One exciting aspect of redistricting this year is that almost anyone can play. Here is hurriedly drawn-up plan that shows one of many possible redistricting scenarios for 2012.
This map provides an extremely rough example of what a congressional redistricting plan with seven Democratic-leaning districts might look like. Extending the Sixth into Montgomery, where it used to go back in the 1980s when I lived in Beverly Byron's district, would switch it from a Republican to Democratic leaning district. All of the other six current Democratic districts continue to lean Democratic.
This map preserves the Fourth and Seventh as black-majority districts. The Fourth swaps territory in Montgomery for Anne Arundel. The Seventh no longer extends into Howard County--placed entirely in a substantially reworked Third District here--but takes in more of Baltimore County.
The First is very safe for Republicans by taking in strong Republican territory along the Mason-Dixon line as well as the Eastern Shore. The most severe changes likely would occur in the Baltimore area districts, particularly the Second and the Third Districts.
Note that the populations are only roughly, not perfectly equal. Also, the addresses of the incumbents (and other serious potential contenders) were unknown when this was drawn so to the extent that people are moved in or out of their current district the impact was unintended.
Monday, March 14, 2011
Seven Democratic Districts?
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
We're in the Money. . .
Things may be tough but they are way tougher in other states. Maryland is one of five states where household median income rose over the past decade and you'll notice that we're the wealthiest of those five states. So much for the argument that Democrats have ruined Maryland--we're the most successful state in the country. Full story from the Economist (account may be needed to read the story).
Monday, October 11, 2010
Women Dominate Maryland Primaries
Candidates and political consultants have known for a long time that women outvote men in Maryland elections. But data released by the State Board of Elections (SBE) on last month’s primaries show just how important that phenomenon is.
SBE’s 2010 election page does not include a turnout section yet, but its press room does have stats on election day and early voter turnout. One of SBE’s breakdowns lists primary turnout by gender. Here are the raw counts by county.
And here are the percentages of primary voters who were women.
In every county, women were a majority of primary voters. This is primarily due to female dominance of Democratic primaries, in which they accounted for 59% of voters. But women have near parity in the Republican Party too, where they accounted for 49% of voters.
One more fact stands out. Female vote percentages were highest in Maryland’s four largest jurisdictions. They are:
Baltimore City: 60.8%
Prince George’s: 59.3%
Montgomery: 56.0%
Baltimore County: 55.6%
These four jurisdictions accounted for 52% of all primary voters last month. And they accounted for 56% of all votes in the 2006 general election.
Meet the bosses of Free State politics, folks: Maryland women!
Friday, March 12, 2010
Where Do the Counties Rank on Returns from the State?
Ten-year data comparing state aid to state taxes paid by county illustrate a truth we all know: Maryland is a state of donors and recipients. Here are who’s giving and who’s getting.
Page 107 of last year’s Overview of Maryland Local Governments shows the amount of state aid and payments-on-behalf (like teacher pensions) per dollar of state taxes paid for each of the state’s 24 jurisdictions. We reproduce it below.
Over the FY97-06 period, Montgomery County received 15-19 cents in aid and payments-on-behalf for every dollar in taxes its residents paid to the state. Only Worcester (11-13 cents) and Talbot (11-14 cents) received less. The biggest recipients were Somerset (91-114 cents), Caroline (91-107 cents) and Baltimore City (81-108 cents). The state average was 34-40 cents over the ten-year period.
There is a major omission from the above data: transportation spending. Of the $9.1 billion six-year Consolidated Transportation Program, the ICC accounts for $2.6 billion and WMATA will receive $658 million in debt service and $1.3 billion in construction spending and equipment. (A lot of the above funds are federal.) But the ICC and Metro serve many non-Montgomery residents and their inclusion would not come close to eradicating Montgomery’s status as a donor county.
Why does Montgomery do so poorly? We explored this issue in 2008’s MoCo: Not as Rich as You Think series. On the one hand, Montgomery residents need higher salaries to pay for higher costs for gasoline and real estate. The state’s income tax brackets, which treat income equally in every jurisdiction without regard for costs, pinch Montgomery’s residents harder than elsewhere. And on the other hand, most of Maryland’s aid is driven by wealth formulas that depend heavily on real estate values. High home prices in Montgomery may mean more home equity for some, but they also mean higher mortgage payments. In 2006, Montgomery mortgage holders paid an average $2,285 per month, the highest in the state.
The net effect of the system is to drain Montgomery residents of both tax dollars and aid. High nominal salaries are needed for high real estate and fuel prices, which ripple through to increase other costs in the county. Uniform state income tax brackets capture disproportionate amounts of that income. High home prices lead to greater wealth calculations in state formulas, which reduce state aid. And the county government must react by raising its property taxes to make up for relatively low state aid levels.
Anyone up for moving to Crisfield?
Friday, February 12, 2010
Convention Fever
By Eric Luedtke.
The Baltimore Sun ran an article last week mentioning a little known fact: this fall, as required in our state constitution, a question will appear on the ballot asking voters if they want to hold a convention to revise said constitution. It’s really a testament to the people who wrote the current Maryland Constitution in 1867 that they would require such a thing. Even the Constitution of the United States, while it does allow for the never-used possibility of calling a constitutional convention, does not require the government to check in with voters periodically and see if they want things changed.
Predictably, some of the first people who have come out in favor of a convention are perched precariously on the right wing of state politics. One of their arguments in favor of a convention is, and I’m not kidding you here, the need to ban speed cameras. Yes, speed cameras, which somehow violate our fundamental and inalienable rights. Because American patriots fought, bled, and died on the fields of Bunker Hill and Brooklyn so that I could drive as fast as I want. Really, it’s true.
If you sense disgust in my writing, you aren’t imagining it.
I guess I shouldn’t be surprised, as right now in state politics the right wing is largely relegated to joke status, even by many Republicans. And I guess that to them, any opportunity for change might seem like an opportunity to gain some measure of power. But what’s sad is that if the debate about this ballot question becomes dominated by such voices, it’s possible that legitimate questions of government which should be debated won’t be. There are serious questions we should be asking ourselves about how we govern our state, real issues that might need to be addressed, and should at least be mulled over.
