We have written extensively about the At-Large County Council race. But what about the District County Council elections?
Sadly for us but happily for the incumbents, there’s not very much to report.
At first glance, it should be easier for challengers to overthrow County Council incumbents in the county’s five districts for one simple reason: it is cheaper to run in a district than at-large. But that has not helped recent district challengers. The only two district incumbents who were thrown out in the last two cycles were Republicans unseated by Democrats: District 1’s Howard Denis, who was defeated by Roger Berliner in 2006, and District 2’s Nancy Dacek, who was defeated by Mike Knapp in 2002. All of the Democratic incumbents who were challenged won.
Here are the Democratic primary statistics for all district seats held by Democratic incumbents from the last two cycles.
2006 Cycle
District 2 (Upcounty): Incumbent Mike Knapp vs. Sharon Dooley
Vote Percentage: Knapp 63.8%, Dooley 36.2%
Contributions: Knapp $213,547, Dooley $16,339
District 3 (Rockville/Gaithersburg): Incumbent Phil Andrews vs. Bob Dorsey
Vote Percentage: Andrews 75.9%, Dorsey 24.1%
Contributions: Andrews $98,298, Dorsey $25,570
District 4 (East County): Incumbent Marilyn Praisner vs. Mike Jones
Vote Percentage: Praisner 79.9%, Jones 20.1%
Contributions: Praisner $52,326, Jones filed no reports
District 5 (Silver Spring/Takoma Park/Kensington): Open Seat
2002 Cycle
District 3: Incumbent Phil Andrews vs. Bob Dorsey
Vote Percentage: Andrews 53.6%, Dorsey 46.4%
Contributions: Andrews $75,173, Dorsey $68,072
District 4: Incumbent Marilyn Praisner vs. Steve Joseph
Vote Percentage: Praisner 80.2%, Joseph 19.8%
Contributions: Praisner $27,739, Joseph $42,942
District 5: Open Seat
Averages, District County Council Seats Held by Democratic Incumbents, 2002 and 2006
Vote Percentage: Incumbents 70.7%, Challengers 29.3%
Contributions: Incumbents $93,417, Challengers $30,585
The only competitive district race in the last two cycles was incumbent Phil Andrews’ 2002 win over Bob Dorsey in District 3, which includes Rockville and Gaithersburg. Dorsey was a Rockville City Council Member who ran as part of County Executive Doug Duncan’s End Gridlock slate. Andrews survived twelve(!) pro-Dorsey mailings and numerous negative attacks in part because he was endorsed by MCEA. (My, how times change.) None of the other challengers had any significant institutional support. The only Democratic district incumbent to lose in 1998 was District 3’s Bill Hanna, who was driven out by none other than Andrews.
The winning recipe for district incumbents is straightforward: pay attention to constituent service, earn the support of community leaders around the district, wrap up important endorsements and raise more money than the opponent(s). All of that sucks up the oxygen needed by any challenger. At-large elections are more complicated since they are four-person round robins. Lots more factors count in those contests, including incumbent-on-incumbent rivalries. Both the 2002 and 2006 races featured one open at-large seat and one defeated incumbent, producing two at-large freshmen.
Currently, the district races do not look as interesting as the at-large contest. No incumbent has a confirmed challenger yet. Here’s what we are hearing.
District 1, Incumbent Roger Berliner
East Bethesda civic leader Ilaya Hopkins is exploring a challenge. We sized up this potential race last month.
District 2, Incumbent Mike Knapp
Knapp may not run for re-election. If he does, he may face civic activist Sharon Dooley again. Dooley lost to Knapp by 28 points in 2006. If Knapp does not seek to return, Gaithersburg/Germantown Chamber of Commerce CEO Marilyn Balcombe and Dooley seem certain to run, and there may be other candidates.
District 3
We reported rumors that former Rockville Mayor Larry Giammo was a possible candidate for this seat a year ago, but have heard nothing since. Phil Andrews may run unopposed.
