The Pepco Work Group appointed by County Executive Ike Leggett is conducting an online survey in order to receive the broadest possible range of feedback about their experiences with the electric utility company.
The survey is designed to obtain information on how the public views Pepco's service, the extent to which customers have experienced outages, the economic impact of those outages and some insight as to what additional costs customers would be willing to incur in exchange for improved service.
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/PEPCORESIDENTIAL
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label polls. Show all posts
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
Ike's Poll, Our Poll on Pepco
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Post Poll Shows Marriage Leads in MD, O'Malley
Read the story here. Topline numbers after the jump.
Marriage leads by 51-44. Gov. Martin O'Malley's numbers also look good with 58 percent approving and 30 disapproving of his job as governor--his highest ratings since winning election in 2006.
In contrast, 56 percent favor the death penalty while 36 percent oppose it, though 60 percent say life without parole is an acceptable option while 33 percent do not. On gun control, 45 percent want stricter laws, 24 percent want less strict laws, and 26 percent favor no change.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Thursday, November 04, 2010
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Our Forecast: Ehrlich vs. O’Malley
Who’s going to win the Maryland Governor’s race today? We know the answer, so read on to find out!
OK, we don’t know the answer, but we are going to take our best shot at predicting the outcome. And we will not do it using party talking points, ideology, impassioned appeals or all that other pap. We will rely on what truly matters on Election Day: mathematics.
Our projections are derived from three sets of estimates:
1. Registration by party
2. Turnout by party
3. Voting intention by party
Of these three, only registration is known. Here is the number of voters by party who are eligible to vote in today’s general election.
Registration alone will not determine the election. Here are the turnout rates by party for the last three gubernatorial general elections, as well as a forecast by Gonzales Research in its latest poll.
Democrats and Republicans turned out at about the same rate in 1998. Since then, Republicans have had a four-point edge. Independents and members of other parties are much less likely to vote. Gonzales estimates that 2010 will be a very different year for turnout and we will discuss that later.
Now here is Bob Ehrlich’s support by party in four different polls.
1. A Survey USA poll taken in November 2002 48 hours before the election. This shows Ehrlich’s support by party in the year that he won.
2. A CNN exit poll taken in November 2006. This shows Ehrlich’s support by party in the year that he lost.
3. The average levels of Ehrlich’s support by party from three October 2010 polls by Gonzales, the Baltimore Sun and the Washington Post.
4. Ehrlich’s support by party from a July 2010 poll by Magellan. This poll, which showed Ehrlich up three points on O’Malley, was Ehrlich’s best poll of the cycle.
Every poll had undecideds except the CNN exit poll. We allocated undecided voters with their party and split independents down the middle so as not to understate Ehrlich’s support.
Taken together, these sets of numbers can be used to construct projections for the race. By plugging in different sets of assumptions about turnout or party voting behavior, we can estimate a range of outcomes for both Ehrlich and O’Malley. We assembled three models.
General Election Model One
In our first model, we assume that turnout will be the same as in 2002 (which was the year Ehrlich won) and that party members will vote in accordance with the average of the three October 2010 polls. The outcome under these assumptions is an 18.4 point blowout for O’Malley.
Now, this is not going to happen. The primary reason is Democratic turnout. The number of registered Democrats eligible to vote in the general election has gone from 1.557 million in 2002 to 1.957 million today. Many of the new Democrats registered during the run-up to President Obama’s election. It is unreasonable to expect all of them to turn out at the same rate as the older, long-term Democrats. Furthermore, Gallup is forecasting heavy turnout nationwide for the GOP. No pollster expects that Republicans will have a four-point turnout edge this year. It’s far too narrow for today’s wave election.
