Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part Five

In our final part, we examine the last three potential at-large contenders.

Hans Riemer, Silver Spring

Riemer moved into Montgomery County in December 2004 and ran unsuccessfully for the County Council District 5 seat in 2006. He has lots of experience as a national political activist, working against George W. Bush’s social security privatization plan, running Rock the Vote and working for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign as his national youth director. He currently works for AARP.

Riemer has a number of important strengths. He was a maniacal door-knocker in 2006, has a knack for making a good impression, has quickly developed a network of friends across the county (including your author, who supported him last time) and has participated in numerous political and advocacy campaigns. He raised over $130,000 for his last council race and that was before he went to work for Obama. His weakness is that he does not have a long history of activism in the county. His service on Action Committee for Transit’s board was interrupted by his employment with Obama. Still, Hans Riemer will be a major contender for an at-large seat because of his progressive background, campaign experience and ability to raise money.

Spy: Can’t see him winning, but he is politically immersed and was gracious after losing to Valerie Ervin. He would be a dark horse candidate. I believe he will run.

Spy: He is someone that can be a progressive consensus builder in Rockville.

Spy: Hans also works for the AARP so he should be able to deliver credible messages to the “Obama Generation” as well as Seniors. He will have to work against the potential “Downcounty” heaviness on the Council (Marc, Valerie, Nancy, Hans and George). To do this, he’ll have to work hard to prove to the UpCounty folks that he can represent them too and that he’s able to relate to their concerns. He is a good fundraiser and will be able to fundraise a lot of money, which is necessary for an At-Large bid, and if done early, could scare some others out of the race. He would be an asset to the council as a new, young voice in contrast to the status quo.

Spy: Young - experienced, smart and multi-ethnic appeal as his wife is minority. Cute child. Said to be exploring a run as an at large candidate. Ran against Valerie and is rumored to be supported by her for the at large spot. Don't know his politics or his alliances. With experience in Rock the Vote, AARP and the Obama campaign - could be a formidable candidate especially if he can still draw on some of that West Coast money.

Spy: I think Hans will be a strong candidate. You can’t even count the number of friends this guy has made over the last few years. A talented, fresh face to shake up an underwhelming council. While he lost in 2006 his campaign was quite well run and this is the type of guy who learns from experience. Of all the names, only Hans seems strikingly different than the same-old tired list of Council candidates. He’s a proven money-raiser and knows how to campaign. He’d be appealing to new, younger voters and senior citizens alike, and is well positioned to be the strongest voice on sustainability issues.

Spy: Smart and likeable. Could be a dark horse. Claims to have the ability to mobilize young voters - but didn’t do so when he ran against Valerie Ervin in the 2006 District 5 primary.

Spy: Hans Riemer would be a great at-large candidate, who could bring in younger, progressive Democrats and minorities. His run (and loss) in the District 5 Council race a couple of years ago was good preparation for a second try, and I think it’s a sign of his political talent that he and Valerie seem to have a good relationship now.

Spy: He’s been planning to run since he lost. He is much more established than he was a few years ago and is a logical additional vote for the Floreen/Ervin/Knapp/Leventhal side of the council. He has the organizational know-how to run countywide and can raise the money.

Spy: Hans Riemer is one of the more frequently mentioned serious at-large candidates. Though Valerie Ervin handily defeated him, Riemer seems to have smartened from the loss and has built strategic alliances since then. The key fact in his favor is that he raised a large wad of cash for his first run for office, both proving that he can raise money and also that he must have built serious name recognition in D5 after having spent so much money there three years ago. Since branching out to serve on the brain trust of Obama for America, AARP and ACT, he should be a fundraising juggernaut compared to the other challengers. His youth also gives him both a fresh image and makes him harder to tie to the older battle-lines (ie: End Gridlock). Keep an eye on Hans Riemer. He is likely to gain the support of perhaps some incumbent councilmembers, as well as Obama volunteers, progressive activists, labor, business, and more.

