Over the last week, we have looked at the performance of the Maryland Republican Party in the Democratic Big Three jurisdictions; Central and Southern Maryland; Western Maryland; Baltimore and Harford Counties and the Upper Eastern Shore; and the Central and Lower Eastern Shore. We considered voting percentages and win rates in federal, state and county elections. We did not emphasize voter registration by party because Maryland has lots of crossover voters.
What does it all mean together?
Here is the status of party competition in each of Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions.
And here is a summary.
The Democrats can compete, build their bench and regenerate their ranks in every region of the state except Western Maryland. They start every statewide election with a geographic edge accounting for 45% of Maryland voters. The GOP cannot compete in three of the state’s four largest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and in the state’s fastest-growing county (Charles). Additionally, the Republicans have significant problems in the third-largest county (Baltimore) and the sixth-largest county (Howard). The broadest definition of geographic influence for the Republicans gives them a starting position of less than one-quarter of Maryland’s voters.
This math does not work for the GOP. If current conditions continue, they will not be able to compete on a statewide basis. They have to turn quite a few more counties their way or face the reality of minority status – forever.
Friday, November 12, 2010
Party Performance by County: Summary
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Baltimore Mayor Condemns Robocalls Intended to Suppress Turnout (Updated)
The following news release from the Maryland Democrats quotes Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake as denouncing robocalls made in the city that were intended to suppress voter turnout.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 2, 2010 7:00PM
RAWLINGS-BLAKE DENOUNCES MISLEADING ROBO CALLS INTENDED TO SUPRESS VOTER TURNOUT IN BALTIMORE CITY
BALTIMORE - Tonight, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake denounced a serious of misleading automated phone calls intended to suppress democratic voter turnout by targeting Baltimore City residents. The call urges voters to “relax” and stay home because “President Obama and Governor O’Malley have been successful” even before the polls officially close at 8:00pm.
“I was deeply troubled to hear this misleading robo call targeting Baltimore City residents urging them to relax and stay home as if the the election was over and the polls have been closed,” Rawlings-Blake said. “Sadly, this kind of gutter politics that we have come to expect from Bob Ehrlich and the Republican Party. In 2006, Bob Ehrlich’s campaign distributed intentionally false and misleading fliers intended to confuse minority voters and today they’ve reached a new low.”
TRANSCRIPT OF AUTOMATED CALL
Woman’s Voice: “I’m calling to let everyone know that Governor O’Malley and President Obama have been successful. Our Goals have been met. The Polls were correct… and we’re ok. Relax, everything is fine. They only thing left is to watch on TV tonight.
Congratulations and Thank you.”
###
Update: WBAL-TV has more.
Democrats Lead in Early Voting - Without MoCo and Baltimore
Democrats performed better in early voting than Republicans despite subpar turnouts in Montgomery County and Baltimore City.
Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by party.
The Republicans' early voting matched their voter registration percentage. The Democrats beat their registration percentage by 7.5 points.
One reason for the Democrats' advantage would be if their party organizations in their three strongholds - Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's Counties - aggressively turned out early votes. But that has not been the case. Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by county.
Prince George's County was the only jurisdiction in the Democrats' Big Three to beat their registration percentage in early voting. Both Baltimore and MoCo, and the Big Three together, lagged.
So the Democrats beat the GOP in early voting mostly by relying on party members outside their strongholds. That should be an encouraging sign for Martin O'Malley.
Monday, November 01, 2010
How Many Democrats Will Vote for Ehrlich?
Tomorrow’s gubernatorial contest between Bob Ehrlich and Martin O’Malley will depend on two things: turnout and the percentage of Democrats voting for Ehrlich. We’ll address turnout in tomorrow’s election forecast. Today, we’ll focus on Ehrlich Democrats.
Bob Ehrlich, and any statewide candidate, needs to have Democratic votes to win. That’s because of the Democrats’ immense edge in voter registration. Democrats account for 56.4% of all voters eligible to vote in the general election, a percentage that has changed little in the last decade. Republicans account for 26.7% of all voters eligible to vote in the general election, down from 30.1% in May 2004.
How many Democrats are willing to vote for Ehrlich? Let’s look at the history of polling in the three gubernatorial races in which Ehrlich has participated. Not all polls release cross-tabulations, and many of the older ones are no longer online, but this is our best shot at a roundup.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2002 Cycle
Gonzales, September 2001: 11%
Gonzales/Arscott, January 2002: 16%
Gonzales, July 2002: 18%
Gonzales, August 2002: 21%
Gonzales, September 2002: 24%
Gonzales, October 2002: 25%
Survey USA, November 2002: 29%
Ehrlich, who was then a Baltimore County Congressman, started this race with less name recognition than Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. But as the election season went on, his poll numbers went up – driven largely by steady gains among Democrats. The last Survey USA result, taken 48 hours before the election, reflects the current conventional wisdom that Ehrlich can win with 30% support among Democrats. Ehrlich defeated Townsend by 3.9 points.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2006 Cycle
Gonzales, April 2006: 16%
Survey USA, September 2006: 16%
Survey USA, October 2006: 16%
Survey USA, November 2006: 18%
CNN Exit Poll, November 2006: 15%
Ehrlich stayed in the mid-teens among Democrats for most of the election season. Given that performance, he was unable to close the gap against Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley even with decent job approval ratings. O’Malley defeated Ehrlich by 6.5 points.
