Can anyone explain to me why a Republican National Committee video called "Building Our Future" could be composed entirely of retrospectives of Ronald Reagan, George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush? Why not talk about future leaders like Sarah Palin?
Sunday, November 16, 2008
RNC: Building Our Future
Saturday, November 15, 2008
The Progressive Summit
Progressive Maryland is convening an activist summit on 11/22/08 in Annapolis. Following is their press release.
Media Advisory for Saturday, November 22, 2008
From 9:00AM – 4:00PM
NEW DATE: The Progressive Maryland Education Fund Convenes Summit For Progressive Activists from All Across Maryland
With the Presidential Election Over, Hundreds of Progressive Activists Come Together To Focus On a Statewide Agenda For 2009
The Progressive Summit has been rescheduled for Saturday, Nov. 22, 9 a.m. to 4 pm. at the Annapolis Senior High School, 2700 Riva Road, Annapolis, MD 21401. Hundreds if not thousands of Maryland progressive activists are volunteering every weekend to work on this historic presidential election in neighboring states Virginia and Pennsylvania (and some full-time in Ohio and elsewhere). Understandably, the activists want to finally take a weekend off after the Nov. 4th election. As a result, our Steering Committee partners have asked the Progressive Md. Educ. Fund to postpone the Progressive Summit from Saturday Nov. 8th to Saturday Nov. 22. We agree that postponement is a great idea.
The Progressive Summit will feature leaders from the major progressive organizations in the labor, education, environmental, civil rights, health care, and criminal justice reform communities as they discuss the budget deficit, their respective 2009 agendas, and where common ground exists uniting us all.
The Progressive Summit Steering Committee Partners include the ACLU of Maryland, Advocates for Children & Youth, Center for American Progress, CASA of Maryland, Drug Policy Alliance, Environment Maryland, Equality Maryland, League of Conservation Voters of Maryland, Maryland Association of Non-Profit Organizations, Maryland Budget & Tax Institute, Maryland Citizens' Health Initiative, Maryland CASE, Maryland State Teachers Association, Mid-Atlantic Laborers' Employers Cooperative & Education Trust, SEIU DC/MD State Council, UFCW Local 400 and more. To RSVP & more information: www.progressivemaryland.org.
Who: The Progressive Maryland Education Fund
What: The Progressive Summit
When: Saturday, November 22, 2008, 9:00 AM - 4:00PM
Where: Annapolis Senior High School, 2700 Riva Road, Annapolis
Contact: Rion Dennis, 301-437-9006
Friday, November 14, 2008
Rich Madaleno Becomes Chairman of the MoCo Senate Delegation
Senator Rich Madaleno sent out this notice minutes ago. Note his comments on teacher pensions and transportation funding.
*****
I am pleased to report that I was elected chair of the Montgomery County Senate Delegation last night. Sen. Jamie Raskin of District 20 was elected Vice Chair. The chair runs the delegation’s weekly meetings and serves as a conduit for information concerning issues impacting the county in the State Senate.
We both received the unanimous support of our colleagues. We look forward to working with the leadership of our House delegation, Del. Brian Feldman and Del. Susan Lee.
As a result of the global economic downturn, this will be a challenging year for the General Assembly. I pledge to work diligently to protect the county’s interests during these tough financial times. I also hope to build consensus with our colleagues from across the state on solutions to our current problems.
Topping the list of priorities this year will be opposing any permanent structural changes to state aid formulas. Montgomery County’s Delegation is united in working to stop any effort to shift retirement costs for our teachers and librarians back to the county. For more than 80 years, the state has managed and funded the trust fund which pays for the pension benefits of teachers and librarians. We cannot let our short term financial needs jeopardize a system that has served the taxpayers and teachers of our state so well for so long.
We will also work to ensure that the county’s school construction allocation is not less than the $46 million we received in the current fiscal year. Our school system has an aggressive plan to build and modernize our school buildings. This level of state funding helps support good construction jobs in our struggling economy and ensures our students have the environment they need to succeed.
Working with our Prince George’s County colleagues, we plan to implement all of the statutory changes needed to secure the federal government’s pledge of $1.5 billion in improvements to the Metro system. Our congressional delegation succeeded in obtaining federal funds to renovate and repair the Metro system. Now, Maryland, Virginia, and DC must amend our regional compact to meet our new obligation. The laws of all three jurisdictions must be amended exactly the same, down to each comma, to satisfy new federal requirements. We will work to see that these changes are made and that the state meets its funding goals.
Finally, I plan to lead the delegation in a discussion concerning the future of transportation funding in our state and region. The last year has highlighted the growing volatility in the revenue sources that support the transportation trust fund. While we may not agree on every project, we need to explore new ways to provide financial stability to the trust fund and to ensure that we have the resources to meet our significant transportation infrastructure needs.
Sen. Raskin and I look forward to working with our talented colleagues in the Maryland State Senate to make 2009 a year of progressive change for our county and state.
Thank you,
Rich Madaleno
MPW on the Radio
I was on Rockville Central Radio today talking about slots, the Ficker referendum, the state budget and Tom Perez's work for the Obama campaign. Come on, I know you are bored at work! You will have more fun listening in here at the 15:30 mark.
Gimme Some of That Gold-Dust!
It seems that some of our local politicians are rolling around in the gold-dust from our President-Elect. Who's rolling around the most? For our answer, we return to Facebook! Check out the profile pictures currently used by the individuals below. On Facebook, a profile picture appears prominently on each participant's home page and accompanies their name on all status reports and comments.
Delegate Kirill Reznik (D-39)
Isn’t it nice that Delegate Reznik watches TV like the rest of us? Who knew?
Delegate Tom Hucker (D-20)
This picture was taken after Delegate Hucker campaigned in Pennsylvania for the Senator. I sure see the family resemblance here! Thanks for pointing this out, Tom!
Former County Council Candidate Hans Riemer
Hans has actually used TWO profile pictures featuring his former boss. Hans worked for the Senator for nearly a year.
"Excuse me, Senator, may I have a word with you?"
"Don't worry, Hans. I'll get Valerie to run at-large so you can have that District 5 seat!"
Delegate Ali, as the reigning Master of Facebook, do you have any comment?
Thursday, November 13, 2008
Strange Conclusions From The Election
By Marc Korman.
Since Tuesday’s election, pundits and politicians have drawn some strange conclusions from the results.
1. Franchot Lost, O’Malley Won
A front page article in the Gazette of Business and Politics says that the anti-slots Comptroller “might have to reconsider” any plans he had to challenge O’Malley in the Gubernatorial primary in two years because slots passed successfully. Like the rest of us, Franchot has probably known for months that slots was going to pass based on public polling. So I doubt the election results did much to change his current thinking on running for Governor.
If Franchot is seriously considering a primary challenge, how the ballot question did statewide, in Montgomery County, or even among Democrats is irrelevant. What matters is how the ballot question did among Democrats who vote in the gubernatorial primary. In 2006, 524,671 Democrats voted in the Gubernatorial primary. O’Malley ran unopposed, so a competitive primary could have a higher turnout. But it is those voters that matter, not the millions who showed up last Tuesday. Thanks to his slots opposition, Franchot has gotten a lot of attention from these base Democratic voters that could serve him well if he is serious about challenging O’Malley.
2. This is a Center Right Nation
Newsweek was actually making this argument even before the election. The thought was echoed by House Minority Leader John Boehner in a letter to his colleagues begging to keep his leadership post. In the case of Boehner and other Republicans, I imagine they are just trying to comfort themselves with this thought.
