A brand new poll by Gonzales Research shows lots of voter concern about the economy but also shows no significant reduction in Governor O’Malley’s approval rating from January. Additionally, U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski looks to have an easy ride to re-election.
Here are the key findings of the poll, which has not yet been posted on Gonzales’ website.
1. Economy, Health Care and Taxes are Top Issues
The economy is ranked as the top issue by 43% of voters, down from 61% in January. The next most important issues are health care (13%), taxes (12%), the budget deficit (7%) and education (7%). Gonzales says, “The fact that 55% of Maryland voters cite either the economy or taxes as most important issue is a warning signal for incumbent officeholders.”
2. O’Malley’s Approval Rating Nearly Unchanged
The Governor’s approval rating is 48% in September, virtually identical to January’s rating of 49%. His disapproval rating holds steady at 37%. (Incidentally, our readers gave O’Malley a 51% approval rating, almost the same as this finding by Gonzales.)
O’Malley benefits from the partisan slant of the state. Gonzales says, “By party, 68% of Democrats approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 20% say they disapprove; but among Republicans, only 16% approve of the job O’Malley is doing, while 66% disapprove; among independents, 41% approve and 39% disapprove.”
Former Governor Bob Ehrlich has a 42% favorable and 26% unfavorable rating. Former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele has a 40% favorable and 34% unfavorable rating. O’Malley leads Ehrlich 49-38% in an election matchup. He leads Steele 52-37%.
3. Mikulski Looks Strong
U.S. Senator Barbara Mikulski has a 67% approval rating, her highest in Gonzales’ tracking. Gonzales says, “Among Maryland voters, 55% say they will re-elect Barbara Mikulski next year, only 19% say they’ll definitely vote to replace, while 26% say they would like to consider another candidate… Barbara Mikulski has averaged 67% in her 4 elections… she appears headed toward another easy re-election.”
4. Voters Oppose All Budget Deficit Remedies
Seventy-five percent of the voters say the budget deficit is “a very big problem.” But here are the voters’ reactions to each potential solution for the deficit.
Reduce state aid for public education
Favor: 16%
Oppose: 80%
Reduce state services for the poor
Favor: 22%
Oppose: 70%
Increase the state income tax
Favor: 26%
Oppose: 67%
Reduce state aid for higher education
Favor: 27%
Oppose: 67%
Increase the state sales tax
Favor: 31%
Oppose: 64%
Reduce state funding for environmental programs
Favor: 38%
Oppose: 56%
Reduce state funding for transportation projects
Favor: 40%
Oppose: 51%
5. Many Potential O’Malley Challengers Have Low Name Recognition
The primary is less than a year away. O’Malley’s potential rivals have little time to build their statewide name identification, a key advantage for the Governor.
All in all, the poll is good news for Martin O’Malley but contains some warning signs for incumbents in competitive districts.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
New Gonzales Poll: O’Malley Holding Steady
Monday, February 09, 2009
Barbara Mikulski and the MoCo Dominoes
Rumors are swirling that President Obama is considering Maryland Senator Barbara Mikulski to be the next Health and Human Services Secretary. So let’s play a game, shall we? What if the President asked Senator Mikulski to take the job? And what if Governor O’Malley picked Maryland’s most formidable Congressman, Chris Van Hollen, to be the next U.S. Senator? Then who in Montgomery County would run in a special election for the District 8 seat? And who would win? Let’s find out what the spies had to say!
First of all, several informants spanked me for even bringing up the scenario. “Don’t be silly!” one of them scolded. Many sources believe that the Governor would face irresistible political pressure to create Maryland’s first African-American Senator – probably Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown or Congressman Elijah Cummings. One spy said this:As much as we might like to see Van Hollen in the seat, the racial politics of the state will be too much to bear for O'Malley. Anthony Brown is too young for the Senate seat and would only continue the tradition of creating political backlog. Elijah Cummings in the more attractive pick for all involved because of his race and age.
