Republican Purges Continue?

What the Club for Growth has led nationally, Bob Ehrlich is now following in Maryland.

The Club for Growth is right-wing organization dedicated primarily to defeating relatively moderate Republicans in primaries. Some of their more recent prominent efforts included supporting primary challenges to Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter and Rhode Island Sen. Lincoln Chafee. While the Club for Growth has an ardor for tax cuts, they don't feel very strongly about child health care. Major recent priorities for the Club include permanent repeal of the estate tax and calling for Republicans to sustain President Bush's veto of SCHIP reauthorization.

Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich has decided to follow the Club's modus operandi and endorse Rep. Wayne Gilchrist's (R-Eastern Shore) primary opponent, state Sen. Andrew Harris:

This is not an easy race, incumbents have a lot of advantages," Ehrlich said. "Being a party-builder is part of the job description. ... When I talk about a team player, I'm talking about a congressman who would support a sitting Republican governor doing difficult things in the minority in Annapolis, Maryland, when [Democratic leaders] Mike Busch and Mike Miller had all the cards. I didn't get that. Andy will deliver that because he understands what it means to be a team player.

In other words, it is payback time. Apparently, Gilchrist wasn't sufficiently supportive of Ehrlich's belief in confronting Democrats on every occasion--a not-so-brilliant strategy in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2-1 in the legislature. Notice how Ehrlich uses "team player" the same way President Bush talks about "bipartisanship". In both cases, they mean doing only exactly what fearless leader wants.

Are Republican bloggers appear ready to follow where Ehrlich leads? Monoblogue, a member of the Wicomico Republican Central Committee, is running a Club for Growth ad that Glichrist is a liberal (oh, the horror), though Brian Griffiths thinks that the numbers just don't ad up for Harris.

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David Paulson’s Career of Evil Comes to an End (Updated)

The classic criticism of Democrats is that they are too nice to take on the Republicans. But no one ever said that about departing state Democratic Press Secretary David Paulson.

If you wanted to see Paulson, you had to go to the state Democratic headquarters on Main Street in Annapolis. Then you had to descend into the deepest recesses of the building, navigating twisting hallways and following the snickering, “Heh, heh, heh.” And there in the dankest, darkest, most trash-strewn hole is where the Democrats kept Paulson.

A scheming hermit crab of a man, Paulson dutifully performed his nominal job: press contact for the state Democrats. But he was much more interested in performing his real job: causing chaos in the ranks of the enemy. He was bored by defense; he lived for offense. Paulson was not distinguished merely by his verbal brutality, but rather by his creativity and glee. Consider the following examples from his body of work:

Andy Harris: Big Oil’s Best Friend and Hired Gun

Are Ehrlich and his Lawyer Hiding in Fear?

Democratic Party Chair Urges Governor Ehrlich to End “Unacceptable” Hiring of Felons for Department of Juvenile Services

Ehrlich Crushes Free Speech

Ehrlich Declares War on Maryland Doctors and Patients

Ehrlich Raised More Taxes in 16 Months than Democrats did in 16 Years

Ehrlich Still Hiding Slush Fund Contributions

Help Maryland’s Economy: Ask Ehrlich to Resign

Steele’s Top Ten Lies, Ducks, Flip Flops, No-Shows and Empty Promises

Steele Should Return Money Raised with Producer of “Willie Horton” Ad

Paulson’s best work may have been invisible. He had an extensive network of informants. He was even rumored to have double agents planted inside the GOP. If a Republican stiffed a waitress, failed to shovel his sidewalk or kicked the neighbor’s dog, Paulson would find out. The bloggers of Red Maryland once tried to figure out if he was spying on their site. They finally banned anonymous comments for fear of being targeted by Paulson and/or his minions. The true scope of Paulson’s counter-intel operations will never be known; he isn’t talking.

A long time ago, I had a cat who would bring home animals he hunted. Live animals. Dead animals. Half-dead animals. Pieces of animals: feet, tails, even whiskers. One day I caught him playing with a shredded half-mouse on the kitchen floor. He looked up at me and said with his eyes, “Hey, don't stop me yet. It's still twitching.”

David Paulson can relate.

