Bush is Creating New Democrats

This fascinating graphic appeared in the New York Times today (see the article accompanying it as well). It probably doesn't show well here on blogger but click on it or the link to the Times to blow it up and take a closer look.

Politicians understandably focus on older voters because they go to the polls are far higher rates than young voters. However, young voters have a way of becoming older voters. Moreover, political scientists have long considered young voters among the most malleable in terms of partisanship. Like hardening cement, it gets harder to change the partisanship of voters as they age.

It is hard and fast rule of life and politics that old voters eventually die and are replaced by young voters. Differences between the partisanship of young voters and the voters they replace can gradually have profound effects on electoral outcomes. Popular presidents, like Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton, convert many of these of voters to their party. Unpopular presidents have the opposite effect.

President Bush is creating Democrats like they are going out of style. Indeed, the graphic shows that people who began voting during the Bush years are currently the most Democratic cohort alive: 52% identify as Democratic or lean Democratic compared to only 37% who identify Republican or lean Republican.

President Bush may not have much use for Democrats but new voters appear to have little use to him--and his party looks likely to pay for it in the decades to come.