Others believe that Van Hollen may want to stay where he is. But our sources were willing to play the game just for fun. After all, Van Hollen’s seat will open up someday and it’s never too early to stir the pot!
Our informants collectively named the following people as most likely to run for Van Hollen’s seat if he leaves: Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20), Senator Rob Garagiola (D-15), DNC Member Susan Turnbull, Senator Rich Madaleno (D-18) and Montgomery County Council Member Phil Andrews. Garagiola lives in Congressional District 4 at the moment but that's something a real estate agent could easily fix. Many sources also speculated that Senator Brian Frosh (D-16), Delegates Saqib Ali (D-39), Heather Mizeur (D-20) and Brian Feldman (D-15) and County Council Members Nancy Floreen and Valerie Ervin might consider a race.
Our informants had no consensus on who would be most likely to win. Four spies picked Raskin, three picked Madaleno and two each picked Garagiola and Mizeur. One source makes this case for a Raskin victory:I think Raskin would be the odds on favorite to win this seat for two reasons – none of the other candidates have had to run serious races recently, so they haven't been forced to stay visible and build a current crop of activists. Plus, Raskin’s followers are Kool-Aid drinkers – ie: they really believe in him (and with good reason, I would add). People sometimes laugh at D-20’s activists, but I have to say, if you’re trying to get something done, there's no other District I’d rather represent – the constituents are progressive workhorses, and Raskin’s a real motivator. He could run a campaign that would be more impassioned than Van Hollen’s... The big question for him would be whether he sits this out, lets the bloodbath happen, and then waits for Gansler to leave the AG’s post in 2014.
Raskin supporters do need to remember an important fact listed by another of my informants: 14 of District 20’s 24 precincts are located in Congressional District 4. Only 2 of District 18’s 37 precincts and 9 of District 15’s 32 precincts are located outside Congressional District 8. That gives Madaleno and Garagiola a leg up.
Haven’t heard enough rumors? Check out these tidbits from our informants:
Spy #1:If for whatever reason Van Hollen leaves his safe, 8th district Congressional seat, Montgomery County politics will never be the same. My crystal ball says watch for two scenarios – either a realization that a battering primary (in which many current state elected and county politicians would have to give up their seats) would be bad for the County in the big picture, especially in Annapolis, and people start to get behind a consensus pick. Or the second scenario – all out political warfare that will shape county politics for a decade.
Spy #2If it winds up being a donnybrook, it may break down according to demographics and how many candidates are from the same base. So if there are 2-3 Takoma / Silver Spring people, that could open the door for upcounty or western county people, or allow Josh Rales to parachute in with all his money.
Spy #3:Say Garagiola, Raskin, and Madaleno run during a regular election (not a special election to fill the seat) and leave their Senate seats open. In D-15, Feldman likely wins that seat in a cakewalk. Heather and Tom run like hell to take Raskin’s office. District 18 is a different story. Ana Sol would give it thought, I think, but D-18 is used to having someone on B&T with a wealth of knowledge on budget issues. Also, the GLBT community would want to keep a seat in the Senate. Mizeur can fill that slot in D-20, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some lobbying and support behind Pete Fosselman (Kensington mayor). Pete’s an ally of Governor O’Malley and the only elected Democrat in Montgomery County to have endorsed MOM’s campaign during the primaries. If it went to the Central Committee, which it likely will, Pete’s stock should rise.
Spy #4:Who would win? The one with the most money.
Well now. I think that’s enough gossip for one day, don’t you?
Thursday, January 24, 2008
"I Was Just Following Orders"
Decades ago, a critically important principle in support of the rule of law was established: “I was just following orders” is not an excuse for breaking the law. When a person is directed by a government official to break the law, his obligation is to the law, not to that government official.
But that principle came under attack today, not just by the usual suspects, but by Barbara Mikulski, of all people.
