Tax Policy: The Right Approach vs. The Right's Approach

Since tax increases are a vital part of Governor O'Malley's budget proposal, we're hearing all the predictable anti-tax grumbling that comes whenever our society talks taxes.

Ever since the political ascendancy of Ronald Reagan and his anti-tax philosophy, our nation has been on a collision course with disaster. For a generation now, the GOP has framed taxes not as the cost of getting things done, but as part of a war by the government against the people: Their refrain: "The government wants to take your hard-earned money and spend it themselves. But the American people know how to spend their money better than the government does."

But the government is the American people. Once we jettison that idea, we abandon the fundamental premise of representational democracy and label our federal, state, and local elected governments as illegitimate.

Over the next weeks, we in Maryland need to take a hard look at our state and local needs. There are a few million too many of us in Maryland to fit into a meeting place and efficiently do this ourselves, so we ask our elected delegates and senators act on our behalf.

And we ask them to approach the issue rationally. This requires answering two questions:

First: What do we, as a society, have as our priorities?
Only then can we ask the next question: How do we go about raising the funds to effect those priorities?

Notice that Republicans tend to switch the questions around. They ask first what we feel like paying, independent of what our actual needs and priorities are. After answering that question, they turn around and say we can't afford to fix Social Security, rescue Medicare, or provide health insurance to kids.

Whenever the issue of taxes comes up, Republicans reflexively complain that our taxes are too high. But they don't say how they've reached that conclusion. How can we determine that our taxes are too high if we haven't first determined what our needs are?

Do we want to fix our system public education system? Do we want to prevent our bridges and roads from decaying? Do we want to help older Marylanders get access to necessary medical care? Do we want to keep toxins out of the environment? Do we want to prevent victims of drug addiction in Baltimore from contracting HIV? (Sen. Mooney apparently offers up a big NO to that one, lovely man that he is).

We must first answer these questions before we can decide whether our taxes are at the appropriate level.

Over the past few months, the employees of the Department of Legislative Services in Annapolis have worked incredibly hard to come up with the costs and benefits associated with various state policies and programs. Before deciding how much I want to pay in taxes, I'm going to take a hard look at the numbers. And I'll be asking my senator and three delegates to do the same.

Read More...

Summary only...

Adam Pagnucco on the Budget: Part II

Adam Pagnucco of Crossing Georgia has been kind enough to share this detailed analysis of the budget. If you missed Part I, you can read it here.

Part Two: Is the Governor’s Plan Progressive or Regressive?

First, let’s finish looking at the remaining elements in the Governor’s proposal. Then we will be able to determine the plan’s relative reliance on progressive and regressive measures.

Corporate Income Tax

The Governor proposes to increase Maryland’s corporate income tax rate from 7% to 8%, raising $110 million in FY 2009. The new higher rate would still be lower than Pennsylvania (9.99%), the District (9.975%), New Jersey (9%), West Virginia (8.75%), and Delaware (8.7%), but higher than North Carolina (6.9%) and Virginia (6%). Given the facts that Maryland could easily raise its corporate income tax even more and still be close to most of its neighbors and that 66% of Post poll respondents approved of this hike, the state’s business community should be relieved that the increase is not larger.

Corporate Income Tax: Progressive, 7% of Package

Expansion of Sales Tax Base

Maryland’s sales tax does not apply to most services. According to the Federation of Tax Administrators, of 168 potential services to be taxed, Maryland taxes just 39. The District of Columbia taxes 70 and Virginia taxes 18. The Governor proposes to apply the sales tax to tanning salons, health club membership, massage services and real estate management, bringing in $74 million in FY 2009.

Because there are well over 100 types of services that would still be untaxed, there are vast opportunities for more revenue in this category. Jeffrey Birnbaum and Alan Murray’s brilliant book Showdown at Gucci Gulch (which should be required reading for all tax policy-makers) tells the story of how Congressman Dan Rostenkowski, Senator Bill Bradley and the Reagan Administration teamed up to lower marginal income tax rates by closing loopholes and exemptions in 1986. A similar approach to the sales tax might at least partially ameliorate a rate increase.

While real estate management might be passed on partly to renters, it is hard to say that the other services are used disproportionately by the poor. Overall, I assign this a neutral impact.

Expansion of Sales Tax: Neutral, 4% of Package

Property Tax and Sales Tax Relief

The Governor actually cuts two taxes in his proposal, losing revenues for the state. He proposes reducing the property tax rate by 3 cents per $100, costing $54 million in FY 2009 (and much more in later years). He also offers two sales tax-free weeks on clothes and two tax-free weekends on energy efficient appliances, costing $13 million per year.

The property tax decrease will disproportionately benefit people whose wealth is concentrated in their homes, many of whom are seniors or middle class. The tax-free periods will tend to benefit the poor and middle class. Since both measures cost the government money rather than raise it, I list them as offsets to the regressive features of the proposal.

Property Tax and Sales Tax Relief: Regressive Reduction of 4% of Package

Corporate Loopholes

The Governor would like to close two corporate loopholes. First, he would like to implement “combined reporting,” which would make it more difficult for corporations to reduce Maryland taxable income by assigning it to other states. Second, he would like to do away with commercial real estate owners’ use of shell companies to sell property without paying transfer taxes. Both measures are expected to raise a combined $36 million each year.

Corporate Loopholes: Progressive, 2% of Package

Slots

The Governor originally proposed a slots plan which he said would be loosely modeled on a bill passed by the House of Delegates in 2005, which would have authorized 9,500 machines. He estimated the plan would produce just $27 million of revenue in FY 2009 but would eventually bring in $550 million by FY 2012.

Opponents depict slots as regressive, alleging that poor people would gamble higher proportions of their income than the rich. Is it possible to have “progressive” gambling? Instead of relying on slots, the state could sell licenses for table games to luxury hotels requiring fifty dollar minimum bets. Wealthy gamblers could be seduced by endless champagne, sushi and Godiva chocolates. Some might even come in from Pennsylvania and Virginia which (so far) do not have table games. But such a proposal would fail because it would not generate as much revenue as the “one-armed bandits” and slots opponents tend to oppose all gambling, not just machines.

There is now a chance that the legislature will propose a slots referendum to be voted on next year rather than a slots bill. If that happens, there may be even more machines (perhaps 15,000) to compensate for the delay in the revenue stream. Sixty-eight percent of Post poll respondents supported slots, giving any referendum a fair chance of passage. If the referendum fails, state politicians may have to consider more taxes and/or cuts in 2009, something none of them wants to do so close to an election year. In any case, slots produce more money in out years than in the near term.

Slots: Regressive, 2% of Package (Rising to 24% of Package in FY 2012)

How Progressive is the Package?

Our calculations of the Governor’s deficit reduction proposal in FY 2009 are:

Amount in $ millions (Percentage)

Progressive Measures

Income Tax Restructuring: $162 (10%)
Corporate Income Tax Hike: 110 (7)
Closing Corporate Loopholes: 36 (2)

Total Progressive: $308 (18%)

Neutral Measures

Budget Cuts (non-education): $268 (16%)
Sales Tax Expansion: 74 (4)

Total Neutral: $342 (20%)

Regressive Measures

Sales Tax Hike: $730 (43%)
Tobacco Tax Hike: 170 (10)
Lower Education Spending Growth: 169 (10)
Slots: 27 (2)
Offsets for Property Tax,
Sales Tax Relief: -67 (-4)

Total Regressive: $1,029 (61%)

Total, All Measures: $1,679

The deficit reduction package is primarily regressive, principally because of its heavy reliance on the sales tax. The situation would be worse in FY 2012 as slots rise to 24% of the deficit reduction package, making it 70% regressive overall.

In Part Three, I propose an alternative revenue raiser that could be used to reduce the plan’s reliance on regressive solutions.

Adam Pagnucco is the Assistant to the General President of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and has been employed in the labor movement since 1994. The views in this column are his alone and do not represent official statements from the union.

Read More...

Summary only...

Montgomery County Development Watch

The Montgomery County Council approved increasing fees on developers in two test votes yesterday:

In test votes on proposed revisions to the county's growth policy, designed to get a sense of the nine-member council, a majority supported increasing fees on new development to help cover the cost of more students and classrooms. For a public elementary school, for instance, the fee would increase from $12,500 to $19,514, far less than the $32,524 recommended by the Planning Board.

However, the Council was tightly divided over a proposed amendment allowing developers off the hook if they include more affordable housing:

"Adding significant costs will have remarkable implications, if not death-toll implications, for affordable housing," said council member Nancy Floreen (D-At Large), who was joined by George L. Leventhal (D-At Large), Michael Knapp (D-Upcounty) and Valerie Ervin (D-Silver Spring).

Council member Marc Elrich (D-At Large) criticized some of his colleagues' focus on moderately priced housing. "To hang this process around affordable housing is a joke. What this county does is next to nothing," he said.

The amendment was rejected by Elrich, Phil Andrews (D-Gaithersburg-Rockville), Roger Berliner (D-Potomac-Bethesda), Marilyn Praisner (D-Eastern County) and Duchy Trachtenberg (D-At Large).

My guess is this battle is just a preview for the critical fight over how traffic congestion is measured. In growth-policy speak, these are called the Local Area Transportation Review (LATR) and the Policy Area Mobility Review (PAMR). The Council won't take test votes on that until next Tuesday. Developers are clearly unhappy about those proposed changes as well, though residents have consistently expressed anger over the lax standards at public meetings on the topic.

The Action Committee for Transit (ACT) and Coalition for Smarter Growth sent out a press release (not posted to either website yet) opposing the proposed changes which would tighten the policy (read: inch these measures a tad closer to measuring the real level of traffic). Indeed, the press release made it quite clear that ACT wants to push the pedal to the metal on development around Metro stops, claiming that development does not increase traffic in those area, using Rosslyn and Ballston as examples.

I imagine many in the County would be surprised to learn that Bethesda and Silver Spring are not experiencing sufficient development or increases in density. In any case, this press release demonstrates the close alliance between ACT, the Coalition, and development interests. Moreover, failing to tighten the LATR would hardly combat sprawl as it would allow more development not just by Metro but everywhere in the County.

The press release also doesn't mention one key fact: both the existing and the proposed policy already allow for substantially higher congestion by Metro stops. Even if the LATR changes are approved, density will still continue to increase around Metro stops at a rapid pace. Indeed, people on the other side of the debate argue that the controls still don't measure the impact of development on congestion in a realistic manner.

The County did approve measures related to tighten school capacity requirements. Existing rules allow developers to build new homes even if the schools are full by borrowing school capacity from neighboring school districts. According to the Post, the Council approved tighter restrictions than recommended by the Planning Board but did not go as far as County Executive Leggett suggested.

Read More...

Summary only...

Special Session Roundup

The Washington Post reports on the many bills being introduced during the special session. Sen. Forehand (D-Montgomery) wants to: "increase the tax on alcoholic beverages from $1.50 to $3.50 a gallon for distilled spirits, from 40 cents to $1 a gallon for wine and from 9 to 25 cents a gallon for beer." Meanwhile, Alex Mooney (R-Frederick) seems determined to prove that he is every bit the stupid jerk claimed by his political opponents:

Meanwhile, Sen. Alexander X. Mooney (R-Frederick) is pushing to cut state funding of the AIDS prevention needle exchange program in Baltimore. "They say, 'You Republicans should come up with something to cut,' " Mooney said. "Here's something."

There you go, budget problem solved. Of course, the increased cost to the State in higher costs for care for AIDS patients will probably make this "cut" a net expenditure. But it shouldn't hurt the Moon Man's inevitable congressional run.

Sen. Barbara Frush (D-Prince George's) has proposed to eliminate the ICC. That bill has been referred to the Rules Committee which is a fancy way of saying sent away to die. Meanwhile, Gov. Martin O'Malley outlined how he plans to raise the money if slots doesn't pass:

O'Malley would shelve his plan to roll back the state property tax rate from 11.2 cents to 8.2 cents per $100 in assessed value.

About $300 million a year in dedicated school construction funding would not materialize. Nor would $60 million a year in dedicated funding to universities that could be used to hold down tuition costs.

O'Malley's proposal to expand access to health care would help fewer people, becoming a $100 million-a-year initiative rather than a $250 million-a-year initiative once fully phased in.

The Baltimore Sun ran a similar story on O'Malley's plans if slots aren't passed in addition to another story on a site being eyed by Baltimore City as a slots location. Meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown ties BRAC sweeteners to passing O'Malley's tax plan. The Annapolis Capital has a general story on the General Assembly's debate over O'Malley's plan.

In short, O'Malley and Brown are starting to put the screws to the legislature to get their budget plan passed. Whether or not you like the plan, this is a smart move by the Governor as nothing is going to happen unless he start pushing hard for it.

Read More...

Summary only...

Proposal to Change MCDCC Membership

Senator Nancy King and Delegate Charles Barkley (D-39) have sponsored a bill to change the composition of the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee. MCDCC currently has 23 members with two elected from each of the eight state legislative districts within the county and the remaining seven elected at-large. The bill would expand the size of the MCDCC to 27 members with three elected from each of the eight state legislative districts and the remaining three elected at-large. The composition of the Republican Central Committee would be left unaltered--the same as the MCDCC before the change.

