The central committee of Maryland Politics Watch has voted. The most popular posts of 2007 are:
Monday, December 31, 2007
The Best of 2007
Duchy Pulls Controversial Press Release
Presidential politics has caused a kerfluffle in Montgomery County politics. A minor mistake by Councilwoman Duchy Trachtenberg's part appears to have become a full scale tempest in a teapot. Trachtenberg supports Hillary Clinton while Dan Clements, the attorney who called attention to Trachtenberg's action, supports Barack Obama.
Councilwoman Duchy Trachtenberg faced questions about using public resources to distribute news of her personal political activities from The Gazette and an Annapolis attorney.Now, posting activities of a primarily political nature with no relation to council business was probably a bad call. However, the expense involved was minor--computer resources are cheap. I imagine one could also question the amount of time county employees spent on this release which could have been focused on county business but it is still hard to get excited about it.
The Dec. 21 release described her plans to travel to Iowa to campaign for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in advance of the Jan. 3 caucuses.
Still, Duchy magnified the attention by first defending her decision as generally appropriate before pulling the press release:
On Wednesday, she called the release reasonable.Except that one tends to think that the county website is not just a taxpayer-funded version of Twitter, designed to advertise all activities on the part of members of the Council, but intended to focus on information related to the County. Nonetheless, I can see how this is a debatable question subject to interpretation.
‘‘I think it’s legitimate to present information to the general public on the activities that council members are engaged in,” said Trachtenberg, a first-term councilwoman. ‘‘I certainly didn’t see this as anything inappropriate.”
Duchy's real gaffe was giving a disingenuous justification for the press release:
She justified the item, saying her trip to Iowa would involve NOW forums, not Clinton campaign events.It's always bad when the headline of your own press release contradicts your statements to the media. And one suspects that a past president of Maryland NOW might not feel the same way if a pro-life councilman used the Council's website to trumpet their out-of-state activities to promote pro-life candidates.
Trachtenberg said the announcement was similar to council members describing their out-of-town speaking engagements.
‘‘Council members do have schedules outside the council building,” she said.
But the six-paragraph statement puts the emphasis on the political elements of the trip. The main headline reads: ‘‘Councilmember Duchy Trachtenberg Heads to Iowa to Help Clinton Campaign.” A smaller headline reads: ‘‘Montgomery County Legislator Has Been Asked to Speak About the Candidate with NOW Activists.”
It's never the original action but the cover-up that gets politicians every time. This rather minor judgment call might never have appeared on the front page of the Gazette of Politics and Business if Duchy had simply said it was a mistake and pulled the press release without defending or justifying it in ways easily disproved. If she had simply pulled the press release or stuck to her defense of this sort of press release as common, it is hard to imagine this story gaining much traction.
Duchy's final strategic error was to look afraid of the media:
Trachtenberg (D-At large) of North Bethesda did not return a call seeking comment Thursday.The Gazette is the widely distributed newspaper which covers Montgomery County politics closely. They also are not known for slice-and-dice reporting, so one should keep on good terms with its reporters and return their calls.
Like I said, a real tempest in a teapot. But also not the type of a press a councilmember completing her first year in office likes to attract.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
The Next Generation of State Leadership From Montgomery County
MPW is pleased to welcome Marc Korman. Marc is a law student at the University of Maryland and one of District 16's members on the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee. He worked as a policy advisor and legislative assistant on Capitol Hill for five years. He has previously served as president of the Montgomery County Young Democrats.
In Montgomery County, the past year and a half has brought a generational shift in our county's legislative delegation. November of 2006 saw the election of Jeff Waldstreicher (28), Saqib Ali (32), Craig Rice (35), Heather Mizeur (35), and Tom Hucker (40), and the reelection of Rob Garagiola (35) and Anne Kaiser (39).* Recent vacancies have led to the appointment of Kirill Reznik (33) and Bill Frick (33). When the legislative session opens in January of 2008, nine of Montgomery County's 32 state legislators will be 40 and under. 19 of 32 will be 50 and under. The average age of Montgomery County's Delegation has dropped from 56 years of age in 2006 to 48 years at the beginning of 2008.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Republican Follies at the Court of Appeals
Remember all those Republican posters from the 2000 election which said "Sore-Loserman". Republicans endlessly moaned that going to court was a failure to accept the will of the people. Not to mention bad sportsmanship.
Times have changed.
But Dan Friedman, author of a book on the Maryland Constitution, said courts are historically loath to probe the provenance of legislative records. "Under the separation of powers, they don't dig in," he said. "Courts will presume in these procedures that the legislature is following the rules."And they wonder why the people of Maryland turfed them out in 2006.
Even if there were procedural irregularities involving the adjournment's consent, Friedman predicted the courts would not allow the plaintiffs to exploit them to reverse major legislation.
Legislative Vacancies: Amendment Being Drafted
It appears that the serious flaws in Maryland’s system for filling state legislative vacancies (see my December 13 post on the topic) will be discussed during the upcoming session of the General Assembly.
Legislative Vacancies: Harford County
Del. Barry Glassman (District 35A) was recently selected by the Harford County Republican Central Committee to replace Sen. J. Robert Hooper, who announced after the special session that he is stepping down for health reasons. And just last weekend, the Central Committee unanimously selected one of its own members — Howard Wayne Norman — to replace Glassman in the House of Delegates.