Percentage of Democrats Supporting Ehrlich, 2010 Cycle
Gonzales, January 2010: 16%
Magellan, July 2010: 25%
Public Policy Polling, July 2010: 21%
Gonzales, July 2010: 19%
Washington Post, September 2010: 10%
Gonzales, October 2010: 17%
Baltimore Sun, October 2010: 17%
Washington Post, October 2010: 7%
Two polls in July showed Ehrlich breaking 20% among Democrats. The Public Policy Polling survey showed Ehrlich trailing O’Malley by three points and claiming 21% support among Democrats. The Magellan poll showed him with a three-point edge over O’Malley and 25% support among Democrats. (It’s worth noting that Magellan works primarily for Republicans.) Since then, five polls have shown Ehrlich’s Democratic support varying between 7% and 19%. That’s in the neighborhood of his losing reelection campaign in 2006.
But 2010 is a wave year for the GOP. Can Ehrlich make it up in Republican turnout? We’ll find out tomorrow.
Tuesday, October 05, 2010
President Obama in Bowie (Updated)
President Obama is appearing with Maryland's elected leaders in Bowie on Thursday afternoon. Here are the details.
What: Rally with President Barack Obama, Governor Martin O'Malley, Senator Barbara Mikulski, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Congresswoman Donna Edwards, and Congressman Chris Van Hollen
Where: Bowie State University, 14000 Jericho Park Road, Bowie, Maryland 20715
When: Thursday, October 7th, Doors open: 1:00 p.m.
http://md.barackobama.com/BowieRally
The event is free and open to the public. Tickets are not required, but an RSVP is encouraged. Space is available on a first-come, first-served basis.
Carpooling and use of public transportation is encouraged -- the MARC Bowie stop is just steps from the rally. For security reasons, please avoid bringing bags to the rally if at all possible -- you should expect airport-like security. No signs, banners, or laptops are permitted.
Update: Following is the transportation and parking info.
TRANSPORTATION
It is strongly advised that visitors take the MARC train or WMATA (Metro) buses to the rally. The MARC Penn line and MetroBus lines B21, B22 and B27 go directly to the Bowie State campus. Click here for more information on bus and train transportation to the rally
There will be parking at the Bowie Race Track. Please note this will be the ONLY off-site event parking. There will be NO PARKING AVAILABLE ON THE BOWIE STATE CAMPUS
SCHEDULE
Parking lot will open at 10:00 am
Shuttle buses to the venue will begin at 10:30 am
Gates will open at 12:30 pm
Program begins approximately 2:00 pm
DIRECTIONS
From route 50 east or west
Take exit 11 to Route 197 north
Turn right on Old Chapel Road and follow to the end
Turn left on Race Track Rd.
Follow signs to parking lot
Shuttle buses will take you to the event
From 295 (Baltimore Washington Pkwy)
Take exit 11 Route 197 south
Pass Bowie state university
Go left on Old Chapel Road and follow to the end
Turn left on Race Track Rd.
Follow signs to parking lot
Shuttle busses will take you to the event
THE ONLY PARKING WILL BE AT THIS LOT THERE IS NO PARKING AVAILABLE ON CAMPUS
No banners. No large bags. No sticks. No liquids. No metal bottles.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Pucker Up! (Updated)
Last night saw the county Democrats’ traditional post-primary Kiss and Make Up Party. And boy, there was a whole lot of kissing up going on!
Dems gather to listen to fighting words from the Mighty Babs!
The purpose of the Kiss and Make Up Party is to recover from the heated rivalry of the primaries and to unite for the general election. Food, gossip and deal-cutting are just bonuses, as are the opportunities to rub shoulders with dignitaries like the Governor.
It’s easy for the primary winners to show up for such things. Successful candidates love to bask in glory and be told what wonderful races they ran, whether such races were truly wonderful or not. But the real credit belongs to those who did not win and still showed up. The natural instinct for anyone who loses an election is to curl up in the bedroom and not come out. But those who lost and still came were welcomed with extra warmth. Your author heard not a single cross word exchanged – only well wishes and relief for the end of primary season. In fact, all the candidates were repeatedly feted by the speakers whether they won or lost. Even Amy Yockus Hartman, Nancy King’s fearsome campaign manager, cheerfully welcomed your author when she could have easily welcomed yours truly with a sharp object instead. If we had known she was such a sweet thing, we would not have been so mean to her on the blog!
Cheryl Kagan – this bunny just keeps on hopping!