A hearing for the King-Barkley bill is scheduled currently for November 8th at 7pm in the third floor hearing room of the Stella Werner Council Building in Rockville. A hearing on Delegate Saqib Ali's bill to require open votes for filling state legislative vacancies (cosponsored Delegates Gutierrez, Heller, and Montgomery) is scheduled for November 15th for 7pm at the same location (see also the Gazette article). However, one can imagine that both hearings will be postponed due to the special session.

Read More...

Summary only...

Gaithersburg Endorsements

The Gazette has endorsed Cathy Drzyzgula, Jud Ashman, and Ryan Spiegel for Gaithersburg City Council. Meanwhile Progressive Maryland, SEIU's Local 400, UFCW's Local 1994, and the Coalition of Asian Pacific Americans have endorsed Ahmed Ali, Carlos Solis, and Ryan Spiegel (see flyer below).

Read More...

Summary only...

Adam Pagnucco on the Budget: Part I

Adam Pagnucco of Crossing Georgia has been kind enough to share this detailed analysis of the budget. It's well worth reading to the end.

Foreword

I produced this series in response to Senator Richard Madaleno’s budget briefing for a group of bloggers, including myself, on 10/29/07. While the mainstream media has churned out many articles on the drama of the state budget battle, speculating about Governor Martin O’Malley’s political fate and the relationship between the Senate President and the Speaker of the House, they have often overlooked more substantive issues. Senator Madaleno deserves high praise for his efforts to educate the blogosphere about the largest budget crisis to face the state in more than a decade.

Time now for a bit of disclosure. I have been a researcher in the labor movement for my entire adult career and write from that perspective. I am also a resident of Madaleno’s district and have contributed to his campaign fund in the past. That said, my conclusions are my own and do not reflect the views of Senator Madaleno, my union or the rest of the labor movement.

Part One of this series begins to outline the Governor’s proposal for eliminating the state’s budget deficit. Part Two finishes detailing the Governor’s proposal and examines its reliance on progressive and regressive measures. Part Three proposes an alternative for relieving some of the plan’s more regressive elements.

Part One: The Governor’s Plan to Eliminate Maryland’s Deficit

Upon taking office, Governor O’Malley inherited a structural state budget deficit. Simply put, the state was on track to spend $1.10 for every $1 in tax revenue for two principal reasons: a 10% income tax cut in 1997 and billions of additional spending on education (commonly called the Thornton Plan) started in 2002. The Governor balanced his fiscal year (FY) 2008 budget primarily by relying on reserves, but now faces a $1.7 billion general fund deficit in 2009. Unlike the free-spending federal government, the state is required to balance its budget.

Over the last couple months, the Governor proposed a budget reduction and revenue package totaling $1.679 billion to fix the deficit in FY 2009. He would also increase spending on education, transportation and health insurance by $328 million while drawing on left-over money from FY 2008 of $316 million. The Governor has now called a Special Session of the General Assembly to fix the deficit and his plan will be used as a starting point by the legislators.

Mainstream media coverage has reported on the items in the Governor’s proposal and the accompanying political tumult, but has largely omitted a very important question: is the proposal fair? For those of us on the left, fairness in tax policy is often defined in terms of whether taxes are “progressive” or “regressive.” Progressive taxes fall disproportionately on the wealthy. Examples include rising income tax rates at higher income brackets and taxes on capital gains, dividends and inheritances. Regressive taxes fall disproportionately on the poor. Examples include sales taxes and lotteries.

Progressivity is a paramount question for many people who voted for the Governor. Most left-wing activists worked very hard to elect him because they viewed him as caring much more about working-class economic interests than his predecessor. How does his deficit reduction package deliver for the Left’s priorities?

I investigate this question by examining each item in the Governor’s proposal and characterizing it as progressive, regressive or neutral. At the end, I add up the revenue in each of the three categories to determine their relative composition. Let’s look at what the Governor is proposing.

Sales Tax

The Governor proposes to raise Maryland’s sales tax from 5% to 6%. The new rate would equal that of Pennsylvania and West Virginia and exceed that of the District (5.75%) and Virginia (5%). The sales tax increase is by far the largest single element in the Governor’s plan, accounting for 43% of his package in FY 2009.

Sales taxes tend to be regressive since wealthier people generally devote less of their income to consumption than do poorer people. Maryland residents overwhelmingly disapprove of any increase – it drew only 29% support in a Washington Post poll released on 10/24/07. But the sales tax has three big virtues: it is simple to change, raises revenues immediately, and generates huge amounts of money. Those factors make the sales tax a budget component that may be impossible for legislators to resist.

Sales Tax: Regressive, 43% of Package

Budget Cuts

The Governor has proposed $437 million of budget reductions in FY 2009 but has supplied few details. The Washington Post reported on 9/28/07 that the Governor intended to realize $169 million in savings in FY 2009 by lowering increases in the state’s education spending formula. (He would still increase education spending by $119 million.) Because the education spending formula would provide for smaller increases, the state’s savings would grow larger each year. The remaining cuts, comprising $268 million, are unspecified.

Since poor people depend more heavily on public schools than the rich, reduced increases in education spending would be regressive. Without more detail, it is impossible to determine the impact of the remaining reductions. For now, I classify them as neutral.

Education: Regressive, 10% of Package

Remaining Cuts: Neutral, 16% of Package

Tobacco Taxes

The Governor would hike tobacco taxes by one dollar a pack, raising $170 million in FY 2009. At least part of the money would be dedicated to expanded health insurance. While there is ample justification for raising the tobacco tax – especially if the money is used for health care – it is a regressive tax. Interestingly, the additional revenues are projected to fall over time, leaving future revenue for health care an open question. Wide public approval (69% in the Post’s poll) guarantees passage.

Tobacco Tax: Regressive, 10% of Package

Income Tax

The Governor would add two higher-rate income brackets at $150,000 in income ($200,000 for couples) and $500,000 in income. At the same time, he would decrease the rates on the first $15,000 in income ($22,500 for couples), expand the earned income credit and increase the personal exemption for seniors. The net revenue increase would be $162 million in FY 2009.

A few Montgomery County politicians have questioned this restructuring, fearful that rich people would have an incentive to live in Virginia. But this measure is one of the most progressive features of the Governor’s plan and is favored by 62% of respondents to the Post’s poll.

Income Tax: Progressive, 10% of Package

In Part Two, I finish examining the Governor’s proposal and calculate its reliance on progressive and regressive measures.

Adam Pagnucco is the Assistant to the General President of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and has been employed in the labor movement since 1994. The views in this column are his alone and do not represent official statements from the union.

Read More...

Summary only...

Gaithersburg Election

The big elections this year in Montgomery County are in Gaithersburg and Rockville. The Gazette recently reported on a forum for Gaithersburg City Council candidates, though another article reports a lack of buzz around the elections. The first article also revealed some of the local political alliances:

[Cathy] Drzyzgula and [Jud] Ashman are running on a slate. Ahmed Ali, Solis and Ryan Spiegel, who did not attend the debate, are not running on a slate but say they support each other.

The Gazette has published another article summarizing the positions of the seven Council candidates--only three can be elected. The Gazette is also doing their usual series of profiles which are linked below; I also attempt to summarize some (though by no means all) of their positions based on these articles. If anyone has further information which they wish to share, please chime in. Candidates and overview of issue positions:

Ahmed Ali
increase police force by 10% if budget allows it, against higher taxes, for keeping existing day laborer center, no relation to the other Ali in the race.

Shawn Ali
city needs to work on infrastructure to help decrease crime and improve the community, likes the Kentlands but also wants to see more urban renewal, city should enact legislation cracking down on employers hiring illegal immigrants but police should not enforce immigration law, Saqib Ali's cousin.

Jud Ashman
for speeding up Olde Towne revitalization, wants more open government, more police officers and community policy, support day-laborer center, watch development carefully and make sure they provide infrastructure.

Cathy Drzyzgula
for more open government and bigger police force, likes recent environmental initiatives, favors current day laborer site, rather cut budget than raise taxes, active in home preservation, supports better enforcement of development codes.

Wilson Faris
wants term limits, against day-laborer center, has a blog, strongly favors revitalization of Olde Towne, need to aggressively push county for higher standards for education.

Carlos Solis
for a larger and better funded police force, "never" will vote for new taxes, get revenue instead from development permits, anti-development but unfamiliar with Aventienne development, supports current day-laborer center.

Ryan Spiegel
toughen development standards to help address school overcrowding, for a bigger police force, city should consider borrowing funds to pay for new aquatic and recreation center, against raising taxes.

Read More...

Summary only...

Roundup on the Special Session

Everyone is talking about the special session, opened yesterday with a speech by Gov. Martin O'Malley to a joint session of the legislature.

The Washington Post and the Baltimore Sun both covered the opening session. The Post ran stories on the difficulty of analyzing bills in the speedy special session and the tough calls which will have to be made. Tax mavens may also be interested in the comparison to other states in terms of tax burden.

The Sun has a story on Republicans doing what Republicans do: protesting against tax increases without making any concrete proposals for what to cut in the budget. The Sun's columnists, including C. Fraser Smith, Jean Marbella, Susan Reimer (against slots), are also talking about the session.

The Gazette reports that Peter Franchot has found religion in the fight against slots. Columnist Blair Lee has a hard hitting column claiming that O'Malley's plan would rob Montgomery blind and is driving people and business out of the County and State. Barry Rascover and Laslo Boyd tries to forecast the outcome of the session.

Read More...

Summary only...

Black Family Alliance

According to the latest Washington Post poll, black Marylanders are more likely than white Marylanders to oppose same-sex marriage. The newly formed Maryland Black Family Alliance has decided to do something to change those numbers:

‘‘About three years ago, when same sex-marriage bans began proliferating the nation, a group of African Americans across the state began saying ‘enough is enough’ and the time is now,” said James, a Rockville resident who ran for the House of Delegates last year.

Same-sex couples argue that the state is denying their right to marry.

‘‘My boyfriend and I feel that we deserve all the rights and responsibilities of marriage,” said H. Alexander Robinson, executive director of the National Black Justice Coalition, a gay rights advocacy group in Washington.

The court’s ruling ended three cases consolidated in Conaway v. Deane, which involved nine Maryland couples.

‘‘When [the lawsuit] didn’t go the way we had hoped, we realized that people don’t quite understand still what we’re trying to do for our family,” said Mikki Mozelle, one of the plaintiffs. ‘‘So, if you can bring understanding to the black community, where there is a lot of division about this, this is a good way to sit down and discuss the issues.”

For supporters of same-sex marriage, this is an important effort. Liberal anti-discrimination initiatives don't pass the General Assembly without strong African-American support. African-American female legislators have been leaders in the gay rights fight in the state legislature--Sen. Gwendolyn Britt (D-Prince George's) plans to introduce a pro-gay marriage bill in the Senate this year. However, not all of her African-American colleagues feel similarly:

‘‘I’m against gay marriage through and through, no exception,” said Del. Emmett C. Burns Jr., a Baptist minister, who called the Black Family Alliance ‘‘a loose confederation of individuals talking loosely.”

‘‘Equating homosexuality and civil rights are not an equation as far as I’m concerned,” said Burns (D-Dist. 10) of Woodlawn, one of the General Assembly’s most vocal gay rights opponents. ‘‘Whites can hide their sexual preferences and still get all of the rights that society has to offer. I can’t hide my blackness and get the rights that I’m due, so to say that this is a civil rights issue upsets me to no end.”

Black support is crucial for another reason. Any gay marriage bill will almost certainly be petitioned to referendum by the religious right. African-American support is crucial to any effort to win the battle of public opinion key to winning the referendum.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Good News and the Bad News for the Gov

The latest Gonzales poll contains some good and bad news for Governor O'Malley. First the good news:

o 60% favor a special session to deal with the budget deficit; 37% think it is not needed.
o People really like the idea of voting on slots, 84% approve and only 12% disapprove of the idea.

Now, for the bad news:

o O'Malley's approval ratings are pretty anemic; 46% approve and 31% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
o Of those who disapprove, 61% blame his proposal to raise taxes.

More interesting factoids:

o O'Malley is far more popular among women than men; only 39% of men approve of the job he is doing compared to 53% of women.
o Western Maryland is the only region in which more disapprove of O'Malley than approve but his ratings in the critical Baltimore suburbs are only 40% approve, 27% disapprove.
o Majorities support O'Malley's proposal to raise income (58%) and corporate (59%) taxes but the income tax proposal is less popular in Montgomery even though the Washington suburbs approve of O'Malley strong than any other area besides Baltimore City.

Read More...

Summary only...

Giving False Purple Hope

The Coalition to Build the Inner Purple Line has correctly figured out that the Governor's budget plan for the next six years contains no money to build the Purple Line. The Coalition's recent newsletter calls on supporters (in boldface no less) to press legislators to up the gas tax to fund the Purple Line:

Enhancing the transportation funding package with a gasoline tax increase would ensure that those who use the roads share the burden of road maintenance, and at the same time would provide revenues needed to build the Purple Line.

Utterly false. Let's imagine that a gax tax increase brings in another $200 million. Thirty percent of that amount gets sent to the counties to spend on transportation. No county, including Montgomery, is going to give up its share anytime soon, so only $140 million is left for the State after the checks to the counties have been cut.

However, this money would not be spent on the Purple Line. For starters, the Baltimore Red Line is clearly at the front of the light rail train in the governor's mind and, more importantly, his budget. Second, other areas of the State have to receive their share of funding for projects in their area and the Montgomery-Prince George's share of the gas tax would not be sufficient to fund such a megaproject. Third, Montgomery County has designated numerous other transportation projects ahead of the Purple Line for funding.