Saturday, December 22, 2007
Photos of Jane Lawton
I thought Jane's many friends my like to see this nice photo album of pictures of Jane in the General Assembly which Del. Bill Bronrott put together. Many of these photos are also posted at the photo tribute on the Montgomery Delegation website.
Marie Garber and Mary Rodgers
The conduct of elections and election officials have come in for a lot of scrutiny and much criticism since the 2000 election. So it is nice to see the Washington Post recognize two people, Marie Garber and Mary Rodgers, who improved our election system:
MARIE M. GARBER of Montgomery County and Mary S. Rodgers of the District were two conscientious elections administrators who knew how to get results when it mattered most in their jurisdictions. They held their posts over the same period and -- as fate would have it -- died within a fortnight of each other. At one critical point in the District's chaotic introduction to voting for local self-government, Mrs. Garber and Mrs. Rodgers even teamed up to reorganize the city office and end a string of nightmarish electoral calamities: computer cards that jammed in counting machines, malfunctioning machines that once delayed tallies for 12 days and ballot boxes that fell off the back of a truck on the way to being counted.Hat tip to Del. Bill Bronrott (D-16).
In Montgomery, Mrs. Garber -- one of the most knowledgeable elections experts in the country -- led an effort to modernize the county's electoral system, introducing computerized registration and vote-counting methods and making the election office a national model of efficiency. In 1987, when incoming Gov. William Donald Schaefer foolishly replaced her with a political crony, Mrs. Garber went on to become an elections consultant, helping to set up voting systems around the world. "She was years ahead of her time," said former Montgomery County executive Douglas M. Duncan, who worked in Mrs. Garber's office in the 1970s. "She ran one of the best election shops in the country."
Mrs. Rodgers had to endure the mismanagement of several predecessors before she finally was promoted from longtime staffer to acting administrator and eventually to administrator. Her patience, steady hand, sense of humor and in-office popularity proved just the tonic. She knew where the glitches were and wasted no time righting the system along with an energetic new executive director, Emmett Fremaux Jr., who purged the voter rolls of thousands of dead or transplanted voters, commingled with bum addresses. Soon gone were the voting horrors that had been so singularly embarrassing to residents who had fought so long for a measure of self-government. Their hard-won franchise remains precarious, but the Election Day guffaws and growls in Congress have subsided over the years.
Mrs. Garber, who died at 83, and Mrs. Rodgers, who was 82, were exceptional public servants who shared a most treasured belief. Each valued deeply the importance of the vote and of the need to ensure its integrity. And each contributed mightily to the strength of the region.
Friday, December 21, 2007
How MoCo Does Special Elections
Montgomery County Council vacancies are filled by special elections. So why shouldn’t we do the same for state legislator vacancies?
Council and MCEA Set for New Round of Budget Clashes? Perhaps Not.
It's a lot easier to govern when economic times are good and the revenue flows into the treasury. In good times, officials can increase spending and sometimes even throw in a tax cut at the same time. Lean times make for tougher choices and unhappy voters as spending cuts are often combined with tax increases as the special sessions showed at the State level.
Although cuts made to the counties in the special session were smaller than feared, and Montgomery did well compared to other major jurisdictions, Montgomery County still faces a sizable budget deficit. According to the Gazette, the deficit is almost 10%:
Montgomery, with a $4.1 billion fiscal 2008 operating budget faces a $401 million deficit for fiscal 2009.Will this lead to new clashes over spending between MCEA which wants to see increases in salaries, the bulk of the sizable school budget, and the County Council, which has to balance the budget?
Thursday, December 20, 2007
You Can Call Him Delegate Al
Delegate Alfred Carr was sworn in as the most junior member of the House of Delegates by Speaker Michael Busch. Barrie, his wife, held the Bible as Al took the oath. His mother and aunt traveled from Ohio to watch and join the crowd of well wishers.
Hoisted from the Comments: Nancy Floreen Responds
Here is Councilmember Nancy Floreen's Response to the post below highlighting recent articles in the Gazette on growth policy:
Actually, I wasn't "attacking" anyone. I merely pointed out a fact that I believe people should know - our budget is premised on some amount of growth - this year, over 150 million dollars worth. That is not peanuts. I hadn't expected our fiscal numbers to look so bad so early, according to Ike's release right after we voted. Less growth means less revenue and more budget impact.
I never said the vote single handedly would bring our economy to a standstill - but I did say that I believe that it will contribute to shifting costs more directly to the shoulders of current residents. We'll see if I am right, but I think voters want us to worry about things like that. These debates we have are often bundled in lots of concerns, some, rather impenetrable, as Adam has pointed out. And the press rarely picks this stuff up, so if we want to make a point, we sometimes have to do it on our own.
Growth policy debates are rarely conducted in a budget environment, but this was a good opportunity to identify the relationship between decisions in one context, and their possibly unintended, un-noted consequences in the fiscal world.
I think it is useful to recognize the real life costs of our work as we proceed. What is the tipping point? we don't really know, but it is worth worrying about.
