The House of Representatives voted once again on February 14th on the reauthorization of the Patriot Act after it failed on February 9th. While consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, our delegation really outdid themselves this time. As one political maven commented to me: "You can smell the positioning." See who changed their votes and how after the jump.
Vote Switchers
Changed from Yes to Absent: Van Hollen (D).
Changed from No to Yes: Bartlett (R), Cummings (D), Edwards (D).
Changed from Yes to No: Harris (R), Hoyer (D).
Two Consistent Votes
Yes to Reauthorization: Ruppersberger (D).
No to Reauthorization: Sarbanes (D)
Oh, and this time the reauthorization succeeded as it needed just a majority instead of two-thirds as before when it was brought forward by the Republican leadership under rules requiring that level of support.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Patriot Act Musical Chairs
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
Andy Harris: Government-Run Health Care "Got Us Into Bankruptcy"
Surely, you have heard of Congressman-Elect Andy Harris’s newfound support for government-run health care – at least for himself – by now. But to appreciate the full head-spinning magnitude of his conversion to socialism, one has to observe his statements on the issue while he ran for office. This video comes from his February 2010 appearance at the Cecil County Patriots Candidate Forum.
At 1:50 of the video, Harris is asked his opinion on the federal government’s role in health care. At 3:15, Harris begins his answer by denouncing Medicare and Medicaid and predicting that more government-run health care “got us into bankruptcy and will keep us in bankruptcy.” And yet, Harris’s first action as a Congressman-Elect is to complain that he can’t get government-run health care for himself fast enough.
Rarely has the stomach-churning stench of hypocrisy wafted so heavily over Capitol Hill.
Wednesday, November 03, 2010
Tuesday, November 02, 2010
Harris Has Huge Early Lead on Kratovil
Here are the first results by county on the Congress District 1 race.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Too Rich for Furloughs
As we wrote yesterday, we believe that state legislators are paid too little relative to their job duties. That threatens to shrink the pool of competent people willing to serve and it is one reason why we have not made a big deal about their giving up furlough days in line with state employees. But a few state legislators are genuinely wealthy and would not miss the money, so they have no excuse not to give their pay back to the general fund. Here are three who spent at least $50,000 on their own political campaigns but have turned up their noses at giving back any part of their salaries to the state.
Senator Edward J. Pipkin (R-36)
Caroline, Cecil, Kent & Queen Anne’s Counties
Self-Financing, Federal Campaigns: $2,579,057
Self-Financing, State Campaigns: $573,000
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2009: 0
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2010: 0 (So far)
Few people in Maryland’s history, if any, have spent more on their own political races than E.J. Pipkin. A Wall Street trader who made millions selling junk bonds, Pipkin loaned himself $573,000 to knock out six-term Democratic Senate incumbent Walter Baker in 2002. Two years later, Pipkin contributed $1,591,057, or 70% of his receipts, to his unsuccessful U.S. Senate campaign against Barbara Mikulski. But Pipkin was not through trying to buy elections, giving himself another $988,000 – 92% of his receipts – to run unsuccessfully in the Congress District 1 primary against Andy Harris.
Pipkin’s ability to turn on the cash spigot is unparalleled. He once lived in a 9,792-square-foot mansion in Stevensville which he sold for $4.5 million on 9/25/06. Whether he used those proceeds to pay himself back for the race against Mikulski or to finance his race against Andy Harris – or maybe both – is unknown. But Pipkin hasn’t gone to the poorhouse. His new spread in Elkton is right next to “The Club of Patriots Glen,” described as a “must-play course” by Washington Golf Monthly.
Pipkin lives by the rules of the super-rich: do what you want, when you want. And while other legislators send their pay back to the state, Pipkin feels no such obligation. He is just too rich for furloughs.
Delegate William Anthony McConkey (R-33A)
Anne Arundel County
Self-Financing, Federal Campaigns: NA
Self-Financing, State Campaigns: $200,950
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2009: 0
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2010: 0 (So far)
Tony McConkey is a lawyer, real estate broker and property manager who spent $107,950 to get himself elected to an Anne Arundel Delegate seat in 2002. He followed up with another $93,000 in self-financing in 2006.