Let’s recognize the courageous and gracious candidates who came to the event despite not winning their primaries. They included:
Ilaya Hopkins (Council District 1)
Sharon Dooley (Council District 2)
Jane de Winter (Council At-Large)
Peter Dennis (District 16 House)
Bill Farley (District 16 House)
Scott Goldberg (District 16 House)
Craig Herskowitz (District 16 House)
Hrant Jamgochian (District 16 House)
Kyle Lierman (District 16 House)
From left to right: District 16’s Craig Herskowitz, Bill Farley, Bill Frick, Scott Goldberg, Ariana Kelly, Peter Dennis, Susan Lee, Kyle Lierman and Hrant Jamgochian.
Cheryl Kagan (District 17 Senate)
Mike Heney (District 18 House)
Hoan Dang (District 19 House)
Jay Hutchins (District 19 House)
Tony Puca (District 39 House)
District 19 House candidates Jay Hutchins and Hoan Dang.
So who did not attend? More than the party would like to admit! But these people were notably absent.
Council Member Duchy Trachtenberg
Council District 2 candidate Royce Hanson
Senator Rona Kramer (D-14)
Vanessa Atterbeary (D-18 House candidate)
Dana Beyer (D-18 House candidate)
Senator Mike Lenett (D-19)
Senate challenger Saqib Ali (D-39)
One wag noted of Atterbeary, “She wants to preserve her perfect record of never coming to a party event.” Meeoow!
Everybody shut up! Pete Franchot is talking, dammit!
Aside from all the food, hand-shaking, gabbing and wine-guzzling, there was one serious undertone to the gathering. MoCo’s abysmal primary turnout is clearly worrisome to the state Democrats. They are nervous about what that means for the general election between Governor O’Malley and his predecessor, former Governor Bob Ehrlich. It’s unlikely that any Kiss and Make Up party can fix that issue. But the Democrats had better find some way to deal with it, because otherwise, the next Kiss and Make Up event will include the GOP.
Update: We hear that District 14 House candidate Gerald Roper and District 16 House candidate Charlie Chester showed up too.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Kiss and Make-Up Party Set for Tomorrow Night
The Woman’s Suburban Democratic Club has scheduled its regular post-primary Kiss and Make-Up Party for tomorrow night, at which winning and losing candidates are expected to unite for the good of the party. Given the unusually nasty races this year, it will be fascinating to see who shows up and who stays home! Following is the announcement.
Woman’s Suburban Democratic Club Invites you to its quadrennial Post-Primary
“KISS AND MAKE-UP” PARTY
Thursday, September 16, 6:30 – 8:30 pm.
A Montgomery County Democratic Tradition!
Hilton Hotel
1750 Rockville Pike
Across the street from the Twinbrook Red Line Metro Station
Free Parking
Join us – and bring your friends, your precinct chairs, your spouses, your campaign workers, and your Democratic opponent!!
Cost: $15 per person in advance; $20, at the door.
Mail your check to WSDC, c/o Judith Heimann, 6900 Marbury Road, Bethesda, MD 20817 or pay online at www.MCWSDC.org
Fee includes light refreshments.
Cash Bar
www.MCWSDC.org
Thursday, June 03, 2010
Embracing Diversity
By Marc Korman.
For the past few years, I have wondered how the Republican Party could continue to become straighter, whiter, and more male and continue to exist. Instead of embracing America’s growing diversity, my view is that Republicans have, broadly speaking, chosen to reject it. Happily for my preferred politics, the Maryland Democratic Party has taken the opposite route.
The Maryland Democratic Party recently founded Diversity Leadership Councils, with a specific goal of reaching out to and organizing particular communities such as African American, Latino, and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI). I had the opportunity to attend an AAPI Council meeting recently and saw the great potential for this type of organizing.
The AAPI community is represented in the legislature by four Delegates: Kumar Barve, Susan Lee, Saqib Ali, and Kris Valderrama. There are at least three other AAPI Democratic candidates running in 2010 including Sam Arora and Hoan Dang in District 19 and Neeta Datt in District 14.
According to the AAPI Leadership Council, there are approximately 300,000 Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders in Maryland, about 5.2% of the population. About a quarter are Indian, a bit less than that Chinese, and also significant populations of Koreans, Filipinos, and Vietnamese. Of these, about 85,000 have been identified as current voters.
Nationally, Asian Americans have been moving in the Democrats’ direction, though definitions can be a little tricky because not all exit polling for “Asian Americans” necessarily includes all of the countries the AAPI Council encompasses. In 1992, George H.W. Bush received 62% of the Asian American vote. By 2004, his son George W. Bush received just 44%. John McCain saw his share of the vote decline to just 35%.
The impact of these voters is a bit harder to identify in Maryland. In 2006, CNN exit polling listed Asians as 2% of the total vote in Maryland but did not break down how they voted due to the small number involved.
The AAPI Leadership Council is working to increase those numbers as well as the profile of those already voting, contributing, and participating. They have organized themselves entirely with volunteers into committees for membership, communications, finance, and grassroots organizing. Their goal is to not just bring out their community for candidates with their own backgrounds, but to support Democrats in general.
The two issues I heard the most about at the meeting I attended were small business and education. Many participants said the reasons they or their families moved to Montgomery County was the schools. That is pretty consistent with every other population group in the area.
