It doesn't appear that democracy is the Maryland GOP's strong suit according to the Chair of the Montgomery County Republican Party: The Maryland State Republican Party on May 7th, 2011 adopted a new voting formula for party business under which counties with a combined population of 200,000 people can outvote counties with 2.5 million people.
Under this new voting formula adopted by the state party at its Spring Convention in Ocean City:
• Anne Arundel, with 28 times the Republicans as Kent County now only has only 4.5 times the vote for party business as Kent.
• Baltimore County, with 30 times Republicans as Kent County, now only has only 4 times the vote for party business of Kent.
• Prince George’s, with 12 times the Republicans as Kent County, now has only has only 1.6 times the vote for party business of Kent.
The change continues the state party's retreat toward focusing only on the state’s few majority Republican areas.
This is only the latest example of a continuing phenomenon. Last year the state party declined to run a candidate for Attorney General. Before that, a prior State Party Chair undermined our Republican legislative leaders with his feud over legislative policy and strategy.
Montgomery Republicans reject this strategy of retreat. We believe that marginalizing Maryland Republicans only to more rural areas just makes Martin O'Malley’s, Mike Busch’s and Mike Miller’s fondest dreams come true.
Out of necessity the Montgomery County Republican party will follow its own distinct, separate course. We can do this because of the long standing strong support of our Republican donors and activists, which we appreciate.
Montgomery Republicans are committed to presenting voters with a conservative governing alternative based on a belief in personal responsibility, faith in free markets and support for limited government. We will continue to build the organizational infrastructure to support candidates who advance these views.
Montgomery Republicans will also continue to work with other Maryland Republicans, who our commitment to a competitive statewide Maryland Republican Party. These include the Republican House Caucus Slate Committee and especially those in counties such as Baltimore City, Carroll and Prince Georges.
Mark Uncapher,
Chairman, Montgomery County Republican Party
Thursday, May 19, 2011
MoCo GOP Chair Attacks New Party Rules
Tuesday, February 01, 2011
GOP: MoCo Should Pay for the Purple Line
The Examiner reports:Maryland Republican senators say taxpayers in the Washington suburbs should pay for the planned Purple Line instead of sharing the costs with rural counties.
The State has yet to specify how it intends to pay for its share of the cost related to either the Purple Line or the Red Line.
"If people in Montgomery County want a Purple Line, let them pay for it," said state Senate Minority Whip E.J. Pipkin, of the Eastern Shore.
The planned 16-mile light rail, which would connect New Carollton to Bethesda, would cost the state roughly $1.6 billion. A $1.8 billion high-speed rail -- the "Red Line" -- is planned for Baltimore.
Pipkin and Sen. David R. Brinkley, R-Frederick County, are drafting legislation that would create an independent taxing authority to collect revenues for the rails.
Friday, January 07, 2011
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Andy Harris: Government-Run Health Care "Got Us Into Bankruptcy"
Surely, you have heard of Congressman-Elect Andy Harris’s newfound support for government-run health care – at least for himself – by now. But to appreciate the full head-spinning magnitude of his conversion to socialism, one has to observe his statements on the issue while he ran for office. This video comes from his February 2010 appearance at the Cecil County Patriots Candidate Forum.
At 1:50 of the video, Harris is asked his opinion on the federal government’s role in health care. At 3:15, Harris begins his answer by denouncing Medicare and Medicaid and predicting that more government-run health care “got us into bankruptcy and will keep us in bankruptcy.” And yet, Harris’s first action as a Congressman-Elect is to complain that he can’t get government-run health care for himself fast enough.
Rarely has the stomach-churning stench of hypocrisy wafted so heavily over Capitol Hill.
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Monday, November 15, 2010
The Wildest Michael Steele Quotes of All Time
Now that RNC Chairman Michael Steele is fighting for a second term, we are taking this opportunity to review his many contributions to American political dialogue. For the enlightenment of our readers, we present the wildest Michael Steele quotes of all time.
Number 20
Steele tells Sean Hannity that the GOP will not win the House. Hannity: “Do you think you can take over the House? Do you think Republicans...” Steele: “Not this year. And Sean, I would say honestly.” (January 2010)
Number 19
Steele defends the Republican platform: “Our platform is one of the best political documents that’s been written in the last 25 years. Honest Injun on that.” (January 2010)
Number 18
Steele calls Sarah Palin’s talk of death panels in the health care bill “perfectly appropriate.” (August 2009)
Number 17
Steele addresses criticism of technical problems with the newly relaunched GOP website: “It’s not even really a website.” (October 2009)
Number 16
Steele chants, “Drill, baby, drill! And drill now!” at the Republican convention in September 2008. Steele stops using the phrase after the 2010 BP oil spill.
