How would a 2010 matchup between former Governor Bob Ehrlich and current Governor Martin O’Malley play out? Our prediction is that it will look like the 2002 and 2006 races with small changes determining the outcome.
The Democratic recipe for winning a statewide race is to maximize Democratic turnout, especially in their Big Three strongholds (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties), while keeping net losses in the rest of the state to a minimum. The Republican recipe for success is to maximize GOP turnout, get a decisive edge among independents and flip enough moderate and conservative Democrats to overwhelm their opponents’ Big Three. Here’s how those strategies played out for Bob Ehrlich in 2002 and 2006.
Ehrlich won the 2002 election by 66,170 votes and lost the 2006 election by 116,815 votes, a swing of 182,985. What accounts for that swing? The Democrats piled up margins of 253,862 votes for Townsend and 279,769 votes O’Malley over Ehrlich in their Big Three, a net change of just 25,907 votes. So the Big Three did not change the outcome. The deciding jurisdictions were Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Harford Counties. Ehrlich won them by 160,247 votes over Townsend, but won them by just 61,783 votes over O’Malley. That net change of 98,464 votes was by itself enough to hand the election to O’Malley. The rest of the state contributed a net swing of 23,128 votes to the Democrats, a smaller contribution than the Big Three.
We believe that Ehrlich’s performance in Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Harford Counties will be somewhere between his 2002 and 2006 margins, probably closer to 2002 because of the poor state of the economy. That argues for a close election except for one thing: the increased Democratic registration advantage. Since the 2002 general election, the Democrats have added 126,739 registrants in Prince George’s County, 70,186 registrants in Montgomery County and 47,780 registrants in Baltimore City. The GOP has added just 73,479 registrants statewide. If just 40% of these new Big Three Democrats turn out to vote for O’Malley, that gives the Democrats an extra 100,000 votes – a bulwark against any modest improvement over 2006 by Ehrlich in the Baltimore suburbs.
Bob Ehrlich needs a historic turnout edge by the GOP, significant anti-O’Malley turnout by independents, an awful governing and campaign performance by the incumbent, a disappearance by newly registered Obama Democrats and lots of money to win. Of those factors, only the money is likely to happen. That means Martin O’Malley, even with all of his problems, is the favorite to defeat Ehrlich for a second time. Let’s be conservative and call it a mid-to-low single digits victory.
Friday, December 18, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Five
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Four
Bob Ehrlich became Governor in 2002 partly because of good Republican turnout, support from independent voters and a monetary advantage. But there were other reasons for his win.
Unpopular Incumbent
Parris Glendening, who was about to leave office due to term limits, was lucky to not be on the ballot in 2002 because Ehrlich would have creamed him. Glendening barely defeated Ellen Sauerbrey – a far more conservative Republican than Ehrlich – in a hotly contested election in 1994, had a mostly sour relationship with the press, engaged in a bitter feud with then-Comptroller William Donald Schaefer and dumped his wife to marry a much younger (and pregnant) staffer in his last year in office. A Potomac Inc. tracking poll chronicles Glendening’s free-falling approval rating during his second term, which ultimately bottomed out at 37% approve/48% disapprove in October 2002.
In that same poll, 51% of the respondents agreed with this statement: “Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would just continue the policies of the Glendening administration. It’s time for a change.” Thirty-eight percent disagreed. Glendening was clearly a drag on his Lieutenant Governor’s candidacy against Ehrlich.
Could it happen today?
Governor O’Malley is not as unpopular as Glendening. Here is the history of his approval rating in office from Gonzales.
Interestingly, O’Malley’s low point in March 2008 (37% approve/48% disapprove), which came after the tax-hiking special session, was identical to Glendening’s ratings in October 2002. But O’Malley has recovered since then even though the economy has headed south. Could O’Malley’s approval ratings fall again? Sure, but he is lacking one key component of Glendening’s unpopularity: personal failings. O’Malley has no problems resembling Glendening’s marital drama, his war with Schaefer or his iciness with the press. That will offer him some protection from the negative effects of a bad economy.
Weak Democratic Candidate
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was the weakest Democratic candidate for Governor since George P. Mahoney, a segregationist who lost to Spiro Agnew in 1966. She was born in Connecticut and grew up in Virginia. She moved to Annapolis in 1984 and lost a Congressional race to Helen Delich Bentley two years later by a whopping 18 points. Glendening picked her as his running mate in 1994 to help him raise money against Lieutenant Governor, and former Senate President, Melvin Steinberg in the primary.
Townsend had no base in the state and no successful solo campaign experience when she ran for Governor in 2002. Townsend’s worst mistake was picking Charles Larson, a retired white Admiral who had very recently been a Republican, as her running mate. That decision alienated African Americans and liberals and converted no Republicans or conservative Democrats. A Gonzales poll in October 2002 found that Ehrlich was supported by 25% of Democrats(!), a key factor in Townsend’s four-point defeat caused by her weakness and ineptitude. Glendening piled on after the election, calling Townsend’s effort “one of the worst-run campaigns in the country.”