In the normal course of things, we sometimes gloss over these issues. Our leaders shrug their shoulders and go on with the daily tasks of governance, because things are the way they are and it’s no use wishing they were different. And the rest of us, the general citizenry, when we aren’t so disgusted by the latest scandal that we’ve tuned out politics entirely, rarely take the time to think about changing things. It’s too much work, and we have a lot of other things that take up our time.
So this ballot question provides us an opportunity to ask some fundamental questions about how we run our state. Personally, I think a convention is a good idea, and I’ll be voting for it, if only because I believe that any democracy should periodically look inward, reflect on how it runs, and make the necessary changes to run more smoothly. But whether the ballot question passes or not, I hope that it inspires a debate about some of the questions below:
1. Should we have such a powerful executive?
I’m referring here to the office of Governor, not to any current or former holder of that office. Maryland has one of the most powerful executive branches in the state. The Governor has tremendous control over the budget, which can’t be added to by the legislature. He also, as a member of the Board of Public Works, has tremendous power to cut the budget with virtually no input from elected legislators. Should one man or woman have that much power?
2. Should the legislature be more representative?
Over time, as a result of population growth, a legislature with a set number of seats will naturally see an increase in the population of each district. If we presume that an ideal democracy is one in which a legislator is able to effectively communicate with their constituents, then we really have to question whether our current legislature is able to do that. Why? In 1972, when the current number of seats in the legislature was created by constitutional amendment, there were approximately 85,000 people in each district. Today, there are approximately 120,000. That’s a lot of people for any legislator to get to know. A constitutional convention could divide each Senatorial district into three separate single-member House districts, so that each member of the House would represent about 40,000 people. Conveniently, this would also eliminate the possibility of a district’s delegation being dominated by one part of that district.
3. Should the legislature be year-round?
The vast majority of our legislators are people who are able to take a three month leave of absence from their normal jobs and still feed their families. This is not the position of the average Marylander, to say the least. I also think it does a disservice to the citizens of Maryland that the debate over so many bills ends up being rushed because of the short duration of our legislative session.
4. How should apportionment happen?
I’m a pretty partisan guy, but even more than I believe in the Democratic Party, I believe in democracy. State legislative districts should be drawn to be representative of regions, of towns, of the people therein. They should not be drawn for partisan ends, or to suit the whims of an incumbent. Now, in the case of Congressional redistricting, I would never say this, because the Republican Party in states like Texas has demonstrated time and again that they will manipulate redistricting to achieve their own partisan aims. But in the state of Maryland, where we have a single apportionment entity, I think it’s important to have a neutral process.
5. Should judicial elections of any kind exist?
Judges should not be subject to the winds and whims of politics, period. Ending any kind of judicial elections is not a perfect guarantee of this. I would argue, for example, that the recent Supreme Court campaign finance decision was a baldly partisan move, and those bunch are appointed rather than elected. But judicial elections allow the possibility of our judicial system becoming corrupted, and should be eliminated entirely.
6. Should we vote differently?
If you’ve never heard of instant runoff voting, check it out. This posting’s too long already, so try google. I’m not sold on it, but it’s an intriguing idea.
7. What really belongs in the constitution anyway?
Do we really need Article XI-D: Port Development in the City of Baltimore? Do we really need Article XIX: Video Lottery Terminals? These belong in our state code, not in the constitution. Minor issue, I know, but it doesn’t exactly make us look good when held up against, say, the first amendment.
Monday, January 25, 2010
What does Massachusetts Mean for Maryland?
The Republicans’ win in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election has upended the nation’s capital. But what does it mean for Maryland? We convened a virtual roundtable of our savviest political spies, all of whom are knowledgeable Democrats, and their answers were brutally honest. In some cases, they were just plain brutal.
Party Activist:
Ehrlich is running. Kratovil is dead and Bartlett is sailing to reelection. Also, the long term repercussions for Van Hollen are very bad. He got into this cycle thinking it would be a small loss and now they may lose the House. If that happens, his leadership ambitions could be crippled.
Strategist:
People are angry - across the country and in Maryland. They are worried about their jobs, providing for their families and living the quality of life that they’ve become accustomed too. I don’t think it means much for O’Malley, frankly. He is a good, hard campaigner and can raise the money to win. The problem is for our down ticket races, where the public has bought into the national hype of bloated government that overspends and has forgotten that their schools, community centers, roads and parks are funded by government. State government is the redheaded stepchild because people don’t know what State government does for them. People forget that the State provides significant funding for schools and roads and hospitals - the services that support their everyday lives and their communities.
In the end, the Tea Party candidates are a referendum on the Republican Party. The Republicans aren’t providing the Tea Partiers with what they want and need in a political party, so they have become a spin-off. No Tea Party member is a liberal that would vote for a Democrat. Yet, the Republican Party is attempting to co-opt their anger in order to advance their own political agenda and, by inference, continue the two-party system - essentially the opposite of the roots of the Tea Party movement. (A side note - the head of Maryland AFP is a former Ehrlich campaign guy.)
So, many Senators, Delegates, County Commissioners and Council Members will have more difficult races because (1) people assign the hype of federal big government and national overspending to all Democrats by inference, regardless of how conservative or liberal they may be and (2) Democrats don’t boil their positions down to soundbites - a great talent of the Republicans - because government is more complicated than soundbites and (3) people have forgotten that government does actually do good things for their families and communities.
But that doesn’t work well in elections.
Elected Official:
Nobody owns their seat.
Elected Official:
It increases the likelihood of Ehrlich jumping into the Governor’s race which, in turn, increases the likelihood of down-ticket, on-the-fence, serious, Republican state legislative candidates jumping into various key races around the state.
Elected Official:
I predict Maryland Democrats will hear the wake-up call from Massachusetts, invest in good polling, and respond to voters more wisely than Coakley did. The big message is, don’t take the voters for granted. Get out there, work hard, let them see you, let them know you want to earn their support. Scott Brown was right when he said the Senate seat was “the people's seat.”
Elected Official:
I’ll be honest, I really don’t know what it means for Maryland other than it gives the Republican Party serious hope. We Democrats have explained away New Jersey, we explained away Virginia, and we will explain away Massachusetts. At some point, we are going to have to address how the national scene has changed politically after just 14 months and realize Maryland isn’t immune from voter backlash about the economy. I believe people really expected the recession to be in our rear view mirror by now and the economy would be on its way back. Instead, foreclosures are still on the rise, jobs are still being eliminated, etc. Other than the stock market, there is no tangible indication that we are on track to be out of this anytime soon. Somebody has to pay a political price for this and the tab may not have been settled yet.
