The House of Representatives voted once again on February 14th on the reauthorization of the Patriot Act after it failed on February 9th. While consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, our delegation really outdid themselves this time. As one political maven commented to me: "You can smell the positioning." See who changed their votes and how after the jump.
Vote Switchers
Changed from Yes to Absent: Van Hollen (D).
Changed from No to Yes: Bartlett (R), Cummings (D), Edwards (D).
Changed from Yes to No: Harris (R), Hoyer (D).
Two Consistent Votes
Yes to Reauthorization: Ruppersberger (D).
No to Reauthorization: Sarbanes (D)
Oh, and this time the reauthorization succeeded as it needed just a majority instead of two-thirds as before when it was brought forward by the Republican leadership under rules requiring that level of support.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Patriot Act Musical Chairs
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Fourth Quarter House Campaign Finance Reports
By Marc Korman.
Back in October I wrote about campaign finance reports for the US House of Representatives candidates. Unlike state campaign finance reports, federal reports are released quarterly. Reports from the 4th quarter of 2009, covering October 1st to December 31st, are now online and it is time for an update.
1st Congressional District
In October, I wrote that Congressman Frank Kratovil is “Maryland’s most endangered incumbent.” I meant it then and it is just as true today. Unless former-Governor Ehrlich takes the plunge, this will be the only Maryland campaign to receive significant national attention in 2010.
During the 4th quarter, Kratovil raised a respectable amount and has a healthy amount in the bank. But despite that nice chunk of change, Kratovil has a lot of problems. His announced opponent, State Senator Andy Harris, is so far unopposed which is a significant improvement for him given his long primary battle in 2008 where the incumbent Republican, vanquished in the primary, endorsed the Democrat. Harris may start 2010 with less cash on hand, but he also starts with a double digit lead in the polls. In 2008 Kratovil did not pull ahead in the polls until around October, but the playing field will be very different this year now that Kratovil is an incumbent and the Democratic winds are no longer at his back.
4th Congressional District
Congresswoman Donna Edwards caught a break when Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey decided not to challenge her. But she took his potential challenge, as well as the stirrings from Delegate Herman Taylor, seriously and raised significantly more in the last quarter. She still has a lot less than a typical House incumbent, but her numbers are a significant improvement over the last quarter when she raised about $39,000 and had $56,000 in the bank.
I could not find a federal report for Delegate Herman Taylor. It is hard to see how Taylor can pull off an upset barring a scandal, especially if he does not have federal funds ready to go.
6th Congressional District
Long time incumbent Roscoe Bartlett continues his streak of not showing too much interest in fundraising or campaigning. But he is still in fine shape financially given his Republican leaning district.
One of Barlett’s potential opponents, Casey Clark, is making a spirited showing. Since Clark began his campaign, he has raised approximately $95,000. That presents two problems. First, it is significantly less than the $150,000 Clark claimed to have raised earlier in January. Though it is possible he raised $50,000 more in January. Second, that is just nowhere near enough to be competitive against a long time incumbent who has so much more in the bank and will be assisted by national Republicans if he is seriously threatened.
2006 Democratic nominee Andrew Duck continues to have low fundraising. His only hope of getting through the primary is significant grassroots support built up over two previous runs.
8th Congressional District
Congressman Chris Van Hollen is safe in his district, but has a lot of insurance with his multi-million dollar campaign account. A significant sum of that impressive total will be directed to House races across the country as part of Van Hollen’s efforts as DCCC Chair. The outcome of the midterm elections could have a huge impact on Van Hollen’s future in the House. He originally did not want to return as DCCC Chair, was persuaded to by Speaker Pelosi, and now may be in charge of the political arm of the House Democrats in a brutal election year. It is early and November is a long way away, but if House Democrats suffer serious setbacks, Van Hollen will look less like a “Man of the House” and more like a future Senate candidate.
And All The Rest
All of the other Maryland incumbent House members should coast to reelection. They are all well positioned financially. Each has a minimum of $500,000 in the bank and raised in the six figures last quarter.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Eight for Eight: Casey Clark for Congress, Part Three
By Marc Korman.