It’s a mystery how McConkey makes his money since he spends so much time in court as a defendant. He has been sued in 22 different cases in Prince George’s and Anne Arundel County courts since 1991. Among the parties who have sued him are the IRS, the State of Maryland and Prince George’s County, all of whom filed tax liens against him. The state’s lien totaled $12,703.54; the other amounts are not listed on the dockets.
The most infamous anti-McConkey suit was filed by Pasadena resident Teresa Milligan, who alleged that he tricked her into selling her house to him when it was threatened with foreclosure in 2006. Two years later, McConkey filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy to delay his jury trial. The jury ultimately found him guilty of violating state law, but only required him to pay $10,800. A triumphant McConkey proclaimed, “I feel vindicated.” A judge later hiked the penalty to $109,000 in damages and attorneys fees.
Unlike Pipkin, McConkey may have a good excuse for not surrendering furlough pay to the state. He could very well need the money for the next lawsuit.
Senator Andy Harris (R-7)
Baltimore and Harford Counties
Self-Financing, Federal Campaigns: $0
Self-Financing, State Campaigns: $65,000
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2009: 0
Furlough Days Given Up, FY 2010: 0 (So far)
Andy Harris is a three-term Senator who is an obstetric anesthesiologist by trade. He earns a comfortable living that has enabled him to make one $10,000 contribution and four different $10,000 loans to his state campaigns. Unlike Pipkin, he did not self-finance his run for the First District Congressional seat.
Harris is one of the most conservative Senators in Maryland, especially on economic issues. He has lead-sponsored bills calling for a super-majority to raise taxes, a super-majority to pass new spending and a reduction in the sales tax. He describes himself on his website as “a leading advocate for taxpayer rights” and “a fiscal conservative, fighting to keep taxes low and limit government expansion.” Besides running for Congress, Harris is best known for waging his “Porn War” against the University of Maryland.
Andy Harris is anti-spending except when the state’s money is headed into his pocket. Like Pipkin and McConkey, he has not given back furlough days to the state last year or this year.
Some legislators who have not given back furlough days say they will donate their pay to charity instead. Delegate H. Wayne Norman (R-35A) made that argument while comparing his state government to the bankrupt General Motors. There are two problems with that position. First, payment to a charity is inherently unverifiable unless the legislator produces a copy of a canceled check. Second, conservatives like Pipkin, McConkey, Harris and Norman rant endlessly about the need to reduce government spending. Paying a charity rather than returning furlough money redirects spending rather than reducing it. It’s a hollow argument with little credibility given that the legislators’ wallets are involved.
So why make excuses? Act like a conservative, give back the money and cut the budget. Otherwise, these fellows are conservatives only with regard to other people’s needs and are free-spending liberals when it comes to their own.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Five Senators and the Death Penalty
The failure of death penalty repeal in Maryland came down to the actions of five Senators. Here is their story.
To understand the part played by these five, we must first understand the sequence of the major floor votes on the death penalty. First, Senate President Mike Miller allowed the chamber to vote on whether to substitute the repeal bill for an unfavorable report from the Judiciary Proceedings Committee. This vote succeeded by a 25-22 margin and started full Senate debate on the bill.
Next, Senator James Brochin (D-42) proposed an amendment that forbade use of the death penalty in cases relying solely on eyewitness testimony. That amendment effectively changed the purpose of the bill from repeal to restrictions on the use of the death penalty. The amendment passed by a 25-21 margin, with one Senator later changing his vote to produce a 24-22 outcome.
After another amendment by Senator Robert Zirkin (D-11), Senator E.J. Pipkin (R-36) moved to send the bill back to the Judiciary Proceedings Committee. His motion would have preserved the status quo: the death penalty would have been left unchanged. It failed 23-23, keeping restrictions on the death penalty alive.
These five Senators played key roles:
Alex Mooney (R-3)
Mooney, a social conservative on most issues, was considered a swing vote on death penalty repeal. He voted to send repeal to the floor, voted for the Brochin amendment and voted to send it back to committee. Mooney was the only GOP Senator to support a floor vote. He favored amending the bill and then killing it.
John Astle (D-30)
Astle, an Anne Arundel Democrat who often has close general elections, refused to answer the Sun’s question on his death penalty position. He voted with death penalty opponents against sending repeal to the floor and initially voted for the Brochin amendment, which would have preserved the death penalty. But Astle, who said he was “wrestling” with repeal, later changed his vote to oppose the Brochin amendment. His vote change would not have defeated the Brochin amendment because it merely altered the margin from 25-21 to 24-22. Astle then voted against recommitting the bill, effectively preserving it in its amended form. He is sure to face questions about his decision-making.
