The following news release from the Maryland Democrats quotes Baltimore City Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake as denouncing robocalls made in the city that were intended to suppress voter turnout.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
November 2, 2010 7:00PM
RAWLINGS-BLAKE DENOUNCES MISLEADING ROBO CALLS INTENDED TO SUPRESS VOTER TURNOUT IN BALTIMORE CITY
BALTIMORE - Tonight, Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake denounced a serious of misleading automated phone calls intended to suppress democratic voter turnout by targeting Baltimore City residents. The call urges voters to “relax” and stay home because “President Obama and Governor O’Malley have been successful” even before the polls officially close at 8:00pm.
“I was deeply troubled to hear this misleading robo call targeting Baltimore City residents urging them to relax and stay home as if the the election was over and the polls have been closed,” Rawlings-Blake said. “Sadly, this kind of gutter politics that we have come to expect from Bob Ehrlich and the Republican Party. In 2006, Bob Ehrlich’s campaign distributed intentionally false and misleading fliers intended to confuse minority voters and today they’ve reached a new low.”
TRANSCRIPT OF AUTOMATED CALL
Woman’s Voice: “I’m calling to let everyone know that Governor O’Malley and President Obama have been successful. Our Goals have been met. The Polls were correct… and we’re ok. Relax, everything is fine. They only thing left is to watch on TV tonight.
Congratulations and Thank you.”
###
Update: WBAL-TV has more.
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Baltimore Mayor Condemns Robocalls Intended to Suppress Turnout (Updated)
Monday, October 11, 2010
Women Dominate Maryland Primaries
Candidates and political consultants have known for a long time that women outvote men in Maryland elections. But data released by the State Board of Elections (SBE) on last month’s primaries show just how important that phenomenon is.
SBE’s 2010 election page does not include a turnout section yet, but its press room does have stats on election day and early voter turnout. One of SBE’s breakdowns lists primary turnout by gender. Here are the raw counts by county.
And here are the percentages of primary voters who were women.
In every county, women were a majority of primary voters. This is primarily due to female dominance of Democratic primaries, in which they accounted for 59% of voters. But women have near parity in the Republican Party too, where they accounted for 49% of voters.
One more fact stands out. Female vote percentages were highest in Maryland’s four largest jurisdictions. They are:
Baltimore City: 60.8%
Prince George’s: 59.3%
Montgomery: 56.0%
Baltimore County: 55.6%
These four jurisdictions accounted for 52% of all primary voters last month. And they accounted for 56% of all votes in the 2006 general election.
Meet the bosses of Free State politics, folks: Maryland women!
Monday, October 04, 2010
MoCo Primary 2010: Precinct Turnout
Precinct Turnout, 2010
Precinct Turnout, 2006 vs. 2010
Precinct Turnout Demographics, 2006 vs. 2010
Thursday, September 16, 2010
On Montgomery County’s Plummeting Turnout
Tuesday’s turnout rate was so low that it may signal a threat to the state of Montgomery County’s democracy. Here’s why.
Consider these turnout results in MoCo primaries since 1978.
Even though the 2010 results currently exclude absentees and provisionals, it is obvious that this year’s turnout will be BY FAR the lowest in at least thirty years.
The rate is even worse when comparing the number of actual voters to the number of people who are eligible vote. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Montgomery County’s population aged 18 or over totaled 722,033 in 2008. Not counting absentees or provisionals, that means 14.7% – or about one person in seven of the voting age population – has decided the makeup of our county government and state delegation.
Why has this happened?
1. Democratic disillusionment
MoCo is an overwhelmingly Democratic county. Some spies have suggested that Democratic euphoria at Barack Obama’s election last year has been replaced by Democratic apathy given the state of the economy. That may be true, but 1994 was a tough year for Democrats too, and MoCo’s primary turnout rate was about 50% higher then than it will be this year.
2. Negative campaigning
There is no question that this was the most negative primary in MoCo history. One theory holds that all the negative mail disgusted voters and kept them away from the polls. We don’t believe that has accounted for all the turnout drop, but we will assess turnout rates for different districts when we see them to test that hypothesis.
