Democrats performed better in early voting than Republicans despite subpar turnouts in Montgomery County and Baltimore City.
Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by party.
The Republicans' early voting matched their voter registration percentage. The Democrats beat their registration percentage by 7.5 points.
One reason for the Democrats' advantage would be if their party organizations in their three strongholds - Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George's Counties - aggressively turned out early votes. But that has not been the case. Here is a chart contrasting voter registration and early voting percentages by county.
Prince George's County was the only jurisdiction in the Democrats' Big Three to beat their registration percentage in early voting. Both Baltimore and MoCo, and the Big Three together, lagged.
So the Democrats beat the GOP in early voting mostly by relying on party members outside their strongholds. That should be an encouraging sign for Martin O'Malley.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Democrats Lead in Early Voting - Without MoCo and Baltimore
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Interpreting the Early Votes
Right now, MoCo political junkies are eagerly scanning the early voting results. But they should beware because they are probably skewed in important ways.
The early voting totals, which will probably wind up being 5-10% of the total vote (if that), are distinct from election day voting in the following ways.
1. They are driven by geography.
MoCo had five early voting centers: Bauer Drive Rec Center in Aspen Hill, the Executive Office Building in Downtown Rockville, the Germantown Recreation Center, the Praisner Community Center in Burtonsville and the Silver Spring Civic Center. That will disproportionately impact candidates who will do well (or badly) in those areas, and will affect legislative districts. The fact that Montgomery is leading Kramer in District 14 could well be because the Praisner Center is in Burtonsville, the relatively liberal part of the district. In Council District 2, Craig Rice, who lives in Germantown, benefits from early voting in the Germantown Recreation Center. In District 18, Beyer ran relatively well in Silver Spring last time whereas Carr’s base is along Connecticut Avenue. That may be part of the reason she is leading Carr. And in the at-large race, Trachtenberg and Wagner were hurt in early voting totals because there is no early voting center in Bethesda. Elrich, Leventhal and Riemer benefitted from early voting in Downtown Silver Spring.
Early voting center geography was correlated with legislative district voting percentages. Consider early voting turnout rates by legislative district, noting which ones had early voting centers.
District 20: 2.03% (Silver Spring Civic Center)
District 19: 2.02% (Bauer Drive Rec Center)
District 14: 1.55% (Praisner Center)
District 17: 1.22% (EOB)
District 18: 1.22% (None)
District 39: 1.11% (Germantown Rec)
District 15: 0.96% (None)
District 16: 0.76% (None)
2. They are pre-Apple Ballot.
We hear that MCEA had little or no Apple Ballot coverage at the early voting centers. Also, MCEA’s mailers hit late. That works against Wagner and Riemer in the early voting results.
3. Many of the early votes are pre-mail.
Many early voters voted prior to getting all of the mail. We don’t know how that will play out, but it could be a factor.
Welcome to the beginning of what could be a long night.
Early Vote Results
The MoCo Board of Elections has just posted its early voting results. We anticipate that early votes will comprise somewhere between 5% and 10% of total votes. The results are here, but here's a quick breakdown for key primaries.