So don't waste a tank of gas driving down to Annapolis to lobby for a gas tax increase in the hopes of seeing the Purple Line sooner. A gas tax increase may serve a variety of useful purposes as County Executive Ike Leggett has argued. But building the Purple Line won't be one of them.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Governor meets MoCo Activists; it's a draw

You gotta to love MoCo town meetings, if we think an officeholder can be influenced with mass political pressure we can rally the proletariat at the drop of a hat. It need not matter why that public official is there. It is our time to let them know about a range of issues. And that is exactly what happened last night when Governor O'Malley came to Takoma Park MS. He wanted to talk budget and he got more, much more than that.

What made this event stand out was just a mere 16 months ago, candidate O'Malley -- then locked in a close battle with MoCo Executive Doug Duncan for the Democratic nomination for Governor -- came to the very same site and Takoma Park embraced him in large part because he was not "Developer Doug". Fast forward to October 24, 2007, and the same crowd disagreed with a key component of his budget fix: slots (he's in favor and the audience was not) and with the key highway initiative for MoCo: the ICC (he's in favor and the audience was not). As a group, we eagerly hissed the Governor at the mere mention of slots as part of any budget proposal; we were genuinely disappointed with his position on the ICC. Heck the question was what makes he so much more different than Duncan or Ehrlich on roads.

Tame by Comparison
Still hissing was far tamer than what he has faced in the past. Back in 2000, as newly elected Mayor of Baltimore, Martin O'Malley encountered a hostile group of Baltimoreans who questioned the wisdom of replacing a local African American Police Chief with a white one from NYC, "New York City!?! get me a rope".

Back then O'Malley stood through six hours of having to prove he was not anti-black, last night the Governor need only sift through ninety minutes of questions on the evils of the ICC, housing atop the Takoma Metro, a push for paper ballots along with several other local issues. The only issue to not come up was about the Western Maryland Bear Hunt who had a dozen activists in the audience. Still to those who wanted to have a serious discussion of the structural deficit that will have to wait until the lawmakers reconvene on Monday in Annapolis; though a quarter of our MoCo delegation was in the audience taking this all in.

Prospects for the special session
I have queried about a dozen of our MoCo lawmakers and I have yet to find one who is for slots as part of the budget solution. And yet if slots are not part of the solution something else needs to give. I sure don't have the answer but the expectation game is so low for the Governor that any kind of a solution could be hailed as a victory.

Still why call a special session if you no deal in place. I guess we will now see if the Governor's Irish charm works outside of the Charm City.

So it is on to the next town meeting and another group of community activists and maybe a step closer to solving a budget mess that dates from the 1997 tax cuts and the passage of the Thornton Bill in 2002.

More Budget Talk
The Upcounty folks get a chance to talk about the budget this Sunday. Ok you don't get the Governor but you do get two Delegates and a former Sate Senator to outline some of the budget options.

The District 15, 17 and 39 Democratic Clubs are sponsoring a town meeting about the state budget options. Here are details:

Where
Casey Community Center, 810 S. Frederick Avenue, Gaithersburg 20877

When
Sunday, October 28, 2:30-4:00 pm (Doors open at 2 pm, program starts at 2:30 pm)

Who
Delegates Luiz Simmons (D-17) and Brian Feldman (D-15) will be joined by former Senator P.J. Hogan (D-39) to discuss the challenging issue of the forthcoming state budget.

More Information
Questions are invited and refreshments will be served. For more information contact Walt Sonneville at 301-869-4460 waltsonnevile@earthlink.net

Read More...

Summary only...

Take Back Bethesda!

The movement for a park at Woodmont East--the plot of land located between Mon Ami Gabi and Thyme Square at the corner Woodmont and Bethesda Aves.--has gone virtual at Take Back Bethesda! This plot of land is the last bit of open green space in what has become the heart of Bethesda.

If JBG and Federal Realty have their way, the County will abandon Reed St. and develop Woodmont East as a combined hotel, condo, and retail complex. The building would be fourteen stories tall in parts. If you want to see the proposed plans for yourself, you can find them on the Planning Board website though you have to go through a bit of a maze to get them:

http://mncppc.org/
Click on planning department under Montgomery (not Prince George's) County on the left side;
Click on development in the reddish "What's going on" box;
A new browser window will open, click on next in that window;
Enter project number of 920070070;
Click on search for related plans and reports;
Click on "select all" and then click on "search";
Click on the document labeled "11pages, Architecturals".

The development includes a plaza as open space as the public amenity which is required to justify the extra-high density of the project and get the Planning Board to approve it. However, opponents of the project argue that the plaza is being built on an existing easement and the developers cannot give to the County what it already has. Nor can the County accept as a public amenity property to which it already claims to have the rights. Additionally, the proposed building would cover much of the plaza starting on the third floor, making it less sunny and appealing.

According to Take Back Bethesda, the Greater Bethesda Chevy Chase, Edgemoor, and East Bethesda Citizens Associations have filed an application to have the area listed as Legacy Open Space so that the County could purchase and protect the area as a park. In any case, unlike many projects, this one will have to be approved by the County Council as well as the Planning Board.

Of course, one nice solution would be if the developers agreed to give a park to the County in the existing open area between Thyme Square and Mon Ami Gabi as the public amenity needed to justify optional method development. The money saved on lawyers and lobbying and and the gains in community goodwill might even make it worth it to project proponents.

Read More...

Summary only...

Franchot Attacks Special Session

Comptroller Peter Franchot attacked the special session called by Governor Martin O'Malley and his administration's proposals for balancing the budget in a letter to Senate President Mike Miller and House Speaker Mike Busch.

The strangest part of the letter is when Franchot says that there is no urgency on the question because the budget is balanced and can wait until the regular session. One might think the bond markets would like the State to get its fiscal house in order sooner rather than later.

My guess is that the relationship between the comptroller and the governor has turned from cold to icy. One wonders if it is too early to contemplate a primary challenge by Franchot against O'Malley. I don't think Democrats will necessarily appreciate Franchot working to undercut the governor so early in his term even if they agree with him on some of the issues.

Dear Friends,

As the Maryland General Assembly prepares to convene in a special legislative
session to discuss the Governor's slots and tax package, I wanted to share with
you a letter I sent today to the President of the Senate and the Speaker of the
House.  I hope you will take a minute to read through it and share your thoughts
with me on this extraordinary time in our State's history.

Peter Franchot
Comptroller


October 23, 2007

Honorable Thomas V. “Mike” Miller, Jr.
President, Senate of Maryland
State House
Annapolis, Maryland  21401

Honorable Michael E. Busch
Speaker, Maryland House of Delegates
State House
Annapolis, Maryland  21401

Dear President Miller and Speaker Busch:

As you know, Governor O’Malley has signed an Executive Order convening the
Maryland General Assembly to consider his proposed remedies for the State of
Maryland's $1.7 billion structural budget deficit.  The Governor's proposal
includes, but is not limited to, an increase in the State's sales tax, cigarette
tax and corporate income tax rates, an extension of the sales tax levy to
service transactions that are currently exempt, a fundamental realignment of our
State's personal income tax structure, and a plan to legalize slot machines in
Maryland.

Having served two decades in the General Assembly, including several years
as Chairman of a House budget subcommittee, I have been through similar fiscal
challenges and appreciate the Governor's desire to address our State's looming
budget shortfall in an aggressive manner.  As Maryland's chief fiscal officer,
however, I must question the timing and necessity of this approach.  Mindful of
the reservations each of you has expressed about a special session, I must
underscore the profound – and perhaps unintended – consequences of this
undertaking on Maryland’s economy, business climate and quality of life, and to
caution against acting in haste.


THE TIMING

The special session that will convene on October 29 will take place against
a backdrop of exceptional economic instability.  The collapse of the subprime
mortgage industry has effectively ended the most sustained housing boom of this
generation.  The recent, dramatic spike in foreclosures has created a national
surge in housing inventory just as stricter lending standards have compressed
the pool of potential buyers.  These well-documented national trends have also
been experienced in Maryland.  For example,

•       The foreclosure rate has increased by 57 percent in Maryland from the
first quarter of 2006 through the second quarter of 2007, compared to 41 percent
nationally;

•       The foreclosure rate for subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) has
increased 200 percent in Maryland, compared to 115 percent nationally;

•       The median price of existing homes sold in Maryland declined by 0.6% in
August, compared to August 2006.  This was the second decline in just four
months, coming not long after 54 consecutive months of double-digit growth;

•       Existing home sales in August dropped by 25 percent compared to August
2006, and were 44 percent lower than 2004 and 2005 levels;

•       Today, Maryland’s housing inventory is at the highest levels of this
decade, and has increased threefold in just three years.

The collapse of the housing market, in turn, has inspired a ripple effect
throughout the entire U.S. economy.  Just last week, Federal Reserve Chairman
Ben Bernanke warned that the troubles in the housing market could be a
“significant drag” on the economy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other U.S. financial markets are in the
midst of a period of high volatility.  Consumer confidence has plunged, as
evidenced locally by the sluggish growth in state sales tax receipts that led to
last month's $130 million writedown of FY 2008 revenues.  The dollar has dropped
to an all-time low against the Euro, compounding concerns of higher oil prices
and inflation.  The Labor Department reported last week that applications for
unemployment benefits are far exceeding expectations, raising concerns that the
housing collapse will finally destabilize the nation's job market.  As a result
of these and other, similar developments, many national economists have elevated
the odds that we will enter a period of recession.

It is in a spirit of concern over the general direction of our economy that
I have recommended a more cautious and deliberative approach to addressing
Maryland's structural budget deficit.  In recent weeks, I have suggested that
our December presentation of revenue estimates would offer a much clearer sense
of Maryland's long-term economic outlook, as well as the dependability of the
funding streams that the Governor is counting on in his package.  The
availability of this crucial data, coupled with traditional economic indicators
that are duly reported by the media, argues in favor of taking up the Governor's
proposal during the regular 90-day session.  The politics of the day might argue
in favor of a more dramatic gesture.  From a budgetary and fiscal standpoint,
however, the current state of affairs makes this special session – and its
purpose – a high-risk proposition.


THE NECESSITY

In recent weeks, the media has reported warnings from senior O'Malley
Administration officials that, without a special session, the State's structural
budget deficit will mushroom.  Please  allow me to take this opportunity to set
the record straight.  There is no relationship whatsoever between the timing of
the next General Assembly session and the magnitude of Maryland's structural
budget deficit.  As you know, the structural deficit is loosely defined as the
negative balance between the sum of the State's ongoing spending obligations and
its ongoing revenues.  Unless we are required to revise State revenue estimates
downward, or unless the State makes any unfunded spending commitments between
now and January (which is highly unlikely), the structural budget deficit will
remain at $1.7 billion.

At the risk of restating the obvious, it is also worth noting that through
June 30, 2008, the State of Maryland has a balanced budget.  That, too, is
irrespective of the timing or outcome of the next General Assembly session.  It
has been suggested, by key lawmakers from both parties, that it would be more
appropriate to take up the Governor's package during the regular legislative
session, where it can be considered within the context of his FY 2009 budget
proposal.  Aside from affirming the basic logic of considering new revenues,
spending commitments and budget cuts at the same time, I will further
substantiate this approach by restating that there are no permanent costs
associated with proceeding in that manner.


THE CONSEQUENCES

The Governor's revenue package includes the most dramatic reform of
Maryland's tax structure in well over a generation and, in slot machines, a
proven catalyst for a broad range of social and economic ills.  It would
directly affect all Maryland residents, workers and tourists, as well as every
small business and corporation that has chosen to invest in our state.  Mindful
of its enormous ramifications, I must note that Governor O'Malley's plan was
constructed in private, introduced gradually by press release, and the details
have yet to be made available.  This makes review and evaluation of the plan
next to impossible, and further risks actions being taken that may have
unintended consequences.

For example, according to press releases that have been made available by
the Governor’s office, the plan includes a proposal to extend the sales tax levy
to property management services.  Although the details on this particular
provision are unclear, concerns about its impact on the State’s affordable
housing stock have already been raised.  In meeting with citizens and business
leaders throughout Maryland, I have heard numerous complaints that the costs of
this tax will simply be "passed through" to renters, many of whom are families
with low and moderate incomes who cannot afford further strain on their fixed
budgets.  My intent is not to render a personal opinion on this specific piece
of the plan, or any others.  Rather, it is to underscore the importance of
sharing this plan with the public in open, inclusive and unscripted public
forums.  I am afraid that the current timetable allows virtually no opportunity
for such stakeholder input, which could ultimately diminish
public confidence in the process and result in a product that negatively impacts
the Maryland economy and the taxpayers we represent.


In my view, the volatility of the U.S. and Maryland economies, the absence
of an immediate fiscal “crisis” and the lack of detail about the plan could all
combine to create a perfect storm of unintended consequences.  Rather than act
in haste, the fiscally prudent and practically wise thing to do would be to move
cautiously and deliberatively throughout this process.

Should you have any questions, or if I can be of assistance to either of
you, please do not hesitate to call.  Thank you in advance for your
consideration of these points.

Sincerely,

Peter Franchot
Comptroller

Read More...

Summary only...

The Chamber v. The People

The Gazette reports that the Montgomery Chamber of Commerce has taken a position on the governor's tax proposal:

The chamber specifically opposes raising state income taxes on high-income payers, a ‘‘mandatory unitary tax” on corporate profits and expanding the sales tax to include more business services.