I believe us elected officials owe the public full, frank and reasoned explanations of why we do what we do and a recognition of the implications of our actions. Read Max Bronstein's piece in the Gazette as well for another take.
Raskin Leads Voting Rights Fight for 17-Year Olds
Sen. Jamie Raskin's effort to restore the right of 17-year olds to vote in primaries if they will be 18 by the date of the general election appears to have succeeded. As reported in the Washington Post, Attorney General Doug Gansler has reversed a decision of his staff interpreting a recent Court of Appeals decision in a contrary manner.
AG Gansler made the right call. Although the government has the right to regulate selected activities of political parties, the right to freedom of association in the First Amendment protects the right of parties to determine most aspects of their own activities (unless they conflict with protections elsewhere in the Constitution, particularly those on discrimination). Both Democrats and Republicans wanted to include 17-year olds who would turn 18 by Election Day, and the government has no compelling reason to overrule them.
However, don't expect a massive increase in voter turnout as a result.
Deputy Elections Administrator Ross Goldstein said that 2,308 17-year-olds voted in the 2004 Maryland primary and that 3,800 have registered to vote this year.Remember that turnout in primaries is small and people are more likely to vote as they age. Still, even if the turnout is small, I don't see any harm in letting 17-year olds vote in the primary if they'll be 18 by the general election.
Apologies for Blog Tech Problems
Sorry for the problems that left only the first paragraph of the blog unreadable to many. The problems did not appear in Firefox (my usual browser) but showed up when I attempted to access it in Explorer. I'm still getting the hang of expandable posts.
Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Council Acrimony Over Growth Policy Moves to the Papers
While I doubt they will ever beat out The Biggest Loser or Survivor, ratings for television broadcasts of County Council meetings could rise above zero to measurable levels if the tension in the Council on display in the papers moves to their public meetings.
After a tough debate, the Montgomery County Council adopted changes to the County's growth policy. However, the Council has not been able to move on from the issue. Indeed, Councilmembers are now taking their debate out of the Council and attacking each other in the Gazette.
Councilmember Valerie Ervin largely agrees:Market forces have now achieved what 20 years of arbitrary regulations could not — the reduction of growth to a crawl. And the new growth policy will only worsen our fiscal situation.
By establishing impossible-to-meet growth controls, it will discourage private sector investment and the creation of new jobs, new housing and tax revenue. Unless government picks up the check, at most we will only see more of the luxury housing, chain retail and huge corporations that can pay the price. So much for the economic and social diversity that Montgomery County has cherished.
This week, Councilmembers Phil Andrews, Marc Elrich, Marilyn Praisner, and Duchy Trachtenberg fired back, arguing that their colleague got it wrong:County Executive Isiah Leggett is on record as stating that the ‘‘charges imposed on residential development are ultimately reflected, in whole or in part, in the pricing of homes and care must be taken so that homes are not priced even further out of the reach of residents of moderate income.” I agree. Limiting new development makes our county a more exclusive and expensive place to live. Once housing prices get out of reach for most average people, individuals who work in the county will be forced to look for housing in other jurisdictions.
I have serious concerns about limiting growth in areas where the county has a history of encouraging development, such as near Metro stations. This is not my idea of smart growth. Some claim that theses areas are where robust development is taking place, but data show that 80 percent of commercial rentals are occurring outside these areas.
The Council quad is certainly right that many projects are already approved. Many projects already in the planning pipeline are on hold or going more slowly due to the economic slowdown rather than to the changes in the county growth policy.First, the effect of the growth policy won’t be felt immediately. Development already approved will continue to move forward. That approved development includes 31,616 housing units (projected timeline for build-out: six years), and 32,210,095 square feet of commercial space (projected timeline for build-out: 11 years). If the county experiences a slowdown in the coming months or year, it will be due to economic forces, not the newly adopted growth policy. A national recession that affected this entire country caused the funding shortfall the county experienced in the early 1990s, not a restrictive growth policy.
Second, Ms. Floreen’s contention that the growth policy will amplify the recent weakness in the housing market is also off base. Growth in housing and commercial development always ebbs and flows due to national economic forces. It is not something the county controls. What we can affect through the growth policy is the obligations on new growth, and who pays for it. Many of the county’s current budget problems have been caused by trying to catch up with infrastructure needs caused by past growth.
Thirdly, growth does not always pay for itself. New housing requires new roads, schools, recreation centers, parks, libraries and other infrastructure. Providing this new infrastructure costs money. With that in mind, the new growth policy included impact taxes to assure that new growth helps pay for itself, so that the burden of new growth does not fall solely on our current residents.
My impression in the southern part of the County is that residents will welcome a bit of a breather. In Bethesda and Silver Spring, the slower pace merely means that growth will proceed at a steady, albeit slower, pace instead if the pell-mell fever which has gripped the area in recent years with white development signs sprouting like daisies in urban centers.
And let's not forget BRACasaurus. The expansion of the Naval Medical Center--not to mention the growth of NIH across the street--promises to place incredible new stresses on the already burdened Wisconsin Ave./Rockville Pike corridor and the Beltway. Neither the County, the State, or the Feds are willing (or able?) to contribute the significant sums needed to address this serious issue as Adam Pagnucco has pointed out.