Party Activist:
Voters are very angry and don’t like incumbents, and they will vote for a good-looking challenger who works hard and asks sincerely for their vote, and such a challenger will have a chance if the Democrat is too nonchalant and does not ask the voters for their vote and show she/he deserves it.
I don’t see any such challenger from the Republicans either in the County or the state. Nor do I see any incumbent Democrats who are in danger of losing to Republicans. This is due not only from the Democratic primacy in the registrations, but also from the fact that the state, while suffering considerable unemployment, is not as bad as Mass. on the loss of jobs.
There may be a few Dems in the County who could lose to Democratic challengers if they don’t campaign well and hard, but that had nothing to do with the Massachusetts election.
Elected Official:
1. Voters are pissed, and are looking to punish their government for its failure to turn things around. This may be the "throw the bums out" cycle that actually throws the bums out. I don't view it as partisan necessarily. But it doesn't help that Dems are in control.
2. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would have lost in Massachusetts too.
3. A little frontal nudity in your past doesn't hurt.
Elected Official:
The Massaschusetts election impact on Maryland is going to be smaller than its impact on the nation. The bottom line is that all elections are referenda on the unemployment rate. This upcoming election could be very much like the 1982 election. If Obama passes health reform (i.e. if the House is smart enough to pass the Senate bill and fix the parts they don’t like with subsequent legislation) then the president will go into his first mid-term with high unemployment. Of course like Ronald Reagan, he will have also accomplished his greatest political objective. Like Reagan, he will lose seats but not his majorities. In Maryland, which has an unemployment rate 3% lower than the nation, it means Martin will win big and we’ll reelect everyone.
On the other hand, if the House refuses to pass the Senate Health bill then NO HEALTH LEGISLATION WILL PASS DURING OUR LIFETIMES! With high unemployment and nothing to show for ourselves the election could be just like 1994. In that case a competent Governor like O’Malley would still win (Parris squeaked out a victory in ‘94 and he was not an incumbent) but we would lose seats in the legislature (although fewer than in 1994).
Strategist:
Maryland Democrats should feel uneasy. The electorate is angry – whether it’s jobs, overreaching by Congressional Dems, taxes, or just a carryover from the Bush years. We may very well see a “throw the bums out” mentality come the primary and general elections.
In addition to the “national” issues, Marylanders will be angry at what they see as government’s inability to solve basic problems: bursting water pipes and congested roads are just two examples.
Moreover, Brown’s win in Massachusetts gives hope to the Maryland GOP.
This doesn’t necessarily spell disaster. There’s plenty of time between now and the elections, and lots can change. Only time will tell.
Elected Official:
It’s the economy stupid! Voters are mad as hell and they are not going to take it any more. The message is that people are really hurting. They are tired of reading in the paper that the economy is improving. Household budgets have been hit hard and things are not improving. I was at an event for Congresswoman Donna Edwards over the weekend and a woman came in off the street not intending on participating in the discussion. She came over to tell the congresswoman that she has been unemployed for two years. She has a master's degree in psychology. When her unemployment ran out she found a part-time job at a local retail store. She makes just enough to put her over the poverty line which means she does not qualify for Medicaid benefits. She just became homeless. This is one story out of many thousands that gets repeated day after day. If the Governor, state lawmakers and local elected officials do not listen carefully to the pain that people are feeling I think that Maryland is one election away from repeating the Massachusetts debacle. When the coalition that Democrats have always depended on to win - union members, people of color, women and young voters - stay at home on Election Day, the message to state and local Democrats is that the people have no patience for more pain.
Karen Britto, Chairwoman, Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee:
The Massachusetts election does not mean anything significant for Maryland. In general, a special election (which has a short-life in terms of campaigning) does not afford an opportunity to run a long-term get-out-the-vote operation that includes extensive canvassing, phoning and idenfication of Democatic voters. This type of GOTV is something where Maryland Democrats possess a great deal of expertise.
Maryland has already begun the campaign process and will be able to run an effective get-out-the-vote operation -- while simultaneously dispelling any myths that arise (similar to the myths about health care and climate change that were touted by the Republicans in Massachusetts).
Maryland Democrats have anticipated any challenges that could surface in November 2010 and are prepared to meet those issues and prevail over them.
David Lublin, MPW Founder and Professor, Department of Government, American University:
The Democrats had a glorious year in 2006 when anger at the Republicans and Bush was running high. Now health care reform appears on the verge of failure and unemployment is unlikely to come down enough to save the Democrats in 2010. Republicans will feel emboldened and motivated while Democrats will be demoralized and demotivated to vote by their inability to capitalize sufficiently on their thumping congressional majorities. In Maryland, Rep. Kratovil will be in deep trouble as he has not been in office long enough to insulate himself against a Republican tide showing any real strength.
The Democrats may suffer losses in the Assembly though that depends on four things: (1) the thin Republican ability to find decent state legislative candidates, (2) a good candidate for governor, (3) a gubernatorial candidate who knows how to mobilize state issues as even a pro-Republican mood is probably not enough Democratic-tilting Maryland, and (4) money to back Republican candidates. Past and future taxes will be a Republican issue. Any losses in the Maryland Senate undermine Sen. President Mike Miller since it is conservative, rather than liberal, Democrats who will go down and it diminishes his image as a protector of Senate Democrats.
In Montgomery, the yearning for new taxes has ceased as signaled by the narrow passage of the Ficker Amendment as well as the increases in a variety of county and state fees within memory. The need to raise the county property tax to counter the decline in valuations will accentuate this mood. Even in Democratic primaries, it will be difficult to attack incumbent candidates for being insufficiently progressive for not spending/taxing enough, especially if core priorities remain somewhat protected compared to elsewhere in the Union. At this point, it seems too early to tell whether pro-business/Chamber Democrats will benefit from the desire for more money in the till even if many still hold the business community responsible for promoting policies that landed us in this mess.
Our Take:
The Republicans still have an uphill battle towards a statewide victory because they cannot compete in Baltimore City or Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, which are three of the four biggest jurisdictions in Maryland. Neither the Tea Parties nor the Massachusetts special election changes that fact. But the Democrats’ voter registration edge will have a diminished effect on voting if some Democrats stay home and a quarter or more of those who vote go for the GOP.