Number 15
Steele says the stimulus package “is just a wish list from a lot of people who have been on the sidelines for years... to get a little bling, bling.” (February 2009)
Number 14
Steele on being in a room with white Republicans: “I mean I’ve been in the room and they’ve been scared of me. I’m like, ‘I’m on your side…’” (November 2009)
Number 13
Steele responds to a comment by a Fox News anchor on President Obama’s “health care train having left the station:” “Well, I’m the cow on the tracks.” (October 2009)
Number 12
Steele asks Florida Republicans to send Delegates who “look like Florida” to the next GOP convention: “Could you help a brother out? No more national conventions with 36 people of color in the room.” (April 2009)
Number 11
Steele gets fed up with his critics inside the GOP: “I tell them to get a life. That’s old Washington, that’s old ways, and I don’t represent that, and that kills them… I’m telling them and I’m looking them in the eye and say I’ve had enough of it. If you don’t want me in the job, fire me. But until then, shut up. Get with the program or get out of the way.” (January 2010)
Number 10
Steele on why he opposes “empathetic” judges: “Crazy nonsense empathetic. I’ll give you empathy. Empathize right on your behind. Craziness.” (May 2009)
Number 9
Steele is asked why African Americans should vote for Republicans and responds, “You really don’t have a reason, to be honest… We haven’t done a very good job of giving you one.” (April 2010)
Number 8
Steele agrees with a radio caller that President Obama is “the magic Negro.” (May 2009) Here is the transcript:CALLER: It’s just like the LA Time said last year or two years ago: He is the magic Negro.
Number 7
STEELE: Yeah he — [laughing]. You read that too, huh? [still laughing]
CALLER: Oh yeah. I read that too. Even when things go wrong, he still manages to come out smelling like a rose.
STEELE: Well, yeah.
Steele on how gay marriage creates greater health care costs for small business: “Now all of a sudden I’ve got someone who wasn’t a spouse before, that I had no responsibility for, who is now getting claimed as a spouse that I now have financial responsibility for. So how do I pay for that? Who pays for that? You just cost me money.” (May 2009)
Number 6
Steele on Rush Limbaugh: “Rush Limbaugh is an entertainer. Rush Limbaugh, his whole thing is entertainment. Yes it’s incendiary, yes it’s ugly.” (February 2009) Two days later, Steele takes it back: “I wasn’t trying to slam him or anything.” (March 2009)
Number 5
Steele on the liberal media: “We can’t coast into the majority, nor can we assume it’s a sure thing. The liberal media are looking for any possible alternative narrative to tell. They are looking for those distractions, and Lord knows I’ve provided a few.” (April 2010)
Number 4
Steele sends “slum love out to my buddy,” Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal. (February 2009)
Number 3
Steele promises to reach out to African American voters by telling them, “I got the fried chicken and potato salad.” (July 2009)
Number 2
Steele says the war in Afghanistan is a “war of Obama’s choosing… This is not something the United States had actively prosecuted or wanted to engage in.” (July 2010)
And the single wildest Michael Steele quote of all time…
Steele is told by liberal columnist David Corn, “Well, I have to say, thank you. You’ve been good for business.” Steele responds, “I’m the gift that keeps on giving.” (May 2009)
Sunday, November 14, 2010
The Craziest Campaign Speech Ever?
This is Phil Davison, a GOP candidate for Treasurer in Stark County, Ohio. And no, he did not win.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Party Performance by County: Summary
Over the last week, we have looked at the performance of the Maryland Republican Party in the Democratic Big Three jurisdictions; Central and Southern Maryland; Western Maryland; Baltimore and Harford Counties and the Upper Eastern Shore; and the Central and Lower Eastern Shore. We considered voting percentages and win rates in federal, state and county elections. We did not emphasize voter registration by party because Maryland has lots of crossover voters.
What does it all mean together?
Here is the status of party competition in each of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions.
And here is a summary.