Still, it will be interesting to see if attitudes in the County shift if the economy slips into recession and growth grinds to a complete halt. Many years ago, voters in Fairfax County elected a team of Democrats on anti-growth Democrats and tossed them out in favor of pro-growth Republicans when the County went into recession.
Chris Van Hollen's Eulogy for Jane Lawton
Chris Van Hollen's office has received a lot of requests for a copy of his eulogy for Jane Lawton at her memorial service on December 2nd. I'm happy to post a copy here:
“Hey darling, how you doing?” Jane would ask in her endearing drawl. The first time I heard that accent, about twenty years ago, I thought it was southern. No, she informed me, it was a voice straight from the American heartland. It was the voice of a daughter of Oklahoma. Jane had first come to Washington to work for Speaker of the House Carl Albert. She never forgot her roots. In a political world filled with too much posturing and too many pretensions, Jane was authentic and down to earth. And how she made us smile. Her full Oklahoma laugh was infectious.
That's Nice, But Where Are You Getting the Money?
Lt. Governor Anthony Brown is promising billions to pay for BRAC projects. But not so fast.
Analysis of Progressivity of Special Session
The Maryland Budget and Tax Policy Institute (.pdf) views the results of the special session as regressive but says that Maryland still does better than other states.
Most of the revenue in the special session’s package comes from increasing the sales tax. This affects all consumers alike if their buying patterns are the same. But they aren’t. Lower-income taxpayers expend more of their income on purchases than higher income taxpayers do (they save less). And they spend more of their income on goods, which are generally subject to the sales tax, compared with services, which are generally not taxed. The Department of Legislative Services estimates that a poverty-level taxpayer pays almost twice the share of her income in sales tax as a household making $100,000. . . .
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimates that the overall effect of the tax package is regressive.5 The poorest 1/5 of taxpayers will pay nearly 0.8% more of their income in taxes. The middle 1/5 will pay half that percentage: just over 0.4%. The wealthiest 1/5 will pay between 0.3% and 0.5% of their incomes in increased taxes. This overall regressive distribution occurs because the regressive nature of the sales tax rate increase overwhelms the progressive features of the income tax changes. . . .
Maryland’s tax system does more than most states to spare citizens living in poverty. The very poor are protected from paying state income tax. For example, for a two-parent family of four, no tax is due in incomes below $31,000. Only six states have higher tax thresholds. For working families, Maryland provides a refundable earned income tax credit (EITC). As a result, a family of four with wage earnings and the poverty level of income would actually receive a $423tax refund to supplement their earnings.
Maryland relies more on income tax revenue than most states: 42% versus the national average of 35%. The flip side of this fact is that Maryland relies less on the general sales tax: 23% versus the national average of 32%. Since the sales tax is less responsive to incomes, it hits lower-income families harder. Maryland’s revenue system draws less from this regressive tax than most other states.
Our New Look
Maryland Politics Watch is going through some growing pains
I've added expandable posts so more can fit on the "front page". Just click on "Read more. . ." to see the full post and "Summary only. . ." to collapse the post.
I've also changed the template of the blog from "harbor" to "stretch denim".
Feel free to let us know what you think in the comments.
Is MoCo a Giant ATM?
Reflecting the wrestling over taxes which characterized the recent special session of the General Assembly, Montgomery County Executive Ike Leggett and Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown had a slight disagreement at the Committee for Montgomery breakfast last week.
Purple Line Perestroika?
Departing from its policy of releasing information to the public strictly on its own timetable and a need-to-know basis, MTA will release information to the public. Plunging straight into the deep end of the pool, MTA will even respond to questions and information requests. Could posting all of this information to the web be next?
On Political Pulse
Maryland Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown will be on the Political Pulse TV Show on:
Thursday, December 20th at 9 p.m.
Tuesday, December 25th at 9:30 p.m.
Thursday, December 27th at 9:00 p.m. and
Tuesday, January 1st at 9:30 p.m.
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
The 411 on 911
From Sally Hand:
Sunday evening I received and email saying that 911 services had been restored. This worried me a bit since I had never received any notice that the 911 system had been down. Today in the Washington Post, I read that the service was down for 3 hours and the police where not aware because no one had called the police to say that the 911 service was not working. What is wrong here – I can't call 911 because it is down, yet I need to call 911 to tell them the system is down?
We live in a world of computers – it is easy to set up a program that will alert the police that 911 is not working – no one should need to call. This is the second time in three months that the 911 system has gone down. Who is in charge of making it work? As the center of our civil defense system the 911 system should be one of the highest priorities. This system is surely needed daily for fires and accidents, but what if a terrorist decided to set off a bomb or a crazy sniper rears his head again? President Bush keeps telling us we are at war; local officials aren't acting like they have anything to worry about. Homeland Security – please send MoCo money to get a 911 system that really works. We don't need wire tapping – we need infrastructure.