Update: Paulson's lingering menace casts such a long shadow over Red Maryland that they are frantically denying their decision to ban anonymous comments had anything to do with him. Riiight.

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Porn vs. Policy

By Marc Korman.

It is a fact of legislative bodies that they spend too much time naming post offices, honoring sports teams, and naming state desserts. But for the past week, the Maryland General Assembly has found a whole new way to waste time, spending an unusual amount of time on porn.

By now the basic controversy is well known. The University of Maryland had a scheduled screening of an adult film, Pirates II: Stagnetti's Revenge. The screening was going to be coupled with a discussion of sexuality and pornography. State Senator Andy Harris, who did not have time to vote on the death penalty, found time to introduce an amendment to withhold operating funds from any Maryland public university showing an adult film outside of a classroom.

Of course, Republican senators in Annapolis say a lot and usually do not have much impact. But in this case Senate President Mike Miller announced his support for the Harris amendment and it snowballed into a major issue. The whole story has been well chronicled in the newspapers, but in the end part of the film was screened in a University lecture hall and Annapolis is moving forward with a requirement that Maryland public universities detail their policies on screening pornographic films.

I see two reasons to oppose the Harris effort. First, the amendment implicates First Amendment and education issues that need to be carefully considered. Public universities rely on the state for support and legislators should be paying attention to them. But they should not be micromanaging campus activities. Second, the amendment is the wrong debate at the wrong time.

State Senator Jamie Raskin led the effort against the legislature meddling in the screening, although even he could not resist claiming he had never seen a porno film. Right, just like every slots opponent has never gambled. But at least Senator Raskin stepped up and fought the legislature’s efforts to involve itself in determining acceptable and unacceptable educational content.

Some surprising individuals joined him as well. For example, Aaron Titus of the Maryland Coalition Against Pornography was quoted by the Post as saying the University’s reasons for cancelling the film screening were wrong and the debate should be about ideas, not dollars. Republican Senator EJ Pipkin, no friend of Andy Harris due to their Congressional primary campaign against each other, has asked if the legislature has anything better to do.

Let me offer an idea to Senator Pipkin, as well as Senators Harris and Miller. I am happy they are spending some time discussing the University of Maryland, but they should dedicate that time to matters more appropriate to the legislature, like funding. Last year, the Commission to Develop the Maryland Model for Funding Higher Education issued a report. As with most commission reports, it was promptly forgotten about. I read the report when it was issued and recall that it set specific targeting goals for tuition and financial aid to keep the Maryland system well funded, but also affordable so the state could be competitive not just with schools nationwide, but globally. One shortcoming of the report was that it did not offer much of a roadmap to reach those goals.

The General Assembly’s response to the report was a tuition freeze for the fourth year at public universities. The policy actually dates back to the Ehrlich Administration and makes a nice headline for elected officials. Unfortunately, it does not make good policy, especially when the state budget is in such disarray. Next year or the year after, a tuition increase will be necessary and when it comes we will see a major increase, possibly in the double digits percentagewise. The situation is analogous to the short sighted energy deregulation policy, where the state froze rates for approximately eight years and when the freeze ended, prices skyrocketed because they were being artificially held down. At the least, tuition needs to adjust for inflation.

If it were me, I would work towards a policy where tuition increases at a small percentage annually but financial aide programs are improved for those who cannot afford to pay. But there may be other answers out there the legislature can come to. But whatever the answer, that is the debate the General Assembly should be having regarding the University of Maryland, not what movies they screen on campus.

Disclosure: I am a student at the University of Maryland School of Law, which has not shown an adult film during my time there and is not covered by the tuition freeze.

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Primary View

I know that at least three Maryland congressional races feature primaries this year:

Eighth District
Chris Van Hollen is the most popular politician in Montgomery County but that doesn't dissuade Deborah Vollmer who ran against him in the Democratic primary in 2006 and received just 8.7 percent of the vote. Once again, Deborah is running because she believes that Rep. Van Hollen is too supportive of the Iraq War.

