On the School Board Races

By Laura Berthiaume.

I am not up for election in 2010. Thank goodness. I did not have to campaign in over 50 plus days of 90 degree plus heat, my summer was largely my own, and I can put everything that goes with thinking about running for office into my “decisions to be made next summer” box. Still, I have been following this year’s political races closely, the school board races most closely of all. We all have a lot riding on the primary next Tuesday and on the general election in November, but I submit that the most important races are actually those you will vote on at the end of the ballot. So here are three myths about the Board of Education Races that I would like to dispel (hat tip to the Post’s Five Myths, and yes I limited myself to three instead of five - be glad).

1) Mike Durso isn’t the best candidate for the District 5 seat.

Not so. In fact, he is not only the best candidate for the District 5 seat, he may just be the key to the best future of our schools. Mike was unanimously selected by the rest of the Board to take Nancy Navarro’s seat. Honestly, once he threw his name into the hat, and once we saw him answer our questions, it was no contest. Mike has an intimate knowledge of schools and how they work (or do not work) because he has been in the thick of it for decades. He has been a principal in three jurisdictions: the District of Columbia, Virginia and Maryland. He retired as the principal of Springbrook High School, a “red zone” school, and his work there garnered the respect of both his students and his peers. Perhaps for me, his most sterling recommendation was that unlike many others he was never promoted up (or down, or even fired upwards, as some would have it) to MCPS headquarters during his decade or so in MCPS under the current administration. I figured that meant he probably had a spine, and I was right. His vote on the Pearson contract - basically saying that he saw no reason why he should vote yes on a contract on Tuesday he had just received for review on Sunday - was remarkable. In his year on the Board, he has been a team player when he could, given his frank and informed opinion where it was helpful, and stood up to the administration when he needed to. His insight into the current state of MCPS is unique and irreplaceable.

2) The Washington Post gives independent thought to its school board endorsements.

Apparently not. This Sunday, the Post issued its endorsements in the school board races. If I ever previously thought to myself that certain editors at the Washington Post perhaps just turn to the current Superintendent and say, “Write what you want us to say - we will turn over our editorial space to you,” this Sunday’s endorsements are sure evidence that I have been right to think it. How else to explain the Post started off with a glowing paragraph about the Superintendent’s favorite Board Member, Patricia O’Neill, who is not even in a primary race and is not on your September ballot? How else to explain the Post’s failure to endorse Mike Durso, the person best positioned to guide the next Superintendent through the inner politics of MCPS, to point out where nests are being feathered, empires grown, and wounds are festering in need of healing? Maybe it was that the administration is so very, very ticked off about Mike's Pearson vote? Or maybe it was just that Mike was honest with the Washington Examiner about the fact that the current vote count on renewing the Superintendent's contract was running 6 to 1 against. The fact is, the Post Editorial Board thinks that strong school boards are universally bad (really - I got it from the horse’s mouth). So, I ask you, if the Post does not want you to elect a strong school board that will demand accountability - for taxpayer dollars, for corporate culture, for academic results, for kids’ well-being while at school - what exactly does that say about the candidates the editors did endorse? What does it say that they devoted an entire paragraph to Mrs. O’Neill, while barely giving Shirley Brandman the time of day? That the Carver staff does not particuarly love Ms. Brandman, but they did not have an acceptable alternative to support against her, given that Lyda Astrove, someone who regularly gives them fits, is her opponent?

3) I can skip voting on the school board races.

NO! Reason number one: The next Board of Education not only selects the next Superintendent but also makes sure the selection process goes smoothly and quickly, with no hiccups, intentional or otherwise. The Superintendent of Montgomery County Public Schools is the highest paid public office in Montgomery County - by far - and it is an unelected position. The contract is for four years, so it is darned hard to fire a Superintendent once he or she in office, which means you had better pick a good one when you have the chance. Getting a good Superintendent is the direct result of having a wise and responsible Board of Education. To me, that means that my main goal will be to pick a Superintendent who has the vision to look ten years down the road, with all of the reforms and innovations that occur every day now, and get us to the school system of the future. It is certainly not to pick through a screen of finding someone who will just protect the choices that have been made in the past or to cover up past mistakes or secure a “legacy.” In short, we need a Board that is dedicated to the future, not to the past. We need innovation and flexible thinking, not protection and navel-gazing.

Reason number two: The MCPS is the vast majority of your tax dollars - 57% of this year’s County budget. By the way, your County Council members can’t touch it by line item, only by category. ‘Nuf said.

Vote for Mike Durso.

Laura Berthiaume was elected to the Board of Education in 2008.