D14 Senate
Montgomery: 453
Kramer: 423
D14 House
Kaiser: 600
Zucker: 544
Luedtke: 392
Finkelstein: 277
Newsome: 249
D15 House
Dumais: 433
Feldman: 432
Miller: 356
Fraser-Hidalgo: 109
Wibeto: 92
D16 House
Lee: 334
Frick: 307
Lierman: 142
Kelly: 130
Jamgochian: 105
Winston: 91
D17 Senate
Forehand: 356
Kagan: 279
D18 Senate
Madaleno: 499
Griffiths: 127
D18 House
Gutierrez: 454
Waldstreicher: 392
Beyer: 377
Carr: 320
Atterbeary: 286
D19 Senate
Manno: 653
Lenett: 408
House 19
Kramer: 729
Arora: 643
Cullison: 559
Dang: 384
Hutchins: 366
Scretchen: 191
D39 Senate
Ali: 283
King: 255
House 39
Barkley: 386
Reznik: 341
Robinson: 225
Hydorn: 172
Council At-Large
Elrich: 3,496
Floreen: 3,097
Leventhal: 3,048
Riemer: 2,934
Trachtenberg: 2,777
Wagner: 2,230
Council 1
Berliner: 510
Hopkins: 206
Council 2
Rice: 485
Hanson: 239
Dooley: 151
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Information on Early Voting
Thanks to Alan Banov for providing the following:
Early Voting in Montgomery County, 2010
The primary will be held on Tuesday, September 14, and the general election will be on Tuesday, November 2, 2010. However, those are not the only days in which people can vote. Thanks to a new Constitutional Amendment and new laws, anyone can vote on the following dates, without any particular excuse or reason:
Primary 10 a.m.-8 p.m., Sept. 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, and 9, 2010
General 10 a.m.-8 p.m., Oct. 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, and 28, 2010
Early voting will be at five locations throughout the County
1) Germantown Recreation Center, 18905 Kingsview Rd., Germantown 20874
2) Bauer Drive Recreation Center, 14625 Bauer Drive, Rockville 20853
3) Executive Office Building, 101 Monroe Street, Rockville 20850
4) Marilyn J. Praisner Community Recreation Center, 14906 Old Columbia Pike, Burtonsville 20866
5) Silver Spring Civic Center, One Veterans Place (corner of Ellsworth Drive and Fenton Street), Silver Spring 20910
(After 2010 early voting will also be held on Sundays within the early voting periods.)
Vote close to where you live. Vote close to where you work. Or just vote at any of the five places you choose. Just vote only once!
The rules for voting are just the same as for other elections. The only differences are that you can vote anywhere, not just close to your precinct, and you may vote somewhat shorter hours (10 a.m. to 8 p.m., not 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.).
Due to early voting, we expect shorter lines at the polls on the regular election days and we may learn the election results faster!
For more details, go to http://www.montgomerycountymd.gov/eletmpl.asp?url=/content/elections/2010GubernatorialElection/EarlyVoting/EarlyVoting.asp
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
MoCo Board of Elections Opposes Early Voting in District 4
Following is a memo from the Deputy Election Director of the Montgomery County Board of Elections to Senator Roy Dyson (D-29) opposing Senator Madaleno's early voting bill for District 4. BOE has written Senator Dyson because he is the lead sponsor of the statewide early voting bill pending in the Senate. While the BOE memo says that County Executive Ike Leggett opposes Madaleno's early voting bill, we should stress that we have not heard that directly from the County Executive's office. Perhaps his representatives (who have commented here before) would like to elaborate on the County Executive's position?
TO: Senator Roy Dyson
FROM: Sara Harris, Deputy Election Director, Montgomery County Board of Elections
DATE: February 27, 2009
RE: Early Voting
It has come to my attention that Sen. Madaleno, Sen. Raskin are preparing emergency legislation to permit early voting prior to the Special Council District 4 Primary and General Elections in Montgomery County, officially scheduled by the Montgomery County Council for April 21 and May 19, 2009.
County Executive Isiah Leggett has indicated his opposition to this legislation.
The Montgomery County Board President, Jerrold Garson and I were in Annapolis yesterday providing Sen. Madaleno, Sen. Raskin and their staff with details of why this emergency legislation is imprudent, unwise, hasty, adjectives not associated with well-implemented, successfully conducted elections.
While we and our Boards of Elections’ colleagues across the state are preparing for early voting procedures for the 2010 Gubernatorial Elections, no regulation, procedure or policy has been adopted at this time. It is highly unwise and impractical to prepare for and expect successfully implemented early voting in such a short time. To be required to initiate, prepare and proceed to launch early voting within weeks when, for example, obtaining a facility, personnel, electronic poll books (testing, preparation and delivery), for the 46 precincts of the District presents a set of variables for not only embarrassment for all involved, but, also, adds a potential loss to voter confidence.
We are prepared to provide registered voters in Council District 4 with the following information regarding hours of voting. In addition to the mailed sample ballot to each registered voter, the Montgomery County Board of Elections expects to mail absentee voting information to each voter, including web site download of an absentee application form and the option to vote absentee at the Board of Elections’ office with additional in-office voting hours available on the Saturday immediately before both the primary and the general elections.