Adam recently wrote about the GOP’s “lost opportunity.” Their failure to embrace diversity is a big part of that. Embracing diversity does not just mean nominating some diverse candidates, which to the Republicans’ credit they did with Michael Steele. It means engaging diverse communities at the grassroots level. The AAPI Leadership Council and the other similar Councils the Maryland Democratic Party has established are doing just that.
Full Disclosure, I am a Maryland Democratic Party Committee Member.
Monday, May 10, 2010
The MSM: Mouthpieces of the State Democrats
The state Democrats are totally winning the negative propaganda war in the Maryland Governor’s race and their mouthpieces are none other than the “objective” mainstream media (MSM). Here’s why.
The easiest thing to cover in politics is the horse race. It involves no research or perspective. There is little work. The candidates write the stories for the journalists, who merely transcribe them. There is non-stop content. Minimal writing skills are required. That is playing out in Maryland right now. And the real author of much of the state’s political coverage is effectively the Maryland Democratic Party.
Just look at what has been written over the last three months. When the Dems complained to the FCC about Bob Ehrlich’s on-air promotion of a client, the Post and Sun carried it immediately. When the Dems complained to the State Board of Elections about Ehrlich’s use of his law firm employees for campaign purposes, the Sun ran it on the same day and followed up soon after. When the Dems protested Ehrlich’s radio show, the Post picked it up. And when the Dems pointed to a trailer about a movie on disgraced former lobbyist Jack Abramoff that included one quick snapshot of Abramoff and Ehrlich, the Post and Sun jumped on it. Forget the fact that Ehrlich was never charged, or even named as an unindicted co-conspirator, in the corruption scandal.
None of this has anything to do with the candidates’ records or what either of them would do in the next term. Ironically, when the Post grumbled that the Governor’s race pitted “Mr. Duck vs. Mr. Dodge,” they missed the obvious point that the MSM’s fixation with horse race coverage was actually allowing the candidates to run substance-free campaigns. For example, has any reporter really pressed Ehrlich on how he would pay down the state budget deficit while cutting the sales tax? Has any reporter really pressed Martin O’Malley on how he would pay down the deficit without a big tax hike? Has anyone in the MSM asked either candidate how he would pay for needed transportation projects? And has anyone in the MSM pressed either candidate to lay out a governing vision for the next four years? Horse race coverage is lots of fun and has its place, but should it be an outright substitute for factual examination of the candidates’ records and positions?
Our intention is not to criticize the state Democrats. They are running an aggressive, humorous and wicked propaganda operation against Ehrlich – which is, after all, their job. The state Republicans have a broken party apparatus with no money, little staff and no creativity, so it is their own fault that they are getting outplayed by the Dems. The best anti-O’Malley propaganda appears on blogs like Red Maryland, but since they are merely blogs, they are ignored by MSM reporters who concentrate only on “official” sources like the state parties. Advantage: Democrats. Don’t the reporters know they are getting used?
And so few pieces like Gazette reporter Sean Sedam’s careful look at the race - which includes a genuine examination of some aspects of the candidates’ records – have appeared in either the Post or the Sun. For the most part, both papers are too busy focusing on the state Dems’ latest pokes at Ehrlich to care about anything substantive. This is a great victory for Martin O’Malley and his party, but it is a great loss for real journalism.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Dems Needle Ehrlich Again
The State Democrats’ spanking of former Governor Bob Ehrlich continues with this seriously snarky advice to reporters on what they should be asking him at his campaign announcement tomorrow. Following is their latest broadside.
###
Six questions we hope reporters ask Bob Ehrlich at his third campaign announcement.
As Bob Ehrlich holds his third campaign announcement tomorrow there are several questions that remain unanswered about his candidacy. We’ve put together a list of a few that we hope reporters will ask him.
1) What do you think of the job Michael Steele is doing at the RNC? Have you asked your Lt. Gov. to campaign for you?
2) What are your responsibilities as a leader of the China Practice for Womble Carlyle?
3) Do you consider yourself a Tea Party Republican?
4) You have clients that have accepted federal Government TARP or Stimulus funds. Did you advise them to take those funds? Do you support their decision?
5) Will you disclose how much you are paid by Womble Carlyle? Or how much you and Kendel are paid by WBAL?
6) Do you promise to refrain from the controversial tactics your campaign used at the end of the 2006 race? We’re referring specifically to your campaign busing in homeless from Philadelphia to distribute fake endorsement literature in African-American Communities.
Editor’s Note: Here is that fake lit.
There are clearly many more questions that could and should be asked but we know Bob Ehrlich isn’t exactly the most forthcoming person.
###
Thursday, April 01, 2010
Democrats Preview Anti-Ehrlich Message with Push Poll
The Maryland Democrats have released the results of a poll they conducted of 400 likely GOP primary voters of their opinions and voting intentions in their primary. The Democrats have shown that quite a few Republicans are iffy on Ehrlich at best. But the real value of the poll is that it outlines how the Democratic attack strategy can yield at least some success with voters.