Fourth District:
Don't miss Kevin Gillogly's coverage of the Wynn-Edwards debate and request for videos which we'd be happy to post here. It has been a good week for Donna Edwards, who nearly beat incumbent Rep. Al Wynn last time and is back for a rematch. Edwards has been endorsed by EMILY's list which should help her raise significant funds. The League of Conservation Voters has also endorsed Edwards though my colleague Prof. Ron Walters at the University of Maryland discounts the importance of the latter endorsement:

Ronald W. Walters, a professor in government and politics at the University of Maryland, College Park, said endorsements generally are not that important unless they come with money or volunteers.

Karpinski said his organization would be ‘‘helpful” to the Edwards campaign. ‘‘We have several different ways we may engage in this race,” he said.

Walters said Wynn is going to have to pay attention to polls and to what people are saying about him.

‘‘He seems to know where he is, in another potentially tight race,” Walters said. ‘‘I think he’s making an effort. It’s a question whether people perceive that’s sufficient.”

Wynn’s campaign manager, Lori Sherwood, said the league endorsed Edwards in her last campaign.

Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi is solidly behind Wynn. Posts on the topic on freestatepolitics.org and dailykos.org favor Edwards (see posts by Kos himsefl here, here, here, and here).

First District:
According to the Gazette, moderate Republican Wayne Gilchrest faces one of his toughest primary challenges ever in his Eastern Shore-based district. Gilchrest certainly feels it is one of the nastiest:

Gilchrest, seeking his 10th term representing Maryland’s 1st District, compared political campaigns to having irritable bowel syndrome, with some ‘‘flare-ups” more severe than others.

‘‘Some flare-ups are mild and some flare-ups are just like crushing glass in your bowel. This is less mild,” he said. ‘‘With [IBS] you do what you need to do to take care of your bowel. In a political campaign you do what you can to take care of your integrity and your soul.”

Gilchrest faces several challengers. As discussed in an earlier post, State Sen. Andrew Harris has been endorsed by Robert Ehrlich. Besides Andy Harris, Gilchrest is also begin challenged by Dr. Joe Arminio, Attorney John Lee Walter, and Joseph Banks. Harris appears the most formidable as he has raised over $500,000. You can jump down the rabbit hole and find out what the Republicans think about this race at Brian Griffiths, monoblogue, and Red Maryland, which clearly seems behind Andy Harris since he is listed as a "friend" on the blogroll while the incumbent is an unperson.

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Rep. Gilchrest Faces Another Challenger

There have been rumors for awhile, but tomorrow it becomes official: GOP State Sen. E.J. Pipkin will join State Sen. Andrew Harris in challenging the reelection of fellow Republican Congressman Wayne Gilchrest. Pipkin gained statewide visibility back in 2004 during his unsuccessful run to replace Barbara Mikulski in the U.S. Senate.

But is this really everything it appears? Is Pipkin really angling to knock Gilchrest out of Congress? Or is this a plan to actually help Gilchrest?

Pipkin would likely divide the anti-incumbent primary vote to Gilchrest’s benefit. Considering the number of prominent Republicans – including former Governor Ehrlich – who have already come out in support of Harris, Gilchrest may feel sufficiently endangered to ask Pipkin to help him out this way.

And Pipkin has nothing to lose by running, since he doesn’t have to vacate his own state senate seat to do it.

If I were Gilchrest, this is the sort of divide-and-conquer plan I would come up with.

On the other hand, this may very well be exactly what it looks like: Pipkin challenging a vulnerable Congressman so he can take his place.

Either way, it should be an interesting primary to watch.

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Campaign Finance Shorts, Part Four

Here are quick breakdowns of District 39, a few accounts of statewide interest and the Prince George’s County Executive race.

District 39


Adam: Delegate Saqib Ali has been conducting a hot-and-cold guerilla war against Senator Nancy King since at least last summer. Ali’s net gain ($82,282.04) was second only to Delegate Heather Mizeur (D-20) among MoCo Delegates and was almost four times King’s. Things are getting so bad that King might just be relieved if Ali finally pulled the trigger on a Senate race. Neither of the remaining two Delegates, Charles Barkley or Kirill Reznik, had a good fundraising performance last year. If Ali’s seat opens up, both of them should be concerned about challengers.