The Democrats can compete, build their bench and regenerate their ranks in every region of the state except Western Maryland. They start every statewide election with a geographic edge accounting for 45% of Maryland voters. The GOP cannot compete in three of the state’s four largest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and in the state’s fastest-growing county (Charles). Additionally, the Republicans have significant problems in the third-largest county (Baltimore) and the sixth-largest county (Howard). The broadest definition of geographic influence for the Republicans gives them a starting position of less than one-quarter of Maryland’s voters.
This math does not work for the GOP. If current conditions continue, they will not be able to compete on a statewide basis. They have to turn quite a few more counties their way or face the reality of minority status – forever.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Party Performance in the Central and Lower Eastern Shore
Today we’ll look at election results in six counties in the Central and Lower Eastern Shore.
Caroline County
0.5% of Registered Voters (22nd)
Solid Republican
The entire statehouse delegation and County Commission are Republicans. Enough said.
Talbot County
0.7% of Registered Voters (19th)
Leans Republican
Historically, the statehouse delegation went Republican and the Democrats captured a majority of county government seats. This year, the Democrats lost both. One more election like this and Talbot might have to be rated Solid Republican.
Dorchester County
0.6% of Registered Voters (20th)
Split
Dorchester usually sends Republicans to the statehouse and Democrats to the county government. Democrats had a good year in 2010 despite the GOP’s wave, but it’s too soon to say that the county leans in their favor. Like Kent County, Dorchester voted for Ehrlich, Mikulski and Kratovil.
Somerset County
0.4% of Registered Voters (23rd)
Split
Republican candidates do better at the top of the ticket and Democrats do better for county offices. In the last three cycles, the Democrats had 8-5 margins for county seats. Somerset is another county that voted for Ehrlich, Mikulski and Kratovil.
Wicomico County
1.6% of Registered Voters (15th)
Leans Republican
Most Republicans win here, but the success of a few prominent Democrats like County Executive Rick Pollitt and Delegates Norman Conway and Rudolph Cane prevent us from classifying this jurisdiction as Solid Republican.
Worcester County
1.0% of Registered Voters (17th)
Leans Republican
Like several other Eastern Shore counties, Worcester has tended to vote for Republicans for state office and Democrats for county office. But this year, the GOP won five of seven County Commission seats and voters supported both Eric Wargotz and Andy Harris. That puts Worcester in the Republicans’ corner for now.
We’ll summarize all of our results tomorrow.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Party Performance in Baltimore County, Harford County and the Upper Shore
How do the parties do in Baltimore County, Harford and the upper shore?
Baltimore County
14.2% of Registered Voters (3rd)
Leans Democrat
Republicans win seats in the districts Baltimore County shares with Carroll County (Legislative District 5) and Harford County (Legislative District 7). Otherwise, Democrats win most of the time, especially in districts that border the city. The fact that Governor Martin O’Malley almost defeated former Baltimore County Congressman Bob Ehrlich here this year says something about this jurisdiction. Here’s another fact: in the 54 years that the County Executive office has been in existence, the GOP has occupied it in just eight years. And one of those occupants was Spiro Agnew.
Harford County
4.3% of Registered Voters (7th)
Solid Republican
Harford has largely completed a transition to GOP control that took about twenty-five years. The Democrats did not bother to run candidates for County Executive or a majority of County Council seats this year. All three Senators and seven of eight Delegates are Republicans.
Cecil County
1.7% of Registered Voters (12th)
Solid Republican
Cecil is a rare GOP success story in Maryland. Eight years ago, most of its elected officials were Democrats. This year, voters supported just three Democrats: Delegate David Rudolph, the county’s Register of Wills and one Judge of the Orphans’ Court. (Unopposed Attorney General Doug Gansler is the fourth Democratic “win.”) Can the GOP learn anything from Harford and Cecil Counties that could help it build strength in the rest of the state?
Kent County
0.4% of Registered Voters (24th)
Split
Kent County, the smallest jurisdiction in Maryland, goes both ways. Its District 36 statehouse delegation is totally Republican. Its county government is dominated by Democrats. Kent voted for Ehrlich but also voted for Mikulski and Kratovil this year – an unusual combination.
Queen Anne’s County
0.9% of Registered Voters (18th)
Solid Republican
The only Democrats who won this year in Queen Anne’s were the Register of Wills, the State’s Attorney and Gansler. The latter two ran unopposed. The GOP had just one seat on the County Commission in 2006. This year they swept all five.
We’ll look at the Central and Lower Eastern Shore tomorrow.