In Part One, we took a look at Maryland’s 6th Congressional District and incumbent Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. In Part Two, we talked about one of his challengers, Casey Clark, and the issues he is highlighting. In Part Three, we will assess Clark’s chances of victory.
To take Bartlett on in November, Clark will need to win the primary in September. So far, his only opponent is Andrew Duck, an Army veteran who served in Bosnia and Iraq. Duck was the nominee in 2006 and lost the primary to Jennifer Dougherty in 2008. He is better known by the Democratic electorate than Casey and many probably feel indebted to Duck for his efforts, over many years, to take on Bartlett. Casey, by his own admission, did not do much to help the Democrats in 2006 or 2008 in the district. But Clark’s $150,000 haul so far dwarfs Duck’s, who at the last filing deadline had raised under $5,000.
Clark also has some baggage in a party primary: he was formerly a Republican. In 1988 he supported New York Congressman Jack Kemp for President. By 1992, with the Republican Party shifting rightward on social issues such as choice, Casey became a Democrat and has been there ever since. He still describes himself as a fiscal conservative.
If Clark makes it through the primary, he will be going up against a long term incumbent in a Republican leaning district. Even in two back to back wave years, hard running Democrats could not even keep Bartlett to the 55% largely viewed as a sign of incumbent vulnerability. Clark believes his energy and fundraising will help turn the tide against Bartlett, who does not want to put much effort into a campaign.
Clark has a few hurdles in executing his strategy. First, there are other fish to fry, so to speak, in Maryland. Frank Kratovil narrowly won in 2008 and is on track for an extremely hard race this year. What national resources are funneled to Maryland will likely go to the Maryland 1st.
Clark also takes an optimistic view of Bartlett’s vulnerabilities. It is true, as Clark says, that Bartlett has had declining vote totals. He received 67% in 2004 and saw a decline to 59% in 2006 and 57.8% in 2004. But those declines came in two wave years which are unlikely to be repeated. Bartlett’s fundraising may have also slowed down, but he has $313,917 cash on hand which is about his high for the last ten years despite two spirited challenges.
But Clark is doing everything he needs to do to position himself to be competitive. He is raising money, talking to voters, and learning the issues. He is not running as a national Democrat, but as a person who wants to work hard for his Congressional district. He is conversant on policy issues and has a pragmatic view of the politics involved in running and winning. If he keeps up his intensity, he could give the Democrats a fighting chance in Maryland’s 6th Congressional District. With a little bit (okay, a lot) of luck, Democrats could even go 8 for 8 in Maryland and sweep the House seats.
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Eight for Eight: Casey Clark for Congress, Part Two
By Marc Korman.
Last time we discussed the Maryland 6th Congressional district and its incumbent, Roscoe Bartlett. Today we will look at one of the candidates trying to take him on.
Thus far, there are two announced Democratic candidates in the 6th District: 2006 nominee and 2008 primary candidate Andrew Duck and first time candidate Casey Clark. I recently spent some time talking to Casey Clark about the race and his candidacy.
Clark sees vulnerability in Roscoe Bartlett for a few reasons. First, although it looks to be a good election season for Republicans, Clark believes it will be a poor one for incumbents. That is especially true in economically stagnant communities like those throughout the 6th District. Second, Bartlett has had declining vote totals, fundraising, and political activity over the last few years. According to Clark, Bartlett has indicated he wants to be reelected but does not want to spend too much money, time, or energy on it.
Clark believes that a concerted effort by Democrats all over Maryland, famous for providing national political dollars, could help him oust Bartlett. He has already raised $150,000, almost as much as Jennifer Dougherty raised during the entire 2008 cycle. Clark has also been working the district through dozens of meetings a week with local elected officials, union leaders, school officials, and business owners. His campaign is being run by a professional campaign manager, a former executive director of the South Dakota Democratic Party.
Casey Clark’s background is unconventional for a politician. For most of his professional career he has been a TV journalist. Clark views his TV journalism career as a type of public service and he cites several experiences he had at exposing crime or fraud. These include exposing a drug laundering operation at a hospital in Fort Meyers, Florida and finding poor maintenance at the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant in a scenario that sounded like The China Syndrome. Closer to his district, Clark helped expose massive pollution in the Chesapeake Bay coming from a Centreville sewage treatment plant, a story WBAL-TV in Baltimore won a Peabody Award for in 2004.
