What To Watch for in 2009

By Marc Korman.

With many end of the year articles and blogs focusing on the best of, most influential, and so on of 2008, I thought it might be more interesting to discuss a few things to watch for in 2009 in local politics.

1. Who Is Raising Money?

The primary is not until September of 2010, but retiring lawmakers will likely have made their intentions clear before then by having failed to raise the money needed to run for reelection. Some early potential retirements in Montgomery County include Senator Jennie Forehand (D-17), Delegate Sheila Hixson (D-20), and Delegate Hank Heller (D-19). On the County Council, Don Praisner has said he will not run for reelection and rumor is that Valerie Ervin will run for an at-large seat, leaving her district seat open.

Serious contenders for open seats or challenges may also start raising money and attending more community events. Some non-incumbents who are in the rumor mill for a run include Ryan Spiegel (D-17), Dana Beyer (D-18), Reggie Oldak (D-16), Hugh Bailey (D-39), and many more.

Expect both these lists to grow longer during 2009.

2. What Are The Republicans Doing?

Democrats wiped out all local elected Republicans in 2006, but that does not mean the GOP will not be a serious force in 2010. How serious a partisan fight we have in Montgomery County in 2010 depends on a lot of factors, including the Democrats’ national performance. But another factor to watch for is the quality of Republican candidates running. 2009 is when the groundwork will be laid.

Rumor is that Robin Ficker might run for the state legislature in District 15 or challenge Mike Knapp for the County Council. Former Councilman Howie Denis could seek his old seat against Roger Berliner. These Republicans start with a local following and name identification. If these two are leading the Republican charge and positioning themselves in 2009, even if they are not closely aligned on many issues, expect a real Republican effort in 2010. What these potential candidates do in the next year, and what other Republicans emerge as contenders, will do a lot to determine if the 2010 cycle in Montgomery County is defined by an intra-party battle among Democrats, or a partisan standoff with Republicans.

3. Is the County Council Doing Anything?

There seems to be a growing concern that the County Council is spending too much time on issues of limited, but progressive, appeal and not enough time on the core issues facing the county such as the economy, the budget, and transportation. A lack of institutional knowledge and leadership is one cause. With Marilyn Praisner’s passing, only one Councilmember was elected prior to 2002. Major disagreements on fundamental issues is another reason. The current council is still divided on growth issues, transportation projects, and union contracts.

New Council President Phil Andrews will have the opportunity in 2009 to set an agenda and try to make strides on major issues. Whether those strides can be made without breaching the charter limit or raising other taxes, which no one seems to have an appetite for, will also define the Council’s political fortunes and reputations.

4. How Testy Are Those Board of Public Works Meetings?

Any discussion of Maryland politics makes reference to the strained relationship between Governor O’Malley and Comptroller Franchot. There has been speculation, here at MPW and elsewhere, that the Governor could find a primary challenger for the Comptroller or that the Comptroller could jump into the Gubernatorial primary. With the slots issue settled and serious challenges facing the state, perhaps the Governor and Comptroller will enter détente. Whether the Comptroller continues criticizing the legislature and Governor during the 2009 session, as he did during the Special Session and slots campaign, will help set the tone. How the Governor reacts to the Comptroller’s behavior will also indicate whether the two have found peace, or at least a political truce.

5. Is There Any Progress on Transportation?

The state has made massive cuts to transportation and the county’s problems have been well documented here at MPW. The next year may show if we are making any progress at all. Does the state begin moving forward with a preferred Purple Line alternative without lawsuits challenging its decision? Do our federal legislators provide more funding for BRAC in Bethesda? Do ICC opponents succeed in altering or even stopping the project? How does Maryland do in a public works stimulus? With traffic getting worse and our infrastructure decaying, these are important issues to watch in 2009.

I am sure my list is not complete, so if you think of more political issues to watch for in 2009 please say so in the comments.

And thanks for reading my posts and those of my fellow MPW contributors all year.