Jennie Forehand (D-17)
The Sun listed Forehand as favoring repeal but she did not co-sponsor the 2009, 2008 or 2007 repeal bills. Forehand voted along with repeal supporters to send the bill to the floor. But she missed the Brochin amendment vote (which initially passed by 25-21 but later had a 24-22 margin after Astle’s vote change). Forehand told the Sun that she was in the amendment room during the Brochin vote. She later voted against recommitting the bill to committee.
Our sources cannot explain why Forehand missed the Brochin amendment vote. When Senators wish to introduce floor amendments, they do not have to physically visit the amendment room – they can just place phone calls. Furthermore, on high-profile votes, legislators who are interested in having their votes recorded rarely leave during those votes. Forehand’s departure was inexplicable, especially considering the fact that she never introduced an amendment.
Nevertheless, even if she had stayed and voted against the Brochin amendment, it would still have passed 24-23 (assuming Astle had voted against it as well). Forehand’s action by itself did not determine the bill’s fate.
Rona Kramer (D-14)
Kramer did not answer the Sun’s question on her repeal position. She voted to send the bill to the floor, voted for the Brochin amendment and voted against recommitting it. Effectively, she acted to restrict but not kill the death penalty. If both Astle and Kramer had voted against the Brochin amendment, it would have failed by a 23-23 vote. Kramer was therefore a critical player in stopping outright repeal.
Andy Harris (R-7)
As conservative blogger Brian Griffiths originally pointed out, Harris missed the recommit vote, which failed 23-23. If Harris had been present to vote in favor of recommitting, the death penalty restrictions in the Brochin amendment would have been struck down and the status quo would have been preserved. Recommit sponsor E. J. Pipkin will be sure to use this against Harris if the two run against each again for Congress.
As for Mike Miller, he is the ultimate winner. Miller gave the Governor and the many repeal supporters in his chamber the courtesy of a floor vote. The ultimate outcome was to preserve the death penalty (as Miller favors), even in a restricted form. Miller kept the debate to a couple days, thereby retaining control over the Senate’s business. And if the House passes anything different, both proposals will fail because the Senate will not go to conference.
Mike Miller was able to pull this off because he knows every one of his Senators – and just as importantly, their districts – better than anyone in Annapolis. He was probably able to forecast every single one of the above events within one or two votes. He knew repeal supporters did not have enough votes to prevail and let them have their day. His acumen is the product of twenty years experience in his position, thorough knowledge of Senate history and constant study of three generations of his colleagues.
And as for Senators Mooney, Astle, Forehand, Kramer and Harris? They will now have to face the consequences, for better or worse, of their actions in the Great Maryland Death Penalty Debate of 2009.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Death Penalty Repeal Dies in the Senate
The Maryland Senate has spoken: there will be no repeal of the death penalty this year. But we learned a few valuable things from the process.
First, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18) issued this description of today’s events:Earlier today, we finished the debate on the death penalty repeal, probably for the year. Yesterday evening, an attempt to “recommit” the repeal bill to the Judicial Proceedings Committee, a parliamentary maneuver that almost always signals the end of a bill's chance for passage, failed by a vote of 23 to 23. (One anti-repeal senator was absent.) With the votes to kill this bill with this maneuver in hand, the Democratic opponents to the repeal offered the governor a compromise this morning: accept the bill as amended yesterday and no further attempts to weaken or stop the bill would be offered. After an hour of discussion in the Senate, this position was essentially ratified when the bill was passed on to third reading. A final vote will come on Friday. The Senate President was clear that no changes from the House would be entertained later in the Session.
Here are a few things we take away from this experience:
This is a disappointing outcome for those of us who favor repeal. We can find solace in the fact that the changes in the amended bill will reduce the number of executions and significantly diminish the chances of innocent people being executed. However, this “compromise” does not address the serious racial and geographic disparities that exist in the way death penalty prosecutions work. People prosecuted in Baltimore County are twelve times more likely to be subject to the death penalty than those prosecuted in other parts of the state. In addition, while the vast majority of murder victims in our state are minorities, all of the people on death row were convicted of murdering whites. These issues will need to be addressed in the future as this effort continues. As evidenced by the votes, we are just one or two votes short of being able to win a different outcome. And, I am sure that Governor O'Malley will continue to lead this fight over the next few years.
