The Death of My Conventional Wisdom

From Marc Korman: I was wrong in many of my predictions for Primary Day. In the interest of honesty and disclosure, I thought I would share with you these numerous mistakes:

1. Donna Edwards’ Margin of Victory

In truth, until a few short weeks ago I did not think Donna Edwards could win at all. To be fair, I do not live in the 4th Congressional District and no part of the legislative district I represent on the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee is in Congressional-04 either.

Prior to the last few weeks, I was convinced that the early February primary would not give Donna Edwards enough to time to focus attention on the race. I also thought that Al Wynn had responded to his close call in 2006 by adjusting his voting pattern and sharply increasing his presence, especially in Montgomery County.

As the primary drew closer and Al Wynn began using negative campaign tactics, it became apparent that Edwards had a real shot at unseating him. Even so, I had no idea how decisive her victory would be. Defeating an entrenched incumbent is difficult. Even in 1994, when the Republicans took the majority in Congress, the reelection rate was 90%. In 2006, it was 94%. In 2004, what I would call a typical year, was 98%. Donna Edwards beating Al Wynn by over 20 points is incredible. The presumptive Congresswoman from the fourth Congressional district deserves credit for a hard fought campaign that essentially lasted for three years.

However, the many committed Democrats who worked for Congressman Wynn also deserve credit for their hard work and efforts. I was not at Al Wynn’s concession, but from all accounts he took his loss gracefully. That fight is behind us now.

2. Wayne Gilchrest’s Loss

Until EJ Pipkin entered the race for the 1st Congressional District, I thought there was a great chance Gilchrest would lose the primary to Andy Harris because Republicans generally like the extreme right. When Pipkin entered the race at the end of 2007, I thought Gilchrest would squeak by since the opposition would be divided. As the primary drew closer and the Republican presidential nomination was sewn up by a moderate, I thought Gilchrest’s chances improved again. With Mike Huckabee spending his time mounting a conservative campaign in Virginia, basically conceding Maryland to McCain, I thought Gilchrest was safe. In the end, Gilchrest lost to Harris by double digits. The good news is that Gilchrest’s loss sets up the outside possibility of Democrat Frank Kravotil winning in November.

3. Alies Muskin’s Loss

For several weeks I have been working on a blog entry about the power of the Apple Ballot. Obviously, it will need a few more rewrites. I was shocked that Muskin did not win this race. I did notice during election day that of the thirty District 16 polling places I visited, only two had Apple Ballot volunteers present. I have not looked at the Apple Ballot’s successes in other presidential election years (which are off years in Maryland), but given Apple Ballot support for Al Wynn and Muskin in this race, their winning percentage has taken a hit.

4. The Democratic Presidential Race

If you had told me last September that the Democratic race would be competitive when the Maryland primary came around, I would have laughed at you. At the time, I was convinced that Hillary Clinton would sail to the nomination, primarily due to name recognition, momentum, and what I thought was a lackluster campaign on Barack Obama’s part. All that changed in the fall and by December 31st, when the Des Moines Register released its pre-Iowa Caucus poll, I would have told you Maryland would not matter because Barack Obama would win Iowa and steamroll to the nomination by Super Tuesday due to momentum. Of course, after Clinton’s surprise victory in New Hampshire, it became clear that Maryland, and the states after, would matter.

Despite my poor prognostications, I still had a great time on primary day. The highlight was a moment I had while making get out the vote calls for Barack Obama. On my call list was MPW contributor Adam Pagnucco. As he is no fan of mine since I’m trying to raise his taxes and am a member of the politburo, I did not leave my name for fear it would cause him to vote against Obama. Given Obama’s huge victory, I had nothing to worry about.