If I had to try and characterize the country, I would characterize it as center with left and right leanings depending on the time and the issue. Polling has generally shown a majority favors abortion (left), a majority favors prayer in public schools (right), a majority opposes the war in Iraq (left), and a majority favored going to war with Iraq four years ago (right). A better characterization might be that we are a schizophrenic nation, but I will stick with the characterization that we are a center nation with leanings one way or the other depending on the issue.
3. Montgomery County Has Experienced A Tax Revolt
Adam Pagnucco made this argument right here at MPW. He has good company at the Washington Post editorial board. I am confident that Montgomery County residents, like just about everyone, do not enjoy taxes. But we did not have a tax revolt, we had a political failure. Opposition to the Ficker Amendment was late in forming and few people, even opponents, understood the amendment. There was almost no effort to communicate with and educate the public on the issue. Had there been even a modest effort against the amendment, Ficker would have failed as in previous years.
That does not mean legislators should feel free to act irresponsibly with our tax dollars. But it does mean that in two years I predict the charter will be amended again to undue the Ficker law. Placing the first bet on the 2010 election, I say the “Repeal Ficker Act” will pass 55% to 45%. It will not be easy, but the unions, the politicians, and the activists will all work together to make it happen.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
On Political Pulse
Adam Pagnucco, a blogger for Maryland Politics Watch Blog, will be on the "Political Pulse" TV Show on Thursday, November 13th, at 9 p.m. and Tuesday, November 18th at 9:30 p.m. to discuss the Blog and also issues arising from the November 4th Election, such as those relating to the slots vote, the vote on "Ficker Amendment," and whether Comptroller Peter Franchot might be challenged in the 2010 Democratic Primary.
Political Pulse is on Channel 16 TV in Montgomery County, Maryland.
Obama’s 78%
By Marc Korman.
Before the election, I wrote a post on Barack Obama and the Jewish vote. Happily, the polling understated his support in the Jewish community. President-elect Obama drew 78% of the Jewish vote. That is an increase over John Kerry’s share in 2004 and just 1% less than Al Gore in 2000, who had a Jewish running mate. I suppose we have Sarah Silverman to thank.
Here is a list of the Democratic ticket’s percentage of the Jewish vote going all the way back to 1916:
Jewish Vote By Year:
Wilson-55%
Cox-19% (The Republican candidate received 43%, the Socialist candidate received 38%)
Davis-51%
Smith-72%
Roosevelt-82%
Roosevelt-85%
Roosevelt-90%
Roosevelt-90%
Truman-75%
Stevenson-64%
Stevenson-60%
Kennedy-82%
Johnson-90%
Humphrey-81%
McGovern-65%
Carter-71%
Carter-45% (The Republican received 39%, an Independent candidate received 14%)
Mondale-67%
Dukakis-64%
Clinton-80%
Clinton-78%
Gore-79%
Kerry-76%
Obama-78%
Election 2008 by Legislative District
Straight from the Board of Elections, here are the votes for President, the slots referendum and the Ficker Amendment by legislative district. We also report how each state legislator voted on the slots referendum during the 2007 special session.
District 14
President
Obama 35,107 (64.7%)
McCain 18,531 (34.1%)
Slots
For 29,199 (56.2%)
Against 22,754 (43.8%)
Ficker
For 25,812 (53.3%)
Against 22,591 (46.7%)
Senator Rona Kramer and Delegate Anne Kaiser voted for the slots referendum. Delegate Herman Taylor voted against. Delegate Karen Montgomery was excused from the vote.
District 15
President
Obama 36,829 (64.5%)
McCain 19,486 (34.1%)
Slots
For 30,534 (55.8%)
Against 24,153 (44.2%)
Ficker
For 28,587 (55.9%)
Against 22,545 (44.1%)
The entire District 15 Delegation voted for the slots referendum. This district had the lowest vote for Obama and the highest vote for Ficker.
District 16
President
Obama 38,106 (73.7%)
McCain 12,893 (24.9%)
Slots
For 22,393 (44.8%)
Against 27,586 (55.2%)
Ficker
For 20,697 (45.2%)
Against 25,083 (54.8%)
Senator Brian Frosh voted against the referendum. Delegates Bill Bronrott, Susan Lee and Bill Frick voted for it. This district had the lowest vote for slots.
District 17
President
Obama 32,252 (70.9%)
McCain 12,552 (27.8%)
Slots
For 23,397 (53.7%)
Against 20,190 (46.3%)
Ficker
For 20,221 (50.1%)
Against 20,126 (49.9%)
Senator Jennie Forehand and Delegates Kumar Barve and Jim Gilchrist voted for the referendum. Delegate Luiz Simmons voted against.
District 18
President
Obama 34,380 (76.0%)
McCain 10,187 (22.5%)
Slots
For 21,049 (48.5%)
Against 22,318 (51.5%)
Ficker
For 18,442 (45.8%)
Against 21,785 (54.2%)
Senator Rich Madaleno and Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez voted for the referendum. Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher voted against. Delegate Al Carr was not in office during the special session.
District 19
President
Obama 32,409 (68.1%)
McCain 14,472 (30.4%)
Slots
For 24,888 (55.1%)
Against 20,320 (45.0%)
Ficker
For 21,742 (51.9%)
Against 20,147 (48.1%)
Senator Mike Lenett and Delegates Henry Heller and Roger Manno voted for the referendum. Delegate Ben Kramer voted against.
District 20
President
Obama 32,888 (84.6%)
McCain 5,460 (14.0%)
Slots
For 16,727 (45.8%)
Against 19,813 (54.2%)
Ficker
For 14,389 (42.1%)
Against 19,782 (57.9%)
Senator Jamie Raskin and Delegate Heather Mizeur voted against the slots referendum. Delegates Sheila Hixson and Tom Hucker voted for it. This district had the highest vote for Obama and the lowest vote for Ficker.
District 39
President
Obama 29,872 (70.5%)
McCain 11,799 (27.9%)
Slots
For 23,203 (57.4%)
Against 17,213 (42.6%)
Ficker
For 20,326 (53.7%)
Against 17,544 (46.3%)
Senator Nancy King and Delegate Kirill Reznik voted for the slots referendum. Delegates Charles Barkely and Saqib Ali voted against. This district had the highest vote for slots.
Generally speaking, districts in the inner suburbs voted more liberally than those far from the Beltway.
Which politicians were most out of step with their districts? In District 39, slots passed by 14.8% but Delegates Barkley and Ali voted against the referendum. In District 14, slots passed by 12.4% but Delegate Taylor voted against the referendum. In District 16, slots failed by 10.4% but Delegates Bronrott, Lee and Frick voted for the referendum. And in District 19, slots passed by 10.1% but Delegate Kramer voted against the referendum.
In the future, we will calculate votes by County Council district and locality for the SERIOUS junkies out there!
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Who is MoCo's Smartest Pundit?
Last week, MPW held a contest between some of MoCo's most-addicted political junkies to pick Presidential, Senate and Maryland races. So who won?
The answer: we are not yet declaring a winner. While all of the Presidential states are in and the Maryland races are decided (with Ficker almost certainly winning), three Senate races are still outstanding. The Minnesota contest is headed to a full recount. Absentee and early ballots are still being counted in Alaska, though Fivethirtyeight.com believes Begich will probably defeat Stevens. And the Georgia race is headed for a run-off on December 2. So it's just too early to pick a winner.
That is not stopping some of our participants from pressuring me to label them "The Smartest Pundit in MoCo." One of them emailed me, "Are we going to recognize how awesome my picks were?" When I told this person that I had not yet decided who won, the individual wrote back, "It's totally me!" Another person wanted to know whether I would be posting an interim scorecard. When I said I would do only one post declaring a winner, this individual replied, "I’ll be on pins and needles until then!" Who knew that these gibbering addicts were so competitive?