Racial Diversity in Montgomery's State Legislative Delegation
| Population | State Legislators | ||||||||
| District | White | Black | Asian | Latino | White | Black | Asian | Latino | |
| 14 | 58.9 | 19.6 | 13.6 | 6.2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 15 | 65.0 | 8.5 | 18.0 | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | 75.8 | 4.4 | 10.9 | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 17 | 49.2 | 12.8 | 17.7 | 19.0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 18 | 50.5 | 14.3 | 10.8 | 21.9 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 19 | 51.5 | 18.2 | 13.6 | 15.3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 32.7 | 33.5 | 11.8 | 23.1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 39 | 50.4 | 17.2 | 16.3 | 14.2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| ALL | 54.9 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 13.8 | 25 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
Much of the discussion over state legislative vacancies was dominated by the need to increase the share of women and the racial diversity of the County's delegation. Today, I take a quick look at the current level of racial diversity among state legislators from Montgomery and the relation to the racial composition of legislative districts.
Whites form just under 54.9% of the County's population but 78.1% of the County's state legislative delegation. Blacks, Asians, and Latinos form 15.9%, 13.3%, and 13.8% of the population, respectively, but only 9.4%, 9.4%, and 3.1% of the legislative delegation.
Asians would need just one more legislative seat to achieve parity with population. African Americans would require two more seats to reach parity. Latinos have the largest gap between share in the population and the delegation. High rates of non-citizenship among Latinos account for a portion, though not all, of this gap.
Interestingly, there is little relationship between the racial composition of a legislative district and the share of minority legislators. The correlation between these two factors is actually negative (r = -0.36) indicating that one is more likely to find minority legislators in districts with relatively few minority residents.
Districts 19 and 20 help explain this surprising outcome. Although District 20 is the only district in the County in which whites form significantly less than one-half of the population, all of the its state legislators are white. Four districts (Districts 17, 18, 19, and 39) are roughly one-half white. District 19 has no minority state legislators while Districts 17 and 39 have one. District 18 has two due to the recent appointment of Delegate Al Carr.
In contrast, the three districts with clear white majorities (Districts 14, 15, and 16) all have one minority member of their legislative delegations. Put another way, the whitest districts in the County have as much or more minority representation than every other district except District 18. Notably, they each have more minority representation than the County's single district in which minority groups form a sizable majority of the population.
This presence of minority legislators but the lack of a strict relationship between district racial composition and where minority legislators serve may be a good thing. If character and quality matter more than fitting into the right box, one would expect at least some disjuncture between racial composition and the race of legislators.
Does anyone want to seriously suggest that Del. Craig Rice somehow becomes less eligible or less capable of representing District 15 because he is an African-American man but African Americans comprise under 9% of his constituents?
On the other hand, the table also suggests where further gains in minority representation are most likely to occur: Districts 19 and 20. Neither district has any minority state legislators though both are home to relatively high minority populations.
Despite its strong liberal tradition and pride in its urban diversity, the City Council of Takoma Park does not provide a fertile ground for recruitment of future minority legislators in District 20. As a member of the County Council pointed out to me, Takoma Park does not have a single minority person on the City Council. According to the 2000 Census, Takoma Park was 48.8% white, 34.0% black, 14.4% Latino, and 4.4% Asian.
Note: The left side of the table shows the percentage of the population falling into different racial groups according to the most recent edition of The Almanac of State Legislative Elections for the state legislative districts and the 2006 U.S. Census estimates for the county as a whole. The right side of the table shows the number of state legislators falling in each of the same racial categories.
Monday, December 17, 2007
Rumor du Jour
Reggie Oldak and Don Mooers are planning to run a slate for the House of Delegates in 2010 and are currently looking for a third person. Both competed unsuccessfully for the recent vacancy caused by Del. Marilyn Goldwater's resignation which went to Del. Bill Frick. Oldak was endorsed by the Washington Post and came in a strong fourth for the House in 2006. After the election, she took a job as an aide to newly-elected County Councilmember Roger Berliner. Don Mooers, an attorney, ran for Congress unsuccessfully against then Rep. Connie Morella.
If the rumor is true, it would make for the most interesting race in District 16 in years. Oldak and Mooers would both be strong candidates. In contrast, the incumbents have not faced strong challenges, running on full incumbent slates. Like Bill Frick, Del. Susan Lee also arrived in the legislature by appointment in 2002. Del. Bill Bronrott also has not faced a strong challenge since he won the seat vacated by Del. Gilbert Genn in 1998. Bronrott won at least partly because of a backlash against Genn's attempt to give the seat to a friend by announcing his retirement from the House after the filing deadline for candidates and has also not faced a strong challenge.
Sunday, December 16, 2007
Analyzing Purple Line Cost Effectiveness
Table 1
| Ridership Estimate | Cost Estimate ($million) | Cost/Rider | |||
| TSM | 18000 | 105 | 5833 | ||
| Low BRT | 32000 | 485 | 15156 | ||
| Med BRT | 39500 | 700 | 17722 | ||
| High BRT | 43500 | 1255 | 28851 | ||
| Low LRT | 39500 | 1245 | 31519 | ||
| Med LRT | 43500 | 1260 | 28966 | ||
| High LRT | 45500 | 1685 | 37033 |
TSM = Enhanced-Regular Bus, BRT = Rapid-Bus, LRT = Light-Rail
Table 1 shows the ridership, cost, and cost per rider for enhanced regular-bus service and the various rapid-bus and light-rail Purple Line proposals. Remember that ridership is the number of trips. If we assume that most people make a roundtrip on the Purple Line, then the number of people riding it is only 50% of the numbers here (e.g. a ridership of 40,000 is equivalent to 20,000 people making roundtrips).