Could it happen today?
Absolutely not. Even O’Malley’s enemies must concede that he is an able competitor who bears no resemblance to the hapless Townsend. Love him or hate him, he has an interesting duality that serves him well in politics. O’Malley presents a pleasant, charismatic and vigorous face to the public that conceals a shrewd ruthlessness focused on taking down opponents. That formula helped him prosper in the seething hothouse of Maryland politics: the City of Baltimore. O’Malley has won two City Council elections, two mayoral elections, one gubernatorial victory (over Ehrlich) and even served as Barbara Mikulski’s field director in her first U.S. Senate win in 1986.
Additionally, O’Malley is sure to do one thing with gusto that Townsend did ineffectively: go negative. Congressman Ehrlich ran as a fiscal conservative and a social moderate in 2002. The main part of his record that the Democrats attacked at that time was his pro-gun positions, which they unsuccessfully attempted to link to the D.C. sniper shootings. O’Malley has a gigantic treasure trove of opposition research on Ehrlich’s term as Governor bequeathed to him by menacing former Democratic Press Secretary David Paulson. And that stash has only swelled with the addition of last year’s State Police spying scandal, a debacle for which Ehrlich has been unapologetic. Ehrlich is, in turn, bound to go negative against O’Malley, guaranteeing that a rematch will be one of the muddiest races in Maryland’s history.
How would it play out? We’ll predict the outcome in Part Five.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Three
Bob Ehrlich became Governor in 2002 for a variety of factors. Let’s see if those factors are equally valid today to see if he can win again.
Republican Registration and Turnout
In 2002, Republicans accounted for 30.0% of registered voters in Maryland and had a turnout rate of 67.4%, a full 4.5 points better than the Democrats. They accounted for 32.7% of actual voters. A Gonzales poll taken a month before the election showed that they favored Ehrlich over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by a margin of 86-8%, or 78 points. Enthusiastic support and good turnout from his party was an essential ingredient in Ehrlich’s win.
Could it happen today?
Republicans account for just 26.6% of registered voters as of 10/31/09, a 3.4 point drop from 2002. If they are going to deliver for Ehrlich with the same impact that they had in 2002, they will have to launch a major registration drive or vastly increase their turnout margin over the Democrats.
In 2002, 1.74 Democrats voted in the general election for every Republican. If the Democrats turn out at their average rate for the last three gubernatorial general elections (61.8%) and the party registration percentages stay the same in 2010 as on 10/31/09, the GOP must have a turnout rate of 75.9% to keep pace with their 2002 ratio of 1 Republican voter for every 1.74 Democratic voters. Considering the fact that their turnout rate has varied between 62.6% and 67.4% in the last three gubernatorial elections, that is unlikely to happen.
The one 2002 fact that is likely to repeat is overwhelming Republican support for their nominee. The latest Gonzales poll showed that 16% of Republicans approved of Governor O’Malley while 66% disapproved, a 50-point negative gap. That gap will only grow if anti-O’Malley ads are aired next year.
Independent Registration and Turnout
In the 2002 general election, unaffiliated and other party registrants accounted for 13.9% of registered voters and 10.2% of actual voters. The Gonzales poll right before the election showed Ehrlich leading Townsend among independents by five points (39-34%), with 24% undecided. That same poll showed Ehrlich with a one-point edge among all voters. Since Ehrlich defeated Townsend by 3.9 points, we believe that independents broke for Ehrlich by a large margin, possibly by ten points or more.
Could it happen today?
Unaffiliated and other party registrants account for 16.6% of all registered voters today, a 2.7 point increase from 2002. But the GOP faces three challenges in turning them into Ehrlich voters in 2010. First, 41% of them live in Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, places where the Republican Party’s infrastructure is almost dead. Second, unaffiliated and other voters turned out at an average rate of 43.5% over the last three gubernatorial general elections, far below the rates of the GOP (64.3%) and the Democrats (61.8%). Third, the latest Gonzales poll showed that 41% of independents approved of Governor O’Malley’s performance and 39% disapproved. The GOP needs independents to turn sharply against O’Malley and come out to vote against him in huge numbers next year. That will likely happen only if 2010 sees a disastrous performance by the incumbent Governor.
Money
It’s ironic that the top fundraiser in Blue Maryland’s history is a Republican: Bob Ehrlich, of course. He outraised both of his Democratic rivals for Governor in 2002 and 2006 by a combined $6.1 million.
Could it happen today?
Maybe not. Governor O’Malley has been working the fundraising circuit hard, going as far as New York City and Miami Beach to search for money. And that’s not all: a recent O’Malley fundraiser in Potomac took in over $175,000. O’Malley had a campaign fund balance of $1,004,836.66 last January. He will have WAY more than that next month.