General Election Model Two
In our second model, we are using Gonzales’s turnout forecast – 70% for Republicans, 55% for Democrats and 40% for others – along with the October poll party voting assumptions. Gonzales’s forecast provides for an unprecedented GOP edge in Maryland, but given what happened in the primaries, it is probably justified. Primary election day turnout for Maryland Democrats was 37% in 2002, 33% in 2006 and 25% this year. Primary election day turnout for Maryland Republicans was 30% in 2002, 25% in 2006 and 29% in 2010. That’s a HUGE dropoff for Democrats that has party leaders concerned. The outcome under these assumptions is a 13.2 point win for O’Malley.
O’Malley still wins big because Ehrlich’s support among Democrats is so low. As we showed yesterday, the four most recent polls showed Ehrlich getting just 7-19% of Democrats – far less than the 29% he scored right before the 2002 election. But what if critics of these polls like Blair Lee are right? What if survey problems are underestimating Ehrlich’s appeal to Democrats?
General Election Model Three
The best poll for Ehrlich in the entire cycle was Magellan’s July 2010 survey, which showed him getting 25% of Democrats and winning by three. Magellan works primarily for Republicans, so their estimates may be the best that Ehrlich will ever get. Also, this poll was taken before most of O’Malley’s attack ads hit. In our third model, we use Gonzales’s turnout forecast and Magellan’s party voting estimates. Under these assumptions, O’Malley wins by 1.8 points.
This illustrates Ehrlich’s fundamental problem: even under the most favorable turnout and party voting assumptions, he loses. He is not matching the appeal he had to Democrats in 2002 and the GOP is not large enough to carry him to victory.
So what will be the margin? Model One is totally unrealistic. Model Two is too lenient to the Democrats. Model Three is too lenient to the Republicans. So let’s split the difference between Models Two and Three.
O’Malley by 7.5.
Monday, November 01, 2010
How Many Democrats Will Vote for Ehrlich?
Tomorrow’s gubernatorial contest between Bob Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley will depend on two things: turnout and the percentage of Democrats voting for Ehrlich. We’ll address turnout in tomorrow’s election forecast. Today, we’ll focus on Ehrlich Democrats.
Bob Ehrlich, and any statewide candidate, needs to have Democratic votes to win. That’s because of the Democrats’ immense edge in voter registration. Democrats account for 56.4% of all voters eligible to vote in the general election, a percentage that has changed little in the last decade. Republicans account for 26.7% of all voters eligible to vote in the general election, down from 30.1% in May 2004.
How many Democrats are willing to vote for Ehrlich? Let’s look at the history of polling in the three gubernatorial races in which Ehrlich has participated. Not all polls release cross-tabulations, and many of the older ones are no longer online, but this is our best shot at a roundup.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2002 Cycle
Gonzales, September 2001: 11%
Gonzales/Arscott, January 2002: 16%
Gonzales, July 2002: 18%
Gonzales, August 2002: 21%
Gonzales, September 2002: 24%
Gonzales, October 2002: 25%
Survey USA, November 2002: 29%
Ehrlich, who was then a Baltimore County Congressman, started this race with less name recognition than Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. But as the election season went on, his poll numbers went up – driven largely by steady gains among Democrats. The last Survey USA result, taken 48 hours before the election, reflects the current conventional wisdom that Ehrlich can win with 30% support among Democrats. Ehrlich defeated Townsend by 3.9 points.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2006 Cycle
Gonzales, April 2006: 16%
Survey USA, September 2006: 16%
Survey USA, October 2006: 16%
Survey USA, November 2006: 18%
CNN Exit Poll, November 2006: 15%
Ehrlich stayed in the mid-teens among Democrats for most of the election season. Given that performance, he was unable to close the gap against Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley even with decent job approval ratings. O’Malley defeated Ehrlich by 6.5 points.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2010 Cycle
Gonzales, January 2010: 16%
Magellan, July 2010: 25%
Public Policy Polling, July 2010: 21%
Gonzales, July 2010: 19%
Washington Post, September 2010: 10%
Gonzales, October 2010: 17%
Baltimore Sun, October 2010: 17%
Washington Post, October 2010: 7%
Two polls in July showed Ehrlich breaking 20% among Democrats. The Public Policy Polling survey showed Ehrlich trailing O’Malley by three points and claiming 21% support among Democrats. The Magellan poll showed him with a three-point edge over O’Malley and 25% support among Democrats. (It’s worth noting that Magellan works primarily for Republicans.) Since then, five polls have shown Ehrlich’s Democratic support varying between 7% and 19%. That’s in the neighborhood of his losing reelection campaign in 2006.