So here is what will happen. After the Alaska and Minnesota races are decided, I will post one tally of the results by participant. If the Georgia run-off changes the outcome, I will do another post after it concludes. (David Lublin and Jamie Raskin were the only two prognosticators who picked Martin to beat Chambliss.) We are just going to have to wait a bit.
So if you are one of those contestants, don't be stupid enough to email me asking, "When are you declaring me the Smartest Pundit in MoCo?" If you do that, I will instead write a post declaring you "The Biggest Narcissist in MoCo!"
MoCo School Unions Agree to Reopen Contracts
Below is the text of a press release from MCEA, SEIU Local 500 and the Montgomery County Association of Administrative and Supervisory Personnel (MCAASP), the three unions that represent employees in the public schools.
JOINT UNION BULLETIN #5
Unions Agree to Renegotiations
November 10, 2008
The leadership of the three school employee unions today announced that their executive boards have agreed to re-open negotiations over their collective bargaining agreements for the 2009-2010 fiscal year.
Earlier today, representatives of MCEA, SEIU Local 500 and MCAASP met again with the County Executive's staff to review the state of the county's economy. The most recent data affirms what earlier numbers suggested: that there is a serious slowdown underway in the economy that is going to significantly impact county revenues in next year's budget.
Contract talks are expected to begin soon. All three organizations have expressed a desire to reach agreement on new terms as quickly as possible. The three unions will be negotiating as a joint team.
Without mutual agreement on new terms, the Board of Education is legally obligated to include the previously negotiated contracts in their budget proposal to the county government.
The unions are also working with the administration on the overall MCPS budget plan for next year. We believe that meaningful additional savings can be found through streamlining operations in the central office and reductions in non-school based expenditures.
We will continue to keep our members informed as the process moves forward.
Maryland Foreclosures in Perspective
Realtytrac has perhaps the best foreclosure information in the U.S. Today, we tap into its hulking database to put Maryland’s foreclosure crisis in perspective.
One of Realtytrac’s many functions is its ability to track foreclosures by county. The map above shows foreclosure rates by Maryland county (measured by total housing units per foreclosure) in September 2008. Here’s how Maryland’s counties stack up:
Prince George’s: 1 in 338
Frederick: 1 in 696
Charles: 1 in 704
Washington: 1 in 1,106
Baltimore City: 1 in 1,179
Calvert: 1 in 1,234
Anne Arundel: 1 in 1,267
Howard: 1 in 1,447
Montgomery: 1 in 1,467
Carroll: 1 in 1,526
Kent: 1 in 1,737
Queen Anne’s: 1 in 1,916
Baltimore County: 1 in 2,037
Harford: 1 in 2,150
Caroline: 1 in 2,229
Allegany: 1 in 3,312
Dorchester: 1 in 4,033
Wicomico: 1 in 4,377
Cecil: 1 in 4,967
Somerset: 1 in 5,396
Garrett: 1 in 6,190
St. Mary’s: 1 in 10,035
Talbot: 1 in 19,247
Worcester: 1 in 53,372
Above is a close-up view of one of the most intense foreclosure spots in the state: Montgomery Village. This map shows 206 foreclosed properties in about nine square miles.
Northern Virginia has been hit much harder than Maryland. Here are foreclosure rates for those jurisdictions:
Manassas City: 1 in 68
Prince William County: 1 in 87
Fairfax City: 1 in 111
Culpeper County: 1 in 189
Stafford County: 1 in 195
Loudoun County: 1 in 200
Warren County: 1 in 265
Fairfax County: 1 in 271
Orange County: 1 in 272
Spotsylvania County: 1 in 277
Frederick County: 1 in 292
Winchester City: 1 in 348
Fauquier County: 1 in 370
Alexandria City: 1 in 944
Arlington County: 1 in 1,142
Clarke County: 1 in 1,237
Nationwide, the worst foreclosure rates are in Nevada, California, Arizona, Florida and Colorado, in that order. Here are the hardest-hit counties (or independent cities) in the U.S.
Merced County, CA: 1 in 60
Clark County, NV: 1 in 65
Manassas City, VA: 1 in 68
Osceola County, FL: 1 in 68
San Benito County, CA: 1 in 69
Lee County, FL: 1 in 71
Madera County, CA: 1 in 76
Prince William County, VA: 1 in 87
San Joaquin County, CA: 1 in 88
Riverside County, CA: 1 in 90
Stanislaus County, CA: 1 in 92
I guess you can see this in one of two ways. An optimist would say that our problems are not as bad as some other places around the country. A pessimist would say that our problems could get a lot worse!
Monday, November 10, 2008
No Matter How Paranoid You Are, You Can Never be Paranoid Enough
A couple weeks ago, a local politician called me about ten minutes after I mentioned the person’s name in a blog post. The conversation went something like this.Politician X: Hello Adam, this is Politician X.
Readers, Google Alert is a politician’s best friend. It is a service that emails you whenever a search term you choose is mentioned on a media site or blog. Growing numbers of politicians are entering their own names and getting alerts whenever they are mentioned on these sites. The emails can come pretty quickly, sometimes in ten minutes or less.
Adam: What can I do for you, Politician X?
Politician X: I think you misinterpreted one of my positions in your blog post.
[Discussion about blog post ensues.]
Adam: Look, I don’t want you to get the impression that I am always bashing you on this blog. I actually agree with you on a lot of things.
Politician X: Like what?
Adam: Well, last winter, I argued on behalf of your position on Issue Y.
Politician X: Really?
Adam: And a few months ago, I agreed with you on Issue Z. Didn’t you read that?
Politician X: No, I’m not a regular reader of the blog.
Adam: Then how did you know I wrote about you ten minutes ago?
Politician X: Errr… um…
Adam: You have Google Alert, don’t you?
So imagine being tethered to your Crackberry and having it go off any time some rogue blogger mentions your name. That is the lifestyle some of our politicians are now choosing to lead. Is it narcissism? Is it paranoia? Is it healthy for family life or mental stability? Why aren’t their significant others putting a stop to this?
This is yet another reason not to run for office.
Update: As usual, Delegate Saqib Ali is ahead of the curve. Delegate Ali actually encourages his supporters to sign up for Google Alert and enter his name so that they can stay abreast of the latest news reports on him. Perhaps this is one reason why we always get big traffic boosts whenever we mention his Facebook page.
Frosh Raising Money for Muse
We don’t normally quote fundraiser announcements here, but this one is bound to raise some eyebrows in the GLBT community.Governor Martin O’Malley
So what’s the big deal? Political muckety-mucks always raise money for other muck-mucks. But in the eyes of the GLBT community, Senator Muse (D-26) is no ordinary muck.
Lt. Governor Anthony Brown
Senate President Thomas. V. “Mike” Miller, Jr.