Steve Silverman, Silver Spring

Prior to County Executive Ike Leggett’s hire of Silverman as his new Director of Economic Development, a possible comeback by the former at-large Council Member was one of the hottest rumors in the county. That was probably part of the reason why Leggett brought him in. Few people believe that Silverman will run again now. But what happens if he figures out that Leggett will not give him the resources he needs to do his job?

Spy: Can’t see him doing that, but he does burn to win and loves wielding power. Enough with the retreads. Let’s develop a new bench.

Spy: This rumor doesn’t pass the credibility smell test. No way in hell he’s going to trade in his cozy $180,000 County job for the right to go back to the Council and make 50% less. “Been there, done that” saying certainly applies here.

Spy: Steve Silverman is the other all-star (along with Becky Wagner) on your list. He is already getting rave reviews from inside and outside DED and he’s only been on the job a few weeks. He is “A-list” material, without a doubt, with a proven track record from his previous service on the Council and a practical, no-nonsense approach to local government that is focused more on results and helping people than ideology or political correctness. He would instantly be a leading candidate for any office in the County, if he wants to run in 2010. That is the only question. He knows how to get along with others, even those whose views differ from his, and the County would benefit from more true leaders, like Steve, at the helm right now in these very difficult times.

Spy: Steve is making much better money than Council Members. Been there, done that.

Spy: Not sure he would run, but if he did, he surely would round out the leadership team. This man is a leader. Steve is honest, practical, effective, and respected by residents, community groups, labor, business and other elected officials. Indeed, his former rival, Ike Leggett, has called on him to serve.

Spy: He burned too many bridges in his last campaign. Leggett is too smart to have brought him on if he thinks he would be a rival. He has been a state official, and tried for county exec, - wouldn't another run for at-large be a come down?

Spy: I’ve never heard of him as a potential candidate for council. I had heard rumors of him running if Leggett didn’t (a big rumor a few months ago), but hopefully he settles into his new post.

Spy: Interesting to think about Silverman returning to public life. Though I know many a person who now regrets supporting Leggett over Silverman, most of these are knowledgeable political operators. They mostly voted for Leggett because they thought he was more liberal, but now find him to be either an incompetent manager or an intentional waffler. They do not outnumber the much larger group of primary voters who (fairly or unfairly) drank the Kool Aid and started believing Silverman was the devil in developer’s clothing waiting to plow over the Ag Reserve. It is sort of sad, actually, as Silverman seems like a nice guy and Ike seems more like a weasel every day. In any case, Silverman would hurt George Leventhal’s re-election prospects. But, is he really going to run for office after picking up the high-profile post he just accepted?

Spy: Has a much better job now as Economic Development Director. The big surprise would be if he decides the Leggett administration is dysfunctional, resigns and runs for County Executive against Leggett!

Becky Wagner, Bethesda

Wagner has been the Executive Director of Interfaith Works (formerly Community Ministry), one of the county’s most prominent charities, for about ten years. She is one of the biggest names in the county’s non-profit community and is well known by both the political class and the business world. She was named a 2008 Washingtonian of the Year by the magazine of the same name.

Wagner has never run for office before but she did work as an aide to Senator Paul Sarbanes. As a successful non-profit executive, she should know how to raise money. Her organization’s mission of helping homeless people and the working poor should give her plenty of credibility with progressives. Her biggest potential problem is her opposition to the county’s living wage law, part of an effort by non-profits to successfully exempt themselves from the law that ultimately passed. Wagner is a heavyweight contender for an at-large seat.

Spy: Becky Wagner is the standout among the early names surfacing so far. She is the real deal, a true, proven, visionary leader with deep roots and incredibly broad support in the community. She has dedicated most of her life to making the community we live in a better place, especially for those less fortunate, and she is a good manager who knows how to run a tight ship. She has earned lasting respect and admiration from everyone who has ever gone through Leadership Montgomery, run a local business, had any interaction with Community Ministries or dozens of other major non-profit organizations she has helped in the County, or basically anyone who has ever met her. She is the kind of serious, dedicated community leader (and I use the term “leader” deliberately here) who you’d hope in your wildest dreams might be persuaded to run for public office one day. She is on everyone’s “A-list” and would be a huge asset to Montgomery County as a member of the Council. Just let me know when she launches her campaign committee and where to send the check. As leaders go, it doesn’t get any better than Becky Wagner.