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Berthiaume Takes on Weast, Post

In an incredible op-ed in the Washington Post, Board of Education Member Laura Berthiaume publicly calls out both MCPS Superintendent Jerry Weast and the newspaper itself. Here's an excerpt:

In the balance of power between the board of education and the bureaucracy, the superintendent and his staff hold all the cards. They outwit, outlast and outplay. In my experience, the board actually has little to no impact on union contract negotiations: The superintendent and his staff negotiate the contracts. Even if there ever were actual board opposition, it would be met with a fierce, resolute wall of angry staff.

Given that Dr. Weast is the one who negotiated and recommended the contracts, budget and benefits over the past 10 years that are now the subject of so much complaint, is it not hypocritical to excoriate the MCEA for unrealistic salaries and benefits yet praise Dr. Weast and demand that his contract be renewed? Both The Post and the voters should consider this issue carefully this fall.

Various elected officials have shared these sentiments with your author privately, but none have dared to vent them in public. Until now. Whether she is right or wrong, Laura Berthiaume stands out for her guts, her willingness to rock the boat and her - perhaps reckless - honesty.

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What Does the Rockville Mayor Race Mean for the Rest of Us?

We don’t normally scrutinize the meaning of municipal races for county and state races. But Rockville is no ordinary municipality. It is the county seat and home to some of Montgomery’s most prominent players. And Challenger Phyllis Marcuccio’s upset win over incumbent Mayor Susan Hoffmann is a noteworthy event. Is there some message here for the rest of us?

Marcuccio, a two-term City Council Member, ran a populist campaign that knocked off freshman Mayor (and former three-term Council Member) Hoffmann by 313 votes, or five percentage points. Marcuccio was aided by departing Council Member Anne Robbins, 2005 Mayor candidate Brigitta Mullican, Board of Education Member Laura Berthiaume and former Neighborspac leader and 2007 Mayor candidate Drew Powell, who went after Hoffmann’s developer-sourced and out-of-city finances. Hoffmann, who had worked for Doug Duncan’s first County Executive campaign and was hired by him to work at the Silver Spring Regional Services Center, was the candidate of the county’s establishment.

We asked a few of our informants in and near the city what they thought of the implications of Marcuccio’s win for the District 17 Senate race and the county as a whole.

District 17 Senate: Incumbent Jennie Forehand vs. Challenger Cheryl Kagan

Spy #1:

For the D17 race, I think this is good news for Jennie and bad news for Cheryl. The grass roots won tonight. I stopped by parties for Bridget [Newton], Phyllis, and John Britton, and almost all of the opinion leaders and long time activists in Rockville were at one or more of those events. Jennie’s grass roots go deep. D17 is larger than Rockville, but I don’t think Cheryl has any large advantage in Gaithersburg and I don’t think she has a lot of fans among the people I saw tonight.

Spy #2:

Be careful about projecting the defeat of incumbent Hoffmann to portend the defeat of incumbent Forehand... you could just as easily say the victory of the grandmotherly Marcuccio against the feisty, brassy, younger Jewish candidate with a propensity for self-promotion portends Forehand’s victory over Kagan. In any event, I think the electorate in the Democrat-only primary in Garrett Park, Rockville and Gaithersburg next September will be completely different than the nonpartisan Rockville election yesterday.

Spy #3:

If it reflects a broader anti-incumbent sentiment in Rockville, that doesn’t bode well for Forehand next year. On the other hand the two incumbent council members were reelected (though a new candidate got more votes than them).

Spy #4:

Traditionally, municipal elections have had no effect on the legislative elections in District 17.

Montgomery County

Spy #1:

For outside of Rockville, it’s a little harder to draw conclusions. Part of this was a taxpayer backlash at perceived overspending/non-targeted, silly spending. Part of it was a general discomfort with the discord on the city council over you-name-the-issue, but a lot of it was that Susan took developer money and people understood the impact of that. People here like business, they want a thriving town center, but they do not want their neighborhoods destroyed by over-development or too much traffic. So, Nancy Floreen will need to think hard about whether she is going to face the same kind of backlash. I think this looks good for council members who take a fiscally conservative approach and who do not take developer money.

Spy #3:

Whether this means the end for Hoffmann is hard to know. Conventional wisdom is that if she couldn’t even win reelection as mayor, she won’t succeed at running for something else. And she’s no spring chicken. On the other hand, if she wants back in the game, she may consider another office (county council or maybe D17) in 2010 though I think it’s unlikely. And remember, Rockville terms are only two years, so if Phyllis falls short of expectations, Susan could always seek mayor again in 2011, but I think it’s more likely someone more relevant would challenge Phyllis in 2011 if appropriate, like a city council member.