Resource deployment decisions will change. In a more friendly environment, the Democrats could stretch their goals and try for wins in GOP territory, with Frank Kratovil’s 2008 victory being the ultimate example. But now they will have to play defense to protect vulnerable Senate and House seats in swing districts. This phenomenon will even filter down into safe Democratic districts as the party leaders will not have the luxury of protecting their incumbents from primary challenges. That means that Senators Jennie Forehand, Nancy King and Mike Lenett will likely be on their own against potential or actual opponents.
Friday, October 09, 2009
Unemployment Explodes in Maryland’s Big Seven
Last week, we offered our readers a snapshot of current unemployment in each of Maryland’s twenty-four jurisdictions, as well as some of its biggest cities. Today, we burrow deeper into historical unemployment data for the state’s Big Seven: Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Frederick, Howard, Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties. The results should send a shudder down the spine of every politician in those areas and beyond.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks the monthly unemployment rate in every U.S. county as far back as January 1990. We obtained that information for each of the Big Seven, as well as the state as a whole. We then averaged the unemployment rates in each of the last three recessions as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Nationally, the U.S. has had recessions from July 1990 to March 1991, March 2001 to November 2001 and December 2007 on. Below are the average unemployment rates in each of the Big Seven for the entire period, the 1990-1991 recession, the 2001 recession, the first 13 months of the current recession and the first six months of 2009.
As measured by the unemployment rate, the 1990-91 recession was significantly worse than the 2001 or 2007-2008 recessions in Baltimore City and Anne Arundel, Baltimore and Frederick Counties. As a matter of fact, for all of the Big Seven except Montgomery, the 2001 and 2007-2008 unemployment rates did not exceed their twenty-year averages. But the unemployment rates in the first six months of 2009 jumped dramatically for every one of them, as well as the state as a whole. This year will go down as the one of the worst ever in Maryland.
The sudden skyrocketing of unemployment has not had a substantial impact on the last state poll. But the ugly economy has no doubt been a factor in the Tea Parties, the health care town halls and reaction to scandals like Delegate Jon Cardin’s ill-fated marriage proposal. The Republican Party is probably too weak to pick up more than a handful of seats in each chamber. But the economic cataclysm may have increased the danger to more than a few incumbents in volatile districts, including ones facing primary challenges.
Below are unemployment rate charts for each of the Big Seven from January 1990 through June 2009, as well as unemployment in the state as a whole.
Monday, September 28, 2009
Snapshot: Unemployment in Maryland
Maryland has a lower unemployment rate than the U.S. average, but the regions of the state are faring differently. If you live in Baltimore City, on the Eastern Shore or in Western Maryland, you are much more likely to be unemployed than if you live in Central or Southern Maryland. Following are average unemployment rates for jurisdictions across the state in 2008 and the first six months of 2009 from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Friday, August 28, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Eight
This series has easily been the most ambitious collection of essays we have ever attempted on Maryland Politics Watch. And all of our data points to one conclusion: the economic fate of Maryland depends on Montgomery County. And the economic competitiveness of Montgomery County depends on the quality of its public schools. That has to be a central priority for state policymakers in writing future budgets.
Consider the following facts:
In Part Two, we learned that Montgomery County accounts for one-fifth of the state’s employment and tax receipts, one-fourth of its personal income and one-third of its business profit. That last factor is especially important because business profit is necessary for job creation.
In Part Three, we learned that Montgomery County has trailed its chief competitor, Fairfax County, on every important economic growth measure over the last 25 years.
In Part Four, we learned that Montgomery County has higher tax rates in nearly all major categories except property than Fairfax.
In Part Five, we examined the close degree of competitiveness between Montgomery’s and Fairfax’s public schools.
In Part Six, our commentators agreed that the quality of the schools is necessary for attracting residents and jobs to Montgomery.
In Part Seven, we learned that the state’s aid to MCPS ranks third from the bottom among Maryland’s 24 jurisdictions in per pupil terms. Geographic Cost of Education Index (GCEI) spending, which benefits Montgomery, is a tiny part of the total aid budget. The state’s coverage of teacher pension obligations is the one large investment that disproportionately helps Montgomery.
All of these factors are linked. Montgomery’s economic competitiveness, which is critical to the well-being of the entire state, is dependent on its public schools. If the General Assembly considers cuts in aid and teacher pension funding that have disparate impacts on Montgomery next year, they are not just damaging one county. They are damaging the Economic Engine of Maryland. And if that engine breaks down, every resident of the Free State is going to suffer in the long run.
Lords of Annapolis, beware.
Thursday, August 27, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Seven
Montgomery County, the economic engine of Maryland, depends on its public schools to compete with Fairfax County. How much does the state contribute to Montgomery’s schools?
In absolute terms, the state contributes quite a bit to Montgomery County’s schools – over a half-billion dollars in direct aid in the last fiscal year. But in relative terms, the state’s investment is quite modest. Consider the following chart comparing the state’s per-pupil aid to public schools by county in FY 2009:
The above data illustrates that the state spent $3,943 per pupil in aid to MCPS in the last fiscal year. That ranks third from the bottom among the state’s 24 jurisdictions and is only 60% of the state average. MCPS aid accounts for only 10% of the state’s school aid despite the fact that Montgomery County has one-sixth of the state’s population. That is largely driven by a wealth formula that steers money away from “wealthy” school districts. One effect of the wealth formula is that MCPS derived just 19.9% of its budget in FY 2009 from state aid. Prince George’s County schools received 54.9% of their budget from the state.
What of the Geographic Cost of Education Index (GCEI), a state formula that gives more aid to school districts with a higher cost of education? The chart below shows (among other things) the amount of GCEI funding allocated by county in FY 2009:
For all its recent attention in the media, GCEI funding is a very small part of state aid to schools. In FY 2009, the state spent $5.3 billion on school aid. Only $75.8 million of that came from the GCEI program. Furthermore, Prince George’s County (at $23.6 million) was the biggest beneficiary of GCEI, not Montgomery (at $18.4 million). Baltimore City, by far the biggest recipient of state school aid in per-pupil terms, receives $13.0 million from GCEI.