District 4
Delegate Ben Kramer (D-19) is still smarting from his special election loss to Nancy Navarro in the spring of 2009. Kramer never conceded the race and never endorsed Navarro against Republican Robin Ficker. He may seek to challenge Navarro again. If so, he will likely be supported by at-large incumbent Duchy Trachtenberg, who lost her chance to become Council Vice-President in 2010 and Council President in 2011 because of Navarro’s election. The last Navarro-Kramer contest was a bitter affair culminating in multiple negative mailers by Navarro against Kramer. A rematch would see no quarter given by either side.
District 5
Incumbent Valerie Ervin has no rivals on the horizon. She could very well be a kingmaker in the at-large race. Many suitors will no doubt seek her support.
If anything changes, we’ll be sure to let you know!
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Where are the District County Council Challengers?
Wednesday, June 10, 2009
Whispers of the At-Large Race, Part Three
Today we will begin looking at rumored candidates for the at-large race. Some are actual candidates, some are potential candidates and others probably will not run. We examine them in three parts, all in alphabetical order, and supplement our remarks with comments from our all-seeing spy network.
Jane De Winter, Kensington
De Winter is the former President of the Montgomery County Council of Parent Teacher Associations. She has been a civic and education activist in the county for over a decade. Her position with the PTAs gives her access to other education activists throughout the county, a thorough understanding of one of the county’s premier political issues and an acquaintance with the school unions (including the ever-critical MCEA).
De Winter has not run for office before, has not contributed to other state or county candidates and is not known to be affiliated with one wing or the other on the existing council. Her advantages are intelligence and experience. Her fundraising capability is a question. De Winter is running now, with an appearance at Valerie Ervin’s recent fundraiser and an early version of a campaign website online.
Spy: Jane will have an advantage of name recognition county-wide, at least with the PTAs, which will help her some. She has a Ph.D. in Economics from UPenn and could really be an asset on the council as someone who truly understands the economic impact of decisions (and looks at things through this lens). She could really help on the MFP Committee, as well.
Spy: She is off and running and is lining up the MCEA folks - she hopes. She kicked off in February with an exploratory committee. Does not have the repartee needed nor the easy way with a crowd - but her PTA experience and Rolodex could well pay off.
Spy: I don’t know her personally, but she has made no secret of her desire to run. She has been attending D16 events, the Spring Ball, etc. She is ready to go.
Spy: Could also be a strong contender if she sharpens her message and targets one or two specific incumbents and their records. Will be very competitive for the Apple Ballot endorsement.
Spy: Jane De Winter generated some buzz earlier this year, when her name was floating around. That seems to have died down and most political insiders have moved on. She has no name recognition, no known fundraising prowess, and unless she can muscle together some support from incumbents, she will have little chance. The Apple Ballot could provide a lifeline, but it will likely be unavailable unless one of her other cons changes (ie: incumbent suport or money). A strong bid by Jane De Winter could, however, pose problems for other women running at-large.
Pete Fosselman, Kensington
Fosselman has been the Mayor of Kensington since 2006. He ran for Delegate in District 18 in 2002 and finished last of seven candidates in the Democratic primary. He is a principal of Rodgers Consulting and has owned more than one small business in Kensington.
Fosselman is a popular Mayor, has many friends (including your author) and is a major player in District 18. He would be a favorite for any open Senate or Delegate seat in the district. He is also one of a very small number of Montgomery politicians who backed Martin O’Malley for Governor when Doug Duncan was still running. His job at Rodgers and experience as a business owner could help him raise money from the business community. But the Town of Kensington, with its 768 households, is a very small base for an at-large campaign. Fosselman would need a lot of help to compete county-wide. He is not a confirmed candidate for any office other than his current one.
Spy: Nice guy, very approachable and would bring a mixture of common sense and pragmatism to the Council.
Spy: I would describe him as “universally liked and respected.” He has a great temperament for governance.
Spy: He shows up in many places - attended a forum on how to run a campaign in January; could be the first gay candidate for council - but I think he is more Delegate inclined. But what has been his showcase in Kensington - a hot bed of controversy? Street lights were the only thing I can think of - the Safeway and the flower pots on Connecticut - come on - what could he run on?
Spy: He has shown he can actually govern, but the last time he ran for anything larger than the Town of Kensington he came in last. Does a county wide campaign make sense? On a personal note, I really like the guy and he is a great supporter of the county party.