House Speaker Michael E. Busch
Senator Brian Frosh, Judicial Proceedings Committee Chair
Prince George’s County Executive Jack B. Johnson
Prince George’s County Council Chair Samuel H. Dean
Invite you to a breakfast honoring
Senator C. Anthony Muse
Wednesday, November 19th
7:30am-9:00am at
The Country Club at Woodmore
12320 Pleasant Prospect Road
Mitchellville, MD 20721
Sponsors: $1,000, Hosts: $500, Guests: $250
Checks should be made payable to:
Friends of C. Anthony Muse
1509 Light Street
Baltimore, MD 21230
For more information or to RSVP please contact
410-727-0501 or stephaniemellinger@rcn.com
By authority of Friends of C. Anthony Muse
Sharon Brandon, Treasurer
Senator Muse is a swing vote on GLBT issues in the Senate’s Judiciary Proceedings Committee. But he mostly swings against them. In the 2007 session, Senator Muse helped kill a bill banning discrimination against transgendered people in committee despite promising to support it. Equality Maryland Executive Director Dan Furmansky told the Blade, “We had the vote count on the floor of the House and the floor of the Senate... We had the votes.” In 2008, Senator Muse refused to support marriage equality in committee, causing it to die without a floor vote. At the time, he told a Baltimore radio station, “Unequivocally, I stand for Christian marriage and have no intentions of tampering with that at all.”
Senator Muse is not the only Democrat who is uncomfortable with the notion of granting full civil rights to gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered people, but his committee position gives him a unique opportunity to block these initiatives. And who is the Chairman of the Judicial Proceedings Committee? None other than Senator Brian Frosh (D-16), who is listed prominently as a co-sponsor of Senator Muse’s fundraiser.
Senator Frosh is considered one of the legislature’s most prominent progressives, especially on environmental and civil rights issues. But he is also interested in succeeding Big Daddy as the next Senate President. To do that, he needs support from Prince George’s County Senators like C. Anthony Muse.
One old Annapolis hand virtually yawned when I pointed this out. This individual told me, “It is common practice for committee chairs to attend and support the fundraisers of their committee members. I have even seen the Republicans publicize their Democratic chairs for fundraisers. There is nothing out of the ordinary for Annapolis. Maybe it should be but it is common in our culture.”
And so this is business as usual. That’s fine for the Lords of Annapolis. But how does any of this help gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgendered people who are seeking their civil rights?
Update: Three different politicians have weighed in on this off-blog. None of them see a problem here. All say it would be very unusual for Senator Frosh, as Senator Muse's committee chair, to not co-sponsor the fundraiser. That shows how important protocol is in Annapolis.
Sunday, November 09, 2008
Van Hollen Continuing as DCCC Chair
The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza, a.k.a. "The Fix" reports:After bringing at least two dozen new Democrats to the House in Tuesday's elections, Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) has agreed to try to duplicate that achievement in 2010 as chair of the caucus's campaign arm. He also will take on an added role, coordinating policy decisions between the House and President-elect Barack Obama's administration.
Ficker's Lead Grows
Just as we predicted, Robin Ficker's anti-tax charter amendment is picking up votes as the absentee ballots are counted.
When the precinct count was finished, 170,216 votes supported the Ficker Amendment and 169,603 opposed it - a margin of 613. Domestic absentees supported Ficker by 18,214 to 14,673 - adding 3,541 votes to what is now a total margin of 4,154. While precinct voters supported the amendment by a 50.1-49.9% percentage, domestic absentees supported it by 55.4-44.6%.
Ficker is now certain to win.
Update from David: Adam's right but for the wrong reason. In his original post, he cited stats from past elections which showed that absentee voters trended more Republican than people who voted at the polls. That wasn't the case this year. Absentee voters cast 76% of their votes for Obama, compared to just 72% of Election Day voters. Van Hollen won 78% of the votes of absentees while he won 74% of the votes of Election Day voters. Interestingly, absentee voters were also more likely to vote yes on Question A related to early voting, though not very different from other voters on slots. In other words, absentee voters appear as or more liberal than voters at the polls on all issues except taxes.
Saturday, November 08, 2008
Friday, November 07, 2008
Advantage: Kratovil
In a sharp break with past experience, the Democrats have equaled Republican performance in turning out absentee voters in Congress District 1. Frank Kratovil now has a lead that will be very difficult for Andy Harris to overcome.
Yesterday, we discussed how Republicans dominated absentee ballots in District 1 back in 2006. In the nine Eastern Shore counties, Republicans cast 51.1% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 40.2%, a 10.9 point lead for the GOP. In the twelve counties that have at least part of their territory in District 1, Republicans cast 50.4% of absentee ballots and Democrats cast 41.4%, a 9 point GOP lead.
But that is not the case in 2008. Throughout District 1, Democrats applied for 43.5% of absentee ballots against 42.8% for Republicans – a 0.7 point advantage for the Democrats. In terms of absentee ballots actually received by this morning, 43.8% came from Democrats and 43.0% came from Republicans – a 0.8 point advantage for the Democrats.
The Baltimore Sun reports that absentee counts have begun in all but four counties – Harford, Cecil, Talbot and Worcester. So far, Kratovil’s 915-vote lead on election day has grown to 1,871 – a pickup of 956. In the eight counties in which counting has begun, Kratovil outpolled Harris by 96,227-90,222 – a 6,005 vote or 3.2 point margin. This makes Kratovil’s additional pickup among absentee ballots a little less surprising.
So what of the four counties that have yet to be counted? On election day, they voted for Harris by a 69,778-64,688 vote or 3.8 point margin. In terms of absentee applications, 6,213 came from Republicans, 5,998 came from Democrats and 1,966 came from others. In terms of absentee ballots already returned, 5,559 came from Republicans, 5,335 came from Democrats and 1,729 came from others. That means in these four counties, 44% of the total 12,623 returned absentee ballots came from Republicans. And in order to overcome Kratovil’s lead, Harris would need to win over 57% of these ballots or benefit from an unprecedented surge of late military ballots. Both of these events are extremely unlikely. Kratovil looks like a winner.
If Kratovil holds on, it will be by far the most humiliating defeat for the Maryland GOP in the 2008 General Election. Consider the fact that District 1 was explicitly designed by Annapolis Democrats to be a Republican district. It contains the right-leaning Eastern Shore plus many of the most conservative precincts in Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Harford Counties. Also, consider the fact that the GOP historically outperforms the Democrats on absentee ballots and has a history of doing so in this Congressional District.
If Free State Republicans are defeated in their district with their tactic of choice – the absentee ballot – they are truly facing their Waterloo.
Update: The Associated Press has called the race for Kratovil.
Sarah Palin Does Not Know Africa is a Continent
She also cannot name the countries that participate in NAFTA!
In the Shadow of Sugar Loaf
By Sharon Dooley.
The fiddlers were a-fiddlin’, the banjos were a-playin’ and the grapes were being stomped on a beautiful country day. The crowds were sippin’ and clappin’ and enjoying the fresh country air. Where in the world were these events happening: California wine country? Nope, it was right here at the upcounty Sugarloaf Mountain Vineyard along Comus Road in Montgomery County, which stands literally, in the shadow of our own Sugarloaf Mountain.
On this recent weekend, the vineyard held its annual grape stomp, wine tasting event and vintage wine sales. At the same event, in a special ceremony, Montgomery County’s Countryside Alliance awarded its’ annual Royce Hanson Award to Peg Coleman. Peg is a well-known author and educator, a preservationist and keeper of the countryside integrity, and a guardian of the special natural resources that are the mainstay of the upcounty agricultural reserve. She is a quiet farm oriented person who effectively spreads her messages about this special portion of Montgomery County. Her award was well deserved and cheerfully applauded by the hundreds of attendees, which also included some elected officials.