Tuesday, November 09, 2010
Party Performance in Western Maryland
Welcome to rural and mountainous Western Maryland, a region almost as unfriendly to Democrats as is Baltimore City to Republicans.
Frederick County
4.0% of Registered Voters (8th)
Solid Republican
Shifting voter registrations have caused some to believe that Frederick is trending Democratic. Not so fast. The Democrats had only three wins here this year: Ron Young’s narrow defeat of Senator Alex Mooney, Delegate Galen Clagett’s reelection and Doug Gansler’s unopposed candidacy. The third “win” doesn’t really count and Mike Miller had to invest tens of thousands of dollars in negative mail to take down Mooney. The GOP won every County Commission election and the Democrats did not come close. Even the City of Frederick, the most Democratic area in the county, has a Republican Mayor. The Democrats may have to redistrict a piece of Montgomery County, maybe Clarksburg, into Young’s district to save his seat.
Carroll County
3.0% of Registered Voters (9th)
Solid Republican
William Donald Schaefer (running for Comptroller in 2002) and Doug Gansler (running unopposed for Attorney General this year) are the only Democrats to score wins here in the last three cycles.
Washington County
2.4% of Registered Voters (11th)
Solid Republican
The only Democrats who won state or county office here in 2010 are Gansler, Delegate John Donoghue, the Treasurer and the Clerk of the Circuit Court (who both ran unopposed), the Register of Wills and the Sheriff. The GOP controls both the state delegation and the county government. The voters even elected this guy to a Delegate seat. Frederick Democratic Senator-elect Ron Young will represent a small piece of the county in Annapolis.
Allegany County
1.2% of Registered Voters (16th)
Solid Republican
Delegate Kevin Kelly will be the county’s only Democratic elected officeholder this term.
Garrett County
0.5% of Registered Voters (21st)
Solid Republican
The only ways for a Democrat to win here might be to run unopposed (as did Gansler) or for the Republican candidate to die right before the election. That actually happened this year and the GOP still won with a write-in candidate.
There is no question that the Republicans thoroughly dominate Western Maryland. The problem is that its five counties only account for 11% of the state’s registered voters – just slightly more than Baltimore City. The GOP needs to add a lot more reliable areas before it can be truly competitive on a statewide level.
We’ll look at Baltimore and Harford Counties and the upper Eastern Shore tomorrow.
Monday, November 08, 2010
Party Performance in Central and Southern Maryland
Last week, we analyzed Republican electoral performance in Maryland’s three Democratic strongholds: Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. The conventional wisdom is that while the Democrats always carry those counties, the GOP carries the rest of the state. But is that really true? We will look at GOP performance in state and county elections in the state’s other twenty-one jurisdictions this week to find out.
A note on methodology. We use two measures for party performance over the last three cycles. One is the average vote percentage earned by Republican candidates running in the county. Unopposed candidates and races without full tickets (for example, a Delegate race in which one party fields less than a full slate) do not count. Statewide candidate performances do count. The other measure is the number of Democratic and Republican wins in a district. If a candidate in a multi-county district wins the county but loses the entire district, that still counts as a win. Unopposed candidates do count on this measure. Based on these two criteria in 2002, 2006 and 2010 general elections, we evaluate whether each county is solid for one party, leans to one party or is evenly split.
Anne Arundel County
9.5% of Registered Voters (5th)
Split
This is the most competitive jurisdiction in the state. Both parties have districts where they are strong. Some districts (like Speaker Mike Busch’s District 30) are places where either party can win. The state delegation currently has three Democratic Senators, two Republican Senators, seven Democratic Delegates and eight Republican Delegates. The County Council has three Democrats and four Republicans. Anne Arundel Republicans are diverse, including relative moderates like Delegates Steve Schuh and Bob Costa and conservatives like Delegates Don Dwyer and Tony McConkey.
Howard County
5.1% of Registered Voters (6th)
Leans Democrat
Howard is politically split between its eastern and southern region (along I-95) and its northern region (along I-70). The former area elects Democrats to the County Council and the delegation whereas the latter area elects Republicans. Because most of the county’s population lives near I-95 and the majority of its districts are in that area, Democrats hold most of the elected offices.
Calvert County
1.6% of Registered Voters (14th)
Leans Republican
This county was evenly split before 2010, when the GOP grabbed the upper hand. Most GOP candidates won majorities here. The only reason some of the Democratic state legislators were reelected is because they share districts with Prince George’s and Saint Mary’s Counties. Democratic Delegate Sue Kullen, the only legislator whose district is entirely inside the county, was defeated by a Republican. The GOP also won all five seats on the County Commission. Look for the Democrats to prevent the creation of any more all-Calvert legislative districts in redistricting.