The state does make one substantial school investment that disproportionately benefits Montgomery County: covering the cost of teacher pensions. Last September, we published the pension costs in both absolute and per capita terms by county. Montgomery led the state in total pension obligation spending ($131 million) and was third in per-capita terms behind Howard and Calvert Counties.
The reason the state spends more on Montgomery’s teacher pensions than on any other county is that Montgomery pays its teachers more than elsewhere in Maryland. Montgomery does that because of its high cost of living and its fierce competition for talent with Fairfax and other school systems. Excellence in education costs money. Montgomery figured that out long ago and has been delivering quality schools to its residents for decades.
We will conclude tomorrow.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Six
How important are Montgomery County’s schools to the county’s economy? We asked some of our local leaders and here is what they said.
Valerie Ervin
County Council Member, Chair of the Council’s Education Committee
Former Member, Board of EducationMany people who move to the area make a conscious decision to come to Montgomery County because of the reputation of the Montgomery County Public School System. Most residents are proud of the school system and its tradition of excellence. In the current economic downturn, we cannot afford to be short-sighted about education funding.
Nancy Navarro
The Montgomery County School System helps drive the economic engine of the county and the state because its reputation for excellence translates into higher property values and its brand draws both residents and businesses to the county. The quality of the school system is especially important for middle class families who want to give their children the best education possible in a public school setting.
When competing for state dollars, Montgomery County is often portrayed as the city on the hill, where there are no challenges or issues affecting residents. Montgomery County must begin to describe the variety of issues impacting its schools and the lives of its children—we are talking about everything from students arriving at the school house door with interrupted educations, those who cannot speak English, and even those who are transferring from private to public schools because their parents can no longer carry the financial burden.
We need to continue to advocate for full funding for our schools to retain and keep our outstanding teachers, who work tirelessly for our students, and to fund school construction projects to maintain class size. Now is not the time to retreat from our obligations. As one of the main drivers of Maryland’s economic engine, the state has a stake in our continued success. Turning back the clock now hurts all of us.
County Council Member
Former President, Board of EducationIt is important that the rest of the state understands that, like County Executive Ike Leggett likes to say, Montgomery County is not an ATM machine to be accessed at will. It is important for the state to understand that an economically viable Montgomery County is in the best interest of the state as a whole. Montgomery County Public Schools is in turn the crown jewel of our county; our economic fortunes are intricately tied to the fortunes of MCPS. A distressed school system spells doom for our economy as we witness the flight of individuals, families and businesses to more education friendly jurisdictions like Fairfax County. This would affect local revenues and in turn would affect the state's collection from Montgomery County. In summary, a demand that the state maintains its fiscal obligation to Montgomery County is not self-serving - it is the right thing to do and the smart thing to do in the interest of the state of Maryland.
George Leventhal
County Council MemberI think the generally-perceived high quality of Montgomery County schools help to make the county very competitive if businesses are considering locating here versus Prince George’s County or the District of Columbia. Versus Fairfax County, not so much. Fairfax County also has a very strong school system. I personally prefer living in Montgomery County, but I am not confident that statistics would support the assertion that it is more attractive to locate a business here than Fairfax County.
Finally, one of our most intelligent (and most secretive) informants had this to say:
Montgomery elected officials and residents need to consider very carefully whether being competitive with Fairfax in economic development is something that we want. There are certainly benefits to having a healthy tax base and job base. On the other hand, more business can translate to more traffic and construction of more housing, and those things are not popular. We seem to have contradictory impulses when it comes to attracting business. Our political culture often rewards those who are hostile to business. We may have taken for granted that Montgomery County will always be attractive to investors, and we may find that is not as true as we once thought. In the current constrained economic environment, we are finding out what “slow growth” really feels like.Both Maryland and Montgomery County are unfriendly to business interests. It’s not just that the county and state are high tax and stiff regulatory environments; those are bad enough. Worse, there is a prevailing air that business, in and of itself, is inherently suspect. In a highly regulated environment, decision-making is in the hands of a relative few, a small number of politicians and regulators. There is a wrongheaded assumption that government, simply because of who and what it is, will automatically make the best, fairest decision on behalf of the people. The more regulated an environment is, and the more decision-making is concentrated in the hands of a few, the more political the process is apt to be.
Montgomery County is the economic engine of Maryland, and part of what enables that engine to keep up with Fairfax is the quality of our public schools. In Part Seven, we will look at how the state contributes to Montgomery’s schools.
Two things keep Maryland and Montgomery County afloat: federal largesse, due to proximity to the Nation’s Capital and research funding (NIH, Hopkins, FDA, etc), and education. There is nothing else to fall back on. We’re a two-legged stool. The education level of the workforce in this area is very high and is indeed an asset to business. If that is damaged, we’re in deep trouble. Suddenly, Maryland becomes even less competitive than it already is against Virginia and others with a more friendly business environment. We’re teetering on the brink. The county and state already have damaged the business environment, and without educational support, people will rightly ask: Why should I go to an area with high cost and traffic congestion and high regulation, when there are other areas, like North Carolina, with a lower cost of living, less traffic and more openness and creativity? We need to stop thinking we’re so much smarter than everyone else and start competing more effectively.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Five
Montgomery County and Fairfax County, the economic engines of their respective states, have much in common. One characteristic they share is excellent schools.
Residents of Montgomery and Fairfax are virtually obsessed with their school systems. Most parents do whatever they can to get their kids into the best schools with the best programs and the best teachers. Both counties use their schools as selling points for new residents and new businesses. And the sales pitch is warranted because these two counties have some of the best public schools in America.