As additional developments occur, I will certainly let you know. I deeply appreciate the hundreds of e-mails I received about this issue. I wish I could report a bigger victory, but at least progress was made this year and a full debate did finally break out on the Senate floor.
Sincerely,
Rich
1. Senate President Mike Miller proved his vote-counting skills once again. He knew from the start that repeal would not pass the Senate but he gave the Governor and death penalty opponents a fair shot.
2. Governor O’Malley is willing to dig in and fight hard on what he sees as a matter of principle, even if it means going against a substantial part of the electorate and annoying Mike Miller. Agree with him or not, the Governor showed some guts on this one.
3. Senator Andy Harris (R-7), who has already declared his intention to run for Congress again, has made a gigantic mistake on this issue. As conservative blogger Brian Griffiths has pointed out, Harris missed a key vote on sending repeal back to committee, which would have effectively killed it. And who made the motion to kill the bill? None other than Senator E.J. Pipkin (R-36), Harris’s primary opponent for Congress last year. We’ll have more on Pipkin next week.
4. Even though his district may not be as liberal as most in Montgomery County, Delegate Craig Rice (D-15) took a politically courageous risk in opposing repeal. Montgomery is full of anti-death penalty activists, but Rice’s letter to the Senators makes for compelling reading.
The real question now is what the House of Delegates will do with the Senate’s bill, which restricts use of the death penalty but does not eliminate it. Miller has indicated that he will not go to conference to reconcile different versions of the bill. But the House will have its own ideas of what to do on the issue. Generally speaking, neither chamber reacts well to a “take-it-or-leave-it” bill from the other chamber. When I asked House Majority Leader Kumar Barve (D-17) about how the House might proceed, he answered:Even though we impose a lot of discipline on the House Floor, we consider Abortion and the Death Penalty as “conscience” votes. We don’t whip these issues and we don’t really care how people vote (except that committee members keep their votes consistent on the floor and committee). So, we’re happy to have the House committee and House chamber do whatever they feel is appropriate. If Miller has a problem with that, it’s his problem, not ours.
That response means the death penalty debate may be far from over.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Death Penalty Debate Mutates
The Baltimore Sun and Maryland Moment summarize the twists and turns in today's death penalty debate. But the most interesting comments come from - surprisingly - one of the state's most liberal Senators and the state's most prominent conservative blogger.
At 2:30 PM today, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18) sent out this mass email:Earlier today and with my support, the State Senate took the unusual step to reverse a committee's recommendation and voted to place the death penalty repeal bill before the entire Senate for debate and amendment. The vote was 25 to 22. A second procedural motion to open debate only passed 24 to 23. We are now in recess for committee hearings. The Senate will readjourn at 3:30pm today for debate on potential amendments. The session is anticipated to last late until the evening. I plan to oppose all amendments to weaken the repeal.
At 6:48 PM today, Madaleno followed with this:
As can be seen by the small margins in the two votes from this morning, the outcome of the debate is still uncertain. However, I plan to vote to pass the bill and repeal the death penalty. The new maximum penalty in state law would be life with no chance of release. I will let you know as future developments occur.
RichIt is often hard to understand how quickly a bill's fortunes can change in the course of one day. Earlier today, I wrote about the success we had in moving the death penalty repeal to the Senate floor for debate. This afternoon, we took up the measure again for possible amendments. Unfortunately, on a vote of 24 to 23, the Senate adopted an amendment offered by Sen. Jim Brochin (D-Towson) that deleted the repeal and instead only prohibited the death penalty in cases where the evidence is limited to eyewitness testimony. I voted against the amendment as it essentially gutted the bill.
But while the Sun's take emphasized the role of Baltimore County Senators in beating back death penalty repeal, Red Maryland leader Brian Griffiths blamed one Republican: Senator Andy Harris (R-7). Griffiths noted that Harris missed the vote to recommit repeal back to committee, effectively keeping it alive. He wrote:
Recognizing that we now had a greatly watered down bill, Sen. Brian Frosh (D-Bethesda), the floor leader on the bill, accepted a second amendment offered by Sen. Bobby Zirkin (D-Pikesville) to add a series of evidentiary requirements that a prosecutor must satisfy in order to seek the death penalty. It is believed that these new standards would eliminate 85% of the cases where the death penalty is currently sought. While there were many more amendments drafted and ready to be offered, the chamber decided to break for the evening so that these concepts could be drafted to the bill in its new form. We will reconvene tomorrow morning at 9am to start again.