Enhanced regular bus is by far the cheapest option. I wonder how many more riders would show up if the enhanced-regular bus option were expanded further. While it would clearly carry fewer people, it would also cost much less than the other options in terms of both total cost and cost per rider. The cost per rider for rapid-bus is around 3 to 5 times higher. The cost per rider of light rail is 5 to 6 times higher.
Table 2
| Operating & Maintenance Costs ($million) | O&M Costs/Rider | |
| TSM | 7 | 389 |
| Low BRT | 9 | 281 |
| Med BRT | 9 | 228 |
| High BRT | 8 | 184 |
| Low LRT | 20 | 506 |
| Med LRT | 18 | 414 |
| High LRT | 17 | 374 |
Table 2 shows the operating and maintenance costs for each option. Enhanced-regular bus has the cheapest total costs but it is more expensive per rider than any of the rapid-bus options. However, the difference is small enough that enhanced-regular bus still is more cost efficient. Even after 25 years of operation, enhanced-regular bus would still be more than 50% cheaper after taking into account operating and maintenance costs.
Tables 1 and 2 also make clear that rapid-bus transit is clearly more cost effective than light-rail transit. The initial investment required for every light-rail option is more expensive than every rapid-bus option is terms of cost per rider. The comparison becomes even more favorable to rapid-bus if one takes into account operating and maintenance costs in terms of either total expenditures or cost per rider.
No wonder MTA Project Leader Mike Madden, a promoter of the light-rail system, is now playing down cost effectiveness in terms of choosing a plan to submit to the federal government for funding after having previously emphasized competitiveness. The cost effectiveness numbers favor rapid bus over light rail.
Table 3
| Ridership Above TSM | Cost Above TSM | Marginal Cost/Rider Above TSM | |
| Low BRT | 14000 | 380 | 27143 |
| Med BRT | 21500 | 595 | 27674 |
| High BRT | 25500 | 1150 | 45098 |
| Low LRT | 21500 | 1140 | 53023 |
| Med LRT | 25500 | 1155 | 45294 |
| High LRT | 27500 | 1580 | 57455 |
As shown in table 3, the various Purple Line alternatives attract around 7000 and 13,750 additional people making roundtrips (the equivalent to the 14,000-27,500 ridership numbers in the table) above TSM/enhanced-regular bus. Table 3 also presents the marginal cost of capturing ridership above enhanced-regular bus service.
Put another way, this is the cost of getting the people who would not ride enhanced-regular buses to get on one of the rapid-bus or light-rail transit options. From this perspective, the cost per rider is far higher than enhanced-regular bus. Attracting the people who would not get on the enhanced-regular bus studied by MTA would cost around 5 to 10 times more per trip than each trip on enhanced-regular bus.
The public could not make these calculations for itself at the recent Purple Line open houses because the ridership for TSM (enhanced-regular bus) was listed as "N/A" (see my photograph taken at the open house from the B-CC High School). I got the 18,000 figure for TSM ridership by asking MTA's ridership expert at the meeting what is TSM and what is the estimated ridership.
Remember that these numbers are from MTA and that the data behind the numbers has yet to be revealed to the public or subject to public scrutiny by either supporters or opponents of the various options.
Friday, December 14, 2007
Metro Wants More from Me: What I Want from Metro
The following is by Sally Hand who is new to MPW. A law librarian for the past 25 years working in private, governmental and educational settings, Sally is also the Community Outreach Coordinator for Delegate Saqib Ali (D-39). Of course, the views presented here are her own. She and her dog Ginger Jar are residents of Germantown. Welcome!
With the announcement of the new Metro fare hikes on Dec 13th my cost to get to work just went up $1.95 a day, or $39 a month, or $468 a year. I am a middle-class working women who can rearrange my budget to cover this increase and will but it is now cheaper for me to drive into DC, park in DC and drive home than it is to use Metro. I believe that others might give up using the Metro since it is so expensive and the service is erratic.
Since Metro wants so much of my paycheck this is what I would like from Metro:
* Ample parking – either at Metro Stations or at a Park & Rides with frequent bus service
* Buses that travel to the Park & Rides as long as Metro is open (currently the last 124 bus leaves Shady Grove at 8pm – I often have to work late and have to cab it to the Park & Ride)
* Clear announcements that give information
* Train drivers that look before they close the car doors
* Emails that explain the disruption not just say it is cleared
I encourage ridership of the Metro and the ride on buses as the Green way to get to work. There are costs to the environment that Metro can assist healing. My carbon footprint is much smaller using public transportation than if I drove to work everyday. If Metro really wants to be a service to the entire community than they need to look at ways to encourage riders so that there are less cars on the roads these fare increases without service upgrades are just a way to lose ridership ergo losing more money.
P.S. Metro was shocked at the low turnout for the public forum in Reston about the fare increases. Hello, the hearing was not Metro accessible.
