With nearly three-quarters of the county’s precincts (175) plus early votes in, we are calling most of the primaries. The winners are:
D14 House: Kaiser, Zucker, Luedtke
D15 House: Feldman, Dumais, Miller
D16 House: Frick, Lee
D17 House: Barve, Gilchrist, Simmons
D18 Senate: Madaleno
D18 House: Carr, Gutierrez, Waldstreicher
D19 Senate: Manno
D19 House: Kramer, Cullison, Arora
D20 House: Hixson, Hucker, Mizeur
D39 House: Barkley, Reznik, Robinson
Council At-Large: Elrich, Floreen, Riemer, Leventhal
Council 1: Berliner
Council 2: Rice
Not Called:
D14 Senate – Montgomery 3,232 vs. Kramer 3,108
D17 Senate – Forehand 2,506 vs. Kagan 2,499
D39 Senate – King 3,051 vs. Ali 2,813
D16 House 3rd Seat – Kelly 3,009 vs. Lierman 2,689
Update: We hear that Lenett and Ali have conceded.
Update 2: With all precincts counted, Forehand leads Kagan 3,830 to 3,522; King leads Ali 3,514 to 3,287; and Kelly leads Lierman 4,817 to 4,443. We are calling those races for the leaders. In the District 14 Senate race, Montgomery leads Kramer 4,740 to 4,639. That race will go to absentees and provisionals.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
We’re Calling Them! (Two Updates)
Sixth Precinct Results
One hundred fifty seven reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
22 precincts
Montgomery: 2,648
Kramer: 2,543
D14 House
22 precincts
Kaiser: 3,406
Zucker: 3,345
Luedtke: 2,017
Finkelstein: 1,630
Newsome: 1,498
D15 House
24 precincts
Dumais: 2,769
Feldman: 2,765
Miller: 2,115
Fraser-Hidalgo: 777
Wibeto: 551
D16 House
25 precincts
Frick: 4,936
Lee: 4,935
Kelly: 2,839
Lierman: 2,511
Jamgochian: 1,851
Winston: 1,258
D17 Senate
23 precincts
Forehand: 2,313
Kagan: 2,296
D18 Senate
26 precincts
Madaleno: 4,384
Griffiths: 1,186
D18 House
26 precincts
Gutierrez: 3,950
Waldstreicher: 3,567
Carr: 3,448
Beyer: 2,668
Atterbeary: 2,079
D19 Senate
31 precincts
Manno: 4,179
Lenett: 3,280
House 19
31 precincts
Kramer: 5,072
Cullison: 4,286
Arora: 3,853
Hutchins: 3,240
Dang: 2,317
Scretchen: 1,097
D39 Senate
25 precincts
King: 2,571
Ali: 2,286
House 39
25 precincts
Barkley: 3,606
Reznik: 2,792
Robinson: 2,258
Hydorn: 1,413
Council At-Large
157 precincts
Elrich: 25,757
Riemer: 21,662
Floreen: 21,561
Leventhal: 21,002
Trachtenberg: 18,515
Wagner: 17,800
Council 1
40 precincts
Berliner: 7,943
Hopkins: 2,803
Council 2
37 precincts
Rice: 3,431
Hanson: 1,742
Dooley: 1,428
Fifth Precinct Results
One hundred forty eight reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
20 precincts
Montgomery: 2,490
Kramer: 2,402
D14 House
20 precincts
Kaiser: 3,219
Zucker: 3,171
Luedtke: 1,919
Finkelstein: 1,531
Newsome: 1,424
D15 House
22 precincts
Feldman: 2,592
Dumais: 2,588
Miller: 1,977
Fraser-Hidalgo: 702
Wibeto: 508
D16 House
25 precincts
Lee: 4,492
Frick: 4,478
