Turnout Up 250 in Montgomery

Yup, you read right. Turnout in the gubernatorial election was up by a massive 250 votes in 2006 over 2002 in Montgomery. (Note: I just heard that there are a few votes left to count but you get the idea.) While voter turnout was up an anemic 0.08% in Montgomery, the County's population was up by roughly 2.5-3.0% since the 2002 election. One reason that MoCo's population grew but its turnout did not is that Latinos, who often are not citizens, account for approximately one-half of Montgomery's population growth.

African Americans and Asian Americans account for virtually all the rest of Montgomery's population growth. Members of these groups also tend to vote at lower rates than whites. Citizenship also remains an issue for some Asian Americans. Voter turnout tends to be correlated with education and age in the U.S., factors which tend to undermine black voter turnout. However, the core lesson is that Montgomery Democrats still have a lot of work to do in terms of registering and turning out voters.

For all the talk of massively increased voter turnout this year, the numbers of voters in Maryland's gubernatorial election rose by only 52,315, or 3%, statewide. In absolute terms, turnout was up the most in the outer suburban counties of Anne Arundel (11,333), Charles (6,232), Frederick (6,449), Harford (5,288), and Howard (8,684).

Turnout was down in only three jurisdictions: Baltimore City (-11,863), Baltimore County (-2,393), and Allegheny (-785). Baltimore City's turnout was down by 7.4%--far more than anywhere else in the state and far more than the decline in Baltimore City's population. Apparently, neither Ehrlich's endless bashing of the city nor O'Malley's candidacy motivated Baltimore residents to show up.

These shifts show how important it was for the Democrats that O'Malley was able to raise his game in Republican territory. Turnout in the core three Democratic jurisdictions of Baltimore City, Montgomery, and Prince George's just isn't growing nearly as fast as in the rest of the state. In order to maintain their dominance of Maryland politics, Democrats are going to have to keep raising their game elsewhere.