Consider the following benchmarks:
Newsweek Top 100 High School Ranks, 2008
Fairfax
55. Langley, McLean, VA
59. George Mason, Falls Church, VA
74. W.T. Woodson, Fairfax, VA
95. Lake Braddock, Burke, VA
99. McLean, McLean, VA
Montgomery
32. Richard Montgomery, Rockville, MD
60. Wootton, Rockville, MD
64. Bethesda-Chevy Chase, Bethesda, MD
69. Walt Whitman, Bethesda, MD
76. Walter Johnson, Bethesda, MD
98. Winston Churchill, Potomac, MD
SAT Scores, Class of 2008
Fairfax: Critical Reading 547, Math 565, Writing 542, Total 1654
Montgomery: Critical Reading 532, Math 549, Writing 536, Total 1616
Composite ACT Scores, Class of 2008
Fairfax: 23.7
Montgomery: 23.8
Total Public Schools Budget, FY 2009
Fairfax: $2,685,250,588
Montgomery: $2,543,224,621
Cost per Pupil, FY 2009
Fairfax: $13,340
Montgomery: $15,252
Percent of Graduates Continuing Education, FY 2009
Fairfax: 91.2%
Montgomery: 92.6%
Dropout Rate, FY 2009
Fairfax: 1.67%
Montgomery: 2.9%
Montgomery may not be able to compete with Fairfax on low tax rates, but it can and does compete very well on the basis of school quality. In fact, Montgomery’s high level of educational investment is one of the best things it can offer the business community. We asked a number of our leaders about the importance of the schools in attracting business. We’ll find out what they had to say in Part Six.
Monday, August 24, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Four
Montgomery County and Fairfax County are the economic engines of their respective states. Over the last 25 years, Fairfax has passed Montgomery on nearly every economic measure. But over the last 5 years, Montgomery has fared better. Today we look at one aspect of how the two counties compete: their relative tax rates.
One fact that is not commonly acknowledged is that Montgomery charges lower property tax rates than Fairfax. Here are the rates in effect during Fiscal Year 2009:
While Montgomery’s rates are lower, the gap narrows when residential rates are compared to home values. During the 2005-07 period, Montgomery charged 0.7% of its median home value in taxes while Fairfax charged 0.8%. Few homeowners would notice such a tiny difference.
But the primary reason Montgomery’s property tax rates are lower than those in Fairfax is that Montgomery’s revenue base is much more diverse. For example, Fairfax receives no income tax. Here are a variety of other tax rates for Fiscal Year 2009:
On every other measure, Fairfax residents and businesses pay lower taxes than their counterparts in Montgomery. The biggest gap is in income tax rates, especially at the top. We do not have the comparative tax burden between the two counties, but on the state level Maryland (ranked 4th in the nation by the Tax Foundation) far exceeds Virginia (ranked 18th). There is no way that Montgomery County, a high-tax county in a high-tax state, can compete with Fairfax on the basis of low taxes.
But there is one factor on which Montgomery is intensely competitive with Fairfax: the quality of the public schools. We’ll examine this in more detail in Part Five.
Friday, August 21, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Three
In Part Two, we examined Montgomery County’s role in the Maryland’s economy. The county accounts for one-fifth of the state’s employment, one-fourth of its personal income and one-third of its business profit. Those factors make the health of the county’s economy a key component of the health of the state’s economy. But Montgomery County is not invulnerable. It has a direct competitor right across the Potomac: Fairfax County, Virginia.
In many ways, Montgomery and Fairfax are twins. Both have close to a million people. Both have large private sectors fueled by substantial federal government spending. Both have populations that are increasingly diversifying. Both have quality schools. And both are economic engines for their states.
But Fairfax has been outcompeting Montgomery from an economic perspective for a long time. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, here are how the two counties stack up on seven economic indicators for the most recent 25-year period available (1971-2006):
Fairfax’s per capita personal income has grown 24% faster than Montgomery’s over the last 25 years. Fairfax’s population, total personal income and dividends, interest and rent income have grown nearly 50% faster than Montgomery’s. Fairfax’s employment, wages and salaries and proprietor income have grown roughly 2.5 times as fast as Montgomery’s. In 1971, Montgomery led on every one of these seven measures over Fairfax. In 2006, Fairfax led on six of seven.
But the story is not quite that simple. Over the most recent five-year period, Montgomery has competed much better with Fairfax. Here are our benchmarks between 2001 and 2006:
During this period, Montgomery beat Fairfax on four growth measures (population, personal income, dividends, interest and rent and proprietor income), trailed on two (employment and wages and salaries) and virtually tied on one (per capita personal income). This data does not prove that Montgomery has turned the corner. But it does show that Montgomery is still capable of competing with Fairfax in generating economic opportunity for its residents. And that provides hope for both Montgomery and the state it supports.
In Part Four, we’ll look at one aspect of how Montgomery and Fairfax match up: their comparative tax rates.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part Two
Montgomery County is often called the “economic engine” of Maryland. But how important is it to the state’s economy? Let’s find out.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis provides the following estimates of population and employment by Maryland county in 2006:
So Montgomery accounts for 16.5% of the state’s population and 19.3% of its employment. This is significant, although perhaps not dominant. But this is only one aspect of the county’s role. Consider personal income and total wages and salaries paid in 2006:
Montgomery accounts for 24.0% of the state’s personal income and 22.7% of its wages and salaries. This far outpaces second-ranked Baltimore County (with 14.6% of personal income) and Baltimore City (14.4% of wages and salaries). But that still understates the county’s impact. Consider dividends, interest, rent and proprietor income in 2006:
Montgomery accounts for one-third of all business income – dividends, interest, rent and proprietor income – in the state. That is roughly double the business income created in runner-up Baltimore County and more than Anne Arundel, Carroll, Frederick, Harford, Howard and Prince George’s Counties combined.
The state’s tax base benefits immensely by the inclusion of Montgomery County. Shown below are income and sales tax receipts by county for FY07, the most recent complete year available. These two sources constitute approximately 80% of the state’s general fund revenues.
Montgomery accounts for 25.8% of the state’s income tax receipts, 13.0% of its sales tax receipts and 21.2% of combined receipts in both categories. (Corporate income taxes are not included in this data.)
Tax receipts are important, but taxes do not appear out of thin air. They depend on employment, which in turn depends on business profits. The truly critical role Montgomery County plays in the state’s economy is to act as its principal base of profit and job creation. By generating one-fifth of the state’s employment, one-fourth of its personal income and one-third of its business profit, Montgomery’s economic health directly determines the state’s well-being.