Kelly: 2,590
Lierman: 2,263
Jamgochian: 1,691
Winston: 1,121
D17 Senate
22 precincts
Forehand: 2,123
Kagan: 2,058
D18 Senate
24 precincts
Madaleno: 3,934
Griffiths: 1,061
D18 House
24 precincts
Gutierrez: 3,544
Waldstreicher: 3,149
Carr: 3,093
Beyer: 2,429
Atterbeary: 1,856
D19 Senate
30 precincts
Manno: 4,007
Lenett: 3,155
House 19
30 precincts
Kramer: 4,878
Cullison: 4,121
Arora: 3,722
Hutchins: 3,101
Dang: 2,213
Scretchen: 1,046
D39 Senate
25 precincts
King: 2,571
Ali: 2,286
House 39
25 precincts
Barkley: 3,606
Reznik: 2,792
Robinson: 2,258
Hydorn: 1,413
Council At-Large
148 precincts
Elrich: 23,814
Floreen: 19,866
Riemer: 19,821
Leventhal: 19,396
Trachtenberg: 17,093
Wagner: 16,490
Council 1
40 precincts
Berliner: 7,454
Hopkins: 2,667
Council 2
33 precincts
Rice: 3,209
Hanson: 1,617
Dooley: 1,349
Fourth Precinct Results
One hundred twenty eight reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
18 precincts
Montgomery: 2,270
Kramer: 2,177
D14 House
18 precincts
Kaiser: 2,954
Zucker: 2,882
Luedtke: 1,768
Finkelstein: 1,398
Newsome: 1,331
D15 House
19 precincts
Feldman: 2,278
Dumais: 2,258
Miller: 1,734
Fraser-Hidalgo: 607
Wibeto: 432
D16 House
19 precincts
Lee: 3,336
Frick: 3,316
Kelly: 1,937
Lierman: 1,706
Jamgochian: 1,251
Winston: 819
D17 Senate
20 precincts
Forehand: 1,877
Kagan: 1,876
D18 Senate
23 precincts
Madaleno: 3,549
Griffiths: 911
D18 House
23 precincts
Gutierrez: 3,149
Waldstreicher: 2,819
Carr: 2,770
Beyer: 2,206
Atterbeary: 1,631
D19 Senate
28 precincts
Manno: 3,709
Lenett:2,925
House 19
28 precincts
Kramer: 4,566
Cullison: 3,838
Arora: 3,457
Hutchins: 2,842
Dang: 2,002
Scretchen: 944
D39 Senate
22 precincts
King: 2,168
Ali: 1,944
House 39
22 precincts
Barkley: 3,059
Reznik: 2,375
Robinson: 1,920
Hydorn: 1,212
Council At-Large
128 precincts
Elrich: 20,731
Riemer: 17,219
Floreen: 17,214
Leventhal: 16,971
Trachtenberg: 14,879
Wagner: 14,343
Council 1
33 precincts
Berliner: 5,997
Hopkins: 2,309
Council 2
28 precincts
Rice: 2,827
Hanson: 1,397
Dooley: 1,178
Third Precinct Results
One hundred eight reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
17 precincts
Montgomery: 1,808
Kramer: 1,757
D14 House
17 precincts
Kaiser: 2,381
Zucker: 2,295
Luedtke: 1,412
Finkelstein: 1,134
Newsome: 1,080
D15 House
18 precincts
Feldman: 1,993
Dumais: 1,964
Miller: 1,512
Fraser-Hidalgo: 517
Wibeto: 375
D16 House
14 precincts
Lee: 2,392
Frick: 2,330
Kelly: 1,390
Lierman: 1,230
Jamgochian: 879
Winston: 617
D17 Senate
19 precincts
Forehand: 1,737
Kagan: 1,727
D18 Senate
20 precincts
Madaleno: 2,572
Griffiths: 695
D18 House
20 precincts
Gutierrez: 2,354
Waldstreicher: 2,081
Carr: 1,937
Beyer: 1,719
Atterbeary: 1,256
D19 Senate
25 precincts
Manno: 3,145
Lenett:2,502
House 19
25 precincts
Kramer: 3,923
Cullison: 3,279
Arora: 2,940
