Turnout Analysis (Take 2)

Hoping that the numbers on the website of the State Board of Elections are now a bit more final, I thought I'd take another stab an examining changes in turnout in the gubernatorial election between 2002 and 2006. Statewide, the number of voters who cast ballots in the governor's race rose by 81,054, or 4.8%, from 2002.

Turnout declined in only two Maryland jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Allegheny County. Turnout was down by 7,420, or 4.6%, in Baltimore City, the largest drop in both absolute and percentage terms. Seven hundred fewer people voted in the governor's race in Allegheny, a drop of 3.1% from 2002.

While Allegheny usually votes Republican, Baltimore City is one of the big three Democratic bastions. It has lost population in absolute terms for some time. The loss relative to the rest of the state has been even larger since the state as a whole has been gaining population. Baltimore City once contained over one-half of the state's population. In 2006, its voters accounted for 8.5% of the state's voters in the governor's race.

In absolute terms, voter turnout rose most sharply in Anne Arundel where 11,599, or 6.6%, more voters cast ballots in 2006. Prince George's turnout rose by 9,803, or 5.0%, the second highest in the state. Turnout rose by roughly the same amount in absolute terms in Howard (9,181) and Montgomery (9,013). However, this shift represented an increase of 9.5% in Howard but only 3.0% in Montgomery. Anne Arundel votes Republican in statewide contests but Montgomery and Prince George's are heavily Democratic. Howard has been a swing county but listed decisively to the Democrats this year.

The outer suburbs of Frederick (6,898 or 10.4%), Charles (6,286 or 17.9%), and Harford (5,784 or 6.8%) posted impressive increases in turnout in both absolute and percentage terms. No other jurisdications had an increase above 3,800. At 17.9%, the increase in Charles was the highest in the state in percentage terms--good news for the Democrats as Charles is shifting toward becoming a solid Democratic county. However, Frederick and Harford are clearly in the Republican camp despite Democratic gains this year.

Other than Charles, four counties in southern Maryland and the Eastern Shore had the highest increases in percentage terms. Cecil (3,769 or 15.1%), Calvert (3,727 or 14.2%), St. Mary's (3,313 or 13.1%), and Wicomico (3,192 or 12.8%). All vote Republican though O'Malley did much better in all of them in 2006 than Townsend did in 2002.

In short, the number of votes increased the most in Democratic jurisdictions with Anne Arundel being the notable exception. However, other than Charles, the rate of growth was highest in Republican enclaves.