Spy: Runs a very professional, respected non profit. Has political experience working for former Sen. Sarbanes. Can’t see her having the patience for the B.S. required for running and serving as an at-large council member in Montgomery. However, if she does, she could be a very strong candidate. Already has a built in network with her non-profit and has a track record of serving others.

Spy: She knows the non-profit worlds but is there money there for her campaign? Does she have her feet on the ground and is she grounded enough to hit the trail running? I have my doubts - and do not see her on the circuits, nor have I heard her speaking forcefully on any cause that could rally the faithful.

Spy: Becky Wagner is the new Jane De Winter, meaning people are floating her name quite a bit right now as a potential serious at-large challenger. Unfortunately, she suffers from the same problems as Jane De Winter - no name recognition, no demonstrated fundraising ability, and nothing particularly exciting or different about her, except that she is a woman whose name is not Duchy Trachtenburg. This seems like a real long-shot, even with incumbent support. Putting gender aside, the fundamentals of her candidacy are little different than that of Chris Paladino, who has no chance.

Spy: I know a lot of people who will drop everything to support Becky Wagner… I see Hans and Becky as the only two on your list who will be able to excite people enough that they will open up their checkbooks to give generous contributions.

Spy: The strongest possible non-incumbent (other than Silverman). Wide reach across the county, strong base in the religious and non-profit communities, impressive fundraising potential. Excellent speaking skills and knowledge of the issues. If I were an incumbent at-large member, I’d be very worried about Becky. She needs to make amends with labor for her opposition to the living wage legislation years ago, which she should be able to do, given labor's antipathy to Trachtenberg and desire to back a winner in 2010.

Final comment:
At the moment, we see Becky Wagner, Hans Riemer and Jane De Winter as the most likely and viable at-large challengers. But it’s still very early. Each of them needs to start running hard, raising money and gaining visibility SOON. Whoever slacks off will fall behind in the early contest for surrogates, endorsements and the critical Apple Ballot. And don’t forget that all four incumbents are in the race. So, to all the candidates, we say this – start showing us some hustle and run!

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Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part Four

Here are four more actual, potential, or improbable at-large candidates.

Guled Kassim, Silver Spring

Kassim is a Somali immigrant who grew up in Kemp Mill, served in the Marines and became a real estate settlement officer. He is young, good-looking, polite and shows up at a lot of events. In 2006, he ran for Delegate in District 19. Despite being on a slate with incumbent Hank Heller and successful candidate Ben Kramer, Kassim finished eighth of eight candidates in the Democratic primary. Unlike many candidates who lost last time, he has stayed active in politics. His active support of Kramer in the 2009 special election will not play well among progressives. Given his last-place finish in a Delegate race, it is hard to imagine him being a top-tier contender at-large. He has a campaign website up but it does not mention the office he is seeking.

Spy: A U.S. Marine Corps veteran and Continental African, Guled could energize the rainbow coalition that helped Nancy Navarro win in District 4. He would need to overcome anti-Muslim prejudice, which he is easily likeable enough to do if he campaigns hard, especially in the Jewish community.

Spy: Guled Kassim had a dismal performance as a D19 delegate. I can say with complete confidence that he has no chance as an at-large candidate, unless he were to mysteriously come across $300,000. Guled's only hope at public office would have been had he been appointed to replace Ben Kramer in Annapolis. Some had speculated such a deal had been made, but with Kramer’s loss, that door has shut.

Spy: Nice kid, better suited for District 19 than at-large Council.

Ben Kramer, Derwood

Delegate Ben Kramer (D-19) came within 63 votes of becoming the new District 4 County Council Member. No one knows for sure whether he will run for re-election as a Delegate, challenge Nancy Navarro, run at-large or not run at all. He never conceded to Navarro and never endorsed her against Robin Ficker, facts that have not escaped the notice of other politicians and activists around the county. Kramer’s capacity for more self-funding is a mystery given that he has loaned his campaigns a total of $220,450 – money that has not been paid back.