Hutchins: 2,401
Dang: 1,704
Scretchen: 795
D39 Senate
20 precincts
King: 1,627
Ali: 1,476
House 39
20 precincts
Barkley: 2,288
Reznik: 1,834
Robinson: 1,435
Hydorn: 960
Council At-Large
108 precincts
Elrich: 16,446
Floreen: 13,846
Riemer: 13,747
Leventhal: 13,651
Trachtenberg: 12,105
Wagner: 11,342
Council 1
26 precincts
Berliner: 4,565
Hopkins: 1,662
Council 2
26 precincts
Rice: 2,035
Hanson: 1,084
Dooley: 881
Second Precinct Results
Eighty reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
13 precincts
Montgomery: 1,172
Kramer: 1,149
D14 House
13 precincts
Kaiser: 1,543
Zucker: 1,469
Luedtke: 918
Finkelstein: 722
Newsome: 703
D15 House
Feldman: 1,499
Dumais: 1,444
Miller: 1,119
Fraser-Hidalgo: 396
Wibeto: 292
D16 House
Lee: 2,330
Frick: 2,267
Kelly: 1,354
Lierman: 1,196
Jamgochian: 857
Winston: 602
D17 Senate
15 precincts
Forehand: 1,316
Kagan: 1,198
D18 Senate
17 precincts
Madaleno: 2,108
Griffiths: 556
D18 House
17 precincts
Gutierrez: 1,889
Waldstreicher: 1,682
Carr: 1,615
Beyer: 1,391
Atterbeary: 1,038
D19 Senate
18 precincts
Manno: 2,067
Lenett: 1,449
House 19
18 precincts
Kramer: 2,466
Cullison: 2,040
Arora: 1,917
Hutchins: 1,425
Dang: 1,073
Scretchen: 491
D39 Senate
14 precincts
Ali: 959
King: 898
House 39
14 precincts
Barkley: 1,338
Reznik: 1,061
Robinson: 819
Hydorn: 577
Council At-Large
80 precincts
Elrich: 12,026
Floreen: 10,317
Riemer: 10,103
Leventhal: 9,921
Trachtenberg: 9,312
Wagner: 8,133
Council 1
25 precincts
Berliner: 4,096
Hopkins: 1,518
Council 2
15 precincts
Rice: 1,005
Hanson: 652
Dooley: 413
First Precinct Results
First 55 reporting precincts out of 243 by race.
D14 Senate
10 precincts
Montgomery: 924
Kramer: 918
D14 House
10 precincts
Kaiser: 1,227
Zucker: 1,159
Luedtke: 751
Finkelstein: 574
Newsome: 532
D15 House
Feldman: 1,211
Dumais: 1,170
Miller: 900
Fraser-Hidalgo: 317
Wibeto: 244
D16 House
Lee: 1,750
Frick: 1,691
Kelly: 1,000
Lierman: 847
Jamgochian: 657
Winston: 455
D17 Senate
13 precincts
Forehand: 1099
Kagan: 957
D18 Senate
13 precincts
Madaleno: 1,394
Griffiths: 433
D18 House
13 precincts
Gutierrez: 1,269
Waldstreicher: 1,148
Carr: 1,083
Beyer: 900
Atterbeary: 733
D19 Senate
9 precincts
Manno: 1,012
Lenett: 699
House 19
9 precincts
Kramer: 1,173
Arora: 971
Cullison: 967
Hutchins: 651
Dang: 572
Scretchen: 257
D39 Senate
11 precincts
Ali: 684
King: 672
House 39
11 precincts
Barkley: 983
Reznik: 795
Robinson: 584
Hydorn: 471
Council At-Large
Elrich: 8,703
Floreen: 7,568
Riemer: 7,362
Leventhal: 7,281
Trachtenberg: 6,617
Wagner: 5,955
Council 1
Berliner: 2,647
Hopkins: 988
Council 2
Rice: 954
Hanson: 632
Dooley: 397
Interpreting the Early Votes
Right now, MoCo political junkies are eagerly scanning the early voting results. But they should beware because they are probably skewed in important ways.