Since 2005, Clark has worked at his family business, The Three Amigos, a clothing label manufacturer. The small business is based in the 6th District.
The issues Clark is highlighting are jobs and energy.
According to Clark, the further north and west you go in his district the farther back in time you go from a retail oriented economy, to extraction industries in the western counties, to almost no economic activity besides tourism. Clark believes that as a Congressman he can work with state and local officials to draw businesses to the district. He says he would have supported the stimulus if he had a vote because he believes the government must turn on the spigot when no one else is spending. TARP would have also received his support because the economy was on the verge of collapse.
Energy is one of Roscoe Bartlett’s major issues. He founded the Peak Oil Caucus in Congress and holds an annual event to highlight green jobs and development. But Bartlett voted against the cap and trade bill that passed the House of Representatives last summer. Casey indicated he would have supported the bill and that Bartlett failing to do so showed he picked political pandering over his own beliefs.
In Part Three, we will discuss Casey’s chances of taking down the Republican incumbent.
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Eight for Eight: Casey Clark for Congress, Part One
By Marc Korman.
Seven of Maryland’s eight seats in the US House of Representatives are currently represented by Democrats. In Maryland’s 6th district, Republican Roscoe Bartlett has been holding office since 1992. Candidate Casey Clark hopes to break that winning streak. In three parts, we will take a look at the incumbent and the district, challenger Casey Clark, and his chances.
I last discussed the 6th District in July of 2008, when Democrats were optimistic that former Frederick Mayor Jennifer Dougherty would be able to knock off the incumbent. Here is how I described Bartlett then:Roscoe Bartlett is 82 years old [now 83] and sits on three House Committees: Armed Services, Small Business, and Science. The House of Representatives was Bartlett’s first political office, although he ran unsuccessfully for Congress once before. He has had a diverse career including working as a teacher, a research scientist, inventor, businessman, and farmer. He has 20 research patents to his name.
Dougherty won 38.8% of the vote in 2008, slightly better than Andrew Duck’s 38.4% in 2006. Dougherty held Bartlett to 57.8% of the vote, his worst performance since 1996. Even in two Democratic wave years of 2006 and 2008, the district leans Republican. As I described it in 2008, the 6th District
In Congress, Bartlett is known for his science background and his involvement in naval issues. He does not have much of a record of passing legislation. Looking through the Library of Congress’ bill tracker, there is no indication that Bartlett passed a single bill or amendment on the floor during his entire Congressional career. To be fair, that does not necessarily mean he has not done anything, as often times legislation is combined with other bills or amended in committee.
In 2008, John McCain received 58% of the vote in the district to Barack Obama’s 40%.
includes Frederick, Alleghany, Carroll, Garrett, and Washington counties and parts of Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties. The district also has six, sparsely populated precincts in Montgomery County. The district map can be seen here. Since 1993, the 6th district has been represented by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. Bartlett has won the district with over 55% of the vote since 1992. It was specifically drawn for a Republican, going for President Bush with 61% of the vote in 2000 and 65% in 2004.
Next time, we will meet one of Bartlett’s challengers in 2010.
Thursday, January 22, 2009
The Work of Our Congressional Delegation, Part Two
By Marc Korman.
My last entry examined the committee assignments of four of Maryland’s Congressmembers and what issues they might deal with in the coming year. Today we will take a look at the remaining four.
Majority Leader Steny Hoyer
As Majority Leader, Steny Hoyer has no committee assignments. On the other hand, he is in every meeting of the Congressional leadership and helps to craft and pass all of the legislation that goes through the House of Representatives. He also helps to determine the schedule, so the timing of major Obama initiatives will be signed off on by Hoyer. Will new regulations for global warming pass in 2009? When will healthcare be dealt with? Hoyer will weigh in on these decisions.
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett
The lone Republican in Maryland’s Congressional delegation serves on the Armed Forces Committee, Science and Technology Committee, and the Small Business Committee.