Right now, we are working on strategies to revive the repeal, but it looks like this is what may pass the Senate at this point. However, the cause is not lost as the bill could be strengthened by the House of Delegates. I will write you tomorrow as new developments occur.
RichSo on the most important social issue facing the General Assembly, Andy Harris of all people decides to take a pass.
Griffiths, Maryland's leading conservative blogger, has taken on Harris before. This vote may be a useful tool for anyone running against Harris in a future Congress District 1 primary.
I can't wait to hear the reasoning as to why Senator Harris was not present for this important vote. Because at the moment, his failure to be where he needed to be is the difference between ensuring preservation of the death penalty as a form of punishment and its elimination.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Kratovil Votes Against the Stimulus Package
Democratic Rep. Frank Kratovil (MD 1) was one of eleven House Democrats to vote against the stimulus package. Not a single Republican supported it, including Roscoe Bartlett (MD 6). Meanwhile, it appears that state Sen. Andy Harris plans to run again.
Friday, November 07, 2008
Advantage: Kratovil
In a sharp break with past experience, the Democrats have equaled Republican performance in turning out absentee voters in Congress District 1. Frank Kratovil now has a lead that will be very difficult for Andy Harris to overcome.
Yesterday, we discussed how Republicans dominated absentee ballots in District 1 back in 2006. In the nine Eastern Shore counties, Republicans cast 51.1% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 40.2%, a 10.9 point lead for the GOP. In the twelve counties that have at least part of their territory in District 1, Republicans cast 50.4% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 41.4%, a 9 point GOP lead.
But that is not the case in 2008. Throughout District 1, Democrats applied for 43.5% of absentee ballots against 42.8% for Republicans – a 0.7 point advantage for the Democrats. In terms of absentee ballots actually received by this morning, 43.8% came from Democrats and 43.0% came from Republicans – a 0.8 point advantage for the Democrats.
The Baltimore Sun reports that absentee counts have begun in all but four counties – Harford, Cecil, Talbot and Worcester. So far, Kratovil’s 915-vote lead on election day has grown to 1,871 – a pickup of 956. In the eight counties in which counting has begun, Kratovil outpolled Harris by 96,227-90,222 – a 6,005 vote or 3.2 point margin. This makes Kratovil’s additional pickup among absentee ballots a little less surprising.
So what of the four counties that have yet to be counted? On election day, they voted for Harris by a 69,778-64,688 vote or 3.8 point margin. In terms of absentee applications, 6,213 came from Republicans, 5,998 came from Democrats and 1,966 came from others. In terms of absentee ballots already returned, 5,559 came from Republicans, 5,335 came from Democrats and 1,729 came from others. That means in these four counties, 44% of the total 12,623 returned absentee ballots came from Republicans. And in order to overcome Kratovil’s lead, Harris would need to win over 57% of these ballots or benefit from an unprecedented surge of late military ballots. Both of these events are extremely unlikely. Kratovil looks like a winner.
If Kratovil holds on, it will be by far the most humiliating defeat for the Maryland GOP in the 2008 General Election. Consider the fact that District 1 was explicitly designed by Annapolis Democrats to be a Republican district. It contains the right-leaning Eastern Shore plus many of the most conservative precincts in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Also, consider the fact that the GOP historically outperforms the Democrats on absentee ballots and has a history of doing so in this Congressional District.
If Free State Republicans are defeated in their district with their tactic of choice – the absentee ballot – they are truly facing their Waterloo.
Update: The Associated Press has called the race for Kratovil.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Advantage: Harris
Absentee voter data from the 2006 race in Congress District 1 suggests that Andy Harris may very well overtake Frank Kratovil.
With 100% of the precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 160,915-160,000, or 915 votes. In the Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Harford precincts, Harris leads by 81,991 to 63,477. In the Eastern Shore precincts, Kratovil leads by 97,438-78,009. Kratovil won every Eastern Shore county and Harris won every county west of the Bay.