The early voting totals, which will probably wind up being 5-10% of the total vote (if that), are distinct from election day voting in the following ways.
1. They are driven by geography.
MoCo had five early voting centers: Bauer Drive Rec Center in Aspen Hill, the Executive Office Building in Downtown Rockville, the Germantown Recreation Center, the Praisner Community Center in Burtonsville and the Silver Spring Civic Center. That will disproportionately impact candidates who will do well (or badly) in those areas, and will affect legislative districts. The fact that Montgomery is leading Kramer in District 14 could well be because the Praisner Center is in Burtonsville, the relatively liberal part of the district. In Council District 2, Craig Rice, who lives in Germantown, benefits from early voting in the Germantown Recreation Center. In District 18, Beyer ran relatively well in Silver Spring last time whereas Carr’s base is along Connecticut Avenue. That may be part of the reason she is leading Carr. And in the at-large race, Trachtenberg and Wagner were hurt in early voting totals because there is no early voting center in Bethesda. Elrich, Leventhal and Riemer benefitted from early voting in Downtown Silver Spring.
Early voting center geography was correlated with legislative district voting percentages. Consider early voting turnout rates by legislative district, noting which ones had early voting centers.
District 20: 2.03% (Silver Spring Civic Center)
District 19: 2.02% (Bauer Drive Rec Center)
District 14: 1.55% (Praisner Center)
District 17: 1.22% (EOB)
District 18: 1.22% (None)
District 39: 1.11% (Germantown Rec)
District 15: 0.96% (None)
District 16: 0.76% (None)
2. They are pre-Apple Ballot.
We hear that MCEA had little or no Apple Ballot coverage at the early voting centers. Also, MCEA’s mailers hit late. That works against Wagner and Riemer in the early voting results.
3. Many of the early votes are pre-mail.
Many early voters voted prior to getting all of the mail. We don’t know how that will play out, but it could be a factor.
Welcome to the beginning of what could be a long night.
Early Vote Results
The MoCo Board of Elections has just posted its early voting results. We anticipate that early votes will comprise somewhere between 5% and 10% of total votes. The results are here, but here's a quick breakdown for key primaries.
D14 Senate
Montgomery: 453
Kramer: 423
D14 House
Kaiser: 600
Zucker: 544
Luedtke: 392
Finkelstein: 277
Newsome: 249
D15 House
Dumais: 433
Feldman: 432
Miller: 356
Fraser-Hidalgo: 109
Wibeto: 92
D16 House
Lee: 334
Frick: 307
Lierman: 142
Kelly: 130
Jamgochian: 105
Winston: 91
D17 Senate
Forehand: 356
Kagan: 279
D18 Senate
Madaleno: 499
Griffiths: 127
D18 House
Gutierrez: 454
Waldstreicher: 392
Beyer: 377
Carr: 320
Atterbeary: 286
D19 Senate
Manno: 653
Lenett: 408
House 19
Kramer: 729
Arora: 643
Cullison: 559
Dang: 384
Hutchins: 366
Scretchen: 191
D39 Senate
Ali: 283
King: 255
House 39
Barkley: 386
Reznik: 341
Robinson: 225
Hydorn: 172
Council At-Large
Elrich: 3,496
Floreen: 3,097
Leventhal: 3,048
Riemer: 2,934
Trachtenberg: 2,777
Wagner: 2,230
Council 1
Berliner: 510
Hopkins: 206
Council 2
Rice: 485
Hanson: 239
Dooley: 151
Turnout Update
MCDCC just sent us a spreadsheet with 3 PM turnout numbers for 197 precincts. 35,311 Democrats voted in those precincts, which projects out to 43,556 Dems for all 243 precincts. 94,351 Democratic voters cast ballots on primary day in 2006. In addition, 6,087 Democratic early votes have been cast in MoCo. Those results are becoming available now.