On the Armed Forces Committee, where Barltett just lost a bid to become the top Republican, he is considered a naval expert. That is no small matter for a state that houses the Naval Academy.
Barlett also has a background in science that equips him for the Science and Technology Committee, where he will address the same issues as Congresswoman Edwards mentioned last week.
The Small Business Committee has jurisdiction over the Small Business Administration (SBA) and the various federal programs to support and develop small businesses. According to the SBA, Maryland is home to 511,805 small businesses, which has the amorphous definition of a business that is “independently owned and operated and which is not dominant in its field of operation.” The amount of small businesses in Maryland has probably shrunk during the current recession.
Congressman Elijah Cummings
Congressman Cummings sits on three House Committees: Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I), Armed Services, and Oversight and Government Reform.
Oversight and Government Reform has been extremely active over the last two years, since the Democrats became the majority in the House of Representatives, investigating the Bush Administration. It remains remains to be seen how active they will be in keeping watch over the Obama Administration.
On T&I, in addition to the major transportation bill, Congressman Cummings will likely continue his chairmanship of the Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation Subcommittee. That Subcommittee helps oversee port security, an important issue for Congressman Cummings’ Baltimore district.
Congressman Chris Van Hollen
Unlike Maryland’s other member of the House leadership, Van Hollen maintains his committee assignments. He serves on the Ways and Means Committee and Oversight and Government Reform.
As Obama pushes forward with tax reform, both in the stimulus and because the Bush tax policies expire in 2010, Congressman Van Hollen’s committee has a central role.
On Oversight and Government Reform, Congressman Van Hollen is in the unique position of being the Representatives for many of the government workers being overseen. As one staffer told me, this means that he needs to be at every hearing since it is his constituents testifying. It also increases the stakes for his participation in committee activities.
Committee work is just one part of a Congressmembers’ contribution. But it is the area where they have the potential to have the biggest impact. Regardless of which committee each Congressmember serves on, there is a full agenda for Congress in the coming year.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Slots Passes, Bartlett Wins (Updated)
Based on county results as of 11 PM, we're calling both these contests. We are not yet calling Harris-Kratovil because too many of the Eastern Shore counties are not reporting yet.
Slots
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, approve 63-37
Baltimore City: 46,311 votes for, 30,511 against (approve 60-40)
Baltimore County: 111 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Calvert: 23 of 26 precincts, approve 63-37
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, approve 59-41
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Howard: 29 of 110 precincts, approve 56-44
Montgomery: 163 of 243 precincts, approve 52-48
Prince George's: 103 of 218 precincts, approve 59-41
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, approve 61-39
Saint Mary's: 31 of 31 precincts, approve 63-37
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, approve 67-33
Congress District 1
Baltimore County: 15 of 24 precincts, Harris 8,686-Kratovil 5,591 (61-39)
Harford: 35 of 38 precincts, Harris 21,323-Kratovil 15,539 (58-42)
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, Kratovil 11,545-Harris 9,457 (55-45)
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, Kratovil 20,591-Harris 15,487 (57-43)
Congress District 6
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, Bartlett 9,465-Dougherty 6,004 (61-39)
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, Bartlett 14,351-Dougherty 7,063 (67-33)
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, Bartlett 41,476-Dougherty 34,213 (55-45)
Harford: 9 of 12 precincts, Bartlett 6,506-Dougherty 3,200 (67-33)
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, Bartlett 19,008-Dougherty 14,866 (56-44)
Update: CNN reports that with 81% of precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 128,143 to 124,241 (50-48%).
Update 2: With 89% of precincts reporting, Kratovil's lead is down to 1,721 (135,640 to 133,919, or 49-49%).
Update 3: With 93% of precincts reporting, Kratovil now leads by 3,866 votes (145,163 to 141,297, or 50-48%). Andy Harris may not concede this race quickly because of absentee ballots, but Kratovil is in the driver's seat.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Jennifer Dougherty for Congress
By Marc Korman.