The poll’s voting sample was 400 Republican voters, 94% of whom said they were certain to vote in the Republican primary. At the poll’s outset, 59% of them said they would vote for Ehrlich and 31% said they preferred “another Republican candidate.” Then the Dems asked their sample the following questions:Q6. Now I’m going to read you some things you might learn about Bob Ehrlich and his record. After each item, please tell me if you feel much less likely to support Bob Ehrlich, somewhat less likely to support Bob Ehrlich, or if it makes no difference to you either way?
The push questions resulted in a loss of Ehrlich’s primary voting percentage of fourteen points among Republicans, from 59% to 45%.
Bob Ehrlich was the biggest-spending governor in Maryland history, and in his last budget he proposed the LARGEST-EVER increase in state spending.
Much less likely to support: 17%
Somewhat less likely to support: 19%
No difference either way: 58%
Not sure: 6%
Q7. Bob Ehrlich has spent the last three year working as a lobbyist for state contractors, gaming interests, and foreign governments like China.
Much less likely to support: 20%
Somewhat less likely to support: 11%
Makes no difference either way: 63%
Not sure: 6%
Q8. As governor, Bob Ehrlich raised taxes and fees by $3 billion, including raising state property taxes. He authored and supported numerous tax increases that have added up to tens of billions of dollars.
Much less likely to support: 23%
Somewhat less likely to support: 17%
Makes no difference: 56%
Not Sure: 4%
Q9. Based on what we have discussed, in the REPUBLICAN primary election for governor, do you think you will support Bob Ehrlich, or is there a chance you could support another Republican candidate?
Ehrlich: 45%
Someone Else: 47%
Not sure: 9%
One of the reasons for this poll may be to encourage a credible Republican to run against Ehrlich in the primary, thereby creating a George Owings-type distraction. If that is the purpose, the Democrats should stop dreaming. No serious Republican believes Ehrlich can be defeated in their party’s primary. And in the general election, the GOP will definitely come out strong for Ehrlich. That is because many Republicans will actually be voting against Barack Obama when they pull the lever for Ehrlich. No messaging of any kind from O’Malley or the Democrats can overcome Republican hostility to the President.
But strong Republican turnout will not be enough for Ehrlich to win. Given the voting patterns in the state, he also needs a sizable majority of independents and at least a quarter of Democrats to defeat O’Malley. The Dems are betting that sustained attacks related to Ehrlich’s record on taxes, spending and lobbying for businesses connected to China will deprive Ehrlich of enough votes among swing groups to deliver the election to O’Malley. And the monetary advantages possessed by both O’Malley and the state party will allow them to define Ehrlich’s record before he can raise enough money to respond.
No matter which side you’re on, it’s going to be a hot summer.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Maryland Democrats Plan "Media Monitoring & Rapid Response Program"
We acquired the following email from Maryland Democratic Party Political Director David Sloan describing the party's media monitoring and outreach program this year. The program is modeled on Barack Obama's presidential campaign and may be the most sophisticated media program the state has ever seen.From: David Sloan [mailto:DSloan@mddems.org]
The email was accompanied by a 32-page Power Point presentation outlining the program for prospective participants. The rapid response teams will be comprised of volunteers working out of five regions.
Sent: Monday, February 01, 2010 1:45 PM
To: David Sloan
Cc: David Sloan
Subject: Maryland's Democratic Media Monitoring & Rapid Response Program, Almost Ready For Launch
To All,
After months of preparation and recruitment, the” Maryland Democratic Media Monitoring & Rapid Response Program” is almost ready for its launch. Working with our initiative partners, OFA and “Maryland Grass Roots Response” we’ve assembled a team of program volunteers in every region of our State, and we plan to continue recruiting.
You’ve received this email because you attended a planning meeting in you region sometime over the past few months and we’re counting you as a member of our Rapid Response team.
During the next several days you will be hearing from us about your participation in one or more of our local teams:
Volunteer Teams
1. Letter to the Editor (LTE) teams
2. Radio/TV Talk Show Call-In Teams
3. Online Article Comment Posting Teams
4. Social Media (facebook, twitter, Linkedin, etc.)
Information on additional teams to come soon
We are also still looking for individuals who would like to serve as County Leaders for this initiative (details on the role of “County Leaders” can be found in the attached document)
If you already know which team you’d like to be a part of, please reply to this e-mail with that information.
The Maryland Democratic Media Monitoring & Rapid Response Initiative will be headquartered in Annapolis and staffed by Maureen Higgins, James Bragdon and Isaac Salazar in partnership with Dennie Martin of OFA (Organizing For America) and Yvette Lewis from MD Grassroots Rapid Response along with YOU at home in your counties.
Beginning soon, Isaac Salazar, Maryland Democratic Party New Media Director will send every program volunteer weekly informational updates which will include talking points, stats and messaging on Federal, Statewide and Local Democratic Leaders and issues. These updates will be provided regularly and constantly.
Dennie Martin, Yvette Lewis and I have been traveling the state talking with volunteers, and we are close to meeting our recruitment goal as we prepare to launch the program. Your participation is critical to helping us in ensuring the program’s success. There are only 273 days until Election Day – let’s make each one count!