But 2010 is a wave year for the GOP. Can Ehrlich make it up in Republican turnout? We’ll find out tomorrow.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
On the Last Gonzales Poll
Gonzales Research just released their last poll on the Governor’s race prior to the election. The poll, which interviewed 816 likely voters and found a 47%-42% edge for Martin O’Malley, is notable for several reasons.
1. The poll is the fourth one in a row, and the seventh of the last eight, showing a lead for O’Malley. The last time Bob Ehrlich had a lead in a non-candidate-financed poll was on July 8 (when Rasmussen found him up by one point). Here’s the poll chart and list from Real Clear Politics. 
2. Undecided likely voters are making up their minds. O’Malley has a five-point lead in this poll. Just 6% of likely voters are undecided, down from 13% in January. Ehrlich would have to get nearly all of them to win.
3. An October 2002 poll by Gonzales found Ehrlich getting support from 25% of Democrats. Ehrlich, of course, won the following month. In today’s poll, Gonzales found Ehrlich getting support from 17% of Democrats. In their words, “17% among Democrats for Ehrlich on Election Day won’t do it.”
4. Ehrlich is not running up large enough totals in the Baltimore suburbs, part of which he used to represent in Congress, to counter O’Malley’s edge in Baltimore, MoCo and Prince George’s. Consider these regional comparisons of Ehrlich’s margin between the October 2002 poll and the new poll.
5. The Gonzales poll’s model for general election turnout is extremely favorable to the GOP. Relative to 2002 – the year of Ehrlich’s victory – they estimate that Democratic turnout will be down sharply and Republican turnout will be up. In 2002, Republicans beat Democrats on turnout rates by 67.4-62.9%. In 2010, Gonzales believes that Republicans will blow out Democrats on turnout by 70.0-55.0%. And still, they find O’Malley with a five point lead.
This is rather bad news for the GOP.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Is O'Malley Starting to Pull Away from Ehrlich?
Here's a chart of poll averages from Real Clear Politics.
And here is the list of poll results on which they are relying.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Saturday, October 02, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Saturday, September 18, 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
MSM Falls for Poll by Former O'Malley Staffers (Updated)
Both the Post and the Sun ran the results of a poll commissioned by Center Maryland showing Governor Martin O’Malley leading former Governor Bob Ehrlich by six points. But what neither newspaper reported is that Center Maryland is a PR site founded and run by former O’Malley staffers.
In January, we tracked $54,802 in political contributions made by the founders, with $21,312 going to O’Malley and 92% of the money headed to Democrats. Since then, Center Maryland co-founder Martin Knott has given $500 to Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown (6/4/10) and $5,500 to O’Malley in three contributions (an apparent violation of campaign finance law that limits individual donations to $4,000 per candidate); co-founder Howard Libit has given $1,333.33 to O’Malley (in two contributions on 6/18/10 and 8/10/10); and co-founder Tom Loveland has given $500 to O’Malley (8/7/10). None of them gave money to Ehrlich this year. And all of these contributions were made while they were supposedly running a “news site” that reported “straight down the middle.”
This poll is an outlier as almost all the others find O’Malley and Ehrlich neck-and-neck. Given that fact and the above connections, the Post and the Sun should have disclosed the background of those who commissioned it to their readers.
Update: The Post picked up on this almost five hours after this blog post but did not credit us for our research.
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