Spy: He would certainly have the money (although, I can’t imagine it’s easy for him to spend all of his own money and never fundraise), but I just don’t think he’s that likeable. He is aloof and comes across as if he thinks he’s better than everyone (I think he does, and that he’s smarter than everyone). Not to mention that he talks about himself in the 3rd person! As your research has pointed out, the General Election electorate is not his base and he’d have a tough time with such a crowded field.

Spy: How much is he willing to invest this time?

Spy: Could he self-finance an at large council campaign? Would he have broad appeal - would he work hard for it? Where is his support group? Does he think he is safe in Annapolis? Guess I have more questions than answers here.

Spy: This just doesn’t make any sense. He was the favorite in an open race special election and lost in many of the places where the Kramer brand should be at its strongest. So he’s going to run against incumbents across the whole county?

Spy: May want another go... but I think he would rather take on Navarro again in District 4.

Spy: Will he run on the Trachtenberg slate? Politics makes strange bedfellows. Easy to imagine him winning the Gazette and Post endorsements as a candidate who wants to “run government like a business” but then losing the Democratic primary.

Spy: The only person that comes close to former Delegate Robin Ficker’s record of unsuccessful bids for public office is Ben Kramer. His track record as a candidate has been awful. In this most recent run, Kramer faced his ideal voting population: older, whiter, more affluent, more Jewish. If he can’t win a council seat under those circumstances, he never will. But this raises a more obvious point. Why so many people (including Ben Kramer himself) thought he would easily win the D4 special election is beyond me, but I hope this last campaign puts the fabled Kramer mystique to rest for good. Perhaps a pleasant side-effect from this could be that Rona Kramer faces a strong challenge in 2010.

Spy: Ben Kramer is damaged goods and shouldn’t even try it.

Cary Lamari, Silver Spring

Lamari is a former President of the Montgomery County Civic Federation and is one of the most prominent and knowledgeable civic activists in the county. He finished eleventh of thirteen at-large candidates in 2006 and ran third in the 2009 District 4 special election Democratic primary. Lamari’s biggest problem is money. In the 2009 District 4 special primary, he was outspent 9-1 by both Nancy Navarro and Ben Kramer. That election, which was limited to an area containing Lamari’s best friends and supporters (including many long-time allies in Leisure World) was probably his best chance to win office.

Spy: Cary Lamari has zero chance of winning an at-large seat. The Civic Federation/civic activist population makes up no more than 5-10% of the Democratic Primary population, and that is on a good day. Lamari may think he can pull off a Marc Elrich-like victory built on multiple runs for the Council, but Elrich has something that Lamari does not. Elrich has traditionally been considered a progressive activist IN ADDITION to being a civic activist. In the 2006 primary that carried Elrich to office, there was a clear progressive wave in the primary that was aided by high-profile, head-to-head primary battles up-ticket. With no such action in 2010 AND the fact that Lamari is not very progressive, he stands no chance. Elrich himself might be in danger of losing his seat and would be foolish to slate up with Lamari.

Spy: Nice guy, but please. The voters have spoken. Replace the battery on your hearing aid and listen to what the voters are saying.

Spy: If Lamari runs for Council At-Large, he will likely take votes away from Elrich (who gets backing from the civics, as well). This would not be good for Marc because he’s going to see some names missing in his supporter list in 2010 that were with him in 2006. Lamari does not have the fundraising capability to raise the money necessary for an at-large bid; he barely had enough for the district race.

Spy: Gaining maturity and stature. If he energizes civic activists to get out and work hard for him, he could pull off an Elrich-like surprise - perhaps at Elrich’s expense.

Spy: Three times a charm? More likely three times and he’s out. Lamari tends to know more than anyone about the county issues during debates, but something about him puts people off and it shows in his election results.

Spy: Cary’s strength is with his neighborhood and with the civics - it did not carry him that far in 2006 when he ran at large. I do not think he can finance an at large race - his campaign was underfunded this time and he came in a poor third on his turf. He may well run as he has inferred that - but I would guess he might again try the District 4 race. He also has thrown his hat in for the last two times for the planning board and that went nowhere. He may well win the Stassen label.