Everything else in O’Malley’s package, including raising the sales tax by 20 percent and legalizing slot machines at racetracks, should be considered by the legislature, said Lisa Fadden, the chamber’s vice president for public affairs.

Today, the Washington Post released a poll showing the opinion of Marylanders on various tax proposals floated by the O'Malley administration (click here to see the graph). According to the Post poll, 69% favor increasing the cigarette tax, 68% favor slots, 66% favor upping the corporate income tax, 62% favor raising the top income tax rates, and 57% favor extending the sales tax some additional services.

However, only 29% like the idea of increasing the state sales tax from 5 to 6%--the Montgomery Chamber's of Commerce preferred option. The Chamber has its reasons. Montgomery Chamber President and CEO Gigi Godwin told the Gazette that ". . . onerous new taxes on business will harm Maryland’s ability to compete globally”. Godwin has a point though she should focus more on interstate than international competition.

As I discussed previously, higher income tax rates could encourage very affluent taxpayers to plump for Virginia or DC over Maryland if our tax rates are significantly higher than these jurisdictions. According to a previous article in the Washington Post, the proposed top tax rate for higher earners of 10% in Maryland would exceed the top rate of 5.75% in Virginia and 8.5% in the District of Columbia.

McLean could start looking a lot more attractive than Potomac to someone who earns $5 million per year; they would pay $191,250 less in state income tax in Virginia than in Maryland on income over $500,000. My guess is that impact would be felt slowly as the increase would be more likely to influence where people new to the region settle than cause current Maryland residents to pick up and leave. However, the impact on revenues would grow stronger over time.

Income taxes could impact business indirectly. As Joel Garreau explained well in Edge City, when businesses move, they always move closer to the home of the CEO. If more CEOs live in Virginia, more business could go there as well. Of course, higher corporate tax rates would provide a nice business reason for the move.

The impact on affluent taxpayers has made increasing income tax rates somewhat less popular in Montgomery than elsewhere in Maryland. Even if you don't earn more than $150,000 and would not pay higher rates, it isn't hard to figure out than the vast majority (over 80%) of the money would be paid by people in Montgomery and most of it would not be coming back here. According to the Post, only 54 percent of people surveyed in Montgomery favored increasing income tax rates compared to 62% statewide.

Still, a majority of people in Montgomery appear to favor the increase, and my guess is that support is a lot higher in among the people who vote in the crucial Democratic primary. Legislators from solid Democratic districts (e.g. Districts 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20) would probably be safe voting for the increase even though several represent the most affluent voters in the state. Legislators from more marginal Montgomery districts (e.g. Districts 14, 15, and 39) may feel more intensely cross-pressured between their primary and general electorates.

Moreover, Maryland's wealth rests primarily not on a relatively flat state income tax level but the quality of education and infrastructure. We have never been regarded as a low tax state. However, the quality of services is far higher than many other places. In Montgomery, the quality of the school system is an obsession in which we can pride--I remember when I went to college and was floored to learn that people elsewhere actually vote down money for schools. An educated workforce is critical to the State's future continued success. What would the Chamber cut out of the budget?

The one place where the Chamber and the people appear to have a meeting of the minds is on slots, though support for the proposal in Montgomery and Prince George's is heavily conditioned on none of the machines being located here:

Almost two-thirds in Montgomery and 56 percent in Prince George's favor allowing slots as part of the effort to trim the budget gap. But that support would dip sharply if slots were allowed in their counties. Only about four in 10 Montgomery and Prince George's residents would support them in that case.

Although a vote for slots is widely viewed as a tough vote for Montgomery legislators, it may not play so badly with the people. Legislators in Montgomery may find it easier to vote for slots than other tax increases. Of course, it would be very interesting to have a survey of Democrats and Democratic activists and primary voters. My guess is that they are less supportive than the electorate as a whole.

Read More...

Summary only...

On Political Pulse

On Thursday, October 25th at 9 p.m. and Tuesday, October 30th at 9:30 p.m., MD Delegate Brian Feldman (Democrat from Potomac), who is the Chair of the 24 member Delegation from Montgomery County in the MD House of Delegates, and MD House of Delegates Minority Leader Tony O'Donnell (Republican from Calvert County) will debate the Special Session that will commence in Annapolis on October 29th on Governor Martin O'Malley's proposals to solve
the $1.7 Billion state budget deficit.

Political Pulse is on Channel 16 TV in Montgomery County.

Read More...

Summary only...

The People Who Really Matter

In passing, I've heard a bit about the massive fires which they're having in California. Has anyone else noticed that the coverage seems to focus ridiculously on the plight of celebrities? Is it possible to have a television story about the fires without covering the latest celebrity in Malibu whose home is threatened? I know Sting and now poor Jane Seymour may have lost homes but somehow I imagine that they will manage.

Read More...

Summary only...

Know Nothings in the 2008 Election

Americans often tout our country's diversity and how the ancestors of most Americans came here from somewhere else seeking a better life. When I was a kid, the Smithsonian hosted an exhibit called "A Nation of Nations" which sums us up about as well as our national motto of "E Pluribus Unum" or "One Out of Many."

On the other hand, Americans don't often tout our history of nativism which has a long if undistinguished pedigree. The anti-Catholic Know Nothings rode high in the 1850s, founding the ironically named "Native American Party". Former President Millard Fillmore carried Maryland on an anti-immigrant ticket in 1856. I guess the people forgot that the Colony of Maryland had been founded as a Catholic refuge and named for a Catholic Queen.

America is currently going through yet another of its cycles of high immigration followed by nativism. Although his presidential campaign is going nowhere fast, U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo has managed nonetheless to attract a few headlines with his extreme anti-immigrant rhetoric:

"Look at what has happened to Miami. It has become a Third World country. You just pick it up and take it and move it someplace. You would never know you're in the United States of America. You would certainly say you're in a Third World country," Tancredo said.

Less widely reported is that Tancredo received a standing ovation at the Family Research Council so-called "Values Voters Summit" in DC this past weekend when he tried out the same line according to someone I know who attended. The right-wing National Review bloggers seemed to miss that particular sound bite though they discuss other glorious moments in Tancredo's speech here and here. Suffice it to say that it is a good thing Mary and Joseph didn't look for shelter in Tancredo's manger.

While Tancredo will not get far in his quest to be the next Millard Fillmore, the Washington Post reports that the desperate Republicans are likely to turn to anti-immigration as a theme in the 2008 elections. They've certainly done it before. Pete Wilson won reelection as governor of California in 1994 by running against illegal immigrants. His campaign commercials showed immigrants sneaking over the border with the voiceover saying "They keep coming and coming."

Pete Wilson won one more term but alienated Latinos permanently. The share of Latinos registering as Republicans dropped to near zero and California Latinos became a loyal Democratic voting bloc. In contrast, at the same time, the Republican governor of another state with a large Latino population reached out to Latinos and dramatically increased his share of the Latino vote. His name? George W. Bush.

Of course, as President, Bush did not choose to act on immigration under his popularity was in the toilet and he couldn't get immigration reform through Congress. Even so, Bush is positively progressive on the issue compared to many of his fellow partisans. My guess is that this is one aspect of the Bush legacy that Republicans will choose not to embrace.

Immigration doesn't just roil American politics. There were riots in the capital of Switzerland (yes, really) over this question during their recent election campaign. The Swiss People's Party has gradually risen from the fourth to first largest party in the land by combining opposition to the EU with opposition to immigration. Their election propaganda in the recent campaign showed three white sheep kicking a black sheep off of a Swiss flag.

Efforts to make it easier for people to naturalize have failed in Switzerland. In 2003, a major of Swiss voted against making it simpler for third-generation Swiss who resided legally in the country to gain Swiss citizenship. Over one-fifth of Swiss residents are not Swiss citizens so the high number of non-citizens remains a bit problem.

Perhaps we should be thankful that the 14th Amendment, which says that all people born in this country are citizens of the United States by right, prevents immigration from being a multi-generational nightmare here. While only a relatively slim majority of Latinos are citizens, over four-fifths of Latinos under age 18 are citizens. Latinos are also the fastest growing group of voters in the country. Republicans should consider that fact before they turn 2008 into our big immigrant bashing election.

Read More...

Summary only...

On Slots and Peace in Our Time

Gov. Martin O'Malley is making the case that the best way to end Maryland's long battle over slots is to call a "truce" and let the voters decide:

O'Malley has increasingly suggested that the best way to reach an accord on slots may be for the legislature, in effect, to agree not to resolve the issue -- and instead ask voters whether to welcome expanded gambling to Maryland. "We have beaten this dead horse into a coma, and we need to resolve this issue," he said. "It has been a monkey wrench in the workings of our democracy for the last five years."

A referendum, which would likely appear on the 2008 presidential ballot, would require legislative approval. It would require support from three-fifths of the House and Senate, a higher threshold than a bill directly legalizing slots.

But O'Malley has been trying, with at least some success, to persuade slots foes to support a referendum as a way to put the issue to rest.

"If there's an impasse over slot machines, a referendum may be the answer," said Sen. Thomas M. Middleton (D-Charles), who said he does not support expanded gambling. "I think it makes it easier for folks to say, 'All right, I'm opposed to slot machines, but I'm willing to let the voters decide.' "

It is a tempting idea. However, even this solution may be hard to achieve in the special session. After all, the Republicans have expressed their unwillingness to vote for slots as part of their overall determination to deny O'Malley a major success in a special session. Moreover, Sen. Rona Kramer accurately points out that the same problems which plague passing any slots bill will also undermine a slots referendum bill:

"It's not as simple as saying, 'We're going to put it on the ballot,' " said Sen. Rona E. Kramer (D), chairwoman of the Montgomery County Senate delegation. "How are we going to deal with the details? And the devil is in the details on this one."

Any slots referendum would have to decide the same key points which have inhibited agreement on this question. Getting a majority of both houses of the General Assembly to say yes to the idea of slots is doable. Agreement on a specific bill is far more difficult.

And why should slots opponents agree to a referendum? Polls suggest that slots could receive approval from the electorate. From their perspective, it is easier to kill slots in the General Assembly. Moreover, proponents have not shown any ability to enact a slots bill into law, even with heavyweight support from Senate President Mike Miller and the current and former governor.

Read More...

Summary only...

Bush's Allies Disappearing

British Prime Minister Tony Blair has already retired and been replaced by Gordon Brown who has been removing British troops from Iraq steadily but quietly in a calculated effort to withdraw with minimum impact on the much vaunted special relationship between the UK and the US.

Yesterday, Poles turned out the incumbent government in favor of a party which wants to withdraw troops from Iraq and work more closely with the EU. Incidentally, this move also ends Poland's interesting experiment in having identical twins hold the offices of President and Prime Minister simultaneously. The editorial in the Economist, hardly known for its far-left politics, may jar some on the right here:

Primitive politics, xenophobia, and high-handed attitudes to the niceties of democracy and the rule of law, have been shown to be electoral liabilities, not a surefire route to success.

Australia is expected to join the club next month. According to the Economist (subscription required for this one), Prime Minister John Howard's Liberals lag about 12-points behind Labour.

Read More...

Summary only...

Republican Purges Continue?

What the Club for Growth has led nationally, Bob Ehrlich is now following in Maryland.

The Club for Growth is right-wing organization dedicated primarily to defeating relatively moderate Republicans in primaries. Some of their more recent prominent efforts included supporting primary challenges to Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter and Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee. While the Club for Growth has an ardor for tax cuts, they don't feel very strongly about child health care. Major recent priorities for the Club include permanent repeal of the estate tax and calling for Republicans to sustain President Bush's veto of SCHIP reauthorization.

Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich has decided to follow the Club's modus operandi and endorse Rep. Wayne Gilchrist's (R-Eastern Shore) primary opponent, state Sen. Andrew Harris:

This is not an easy race, incumbents have a lot of advantages," Ehrlich said. "Being a party-builder is part of the job description. ... When I talk about a team player, I'm talking about a congressman who would support a sitting Republican governor doing difficult things in the minority in Annapolis, Maryland, when [Democratic leaders] Mike Busch and Mike Miller had all the cards. I didn't get that. Andy will deliver that because he understands what it means to be a team player.

In other words, it is payback time. Apparently, Gilchrist wasn't sufficiently supportive of Ehrlich's belief in confronting Democrats on every occasion--a not-so-brilliant strategy in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-1 in the legislature. Notice how Ehrlich uses "team player" the same way President Bush talks about "bipartisanship". In both cases, they mean doing only exactly what fearless leader wants.

Are Republican bloggers appear ready to follow where Ehrlich leads? Monoblogue, a member of the Wicomico Republican Central Committee, is running a Club for Growth ad that Glichrist is a liberal (oh, the horror), though Brian Griffiths thinks that the numbers just don't ad up for Harris.

Read More...

Summary only...

Town of Chevy Chase Sold

In shocking news, the Town of Chevy Chase Town Council announced that the Town has been sold to a joint venture by Federal Realty and Caesars Palace. The Town's residents will all move into a single giant 25-story condo building located at the south end of the Town. Mayor Lena Barnes will announce the sale at a press conference in front of the Town Hall at the Leland Center today.