Turnout is LOW LOW
Guess what? Turnout is low, low, LOW. Surprise, surprise!
MCDCC has released a list of turnout counts for 183 precincts as of 3 PM. Those precincts together reported 33,380 Democratic votes so far. That projects to about 44,000 votes for all 243 precincts. There were 94,351 Democratic votes on primary day, 2006.
Now 6,087 Democratic early votes have been cast in MoCo, so the combined total was about 50,000 at 3 PM. The prime-time evening hours are only now underway. So what will the poll vote total be? Seventy thousand something? Eighty thousand? That’s still significantly below 2006.
Anecdotal data from our spies confirm this. Every informant we have spoken with at the polls says that turnout is “light,” “dismal” or even “abysmal.” Low turnout is going to be a major explanatory factor in these elections.
Turnout is LOW
An extremely preliminary count released by the Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) suggests that turnout is low today. Very, VERY low.
MCDCC has collected turnout counts as of 10 AM on their website for 182 of the county’s 243 precincts. Those 182 precincts saw 12,267 Democratic voters. That projects out to between 16,000 and 17,000 voters for the morning if these precincts are representative. In the 2006 MoCo primary, 94,351 Democrats voted on election day.
Now, there are several issues to be considered. First, early voting did not exist in 2006 (though we hear that has been low too). Second, most voting occurs in the evening. Third, there will be lots of absentees and provisionals to be counted.
But consider this. In 2006, 2,695 total people – including Democrats, Republicans, members of other parties and unaffiliated voters – cast votes in Leisure World on election day. As of 10 AM this morning, only 373 people had voted there. In 2006, 1,062 people voted in Precinct 5-05 (Springbrook High School in Silver Spring). As of 10 AM today, 124 people voted there. In 2006, 826 people voted in Precinct 5-12 (Paint Branch High School in Burtonsville). As of 10 AM today, 128 people voted there. And in 2006, 813 people voted in Precinct 13-51 (Rock Creek Valley Elementary School in Rockville). As of 10 AM today, 116 people voted there.
Yes, there are lots of uncertainties in these very early turnout numbers, but they confirm the question that some of our spies are asking: where are all the voters?
Tuesday, November 04, 2008
Photos from the Polls in Chevy Chase
MPW Election Predictions
For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!
The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:
Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)
Here's our picks:
President by State
Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman
Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.
Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin
Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco
North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.
Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman
The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.
Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.
Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!
Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.
Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.
Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.
Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.
Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.
Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.
Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.
Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.
Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.
Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.
Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.
Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.
Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.
U.S. Senate
Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin
Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin
Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."
Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.
New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.
North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."
Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.
The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).
Maryland
U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin
U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.
Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.
MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.
MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin
We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!
Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Lasting Impressions from the Special Election
Don Praisner, with Councilmembers Marc Elrich, Duchy Trachtenberg, and Phil Andrews just after the final precinct votes were released.
Here are the final photos from yesterday's election.
Thanks to Mike Benefiel, Campaign Manager for Pat Ryan, for the pictures from Leisure World.
Signs outside of 13-54, Clubhouse I.
Don Praisner and Lillis Caulton, precinct chair, 13-54.
A mid-day walk of the "gauntlet" by a voter at 13-54.
From left: Praisner voters Al Shanefelter and Claire Rupert surround precinct chair, Elaine Crutchfield, neutral, outside of Tyler Page ES (5-8).
Candy Shimming, for Praisner, outside of Kennedy HS (13-02) in the early morning cold.
Kathy Ryan, wife of candidate Pat Ryan, just after voting at Fairland Center (5-17).
Vicky Meyers, precinct vice chair and Betty Petrides, for Kanstoroom, outside of Fairland Center (5-17).
Kevin Gillogly, for Praisner, and Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez, for Navarro, outside of Shriver ES (13-36).