Charles County
2.6% of Registered Voters (10th)
Solid Democrat
Charles is Maryland’s fastest growing jurisdiction and one of its most Democratic. Eight years ago, the county was split between the parties, but that has changed along with mass emigration from the Washington suburbs. Republicans narrowly won the county’s small piece of Legislative District 29 but still lost overall. The county no longer has any GOP officeholders. Charles’s population growth will give it at least one Delegate seat in redistricting, and it will almost certainly be occupied by a Democrat.
Saint Mary’s County
1.7% of Registered Voters (13th)
Split
Saint Mary’s used to lean Democratic but is now evenly split. It has a Democratic Senator, two Democratic Delegates and one Republican Delegate (House Minority Leader Tony O’Donnell). Four of its five County Commission Members are Republicans. Democratic Senator Roy Dyson and Democratic Delegate John Wood, both veterans, won reelection by tiny margins.
We’ll look at Western Maryland tomorrow.
Thursday, November 04, 2010
Republican Performance in the Democratic Big Three
Following are the percentages gained by Republican candidates in Baltimore City, Montgomery County and Prince George's County since 2002. Races with no GOP candidate or with incomplete tickets are not included. Together, these three jurisdictions accounted for 42% of Maryland's registered voters in 2010.
Montgomery County: The great GOP tidal wave of 2010 caused an average Republican gain of 2.9 points in MoCo. No Republicans were elected in 2006. No Republicans were elected in 2010. (The county does have six precincts in Congressional District 6 that vote for Republican Roscoe Bartlett.)
Prince George's County: The Republicans' vote percentage has declined steadily since 2002. They did not bother to contest the majority of elections in the county in 2010.
Baltimore City: Just as in Prince George's, the GOP's performance is so poor that they often do not bother running candidates in Baltimore City. And the chart below does not include the Republicans' losses in city government races, which are held in odd-numbered years.
Here is the GOP's record in the three Democratic strongholds together.
How are the Republicans supposed to compete statewide if they cede these three jurisdictions to the Democrats?
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Democrats Lead in Early Voting - Without MoCo and Baltimore
Democrats performed better in early voting than Republicans despite subpar turnouts in Montgomery County and Baltimore City.
Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by party.
The Republicans' early voting matched their voter registration percentage. The Democrats beat their registration percentage by 7.5 points.
One reason for the Democrats' advantage would be if their party organizations in their three strongholds - Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's Counties - aggressively turned out early votes. But that has not been the case. Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by county.
Prince George's County was the only jurisdiction in the Democrats' Big Three to beat their registration percentage in early voting. Both Baltimore and MoCo, and the Big Three together, lagged.
So the Democrats beat the GOP in early voting mostly by relying on party members outside their strongholds. That should be an encouraging sign for Martin O'Malley.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
McDonald's Owner: Want a Raise? Vote Republican
The Cleveland Plain Dealer and the Huffington Post are reporting that an Ohio McDonald's franchise owner enclosed the following flyer in employees' pay envelopes telling them that his ability to provide raises depends on them voting for "the right people." According to him, the "right people" are the GOP's candidates for Governor, Senate and the U.S. House. The McDonald's owner has since apologized for his "error in judgment."
Monday, October 25, 2010
Republican House Candidate Proposes Tattoos for HIV Victims
Republican House candidate Neil Parrott (2B) of Hagerstown once wrote the Herald-Mail proposing that HIV victims get tattoos marking their status. He even advocated that victims receive medicine only after getting the tattoos. Here's an excerpt from his letter to the editor:
It is time to take the threat of HIV seriously. A compassionate and serious solution must preserve the dignity of those infected while truly helping to prevent the spread of the disease in an effective way.
One such solution is a tattoo for those who are infected. This mark could be inconspicuously placed, perhaps in a spot covered by a bathing suit, warning only those who might engage in intimate encounters with the infected person.
An effective way to enforce the consistency of the tattoo would be to provide medicine to the infected individual only after they have received the HIV tattoo.
Sunday, October 10, 2010
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
Why Incumbents Lose, Part Two
Incumbents don’t go down very often, but they do go down. Of the last 126 races in which an incumbent ran in Montgomery County, 17 lost. Why do they lose their seats? We took a shot at answering that question, aided by some of our shrewdest and trustiest spies.