As you probably know, Congress has been debating whether to grant retroactive immunity to the telecom companies who collaborated with the Bush Administration and facilitated clearly illegal spying on Americans. By shutting down all ongoing and future lawsuits against the telecom companies, Bush and the Republicans want to make sure that no one will be able to use the judicial process to uncover the extent of their illegal spying.
To do that, they have to make “I was just following orders” a legitimate excuse to break the law. Considering that this is an administration that came to power through a Supreme Court opinion that itself assaulted the very idea of the rule of law, this is no surprise.
But Mikulski’s support of “I was just following orders” was a surprise, at least to me. I have long respected Sen. Mikulski and been glad to have her representing me in the United States Senate.
I had thought that when a fundamental issue like the rule of law was at stake, we could count on our senator to do the right thing.
I guess I was wrong.
It may be years before we uncover the extent of the Bush Administration's many violations of federal law, to say nothing of the U.S. Constitution. Barbara Mikulski has made that important task even harder.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Battle Joined on Fourth Circuit Nominee
Bethesdan Rod Rosenstein, the U.S. Attorney for Maryland, has been nominated for a Maryland seat on the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals. The Fourth Circuit has long been seen as the most conservative in the federal judiciary. Judicial appointees have become highly partisan and controversial and the Fourth Circuit currently has only 10 of the 15 judgeships are currently filled. However, staunch opposition by Maryland's two Democratic senators promises to torpedo any chance of Rosenstein being confirmed by the Senate:
Maryland's senators exercise virtual veto power over a nomination from their state, and they have criticized Rosenstein's dearth of legal experience in the state and his lack of strong Maryland roots. They also bemoaned the inability to settle on a compromise candidate with the White House.President Bush, long famed for his bipartisan approach, attacked the Senate in response as he continued his tradition in speaking only to groups inside the bubble by giving an address to the conservative Federalist Society:
"Rod Rosenstein is doing a good job as the U.S. attorney in Maryland, and that's where we need him. He plays a vital role in fighting crime and protecting our communities in Maryland," Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski said in a statement. "In the twilight of the Bush administration, we don't need an acting U.S. attorney in Maryland. In light of the mismanagement of the Bush administration Justice Department, we cannot risk another vacancy."
In the joint statement, Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin added: "I regret that the White House did not listen to our recommendations to keep Rod Rosenstein as U.S. attorney. We had had hoped to work with the administration to find a consensus candidate for the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals with deep roots in the Maryland legal community."
Praised for his effective stewardship of about 70 federal prosecutors in Baltimore and Greenbelt, Rosenstein - who remains in the post during the confirmation process - is nonetheless likely to see his nomination wither without the support of Mikulski and Cardin, said one longtime court watcher.
"It's extremely unlikely that he'll be confirmed," said Carl Tobias, a law professor at the University of Richmond.
"The Senate is no longer asking the right question, whether a nominee is someone who will uphold our Constitution and laws," he said in excerpts of a speech he was to deliver last night to the Federalist Society, a conservative group that emphasizes legal matters.Not all Democrats agree with Mikulski and Cardin's approach. Montgomery State's Attorney John McCarthy supports the nomination:
"Instead, nominees are asked to guarantee specific outcomes of cases that might come before the court," he said. "If they refuse - as they should - they often find their nomination ends up in limbo instead of on the Senate floor."
"I think he is a phenomenal nominee," said Montgomery County State's Attorney John McCarthy, who lauded Rosenstein's efforts to reach out to local prosecutors' offices. "I think he has done an extraordinarily fine job as U.S. attorney, uniformly respected by prosecutors and defense attorneys alike."And Mikulski did support him for the post of U.S. Attorney. Of course, supporting someone for a temporary post as prosecutor is different than a lifetime appointment to the federal circuit court overseeing Maryland. No doubt our two liberal senators do not relish the idea of solidfying conservative control of this court for many more years. Rosenstein is only 42 and could easily spend decades on the court.