I’d caution that we should be careful not to overstate the facts of a local municipal race and apply them to an entire district or county. It was a Rockville race about Rockville issues. Also, the voting base is influenced much more by Republican and independent voters because there’s no primary vote at the local level. So it’s a different universe of voters than in other races. Voter turnout is also generally much lower than other races.

Spy #5:

Here’s my take on the Rockville mayoral results: the campaign that works harder and smarter wins. That’s the only take-away for District 17, Montgomery County and anywhere else. It wasn’t “throw out the incumbents” because Marcuccio was an incumbent councilmember and the other 2 incumbent councilmembers won re-election.

Incumbents did well in Gaithersburg and Takoma Park, so at the most local level there’s no “throw the bums out” mentality. Bear in mind that it takes time for federal, state and county challenges, particular those of the fiscal variety, to filter down to the municipal level. But I wouldn’t yet conclude that the sentiment doesn’t, or won’t, exist come next primary season, when voters are asked to re-hire or fire those who are more directly involved in service cuts and tax increases. If presented with viable alternatives and the right message, voters may turn out a surprisingly high number of incumbent office holders.

Our Take:

The principal reasons for Hoffmann’s defeat were local issues relevant only to Rockville. Hoffmann had problems. First, the struggles of Rockville Town Center reflected badly on the incumbent, whether fairly or not. The inability to open a supermarket was especially troublesome. Second, Hoffmann’s alliance with City Manager Scott Ullery, whom the council rehired shortly after Hoffmann’s 2007 election, rankled some who were unhappy with Ullery’s performance. Third and most importantly, the incivility on the City Council had reached epic proportions. It is entirely possible that some voters did not maintain a play-by-play on who said what, but instead decided to punish the council’s presiding officer for its embarrassing public conduct. Finally, the fact that Hoffmann’s 2009 vote percentage of 47% was almost identical to her 2007 performance in a three-way race indicates that she did not use two years of incumbency to consolidate her support. She simply did not add to her base.

Hoffmann’s defeat may have an impact on the future of County Council District 3. The incumbent, Phil Andrews, has been in office for three terms and is a good bet to return for a fourth. But Andrews could be seeking higher office in 2014. Hoffmann would have been a strong contender for that seat if she had multiple terms as Mayor under her belt. Her contributor list reads like a who’s-who of Montgomery County politics, including Delegates Luiz Simmons (D-17) and Sheila Hixson (D-20), former Senator Ida Ruben (D-20), former County Executive Sid Kramer, Kensington Mayor Pete Fosselman, Somerset Mayor Jeffrey Slavin and numerous government staffers and lobbyists. If Hoffmann cannot make a comeback, many other people could pop up to make a run for Andrews’ open seat.

The implications for the Senate race are indirect at best. As many of our sources say, a non-partisan municipal election drawing independents and Republicans is a very different animal than a district-wide Democratic primary. And neither Jennie Forehand nor Cheryl Kagan made any public endorsements, though Forehand appeared in a Marcuccio mailer that we reprint below.



The biggest third-party beneficiary of the election may be Laura Berthiaume, a Board of Education Member who endorsed Marcuccio and three of the four winning City Council Members. Berthiaume was MCEA’s choice to take out former school board member Steve Abrams last year, but she has caused the teachers some heartburn since then. Berthiaume showed that she was willing to take some risks, play ball in city politics and pick winners – one of whom (Bridget Newton) was her 2008 campaign manager. If Berthiaume runs for Delegate or another office again, she might have an alternate route to victory than the Apple Ballot.

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Marcuccio Defeats Hoffmann in Rockville

Challenger Phyllis Marcuccio has defeated incumbent Mayor Susan Hoffmann by a 3,311-2,998 (52.2%-47.3%) margin. Incumbent City Council Members Piotr Gajewski and John Britton were re-elected and joined by 2007 Mayor candidate Mark Pierzchala and Bridget Newton. Newton served as Laura Berthiaume's campaign manager in her successful campaign for the Board of Education and finished first in the council race. Berthiaume, who endorsed every winning candidate except Gajewski, took a risk by getting involved and won big.

The repercussions of this race will extend outside of Rockville and we will have more in the near future.

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Berthiaume Makes Endorsements in Rockville City Races

Laura Berthiaume, who finished fifth of seven candidates in the 2006 District 17 Delegate primary and was elected to the Board of Education last year, sent out this mass email naming her endorsees in tomorrow's Rockville city races. Berthiaume may one day run for higher office, so her chances are obviously helped if her chosen candidates win. She told us that her endorsements are issued as an individual and not in her capacity as a school board member.