Partisan Races
As recently as the 1990s, the GOP was a viable minority party in Montgomery County. They tended to be concentrated in the western and northern areas, primarily in Council Districts 1 and 2 and Legislative Districts 14, 15 and 39, and were even able to elect some candidates there.
Council District 1 (Bethesda-Chevy Chase-Potomac) was represented by Republicans Betty Ann Krahnke and Howard Denis for its first sixteen years of existence. Both were supported by crossover Democrats who only came home when Roger Berliner defeated Denis in 2006. Council District 2’s (Upcounty) Nancy Dacek held on for three terms until she was defeated in 2002 by Mike Knapp, a moderate Democrat with business experience.
State District 14 was split with Howard County and had two subdistricts for Delegates, only one of which was wholly inside Montgomery. In 1994, its delegation was entirely Republican. In 2002, it was redistricted out of Howard and entirely into Montgomery and its delegation went totally Democratic.
State District 15 was once the most competitive district in Montgomery. Its Senate seat changed hands from Democrat Larry Levitan to Republican Jean Roesser in 1994, and then to Democrat Rob Garagiola in 2002. Republican Delegate Richard LaVay did not run for reelection in 2002 and Republican Delegate Jean Cryor was defeated by Democrat Craig Rice in 2006, completing the district’s transition to all-Democratic.
State District 39 was first created as an all-Montgomery district in 1994 with its area extending all the way to the Frederick County border. It initially had an all-Republican delegation. But Senator P.J. Hogan later switched his party affiliation to Democrat and the Republican Delegates were defeated in 1998. The district’s restructuring to a “C” configuration around Gaithersburg and Rockville took out some of its GOP voters and helps it remain Democratic today.
Seven of the seventeen incumbents who have lost since 1994 were Republicans who were defeated by Democrats, and one more (Levitan) was a Democrat who was defeated by a Republican. Since the GOP is almost extinct in Montgomery County, this form of competition to incumbents has been eliminated.
We’ll look at another reason why incumbents lose in Part Three.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
The GOP’s Lost Opportunity
First there were the bank bailouts. Next there was cap and trade. Next there was the government’s takeover of General Motors. And then came health care. And the tea parties. And rising numbers of endangered Democrats in Congress. And the much-hyped return of former Governor Bob Ehrlich to run in a rematch against Martin O’Malley. On top of all of that, there is the wretched state of the economy. It has been a LONG time since the Republicans have had this much to work with. So you would think that the Maryland GOP would be seeing lots of growth, right?
You’d be wrong. The Maryland Republican Party is shrinking.
Following are voter registration counts by party as of the last five general elections, plus March 2010.
Since the election of Barack Obama as President and all of the ensuing events above, the Democrats have lost 13,801 registered voters, or 0.7% of their party. The Republicans have lost 24,292 registered voters, or 2.6% of their party. All others, most of whom are unaffiliated voters, have grown by 13,882 (2.5%).
Voter registration is driven by two things: presidential elections and presidential performance. Below are comparative counts by party since 2000.
Three spikes in all categories are obvious: the 2000, 2004 and 2008 general elections. But there are also smaller changes that occur in the interims. For example, the Democrats added an average 11,364 voters per month between November 2007 and August 2008 before adding 35,549 voters in September 2008 and 91,167 in October 2008. Dissatisfaction with George W. Bush helped Maryland Democrats build their party. But dissatisfaction with Barack Obama has not helped Maryland Republicans build theirs.
As a result, the GOP’s percentage of registered voters is the lowest in at least ten years. (The State Board of Elections’ published monthly data goes back only through 2000.) Their registration percentage has slid from a recent high of 30.1% in May 2004 to 26.5% in March 2010.
If Obama’s problems are boosting anyone’s numbers, it may be small parties and unaffiliated voters. In January 2000, there were 2.38 Republicans for every one of these voters. In March 2010, there were 1.58 Republicans for every one of these voters.
Much has been written about the Maryland GOP’s failure to raise money, which is certainly a problem. The state party reported $142.56 on hand in state funds in January and $28,144 on hand in federal funds at the end of March. But the party’s failure to grow in the face of such grand opportunity may be an even bigger problem. When will another Great Recession emerge? When will a conservative movement resembling the Tea Party spontaneously form again?
If the GOP cannot grow under these conditions, when will it ever grow?
