Harford is a very Republican county in a very Democratic state. As in Frederick, the population growth that warrants giving additional representation to the area would seemingly be good news for the GOP. Except that it all depends on how the lines are drawn.
The 2010 Census revealed that Harford now has enough population for almost complete two legislative districts--an increase of virtually a full delegate over ten years ago. The above map shows one sample plan for two districts in Harford. Bear in mind that the population figures may be a bit off as Maryland requires that the numbers be readjusted to reallocate the prison population to their last known address.
As shown here, the northern district would be very Republican--it went for McCain over Obama by a margin of 67-31. It somewhat resembles current District 35 except that the current district takes in Bel Air and the map above would place it in the southern district. District 35 is divided into two subdistricts--including one centered on Bel Air which elects one delegate. The senator and all three delegates are Republicans.
The southern district would lean marginally to the Democrats in presidential elections. Obama carried it over McCain by 50-48 but Democrats fared considerably better in state elections. This district resembles current House of Delegates Subdistrict 34A (though that district does not include Bel Air) which now elects one Democrat and one Republican. District 34 has a Republican senator.
One might expect that the new version of District 34 would be highly competitive. Except that I suspect that someone with access to software that allowed one to fine tune the lines to a higher degree than I used here--and no doubt anyone doing this for real would have that access--could draw the map so that it leans more strongly to the Democrats.
Another alternative would be to create a two-member subdistrict that would likely send two Democrats to the House in Annapolis and a one-member subdistrict centered on Bel Air that would be much more likely to elect a Republican even as the Senate seat remained marginal.
In short, the Democrats may well be no worse off--and may even benefit--from gains in representation in a county that leans to the Republicans. The geographic political divide--Republicans tend to live in northern Harford while Democrats are concentrated in southern Harford--facilitates a maps with this result.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
Harford State Legislative Districts?
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Party Performance in Baltimore County, Harford County and the Upper Shore
How do the parties do in Baltimore County, Harford and the upper shore?
Baltimore County
14.2% of Registered Voters (3rd)
Leans Democrat
Republicans win seats in the districts Baltimore County shares with Carroll County (Legislative District 5) and Harford County (Legislative District 7). Otherwise, Democrats win most of the time, especially in districts that border the city. The fact that Governor Martin O’Malley almost defeated former Baltimore County Congressman Bob Ehrlich here this year says something about this jurisdiction. Here’s another fact: in the 54 years that the County Executive office has been in existence, the GOP has occupied it in just eight years. And one of those occupants was Spiro Agnew.
Harford County
4.3% of Registered Voters (7th)
Solid Republican
Harford has largely completed a transition to GOP control that took about twenty-five years. The Democrats did not bother to run candidates for County Executive or a majority of County Council seats this year. All three Senators and seven of eight Delegates are Republicans.
Cecil County
1.7% of Registered Voters (12th)
Solid Republican
Cecil is a rare GOP success story in Maryland. Eight years ago, most of its elected officials were Democrats. This year, voters supported just three Democrats: Delegate David Rudolph, the county’s Register of Wills and one Judge of the Orphans’ Court. (Unopposed Attorney General Doug Gansler is the fourth Democratic “win.”) Can the GOP learn anything from Harford and Cecil Counties that could help it build strength in the rest of the state?
Kent County
0.4% of Registered Voters (24th)
Split
Kent County, the smallest jurisdiction in Maryland, goes both ways. Its District 36 statehouse delegation is totally Republican. Its county government is dominated by Democrats. Kent voted for Ehrlich but also voted for Mikulski and Kratovil this year – an unusual combination.
Queen Anne’s County
0.9% of Registered Voters (18th)
Solid Republican
The only Democrats who won this year in Queen Anne’s were the Register of Wills, the State’s Attorney and Gansler. The latter two ran unopposed. The GOP had just one seat on the County Commission in 2006. This year they swept all five.
We’ll look at the Central and Lower Eastern Shore tomorrow.
Saturday, February 07, 2009
Harford County GOP War Escalates (Updated)
As first reported by Judd Legum and the Baltimore Sun's blog, the Harford County Republican House Delegation is now in the midst of a savage civil war. That war is escalating. Delegate Rick Impallaria (R-7) is filing an ethics complaint against fellow Republicans Donna Stifler (R-35A) and J.B. Jennings (R-7), which we reproduce in full below. Among other things, Impallaria calls Stifler a "kook" and says, "I stand by that statement and still believe it to be solid and true."
Click on each of the below images for a larger view.
Update: The Dagger has more on this amazing feud.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
Second Senator Steps Down
Sen. J. Robert Hooper (R-Harford) is stepping down from the Maryland Senate due to health problems and the demands of the special session. He has already recommended Del. Barry Glassman as his replacement who will be chosen by the Harford County Republican Central Committee.
Just one year out and we're already down two senators out of forty seven.