Recently, Jennifer Dougherty paid a visit to the Montgomery County Young Democrats at their monthly meeting. Dougherty is running for Congress in the 6th district of Maryland, which includes Frederick, Alleghany, Carroll, Garrett, and Washington counties and parts of Baltimore, Harford, and Howard counties. The district also has six, sparsely populated precincts in Montgomery County. The district map can be seen here. Since 1993, the 6th district has been represented by Congressman Roscoe Bartlett. Barlett has won the district with over 55% of the vote since 1992. It was specifically drawn for a Republican, going for President Bush with 61% of the vote in 2000 and 65% in 2004. So what is Dougherty’s game plan for knocking off the incumbent?
The Incumbent
Roscoe Bartlett is 82 years old and sits on three House Committees: Armed Services, Small Business, and Science. The House of Representatives was Bartlett’s first political office, although he ran unsuccessfully for Congress once before. He has had a diverse career including working as a teacher, a research scientist, inventor, businessman, and farmer. He has 20 research patents to his name.
In Congress, Bartlett is known for his science background and his involvement in naval issues. He does not have much of a record of passing legislation. Looking through the Library of Congress’ bill tracker, there is no indication that Bartlett passed a single bill or amendment on the floor during his entire Congressional career. To be fair, that does not necessarily mean he has not done anything, as often times legislation is combined with other bills or amended in committee.
The Challenger
Jennifer Dougherty was a one term mayor of Frederick from 2001 to 2005, beating a two term incumbent. However, she lost the Democratic primary in 2005. Dougherty has owned and operated a number of businesses in Frederick. Earlier this year, she defeated Iraq war veteran Andrew Duck for the Democratic Congressional nomination. Duck had run against Bartlett in 2006, keeping him to his lowest share of the vote since 1996. Although that was still a 59% victory for Bartlett.
In describing her mayoral term, Dougherty discussed her work to increase jobs in Frederick and improving public safety through police reform.
The Issues
Dougherty focused on three issues she thought would be important in the upcoming election. The first was energy/gas prices. Bartlett has a long history of discussing peak oil, the idea that oil is a finite resource, but Dougherty believes his record is lacking. Bartlett supported the Bush Administration’s Energy Policy Act in 2005, which is largely regarded as too generous to fossil fuels, at the expense of alternatives. The second issue was the economy, with Dougherty discussing some of the truly impoverished areas of the 6th district where jobs are sorely needed. She discussed the need to balance the free market with sensible regulation. The final issue mentioned was public safety, including homeland security issues, especially those stemming from Fort Detrick in Frederick.
The Plan
But those issues have little to do with how Dougherty really plans to become a Congresswoman. Her real plan can best be summarized as the two Bs: Bush and Bartlett.
The only reason the 6th Congressional district is in play is because the Republican brand is decimated thanks to President Bush. Dougherty needs to position herself to ride the Democratic wave, if it exists, on Election Day.
To help position herself for that wave, Dougherty needs to spend time talking about Bartlett. One issue that Dougherty probably will not discuss, but she has been asked about, is Bartlett’s age. Another issue now on the table is Bartlett’s property sales and his failure to disclose his estimated income. But the issue Dougherty brought up when she spoke is effectiveness, noting Bartlett’s lack of legislative accomplishment. Although Dougherty did not mention it, I know that Bartlett has introduced legislation for several years to allow GI Bill education benefits to be transferred from the servicemember to a family member. But it took a Democratic Congress and a Democratic Senator, Jim Webb, to actually turn it into law.
The Chances
So what are Dougherty’s chances? She likely needs a big Democratic wave to take the seat. As discussed above, the district is made for a Republican. Dougherty is also behind in fundraising. She only had $41,000 cash on hand, compared to $337,000 for Bartlett after the last fundraising quarter. Dougherty also mentioned her plan to canvass every house in certain neighborhoods, as opposed to limiting herself to registered voters or some other type of targeted effort. That demonstrates, to me, a lack of a serious campaign plan. Alternatively, she has an ambitious neighbor to neighbor phone banking plan that asks volunteers to make just a few phone calls a day to maximize the time of her volunteers and impact on voters.
While Dougherty has an uphill battle, the past two years have shown Democrats can win in unexpected places. If Jennifer Dougherty works hard, raises some money, and knocks on the right doors, she could be positioned to ride the wave to the Capitol.