The election will now come down to absentee and provisional ballots. The state’s data for past Congressional elections lacks the details I used to analyze past Montgomery County data for the purpose of assessing the prospects of the Ficker amendment. But there is enough data from the 2006 election to suggest that absentee voting in District 1 trends Republican.
The state does not report 2006 polling place, absentee and provisional voting data for District 1 as a whole. But it does report those totals by county and by party. Two cuts on that data draw similar conclusions.
Cut 1: The Eastern Shore
Nine counties on the Eastern Shore (Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and Worcester) lie entirely within District 1. In 2006, they accounted for 53% of all votes cast in the District 1 general election. So far in 2008, they account for 55% of the vote. In 2006, Democrats accounted for 46% of the 130,090 votes cast at the polls while Republicans accounted for 42.8%, a 3.2 point edge. However, of the 15,181 voters who cast absentee ballots, Republicans cast 51.1% of those votes compared to just 40.2% for the Democrats. The parties were virtually even (42.3% R vs. 41.4% D) for the 1,832 provisional ballots.
Cut 2: All Twelve Counties
Large parts of Baltimore, Harford and Anne Arundel Counties are outside District 1 but the data does not allow disaggregation below the county level. Nevertheless, the trend among all twelve counties may be instructive. In 2006, 52.7% of all poll voters were Democrats compared to just 36.3% for the Republicans – a 16.4 point edge. However, Republicans accounted for 50.4% of the absentee voters compared to 41.4% for the Democrats – a 9.0 point edge in the opposite direction. That is a total swing of 25.4 points! And bear in mind that the areas of these three counties inside District 1 tend to be conservative precincts. (Democrats held a 7.0 point edge in provisional voting, but the total number of those votes was only one-fifth of the absentees.)
Either way, Republicans dramatically outperformed Democrats in the 2006 absentee vote.
The Post reports that 25,239 absentee ballots remain to be counted. If Andy Harris wins 52% of them, he would net 1,010 votes over Kratovil – enough to cover his current deficit of 915. Given past patterns, that is a conservative performance estimate for a Republican in District 1.
Unless absentee voting patterns have fundamentally changed in the last two years, Andy Harris could well be going to Congress.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Slots Passes, Bartlett Wins (Updated)
Based on county results as of 11 PM, we're calling both these contests. We are not yet calling Harris-Kratovil because too many of the Eastern Shore counties are not reporting yet.
Slots
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, approve 63-37
Baltimore City: 46,311 votes for, 30,511 against (approve 60-40)
Baltimore County: 111 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Calvert: 23 of 26 precincts, approve 63-37
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, approve 59-41
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Howard: 29 of 110 precincts, approve 56-44
Montgomery: 163 of 243 precincts, approve 52-48
Prince George's: 103 of 218 precincts, approve 59-41
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, approve 61-39
Saint Mary's: 31 of 31 precincts, approve 63-37
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, approve 67-33
Congress District 1
Baltimore County: 15 of 24 precincts, Harris 8,686-Kratovil 5,591 (61-39)
Harford: 35 of 38 precincts, Harris 21,323-Kratovil 15,539 (58-42)
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, Kratovil 11,545-Harris 9,457 (55-45)
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, Kratovil 20,591-Harris 15,487 (57-43)
Congress District 6
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, Bartlett 9,465-Dougherty 6,004 (61-39)
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, Bartlett 14,351-Dougherty 7,063 (67-33)
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, Bartlett 41,476-Dougherty 34,213 (55-45)
Harford: 9 of 12 precincts, Bartlett 6,506-Dougherty 3,200 (67-33)
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, Bartlett 19,008-Dougherty 14,866 (56-44)
Update: CNN reports that with 81% of precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 128,143 to 124,241 (50-48%).
Update 2: With 89% of precincts reporting, Kratovil's lead is down to 1,721 (135,640 to 133,919, or 49-49%).
Update 3: With 93% of precincts reporting, Kratovil now leads by 3,866 votes (145,163 to 141,297, or 50-48%). Andy Harris may not concede this race quickly because of absentee ballots, but Kratovil is in the driver's seat.
MPW Election Predictions
For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!
The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:
Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)
Here's our picks:
President by State
Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman
Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin
Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco
North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.
Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.
Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!
Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.
Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.
Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.
Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.
Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.
Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.
Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.
Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.
Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.
Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.
Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.
Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.
Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.