3. No top-ticket races
There were no premier Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress or County Executive races this year, and that was definitely a factor in keeping turnout low. But that was also the case in 1998, and turnout that year will wind up being about five points higher than this year.
4. No media coverage
The mainstream media unquestionably did an abysmal job in covering our primaries this year – especially the Washington Post. That may have depressed turnout if many of our voters did not even know that there were elections. But the magnitude of this factor is impossible to measure.
5. Demographics
As of 2008, 401,047 of MoCo’s 722,033 citizens aged 18 or older were white non-Hispanics. That works out to a voting-age population percentage of 55.5% white non-Hispanic. For the total population, the white non-Hispanic percentage was 53.4%.
Of the county’s forty-two state and county-level elected officials, thirty-two (76.2%) will be white non-Hispanic. That percentage is about twenty points higher than the voting-age population. And consider the respective win rates of white and non-white candidates in this year’s contested county and state elections.
In all contested elections, the winning percentage for white candidates (45.6%) was fourteen points higher than for non-white candidates (31.6%). Removing the District 16 House race, which was full of losing white candidates, from the statistics produces a 53.3%-27.8%, or 25.6-point, spread. On the positive side, every non-white incumbent who ran for reelection (County Executive Ike Leggett, Council Members Nancy Navarro and Valerie Ervin and Delegates Susan Lee, Kumar Barve, Ana Sol Gutierrez and Al Carr) won.
We do not intend to denigrate any candidates, whatever their race or ethnicity, for having the campaign savvy and work ethic to run and win. But when the county is about to turn “majority-minority” and the win percentages between white and non-white candidates are this different, some reflection may be in order. It seems that the county’s political life has not yet integrated many of its newest residents.
Montgomery County has long had an elite that has guided its politics. Many years ago, Gazette columnist Blair Lee coined the term “the Glorious Five Thousand” to describe the county’s political class of office holders, staffers, lobbyists, developers, business people, advocates and activists who collectively determine the direction of the county. Most localities all across the world have such a class. But in MoCo, the Glorious Five Thousand seem to be increasingly disconnected from the rest of the local population. That may have dire consequences for the county’s democracy in years to come.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Turnout Update
MCDCC just sent us a spreadsheet with 3 PM turnout numbers for 197 precincts. 35,311 Democrats voted in those precincts, which projects out to 43,556 Dems for all 243 precincts. 94,351 Democratic voters cast ballots on primary day in 2006. In addition, 6,087 Democratic early votes have been cast in MoCo. Those results are becoming available now.
Turnout is LOW LOW
Guess what? Turnout is low, low, LOW. Surprise, surprise!
MCDCC has released a list of turnout counts for 183 precincts as of 3 PM. Those precincts together reported 33,380 Democratic votes so far. That projects to about 44,000 votes for all 243 precincts. There were 94,351 Democratic votes on primary day, 2006.
Now 6,087 Democratic early votes have been cast in MoCo, so the combined total was about 50,000 at 3 PM. The prime-time evening hours are only now underway. So what will the poll vote total be? Seventy thousand something? Eighty thousand? That’s still significantly below 2006.
Anecdotal data from our spies confirm this. Every informant we have spoken with at the polls says that turnout is “light,” “dismal” or even “abysmal.” Low turnout is going to be a major explanatory factor in these elections.
Turnout is LOW
An extremely preliminary count released by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) suggests that turnout is low today. Very, VERY low.
MCDCC has collected turnout counts as of 10 AM on their website for 182 of the county’s 243 precincts. Those 182 precincts saw 12,267 Democratic voters. That projects out to between 16,000 and 17,000 voters for the morning if these precincts are representative. In the 2006 MoCo primary, 94,351 Democrats voted on election day.
Now, there are several issues to be considered. First, early voting did not exist in 2006 (though we hear that has been low too). Second, most voting occurs in the evening. Third, there will be lots of absentees and provisionals to be counted.