Please do not permit proceeding with a service for which there is no regulation, no procedure, no tested software/electronic poll book preparation concluded, no personnel recruited and trained, and no secure, appropriate facility agreement in place. Please, instead, give careful consideration for time and expert resources to develop and implement proper procedures for 2010 early voting, permitting time for voters to be informed, personnel to be recruited and trained, equipment to be tested and prepared subject to a new preparation and delivery schedule and election officials to carry out the necessary, multiple preparations. Proceeding hastily into unknown territory is an unnecessary, unwise risk; what is necessary, is a well-prepared for, successfully launched early voting in 2010 complementing the success and voter confidence evident to many throughout the successful conduct of the 2008 presidential elections in Maryland.
Thank you for your attention to this important matter.
Sara Harris
Deputy Election Director
240-777-8522
sara.harris@montgomerycountymd.gov
Note: The bold emphasis above appeared in the original memo.
Early Voting Proposal Roils District 4 Race (Updated)
Maryland voters overwhelmingly approved early voting last year and an upcoming state bill would allow it in the District 4 special election. In a county full of liberals that supported early voting, what could be wrong with this? Plenty, say some opponents.
Maryland’s early voting system goes back to 2006, when a law allowing it passed the General Assembly over Governor Ehrlich’s veto but was struck down by the courts as unconstitutional. In 2007, the General Assembly passed SB 1, a constitutional amendment allowing early voting, by a 31-16 vote in the Senate and a 107-32 vote in the House. (No Democrats voted against it other than Senators James Brochin and George Della.) Voters approved the amendment, which passed in every county, by a 72%-28% margin.
The text of the amendment as approved by the voters says:Authorizes the General Assembly to enact legislation to allow qualified voters to vote at polling places inside or outside of their election districts or wards and to vote up to two weeks before an election. This amendment also authorizes the General Assembly to enact legislation to allow absentee voting by qualified voters who choose to vote by absentee ballot, in addition to voters who are absent at the time of the election or who are unable to vote personally.
And so the General Assembly must draft legislation to implement the proposal, a matter currently under discussion. But since the legislature adjourns in early April and the District 4 primary is on April 21, it is unlikely that a broad bill would be passed quickly enough to facilitate early voting in the special election. To deal with that issue, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18) is proposing a bill ensuring that early voting applies in all special elections prior to June 30, 2009. His proposal is attracting both support and opposition.
In the past, opposition to early voting has come primarily from conservatives. The Wall Street Journal’s John Fund associated early voting with fraud, strong-arm tactics, lawsuits and recounts. Columnist George Will asked, “What kind of people will not vote if doing so requires them to get off their couches and visit neighborhood polling places?” National Review columnist Jonah Goldberg said, “My own view is that voting should be more difficult because things of value usually require a little work.”
Maryland Republicans agree; the state GOP announced its opposition to early voting last October. House Minority Leader Anthony O’Donnell said the amendment was “ripe for fraud” and Senate Minority Leader Allan Kittleman said the state “cannot jeopardize the integrity of our elections merely for the purpose of convenience.” The GOP tried unsuccessfully to stall the amendment back in 2007.
Other opponents point to occasional critical events that come late in campaigns, such as Texas Governor candidate Clayton Williams’ flippant comment about rape in 1990, the revelation of George W. Bush’s DUI charge in 2000 and the collapse of the American economy just before the 2008 Presidential election. Critics say that early voting deprives citizens of such information if they vote too early.
Early voting was not opposed by any element of Maryland’s left. The League of Women Voters, Common Cause Maryland, the Maryland ACLU and Progressive Neighbors all argued in favor of the amendment. The NAACP has called for early voting in all 50 states. One of early voting’s highest-profile supporters was Senate President Mike Miller – hardly a darling of liberals – who said, “The important aspect of early voting is that working men and women can actually vote on Saturday… They don’t have to take off work on Tuesday to vote.”
