Is A Change Gonna Come?

Boy what a difference a few days make. Last Saturday I wrote how Al Wynn, with an assist from Dr. Michael Babula, won the debate at People's Community Baptist in Silver Spring. It was his day. Everything was different last night. Just like the classic Sam Cooke song, the NAACP Debate at PGCC in Largo could be the clearest signal that a new order may be coming to the 4th Congressional District.

Rennie Forum inside the Largo Student Center was a full house where the only undecideds were the reporters and custodians. They waited patiently through the Congressional 8th District (Van Hollen seat) and 5th District (Hoyer seat) milling in the lobby trading the latest rumors and stories before the main event of the evening the 4th District debate. By the time the 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans took the stage it was late and the crowd was eager to cheer their candidate on. That's not the news. The news is not the debate itself. All sides will point to a phrase or line that their candidate spoke that proves to all the wisdom of the speaker.

This was the Super Bowl of debates for the 4th District. I have been to four of them. This was the largest and most vocal debate. The audience wanted to take center stage. Sometimes they did. But here we are a week out and you get a gauge of who can organize; whose volunteers are pumped. Which side is gasping to make the finish line.

I collected some wonderful lines from last night debate. All candidates have hit their stride in their message and can connect with the audience. But if I wrote that you will be missing what really is going on. You need to look at the unobtrusive measures. Look at see what is going on around the room.

A sure sign of a campaign's strength is the number of supporters who will come out for you and listen to a debate. Sitting through a debate when you have already decided who you like calls for a hard core supporter. They are committed activists. They are people who will door knock, make phone calls, talk to their neighbors, contribute and most importantly vote. Michael Babula looked to be there alone. Although he did receive several hearty back slaps from a cadre of Wynn supporters afterwards as Dr. Mike again attacked not the incumbent but his main rival, Edwards. George McDermott had a single supporter. Jason Jennings had his mom, wife, members of his church, about ten in total. George Mitchell's supporters were easy to find in their bright yellow t-shirts. His wife and several other family members were there too. His supporters were almost two dozen. Al Wynn had a slightly more than Mitchell, call it around 30. They were either in his light blue t-shirts or wearing his lapel sticker over their suits. Michael Steele was among those supporting the Congressman. Donna Edwards support was in the first row to the top row. It was total; it was complete. Her supporters outnumbered, say it was 100, the combined total of the five Democrats and the three Republicans in this joint debate. They were in t-shirts or wearing her button. Edwards supporters cheered as if it was the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl and their team just went ahead. Has Al Wynn become the Patriots to Donna Edwards' Giants? Will the Congressman's unblemished political winning streak of twenty-six years through eleven elections remain intact for one more race?

Who is ahead in this race?
We don't know. It is a parlor game. There are no newspaper polls. Candidates Jennings and Babula (pictured to the left) along with Mitchell and McDermott don't have the money for a scientific statistically poll. Leaving the two major candidates with polls that are not being released. Candidates don't release the poll numbers if they want to avoid tipping their hand. A candidate that releases a poll is then obligated to have the pollster talk about the entire poll. So if you don't want to show your hand you don't release your internal poll. So how do you tell? You use those unobtrusive measures.

You look for signs of movement. People who are coming out to events. Look at a Sen. Obama rally. Does he not get the biggest crowds? Are people fired up about his campaign? You bet. The audience was pro-Obama and they cheered not for the candidate who was supporting Obama -- Al Wynn. They cheered most often and strongest for Donna Edwards, who remains uncommitted.
You look to see what their campaign ads look like. If you are ahead you run Morning in America ads as Reagan did in 1984. If you are behind you attack your opponent. What was the lasting impression of the debate? As the debate ended and the crowd was leaving on the TV set in the lobby was the latest Al Wynn ad running. It shows (see picture below) Donna Edwards as a puppet being controlled by two white operators. This was not an ad by a 527. It was an ad from his own campaign. He is down in the polls. He needs to vilify his main opponent, Donna Edwards, to win.


Maybe it was best said by Jason Jennings who thought Congressman Wynn was "like a prize fighter who is past his prime". Ads and debates don't win races. Getting votes do. But if this unobtrusive measures hold then we will have an upset to rival Sunday's Super Bowl.

It's been a long, a long time coming
But I know a change gonna come, oh yes it will
(A Change Gonna Come, Sam Cooke)