schedule'. According to his web site, he was at the same Women's Legislative Briefing that Rep. Van Hollen attended.
This was clearly not Wynn's best constituency. Having to highlight the changes in his votes would have put him on the defensive. So it does make sense as a campaign operative. However based on the audience response to Deborah Vollmer's opening statement, he probably could have faired better than he thought.
Wynn, Edwards and the Dynamic of the Underdogs
Almost all of the attention is on the top two candidates, Donna Edwards and incumbent Al Wynn. Rightfully so. Still there are four other candidates who are running. They are: Dr. Michael Babula, Jason Jennings, George Mitchell and George McDermott. Two points were of interest. No candidate was in favor in the war. All wanted us to come home. Second, was how often I heard the others take a shot at Donna Edwards and almost leave the incumbent untouched. It wasn't every time and it wasn't by all but it was a consistent pattern. I recognize that as an underdog you need to highlight differences with those ahead of you. But it sure did seem as though Edwards took more shots than the absent Wynn. The usual response was something along the line of "they are cut from the same piece of cloth". True or not on this charge, the consistency of the refrain had a talking points smell to it.
To be fair, I will explore the positions of the CD4 Democratic candidates during my upcoming interviews with them. But for now I was struck by this general theme of these four. In the meantime, I think these two sites (WAMU's Kojo Nnamdi Show and the Gazette) have nice voter guides on all 6 Democratic candidates in CD4. Take a look and form your own opinion.
Final ThoughtsThe only people who seemed to be undecided in the room were the news reporters and the organizers. Disclosure: I live in CD8 and I support Chris Van Hollen.
The lack of undecideds is normal for debates. The news coverage by the MSM was again weak. I sat next to the Sentinel reporter. There was another reporter who could have been the Gazette but it wasn't the WaPo. I think the WaPo is failing in their coverage of the race in CD4.
You want the shortest version of the debate?
There was more love than spin. A universal request to come back home from Iraq. Now if only we can get Al Green at one of these things. If he does call me.
Friday, January 25, 2008
Congressional District 4 and 8 Forum in Rockville on Sunday
This comes from Mike Hersh, coordinator for Montgomery County Progressive Alliance:
Don't miss the Montgomery County Congressional Candidates Forum on foreign policy this Sunday!
Topic: The Role of Congress in U.S. Foreign Policy: Iraq, Iran, and National Security
Sponsored by: Progressive Democrats of America (PDA), Democracy For America (DFA), and Montgomery County Progressive Alliance (MCPA)
Who: Democratic Candidates for Congress from the 4th and 8th Congressional District
When: Sunday, January 27, 2 – 4 p.m
Where: County Council Office Building, 3rd-floor hearing room, 100 Maryland Ave., Rockville. From Rockville Metro Station (red line) 1 block N on Maryland Ave.
WAMU Covers the 4th District
A hat tip over at FSP to Isaac Smith for posting the announcement of the radio debate between to the two principle contenders in this race. It will be live at noon on Friday.
Now when will WaPo begin their coverage?
Postscript: Here is the link to the WAMU site. To hear the radio click on the show over on the right. It starts around 19:50 and ends at 45:00.
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Post Punks Pols & Us
The Washington Post (WaPo) is the preeminent political newspaper in the county. WaPo sends out teams of reporters to cover the smallest detail of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. But they give a rats ass about local races. WaPo has punked us.
Right here under their nose they have the seminal race for the heart and soul of the Democratic Party. Eight term Congressman Albert Wynn represents the establishment wing of the Democrats; Donna Edwards is running from his left and with bloggers and activists by her side. There are another four candidates, perhaps smelling blood in the water, also vying for the seat. They had the closest race in the country just 16 months ago. So where is the coverage? Where are the heavyweight reporters and above the fold coverage?
So the Post, I have one question: "What is it good for?" Absolutely nothing.
In 2002, WaPo had three above the fold pieces on the Van Hollen, Marc Shriver and Ira Sharpio race before the primary. They had polls on the race. Their corporate cousin, the Gazette, had at two polls leading up to the primary.
Politicians love polls. Readers of political publications love polls. WaPo puts polls in any race of note. So one question: Have you seen a poll on the biggest Congressional primary in the country, that being the 4th Congressional District of Maryland?
WaPo what is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Say it again, y'all.
How come WaPo gave us three major pieces on Congressional District 8 in 2002 and all we get in this election season is a bunch of Metro pieces.
The Post should be ashamed of its coverage of Fourth District. No polls. Nothing more than the short bios. One reporter coverage. Heck, even NOW took 20 minutes to cover the race on Friday. And they wonder why readership is down.
By not covering the race, WaPo tells us a lot of what it thinks of the race -- and us. So where is the poll coverage of the pols.
WaPo, what is it good for? Absolutely nothing. Listen to me.
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Hold That Mfume Endorsement of Donna
Seems the story of former Senate candidate Kweisi Mfume endorsing Donna Edwards was just a bit too premature. Look at this story from the DC Examiner.