U.S. Senate
Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin
Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin
Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."
Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.
New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.
North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."
Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.
The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).
Maryland
U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin
U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.
Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.
MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.
MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin
We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!
Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Andy Harris Recycles--Yes, Really
The Politico reports that campaign operatives from around the nation nominated ads by Andy Harris as among the ten worst of the political season:This one makes it on sheer laziness. We can accept the occasional campaign volunteer serving as the “man on the street” for his or her candidate. But Harris took it to a new level – recycling the same exact people — and using the same exact footage — to attack both his primary opponent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest and his general election opponent, Frank Kratovil. The cherry is the ad’s title: “What people are saying about Frank Kratovil.” “Just too liberal,” says one guy in a warehouse. “He is a big spender,” says a woman in a grocery store. Both clips are from the Gilchrest ad.
See all of the worst ads here.
Monday, April 07, 2008
Andy Harris: Wrong Again
As the Senate headed toward the witching hour (that is, tonight's midnight end of the 2008 session), they were again debating the bill to give domestic partners the same exemption as other family members get from the taxes associated with modifying the title of their home. Sen. Andy Harris was spouting his usual nonsense to block gays and lesbians from equality, and the basic factual premise of his argument against this bill was just plain wrong.
As he did when the Senate debated the bill a couple of weeks ago, Harris expressed concern about how easy it would be to pretend to be DPs just to avoid tax payments. According to Harris, all the other family relationships protected by the existing exemption are based on a public government document: a marriage license that is a matter of public record. Because DPs have no such public document (a problem, by the way, that persists because of people like Harris), it would be easy to fake the relationship just to get the tax exemption.
But Harris is wrong on that score. Although spouses and ex-spouses have family relationships that have such a publicly available document, the other family relationships do not. The only government documents to prove generational relationships (parental or grandparental) are birth certificates, which are not open to the public. How exactly would a grandparent and grandchild go about proving their relationship with marriage documents, as Harris claims they can?
Of course, were someone to point out that Harris is wrong, he would not change his mind on the issue. He is simply grasping for excuses to hurt innocent gay and lesbian people.
Fortunately, tonight Harris failed. The Senate passed the bill, and it is headed toward the governor's office for a signature. Kudos to House sponsor Ann Kaiser and Senate sponsor Rona Kramer for getting the bill passed this year.
Friday, January 11, 2008
Ronald Reagan Day
Sen. Andy Harris, in a move bound to excite the Republican base in his district - to say nothing of Maryland's first Congressional district - is sponsoring a resolution “commemorating former President Ronald Reagan and proposing a day for Marylanders to pay tribute to him.”
For once, I actually agree with the good senator: Let us pay tribute to our nation’s fortieth president.
I suggest we erect a large photo of Reagan in front of every crumbling bridge, alongside every decaying road, adjacent to every dangerously decrepit piece of our deteriorating national infrastructure. Next to his photo will be written, in large letters:
Ronald Reagan said that government is the problem, not the solution. He slashed taxes and helped cement the idea that actually paying for government services is unacceptable. The decay in our national infrastructure you see here is the legacy of Ronald Reagan.
Let’s do something similar to every national institution with insufficient federal support. Schools, national parks, research labs, whatever.
And let us not ignore Reagan’s great contribution to AIDS research, to say nothing of compassion towards those with the disease. Throughout his presidency, he couldn’t even mention the word AIDS. Nor could he be bothered to take a walk across the street to see the AIDS Quilt when it came to Washington. After all, he didn’t want to alienate his “pro-family” supporters by trying to save families with gay men in them.
It’s time to be honest about the real legacy of Ronald Reagan, as well as that of a Republican Party that has followed his reflexively anti-tax, anti-government, and anti-family principles for almost 30 years.
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Sen. Andrew Harris and the Iraq War
GOP state Senator Andrew Harris's primary challenge against incumbent Congressman Wayne Gilchrest should be an interesting one to watch next year.
This is the same Sen. Harris who said on the Senate floor last April that sending members of the Maryland National Guard to war with inadequate training and dangerously deficient body armor is not a serious issue that the state should be involved with.
I wonder if the voters in Maryland's first Congressional district - especially those with loved ones in Iraq - will agree?