But as big and robust as it is, Montgomery County is far from invulnerable. It has a direct competitor across the Potomac River. And its ability to go head-to-head with its powerful rival has a colossal impact on Maryland’s future. More on that in Part Three.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
The Economic Engine of Maryland, Part One
Barry C. Watkins, CEO and president of Fidelity & Trust Bank, 6/10/05:
Montgomery County is a powerful economic engine.Former Governor Robert Ehrlich on Montgomery County, 5/18/02:
It's the economic engine of Maryland.Royce Hanson, Chairman, M-NCPPC, 12/22/08:
The I-270/MD 355 Corridor has become the economic engine of Maryland, helping position Montgomery County for leadership in America’s knowledge-based economy.Senate President Mike Miller on Montgomery County, 6/1/07:
It’s like Never Neverland for other legislators of the state.Senator Rona Kramer (D-14), 9/22/07:
The rest of the state needs to understand that if they make Montgomery County too expensive to live, there are very comfortable alternatives right across the river in Northern Virginia where they have excellent school systems and much lower taxes… We’ve never said we don't want to help the rest of the state, but you can’t hit us so hard that we can no longer function appropriately and think we’ll remain the economic engine for the rest of the state.The term “economic engine” has been used for Montgomery County so often that it has begun to lose its meaning. Many people say it. Few say it with any real purpose. Very few understand why the county has this role. And only a tiny handful are beginning to say in public what is really happening:
This engine is wearing down. And if it breaks, the state will stop moving.
In this series, we connect the dots for you, our readers, the current and future decision-makers of the Free State. How important is the county to the state’s economy? How does it match up against its competitors? How has it performed against them? What does it cost the state to support the county’s efforts to compete? And what happens to Maryland if Montgomery County fails?
We will begin our story in Part Two.
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
It’s Not Just Maryland
Maryland cannot seem to escape its budget nightmare. But as the Governor and the General Assembly struggle through a deficit yet again, voters should keep in mind that we are not alone.
The National Governors Association’s latest Fiscal Survey of States lays out the cratered moonscape of state finances. Here are some of its findings:
On spending:So far, 42 states were forced to reduce enacted budgets in fiscal 2009 by $31.6 billion. This is in stark contrast to the thirteen states that had to reduce their enacted budgets in fiscal 2008 and the three states that reduced their enacted budgets during 2007. During the last fiscal downturn, the peak years of reductions to enacted budgets occurred in fiscal 2002 and fiscal 2003, when thirty-seven states were forced to make mid-year budget reductions totaling $14 billion and $12 billion, respectively. These years of peak cuts occurred after the national economic downturn ended in 2001.
The chart below shows that combined state budget increases are now in negative territory and are at their lowest level in at least 30 years. Maryland had nominal general fund changes of -0.9% in FY 2009 and -3.6% in FY 2010. The 50 states together had nominal general fund changes of -2.2% in FY 2009 and -2.5% in FY 2010.
Thirty-five states assume negative budget growth for fiscal 2010 governors’ recommended general fund budgets, while 30 states are estimating negative growth budgets for fiscal 2009.
On taxes:Recommended net tax and fee changes would result in $23.9 billion in additional revenue based on governors’ recommended fiscal 2010 budgets. For fiscal 2010, 29 states recommend net increases while five states recommend net decreases. This amount well exceeds fiscal 2009, when states recommended $726 million tax and fee increases, as sixteen states recommended net decreases while eleven state recommended net increases.
The chart below shows that combined state tax hikes in FY 2010 will reach a higher level that at any time since at least 1991. The Maryland General Assembly did not enact a net tax increase in FY 2010. The only revenue-raising measure it did enact was a cut in lottery sales agent commissions from 5.5% to 5.0% of ticket sales, which is projected to raise $8.6 million.
The number of states experiencing revenue shortfalls increased in fiscal 2009. Revenues from all sources which include sales, personal income, corporate income and all other taxes and fees exceed expectations in two states, are on target in ten states, and are below expectations in thirty-eight states. This is in contrast to fiscal 2008 when twenty-five states reported that revenue collections exceeded estimates.
On year-end balances:Total balances — ending balances and the amounts in budget stabilization “rainy day” funds — are a crucial tool that states heavily rely on during fiscal downturns and budget shortfalls. Balance levels are one of the indicators of overall state fiscal health.
The map below shows that many states’ rainy-day funds are in far worse condition than ours. Maryland’s year-end balance is projected to be 5.4% of expenditures in FY 2010, close to the 50-state combined balance of 5.3% and better than 29 states.
After reaching a peak in fiscal 2006 at $69 billion or 11.5 percent of expenditures, balances declined in fiscal 2008 to 9.1 percent of expenditures. However, balance levels have fallen significantly during fiscal 2009, as balance level estimates now represent 5.5 percent of expenditures. Balance levels are projected to decrease to 5.3 percent of expenditures based on governors’ recommended fiscal 2010 budgets. While balance levels have fallen from their 2006 highs, they are expected to nearly match their historical average of 5.8 percent of expenditures. Because states recognize that an economic downturn may last for more than one year they are reluctant to deplete balances. This is in part due to concerns that the poor fiscal situation may continue through fiscal 2011.
Here are the tax-hike and spending-cut strategies used by the 50 states in their FY 2010 budgets. We mark those strategies employed by Maryland with an asterisk (*).
Targeted cuts: 30*
Raise revenue (any type): 22*
Reduce local aid: 20*
Layoffs: 17*
Across the board cuts: 16*
Cuts to state employee benefits: 16
Reorganize agencies: 16
Furloughs: 15
Rainy-day fund: 15*
Raise tobacco taxes: 13
Raise motor vehicle-related fees: 12
Raise user fees: 11
Salary reductions: 10*
Raise business-related fees: 9
Raise higher education fees: 7
Raise court-related fees: 6
Raise sales taxes: 6
Raise personal income taxes: 5
Early retirement: 4
Raise alcohol taxes: 4
Gaming/gambling expansion: 2
Privatization: 2
Raise corporate income taxes: 2
Lottery expansion: 1
Other: 24*
So how are our elected leaders doing? Their challenge is probably less severe than many other parts of the country, especially in California, New York and Michigan. Since the 2007 special session, they have for the most part avoided revenue increases. Their strategy in FY 2010 is weighted towards restraining state employee compensation costs and budget cuts. More of both, as well as mounting cuts to local aid, is likely to come.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
A Historical Footnote
By Marc Korman.
After my last post about Chris Van Hollen, it was suggested to me that the reason Van Hollen could not be in the elected leadership of the House Democrats was because Steny Hoyer was already there. Between the Majority Leader representing Maryland and Nancy Pelosi being born here, I was told that Maryland is already heavily represented in the House leadership.