Spy: Will run again. This time at-large. He will lose really big time.

Chris Paladino, Silver Spring

Former Red Cross executive Chris Paladino withdrew from the District 4 race before it started due to family health issues. Paladino really believed he could win and our informants tell us he was ready to sink lots of his own money into the race. But we never got a chance to see him in action as a candidate. His fundraising, issue knowledge, people skills, work ethic and campaign savvy were never tested in the heat of battle. He may challenge Navarro in District 4, run at-large or not run at all.

Spy: Same problem as he would have had in the Special – people don’t know who he is and he’s going to get lost in the crowd. He may be able to fundraise, but he’s not a politician and he didn’t have any campaign plan (or intention of hiring staff) for the Special. He’d really need to hire someone qualified, but still, it’s a longshot.

Spy: For five minutes during the special election, Paladino was on everyone’s mind. But he has no political experience and a countywide race requires it. Either that, or a much bigger bank account.

Spy: Yeah right. Paladino is rumored to have $75,000 in self-financing available, but that is a drop in the bucket for a no-name, unestablished candidate in an at-large race. He’ll need many times more than that. Plus, with some of the other names floating around, he stands no chance. The most important question is will any of the incumbents slate up with him. The answer will undoubtedly be no.

Spy: A Knapp wanna-be without any union support. He sees himself as an entrepreneur and thinks everyone else can do it. Not compassionate despite his Red Cross background; had hoped to get the Praisner endorsement and have that propel him into office. Not aligned with any major interest group unless it might be the Chamber - (which was said to have been poised to support him last time - aligned somehow I’ve heard with Cheryl Kagan - more to learn there). Not curious nor charismatic. Does not understand the multi-layered strata of county politics. Can self finance to over $100,000, so he may be in if he senses an opening. At large - doubt it because he has not ventured out across the county yet. Son is in private school which may hurt him.

Spy: Non-entity with little $ and less familiarity. He is totally unprepared and has even less knowledge. No experience in civic matters. A complete unknown and totally unprepared. They'll make mincemeat of him in a forum or debate.

Spy: Unknown to voters and opinion-makers. Will have trouble raising sufficient money.

We will finish tomorrow.

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Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part Three

Today we will begin looking at rumored candidates for the at-large race. Some are actual candidates, some are potential candidates and others probably will not run. We examine them in three parts, all in alphabetical order, and supplement our remarks with comments from our all-seeing spy network.

Jane De Winter, Kensington

De Winter is the former President of the Montgomery County Council of Parent Teacher Associations. She has been a civic and education activist in the county for over a decade. Her position with the PTAs gives her access to other education activists throughout the county, a thorough understanding of one of the county’s premier political issues and an acquaintance with the school unions (including the ever-critical MCEA).

De Winter has not run for office before, has not contributed to other state or county candidates and is not known to be affiliated with one wing or the other on the existing council. Her advantages are intelligence and experience. Her fundraising capability is a question. De Winter is running now, with an appearance at Valerie Ervin’s recent fundraiser and an early version of a campaign website online.

Spy: Jane will have an advantage of name recognition county-wide, at least with the PTAs, which will help her some. She has a Ph.D. in Economics from UPenn and could really be an asset on the council as someone who truly understands the economic impact of decisions (and looks at things through this lens). She could really help on the MFP Committee, as well.

Spy: She is off and running and is lining up the MCEA folks - she hopes. She kicked off in February with an exploratory committee. Does not have the repartee needed nor the easy way with a crowd - but her PTA experience and Rolodex could well pay off.

Spy: I don’t know her personally, but she has made no secret of her desire to run. She has been attending D16 events, the Spring Ball, etc. She is ready to go.

Spy: Could also be a strong contender if she sharpens her message and targets one or two specific incumbents and their records. Will be very competitive for the Apple Ballot endorsement.

Spy: Jane De Winter generated some buzz earlier this year, when her name was floating around. That seems to have died down and most political insiders have moved on. She has no name recognition, no known fundraising prowess, and unless she can muscle together some support from incumbents, she will have little chance. The Apple Ballot could provide a lifeline, but it will likely be unavailable unless one of her other cons changes (ie: incumbent suport or money). A strong bid by Jane De Winter could, however, pose problems for other women running at-large.