Friday, November 16, 2007
Madaleno Special Session Update
From the Sen. Rich Madaleno:
Progress on the governor’s comprehensive revenue package has been put on hold in the Senate as we await action in the House of Delegates. The Senate President has announced that we will not take further action until the House completes its work on slots. In fact, as I write, the House is debating the slots referendum proposal. It remains unclear at this point as to whether the House will take any action on the companion bill to regulate and administer slots. Fortunately, the Senate President also announced today that he will not scuttle the entire revenue package should the slots bill fail in the House. Should that be the outcome, the slots proposal will be brought up again during the upcoming 2008 regular session.I think Rich should endorse Andy Harris. It would probably do far more to aid Wayne Gilchrest than the ads paid for by LCV.
My colleagues from the Baltimore suburbs remain convinced that slots are essential to selling the revenue plan to their constituents. They are criticized for being tax-and-spend liberals. They believe slots softens this opposition. Interestingly, in our county, those of us who have supported the governor’s plan and the Senate compromise package have been criticized for abandoning our liberal values. It is an interesting dichotomy. The Senate caucus has both liberal and moderate factions. Progress is made only when the two find common ground, as we did with the final package.
In the meantime, the Senate is scheduled to reconvene at 11 a.m. on Saturday, and maybe again on Sunday. This weekend appears to be the deadline for action as many people have travel plans for the Thanksgiving weekend.
The Department of Legislative Services has prepared a useful summary document comparing the actions of both chambers with the governor’s initial plan. It is available at www.mlis.state.md.us under the “budget documents” tab. The major issues of disagreement concern the individual income tax and corporate tax policy. The Senate bill expands the sales tax to computer services, while the House bill has a higher corporate income tax rate and a requirement for combined reporting for corporations. Because no bill from either chamber has yet passed the other chamber, there will be no formal conference committee as is the custom for most measures. Apparently, the leadership of the various committees has been meeting to resolve differences in the bills.
On a different topic, there is a hotly contested race for the Republican nomination for the US House district that stretches from the Baltimore suburbs down to Ocean City. State Senator Andy Harris is challenging the incumbent Wayne Gilchrist. The League of Conservation Voters is running ads against Harris, one of the most conservative senators, in the Baltimore market that attack him for supporting “$100 million for dance halls in MONTGOMERY COUNTY while opposing needed funding for the Chesapeake Bay.” I would assume they are talking about the Strathmore Performing Arts Center and the Glen Echo Park’s Spanish Ballroom. It is interesting that an advocacy group would pick these two projects to attack a Baltimore area legislator. In the end, he voted for them as part of the entire capital budget not as individual projects. I am confident he would have opposed both if debated individually.
The end is near (I hope). I look forward to updating you with the final outcome of this special session.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Republican Purges Continue?
What the Club for Growth has led nationally, Bob Ehrlich is now following in Maryland.
The Club for Growth is right-wing organization dedicated primarily to defeating relatively moderate Republicans in primaries. Some of their more recent prominent efforts included supporting primary challenges to Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter and Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee. While the Club for Growth has an ardor for tax cuts, they don't feel very strongly about child health care. Major recent priorities for the Club include permanent repeal of the estate tax and calling for Republicans to sustain President Bush's veto of SCHIP reauthorization.
Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich has decided to follow the Club's modus operandi and endorse Rep. Wayne Gilchrist's (R-Eastern Shore) primary opponent, state Sen. Andrew Harris:
This is not an easy race, incumbents have a lot of advantages," Ehrlich said. "Being a party-builder is part of the job description. ... When I talk about a team player, I'm talking about a congressman who would support a sitting Republican governor doing difficult things in the minority in Annapolis, Maryland, when [Democratic leaders] Mike Busch and Mike Miller had all the cards. I didn't get that. Andy will deliver that because he understands what it means to be a team player.In other words, it is payback time. Apparently, Gilchrist wasn't sufficiently supportive of Ehrlich's belief in confronting Democrats on every occasion--a not-so-brilliant strategy in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-1 in the legislature. Notice how Ehrlich uses "team player" the same way President Bush talks about "bipartisanship". In both cases, they mean doing only exactly what fearless leader wants.
Are Republican bloggers appear ready to follow where Ehrlich leads? Monoblogue, a member of the Wicomico Republican Central Committee, is running a Club for Growth ad that Glichrist is a liberal (oh, the horror), though Brian Griffiths thinks that the numbers just don't ad up for Harris.
