What Do a Texas Hold 'Em Tournament and a Presidential Forum Have In Common?

They are common to me because I immediately went from the Forum last night to a Texas Hold 'Em tournament making for a rare daily double (to borrow from the racing industry) on a Wednesday night.

Texas Hold 'Em and Presidential Forums have as much in common as state sponsored gambling initiatives. Sort of like balancing the budget on the backs of gambling addicts such as what is being proposed in Annapolis (to benefit the racing industry).

Maybe there is not an answer to my question just like there is no answer to the question "who won the Presidential Debate last night?"

Six of the eight Democratic Presidential candidates appeared at Forum held at the Kensington Armory on Wednesday night. It was sponsored by virtually every Democratic club in the county (27 as of last count) which maybe rarer than my aforementioned daily double. Think about it; when was the last time that many Democrats agreed on anything?

Well the Democratic candidates did agree last night and the unifying theme was W, as in the President, as in Mr. Weapons of Mass Destruction, as in he lied and soldiers died.

George W. Bush hangs over both political parties in a way no other President has in my life. Neither Reagan at his zenith nor at his nadir can match our current President for unifying folks. Last night's Forum was no different.

The Forum was interesting to those of us who consider politics part-fascination and part-sport, sort of like "American Idol" where everyone is their own personal Simon Cowell. Granted that is a very small universe, but it is a passionate one.

From the couple who stood outside the Armory reminding people that it is Patriotic to Impeach to those passionately for one of the candidates inside it is like holding low cards and hoping the flop comes your way. You are not mathematically eliminated and so hope springs eternal and so you put some money down in the hopes that your cards will prevail.

Now if you were a causal voter you were nowhere near the Armory. But for the nearly 200 people who did attend it was a chance to hear the surrogates for six of the eight Democratic candidates remind us of why we like to talk politics.

Granted even in an hour and a half -- the length of the Forum -- the audience was limited to one minute responses to some complex issues facing our county, which is hardly fair. However the alternative of Perot flipcharts and CNN monologues would have limited the audience to the six surrogates only -- and this blogger.

"So who won?"
I can tell you who won the Texas Hold 'Em Tournament last night (Johnny O) but I can't answer who won the debate; because it is still before the heavy betting begins -- which is just before the flop. So call this the "pre-flop" maneuvers and it becomes real on Monday January 14th across Iowa, provided Michigan does not recalibrate things.

Just like Texas Hold 'Em where certain cards are generally losers and not even worth an ante-in, you can still play since it is still not impossible to draw a winning hand by using the community cards which is what all those candidates not named Clinton or Obama are hoping for -- that the country will sour so much on the current inhabitant -- and that with the right cards they can be the party's nominee.

So if you are near the back of the pack you bluff and bluster and hope for the best. In this case you hit the hardest at the front runner. Therefore it was no surprise that the harshest criticism came from Sen. Gravel's and Rep. Kucinich's surrogates. Still the overall tone was tame and I think the current officeholder had a lot to do with the unification so don't have anyone tell you that this President can't bring people together.

This quote from the John Edwards surrogate "Where do the Democrats get the tag of fiscally irresponsible when you have the record deficits of Reagan and Bush One and Two?" turns the conventional wisdom of the causal voter on its head so thanks Mr. President for unifying us Democrats under the banner of the fiscally prudent party.

Buzz Clinton
The audience was decidedly pro-Clinton probably because: 1) she is the front runner (there I go again with another gambling term) and 2) her local campaign folks did an excellent job of getting their people out. But what impressed me most about the Clinton folks is how many new activists she has. Every successful campaign I have been a part of has included one part experienced hands and one part new activist. And it is the newbies who are the folks that really create the campaign buzz. Call it Buzz Clinton.

Obama The Exploitor
Obama is like the player sitting at the table with the second best hand and needs to exploit things to unsettle the front runner. He brings part moxie and part brains to get an advantage. His surrogate, St. Senator Jamie Raskin, provided both. Their supporters were about half of the Clinton folks but maybe that had to do with Obama being in town so many of his supporters were at his low dollar fundraiser listening to the real thing rather than the excellent imitation by Raskin. Obamaites are also like the Clintonistas in that they have several new faces mixed in with veteran hands.

The other four candidates had less than a handful of supporters each at the event.

Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul as soulmates
I think Kucinich speaks to the soul of Democrats much like Ron Paul speaks to the soul of devoted Republicans; I doubt either will be elected but if you are a Democrat and don't agree with core points of the Representative from Cleveland you might want to check your party affiliation. As his surrogate, Steve Cobble, said after reminding the audience that the problems America faces need "big and bold responses and with Kucinich you get little and bold" (referring to his diminutive size) you had to like the fight in him.

Check with Montgomery County Cable to see the debate
Cable Channel 16 recorded the debate and it will be shown at a later date. When I find out when I will post a message on this blog. But I will tell you that the six surrogates (Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson) were well prepared and did a good job of speaking not about themselves but about their candidates.

So what do Texas Hold 'Em and a Presidential Forum have in common?
Probably that having the best cards in your hands does not guarantee victory and being the obvious front runner as Hillary is does not guarantee her nomination. The Iowa Caucus is 90 days out. It has not become an "ABC" race -- Anybody But Clinton race -- but anyone else is going to need to have the community cards at the table go their way to unseat her.