Discrimination Alleged by Democrats
"Beyer drops bid to replace Maryland delegate: Activist blames ‘trans phobia’ for withdrawal" was printed in today's Washington Blade:
Interestingly, this article had no quote from either of the district's two most prominent openly gay elected officials, Sen. Rich Madaleno and Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman. Mayor Fosselman backed Al Carr, a Kensington councilman, very strongly from the start. Sen. Madaleno issued a public letter in support for Al Carr before the Central Committee voted.“It was clear to me that I wasn’t going to be selected,” she told the Blade. “I work in political circles. Word gets around. It’s not hard to discern.”
Beyer said she was “not really free to say” what she learned or was told to indicate the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee would not choose her to replace Lawton.
But some observers said Beyer, who works for Montgomery County Councilmember Duchy Trachtenberg and helped pass a measure last month that bars discrimination against transgender people, was hindered by her distinction as a transgender woman.
“I think it’s hard to deny that there isn’t at least some component of trans phobia in this situation,” said Scott Davenport, president of Equality Montgomery County.
Davenport said the Central Committee has a “very clear” preference for candidates that are “least likely to make waves.” If appointed, Beyer would have been the nation’s first transgender state lawmaker.
“I don’t believe this is 100 percent about trans phobia,” he said, “but I do believe this is about lack of political courage.”
Milton Minneman, a Central Committee spokesperson, said the organization was not concerned that Beyer is transgender.
“The Central Committee as a whole is certainly supportive of any gender designation and has no biases against anybody who is GLBT,” he said. “We have no reason why someone who is GLBT should not be elected to any body or government.” . . .
Beyer, who last week told the Blade that her distinction as a transgender woman “isn’t an issue and it shouldn’t be an issue” in the race, said she still faced an uphill battle.
“Being the first at anything is difficult,” she said. “This is a recurrent motif in American politics.”
Beyer said she was highly qualified for the seat because she’s a retired physician and has policy experience, but “the fact that I have an unusual gender history still ranks high in people’s minds.”
“When people finally accept me as an older female physician with political skills and leadership skills, then I will have accomplished my goal,” she said. “That day is obviously not today, but it might not be too far in the future.”
Beyer noted that she still considers herself eligible for Maryland’s next legislative election in 2010.
“You really can’t plan that far ahead because life can change drastically in a second,” she said. “So it’s hard to be precise on this, but it’s not a stretch to say I’m not going anywhere and I will stay in the mix.”
New Military Policy: Do Tell, Go Back to Work?
Is the shortage of soldiers making it harder to get kicked out of the military for homosexuality?
After leaving Iraq, he says he started receiving anonymous emails warning him about his openness that suggested he was being watched, so he went to his commander to head off an investigation he felt was coming.Randy Shilts wrote in Conduct Unbecoming that discharges for homosexuality commonly decline in wartime. This war is no exception with discharges down 50 percent since 2001. Another theory is that, like other Americans, soldiers have become more tolerant and just think this is a dumb policy.
"I didn’t know how else to do it,” he tells Stahl, acknowledging that he initiated an investigation of himself by violating the policy. “I felt more comfortable being the one to say, ‘This is what is real,'" Manzella says.
He then says his commander reported him, as he was obliged to do, and then “I had to go see my battalion commander, who read me my rights,” he tells 60 Minutes.
He turned over pictures of him and his boyfriend, including video of a passionate kiss, to aid the investigation.
But he tells Stahl he was surprised by the outcome.
"I was told to go back to work. There was no evidence of homosexuality," Manzella says.
"'You’re not gay,'" he says his superiors told him.
Who’s Got the Biggest War Chests in MoCo?
If you have not done this already, go visit the UMBC Maryland Campaign Finance website. It’s a fun research tool and you’ll learn things about politicians you won’t believe. For example: who’s got money and who’s broke?
We here at MPW are, as always, dedicated to our growing legions of devoted readers. As usual, WE will do the work so that YOU – the informed political consumers who know enough to visit us every day – can draw your own conclusions. So, let’s go to the data!
Broadly speaking, candidate finances are reported in five categories: receipts, expenditures, cash/account balance, in-kinds and outstanding obligations. Think of the difference between account balance and outstanding obligations as a political balance sheet. High balances with no obligations can be liquidated as political ammo immediately. Outstanding obligations are almost always loans that candidates make to themselves. With every dollar they spend, candidates with high outstanding obligations are deciding whether to keep running for office or replenish their depleted nest eggs. These being politicians, most will decide to buy that extra campaign sign.
The last financial reports came in as of 1/17/07. The next batch should be in around Valentine’s Day – fitting, don’t you think? Of course, a lot has happened over the last year but fret not – we will update you.
So which MoCo state legislators have the most money? Measured by campaign account balance, the three best-financed MoCo Senators were Jennie Forehand (D17 - $64,092), Brian Frosh (D16 - $41,667) and Rob Garagiola (D15 - $31,024). The three poorest MoCo Senators were Jamie Raskin (D20 - $4,821), Mike Lenett (D19 - $7,518) and Nancy King (D39 - $8,875). To be fair to King, she was only recently appointed to the Senate.