Our sources tell us that three Montgomery County Council Members have expressed reservations about early voting in the special election: Phil Andrews (a former Executive Director of Common Cause), Duchy Trachtenberg and Marc Elrich. Council Members George Leventhal, Valerie Ervin, Nancy Floreen, Mike Knapp and Roger Berliner (who is the only sitting member of the council who has run in a special election) support early voting in the District 4 race. Council Members Andrews, Trachtenberg and Elrich all endorsed Don Praisner over Nancy Navarro last year and none of them spoke out against early voting last fall. Many in Rockville are speculating that part of the reason for opposition to early voting is suspicion that it will help Navarro. A supporter of one of Navarro’s opponents wailed to your author, “Why are they changing the rules in the middle of the game?”
That’s a simple question that deserves a simple answer: because the voters wanted them changed. Montgomery County passed early voting by an 80%-20% vote, the third-highest margin in the state behind Prince George’s County (90%-10%) and Baltimore City (85%-15%). The two Leisure World precincts, 13-54 and 13-69, voted by a combined 2,441-1,309 (65%-35%) margin in favor of early voting. In last year’s special election, precinct 5-12 (Paint Branch High School) gave Nancy Navarro her lowest vote percentage of the race (24% vs. 67% for Don Praisner). This same precinct voted in favor of early voting by an 84%-16% margin. Could Montgomery voters really have intended to allow early voting in all elections except special elections?
Regardless of their reasons for resistance, Montgomery’s early voting opponents should think carefully about the political implications of this debate. Do they want to be on the same side as the NAACP, the League of Women Voters, the ACLU, Common Cause and 80% of Montgomery’s voters? Or do they want to side with John Fund, George Will, Jonah Goldberg and the Maryland Republican Party on a position that puts them to the right of Mike Miller?
Update: After reviewing a draft of Senator Madaleno’s proposal, Council Member Marc Elrich is supporting the bill.
Thursday, February 26, 2009
More District 4 Tidbits
Here’s what we have for all you D4 junkies today!
1. Nancy Navarro’s new website is up. She joins Cary Lamari, Chris Paladino and Republican Lou August in D4 cyberspace. Ben Kramer has a Delegate website up, but it contains no reference to the County Council race.
2. After nearly two weeks of harassment by this blog, the Washington Post has finally acknowledged the candidacy of Cary Lamari. Of course, that was buried in an article about Robin Ficker.
3. The Montgomery County Board of Elections has published its special election timeline. Among the key dates are:
March 5: Deadline to file candidacy for the primary
March 9: Deadline to withdraw from the primary
March 24: First campaign finance report due
March 30: Voter registration closes
April 10: Second campaign finance report due
April 14: Last day for primary absentee ballot application
April 21: Primary election
May 8: Third campaign finance report due
May 19: General election
June 9: Fourth campaign finance report due
4. We hear the precinct closure plan is dead. No word on Executive Director Margaret Jurgensen’s retention by the board. Former County Executive Doug Duncan called for her resignation more than two years ago.
5. This special election is not the first time Robin Ficker has changed his residence to run for office. Ficker, a resident of Boyds in District 15, moved to Montgomery Village in 2002 to challenge District 39 Senator P.J. Hogan. Hogan won the general election by a 19,099-9,689 vote.
6. We hear that some in the General Assembly are considering filing a bill to allow early voting in the District 4 special election. Maryland voters approved a constitutional amendment allowing early voting last year, but the legislature must pass implementing legislation. This idea is drawing a lot of interest, pro and con, from players in Montgomery County and we will have more on this soon.
7. For all the tumult about developer contributions in the last special election, none of the 2008 candidates had any record on development policy. This time around, two of them do. We will go all the way back to the 1990s next week to find out who they are, what they did and what happened. Don’t miss this one, junkies!
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Obama Leads in First Ballots Counted
Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire have followed their tradition of voting just after midnight on Election Day and quickly counting the ballots. Obama won the two towns by 32 votes to just 16 for McCain. According to Wikipedia, Obama is the first Democrat to carry Dixville Notch since Humphrey beat Nixon in the town in 1968. Oh, and Shaheen leads Sununu by 12 votes to 6 in Dixville Notch in the U.S. Senate race--an ominous start for the Republicans in an area they've usually done well.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
MCDCC's Sample Ballot
By Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) member Marc Korman.