Spy: Pete is energetic, likeable, very popular in Kensington and could pull gay support away from Duchy Trachtenberg.
Spy: Would make a great Councilman. Unknown outside of Kensington. Can raise some $ but enough?. Works hard. In my very humble and unsophisticated opinion he could win but only with a lot of $ and work. I also don’t think the desire is there.
Spy: Pete Fosselman has been spotted around town more times than Elvis. This can only mean that he is at least considering running for another position. At-large council is what seems to come up the most. He definitely has going for him that he's photogenic and sometimes even mistaken for our Governor. Nevertheless, his name recognition is probably not high, and his fundraising prowess is not yet clear either. Most importantly, it is difficult to comment on Fosselman without knowing more about his politics and where he fits in the County political spectrum. Some consider him a protege of Sen. Madaleno, but the only evidence we've seen of this is his opposition to the Purple Line. Does he have backers on the Council? Not that I have heard, but let's wait and see.
Larry Giammo, Rockville
Giammo is the former Mayor of Rockville. We speculated last December that he might be running against District 3 County Council Member Phil Andrews. Since that time, we have heard very little about him. Giammo has been a longtime Independent who, along with Fosselman, supported O’Malley against Duncan. Mayors of Rockville tend to be big players in county politics, but Giammo’s silence indicates he may not be in the 2010 mix.
Spy: Never seemed content to just be Mayor of Rockville - I would guess he has a campaign in his future but he has been quiet since he left office; was never quiet in his disagreements with Duncan - could he be thinking about a county Exec run some time down the line? I don't see him anywhere - so if he is a candidate - he must be doing it in stealth mode.
Spy: Wasn’t Larry Giammo a Republican until recently? I have to believe that the days of party-switching opportunists easily winning seats might be over -- but only so long as his opponents are willing to raise that fact in a primary. If so, it would be a deal-breaker for many Democratic primary voters. The one thing that might save him from this is that it is unclear if people will use resources to call out a challenger on something like this. In any case, I thought Giammo was considering challenging Phil Andrews. If so, he might be more at home in that race, since Andrews seems to be imitating Republicans lately with his anti-collective bargaining, anti-early voting, fiscal conservative positions.
Spy: He is almost invisible outside of Rockville, where I think he is running his business.
Spy: Has support and necessary $ if he wants to raise it. I don’t think the desire is there but I for one will certainly urge him to jump in now that I know his name is in circulation.
Spy: Larry has to decide whether or not he is a Democrat. If he is not, he can’t get elected to the Montgomery County Council in 2010. If he re-registers as one, he needs to explain why he was registered Independent for so long. This will not be a trivial problem in a Democratic Primary. He has a strong base in Rockville and would be very competitive for the Gazette and Post endorsements.
More tomorrow!
Tuesday, December 09, 2008
Is Larry Giammo Going to Run Against Phil Andrews? (Updated)
Recent events indicate that former Rockville Mayor Larry Giammo is considering a run for County Council against District 3 Council Member Phil Andrews. Giammo is denying it, but there are reasons to believe the rumors have some credibility.
Larry Giammo served three terms as Mayor of Rockville from 2001 through 2007. His tenure is best known for the creation of the new Rockville Town Center and the adoption of a tough Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance intended to slow growth. Giammo, along with Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman, was one of the few politicians in Montgomery County to endorse Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley over County Executive Doug Duncan in the 2006 Gubernatorial Primary.
One of my sources describes Giammo’s last term (2005-2007) in this way:His third and final term was marred by interpersonal problems. He decided to run for re-election because Town Square was not yet complete, but it seemed his heart was not in the job. He was absent from council meetings, and did not restrain his temper with certain council members – this was remarked upon and it got in the way of his effectiveness.
Giammo entered the private sector after he left office. But in the last two months, he has resumed his political visibility. Our sources report that he began attending public meetings again, including those related to the controversial Bealls Grant II affordable housing project. On October 14, Giammo updated his personal website which now reads much like a campaign site. On December 2, Giammo authored a guest blog on Bealls Grant II, his first ever on Rockville Central, which drew an immediate response from current Mayor Susan Hoffmann.