Royce Hanson, Planning Board Chair, presented the award – for which he had been the first recipient. He was noted to have been the “Father of the Agricultural Reserve” more than 25 years ago, when this area was first set aside, then marking about 93,000 acres of parkland and farmlands and several towns and villages. The original protected area encompassed about one-third of the entire land in Montgomery County. In his remarks he described how this section sets the county apart, even from aloft, as a spot where the prominence of lights in a continuous march down the East Coast is dimmed. He mentioned the importance of ensuring protections for this fragile area, still being threatened with development. He noted how the trees clean the air for all in the county. Sand Mounds and their misuse were also mentioned as a tool that could be used to further fracture the separate peace of this upcounty area of refuge. This topic is yet to be clearly defined by the County Council and this lack of resolution hangs like a sword over the Reserve. There are many who fear that the Ag Reserve will die the death of a thousand cuts as the acreage around the periphery is continually challenged with special requests to add another building or two or more. Limiting the numbers of housing roofs in the Reserve as well as discouraging fragmentation of agricultural lands are both vital concerns in the area. Other discussions have focused on equity for farmer property owners in the form of selling rights for development instead elsewhere in the county in exchange for not developing lands in the Reserve. In an era of fewer county and developer funds, will these options be still in play?
This is a special set-aside where the air is clear and the clamor of the crowded highways is missing. When one looks to the sky one sees the hawk and eagle in flight, not the shadow of high rises. These are the lonely roads where you may end up behind a thresher as you drive along, amid the fields of corn, hay, or soybeans and pass by painted fences corralling grazing horses and nearby stables. On this early autumn day, in the nearby forests, the leaves were starting to change; their colorful array twinkled in the sunshine. One must wonder if this area will still remain a treasured place where we might be able to celebrate the 100th or even the 50th anniversary of its’ special protections.
Sharon Dooley hopes that those of you in the down county who have never explored the beauty of these upcounty areas - will take that country drive –someday soon – while we are still protecting the land here.
Thursday, November 06, 2008
Record Turnout?
Prof. Michael McDonald over at GMU has done a great job of tracking turnout in this and past elections. He has posted preliminary rough turnout estimates on his blog. So was turnout up or down?
According to Mike, national turnout was 62.6% among the voting eligible population. Unlike the voting-age population, the voting-eligible population excludes people over age 18 who aren't eligible like noncitizens, people imprisoned and disfranchised felons. At an estimate of 62.6%, turnout is up 1.9% from 2004 and is the highest turnout rate among the voting eligible population since 1964.
Turnout was up in Maryland too--67.0% of the voting eligible population of our state cast a ballot this year compared to just 63.1% in 2004.
The Great Maryland Tax Revolt
Free State conservatives may have experienced a miserable election night with the victory of Barack Obama and Democratic pickups in the House and Senate. But they should take comfort from one development in Maryland: voters have made clear their intolerance for new taxes.
The most obvious sign is the wild success of the slots referendum. The pundits predicted a close contest. So of course, preliminary totals show the referendum passing by 58.6-41.4%, a margin of 17.3 points. But that number conceals the staggering totality of the sweep. Fourteen of Maryland’s twenty-four jurisdictions recorded 20-point-plus pro-slots margins. And what of the five jurisdictions (Baltimore City, Allegany, Anne Arundel, Cecil and Worcester) that will actually receive a casino? They recorded a combined 59.2-40.8% vote for slots, a margin of 18.4 points.
The most overused line by politicians during this campaign has been, “I’m not a fan of slots.” Of course not. Few people are. But few voters are fans of taxes either. And slots proponents won because voters believed their core argument: slots are preferable to taxes. The regressive nature of the 2007 special session tax package undoubtedly brought that point home to a very large number of Marylanders.
Anti-tax sentiment extended even into the state’s bluest Democratic strongholds. Prince George’s County is infamous for its underachieving schools. Yet, voters rejected a mere $17 million tax hike targeted for the schools by a 71-29% margin. And Montgomery County, perhaps the most liberal place in the state, is on the verge of approving Robin Ficker’s anti-tax charter amendment.
All of this leads me to recall the considerable number of liberal politicians who have suggested an alcohol tax increase. Their argument begins with the fact that liquor taxes in Maryland are relatively low. And since everyone knows that low taxes are bad, basic common sense dictates that this tax be raised. Forget about the fact that few Bud-drinking people I know would agree with this philosophy. The truth is that we are entering a recession. Bad times warrant a comforting nip (or two) from the bottle. I would ask these politicians if they really want to tax my unemployed union members into involuntary sobriety. If they try, they may find how creative a construction worker with a two-by-four can really be.
Given the above developments, there is no safe place for a tax-hiking politician to hide in the Free State right about now. Not in Kingsville, Kettering, Kensington or the Kentlands. My advice to our political friends is to tolerate the spending cuts, keep your heads down and check back in with us after the next election.
Advantage: Harris
Absentee voter data from the 2006 race in Congress District 1 suggests that Andy Harris may very well overtake Frank Kratovil.
With 100% of the precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 160,915-160,000, or 915 votes. In the Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Harford precincts, Harris leads by 81,991 to 63,477. In the Eastern Shore precincts, Kratovil leads by 97,438-78,009. Kratovil won every Eastern Shore county and Harris won every county west of the Bay.
The election will now come down to absentee and provisional ballots. The state’s data for past Congressional elections lacks the details I used to analyze past Montgomery County data for the purpose of assessing the prospects of the Ficker amendment. But there is enough data from the 2006 election to suggest that absentee voting in District 1 trends Republican.
The state does not report 2006 polling place, absentee and provisional voting data for District 1 as a whole. But it does report those totals by county and by party. Two cuts on that data draw similar conclusions.
Cut 1: The Eastern Shore
Nine counties on the Eastern Shore (Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico and Worcester) lie entirely within District 1. In 2006, they accounted for 53% of all votes cast in the District 1 general election. So far in 2008, they account for 55% of the vote. In 2006, Democrats accounted for 46% of the 130,090 votes cast at the polls while Republicans accounted for 42.8%, a 3.2 point edge. However, of the 15,181 voters who cast absentee ballots, Republicans cast 51.1% of those votes compared to just 40.2% for the Democrats. The parties were virtually even (42.3% R vs. 41.4% D) for the 1,832 provisional ballots.
Cut 2: All Twelve Counties
Large parts of Baltimore, Harford and Anne Arundel Counties are outside District 1 but the data does not allow disaggregation below the county level. Nevertheless, the trend among all twelve counties may be instructive. In 2006, 52.7% of all poll voters were Democrats compared to just 36.3% for the Republicans – a 16.4 point edge. However, Republicans accounted for 50.4% of the absentee voters compared to 41.4% for the Democrats – a 9.0 point edge in the opposite direction. That is a total swing of 25.4 points! And bear in mind that the areas of these three counties inside District 1 tend to be conservative precincts. (Democrats held a 7.0 point edge in provisional voting, but the total number of those votes was only one-fifth of the absentees.)
Either way, Republicans dramatically outperformed Democrats in the 2006 absentee vote.
The Post reports that 25,239 absentee ballots remain to be counted. If Andy Harris wins 52% of them, he would net 1,010 votes over Kratovil – enough to cover his current deficit of 915. Given past patterns, that is a conservative performance estimate for a Republican in District 1.
Unless absentee voting patterns have fundamentally changed in the last two years, Andy Harris could well be going to Congress.
Wednesday, November 05, 2008
Maryland's Presidential Map
Obama ran up an impressive 61-37 margin over McCain in the Old Line State. However, it is how he did it that should worry Republicans.
According to unofficial returns, the core Democratic counties somehow managed to get even more Democratic. Montgomery went 71% for Obama compared to 66% for Kerry. An incredible 89% and 88% of voters in Prince George's and Baltimore City, respectively, voted for Obama compared to 82% for Kerry. These shifts make it harder for the GOP to win even if they pull off gains elsewhere.