Pete Fosselman, Kensington

Fosselman has been the Mayor of Kensington since 2006. He ran for Delegate in District 18 in 2002 and finished last of seven candidates in the Democratic primary. He is a principal of Rodgers Consulting and has owned more than one small business in Kensington.

Fosselman is a popular Mayor, has many friends (including your author) and is a major player in District 18. He would be a favorite for any open Senate or Delegate seat in the district. He is also one of a very small number of Montgomery politicians who backed Martin O’Malley for Governor when Doug Duncan was still running. His job at Rodgers and experience as a business owner could help him raise money from the business community. But the Town of Kensington, with its 768 households, is a very small base for an at-large campaign. Fosselman would need a lot of help to compete county-wide. He is not a confirmed candidate for any office other than his current one.

Spy: Nice guy, very approachable and would bring a mixture of common sense and pragmatism to the Council.

Spy: I would describe him as “universally liked and respected.” He has a great temperament for governance.

Spy: He shows up in many places - attended a forum on how to run a campaign in January; could be the first gay candidate for council - but I think he is more Delegate inclined. But what has been his showcase in Kensington - a hot bed of controversy? Street lights were the only thing I can think of - the Safeway and the flower pots on Connecticut - come on - what could he run on?

Spy: He has shown he can actually govern, but the last time he ran for anything larger than the Town of Kensington he came in last. Does a county wide campaign make sense? On a personal note, I really like the guy and he is a great supporter of the county party.

Spy: Pete is energetic, likeable, very popular in Kensington and could pull gay support away from Duchy Trachtenberg.

Spy: Would make a great Councilman. Unknown outside of Kensington. Can raise some $ but enough?. Works hard. In my very humble and unsophisticated opinion he could win but only with a lot of $ and work. I also don’t think the desire is there.

Spy: Pete Fosselman has been spotted around town more times than Elvis. This can only mean that he is at least considering running for another position. At-large council is what seems to come up the most. He definitely has going for him that he's photogenic and sometimes even mistaken for our Governor. Nevertheless, his name recognition is probably not high, and his fundraising prowess is not yet clear either. Most importantly, it is difficult to comment on Fosselman without knowing more about his politics and where he fits in the County political spectrum. Some consider him a protege of Sen. Madaleno, but the only evidence we've seen of this is his opposition to the Purple Line. Does he have backers on the Council? Not that I have heard, but let's wait and see.

Larry Giammo, Rockville

Giammo is the former Mayor of Rockville. We speculated last December that he might be running against District 3 County Council Member Phil Andrews. Since that time, we have heard very little about him. Giammo has been a longtime Independent who, along with Fosselman, supported O’Malley against Duncan. Mayors of Rockville tend to be big players in county politics, but Giammo’s silence indicates he may not be in the 2010 mix.

Spy: Never seemed content to just be Mayor of Rockville - I would guess he has a campaign in his future but he has been quiet since he left office; was never quiet in his disagreements with Duncan - could he be thinking about a county Exec run some time down the line? I don't see him anywhere - so if he is a candidate - he must be doing it in stealth mode.

Spy: Wasn’t Larry Giammo a Republican until recently? I have to believe that the days of party-switching opportunists easily winning seats might be over -- but only so long as his opponents are willing to raise that fact in a primary. If so, it would be a deal-breaker for many Democratic primary voters. The one thing that might save him from this is that it is unclear if people will use resources to call out a challenger on something like this. In any case, I thought Giammo was considering challenging Phil Andrews. If so, he might be more at home in that race, since Andrews seems to be imitating Republicans lately with his anti-collective bargaining, anti-early voting, fiscal conservative positions.

Spy: He is almost invisible outside of Rockville, where I think he is running his business.

Spy: Has support and necessary $ if he wants to raise it. I don’t think the desire is there but I for one will certainly urge him to jump in now that I know his name is in circulation.