It seemed clear during that last term that he did not enjoy being an elected official very much. The open question is whether that was a blip, or whether that was the true colors emerging.
But none of this compares to Giammo’s stinging letter to the Gazette opposing County Council Member Phil Andrews’ plan to replace Ike Leggett’s proposed ambulance fee with speed camera revenues. In the letter, Giammo says, “Andrews’ proposal does not appear to conform to state law. It's time for Andrews and his colleagues to get serious about focusing on finding truly meaningful ways to address the county's pending budget crisis.” This letter produced immediate emails flying around the county’s political class.
There is now considerable speculation that Giammo would like to return to public life, although not to the Rockville City government. One informant reports that Giammo briefly considered running for County Executive in 2006, but was deterred by the presence of both Steve Silverman and Ike Leggett in the race. Another source says, “Giammo doesn’t like Phil. That’s not news.” Does all of this information point to a run against Andrews for County Council?
There is no question that the county’s public employee unions detest Phil Andrews. Indeed, some of their comments about him are literally unprintable. He has gone from being the champion of the county’s living wage law in 2002 to the loudest critic of the public unions’ contracts, which he repeatedly labels as “unsustainable.” “He used to be with us, but something changed,” says one source close to the labor movement. “I don’t know what happened, but now he’s against us on everything.” Andrews’ most recent opposition to labor’s priorities includes his advocacy for a two-point cost of living reduction in public union contracts last spring and his vote against the county’s new prevailing wage law. There is no question that if labor found a credible opponent, they would do everything in their power to remove Phil Andrews.
Could Giammo be such an opponent? One of our informants says, “He has strong name ID and support in the city, but it’s unclear how far that goes beyond. He is not a natural politician, so some of the networking and collaboration does not seem to come second-nature. So it is not clear what lasting alliances he has made on the county level.” Another spy says, “We'll have to keep an eye out. But he should be warned: nobody is a more aggressive door-knocker than Phil.”
The business community will also be a factor. Andrews, a longtime ICC opponent, claimed in 2006 that he was “the number one target of development interests in this year’s election.” Andrews refuses all developer and PAC contributions, making him one of the more underfunded County Council candidates. But some in the business community appreciate Andrews’ fiscal conservatism and may not see the growth-restricting Giammo as any better on development.
Andrews holds three advantages over Giammo: a three-term incumbency, the visibility coming from his upcoming term as County Council President and the fact that the City of Rockville only accounts for part of District 3. For his part, Giammo told me, “I have no plans to run for anything.” My spies label this a non-denial denial and point out that two years is a long time in politics. One thing is sure: if Larry Giammo does run against Phil Andrews, it will be one hell of a race.
Update: A couple of my sources say that Giammo is more likely to run for County Executive than County Council. That scenario will probably materialize only if Ike Leggett appears vulnerable in 2010. And if Leggett is vulnerable, others will run against him (like Mike Knapp).
Update 2: Another one of our omni-present spies reports the following:Larry is an interesting animal who does not fit the mold for the normal paths into partisan county office. He is a bit mavericky.
Update 3: Here are two more tidbits. First, we hear that Giammo changed his registration from Republican to unaffiliated in March 2000. Everyone I talk to believes that Giammo must register as a Democrat to be competitive for any county or state office. Second, Giammo has only made one political contribution: a $500 donation to future County Council Member Valerie Ervin on 7/25/06. Ms. Ervin is a long-time labor movement veteran and a close ally of the county's unions. Why would a sitting Rockville Mayor contribute to a District Council Member candidate from Silver Spring?
As a municipal official, Larry was very active on state legislative issues, so I would not be surprised if his true aim were a seat in the statehouse. Notice that he mentioned Phil's proposal was against STATE law. Jennie Forehand's seat?
One of Larry's challenges is that he is not affiliated with a political party. His mom is a Republican and he flirted with Ehrlich at one point (before flirting with O'Malley). His voting record shows that he voted in primaries up through 2002, so it would be interesting to find out whether he was a registered Republican before then.
Maybe he will skip the 2010 primary and run as an Independent in the general election?
Update 4: This exchange with Rockville Mayor Susan Hoffmann is only furthering the speculation.