And where those gains will be made appears less and less clear. Charles County appears to have completed the political shift into the solid Democratic camp which was apparent at the last state election. While Kerry won just 51% of the vote in Charles, Obama managed an impressive 63%. Howard also shows signs of moving from lean Democratic to solid Democratic, ramping up the share of the vote for the Democratic nominee from 54% to 60%.
Ironically, the political map of Maryland by counties conceals a bit more than it reveals as Obama did quite well even in areas colored red on the map, particularly in the fast-growing outer suburbs. Frederick County, supposedly part of the Republican core, gave 48% of the vote to Obama and just 50% to McCain--a sharp change from the 39% won by Kerry.
Anne Arundel gave Bush 56% in 2004 but McCain just 51% in 2008. Calvert similarly gave just 53% to McCain after voting 59% for Bush. Even Harford and Carroll drifted about 5% in the Democratic direction even if McCain still racked up stronger margins there. Obama also ran strongly in Kent, Somerset and Wicomico on the Eastern Shore, exceeding 45% of the vote in all three counties.
Obama gained just 1% over Kerry in Garrett, a county with a Republican pedigree dating back to the Civil War--a result that mirrored national trends of Republican gains in Appalachia. However, I somehow doubt that will give Maryland Republicans too much comfort.
Secretary Rice on President-Elect Obama's Victory
An extremely gracious statement by the Secretary of State. Even if you disagree strongly with the policies she developed and defended, I think you have to admire the style with which she did it.
Advantage: Ficker
Technically speaking, the fate of Robin Ficker’s latest anti-tax charter amendment has not been settled. But we fully expect it will soon become law.
With all precincts counted, Montgomery County’s unofficial results report 169,762 votes in favor of the Ficker Amendment and 169,171 votes against – a margin of 591 votes. That means the vote will come down to absentee and provisional ballots. We believe these ballots will give Ficker a larger margin and thereby seal his victory for the following two reasons:
1. The history of non-precinct voters favors Ficker
In the 2006 General Election, precinct voters favored O’Malley over Ehrlich by 63-36%, Cardin over Steele by 68-31% and Leggett over Floyd by 68-22%. Non-precinct voters, of whom the vast majority were domestic absentee voters, favored O’Malley over Ehrlich by 58-41%, Cardin over Steele by 63-36% and Leggett over Floyd by 64-27%. So in these three races on average, the Republican candidate overperformed by 4.7 points among non-precinct voters when compared to precinct voters. This suggests a small conservative skew that will benefit Ficker.
In the 2004 General Election, precinct voters favored Kerry over Bush by 66-33% and Mikulksi over Pipkin by 72-26%. Non-precinct voters favored Kerry over Bush by 69-29% and Mikulski over Pipkin by 73-24%. So in these two races on average, the Democrat overperformed by 2.6 points among non-precinct voters when compared to precinct voters. This suggests a tiny skew favoring the Democrats, which runs contrary to conventional wisdom. However, another Ficker Amendment appeared on the 2004 ballot which was nearly identical to this year’s amendment. Precinct voters rejected that Ficker proposal by a 59-41 margin. Non-precinct voters rejected it by a 55-45 margin. Ficker outperformed among non-precinct voters by 3.8 points. If that pattern holds this year, Ficker will win.
2. Absentee voters are less likely to have heard anti-Ficker arguments
The anti-Ficker coalition made its case against the amendment in two ways. First, an anti-Ficker mailer went out near the end of last week. Second, MCEA’s Apple Ballot carriers distributed the teachers’ recommendation against the proposal and made a point of telling voters that it originated with Robin Ficker. Absentees may very well have voted prior to receiving the mailer and almost certainly were not exposed to the on-the-ground Apple Ballot.
It will take awhile for the results to come in, but the above data strongly suggests that Robin Ficker has finally triumphed.
On Election 2008
Everywhere in America, liberals are awakening to sunrise after eight cold years of darkest night. They celebrate. They dream. But they should also reflect.
Euphoria on the left is understandable given the failures of the Bush regime and the rancor of the political season. It is the latter factor that fuels the left’s sense of triumph as well as its sense of grievance.
Do you remember the campaigns of President Reagan? His critique of the left was very different than that of his heirs. Reagan and his disciples believed liberals were weak, misguided and naïve, but not treasonous. Reagan desired victory but had no need to demonize his adversaries.
Twenty years later, a candidate for Vice-President accuses her opponent of “palling around with terrorists” and praises the “pro-America areas of this great nation.” When President Bush said, “You are with us or you are with the terrorists,” his statement was intended for foreign governments. Governor Palin has directed that sentiment at the American people. We will never forget that.
This is part of a pattern extending back to the election of 2000. Karl Rove taught us that victory was not enough; permanent domination and humiliation of the other side was the real goal. In the Rovian world, the victors gloat insufferably, indulging themselves in the gleeful excesses of power. The losers sulk in vengeful fury, vowing retribution. This is not the America of my childhood. And I hope it is not the America of my old age.
As for John McCain, he is a decent man who succumbed to the pressures of an intense campaign. He is not the first politician to do so and he will not be the last. But let us remember the good in this son of America who spent much of his youth in North Vietnamese jails. When I recall Senator McCain in future years, I will remember the man who refused to leave captivity until POWs held longer than him were released. I will remember the man who made common cause with Ted Kennedy and Russ Feingold. I will remember the man who relentlessly pursued corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff in the face of great embarrassment to his own party. But most of all, I will remember the man who stood up to President Bush and told him that torture was wrong.
Look around the country! Nearly half of our fellow citizens voted for Senator McCain. Are they all deluded, racist, nativist or ignorant? Of course not. Just like us, they are anxious about the future. They do not want failure. Neither do we. Many of them recognize that George W. Bush has accomplished something unique in American history: he has bequeathed to his successor two raging wars, an apocalyptic economic crisis and diminished standing in the world. All of us, Obama voters and McCain voters, have to live with the smoldering devastation of that legacy. That alone provides cause for alliance.
So put away those champagne bottles. Put on your hardhats. Strap on your toolbelts. Report to the jobsite and take your place with moderates, independents and conservatives. It’s time to leave the strong words of Election 2008 in the past. It’s time to rebuild America.
Ficker Amendment Narrowly Winning
According to unofficial results from all 243 Montgomery precincts, the Ficker amendment has passed by a margin of 591 votes--the totals are 169,762 to 169,171, or 50.09% to 49.91%. Passage of the amendment changes "Section 305 of the County Charter to require a unanimous vote of 9 Councilmembers, rather than the 7 out of 9 votes currently required, to levy a tax on real property that will produce revenue that exceeds the annual limit on property tax revenue set in that section."
Kratovil Looks Strong
Kratovil still leads by 2%, or around 4000 votes, in the First Congressional District with 93% of precincts counted. A great pickup for the Democrats in a district that went heavily for President Bush just four years ago.
Update: His lead is down to 916 votes, or 0.3%, but Kratovil appears headed to Congress according to unofficial results.
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Congratulations Chris and House Dems
The U.S. House results are still trickling in but looking very good at this hour, though I don't yet have an idea of the overall Democratic gain. More information after the jump.
In Maryland, Kratovil leads in the First District by around 4000 votes or 2% with 81% of precincts reporting. A stunning outcome in a formerly safe Republican district. Thank you Club for Growth and Wayne Gilchrist.
In Virginia, Democrats have won the seat formerly held by Tom Davis in northern Virginia. Democratic candidates currently have narrow leads in two seats held by Republican incumbents Virgil Goode and Thelma Drake. Looks like the Old Dominion is not just going for Obama but giving the Dems a three seat net gain to flip the House delegation to a 6-5 Democratic advantage.