Please do not hesitate to contact at our office if you have any questions
David Sloan
Political Director, Maryland Democratic Party
Office 410.269.8818
Dsloan@mddems.org
County leaders will be responsible for organizing and training volunteers for membership in one of five teams:
LTE (letter to the editor) Team
Radio call-in Team
Electronic media and blog response Team
Online publication comment and posting Team
TV talk show monitoring and response Teams
Additionally, regional teams composed of county leaders "will serve as the 'crossroads' of where information is reported and received. These individuals will receive policy information, talking points & other data through the MDP communications staff – to be distributed to county rapid response and monitoring teams. These individuals will also receive information on articles, blogs or on-air segments that require a democratic response from monitoring teams in their region."
Here is what the Democratic plan says about blogs:Blogs are now mainstream and need to be monitored. If you have your own blog, use it to set the record straight for your readers. Comments: much like in online news articles, create traffic and get a bloggers attention. However, beware of becoming a “troll.” If you happen to know a Blogger, reach out to them to write a guest blog post.
In the good old days, MPW had "readers." Now we will have both "readers" and "monitors." Well, site visits are site visits! Prospective trolls out there should know that we require readers to sign their full names in our comments. And who you calling mainstream, Dems? It's not as if the Post, Gazette or Sun will ever publish a headline including the words "Pimping Castle!"
Here's a description of the day-to-day operation of the program:The MDP [Maryland Democratic Party] Communications Staff will - in collaboration with other Democratic representatives - identify needs for a media response or will proactively amplify our message as it pertains to the “news of the day” by activating one or more of following teams:
LTE (letters to the editor) Teams
Radio Call-in and TV Monitoring and Response Teams
Online Publication Comment Posting Teams
Electronic Media and Blog response Teams
MDP Communications Staff will send relevant policy information and talking points to Regional/County Leaders – who will, in turn, relay that information to our media Teams. Team members will use the information to perform their assigned task, and report any progress and action to their County Leader who will relay that information to MDP Communications Staff.
Rapid response volunteers will constantly monitor their assigned form of media. Upon the discovery of an article, blog, online publication comment(s) or radio segment that they (the team member ) believe requires a response, will immediately send an email to their County Leader who will in turn, relay the information to MDP Communications Staff.
From that point, after consultation with all appropriate parties, the MDP Communications Staff will determine whether to gather talking points and data for a response to be generated.
If a response is needed, then the process mentioned above (“From Annapolis to the ground”) will begin.
So what apppears to be spontaneous grass-roots action to casual news consumers will in fact be directed from party headquarters in Annapolis.
Look people, this is how 21st-Century political parties operate. If the Republicans had the capacity to mount this kind of operation, they would do it too. We just have two questions.
Will this procedure be used only against non-Democratic candidates? Or will the party also activate this network to protect incumbents in Democratic primaries?
Friday, January 29, 2010
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Senate Democrats Announce Legislative Agenda
The Senate Democratic Caucus has released its legislative agenda for 2010 in a press release that we reprint below. The agenda includes Delegate Kirill Reznik's (D-39) bill preventing employers from using credit scores in hiring and promotion decisions. Additionally, the Senate will adopt a rule change this week requiring that committee votes be posted on-line within ten days, matching a similar move by the House.
Monday, January 25, 2010
What does Massachusetts Mean for Maryland?
The Republicans’ win in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election has upended the nation’s capital. But what does it mean for Maryland? We convened a virtual roundtable of our savviest political spies, all of whom are knowledgeable Democrats, and their answers were brutally honest. In some cases, they were just plain brutal.
Party Activist:
Ehrlich is running. Kratovil is dead and Bartlett is sailing to reelection. Also, the long term repercussions for Van Hollen are very bad. He got into this cycle thinking it would be a small loss and now they may lose the House. If that happens, his leadership ambitions could be crippled.
Strategist:
People are angry - across the country and in Maryland. They are worried about their jobs, providing for their families and living the quality of life that they’ve become accustomed too. I don’t think it means much for O’Malley, frankly. He is a good, hard campaigner and can raise the money to win. The problem is for our down ticket races, where the public has bought into the national hype of bloated government that overspends and has forgotten that their schools, community centers, roads and parks are funded by government. State government is the redheaded stepchild because people don’t know what State government does for them. People forget that the State provides significant funding for schools and roads and hospitals - the services that support their everyday lives and their communities.
In the end, the Tea Party candidates are a referendum on the Republican Party. The Republicans aren’t providing the Tea Partiers with what they want and need in a political party, so they have become a spin-off. No Tea Party member is a liberal that would vote for a Democrat. Yet, the Republican Party is attempting to co-opt their anger in order to advance their own political agenda and, by inference, continue the two-party system - essentially the opposite of the roots of the Tea Party movement. (A side note - the head of Maryland AFP is a former Ehrlich campaign guy.)