County and state officials worked overtime to make the deal happen. In a special 3:30am Columbus Day session, the County Council adopted a zoning text amendment (ZTA) changing the zoning of the Town in the Master Plan from R-60 to CBD-3. Labor Secretary Tom Peres successfully lobbied the administration for a casino license for Caesars Chevy Chase which will open at Leland Center in Fall 2008. Mike Maden of the Maryland Transportation Administration (MTA) agreed that all Purple Line trains would be painted the color of asphalt in order to color coordinate with the new paved trail and to open a bike connection through Elm St. Park to the new Town Hall/Casino.

Town residents gushed about the plan to reporters: "With all the storm drain and water main problems, it just wasn't viable to maintain a community of single-family homes over the long term" said David Lublin, a member of the Town's Long-Range Planning Committee. Another resident explained in a telephone interview that "The $20 off coupon to Barnes & Noble is what sealed the deal for me."

However, not all residents are happy with the plan. One local progressive activist expressed displeasure that her suggestion to paint "Kucinich 2008!" on the sides of the building facing downtown Bethesda and the Chevy Chase Country Club had not been adopted. "I think the Town needs to be a leader on these questions" said the resident in a statement issued on recycled, oatmeal-colored paper.

The Chevy Chase Urban Partnership (CUP) applauded the plan, issuing a statement headed "You Can't Stop Progress!" CUP promised that it would consider running a shuttle from downtown Bethesda to the new Town of Chevy Chase Building starting in 2015 but only if funding is forthcoming. Sen. Rick Madaleno, a member of the Budget and Tax Committee, promised to do his best to secure money for this purpose from the State but said "It's going to be a tough fight in today's climate with so many projects competing for scarce transportation dollars."

Read More...

Summary only...

Immigration Follies

Prince William County has a deficit of around $10 million. Solution? Spend over $14 million over the next five years to deny services to immigrants:

The supervisors committed just $325,000 yesterday toward the police measures, which are projected to cost $14.2 million over five years. County staff members have said that the costs will be minimal for the new service restrictions.

Programs that are now off-limits for illegal immigrants include bus tours for senior citizens, leadership training programs for adults, and rental and mortgage assistance. The measures also prohibit illegal immigrants from getting business licenses.

Yup. Free bus tours for seniors is what keeps illegal immigrants in the country. Meanwhile, Takoma Park is living up to its reputation as the uberliberal municipality of the region by denying its police permission to pickup immigrants wanted for serious crimes, as Gilbert of the Granola Park blog reports:

The INS agency, since renamed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is now part of the Department of Homeland Security. It now maintains a data base of wanted persons that includes “deported felons.” According to the city’s background paper “deported felons” includes “persons who have been convicted of felony drug trafficking, felony firearms trafficking, or a serious violent crime” who have been deported but have re-ported themselves.

Chief Ricucci requested the council review sanctuary law and create a loophole that would allow city police to arrest these deported felons. This small change would keep the law, and the spirit of the law intact, he said.

The huge crowd that turned out to speak against any changes to the law disagreed with that, however. There were a few exceptions, notably a foreign-born woman who said that her family had played by the rules and waited their turn in line to become legal immigrants, so she urged the council to make the changes requested by Chief Ricucci in order to keep the city safer.

That was not to be however. The Mayor and council, following a long, impassioned citizen comment period and a presentation from the police chief, turned him down unanimously. It was not a hard put-down, though. It wasn’t an unreasonable request that the chief was making, they said, but, as the Mayor said, she was concerned with the impression even a small change to the law would give. She did not want to feed the current national anti-immigrant hysteria, nor did she want to create anxiety among the city’s immigrant population.

Maybe it's just the unseasonably warm fall weather but local governments around the region seem a little touched at the moment on the immigration issue.

Read More...

Summary only...

On Political Pulse

Amy Presley, the President of the Clarksburg Town Center Advisory Committee ("CTCAC"), will be on the "Political Pulse" TV Show on Thursday, October 18th at 9 p.m. and Tuesday, October 23rd at 9:30 p.m. to discuss the latest controversy between the County Government and citizens in Clarksburg.

The controversy relates to whether the County is going to implement "special taxing districts" in Clarksburg to recoup from residents there tens of millions of dollars that developers previously incurred for infrastructure costs. Based on published reports, if the special taxing districts are implemented, residents of the special taxing districts in Clarksburg would have to pay an average of $1,500 per household annually for 30 years.

Political Pulse is on Channel 16 TV in Montgomery County.

Read More...

Summary only...

Ali Files Bill to Open Central Committee Votes

Delegate Saqib Ali (D-39) has filed a bill which required members of the County Central Committee to vote openly instead of by secret ballot when casting votes to replace members of the General Assembly. Here are his thoughts on why: This summer was a most remarkable time for Montgomery County's Legislative Delegation. We had 2 State Legislators (Senator Hogan and Delegate Goldwater) resign only months into their 4-year terms. Because of a domino-effect, another vacancy in the House of Delegates was created when a sitting Delegate moved up to the Senate. (Full Disclosure: I unsuccessfully applied to fill the vacancy left by Senator Hogan) Most people expect that when such a vacancies arise, they would be filled by a special election or perhaps by Gubernatorial appointment. They would be wrong. Pursuant to the Maryland State Constitution, Article 3, Section 13 (which you can see by clicking here), legislative vacancies are filled by an awkward process: The Central Committee of the Party and County of the vacating legislator (got that?) submits a list of names to the Governor. The Governor must choose one of those names. Traditionally, the Central Committees force the Governor's hand by sending a "list" of only one name. Since Montgomery County is now all-Democrat, that means that the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) effectively chooses the replacement. Are ya with me so far? Good....

What is the MCDCC? The MCDCC is a group of 23 volunteer Democratic activists from throughout Montgomery County who carry out the day-to-day functions of the Democratic Party. They meet on the second Tuesday of each month in a very modest office in Kensington. Most members of the MCDCC are solid, hard-working people doing quite a thankless job. Click here to see a listing of the MCDCC members. How Does the MCDCC Appoint Replacement Legislators? When a vacancy occurs, The MCDCC publicizes the vacancy and accepts applications from any interested candidates. At their regularly-scheduled meeting, the 23 members vote. It takes a majority (12) votes to win. So if nobody gets 12 votes right away, they drop the lowest vote-getter(s) and repeat until somebody gets 12 votes. It's similar to instant-runoff voting. Now here is the big problem: All Members of the MCDCC vote by secret ballot. This means that these crucially important elections are decided by a small group of well-connected party-insiders in complete secrecy without any transparency or accountability to the hundreds of thousands of Montgomery County residents that elected them. This should trouble anyone who is an advocate of open, honest government. It certainly troubles me. I don't know who my elected MCDCC members voted for. And neither do you. Private citizens vote secretly of course. But would you tolerate it if your Congressman, Senators and State Legislators made their most important votes in complete secrecy? Of course not! As an elected official I vote publicly all the time. If I can't publicly defend my votes, then shame on me. Not only does the secret ballot deprive County residents of accountability, but it warps the normal "campaigning" process (ie: lobbying the 23 members) in strange ways due to mistrust and double-dealing amongst the members. Furthermore, this Gazette article makes very clear that by employing this secret ballot, the MCDCC has violated rules of the State Democratic Party. Many people are actively criticizing this process. You can read some of their criticisms here, here and here. For these reasons, I - along with Delegates Gutierrez, Montgomery and Heller - have introduced a bill (MC 808-08) entitled "Transparency in Appointments Act". This bill would prohibit the use of secret ballots by County Central Committees. You can see it by clicking here. But we need your help to get this bill passed into law. If you support open, honest government, please take the time to do all of the following: Contact the MCDCC by phone (301-946-1000) and email (montgomerydems@msn.com). Ask them to "Stop the Secrecy" by endorsing MC 808-08. Sign up to testify in support of this bill by clicking here. The hearing will be held at 6:30 pm on Thursday November 15th at the County Council Building (100 Maryland Avenue, Rockville). We need you there! Encourage all your Montgomery County Friends/Family/Relatives/Co-Workers to do the the above 2 steps. I am counting on the good people of Montgomery County to stand up and fight against secret dealings in their government. By the way, this bill should not in any way be construed as criticism against our new Senator or two new Delegates who are fine individuals and friends of mine. This is simply about sensibly reforming a flawed process and shining sunlight where it is needed for future appointments.

Read More...

Summary only...

Anyone Challenging Abrams?

Stephen Abrams (District 2) is running for reelection to the School. Along with retiring member Sharon Cox, he remains the most conservative member of the Board. Much to my surprise, no serious challenger has yet emerged to challenge Abrams even though it isn't too hard to imagine a rather long list of people and organizations supportive of such a challenge.

Abrams ran for the County Council unsuccessfully as a Republican in 2006. He would have practically needed to double his vote total in order to have won a seat. However, school board races are nonpartisan. The incident in which the Republican who gave up his slot on the ballot so Abrams could run accused Abrams of assault and extortion was also not the type of press most politicians seek, though the charges were ultimately dropped.

Read More...

Summary only...

D18 Caucus and Democratic Hispanic Club Events

I got to hear Chris Van Hollen's thoughts on the SCHIP override attempt at both the District 18 Democratic Caucus event at Cafe 1873 in Kensington on Sunday and the Democratic Hispanic Club event at the Pooks Hill Marriott. It'd be churlish to complain since I'd bring it up at every opportunity myself if I were head of the DCCC.

Perhaps after denying health care to kids despite promising otherwise in 2004, President Bush and the GOP will propose to take away canes from old ladies. Besides, most chairs of the DCCC end up invisible in their districts since they have to travel so much around the country supporting other Democrats. Rep. Van Hollen clearly is not taking that route.

Former Del. Helen Koss received the first annual District 18 Democratic Caucus Legends Award. She represented District 18 in the House for four terms beginning in 1971, and gave a very gracious speech accepting the honor. A number of elected officials besides Rep. Van Hollen came to congratulate her and to kibbitz with local activists, including Sen. Rich Madaleno, Delegates Jane Lawton and Jeff Waldstreicher (and former Del. Carol Petzold), Councilmembers Marc Elrich, Nancy Floreen, and George Leventhal, and Central Committee Members Vic Weissberg and Oscar Ramirez. Pete Fosselman did double duty as both Kensington's mayor and helping serve the food at the restaurant. (Quick food review: delicious, I ate more than I intended.)

Speaking of Oscar, he did a great job as the MC at the Democratic Hispanic Club Award Ceremony--undoubtedly making his girlfriend and parents who were in attendance very proud. His former boss, Rep. Joe Baca, was the keynote speaker and introduced by Chris Van Hollen. Van Hollen also had kind words for Rep. Al Wynn, who presented one of the awards. While it is traditional for DCCC chairs to support all Democratic incumbents, I bet Donna Edwards wasn't too thrilled. Wynn and Edwards jousted for the support of the crowd (and also bought equal amounts of space in the official program).

The Democratic Hispanic Club gave Poder con Ganas awards to three people: El Zol 99.1 Host Pedro Biaggi, MoCo Recreation Department Director Gabriel Albornoz, and Through the Kitchen Door Founder Liesel Flashenberg. Quite a few elected officials came to support the awardees and the Club. Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez helped MC the event. Delegates Jane Lawton, Jeff Waldstreicher, Heather Mizeur, and Susan Lee attended as did Sen. Mike Lenett, Councilmembers Mike Andrews and Duchy Trachtenberg, and School Board Members Judy Docca and Shirley Brandman. Two candidates for the Gaithersburg Council also came and campaigned. (No doubt my list is incomplete.)

Read More...

Summary only...

Van Hollen Introduces AMT Fix

Congressman Chris Van Hollen's office issued the following press release today:

Congressman Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) today introduced bipartisan legislation that would correct a severe inequity in the AMT tax system and resolve the AMT Incentive Stock Option (ISO) crisis. The AMT Credit Fairness and Relief Act would eliminate the injustice imposed upon hardworking Americans caused by the unintended and unanticipated effects of the AMT as it relates to Incentive Stock Options.

The AMT tax treatment of ISOs has had a devastating impact on countless employees, often resulting in a tax burden of up to and exceeding 300 percent of these employees’ annual salaries. Workers are being forced to pay thousands of dollars in tax prepayments on projected income they never received.

“The goal of this legislation is to restore a basic sense of fairness to a section of the tax code that has gone tragically awry,” said Congressman Van Hollen. “While everyone should pay a just and proportionate amount of tax on money they actually make, no one should lose their home, savings, and retirement to a wildly disproportionate tax on phantom income they never saw because our tax laws failed to anticipate the circumstances in which a number of our citizens now find themselves. I am grateful to my colleagues on both sides of the aisle for their support of this initiative as we work to correct this unintended defect in the Code in a prompt and bipartisan fashion.”

The AMT Credit Fairness and Relief Act, which Van Hollen introduced with Rep. Sam Johnson (R-TX), Rep. Richard Neal (D-MA) and Rep. Jim Ramstad (R-MN), builds on and extends the AMT ISO relief legislation passed in the 109th Congress. Under Van Hollen’s bill, all employees and families will pay a fair tax on money actually made, and employees and families who have been unable to pay the severely disproportionate taxes imposed on phantom income they never received will be relieved of that unintended liability, related interest and penalties.

Read More...

Summary only...

O'Malley's Special Session

Both House Speaker Mike Busch and Senate President Mike Miller advised Gov. Martin O'Malley against a special session. Although there is no broad agreement among Democrats about how to address the budget problems of the State, O'Malley has decided to take a risk and call the special session. Delegate Saqib Ali sent me a link to a nice article in the Baltimore Sun summarizing the current state of play and the Governor's tax proposal:

O'Malley today did not take a stance on a slots referendum, but said he is "inclined that way" to break the stalemate between the House and Senate.