Before the election, the Democrats held 1 of 3 seats in New Mexico. It looks like we will pick up both of two seats vacated by Republicans who ran for the Senate.
Chris Shays lost his seat in Connecticut leaving the GOP with no House seats in New England. In neighboring New York, the Republicans have been relegated to 3 seats out of 29 assuming that Democrats retain their narrow lead in the one seat yet to be called by CNN.
Democrats look likely to take a seat even in McCain's home state of Arizona. The gain of one seat in Arizona turns the delegation from an evenly divided 4-4 to 5-3 Democratic.
Berthiaume Defeating Abrams
With 186 of 243 precincts reporting, School Board challenger Laura Berthiaume is leading incumbent Steve Abrams by 108,207-102,026 (51.3-48.4%). Phil Kauffman is blowing away Tommy Le by 2-1.
Looks like Steve Abrams has finally run out of friends.
Update: With 212 of 243 precincts reporting, Berthiaume is holding on to a 126,275-118,905 lead (51-48%). Bear in mind that both the Post and the Gazette endorsed Abrams while Berthiaume was supported by MCEA.
Slots Passes, Bartlett Wins (Updated)
Based on county results as of 11 PM, we're calling both these contests. We are not yet calling Harris-Kratovil because too many of the Eastern Shore counties are not reporting yet.
Slots
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, approve 63-37
Baltimore City: 46,311 votes for, 30,511 against (approve 60-40)
Baltimore County: 111 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Calvert: 23 of 26 precincts, approve 63-37
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, approve 59-41
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Howard: 29 of 110 precincts, approve 56-44
Montgomery: 163 of 243 precincts, approve 52-48
Prince George's: 103 of 218 precincts, approve 59-41
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, approve 61-39
Saint Mary's: 31 of 31 precincts, approve 63-37
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, approve 67-33
Congress District 1
Baltimore County: 15 of 24 precincts, Harris 8,686-Kratovil 5,591 (61-39)
Harford: 35 of 38 precincts, Harris 21,323-Kratovil 15,539 (58-42)
Queen Anne's: 17 of 17 precincts, Kratovil 11,545-Harris 9,457 (55-45)
Wicomico: 38 of 38 precincts, Kratovil 20,591-Harris 15,487 (57-43)
Congress District 6
Allegany: 22 of 36 precincts, Bartlett 9,465-Dougherty 6,004 (61-39)
Carroll: 16 of 49 precincts, Bartlett 14,351-Dougherty 7,063 (67-33)
Frederick: 56 of 65 precincts, Bartlett 41,476-Dougherty 34,213 (55-45)
Harford: 9 of 12 precincts, Bartlett 6,506-Dougherty 3,200 (67-33)
Washington: 35 of 50 precincts, Bartlett 19,008-Dougherty 14,866 (56-44)
Update: CNN reports that with 81% of precincts reporting, Kratovil leads Harris by 128,143 to 124,241 (50-48%).
Update 2: With 89% of precincts reporting, Kratovil's lead is down to 1,721 (135,640 to 133,919, or 49-49%).
Update 3: With 93% of precincts reporting, Kratovil now leads by 3,866 votes (145,163 to 141,297, or 50-48%). Andy Harris may not concede this race quickly because of absentee ballots, but Kratovil is in the driver's seat.
Ficker Amendment Very Tight
According to the MoCo Board of Election unofficial results at 10:30pm, the Ficker amendment (aka County Question B) leads by 1.36%. Looks like voters are feeling grumpy about those tax increases last year.
Update from Adam: With 178 of 243 precincts reporting, Ficker is now losing by just 71 votes (115,019-114,948). MoCo has had close votes on Ficker Amendments before, but this is incredible.
Update 2: With 186 of 243 precincts, Ficker is losing by 253 votes (122,830-122,577). This may come down to absentees.
Update 3: With 212 of 243 precincts, Ficker is losing by 650 votes (143,587-142,937). How much do you want to bet Ficker will go banana-cakes and demand a recount?
Update 4: Folks, you just can't make this stuff up. With 241 of 243 precincts, Ficker is now winning by 201 votes (165,727-165,526). We are not going to know the final outcome of this until every single vote is counted.
Slots Results Thread
Here's the latest on slots.
At 9:40 PM, here's how a few counties are going.
Baltimore City: 19,264 votes for, 11,758 against (approve 62-38)
Baltimore County: 59 of 219 precincts, approve 58-42
Frederick: 12 of 65 precincts, approve 62-38
Harford: 72 of 75 precincts, approve 60-40
Montgomery: 59 of 243 precincts, approve 54-46
Prince George's: 60 of 218 precincts, approve 60-40
Washington: 15 of 50 precincts, approve 67-33
Wicomico: 10 of 38 precincts, approve 65-35
Note: At the moment, Baltimore County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 58-39%. Wicomico County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 49.16%-48.52%. Harford County is voting for Harris over Kratovil by 56-40%. Frederick County is voting for Bartlett over Dougherty by 52-44%. Washington County is voting for Bartlett over Dougherty by 53-43%.
The Baltimore County precincts in Congress District 1 are some of the most conservative in the district and are much needed by Andy Harris. Jennifer Dougherty cannot win Congress District 6 if she loses Frederick County.
Our Classy Congressman
Maryland Moment has the story:
At Temple Emanuel in Kensington, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) stood in line for 40 minutes with the rest of his consituents, who offered to let him jump ahead.
"There's no way I'm jumping the line," he said, preferring to talk with voters in Maryland's 8th Congressional District and answer their questions.
As the Polls Close
Here's a handy timeline from the Glover Park Group for evaluating the election as the polls close.
Pictures at an Exhibition
Here's the scene at my home precinct, 13-24 - a pretty little neighborhood hiding in the shadow of the Intersection of Death. Voters started showing up around 6 AM, fully an hour before the polls opened. By 7 AM, 300 people had arrived, most of whom were in a line snaking throughout the precinct building's interior. Here's the tail end.
State Senator Rich Madaleno (second from left) and Delegate Jeff Waldstreicher (third from left) came by to cheer on the Democratic volunteers. Note how the crew's youngest member dressed up for the occasion.
This cheerful lady is a member of MCEA's famous Apple Ballot legions. The 800-pound Gorilla's goals this year are electing Phil Kauffman and Laura Berthiaume to the school board and defeating the much-detested Ficker Amendment.
Here is one of hundreds of thousands of MCDCC sample ballots being distributed to a voter. If the slots referendum vote is close in other parts of the state, the MoCo Dems' sample ballot will probably defeat it. As we have previously reported, the county's Democratic Party voted to oppose its own governor and urge its members to vote against slots.
In my precinct, there were 1,975 registered voters and 1,463 cards cast in the 2004 General Election - a turnout rate of 74%. As of 3:30 today, there were 2,050 registered voters and 1,250 cards cast - a turnout rate of 61% prior to the evening rush. Poll workers expect at least 200 absentee ballots. It is entirely possible that turnout here could approach 90%.
We'll be back later to look at some results in Maryland and Montgomery County as soon as the data comes in!
Photos from the Polls in Chevy Chase
People Lined Up to Vote Outside Chevy Chase Elementary
Tina Coplan Shows Steve Lawton to a Voting Machine
Jim Roy Casts His Ballot
Trina Ulrich Joins the Line to Vote
Obama Leads in First Ballots Counted
Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire have followed their tradition of voting just after midnight on Election Day and quickly counting the ballots. Obama won the two towns by 32 votes to just 16 for McCain. According to Wikipedia, Obama is the first Democrat to carry Dixville Notch since Humphrey beat Nixon in the town in 1968. Oh, and Shaheen leads Sununu by 12 votes to 6 in Dixville Notch in the U.S. Senate race--an ominous start for the Republicans in an area they've usually done well.