So, many Senators, Delegates, County Commissioners and Council Members will have more difficult races because (1) people assign the hype of federal big government and national overspending to all Democrats by inference, regardless of how conservative or liberal they may be and (2) Democrats don’t boil their positions down to soundbites - a great talent of the Republicans - because government is more complicated than soundbites and (3) people have forgotten that government does actually do good things for their families and communities.
But that doesn’t work well in elections.
Elected Official:
Nobody owns their seat.
Elected Official:
It increases the likelihood of Ehrlich jumping into the Governor’s race which, in turn, increases the likelihood of down-ticket, on-the-fence, serious, Republican state legislative candidates jumping into various key races around the state.
Elected Official:
I predict Maryland Democrats will hear the wake-up call from Massachusetts, invest in good polling, and respond to voters more wisely than Coakley did. The big message is, don’t take the voters for granted. Get out there, work hard, let them see you, let them know you want to earn their support. Scott Brown was right when he said the Senate seat was “the people's seat.”
Elected Official:
I’ll be honest, I really don’t know what it means for Maryland other than it gives the Republican Party serious hope. We Democrats have explained away New Jersey, we explained away Virginia, and we will explain away Massachusetts. At some point, we are going to have to address how the national scene has changed politically after just 14 months and realize Maryland isn’t immune from voter backlash about the economy. I believe people really expected the recession to be in our rear view mirror by now and the economy would be on its way back. Instead, foreclosures are still on the rise, jobs are still being eliminated, etc. Other than the stock market, there is no tangible indication that we are on track to be out of this anytime soon. Somebody has to pay a political price for this and the tab may not have been settled yet.
Party Activist:
Voters are very angry and don’t like incumbents, and they will vote for a good-looking challenger who works hard and asks sincerely for their vote, and such a challenger will have a chance if the Democrat is too nonchalant and does not ask the voters for their vote and show she/he deserves it.
I don’t see any such challenger from the Republicans either in the County or the state. Nor do I see any incumbent Democrats who are in danger of losing to Republicans. This is due not only from the Democratic primacy in the registrations, but also from the fact that the state, while suffering considerable unemployment, is not as bad as Mass. on the loss of jobs.
There may be a few Dems in the County who could lose to Democratic challengers if they don’t campaign well and hard, but that had nothing to do with the Massachusetts election.
Elected Official:
1. Voters are pissed, and are looking to punish their government for its failure to turn things around. This may be the "throw the bums out" cycle that actually throws the bums out. I don't view it as partisan necessarily. But it doesn't help that Dems are in control.
2. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would have lost in Massachusetts too.
3. A little frontal nudity in your past doesn't hurt.
Elected Official:
The Massaschusetts election impact on Maryland is going to be smaller than its impact on the nation. The bottom line is that all elections are referenda on the unemployment rate. This upcoming election could be very much like the 1982 election. If Obama passes health reform (i.e. if the House is smart enough to pass the Senate bill and fix the parts they don’t like with subsequent legislation) then the president will go into his first mid-term with high unemployment. Of course like Ronald Reagan, he will have also accomplished his greatest political objective. Like Reagan, he will lose seats but not his majorities. In Maryland, which has an unemployment rate 3% lower than the nation, it means Martin will win big and we’ll reelect everyone.
On the other hand, if the House refuses to pass the Senate Health bill then NO HEALTH LEGISLATION WILL PASS DURING OUR LIFETIMES! With high unemployment and nothing to show for ourselves the election could be just like 1994. In that case a competent Governor like O’Malley would still win (Parris squeaked out a victory in ‘94 and he was not an incumbent) but we would lose seats in the legislature (although fewer than in 1994).
Strategist:
Maryland Democrats should feel uneasy. The electorate is angry – whether it’s jobs, overreaching by Congressional Dems, taxes, or just a carryover from the Bush years. We may very well see a “throw the bums out” mentality come the primary and general elections.
In addition to the “national” issues, Marylanders will be angry at what they see as government’s inability to solve basic problems: bursting water pipes and congested roads are just two examples.
Moreover, Brown’s win in Massachusetts gives hope to the Maryland GOP.
This doesn’t necessarily spell disaster. There’s plenty of time between now and the elections, and lots can change. Only time will tell.
Elected Official:
It’s the economy stupid! Voters are mad as hell and they are not going to take it any more. The message is that people are really hurting. They are tired of reading in the paper that the economy is improving. Household budgets have been hit hard and things are not improving. I was at an event for Congresswoman Donna Edwards over the weekend and a woman came in off the street not intending on participating in the discussion. She came over to tell the congresswoman that she has been unemployed for two years. She has a master's degree in psychology. When her unemployment ran out she found a part-time job at a local retail store. She makes just enough to put her over the poverty line which means she does not qualify for Medicaid benefits. She just became homeless. This is one story out of many thousands that gets repeated day after day. If the Governor, state lawmakers and local elected officials do not listen carefully to the pain that people are feeling I think that Maryland is one election away from repeating the Massachusetts debacle. When the coalition that Democrats have always depended on to win - union members, people of color, women and young voters - stay at home on Election Day, the message to state and local Democrats is that the people have no patience for more pain.