But consider this. In 2006, 2,695 total people – including Democrats, Republicans, members of other parties and unaffiliated voters – cast votes in Leisure World on election day. As of 10 AM this morning, only 373 people had voted there. In 2006, 1,062 people voted in Precinct 5-05 (Springbrook High School in Silver Spring). As of 10 AM today, 124 people voted there. In 2006, 826 people voted in Precinct 5-12 (Paint Branch High School in Burtonsville). As of 10 AM today, 128 people voted there. And in 2006, 813 people voted in Precinct 13-51 (Rock Creek Valley Elementary School in Rockville). As of 10 AM today, 116 people voted there.
Yes, there are lots of uncertainties in these very early turnout numbers, but they confirm the question that some of our spies are asking: where are all the voters?
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Council At-Large Geography, Part Two
Today, we look at turnout in the 2006 primary and ponder how it might be different this year.
Following is 2006 primary turnout for all voters casting ballots at precincts. Our statistics are limited by the fact that precinct-level turnout data includes members of all parties and excludes absentee and provisional voters. For the record, while total precinct turnout was 24.0% for the county as a whole, Democratic turnout (including absentees and provisionals) was 40.0% and Republican turnout (again including absentees and provisionals) was 19.0%. So the chief value in the statistics below is comparative.
A few notes.
1. The high turnout rates in Takoma Park (32.1%), Downtown Silver Spring (29.3%), State Legislative District 20 (28.7%) and Council District 5 (28.2%) are likely a product of the intense Jamie Raskin-Ida Ruben Senate race. Raskin is running unopposed this year as is District 5 County Council Member Valerie Ervin so these turnout rates are likely to decline.
2. About one-quarter of all cards cast in the election came from Council District 1, which includes Bethesda, Chevy Chase and Potomac. If Council District 5’s turnout goes down, Council District 1 will be even more important.
3. Upcounty’s Council District 2 had the poorest turnout rate (17.9%). Will its rate go up due to its contested council primary?
4. Gaithersburg’s turnout rate (18.9%) was also well below the county average. Will the debate over the Gaithersburg West Master Plan cause its turnout to increase?
5. Districts 14, 17, 19 and 39 have marquee Senate races and District 16 has a chaotic, loaded House race. Will that affect any of their turnout rates? Other than District 16, these districts are not based in Downcounty where turnout is usually higher. Will this change the mix for the at-large race?
As you can see, despite possessing reams of data, we have more questions than answers on turnout. The only thing we know for sure is that the geographic distribution of turnout will have a large impact on the at-large council results, and no one knows for sure how that will play out.
In Part Three, we’ll look at the Apple Ballot.
Monday, December 28, 2009
MoCo General Election 2008: Turnout
OK, let's be honest: odds are, you're kicking back, drinking egg nog and not doing a whole lot this week, right? So that means you are ready for the same thing we are: data! All this week, we will be presenting the results of our exclusive 2008 MoCo general election database. We have painstakingly assembled statistics on turnout, presidential vote, the slots amendment and the Ficker amendment built from the precinct level up. This kind of political intelligence could prove valuable next year, and as usual, only MPW readers are eligible to access it! Today, we present turnout by Congressional District, state legislative district, council district and local area. Click on the image for a larger view. There are a few surprises in here, so enjoy!
Update: One of our readers asked if these numbers include absentees and provisionals. They do not since they were constructed by assembling precinct counts.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Record Turnout?
Prof. Michael McDonald over at GMU has done a great job of tracking turnout in this and past elections. He has posted preliminary rough turnout estimates on his blog. So was turnout up or down?
According to Mike, national turnout was 62.6% among the voting eligible population. Unlike the voting-age population, the voting-eligible population excludes people over age 18 who aren't eligible like noncitizens, people imprisoned and disfranchised felons. At an estimate of 62.6%, turnout is up 1.9% from 2004 and is the highest turnout rate among the voting eligible population since 1964.
Turnout was up in Maryland too--67.0% of the voting eligible population of our state cast a ballot this year compared to just 63.1% in 2004.