But Ehrlich does not need to outraise O’Malley. As a former Governor, Ehrlich’s name recognition is close to O’Malley’s. The last Gonzales poll showed that only 6% of Marylanders had not heard of Ehrlich while 2% had not heard of O’Malley. Ehrlich is confident that he can raise $10-12 million if he runs in 2010, a similar total to O’Malley’s 2006 take of $13.9 million. We agree with Ehrlich on this point: money will not be his problem. Rank-and-file Republicans want O’Malley gone yesterday. Many people in the business community detest O’Malley for his tax hikes (especially in the top income tax brackets) and his populist rhetoric. All of them will pay dearly for a real chance of dethroning the incumbent, and that will give Ehrlich all the resources he needs.
We’ll continue our analysis in Part Four.
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Two
Over the last six election cycles, Democrats have slightly grown their registration edge over Republicans. But turnout paints a more complicated story.
Here are voter registrations by party on general election day from 1998 through 2008, plus on 10/31/09.
The Democrats fell from 57.6% of the state’s registered voters in 1998 to 55.1% in 2006, and then recovered to 56.9% on 10/31/09. The GOP has fallen from 30.0% in 2002 to 26.6% on 10/31/09. It is noteworthy that the Democrat-Republican gap has increased over President Obama’s first ten months in office. Unaffiliated/other registrants have grown steadily from 12.1% of registered voters in 1998 to 16.6% on 10/31/09.
Here are the turnout rates in each of the last six general elections. 
The GOP has had a higher turnout rate than the Democrats in every year except 1998 and 2008. Their biggest edge in turnout came in 2002, when 67.4% of Republicans voted against 62.9% of Democrats – a margin of 4.5 points. In 2006, the GOP had a 3.4 point advantage.
But the most interesting aspect of the above chart is the turnout behavior of unaffiliated/other voters. They have an average turnout rate of 66.4% during Presidential Election years, about 12-13 points below Democrats and Republicans. But they only have an average turnout rate of 43.5% during Gubernatorial Election years, about 20 points below the members of the two major parties. This is very important to Republican statewide candidates, who must have lots of votes from independents to win.
The above data combined with the county-specific registration information we posted in Part One illustrates that it is very, very difficult for a GOP candidate to win a statewide office in Maryland. Governor O’Malley’s campaign manager and Democratic strategists would have us believe that a Republican victory is nearly impossible. But that opinion is belied by a simple fact: Republican Congressman Bob Ehrlich did win a Governor’s race, beating Lieutenant Governor Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by 3.9 percentage points in 2002. If Ehrlich won once, could he win again eight years later?
Our approach to answering that question is to examine the reasons for Ehrlich’s 2002 victory and assess their likelihood of repeating in 2010. We’ll begin in Part Three.
Monday, December 14, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part One
All of the questions over whether former Republican Governor Bob Ehrlich will seek a rematch with the man who beat him, current Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley, ultimately boil down to one calculation: can Ehrlich win? MPW contributor Marc Korman and O’Malley campaign manager Tom Russell say no. Many GOP loyalists hope the answer is yes. Since Ehrlich may well run, this is not an academic question. It’s time to dive into the numbers and see if the ex-Governor can return to Annapolis.
Any examination of a statewide race must start with voter registration counts. Here are the voter registrations by county as of 10/31/09.
Overall, the Democrats have an absolute majority (at 56.9%) and outnumber Republicans by better than two-to-one. But the total numbers mask the geographic domination of the Democrats and the regional isolation of the GOP.
The Democrats have more than 50% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Baltimore City and Baltimore, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Montgomery, Prince George’s and Somerset Counties. Those jurisdictions account for 60% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 50% of registered voters in two jurisdictions: Carroll and Garrett Counties, which account for just 4% of the state’s registered voters.
Let’s lower the threshold to 40%. The Democrats have more than 40% of registered voters in 18 jurisdictions (all except Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Queen Anne’s and Washington Counties) that account for 88% of the state’s registered voters. The Republicans have more than 40% of registered voters in eight jurisdictions: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, Harford, Queen Anne’s, Talbot and Washington Counties, which account for just 17% of the state’s registered voters.
Registration does not always determine voting behavior. Maryland is a state in which Democrats can and do vote for Republicans, the most successful of whom has unquestionably been Bob Ehrlich. But all of the above means that the Democrats have a far broader reach across the state than does the GOP. Western Maryland is the only region in which the Democrats struggle to compete. The Republicans are non-competitive in three of the state’s four biggest jurisdictions (Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties) and lag Democrats in Anne Arundel and Howard Counties, fast-growing Charles County and even some parts of the Eastern Shore. All of this is a hurdle that any statewide GOP candidate would have to overcome.
We’ll look at historic registrations and turnout in Part Two.