It is true that with Steny Hoyer as Majority Leader and the native Pelosi as Speaker, Maryland seems to be doing well in the Congressional leadership ranks. Have we always had such luck?
The House
The only House of Representatives leadership position mentioned in the Constitution is the Speaker. It is the only leadership position elected by the entire House. The parties tend to unite around one candidate so that whoever wins within the majority party will become Speaker.
Maryland is one of four of the original thirteen states to never have a Speaker representing the state. It is nice that Nancy Pelosi is from Baltimore, but last I checked C-SPAN lists her as (D-CA). We are joined by Rhode Island, Delaware, and New Hampshire in the lackluster category of fighting the revolution and not having a Speaker of the House.
After the Speaker, the other members of the House leadership are elected within their own parties. The top leadership structure of the Democratic Caucus and Republican Conference are the same. Each party has a Leader, known as the Majority or Minority Leader depending on the party’s status, a Whip, a Chair, and a Vice Chair.
Maryland has not fared well in House leadership. The only Leader or Whip, positions that first came about in the late 1890s, Maryland has ever had is Steny Hoyer. There has never been anyone else in any of the top leadership posts representing Maryland. Pelosi served as Minority Leader and Whip as well, but again, she was representing California in Congress.
The Senate
We have fared only slightly better in the Senate. The posts we know of today as Majority and Minority Leader of the Senate, the top leadership posts, developed in the 1920s. No one from Maryland has ever held the position.
Party Whips, the second ranking member of each party in the Senate, actually came about a decade earlier than the leader position. Unfortunately, Maryland has never had one of those either.
Senate President Pro Tempore is the only Senate leadership position listed in the Constitution. The original purpose of the office was to preside over the Senate when the Vice President was away. In the nation’s early years, the Senate President Pro Tempore was picked each time the Vice President was away, so there could be many different Senate Presidents during a single year. In 1890, the Senate began electing Senate Presidents for an entire Congress. Since World War II, it has largely been an honorific position given to the longest serving member of the majority party.
Maryland has had a little luck with this job. John Howard held the post for six days back in November of 1800. Samuel Smith held it for thirteen days in December of 1805. Both Howard and Smith were Senators from Maryland.
Conclusion
Perhaps Chris Van Hollen’s non-Maryland colleagues in the House disagree, but when I hear that our Congressman cannot move up in the House leadership because there are too many Marylanders running the House, my Maryland pride stirs up and I say it is about time!
Sunday, November 02, 2008
NBC's Chuck Todd on Maryland
NBC Political Director Chuck Todd had this to say about the Free State in his election guide:About the only major development here is that the state GOP could lose yet another Republican House seat. Believe it or not, Maryland wasn't always this much of a Democratic state, but it sure is looking like one now. Seven of the eight seats could now be Democrat. And I can't find a Republican for miles that appears to have the statewide juice to break the Democrats’ hold on any of these statewide seats. This is a state where the GOP may need to start from scratch.
How do you go from holding the Governor's office to starting from scratch in just two years?
Thursday, September 25, 2008
MoCo: More Diverse Than You Think
The prior posts in this series have sought to dispel the notion that Montgomery County is universally rich. This post attacks another misconception – that the county is monolithically white. The twin beliefs that Montgomery County is both wealthy and white make it a convenient target for politicians in other parts of the state. Both beliefs are completely wrong.
According to the Census of 2000, Maryland had 5,296,486 residents. Of them, 3.3 million were white non-Hispanic, 1.5 million were black non-Hispanic, 210,000 were Asian non-Hispanic, 104,000 were two or more races and 228,000 were Hispanic (of any race). Foreign-born residents topped half a million. Large percentages of each of the non-white groups lived in Montgomery County. Below we show demographic distributions for the state and its six largest jurisdictions. The column “MoCo Rank” refers to how the county ranks on the number of people in each category when compared to other Maryland counties.
Whites
Montgomery had 16.5% of the state’s total population but only 15.8% of its white population. Even though its total population was 15.8% larger than Baltimore County’s, Montgomery actually had fewer white residents (519,318 vs. 533,980). Montgomery’s white percentage (59.5%) is lower than the state average (62.1%).
Blacks
Montgomery has fewer black residents than Prince George’s County, Baltimore City and Baltimore County. But its black percentage (14.8%) is still higher than the national average (12.1%).
Asians
Forty-seven percent of all Asian residents of Maryland live in Montgomery County. Put another way, more Asians live in Montgomery than in Anne Arundel County, Baltimore City, Baltimore County, Howard County and Prince George’s County combined.
Hispanics
Forty-four percent of all Hispanic residents of Maryland live in Montgomery County. Montgomery’s Hispanic population is nearly equal to the combined Hispanic population of the next five most-populated jurisdictions.
Two or More Races
Again, Montgomery leads the state with 29% of all Maryland multi-racial residents.
Foreign Born
Forty-five percent of all foreign-born residents of Maryland live in Montgomery County, nearly equal to the next five jurisdictions combined. Montgomery leads the state in the number of foreign-born residents from every region of the world.
Non-English Spoken at Home
Forty-one percent of all residents that do not speak English at home live in Montgomery County. The percentages of all state residents who do not speak English who live in Montgomery are highest for Chinese speakers (58%), Arabic speakers (42%), Korean speakers (41%) and Spanish speakers (41%). For each of the eight language groups we examined, Montgomery had more residents than any other jurisdiction in Maryland except for African language speakers (where Prince George’s had a slight lead) and Russian speakers (nearly half of whom lived in Baltimore County).
Again and again, Montgomery County finished first or second (usually first) in terms of the number of minority residents for almost every group we looked at. The data is irrefutable: Montgomery is the most diverse county in Maryland, and possibly one of the most diverse jurisdictions anywhere in the United States.
So dies another myth. And we have killed a number of them recently. In May, we showed how Montgomery County has tremendous income inequality, with the richest neighborhoods enjoying a growing gap with the poorest. In this series, we showed how nominally high incomes in Montgomery are swallowed by high housing and gas prices. We showed one of the consequences of our inability to keep up with the cost of living: foreclosures. And we demonstrated here how Montgomery is far, far more diverse than any other county in Maryland.
We are not all white and wealthy. We are multitudes of different cultures and races, many of whom are struggling to get by just like everyone else.
And it is time for the Lords of Annapolis to relearn everything they think they know about us.
