Cardin in Deep Trouble?

One the nation's most Democratic states may elect the senator who keeps the GOP in control of the Senate for another two years tomorrow. Why?

The Steele and Cardin Campaigns
Steele has run a classic outsider campaign. Although he is a complete Republican insider, he has run clever ads positioning himself as a "different kind of senator." This is brilliant. First, it turns his race to his advantage among both black and white voters by playing up his potential status as Maryland's first black senator (which undoubtedly excites black voters) and thus not in the mold of past untrustworthy politicians (which plays well with white voters).

Second, he also has used this strategy to deflect any questions about what he thinks about issues as somehow unfair, old-style politics. Not a bad strategy, since the answers wouldn't benefit Steele. Contrary to my hopes and expectations, Cardin performed poorly in the debates. Cardin's far deeper knowledge and greater alignment with Maryland voters on the issues was outweighed by Steele's personable style.

Cardin rightly replies that Steele is a product of Bush and the Republicans. While not bad, his advertisements do not have nearly the punch of Steele's. Moreover, Cardin has not generated nearly the level of excitement as Steele and lacks a clear, positive message. A pity because Cardin would be a far better senator in every way.

The Polls May Underestimate the Vote for Steele
My gut sense is that Michael Steele is going to receive more votes than Bob Ehrlich. This wisdom flies in the face of the polls as well the pundits. According to pollster.com, Steele trails Cardin by slightly more than Ehrlich trails O'Malley.

However, the polls may underestimate support for Steele. Some believe that the polls overestimate support for black candidates because whites are afraid of looking racist. A fair number of whites they lie and say that they are undecided will vote for them even though they plan to vote for the white candidate.

In this case, the reverse may hold true. African Americans may state that they are undecided or voting for Cardin even though they intend to vote for Steele. Democrats are extremely dominant within the black community, so some African-American voters may not want to reveal their support for Steele to a stranger over the phone. Moreover, the extra support received by Steele among blacks because of his race may well more than compensate for the support Steele loses among whites because of his race.

I'd love to be proved wrong on this one.

Black Democratic Defections
Wayne Curry and several other black leaders endorsed Michael Steele on racial grounds. They complain that the Democrats have not put up enough African Americans for statewide office. Interestingly, one doesn't recall them holding endless fundraisers or campaigning their hearts out for either Stu Simms or Kweisi Mfume.

Moreover, Simms lost in great part because he did poorly among black voters in Curry's bailiwick of Prince George's which Gansler carried by a large margin (not to mention that Simms entered the race very late against a candidate who had be planning this run for years). And I guess Anthony Brown doesn't rate with Curry's crowd.

Moreover, while Cardin has carried water for causes supported by African American leaders for decades, Steele has no accomplishment to tout other than his own election. The imagination staggers at the thought of Curry's reaction if a group of Jewish leaders endorsed an empty suit Jewish Republican against an African-American Democrat with Cardin's resume.

I could on at great length but none of this may negate the impact of Curry's endorsements. They certainly helped lend credibility to Rushern Baker's challenge to Jack Johnson. Support from major black local officials lends authenticity to Steele's bid that he could never generate on his own. It makes it much easier for African Americans to press the button for a Republican. Fortunately, Steele's support among black officials remains limited, though Cardin has definitely taken a blow here.

The Uncoordinated Campaign
It has been an open secret that relations between the Cardin and the O'Malley campaigns are not exactly frictionless. The lack of cooperation was openly revealed in comments to a post on Free State Politics which ironically were intended to show the strength of the Democratic GOTV effort. Mdman (of the coordinated and Cardin campaigns) wrote:

I have been working GOTV in Montgomery County for months and it is far and away the best GOTV operation I have seen. As of earlier this week, 900 people had signed up for GOTV the weekend before the election. I have been canvassing at least a half a dozen times already. There have not been masses of people, but it's been pretty steady. There has been phone banking going on for weeks, as well. I'm sure the GOTV could be better, but it's not bad. It takes people, however

It is true that the O'Malley people have their own campaign office and operation running. Time will tell how effective that is. I think coordination is important so that efforts are not duplicated. Interestingly, One day that I was canvassing drop off voters, I saw an O'Malley worker doing lit drop. Not as effective, but still something. I had some free time last weekend, so I called the O'Malley HQ and they were not doing any canvassing, nor was the office even open on Saturday.

The coordinated campaign is working for both Cardin and O'Malley, so they are getting some lift from us. In addition, our GOTV calling is state-wide and is calling some independents and a few Republicans.

Becky of the O'Malley campaign responded:

As part of the O'Malley campaign, I can say that our Rockville office is open EVERY DAY...I don't know where you went last Saturday, but it must not have been our office. We have been phone banking every night for months. We are working very closely with the Coordinated campaign for weeks. It is hard to tell us apart! as it should be. The coordinated campaign with the help of the O'Malley campaign has been identifying voters for weeks not and we have called thousands and thousands of drop off voters.

The most public of GOTV efforts occur the weekend before the election. This weekend we have a massive sign wave on the corner of Colesville and Georgia, Sat am at 10:00 followed by a canvass...we have canvassing all day starting Today, Friday and going through Monday...we have phone banks all day through election night...the Democratic Bus Tour will be in MC 3 days this weekend...today starting at Shady Grove and working it's way down the county, Tomorrow at 3:30 in Downtown SS and then to Blair HS For the Gonzago/St. John's football game, Sun. night at a Candidates forum in Potomac and Monday with a Gore Rally at Leisure World.
Today we flyered at the SS Metro...4th day this week...and again tonight and then to a phone bank. Tomorrow the wave and then canvass and then work with the bus tour and then phone bank until 9:00 pm....start all over on Sunday and again on Monday and then on Election day, up at 4:00 to start checking on the polls...won't stop til they close at 8:00.

As someone who has been working on this campaign for almost 2 years, you really hit a nerve when you said we aren't out there...the real question is: We're out there....WHERE ARE YOU????

The good news from both of these posts is that Democrats are ratcheting up the turnout effort a good deal from 2002. The bad news is that coordination between the two major campaigns is not what it should be. In truth, there should probably be one united turnout effort. We are far from that if supporters of Cardin and O'Malley are openly dissing each other on the net. If Cardin and O'Malley volunteers are blanketing separately the same neighborhood on the same day as Mdman says, one gets the impression the two campaigns aren't that well coordinated despite Becky's claims.

I wonder if the Ehrlich and Steele campaigns are having this problem. I'm betting no.

Conclusion
Cardin still has an excellent chance of carrying it off even if the race is much closer than I would like. I'm certainly pulling for a Ben Cardin victory and have the lawn sign in my yard to prove it. Although polls are tightening around the nation, Cardin still does have a slim lead. This year looks like a good Democratic year so Cardin may come home on the Democratic tide. Maryland still tilts to the Democrats even in a close election year. It certainly doesn't hurt that Bill Clinton is back in the state campaigning for both top Democrats.

Let's work and vote to make sure that substance beats style.