Karen Britto, Chairwoman, Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee:
The Massachusetts election does not mean anything significant for Maryland. In general, a special election (which has a short-life in terms of campaigning) does not afford an opportunity to run a long-term get-out-the-vote operation that includes extensive canvassing, phoning and idenfication of Democatic voters. This type of GOTV is something where Maryland Democrats possess a great deal of expertise.
Maryland has already begun the campaign process and will be able to run an effective get-out-the-vote operation -- while simultaneously dispelling any myths that arise (similar to the myths about health care and climate change that were touted by the Republicans in Massachusetts).
Maryland Democrats have anticipated any challenges that could surface in November 2010 and are prepared to meet those issues and prevail over them.
David Lublin, MPW Founder and Professor, Department of Government, American University:
The Democrats had a glorious year in 2006 when anger at the Republicans and Bush was running high. Now health care reform appears on the verge of failure and unemployment is unlikely to come down enough to save the Democrats in 2010. Republicans will feel emboldened and motivated while Democrats will be demoralized and demotivated to vote by their inability to capitalize sufficiently on their thumping congressional majorities. In Maryland, Rep. Kratovil will be in deep trouble as he has not been in office long enough to insulate himself against a Republican tide showing any real strength.
The Democrats may suffer losses in the Assembly though that depends on four things: (1) the thin Republican ability to find decent state legislative candidates, (2) a good candidate for governor, (3) a gubernatorial candidate who knows how to mobilize state issues as even a pro-Republican mood is probably not enough Democratic-tilting Maryland, and (4) money to back Republican candidates. Past and future taxes will be a Republican issue. Any losses in the Maryland Senate undermine Sen. President Mike Miller since it is conservative, rather than liberal, Democrats who will go down and it diminishes his image as a protector of Senate Democrats.
In Montgomery, the yearning for new taxes has ceased as signaled by the narrow passage of the Ficker Amendment as well as the increases in a variety of county and state fees within memory. The need to raise the county property tax to counter the decline in valuations will accentuate this mood. Even in Democratic primaries, it will be difficult to attack incumbent candidates for being insufficiently progressive for not spending/taxing enough, especially if core priorities remain somewhat protected compared to elsewhere in the Union. At this point, it seems too early to tell whether pro-business/Chamber Democrats will benefit from the desire for more money in the till even if many still hold the business community responsible for promoting policies that landed us in this mess.
Our Take:
The Republicans still have an uphill battle towards a statewide victory because they cannot compete in Baltimore City or Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, which are three of the four biggest jurisdictions in Maryland. Neither the Tea Parties nor the Massachusetts special election changes that fact. But the Democrats’ voter registration edge will have a diminished effect on voting if some Democrats stay home and a quarter or more of those who vote go for the GOP.
Resource deployment decisions will change. In a more friendly environment, the Democrats could stretch their goals and try for wins in GOP territory, with Frank Kratovil’s 2008 victory being the ultimate example. But now they will have to play defense to protect vulnerable Senate and House seats in swing districts. This phenomenon will even filter down into safe Democratic districts as the party leaders will not have the luxury of protecting their incumbents from primary challenges. That means that Senators Jennie Forehand, Nancy King and Mike Lenett will likely be on their own against potential or actual opponents.
Wednesday, January 06, 2010
Turnbull Takes on Owings
Just as former Ehrlich Cabinet Member George Owings is announcing his run for Governor as a Democrat, Maryland Democratic Party Chair Susan Turnbull is declaring, "Game on!" Here's her comment on his candidacy, which we reprint from the party's blog.Who is George Owings?
Just one teeny-weeny question. Doesn't the party usually stay officially neutral during contested primaries?
As you might imagine, I’ve been getting some questions about George Owings and his candidacy for Governor of Maryland.
Despite the fact that I have been involved in the Maryland Democratic Party for more than 25 years, I don’t really know George Owings. What I do know is that he was a loyal appointee of Bob Ehrlich. He may be a nice enough guy, but to be honest no one in the state or especially the Democratic Party is clamoring for a return to the Ehrlich administration.
Most Marylanders know that Governor O’Malley is doing a good job leading the state forward in this very difficult time. In fact, from where I sit, Maryland is in much better shape than our neighbors and we can be really thankful we’ve had such a steady hand leading us. Maybe that’s why Governing Magazine chose Martin O’Malley as Governor of the Year in 2009.
George Owings’ conservative record on tobacco, choice, women, health care, guns and the environment have led to his close affiliation with the state GOP and Bob Ehrlich. Republican gubernatorial candidate Larry Hogan has even said that he and George Owings agree on most issues.
George Owings has said on the record that he was disappointed to lose his political appointment in the Ehrlich cabinet, and even admitted that he needed a “cooling off period” to get over his anger when Governor O’Malley won and appointed new cabinet secretaries. This “challenge” sounds a little too personal and it makes you wonder whether George Owings is still reading from Bob Ehrlich’s talking points.
One thing I have seen this year is that Democrats, be they conservative or liberal, are happy with Governor O’Malley and recognize that Maryland has stable, conscientious leadership.
Written by: Susan Turnbull on January 6, 2010.