Seeking to erase the budget deficit and increase spending in some areas, O'Malley wants to raise the state sales tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent and broaden that levy to cover more services. He would cut the property tax by 3 cents per $100 in assessed value, double the cigarette tax to $2 a pack, and increase the car titling tax.

He has also proposed overhauling the income tax structure to charge lower- and middle-income Marylanders less but top earners much more, raising the corporate income tax rate from 7 percent to 8 percent, tying gas tax increases to the cost of construction materials, legalizing slot machine gambling, and closing what he calls corporate tax "loopholes."

This is going to be a tough special session with a lot of wrangling among Democrats. I say among Democrats because the Republican goal appears to be to sabotage the Democrats on the decision of GOP legislators to oppose slots in a special session after having supported it in the past and expressing a willingness to consider it in the regular session. Of course, one wonders if the Democrats will really need any help due to sharp disagreements within the party over slots, tax increases, and spending priorities.

Read More...

Summary only...

No Green so No Purple . . . for Now

The Governor's proposed budget makes clear his transportation priorities in the official MTA outline of the governor's budget, provided to me by the Office of Sen. Rich Madaleno (D-18). The Baltimore Red Line is listed under "construction program" and will receive $96 million in state funding over the next six fiscal years (FY08-13). In contrast, both Corridor Cities and the Purple Line are listed under "development and evaluation program". The Purple Line will receive a paltry $2.2 million and Corridor Cities is slated for only $7.6 million over the next six fiscal years.

If you don't take my word, you can take the word of Glen Orlin, the pro-Purple Deputy Council Staff Director of the pro-Purple Montgomery County Council:

If projects in Montgomery County were to garner (an optimistically high) 30% of the $750 million that the [governor's] proposal would make available for new construction projects, that would translate to an addition MDOT investment of $225 million in new projects here, enough perhaps to fund only the top three projects from the Council/Executive list. This would leave nothing for the remaining 11 projects on the list, not to mention the Purple Line, Corridor Cities Transitway, or the widenings [of] the western portion of the Beltway and upper I-270. Furthermore, of the new funds generated by the proposal, a higher proportion of it is not available until the back end of the FY 09-13 period.

The lack of money to build the light rail makes one wonder why the Planning Board is in any hurry to write it into the County's functional Master plan. I'd be curious to know if writing it into the functional Master plan would allow denser development along the proposed light rail even though the State clearly is not proposing to even begin construction over the next six years (not to mention it doesn't even know if this is an viable project yet in terms of ridership or cost). One can easily see why the developers of Chevy Chase Lake are pressing so hard to write the Purple Line into the functional Master Plan if that is the case.

Despite the lack of funding, this remains a critical time in the fight over the proposed light rail. MTA will soon release ridership numbers followed by the draft EIS (that's Environmental Impact Survey in case you're not yet hip to the alphabet-soup development lingo yet). Both will play a key role in determining whether it is feasible to apply for federal funding and thus the overall viability of the project. And while the State may be short of cash now, that can change rather quickly, so don't expect activists to lose interest even though it looks like the light rail won't be built over either the short or medium term.

Read More...

Summary only...

Crossing Georgia

Adam Pagnucco of Crossing Georgia sent me the following news:

Last night, the Crossing Georgia committee made its case before the Maryland state senators and delegates in a well-coordinated presentation in which we outnumbered the ICC and the Purple Line forces combined!

Ten residents - FECA President Shawn Marie Jarosz, Doug Goldenberg-Hart, Bob Bock, Oscar Sodani (webmaster of our site), Maida Schifter, Carla Kish, Joe Davidson, John Howley, Mike Ravnitzky and me, along with Eileen Cahill of Holy Cross Hospital, testified about the horrors of crossing Georgia at Forest Glen and the need for a new Metro entrance. The project has the support of the Montgomery County Executive, a majority of the County Council and the entire District 18 state delegation.

You can see photos of the Crossing Georgia committee with all the members of the District 18 delegation, Delegates Jane Lawton, Ana Sol Gutierrez, and Jeff Waldstreicher and Senator Rich Madaleno, at http://www.crossinggeorgia.org/content/view/126/9/

Read More...

Summary only...

Trail Tunnel Staying Open

The Washington Post reports that the tunnel under Wisconsin Ave. linking the paved and unpaved sections of the Capital Crescent Trail will remain open during construction of a new building at the Woodmont East property located at the intersections of Elm St. and Woodmont Ave.

Developers planning a 12-story hotel and residential building in downtown Bethesda have agreed to keep a nearby tunnel for the Capital Crescent Trail open during construction, a move that cyclists and other trail users say was necessary for their safety.

The joint venture of Rockville-based Federal Realty Investment Trust and Chevy Chase-based JBG had planned to close the trail just east of an 800-foot-long tunnel that runs beneath Wisconsin Avenue near the Bethesda Row shopping and restaurant district.

. . .

The tunnel connects the popular path between Silver Spring, via East Bethesda and Chevy Chase, and the Bethesda Row area before the trail continues toward Georgetown. Although construction on the building would not begin until 2009, county planners found out how important the tunnel connection is when developers proposed closing it while the project is being built.

"We realized we needed to look at that aspect much more closely," said Rose Krasnow, development review chief for Montgomery County's planning agency. She said the agency received hundreds of e-mails protesting any closure.

This news was confirmed at the Planning Board meeting today. The lawyer for the developer confirmed that they agreed to keep the tunnel open during construction, though trail advocates are still fighting to make sure that the detour exit from the tunnel is safe and easy (i.e. comes out on Bethesda Ave. near the trail rather than on Elm St. which requires biking down Woodmont Ave).

Debates over the Woodmont East project are far from over. Community members met with Councilman Roger Berliner to voice their support for a park at that location, one of the few remaining bits of open space in downtown Bethesda. The project requires Council approval due to the existence of easements for the Purple Line and for Reed St.

The developers debate the size of the Purple Line easement with the County but say that they are willing to give the County the land it needs in exchange for abandoning Reed St. and giving them permission to build. Park proponents aptly reply that the developers are offering nothing since they don't have the rights to the land they propose to "give" to the County.

I doubt that the developers will give up fast--they haven't hired an expensive attorney from Holland and Knight in order to scale back the project and the profits. On the other hand, the number of people lining up to testify at today's Planning Board meeting from around the area (Edgemoor, Chevy Chase, East Bethesda, Coquelin Run, and DC) and the large numbers who showed up to meet with Councilman Berliner to advocate for a park also suggest that park advocates won't give up easily and have strong community support.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Mike Madden Roadshow Comes to Silver Spring

Just Up the Pike reports.

Read More...

Summary only...

What Do a Texas Hold 'Em Tournament and a Presidential Forum Have In Common?

They are common to me because I immediately went from the Forum last night to a Texas Hold 'Em tournament making for a rare daily double (to borrow from the racing industry) on a Wednesday night.

Texas Hold 'Em and Presidential Forums have as much in common as state sponsored gambling initiatives. Sort of like balancing the budget on the backs of gambling addicts such as what is being proposed in Annapolis (to benefit the racing industry).

Maybe there is not an answer to my question just like there is no answer to the question "who won the Presidential Debate last night?"

Six of the eight Democratic Presidential candidates appeared at Forum held at the Kensington Armory on Wednesday night. It was sponsored by virtually every Democratic club in the county (27 as of last count) which maybe rarer than my aforementioned daily double. Think about it; when was the last time that many Democrats agreed on anything?

Well the Democratic candidates did agree last night and the unifying theme was W, as in the President, as in Mr. Weapons of Mass Destruction, as in he lied and soldiers died.

George W. Bush hangs over both political parties in a way no other President has in my life. Neither Reagan at his zenith nor at his nadir can match our current President for unifying folks. Last night's Forum was no different.

The Forum was interesting to those of us who consider politics part-fascination and part-sport, sort of like "American Idol" where everyone is their own personal Simon Cowell. Granted that is a very small universe, but it is a passionate one.

From the couple who stood outside the Armory reminding people that it is Patriotic to Impeach to those passionately for one of the candidates inside it is like holding low cards and hoping the flop comes your way. You are not mathematically eliminated and so hope springs eternal and so you put some money down in the hopes that your cards will prevail.

Now if you were a causal voter you were nowhere near the Armory. But for the nearly 200 people who did attend it was a chance to hear the surrogates for six of the eight Democratic candidates remind us of why we like to talk politics.

Granted even in an hour and a half -- the length of the Forum -- the audience was limited to one minute responses to some complex issues facing our county, which is hardly fair. However the alternative of Perot flipcharts and CNN monologues would have limited the audience to the six surrogates only -- and this blogger.

"So who won?"
I can tell you who won the Texas Hold 'Em Tournament last night (Johnny O) but I can't answer who won the debate; because it is still before the heavy betting begins -- which is just before the flop. So call this the "pre-flop" maneuvers and it becomes real on Monday January 14th across Iowa, provided Michigan does not recalibrate things.

Just like Texas Hold 'Em where certain cards are generally losers and not even worth an ante-in, you can still play since it is still not impossible to draw a winning hand by using the community cards which is what all those candidates not named Clinton or Obama are hoping for -- that the country will sour so much on the current inhabitant -- and that with the right cards they can be the party's nominee.

So if you are near the back of the pack you bluff and bluster and hope for the best. In this case you hit the hardest at the front runner. Therefore it was no surprise that the harshest criticism came from Sen. Gravel's and Rep. Kucinich's surrogates. Still the overall tone was tame and I think the current officeholder had a lot to do with the unification so don't have anyone tell you that this President can't bring people together.

This quote from the John Edwards surrogate "Where do the Democrats get the tag of fiscally irresponsible when you have the record deficits of Reagan and Bush One and Two?" turns the conventional wisdom of the causal voter on its head so thanks Mr. President for unifying us Democrats under the banner of the fiscally prudent party.

Buzz Clinton
The audience was decidedly pro-Clinton probably because: 1) she is the front runner (there I go again with another gambling term) and 2) her local campaign folks did an excellent job of getting their people out. But what impressed me most about the Clinton folks is how many new activists she has. Every successful campaign I have been a part of has included one part experienced hands and one part new activist. And it is the newbies who are the folks that really create the campaign buzz. Call it Buzz Clinton.

Obama The Exploitor
Obama is like the player sitting at the table with the second best hand and needs to exploit things to unsettle the front runner. He brings part moxie and part brains to get an advantage. His surrogate, St. Senator Jamie Raskin, provided both. Their supporters were about half of the Clinton folks but maybe that had to do with Obama being in town so many of his supporters were at his low dollar fundraiser listening to the real thing rather than the excellent imitation by Raskin. Obamaites are also like the Clintonistas in that they have several new faces mixed in with veteran hands.

The other four candidates had less than a handful of supporters each at the event.

Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul as soulmates
I think Kucinich speaks to the soul of Democrats much like Ron Paul speaks to the soul of devoted Republicans; I doubt either will be elected but if you are a Democrat and don't agree with core points of the Representative from Cleveland you might want to check your party affiliation. As his surrogate, Steve Cobble, said after reminding the audience that the problems America faces need "big and bold responses and with Kucinich you get little and bold" (referring to his diminutive size) you had to like the fight in him.

Check with Montgomery County Cable to see the debate
Cable Channel 16 recorded the debate and it will be shown at a later date. When I find out when I will post a message on this blog. But I will tell you that the six surrogates (Clinton, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson) were well prepared and did a good job of speaking not about themselves but about their candidates.

So what do Texas Hold 'Em and a Presidential Forum have in common?
Probably that having the best cards in your hands does not guarantee victory and being the obvious front runner as Hillary is does not guarantee her nomination. The Iowa Caucus is 90 days out. It has not become an "ABC" race -- Anybody But Clinton race -- but anyone else is going to need to have the community cards at the table go their way to unseat her.

Read More...

Summary only...

Will MD's Tax Rates Exceed DC's?

While Gov. Martin O'Malley's tax plan would raise taxes on all who earn more than $150,000, it would stick it the hardest to taxpayers earning more than $500,000:

But under new rates proposed by O'Malley, Montgomery residents earning more than $500,000 would pay a combined rate of almost 10 percent -- 6.5 percent in state taxes and the existing 3.2 percent county levy. That surpasses Virginia's top rate of 5.75 percent and the District's 8.5 percent. Maryland's current top income tax rate is 4.75 percent.

Moreover, more than 80 percent of the $163 million expected to be generated by the governor's income tax plan would come from Montgomery taxpayers, according to an analysis by the Comptroller's Office. The state would collect less in income taxes from many other jurisdictions, including Prince George's.

Montgomery County Executive Isiah Leggett (D) and Senate delegation leader Rona E. Kramer (D) have said they fear that such a burden and the sticker shock from the combined rate could hurt the county's ability to compete with its neighbors in Northern Virginia and the District. Although a family on, say, River Road is unlikely to pack up and leave Potomac for McLean, opponents of the tax plan say that newcomers to the area might choose not to live in Montgomery.

Obviously, the vast majority of Montgomery residents won't pay higher taxes as a result of these increases. However, legislators rightly worry than this could discourage people from settling in the Montgomery. Tax rates can influence where affluent taxpayers, the kind who pay the most in taxes, choose to live. This is why it makes sense to make federal tax rates more progressive than state tax rates--most people don't want to leave the country while state borders, especially in Maryland, are easy to jump. Del. Sheila Hixon, Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee, has nevertheless agreed to sponsor the legislation:

Among the Montgomery lawmakers who back O'Malley's tax plan is Del. Sheila E. Hixson (D), chairwoman of the House Ways and Means Committee, who has introduced legislation in past years to raise the tax rate for high-end earners.