Among the MoCo Delegates, the three best-financed were Susan Lee (D16 - $66,027), Heather Mizeur (D20 - $38,869) and Jeff Waldstreicher (D18 - $32,158). The three poorest were Al Carr (D18 - $280), Brian Feldman (D15 - $338) and Saqib Ali (D39 - $391). To be fair to Carr, he was not a Delegate at the time of his last report.
It’s not just about account balance though. Remember those pesky outstanding obligations? Sometimes they’re not merely pesky – they’re absolutely colossal. I know it’s shocking, but some politicians will spend lots of their own money to win. The only three MoCo Senators who reported outstanding obligations were Mike Lenett (D19 - $160,000), Jamie Raskin (D20 - $20,000) and Rob Garagiola (D15 - $10,000). All had contested races and all of these obligations were loans to their own campaigns.
The Delegates who reported the largest outstanding obligations were Ben Kramer (D19 - $114,450), Roger Manno (D19 - $70,000) and Jeff Waldstreicher (D18 - $42,417). Again, all had seriously contested races and all of their obligations were loans to themselves. So dear reader, if you had to put in $100,000 of your own money to just have a shot at winning office, would you do it?
Now here’s the interesting part. Subtract outstanding obligations from account balances and which incumbents were the most solvent? Among MoCo Senators, the leaders were Jennie Forehand (D17 - $64,092), Brian Frosh (D16 - $41,667) and Rob Garagiola (D15 - $21,024). No surprises there. But two Senators actually had negative net assets – Mike Lenett (D19 – negative $152,482) and Jamie Raskin (D20 – negative $15,179).
Among the delegates, the leaders in net assets were Susan Lee (D16 - $66,027), Heather Mizeur (D20 - $38,869) and House Majority Leader Kumar Barve (D17 - $30,843). The worst off were Ben Kramer (D19 – negative $113,252), Roger Manno (D19 – negative $67,611) and Al Carr (D18 – negative $19,370). Seeing as how Kramer and Manno serve in the same district, they would be wise to run together on a slate to avoid bankrupting each other.
One note of caution. Many of these candidates have joint slate accounts that pay for multi-candidate signs and mailings. Those who stick together on slates and collect the Apple Ballot need less money to win (and almost always do win). So monetary weakness does not always equal political weakness.
What about potential Delegate challengers? Jean Cryor (D15), Joan Stern (D39), Aaron Klein (D20), appointment candidate Hugh Bailey (D39) and Ryan Spiegel (D17) all finished with positive account balances, though Bailey and Spiegel had very little money left. Regina Oldak (D16), Paul Griffin (D19), Alec Stone (D19) and Dana Beyer (D18) all finished with five-digit outstanding loans to themselves. Beyer’s outstanding loan total – $75,000 – was only exceeded by Lenett and Kramer. These four candidates will probably have to choose between running for office again or making a down payment on that Eastern Shore beach cabin we all want. Crab-loving hedonist that I am, I’d take the beach cabin.
Woodmont East II, Round II
Councilman Roger Berliner's office tells me that the developers of Woodmont East II are back with a new plan:
Back in September, Councilmember Berliner organized a public roundtable to discuss the Woodmont East development proposal. Over 100 people attended the meeting and many raised concerns about the project. After continued criticisms about the project by the community, Councilmember Berliner, and the Montgomery County Planning Board, the developers withdrew the proposal.The meeting will be from 7-9pm on January 8th at the Bethesda Chevy Chase Regional Services Center located at 4805 Edgemoor Lane in Bethesda. There is a big parking lot under the building or you can Metro or Ride-On there.
The development team has now made changes to their design and will make these plans available to the public. Councilmember Berliner is convening another public roundtable on Tuesday January 8th to allow members of the community to view the plans and ask questions.
Thursday, December 13, 2007
Should the MoCo Dem Central Committee Be Expanded?
There is a proposal to do just that and the hearing is tonight. It is part of a series of local bills being heard by the County Affairs Committee of our MoCo Delegation. Betta you didn't know that our General Assembly folks have their own web site. Worth a look.
Back to the bill, Sen. Nancy King and Del. Charles Barkley -- both of District 39 (Montgomery Village, portions of Germantown, Derwood and unincorporated Gaithersburg) -- want to expand the MCDCC from 23 members (2 members from each of the 8 districts and 7 at large members) to 27 members. The MCDCC is opposed. Click here to learn more.
The hearing for this bill and 17 others will begin tonight at the Stella Werner Building (MoCo County Council Building) at 7:00 P.M. The public is welcome.
Other bills of interest are: Delegate Susan Lee (District 16 -- Chevy Chase, Bethesda) is submitting a bill on behalf of Councilman Phil Andrews (District 3 -- Rockville, Gaithersburg, Darnestown) to regulate campaign finance for races in MoCo. The offices that would be affected are: the MoCo Executive, State's Attorney and the nine members of the County Council. They might be more but I guess don't the details all that well. But I do know that the races for the MD GA will not be covered. Click here for more.
Finally Charles Barkley is proposing that cell phone towers at MoCo Elementary and JR High Schools be banned. Since that is a big money maker for the School Board, guess who is against it: The Superintendent of the Schools, Jerry Weast, the School Board and the MCEA. Click here for more.
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