Berthiaume Defeating Abrams

With 186 of 243 precincts reporting, School Board challenger Laura Berthiaume is leading incumbent Steve Abrams by 108,207-102,026 (51.3-48.4%). Phil Kauffman is blowing away Tommy Le by 2-1.

Looks like Steve Abrams has finally run out of friends.

Update: With 212 of 243 precincts reporting, Berthiaume is holding on to a 126,275-118,905 lead (51-48%). Bear in mind that both the Post and the Gazette endorsed Abrams while Berthiaume was supported by MCEA.

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MPW Election Predictions

For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!

The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:

Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)

Here's our picks:

President by State

Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.

Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.

Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman

Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.

Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack

Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin

Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco

North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack

Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.

Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.

Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.

Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!

Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.

Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.

Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.

Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.

Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.

Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.

Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.

Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.

Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.

Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.

Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.

Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.

Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.

U.S. Senate

Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin

Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin

Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."

Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.

New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.

North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."

Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.

The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).

Maryland

U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin

U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott

Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.

Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.

MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.

MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin

We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!

Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.

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MPW’s Record Month

MPW set an all-time internal record for visits in October 2008. But the reasons for this may surprise you.

It is true that two of our most popular series, MoCo’s Most Influential People and Saqib-Mania, appeared in whole or in part last month. But our most sustained increases in traffic have been driven by two completely different issues:

1. MCDCC’s Sample Ballot
Marc Korman’s guest post on the Central Committee’s sample ballot has drawn steady interest. Many people are finding it through Google and coming in directly to that entry. Other than (predictably) supporting all the Democratic candidates for office, the sample ballot outlines the party’s positions on the ballot questions. On the two county questions, the party recommends voting for repeal of legally ineffective charter provisions (Question A) and against the latest Ficker Amendment (Question B). On the two state questions, the party recommends voting for early voting (Question 1) and against slots (Question 2). The report from the party’s Ballot Questions Advisory Committee, which explains why the party adopted its positions, is here.

2. The MoCo School Board Races
MoCo voters are searching for info about the two school board races: the at-large contest between Phil Kauffman and Tommy Le, and the District 2 contest between incumbent Steve Abrams and challenger Laura Berthiaume. They are finding precious little from the mainstream media, but they have been making their way to this blog.

The three posts that have been drawing the most attention, almost always from people who have been referred by search engines, are:

Below the Radar, a guest post by Sharon Dooley in which she expresses her support for Kauffman.

What a Way to Seek an Endorsement, in which I reveal what a kook Tommy Le really is.

Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams, in which I demonstrate how no thinking person on either the left or the right could support his return to the school board. This last post is by far the most popular of the three as it shows up first on a Google search of the terms “Steve Abrams Laura Berthiaume.”

One of the reasons why we are getting record traffic on the school board race is that the mainstream media’s coverage has been so dreadful. The Post’s new piece is decent, but it came out only six days before the election. The Gazette’s coverage of the last school board debate offers less meat than a soy-burger. Neither the Post nor the Gazette report on Abrams’ constant running for every office higher than weasel catcher. Nor do they report the biggest development of the debate: District 2 candidate Laura Berthiaume said she would not run for any other office during her four-year term and challenged Abrams to make the same commitment. Abrams, of course, declined. Ace Gazette reporter Janel Davis would have picked up on that in two seconds, but unfortunately, she was not there.

If the Gazette wants to improve its coverage, they need to do two things.

1. Breed five clones of Ms. Davis and send them to all political events. If you want something done right, assign your best worker to the job.

2. Steal Examiner reporter Kathleen Miller and pay her what she’s worth (easily six digits). Then have Ms. Davis and Ms. Miller compete for the title of “Most Dangerous Woman in Print.” And watch your classified revenues go up.

Until then, we’re happy to get the site visits!

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Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams (Updated)

The Gazette Editorial Board must not read the Gazette. If they did, they would never have endorsed incumbent school board member Steve Abrams’ bid for re-election.

Forget about the fact that Abrams was the sole opponent of a school board resolution calling for increased federal funding of No Child Left Behind requirements and opposition to vouchers for private schools. And forget about the fact that Abrams wrote the state legislature to oppose an assault weapons ban back when he was Chairman of MoCo’s Republican Central Committee. And – we know it is difficult to ask you to forget more – put aside the fact that he has been running non-stop for every office conceivable, from County Executive to County Council to Circuit Court Judge to House of Delegates to Rockville City Council to State Comptroller. (Everybody needs a hobby, although one wonders how he finds the time to do school board work.) Instead, let's discuss the fact that during the last two years, Abrams has been blazing a path of pathology through the Gazette that would make Robin Ficker recoil in outrage.

The latest blow-up occurred after Abrams’ ill-fated 2006 Republican primary run for State Comptroller, a race that saw him win just three of the state’s 24 counties. Unable to bear the thought of government without him in it, Abrams then announced his intention to join the Republican slate for Montgomery County Council. But the party already had a full slate, so Abrams bullied Adol T. Owen-Williams II into dropping out. Abrams’ tactics ultimately failed as he lost by more than 80,000 votes to the Democrats in the general election.

The story could have ended there, but with Steve Abrams, the story never really ends. Owen-Williams thought he had a “gentleman’s agreement” with Abrams for reimbursement of $5,000 in campaign expenses he had incurred before withdrawing. When Owen-Williams asked Abrams for the money after the general election, the “gentleman” erupted in fury. According to African-American Owen-Williams, Abrams called him “boy,” grabbed him by the throat and slammed his head against a wall. The two men filed assault charges against each other which were later dropped by prosecutors.

But once again, the story never ends with Steve Abrams! Abrams told the Gazette that county Republicans “conspired to set him up” for the assault charge because they were tired of dealing with his complaints. (We sympathize.) Abrams then became a Democrat and endorsed Barack Obama, prompting Montgomery County’s Republican Party Chairman to say, “He’s free to go where he wants to go... He had kind of made that threat before. As far as I can tell, no one on the Democrats want him either.”

Upon learning that Abrams had joined the Democratic Party, MCDCC Chairwoman Karen Britto gasped, “I’m speechless.” Well, I’m not going to be speechless and neither should you. There are plenty of sane, intelligent people who care about education in Montgomery County, one of whom is school board challenger Laura Berthiaume. There is no reason to tolerate bad behavior from our school board members that we would never tolerate from our students. It’s time to get rid of Steve Abrams.

Update: At the League of Women Voters Candidates Forum on October 27, Laura Berthiaume said she would not run for any other office during her four-year term and challenged Abrams to make the same commitment. Abrams, who constantly runs for office of every conceivable kind, declined. Folks, that says it all concerning what these two candidates care about.

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