Hixson acknowledged the awkward situation for lawmakers in trying to represent their constituents and support the Democratic governor. She said that the governor's plan might have to be tweaked to make it more palatable and suggested that the higher rates could be limited to a two- or three-year period.

"It's going to be a problem politically and every other way," she said.

But she said that if the $163 million is not raised at the state level, it will have to be raised locally to continue to offer services residents expect. "We value services," Hixson said, "and we've always been willing to pay for them in the past."

Of course, there is a big hole in Del. Hixon's logic. If we raised the money locally, it would all stay in Montgomery and rates here would not have to rise nearly as much to maintain services. Indeed, Hixon's argument is actually a reason to oppose the tax package. I think Montgomery residents have often been willing to pay higher tax rates than Virginia because of the quality of services received. However, when taxes shoot past those of the District, many may be ready to cry uncle.

I have no problem with the idea that the rich in Maryland should pay more. In the short-term the economic impact would be low. The long-term economic impact may be harder to swallow as the cumulative decisions of very high-income taxpayers bite.

Read More...

Summary only...

Municipal Devolution in MoCo? Don't Go There. . . .

The County Council unanimously rejected Rollingwood's appeal of the Council's decision against allowing Rollingwood to vote on incorporation as a municipality. In honor of this decision, it seems a good time to post an interesting piece by Bill Neil. I posted my views sometime ago but I thought it might be good to have an alternate perspective.

Bill Neil is the former Director of Conservation for NJ Audubon Society. He served on Governor O'Malley's Transition Team for Planning and Smart Growth and was a candidate for the Democratic seat on the Montgomery County Planning Board. He serves on the Steering Committee for Democracy For America (DFA) in Montgomery County. The views expressed are his alone.

Whatever the merits to the very specific tug and pull between the Montgomery County Council and Rollingwood Village of Chevy Chase's bid to become a municipality, this relatively new resident (two and a half years) with a long experience in New Jersey pleads: don't go down this road. It is a true and human failing that power structures and governments become complacent, if not worse, over time, and that the impulse to create a new structure "closer to the people" always has some merit and some appeal, but on the whole, and despite some of my recent testimony on growth policy, we who live in MoCo should be largely proud of our government and its past accomplishments.

I write from the perspective of a citizen who has grown increasingly active in Rockville, MoCo and Maryland politics, and who draws upon 13 years of front line land-use politics at the state level in New Jersey for a statewide conservation organization. New Jersey, which I have described as a "21st Century technology state with medieval governmental Jurisdictions" had 566 municipalities the last time I checked, suggesting a feudal map of Germany, and the League of Municipalities has wielded veto power in the legislature over many a reformers dream.

The municipalities, not the counties, unlike most of Maryland, have land-use powers, and when New Jersey has acted, famously, towards environmental reforms, it has acted with state regulations, including the creation of our Pinelands Commission (1979) and Hackensack Meadowlands Development Commission (1969), regional entities that have set national precedents. In 2004, New Jersey bucked the national trend against new regulatory bodies and created the Highlands Council to protect its hilly watershed region in the northern part of the state. That achievement took 15 years to enact - and the main obstacle along the way was the cry to protect municipal "home rule."

Compressing a lot of time and history to make a point, "progressive" political and environmental reforms in New Jersey have a long tradition of emanating from the powerful Governor's office, starting at least from the time of Woodrow Wilson, and working through the legislature to balance entrenched municipal power at the local and county level (our past infamous Hudson County and Atlantic City machines are most prominent in the "don't imitate" column).

Looking at the problems of the Metro DC region, and Maryland - Governor O'Malley has reminded us in his Aug. 18th address to the Maryland Assoc. of Counties that we have "the second worse commute in the nation" - also especially air pollution (and therefore Global Warming) and the problems of the Bay - we have to face the fact that the solutions are regional in scope - and therefore multiplying jurisdictions will only amplify our already monumental hurdles in these policy areas. Progressive Montgomery County has already dropped the transportation-transit innovation ball for far too many years since the completion of our Metro system. (Many have labeled the Inter County Connector, the ICC, the wrong solution from the last century.) Even if we co me up with new funding for new mass transit and stay inside the county - everyone knows that real progress even for our own county residents must involve Prince Georges County, DC and our two prominent Virginia neighbors. That's because the existing Metro system just doesn't match up well with our diverse new employment destinations, there are not enough jobs in PG itself, and the general traffic flow - if that's what one can call it, is from east to west, towards northern Virginia. Thinking of the troubles of the Purple Line with very local opposition groups, do we really want to foster greater governmental fragmentation looking forward to our brave new 21st Century? I don't think so, whatever the merits on the feel ings and sub-plots of the Rollingwood Village-MoCo turf struggle.

When I hear the appeal to the notion that the best government stems from "being closest to the people," this Jersey native remembers not only the colorful history of the infamous local machine politics but also the woeful lack of environmental enforcement at the local government level - which always had the power to act but rarely chose to utilize it. When in the anti-regulatory 1990's, the Republican dominated legislature wanted to devolve state permitting powers to the local level, I spoke out strongly against the idea, citing the tradition of municipal corruption in New Jersey, much to the outrage of the League of Municipalities lobbyist, who publicly called upon my employer to reign me in for besmirching municipal honor, such as it was. When I replied I was ready to read from a long, long list of local officials who had been indicted or gone to jail, I wasn't taken up on the cha llenge, perhaps because the legislature didn't want to get tied up for days as I went over the record year by year, town by town.

I'll close with some local color from Tony Soprano's home state to emphasize that we in Maryland shouldn't head down this path. Manchester Township, a "sleepy" south central locality not too far from the Jersey Coast, became the municipal "wanted poster" in the 1990's for outrage when a good chunk of the local government resigned, was indicted or went to jail for wholesale fleecing, outright stealing from the municipal purse on a systematic scale that drew gasps from even jaded NJ spectators. The fact that many thought the culprits were emboldened by the fact that so many of the township's residents were senior citizens new to the area and therefore not watching closely only added salt to the public's wounds.

And my very local memory of where I lived, in the NJ Highlands, rural Bethlehem Township, during the 1990's, even leaves me with a bit of a lump in my throat, after witnessing a government transition that ended in a physical stalemate with the opposing parties with their hands literally upon each other's - throats. The background was how much development was coming and whether our township should become the state and regional depository site for - are you ready - nuclear wastes from regional atomic power plants and hospitals...with the prospect of great $ local rewards for worrying about one's daily radiation dose. If we said yes it was going to be our problem for centuries...sure to bump up citizen interest....As the feelings intensified, the local election didn't have a smooth last transition meeting and the parting scene, with opposing parties locked in choke holds and the NJ State Police being called to the scene (we didn't have a local police force) to pry the parties apart....left a lasting impression with me that, sometimes, just sometimes, the government closest to home might be profitably traded, if you will forgive that term given the state of current Wall Street jitters, for one just a little bit more removed from local passions….

Greetings to you all from

Bill Neil

Read More...

Summary only...

Purple Line Focus Group

On Monday night, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) held a focus group meeting on the Purple Line at B-CC High School. Mike Madden, the Project Manager, was accompanied by Lead Engineer Joe Romanowski, Engineer Harriet Levine, Engineer Deirdre Smith, and Public Outreach Person Kacie Levy.

Representatives of a number of different groups were there. In addition to the ACT, other pro-development and pro-Purple people included the MoCo Chamber and the Bethesda Urban Partnership (BUP). Community representatives came from the Town of Chevy Chase (Councilwoman Kathy Strom), East Bethesda, and the Riviera, and the Greater Bethesda-Chevy Chase Coalition--a group in favor of protecting the existing trail.

Although they are still officially assessing which route is best and whether any Purple Line route is justified, the tone of the meeting was that MTA firmly believes in the light-rail option along the Capital Crescent Trail and the ridership numbers will back them up. The official MTA Purple Line website reinforces this conclusion as it has a section on benefits but does not weigh them against potential costs of the light rail system.

The ridership study attracted a lot of attention at the start of the meeting. The BUP representative expressed concern that the ridership study would underestimate use because people are increasingly willing to walk more than 15 minutes to ride it. MTA expressed some sympathy with this view but ultimately made clear that they intended to estimate use based on surveys. My own sense that the willingness to ride naturally drops with distance and rapidly beyond a 15-minute walk.

The MTA representatives explained that they did not know much about ridership estimates--the experts on this topic were not at the meeting. However, they made clear their firm belief that BRAC (the base realignment process) would generate relatively few additional trips to Medical Center and not make a high-speed bus route along Jones Bridge Rd. more sensible than the light-rail route along the Capital Crescent Trail.

There was a fair amount of confusion when I asked whether the ridership would be based on existing development or development generated by the Purple Line. Building a light-rail system would permit and result in much higher development in Bethesda, Chevy Chase Lake, and Silver Spring under current law which links development to transportation.

At the end of the meeting, I was unclear on how fast the Purple Line would go. At one point, it was stated that it would run at an average speed of around 30-35mph. However, I also thought I heard that it would run around 40-45mph. MTA outlined that the speed of trips is critical to attracting ridership which made me wonder how many would ride outside of rush hour as one can drive as fast and to the exact location instead of a stop.

No mention or claim was made for traffic reduction by MTA which seems wise since its potential to take cars off the road appears dubious. After all, it is unclear how many will leave the roads for the light rail. Moreover, the new development permitted by the light rail will dump additional traffic onto roads near the stops (e.g. Connecticut Ave). The light rail appears to be less of an attack on existing traffic and more part of a smart growth strategy to promote greater density and public transit use within already developed areas.

MTA explained that they had to adhere to the Council of Governments (COG) model for future growth in estimating ridership order to have a shot at winning federal funds. Clearly, both supporters and opponents will be looking closing at the ridership numbers when they are released at their Fall meeting.

The trail was another issue discussed at the meeting. At one point before the meeting officially started, Mike Madden objected to calling the trail between Chevy Chase and Silver Spring part of the Capital Crescent Trail. However, the maps produced by MTA actually use the same name. MTA explained that within the tunnel under Wisconsin Ave., the trail would run above the proposed light-rail system. The floor to ceiling space would be as small as eight feet which MTA conceded was tight. Outside, the trail will be about 11 feet from the light rail and separated by some sort of fence outside.

Trees were also a matter of concern. MTA says that they want to avoid destroying any more trees than are necessary. They explained that the width of the right-of-way varies along the route from Bethesda to Silver Spring and that the full right-of-way was not needed for much of the way. Of course, they acknowledge that thousands of trees will have to go if the light rail is built. In the portion near Chevy Chase, the right-of-way is the minimum size needed so it will not be possible to replant trees alongside either the new trail or the light rail there.

MTA presented information a grass track option for the Purple Line. The group was shown appealing photos from light rail systems in France with grass instead of the conventional stones along the track. In addition to the obvious benefit of being more attractive, Mike Madden said that it could also help reduce noise. MTA had no information on the initial cost or the maintenance costs.

At one point in the meeting, it was candidly stated that it was unclear if grass tracks were feasible since the short and long-term costs are not known. However, Mike Madden later said in response to my query that they would not have presented it if they did not think it would be feasible but that positive community support would be needed to make it happen. Your gentle correspondent encouraged MTA to develop numbers on the cost.

Mike Madden expressed a direct willingness to work with communities on dealing with a variety of issues such as safety, noise, and access to the trail. Kathy Strom and I brought up the issue of people, especially kids, needing to be protected from the light rail. In the Town of Chevy Chase, the light rail would directly adjoin the Town with the trail being on the other side.

In general, the overall cost remains an interesting issue. No information is available on the cost of flying the Purple Line and the trail over Connecticut Ave. among other fixes needed to make it work. Mike Madden stated that he still intends to run the light rail at grade through the University of Maryland though the Chancellor of the University has publicly opposed this idea.

The State would be wise to gather independent estimates on cost. MTA favors the project and knows it needs to keep the estimated cost low in order to qualify for federal funds which naturally creates pressures for lower, albeit plausible, cost estimates. I imagine this is why so many public projects like this tend to cost far more than expected (visit the "Big Dig" in Boston for a prime example) to the detriment of public budgets.

Read More...

Summary only...

Presidential Campaign Forum and Political Pulse

Democrats to Hold Presidential Campaign Forum at the Kensington Armory on October 10th. Congressman Chris Van Hollen to give Remarks

Democratic Presidential candidates Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama and Bill Richardson are sending representatives to the 2008 Presidential Campaign Forum sponsored by a coalition of twenty-three Montgomery County Democratic organizations. Congressman Chris Van Hollen will make opening remarks.

The Campaign Forum will take place on Wednesday, October 10, 2007, at the Kensington Armory, 3710 Mitchell Street, Kensington, Maryland. The event will begin at 7:00pm. Admission is free and open to everyone.

Charles Duffy, the host of Cable Channel 16’s local political program The Political Pulse, will moderate the event and Channel 16 will record the event for re-broadcast. To submit questions for the campaigns, send email to mcdempresident@yahoo.com

The Campaign Forum will offer brief opening statements by each campaign and Mr. Duffy will pose questions submitted by the audience. Questions may also be sent in advance to MCDemPresident@yahoo.com . An official timekeeper will limit responses.