Spy: Larry has to decide whether or not he is a Democrat. If he is not, he can’t get elected to the Montgomery County Council in 2010. If he re-registers as one, he needs to explain why he was registered Independent for so long. This will not be a trivial problem in a Democratic Primary. He has a strong base in Rockville and would be very competitive for the Gazette and Post endorsements.

More tomorrow!

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Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part Two

Believe it or not, the County Council at-large race is almost upon us. And of course we have the inside scoop on the incumbents, the prospective challengers and their chances. But there are a number of factors that influence the outcome of any race. Here are the questions we are asking in assessing what 2010 will look like.

1. Who can raise enough money?
A successful at-large campaign will require a full-time campaign manager, a combination of paid and volunteer staff, disciplined use of a voter tracking database, multiple mailings and other ads, a press operation and multi-media outreach (including to blogs!). All of that will take money – lots of it. Our political consultant sources tell us that just one county-wide mailing could cost up to $50,000. We are advising at-large challengers that they must have $100,000 in the bank by January 2010 in order to be taken seriously by the county’s power brokers and should plan on spending $300,000 by the end of the campaign. There are a very limited number of contenders who can raise that kind of money on their own.

2. Will there be any slates?
At the moment, there are no slates. But that may change by next year. There are three good reasons to form slates: mutual protection, knocking off enemies and money. The escalating cost of campaigning is making that third reason especially important since slates can do joint advertising. We may see incumbents – possibly together with one or more challengers – forming at least one slate even if they have to hold their noses to do it. And the creation of one slate may very well stimulate the creation of a rival slate. The current 5-4 split on the council (Nancy Navarro, Valerie Ervin, George Leventhal, Nancy Floreen and Mike Knapp vs. Phil Andrews, Marc Elrich, Duchy Trachtenberg and Roger Berliner) may offer a rough starting point here but nothing is guaranteed. Former County Executive Doug Duncan organized a slate in 2002 and used it evict his greatest adversary, incumbent at-large Council Member Blair Ewing. Would Ike Leggett participate in any slate?

3. What will the unions do?
Last time, the unions went their separate ways more than once. In the County Executive race, MCGEO endorsed Ike Leggett, SEIU supported Steve Silverman and MCEA stayed neutral. In the at-large race, the Police, Fire Fighters and SEIU supported Nancy Floreen but the other unions did not. Labor was relatively united in supporting George Leventhal, Marc Elrich and Duchy Trachtenberg, who non-coincidentally finished first, second and third in the at-large race.

This time, the public employee unions have a common priority: getting rid of Duchy Trachtenberg. They are split on whether to support Elrich, who rubbed some of them the wrong way in voting to hold up the FY 2009 budget because of his disagreement with the structure of the property tax increase. Moreover, the unions may have differing opinions on the challengers.

Labor is always at their best when they stick together. The Apple Ballot, union member canvassing, independent expenditures and PAC contributions are a powerful combination if employed in concert. If labor rallies around one or two at-large challengers, they will maximize their impact on the race.

4. Who can attract support from the business community?
Many activists have two misconceptions about the county’s business community: first, that they are monolithic, and second, that they care only about encouraging development and building the ICC. That is far too simplistic an analysis.

Developers will always contribute to county candidates because their livelihoods depend on land use. But the rest of the business community mirrors the diversity of the county. Check out the Board of Directors of the Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce. It includes representatives of multi-national corporations, real estate firms, law firms, hospitals, banks, IT firms, utilities and even the Gazette and Montgomery College. And there are countless more businesses – especially small businesses – who are members of the local chambers. Two issues unite most of these businesses: transportation and tax policy. Both apply to the state level as well as the county level. Candidates who hope to draw support from business outside of the development community must emphasize how they would successfully deal with these issues.

In 2002, the business community gave substantial support to Doug Duncan’s End Gridlock County Council slate. These days, the Chamber of Commerce is more focused on promoting transportation and pro-business tax policy than it is on promoting politicians. But business money can still be had, and a challenger probably will not be able to win without it.