Dr. "Z" (aka Gilberto Zelaya, Ph.D), Community Outreach Liaison Director for MoCo Board of Elections, working his Blackberry outside of Shriver ES (13-36).
Have a photo you want to share? Then post a comment and I will contact you privately.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Photos From Don's Party
Looking at election returns on the WWW -- just like you. From left: Campaign Manager, Eric Hensel, Mary Ann Bowens (partially blocked), Rocky Lopes, and Claire Iseli. Oh and some guy named Don Praisner in the back right.
Don Praisner with his grandkids from left to right: Camden, Madison (in Don's arms), Rachel (in front), and Kaitlin.
Council District 4 Special Election -- Latest News
The 3 o'clock count was just over 2500 Dems. That means the turnout is just under 5% of the 58,000 Registered Dems. We have thirty minutes to close of polls. The turnout out here (13-36) and from calls across the district in the post 3:00 PM tally is also very very low. Look at the above picture. It was taken around 4:15PM. It looks like high noon in an old Western. No one was in the parking lot, on the streets, or in the voting booth. The low turnout should favor Don but we have only a few hours to find out the actual answer.
Update from Delegate Roger Manno
Just got off the phone with Delegate Manno. He told me that the combined Leisure World precincts is 1442 for both parties,. approx. 20% was GOPers. Meaning that 1,100 Democratic voters came from these two precincts. And if turnout is around 4,000 Democrats that this key group will supply over 25% of the total Democratic vote.
Council District 4 Special Election -- Mid Day Report
Above: Wayne Goldstein for Steve Kanstoroom outside of Kennedy HS.
Dear Readers, Adam Pagnucco and I are out for our respective candidates (he is for Navarro and I am for Praisner). I am writing from just outside of Shriver ES in Wheaton (13-36). If there are typos in this report it is because the laptop I am on does not have an anti-glare and it is too sunny outside.
We here are MPW are going to try and give you updates of the special election in District 4, not to be confused with the special election Congressional District 4 that will select the temporary replacement for Al Wynn. We will cover that later.
Anyway the total number of Democratic voters at 10:00 AM, which is the first time all 46 precincts will post how many people have voted, is 992. I don't have the Republican numbers.
The next report will be out at 3:00 PM and it will take awhile for the figures to come in.
But the 10:00 AM is number is extremely low. If the total number of voters is around 60,000 then you are looking at turnout that will not cross 10% for the Dems and probably is closer to 7%. (Most voters will come out after work.) But this race could be won with 2,500 voters.
A low turnout favors Don (Adam and I both agree on that point.) But any group that is able to motivate its base and get them to the polls will win. So expect the Navarro camp to get the teachers (MCEA) and support staff (SEIU) to man the phones and the polls as soon as the schools close.
Here are the Leisure World precinct numbers for 10:00 AM.
The Leisure World I (13-54) had 128 Dems and 30 GOPers.
Leisure World II (13-69) had 65 Dems and 23 GOPers.
Thanks to Mike Benefiel, campaign manager for Pat Ryan, for those numbers.
All of the candidates have been to Leisure World. Sid Kramer, the former County Executive, is also out at Leisure World for Nancy Navarro.
At my precinct, 13-36 (Shriver ES), which is one of the most heavily Hispanic preincts in the county. The turnout at 10:00 AM was 11 Dems and 10 GOPers. This is a strong Dem preinct so having more Republicans than Democrats is amazing. It is 65 total voters (regardless of party) at 2:35PM.
Above: Ana Maria Delgado for Nancy Navarro and Delegate Al Carr, neutral, outside of Wheaton HS (13-28).
Update:
Most of the stories you get now are more the personal rather than hard news. Here's one that I think is telling. A friend of mine, Genie Moreno, voted at Good Hope Rec Center (5-1) at 7:05 AM this morning and the chief election judge clapped and cheered because she was the first voter.