Statewide


Adam: There’s a new Big Daddy in town as Speaker Mike Busch outgained Senate President Mike Miller in both gross and net receipts. Miller must regain his coveted nickname in all haste! Governor Martin O’Malley already has enough money to blow away any GOP contender other than former Governor Bob Ehrlich, but potential primary challenger and former Prince George’s County Executive Wayne Curry’s fundraising capability is unknown. Attorney General Doug Gansler could be sitting on $10 million by the time he runs for Governor in 2014. Comptroller Peter Franchot’s fundraising gap with Gansler, against whom he may run for Governor, is becoming increasingly obvious.

Marc: Former Governor Ehrlich raised $76,000 in 2009 (and spent $86,000). He could run a very competitive race for the legislature if he wanted to set his sights a little lower than the Governor’s mansion.

Judd Legum, running in District 30 where there is a Republican incumbent, raised an impressive $65,000. Conservative blog Red Maryland sensed the threat and tried to discredit Legum, which was nicely rebutted at MPW. Red Maryland seemed particularly concerned that Legum raised money from his in-laws in New York. Speaking as someone who has occasionally convinced his Illinois based in-laws to donate to Maryland political causes, I say good for Legum for having a good relationship with his wife’s family.

Baltimore County Executive Jim Smith raised $320,000, bringing his total to over $1 million for his State Senate race. Smith is seeking to replace Andy Harris, who is running for Congress. It is not the easiest district for a Democrat, with highly touted challenger Pat Foerster, former president of the Maryland State Teachers Association, only getting 43% of the vote in the Democratic wave of 2006.

Prince George’s County Executive


Adam: Former Delegate Rushern Baker looks good at the moment, although he could do a better job on financial disclosure. Hopefully, he is not over-using lump sums. One of our spies in the county had this to say about the contest:

[Baker] is off to a great start and the union endorsements help with momentum building. I can’t say he’s running away with it at this point because I know how machines are in our county. They have slipped noticeably in the last few election cycles but they are still formidable. Senators Nathaniel Exum, Anthony Muse, Ulysses Currie and David Harrington could very well back Councilman Sam Dean. Muse is the wild card because he may run. Also, Harrington is going to be in a barnburner with Delegate Victor Ramirez in a district where Rushern is extremely popular. He may elect to sit that one out if he thinks Rushern would then endorse Victor. Although Councilman Dean’s personal campaign account is sparse, he is on a couple of slates with significant money that I believe he controls. [Editor’s note: one of them is shown above.] If I am not mistaken, his wife may be the chairwoman of one of the slates.

Another candidate to watch out for is Michael Jackson. While I believe the Cheye Calvo incident will be a factor, it won’t be as big a factor as one would think. Jackson’s base is the Inner Beltway, particularly working class African-Americans. Unfortunately for him, what base Dean has is in the Inner Beltway. Dean is close to Exum’s daughter, Camille, and unless it becomes obvious he can’t win, they are rallying the troops to him. Currie is also close to Dean so that’s another one to watch.

Delegate Gerron Levi is probably a long shot but you can’t discount the only woman in a race with a lot of males who will significantly split the vote. In House races in ‘06, I believe women led the ticket in 5 of the 8 races with Veronica Turner being the overall top vote-getter in the county. Women are probably 60% of the primary vote.

In the final analysis, Rushern is off to a good start and has an opportunity to separate himself a bit while others try to get their legs up under them. He’s starting to shift a bit from strictly fundraising to field operations. If he can connect with Inner Beltway voters, this thing is over. He does well outside the Beltway and with white voters. If he can be credible inside the Beltway, it’s a rout.

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Party Performance in the Central and Lower Eastern Shore

Today we’ll look at election results in six counties in the Central and Lower Eastern Shore.

Caroline County
0.5% of Registered Voters (22nd)
Solid Republican


The entire statehouse delegation and County Commission are Republicans. Enough said.

Talbot County
0.7% of Registered Voters (19th)
Leans Republican


Historically, the statehouse delegation went Republican and the Democrats captured a majority of county government seats. This year, the Democrats lost both. One more election like this and Talbot might have to be rated Solid Republican.

Dorchester County
0.6% of Registered Voters (20th)
Split


Dorchester usually sends Republicans to the statehouse and Democrats to the county government. Democrats had a good year in 2010 despite the GOP’s wave, but it’s too soon to say that the county leans in their favor. Like Kent County, Dorchester voted for Ehrlich, Mikulski and Kratovil.