A recent Maryland Moment post announced that the Prince George’s County Democratic Central Committee has taken no position on the slots (sorry, video lottery terminals) question on the ballot in November. As MPW’s resident Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) member, I thought I would share how the recommendation process works in our county. Why does it matter? Because the recommendation of the Central Committee is what gets printed on the Party’s sample ballot, which is mailed to the approximately 250,000 registered Democrats in Montgomery County.
The Process So Far
Back in April, I posted information about how to apply for the MCDCC Ballot Advisory Committee. MCDCC appointed the Committee members in May, appointing all fourteen applicants (one of whom later withdrew).
Below is the name of each member and some information about them. The information is not meant to be exhaustive:
1. Elliot Chabot-District 19 MCDCC member and chair of the Ballot Advisory Committee.
2. Stan Boyd-District 20 precinct official.
3. Doug Canter-President of the D16 Democratic Club and precinct official.
4. Lora Drezner-District 15 precinct official.
5. Elihu Eli El-District 20 precinct official.
6. Dolly Kildee-Distirct 17 precinct official.
7. Eric Luedtke-District 14 precinct official.
8. Judy Stout-District 39 precinct official.
9. David Kipping-District 19 precinct official.
10. Rosalind Kipping-District 19 precinct official.
11. Esther Gelman-Former County Council and Planning Board member.
12. David Scull-Former County Council and General Assembly member.
13. Veronica Sheets-District 20 resident.
14. Luis Zapata-Organizer for several campaigns.
The Committee met over the summer, deliberating and exchanging thoughts on the ballot questions both at those meetings and through other means. On September 2nd, they held a three and a half hour public hearing, allowing members of the community to share their views on the important issues at stake. I attended the hearing, which featured testimony from elected officials, community leaders, and others, primarily on the transgender referendum (since removed from the ballot by court order) and slots.
Following the public hearing, the committee deliberated further and came up with recommendations on each of the ballot questions in a detailed report. Their recommendations on the most consequential ballot questions were:
Early Voting- Support
Video Lottery Terminals/Slots-Oppose
Enactment of Transgender Non-Discrimination-Support
Charter Limit Override Votes Increase (Ficker Amendment)-Oppose
What Happens Next
The Ballot Advisory Committee recommendations are forwarded to the Montgomery County Democratic Precinct organization, which consists of a chair and vice chair for each of the approximately 250 electoral precincts in Montgomery County. Later in September, the precinct officials will take a position on each of the ballot questions by vote.
Following the precinct officials’ meeting, MCDCC votes on each of the ballot questions. If MCDCC’s position on a question is the same as the precinct officials, that is the position of the party. If MCDCC disagrees, then the party takes no position by default, meaning they are neutral. I have been told that since MCDCC adopted that policy a decade ago, they have never disagreed with the recommendations of the precinct officials.
Why Does It Matter?
It matters because the Democratic sample ballot will have the party’s positions on it. That ballot is mailed to 250,000 registered Democrats in the County and is available outside the polls on Election Day. It will not determine how every Democrat votes, but it can be influential.
Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Early Voting Passes the Senate
Today, the Maryland Senate approved a constitutional amendment which would allow early voting in the State of Maryland. Despite Republican squawking, it passed 31-16. Now, it should go before the voters in 2008. Thanks to Scott Tsikerdanos in Sen. Rich Madaleno's office for providing the information on the vote.
Monday, February 19, 2007
Early Voting Passes the House
Apparently, even some Republicans believe that democracy as we know it will not end if Maryland joins many of its sister states by amending its Constitution to permit early voting:
The referendum would be put on the 2008 ballot for voters to decide. Democrats say early voting will increase turnout, but Republicans argue that it is tilted against them and will invite fraud by allowing voters to cast ballots in precincts other then their own.
Six GOP delegates joined all voting Democrats in supporting the measure, which required the approval of three-fifths of the chamber. It received 101 supporting votes — 16 more than were needed.
‘‘We’re giving people the right to choose to give us direction on this issue,” said House Ways and Means Chairwoman Sheila E. Hixson (D-Dist. 20) of Silver Spring.
By the time I post this, the Senate may well have passed it too as they were scheduled to vote on the amendment tonight (Monday).
