U.S. Senate Outlook Update

Democrats are now more clearly within striking distance of taking back the U.S. Senate than my last post on the Senate.

Democratic Seats
Democrats trail is none of the seats which they currently hold. New Jersey Sen. Menendez, a former congressman appointed to his seat, appear to have established a lead over his opponent, Assemblyman Tom Kean, Jr. after a rocky start to his campaign. In the second-most vulnerable Democratic race, Rep. Ben Cardin leads Lt. Gov. Michael Steele by an average of 5 points in the last five polls taken in Maryland.

Republican Seats
In contrast, Democrats now lead Republicans by an average of five points or more in four seats currently held by Republicans. In Montana, Bob Tester leads Sen. Conrad Burns by 7 points. In Rhode Island, Sheldon Whitehouse is 6 points ahead of Sen. Lincoln Chafee. Rep. Sherrod Brown has established a 9-point lead in Ohio. Rick Santorum, the senator we love to hate in Pennsylvania, is down by 11 points in his uphill battle for reelection against Treasurer Bob Casey.

That gets the Democrats to 49 seats but they need to win two more in order to have a 51-seat majority--Vice President Dick Cheney would break ties in an evenly divided Senate. Claire McCaskill clings to a one point lead over Sen. Bob Talent in Missouri. Harold Ford, Jr. remains tied with Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker in Tennessee. Sen. George Felix "Macaca" Allen leads Jim Webb by 5 points in Virginia. Jim Pedersen trails Sen. Jon Kyl by 9 points in Arizona.

Republicans continue to hold an advantage over Democrats in using microtargeting as the basis for their GOTV operation. However, Democrats have made major strides since 2004 in organizing their own voter lists and GOTV organizations. Republicans can no longer count on saving close races with superior organization, especially since every major survey shows Democrats are far more energized and likely to vote than Republicans.

The New Senate and Future Elections
A 50-50 or 51-49 Senate seems highly likely. Assuming conservatively that Democrats take four Republican seats, Democrats would walk away with 22, or two-thirds, of this year's 33 Senate seats--a devestating outcome in a year when the GOP had fewer seats to defend and hoped to gain seats. Republicans would remain vulnerable to more losses in 2008 and 2010 as they will be defending more seats than the Democrats in those cycles.

The balance of power in the new Senate could well be held by Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman. He appears to be confounding the predictions of liberal bloggers like the DailyKos and leads blogger-darling and Democratic nominee Ned Lamont by 11 points. Pressed by bloggers, Democratic senators have rallied around Lamont, which could make efforts to bring Lieberman back into the fold more difficult after the election.