Meet MoCo's Most Independent Woman
Gaithersburg resident Geneva Garner, age 108, has voted in more elections than you ever will.
As a blogger, I hear a lot of things. Most of them aren’t very interesting but this item caught my eye. MCDCC officers Alan Banov and Milt Minneman told me there was a 108-year-old woman in Gaithersburg who was going to vote Democratic for the first time. Now I was very skeptical of this, having heard of a 108-year-old woman in North Carolina who was also going to vote for Obama. So I told them, “Something is fishy here... How many 108-year-old Obama voters can there be? I'm not inclined to bite on this line.”
But their source contacted me and supplied me the name of her 108-year-old friend: Geneva Garner. Sure enough, Ms. Garner really is 108. So I drove up to Gaithersburg to meet her at her voting place.
Being a Silver Spring guy, I naturally got lost on the way there. I arrived barely in time as Ms. Garner was entering her community building. Ms. Garner says she has been voting regularly since women first won the right to vote in 1920. She is a Republican but votes “independently.”
And so came the big moment. I asked, “Do you mind if I ask who you’re voting for?” Ms. Garner replied, “I just made up my mind this morning. I’m voting for Ralph Nader. The two parties are for big business!” Ms. Garner has been voting since the time that cars replaced horses and NO ONE is going to tell her how to vote!
I just have one thing to say to Mr. Banov and Mr. Minneman: you, dear sirs, owe me a bon-bon!
MPW Election Predictions
For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!
The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:
Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)
Here's our picks:
President by State
Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman
Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin
Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco
North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.
Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.
Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!
Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.
Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.
Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.
Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.
Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.
Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.
Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.
Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.
Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.
Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.
Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.
Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.
Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.
U.S. Senate
Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin
Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin
Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."
Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.
New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.
North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."
Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.
The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).
Maryland
U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin
U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.
Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.
MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.
MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin
We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!
Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.
David's Picks
Some of you have been kind enough to ask how I'm voting this year and why. Here goes:
Yes, We Can: Barack Obama for President
Others have no doubt said it better but I have never seen a presidential candidate inspire so many people in my lifetime. My students are energized and my neighborhood is a sea of Obama signs. The campaign feels more like a movement than a campaign. Yet, I also cannot recall a campaign so organized or disciplined--an aspect which bodes well for an Obama Administration.
And the country badly needs that organization and inspiration to deal with the economic crisis at home, two wars abroad, and the continuing threat of terrorism. America has never been so isolated abroad--something I've seen vividly on my own travels and which would change rapidly as the election of Obama reminds our friends of why they admire and respect the values and the leadership of the United States.
More importantly, Obama has the temperament and the judgment to make for an outstanding president. He's thoughtful and smart enough to learn from his inevitable mistakes. His presidential campaign has visibly demonstrated that he knows how to run a large organization--and not let it run him.
His pragmatic approach combined with determination should allow us to make progress on a range of issues. Obama understands that our national security is linked to our energy policy and the environment. I have confidence that Obama will work to make education and health care more accessible to all Americans and not just wait for the benefits of recession to trickle down. And he'll continue to ask Americans for their help in improving our country--not just for their votes.
When the general election campaign started, I thought that America would have a spirited campaign focusing primarily on the issues between Barack Obama and John McCain. Like many Democrats, even if I didn't plan to vote for Senator McCain, I respected his service to our country and his courage not just as a soldier but in standing up to the Bush Administration on a number of issues, particularly the treatment of POWs.
I don't know what the Republican Party has done with that John McCain but I sure wish they'd bring him back. Throughout the campaign, Senator McCain has proclaimed himself a "maverick" even as he has embraced closely not just the Bush-Cheney record but their divisive tactics that fail to recognize that we can disagree on politics without losing our mutual respect and a sense of common destiny as Americans.
McCain's economic policy seems to consist wholly of reheating the failed Bush strategy of cutting taxes for the wealthy and running up massive deficits. McCain's slogan is "country first" and great strengths are supposedly leadership and experience. Yet he chose someone unprepared to assume office as his running mate and his major response to the economic crisis was to exploit it for political advantage.
Ultimately, McCain blinked as his "I shall go to Washington" strategy only highlighted his lack of ideas or engagement with the economy. In contrast, Obama remained calm even as he handled this tricky issue well and coolly faced down McCain's demand to cancel the presidential debate. While McCain looked erratic and unpredictable, Obama visibly demonstrated leadership and his ability to handle a tough situation with aplomb.
However, the worst aspect of the McCain campaign has been its reliance on the politics of demonization. The McCain campaign has oddly attacked Obama for being eloquent, having gained admission to prestigious schools, and having chosen public service--in other words for being an example of the American Dream at work and the success for which every parent hopes for their children.
Obama works to overcome divisions and proclaims that we don't live in red states or blue states but in the United States. McCain and Palin divide us as they talk about "real Americans" and caricature Obama as a socialist and terrorist. (Question: if Obama wins, is his victory a mandate for socialism and terrorism?)
As I wrote when I explained why I supported Barack Obama in the primary: "Americans love this country deeply and desperately want someone who can restore their faith in it and their government. Barack Obama can do that. Our nation's most successful self-made businesswoman, Oprah Winfrey, got it right when she said 'He's the One.'"
Congress: Bring Back Chris, Bring On Donna
Chris Van Hollen has been an outstanding representative, working his way up the congressional ladder and achieving a high degree of influence and effectiveness in an astonishingly short time. Despite being Chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), he has maintained a strong presence in the Eighth District.
Democrats won most of the low-hanging fruit in 2006 when they took back the House, so taking over the DCCC for the 2008 was not an easy task. Thanks to excellent candidate recruitment and fundraising, Democrats are positioned to increase their majority approximately 25 to 30 seats--way up from the maximum of ten most pundits thought possible after 2006--and our congressman's influence--and thus ours--will only rise.
I don't live in Donna's district but it will be a welcome breadth of fresh air for the Fourth to have an outspoken representative focused on public policy and the needs of her district--not on corporate interests or local politics. She's already amping up the quality of representation in Maryland.
School Board: Laura Berthiaume in District 2
Adam Pagnucco has explained why it is Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams--the last Republican serving at the county level in Montgomery County. Vote for Laura Berthiaume for more tolerant representation on the school board.
Chris Barclay is unopposed for an at-large seat and Phil Kauffman faces perennial candidate Tommy Le in District 2.
Question 1: Yes on Early Voting
A sensible reform which makes it easier to vote and helps avoid problems associated with record turnouts on Election Day.
Question 2: No on Slots
I'm not a diehard on either side of this debate but I'll be voting against slots. I outlined the arguments for and against slots sometime ago. The best arguments for slots remain that it would allow the State to capture money spent by Marylanders on slot machines in neighboring states and that the government shouldn't be in the business of regulating sin.
Nonetheless, I think it unwise for a high income, educated state like Maryland to be moving into a downmarket industry like slots. I also see no need for the State to hand out a few licenses--which might as well be to print money--to a few select individuals in order to subsidize the horse racing industry. It's a short-term fix for a budget crisis that our history suggests we'll likely regret over the long term.
Question A on Updating County Charter: Yes
Question B: Vote No on the latest version of the Ficker Amendment
Adam Pagnucco gives his reasons why. I'll just say that if Robin Ficker wants the Council to adopt different policies, he should convince us to change who we elect to office, not the County Charter.
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