Somerset County
0.4% of Registered Voters (23rd)
Split


Republican candidates do better at the top of the ticket and Democrats do better for county offices. In the last three cycles, the Democrats had 8-5 margins for county seats. Somerset is another county that voted for Ehrlich, Mikulski and Kratovil.

Wicomico County
1.6% of Registered Voters (15th)
Leans Republican


Most Republicans win here, but the success of a few prominent Democrats like County Executive Rick Pollitt and Delegates Norman Conway and Rudolph Cane prevent us from classifying this jurisdiction as Solid Republican.

Worcester County
1.0% of Registered Voters (17th)
Leans Republican


Like several other Eastern Shore counties, Worcester has tended to vote for Republicans for state office and Democrats for county office. But this year, the GOP won five of seven County Commission seats and voters supported both Eric Wargotz and Andy Harris. That puts Worcester in the Republicans’ corner for now.

We’ll summarize all of our results tomorrow.

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Fourth Quarter House Campaign Finance Reports

By Marc Korman.

Back in October I wrote about campaign finance reports for the US House of Representatives candidates. Unlike state campaign finance reports, federal reports are released quarterly. Reports from the 4th quarter of 2009, covering October 1st to December 31st, are now online and it is time for an update.


1st Congressional District

In October, I wrote that Congressman Frank Kratovil is “Maryland’s most endangered incumbent.” I meant it then and it is just as true today. Unless former-Governor Ehrlich takes the plunge, this will be the only Maryland campaign to receive significant national attention in 2010.

During the 4th quarter, Kratovil raised a respectable amount and has a healthy amount in the bank. But despite that nice chunk of change, Kratovil has a lot of problems. His announced opponent, State Senator Andy Harris, is so far unopposed which is a significant improvement for him given his long primary battle in 2008 where the incumbent Republican, vanquished in the primary, endorsed the Democrat. Harris may start 2010 with less cash on hand, but he also starts with a double digit lead in the polls. In 2008 Kratovil did not pull ahead in the polls until around October, but the playing field will be very different this year now that Kratovil is an incumbent and the Democratic winds are no longer at his back.

4th Congressional District

Congresswoman Donna Edwards caught a break when Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey decided not to challenge her. But she took his potential challenge, as well as the stirrings from Delegate Herman Taylor, seriously and raised significantly more in the last quarter. She still has a lot less than a typical House incumbent, but her numbers are a significant improvement over the last quarter when she raised about $39,000 and had $56,000 in the bank.

I could not find a federal report for Delegate Herman Taylor. It is hard to see how Taylor can pull off an upset barring a scandal, especially if he does not have federal funds ready to go.

6th Congressional District

Long time incumbent Roscoe Bartlett continues his streak of not showing too much interest in fundraising or campaigning. But he is still in fine shape financially given his Republican leaning district.

One of Barlett’s potential opponents, Casey Clark, is making a spirited showing. Since Clark began his campaign, he has raised approximately $95,000. That presents two problems. First, it is significantly less than the $150,000 Clark claimed to have raised earlier in January. Though it is possible he raised $50,000 more in January. Second, that is just nowhere near enough to be competitive against a long time incumbent who has so much more in the bank and will be assisted by national Republicans if he is seriously threatened.

2006 Democratic nominee Andrew Duck continues to have low fundraising. His only hope of getting through the primary is significant grassroots support built up over two previous runs.

8th Congressional District

Congressman Chris Van Hollen is safe in his district, but has a lot of insurance with his multi-million dollar campaign account. A significant sum of that impressive total will be directed to House races across the country as part of Van Hollen’s efforts as DCCC Chair. The outcome of the midterm elections could have a huge impact on Van Hollen’s future in the House. He originally did not want to return as DCCC Chair, was persuaded to by Speaker Pelosi, and now may be in charge of the political arm of the House Democrats in a brutal election year. It is early and November is a long way away, but if House Democrats suffer serious setbacks, Van Hollen will look less like a “Man of the House” and more like a future Senate candidate.

And All The Rest

All of the other Maryland incumbent House members should coast to reelection. They are all well positioned financially. Each has a minimum of $500,000 in the bank and raised in the six figures last quarter.

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