Geography of O'Malley's Win

Preliminary election results on the website of the State Board of Elections indicate that Martin O'Malley won 52.5% of the vote compared to 46.4% for Bob Ehrlich. Ehrlich's share of the vote represents a drop of of 5.2% from his 2002 showing of 51.6% of the vote. In contrast, O'Malley's share of the vote represents an increase of 4.8% over the 47.7% received by Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002.

The final numbers are not in yet so I won't examine changes in turnout or the absolute numbers of votes. However, the preliminary election results make it possible to gain a sense of where O'Malley gained a higher share of the vote in 2006 than Townsend received in 2002.

In the big three Democratic strongholds of Baltimore City, Montgomery and Prince George's, the Democratic share of the vote rose by just 2.0%. Interestingly, the mayor of Baltimore increased his share of the vote by just 0.3% in his own town. In contrast, O'Malley's vote was up 2.2% in Montgomery and 3.5% in Prince George's.

One reason that Townsend lost in 2002 was that the bottom fell out of the Democratic vote in areas of the state that normally vote Republican. Statewide Democratic candidates usually lose the Eastern Shore, Western Maryland, and Southern Maryland. However, they don't lose by as much as Townsend.

O'Malley made significant gains in each of these regions. In the eight counties of the Eastern Shore, O'Malley won 36.7% compared to the 31.2% received by Townsend. The overall figure masks that O'Malley made much stronger gains in the upper Eastern Shore compared to the relatively two populous lower Eastern Shore counties of Wicomico and Worcester. The Democratic gubernatorial vote went up just 0.6% in Wicomico and Worcester, anemic compared to the thumping 8.1% increase in the other six Eastern Shore counties.

O'Malley increased the Democratic share of the vote from 39.3 to 45.1%--an increase of 5.8%--in the three counties of Southern Maryland (Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's). Most impressively, the O'Malley won a majority of 51.0% in Charles, a gain of 7.9% over 2002. The growth in the African-American share of the vote signals that Charles is likely to join soon the group of reliably Democratic jurisdictions.

In Western Maryland (Garrett, Allegheny, Washington and Frederick), O'Malley increased the Democratic share of the vote from 32.2 to 38.6%, a gain of 6.4% from 2002. O'Malley didn't carry any of the four counties in this region. Gov. Glendening was the last Democrat to win a county in this region in a gubernatorial election. He carried Allegheny in 1998.

Of course, one should not ignore the big five Baltimore suburban counties of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Carroll, Harford, and Howard. O'Malley was long thought to be a stronger candidate against Ehrlich precisely because his strong presence in the Baltimore region would help him undercut Ehrlich's strength in his home base. O'Malley did not fail to deliver as the Democratic share of the vote in 2006 rose 9.0% from 2002. While Townsend won only 34.8% of the vote in this region, O'Malley earned 43.8%.

O'Malley's greatest gains were in Baltimore and Harford County. The son of Arbutus must have been shocked that he carried Baltimore by less than 500 votes according to the results on the State Board of Elections website. Indeed, more complete returns on the Baltimore County website indicate that Ehrlich managed to lose his home county. O'Malley's share of the vote was up 11.3% over that of Townsend in 2002 in Baltimore County.

O'Malley edged out Ehrlich in Howard County, another county lost by Townsend in 2002. The Democratic candidate still lost Harford by a substantial margin. However, O'Malley won 10.7% more in 2006 than Townsend in 2002. As a result, O'Malley won 35.5% compared to the 24.8% received by Townsend. Carroll remains a weak spot for Democrats. O'Malley won just 29.0% of the vote there but that was still up 8.8% over 2002.

The results should discourage Republicans because O'Malley's victory was not a result of the Democrats rallying traditional Democratic strongholds for one last gasp but of making major inroads in areas which Republicans had seen as the future base of a Republican majority. Republicans have their bases in Maryland but Democrats now fight them hard for votes on their home turf and can win the share needed to provide a statewide victory even against an incumbent Republican governor with strong approval ratings and a bulging bank account.

Ehrlich likes to blame his loss on the Democratic tide but the inconvenient fact remains that incumbent Republicans managed to win reelection in the even strong Democratic states of Hawaii and Rhode Island. According to the Baltimore Sun, Ehrlich lost because he just didn't work well with Democrats to rack up accomplishments during his term. Perhaps so, but surely Democrats deserve some credit for mobilizing voters outside of their "comfort zone" to use a favorite phrase of Ehrlich from 2002.