A Campaign Fair of Montgomery County representatives of the Presidential Campaigns will have information tables set up to meet with voters, sign up volunteers and give out literature in preparation for the February 12, 2008 Presidential Primary in Maryland.

Directions to the Kensington Armory are: North on Connecticut from the Beltway about 1 mile to right at Presidential Forum sign at Knowles Avenue.

Washington Post Reporter John Wagner who writes about MD state politics in Annapolis will be on the Political Pulse TV talk show on Thursday, October 4th at 9:00 p.m. and Tuesday, October 9th at 9:30 p.m. John has written a series of articles about MD Governor Martin O'Malley's proposals to solve the $1.7 state budget deficit and also the connectedness between the state and county budgets and how the budget issues are resolved at the state level will directly effect Montgomery County. John has also written about the approaches of MD State Senate President Mike Miller and MD Speaker of the House Mike Busch regarding the budget deficit.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Land of Cotton: Uzbekistan, Not Dixie

KHIVA. When I was a kid, National Geographic published a book called Inside the Soviet Union. Its chapter on Central Asia explained the marvels of the Kara Kum canal which brought water to the desert and allowed cotton farms to flourish here. As it turns out, rather than a modern marvel, the book described an ecological nightmare.

Cotton is a thirsty crop, requiring lots of water, so it is seemingly not a natural crop for a desert country like Uzbekistan. Yet the Soviets made Central Asia a center for cotton growth and the Uzbekistan still depends on it for most of its export earnings. Bukhara and Khiva are both surrounded by lots of cotton fields. I saw a literal mountain of cotton as I passed through Urgench traveling between the two cities.

Most of the Amu Darya river is diverted into canals in order in order to feed the thirsty cotton. The results were obvious when we saw the Amu Darya. The riverbed, which formerly filled a wide valley, was mostly dry as the photo shows. In some years, no water reaches the Aral Sea which has been drying up for decades. As Chasing the Sea, an interesting piece of travel lit about Uzbekistan, describes in riveting detail, the country’s major fishing port, Muynak, is now tens of miles from what is left of the sea.

The overuse of pesticides has heavily contaminated both the Amu Darya, the Aral Sea, and the water table of the whole region. The problem is exacerbated by the shrinking of the Aral Sea because salt from the exposed seabed is blown all throughout Central Asia, leading some to talk of a new "white desert" around the former sea. Climate change in the area in accelerating as the Aral no longer moderates the extreme heat of summer or cold of winter.

I saw a few fishermen trying their luck near the pontoon bridge over the Amu Darya. However, I wouldn’t dream of eating their catch as the river is a chemical soup. I suppose the one consolation of the Amu Darya’s demise is that the pontoon bridge doesn’t have to float much—a good thing given its poor state of repair. The bridge has metal patches on patches.

I suspect that is little consolation to the people of Karakalpakstan, the region of Uzbekistan closest to what is left of the Aral. The region has experienced an ongoing health crisis of catastrophic proportions due to the poisons in the air and water. While the damage is severe, the change is not irreversible. Kazakhstan has put a dike between the northern and southern part of the Aral Sea and the Little Aral, as it is known, is filling up again and now even supports a fishing industry.

However, neither Uzbekistan nor other countries in the region have the will to greatly reduce the acreage dedicated to cotton growth—a necessary step to increase the flow of water in the Amu Darya. It is too lucrative for the elites and there is no substitute industry it and the employment it generates, though many of the people who work in the cotton fields live much like serfs. Schools are even closed and children dragooned to work in the fields. Cotton is still picked by hand in Uzbekistan.

Read More...

Summary only...

East Germany on the Amu Darya

BUKHARA. I’m in Bukhara, Uzbekistan and staying at the Bukhara Palace which does not make a good first impression. A pile of concrete, it is conveniently located within easy walking distance of nothing. The service at the front desk is as charming as the architecture—a real taste of the total indifference which was the hallmark of Soviet service. The rooms look like they were decorated by the guy who failed to win the contract for Marriott’s Hot Shoppes cafeterias back in the 1970s.

Perhaps the saddest aspect of the Bukhara Palace is the fact that this building was constructed after the demise of the Soviet Union. Still, it has its moments. One former Peace Corps Volunteer told me that he and his girlfriend used to sneak in and ride the glass elevators up and down for evening entertainment. And yes, he admitted that this was before they had consumed any alcohol.

I’m in Bukhara to attend a conference on civil society in Uzbekistan which might as well be sponsored by the Ministry of Truth. The conference has every imprimatur of government approval from the police escort from the hotel to the conference site to the television cameras to the official reception on behalf of the local Hakim (i.e. regional governor). Apparently, I have been on Uzbek TV.

The word surreal only begins to hint at the strangeness of this conference. Most of the attendees appear to be graduates from the Castro school of public speaking in that they believe speaking longer is better though no one has Castro’s charisma. Frequently, I could not possibly have told you what had been said over the last five minutes—it reminded me of when I tried to watch television after being under anesthesia.

Local officials attending the conference were mostly predictable or incomprehensible, though one local attendee made a refreshingly candid assessment regarding self-censorship by the local media. However, the foreigners hailing from democratic countries were truly astonishing. One explained how it is well known that human rights had caused thousands of deaths over the course of history. Another said how she thought it was great that the president’s picture was in every classroom because this would help build national feeling.

The Turkish representative explained repeatedly at great length about his country’s grievances regarding EU rejection and the Cyprus question, though I was left perplexed about the exact relationship to the conference topic. Perhaps the subtext was that Uzbekistan should not bother adhering to democratic norms because it won’t get what it wants from the West anyway. At least someone was blaming Europe instead of America for a change, though America is not at all popular in Turkey either. My own talk went over well, primarily for its brevity.

The representative from Kazakhstan had a lot of passion and was a welcome breath of fresh air. He quite forthrightly said that “of course” everyone knows that the last Kazakh elections were fraudulent. Yet, he also pointed accurately to areas where his country had made progress in building civil society. Maybe I won’t be the only one who finds it hard to get another visa to Uzbekistan.

If this sounds like a somewhat amusing "through the looking glass" experience, it would have been if only lasted an hour but two full days were interminably tedious. It was very taxing to constantly think of ways to speak in favor of democracy but without criticizing the country so much that it would make it impossible for the Embassy to invite more speakers or the few remaining NGOs to operate here.

It sure gave me a glimmer of insight into living in a Communist or authoritarian nation and how deforming to the soul it must be to constantly engage in such self-editing throughout one’s life. However, I did at manage to set the record straight and explain that the U.S. does not execute "small children". I also spoke out against that the idea that journalists should be "responsible" and support the "national interest", pointing out that what is in the national interest can be hotly debated as the Iraq War demonstrates.

Our hosts were extremely kind and attentive. We had two sumptuous dinners held within the courtyards of old madrassahs. I guess membership does have its privileges. Of course, you have to play by the rules. When I tried to take a short break to rest my ears from the translation device and to get outside for a few minutes, I was effectively tracked down and politely asked to return to the conference.

However, I did get taken away in a police car by the end of stay—only because the tour bus for our windshield tour of Bukhara was full so they asked if I would mind riding with the police escort. The policeman kindly took me back to the hotel after the end of tour when the rest of my group headed for the airport to return to Tashkent. It really is the only way to travel--everybody yields to police cars here.

Read More...

Summary only...

The Road to Samarkand: More from Uzbekistan

SAMARKAND. Even the most jaded tourist should find it hard not to be moved by Samarkand. The Registan (pictured above) is one of the great architectural wonders of the world. The city should be overrun with tourists, like Florence is every summer. While many cities have to invent reasons to entice visitors, Samarkand is an ancient city with fabulous buildings and history.

In many ways, the setting is ideal for tourism. Although Samarkand unquestionably contains some of world’s greatest Islamic architecture, the city is no hotbed of religious fundamentalism. Few women wear so much as a head covering, let alone full chador or the burkha common on the Afghan side of the border.

Alcohol is served openly, and consumed widely, and the Registan is even less religious than the average west European cathedral. Virtually all of the old madrassahs are home to more souvenir stalls than mullahs. You’re far more likely to be asked politely to inspect a silk carpet than chastised for immodest dress.

While it is fashionable to attack tourism in the United States and the Caribbean as producing only low wage jobs, Uzbekistan could desperately use the hard currency and the jobs produced by visitors. Millions of people from this country work abroad, often under dire circumstances, as part of an effort to support their families. Remittances play a critical role in sustaining Uzbekistan.

Yet, despite the collapse of the Soviet Union, the city is barely on the world tourist map. The absence of tourist facilities is not the problem. There are good, fast trains between Tashkent and Samarkand. The city has quite a few B&Bs and more would undoubtedly sprout or expand as resourceful Uzbeks (well, really mainly ethnic Tajiks in this town) moved to challenge the famously indifferent state hotels if the demand should rise.

The Government of Uzbekistan unfortunately stifles what ought to be a fast-growing sector of the economy. Getting a visa to Uzbekistan is quite difficult and slow despite the incredible $150 processing fee. One tour guide based in another Central Asian country who regularly brought tourists into the country was denied renewal of his one-year visa, most likely as an effort to get twelve visa payments out of him instead of one.

However, the guide decided that the visas were expensive and that he didn’t want to spend a large portion of his life reapplying for visas. The shortsighted regime drove away someone who was bringing money and jobs into the country even as sections of the population are getting restive due to rising prices and wages which don’t keep up with them.

However, visas are just the start of the Uzbek bureaucratic nightmare. All hotels must register their visitors with OVIR (Office of Visa and Registration) which checks every day on the number of tourists. Meanwhile, tourists must carefully maintain slips of paper confirming their registration as well as the most detailed customs form I have ever encountered. I guess this creates employment in a roundabout way since both hotels and the police have to hire extra people to handle all of the bureaucracy.

The Government claims that growth is strongly positive but long-time observers believe that the official reports are works of fiction and that growth remains negative. It’s no myth that prices are up though. The cost of a ride on the Tashkent metro has gone up from 150 to 250 sum. This price rise, equivalent to eight U.S. cents, has now put the metro out of the reach of many locals.

Read More...

Summary only...

Welcome to Uzbekistan! Me and the Militsia

TASHKENT. The State Department sent me to Uzbekistan to speak about U.S. elections and the role of political parties. This week, I'll be writing about what I saw.

Flying to Uzbekistan
As you might guess, there are no direct flights between Washington, D.C. and Tashkent. My own plans entailed flying to Frankfurt on United and then changing to Uzbekistan Airways. However, United cannot check your bags through to Tashkent because they don’t have an inter-airline agreement with UzAir, so you’re better off flying Lufthansa (or a United codeshare which is really a Lufthansa flight).

At Dulles Airport, I managed to change the ticket to an earlier Lufthansa flight—a nice surprise since the incredible unfriendly telephone agent at United (on the dedicated Premier reservation line no less) hectored me that it was impossible to change my business class ticket. I guess sometimes things are possible on the day of travel which you can’t do on other days.

Arriving in Tashkent
I could write a whole paragraph about how nice the seats and video screens are in Lufthansa business class. Life is simpler on Ubzekistan Airways. Instead of animation, the safety videos look a lot like home movies. They also did not have enough visa forms on the plane which is a pity because the forms are long and you have to fill them out twice so they’d make a good activity on the long flight. But the flight was safe and the service was good which is what really counts.

The arrival in Tashkent is the local equivalent of the running of the bulls in Pamplona. The passport officers are famously few in number and very slow. It can take hours for them to process just one full flight so everyone races for passport control when the bus from the plane to the terminal arrives. Unlike in the United Kingdom, lining up is not a local strength which makes it even trickier.

I had been told that I was on the VIP list which meant I could avoid this challenge. However, the man at the VIP minibus insisted I wasn’t I the list so I joined the masses on the regular buses, carefully placing myself by the doors so I would be in good position to jockey for a spot at passport control.

I got pulled off the bus at the last minute. As it turns out, my name was on the list for the minibus for arrivals associated with the international cotton fair rather than the regular VIP bus. Even in VIP land, matters don’t move at warp speed. I was glad I managed to secure third place in the passport line as it still took 10-15 minutes. In typical fashion, someone who knew someone managed to cut even the VIP line.

Militsia on the Metro
Tashkent’s Metro is a real jewel. All of the stations are lined with marble and many are decorated with crystal chandeliers. The Metro is even designed to survive an earthquake, a good thing since tremors leveled the city in 1966 (memorial pictured above). It costs 250 sum, around 20 U.S. cents, to buy the blue plastic token which lets you ride anywhere in the system. Unfortunately, it is illegal to photograph the Tashkent Metro, also designed as a bomb shelter, so don’t even try as the militsia are all over the place.

Don’t worry, however, the militsia will find other reasons to stop the intrepid tourist. I got halted by a group of three of them while changing trains at Amir Timur stop as I was feeling weary after walking around the city for six hours. They asked to see my papers and I produced a photocopy of my passport and visa prepared for just such a special occasion. They asked why I was in Uzbekistan.

Prior to arrival, a friend has warned me that all Uzbek officials are like horses—they can smell fear—so after my initial shock I just feigned boredom and confidence and I got my papers back just in time to catch the next train. The militsia man at my stop also tried to waylay me but I just pointed behind and said (in English) “I’ve been checked already” and he saluted smartly, considered polite here, and let me go on my way.

Read More...

Summary only...