5. What will be the hot issues?
Education, development and traffic are perpetual issues in Montgomery County. In 2006, a strong economy, crowded schools and congested roads gave slow-growth candidates the edge. Next year, job creation won’t look like such a bad thing. Ben Kramer and Nancy Navarro both prioritized it in the 2009 District 4 race and together grabbed 88% of the primary vote. But the sleeper issue may be crime. Will incumbents who supported cutbacks in the police department pay a price?

Dear readers, we will be seeking answers to all of these questions throughout primary day. But enough! Now we will proceed to what you really want to know. Besides the incumbents, who is running at-large? Who could run? Who has the best chance of winning? Who should avoid embarrassing themselves? Our spies tell all, starting tomorrow. Don’t miss it!

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Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part One

Just like the rest of you, we are finished with District 4 and ready to move on to the mother of all MoCo races: County Council at-large. Who’s running? Who may be running? Who could win? Who shouldn’t bother? We asked our immense spy network and boy, were they willing to dish it!

The County Council at-large race is fascinating for several reasons. First, it is the only race along with County Executive that covers the entire county. Not even Congressional candidates have to run in that much territory. Second, since there are four at-large County Council Members, voters can pick up to four candidates. The sort of conventional calculations of candidates taking votes away from each other don’t always work out the way they do in a one-seat race. The winning candidates often attract support from different groups in the county and can have vigorous disagreements after they take office. Third, the resources needed to run at-large draw in all of the county’s political factions: business, labor, civic activists, immigrants, municipal and state officials and more. Everybody gets sucked into the at-large race whether they want to be or not!

We believe all four incumbents are running for re-election. In February, we ranked their chances and have seen nothing to change our opinion since then.

George Leventhal

Leventhal finished first in the 2006 Democratic primary, had a greater cash balance than any other at-large incumbent and has been raising money ever since. He is supported by a broad coalition of business, labor, non-profit, immigrant and civic groups and increased his visibility by working to get Nancy Navarro elected. We still believe Leventhal will finish first in 2010.

Nancy Floreen

Floreen was left off the Apple Ballot in 2006 and finished fourth in the primary. Since then, she has rebuilt her ties to labor and has maintained her business base. She is raising money and also gave substantial aid to Navarro, which should give her additional support. Floreen is a dogged campaigner who should not be underestimated. We are picking her second.

Marc Elrich

Elrich finally won in his fifth County Council race as an Apple Ballot insurgent. His recipe for success combined his Downcounty base, labor support, civic support and backing from the slow-growth movement that was very active in 2006. Elrich has maintained his civic constituency but has not raised any money and has had ups and downs with labor. We believe he must pick up his fundraising and renew his ties with the public employee unions or he will face a challenging race for re-election. One complication for his finances is that he refuses all developer contributions.

Duchy Trachtenberg

Trachtenberg ran as a slow-growth, pro-labor progressive and rode the Apple Ballot to victory last time. She has five big problems. First, the slow-growth movement is not what it once was. Second, her labor record has probably burned away most of her union support. Third, she has not been raising money. Fourth, other than the GLBT community (which she helped as the champion of the transgender anti-discrimination law), no powerful faction in the county has an incentive to work hard for her re-election. Fifth, her hard work for Ben Kramer in the 2009 District 4 special election will not be forgotten by some progressives. She is the most vulnerable incumbent.

Incumbents usually don’t go down easy. But they do go down. In 2002, at-large Council Member Ike Leggett vacated his seat to become Chairman of the state Democratic Party. A ruthless onslaught by then-County Executive Doug Duncan and the business community ousted at-large incumbent Blair Ewing from office, producing two freshmen (Floreen and Leventhal). Four years later, at-large Council Member Steve Silverman left his seat to run unsuccessfully for County Executive. The slow-growth climate and MCEA’s decision to leave Floreen and incumbent Mike Subin off the Apple Ballot combined to again produce an incumbent loss (by Subin) and two freshmen (Elrich and Trachtenberg).

We believe that one or perhaps two at-large seats may turn over next year. And so we tapped our underground informant organization to evaluate the actual, potential and even the improbable challengers. But first we have a number of questions about important factors in the next race. We’ll ask those questions in Part Two.

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