Dear Friends and Neighbors,

Rockville city council and mayoral elections are tomorrow, with polls opening at 7 a.m. and closing at 8 p.m. I urge you all to take the time to vote. Some of you have asked for my recommendations, and I do have a few strong opinions. Let me preface my endorsements by saying that I want a city government that works well and serves the taxpayers in a fiscally sound way. More than that, I want a mayor and council that I can be proud of as a citizen of this city. I love Rockville. There are so many great things about this very unique place - it deserves political leadership of the highest quality. It deserves a mayor and council members who can get along with each other, respect citizen input, be honest about city finances, and make sensible budget decisions.

Taking the council race first, I will be voting for BRIDGET NEWTON and MARK PIERZCHALA. Over the past couple of years, I have gotten to know both of them very well. As you may know, and in the interests of full disclosure, Bridget was my campaign manager in this most recent election. The reasons that I asked Bridget to be my campaign manager are the same reasons I support her for city council. Bridget first came to my attention when a city development issue arose in my neighborhood and I asked around for names of people who could help. Someone said something like, "You should go talk to Bridget Newton. She has been really involved in the West End Civic Association, and she is so impressive. I remember when they put an addition on their house and there she was - just completely in control and directing the project with a baby on her hip. She is organized and she's knowledgeable, and she would be a great person to have on your side." She is indeed. Bridget has already contributed a huge amount to Rockville. She has walked the walk, whether as Chair of the Compensation Commission, a leader in TCAT, or President of the West End Civic Association. Bridget is sincere, honest, and impassioned about continuing to work for a Rockville that protects its neighborhoods, encourages business, and maintains it character. I hope you join me in voting for her, because she really would be a great person to have on our side for the next two years.

I first met Mark when he made his run for Mayor in the last election. Throughout that race his calm demeanor, his sensible answers, and his logical approach to issues convinced me that he would be a top-notch public servant. Mark is an extremely hard worker - I can vouch for the fact that when he commits to do something, he does it, no-holds barred. I know he will take the same approach to serving on the council. I appreciate his dedication to environmental issues, and he has a strong record of service in College Gardens. I believe he will work well with other council members even in the most trying of times because he knows how to disagree without being disagreeable.

For the third council seat, I continue my support for JOHN BRITTON. I think John has earned another term. Amid all the news reports of this last mayor and council that sometimes had me cringing, John has largely stayed out of the sniping and grandstanding. I appreciate his service, and I know he serves in office for all the right reasons.

For the fourth council seat, we have a good crop of high quality candidates in Virginia Onley, Carl Henn, Trapper Martin, and Max van Balgooy. I do not think you could go wrong voting for any of them, particularly if Bridget, Mark, and John are serving and have the right mayoral leadership.

In the mayor's race, after much thought, I urge your support for PHYLLIS MARCUCCIO. Many people whom I respect in Rockville who are politically active have endorsed Phyllis, and those endorsements carry a lot of weight with me. I know Phyllis well enough to know that she will always be honest - sometimes to the point of being blunt, but always completely honest. I think her stands on city finances are correct for this economy. In tough budget times, we do not need to be wasting taxpayer money pursuing awards or designing logos. When so many residents are having a hard time paying their mortgages, and when so many are losing jobs, we need to think hard about balancing taxes against residents' own needs to keep more of their money in their pockets. Beyond that, I just took a look at the campaign finance reports for both mayoral candidates. Phyllis's support is very much grass-roots, and very centered in Rockville. There are no LLCs on her campaign donor list. By contrast, this string of contributions appears on Susan Hoffmann's donor report:

10/16/2009 Nathan Landow, 4710 Bethesda Ave., Suite 200, Bethesda 20814: $1,000.00
10/16/2009 PMAS, LLC 2701 Tower Oaks Blvd., Suite 200, Rockville 20852: $250.00
10/16/2009 PMAS, LLC 2701 Tower Oaks Blvd., Suite 200, Rockville 20852: $250.00
10/16/2009 Realty ManaQementServices, Inc. 7910 Woodmont Ave., Suite 350, Bethesda 20814: $250.00
10/16/2009 Scott Roth 7910 Woodmont Ave., Suite 350, Bethesda 20814: $250.00
10/16/2009 Germantown Walter Johnson Prop., LLC P.O. Box 61220, Potomac 20859: $1,000.00

You can get a quick link to both reports on Rockville Central - go have a look for yourself. The above list is of course an excerpt and does not capture everything. Looking over the names on both donor lists, I drew my own conclusions about who would have Rockville and its neighborhoods' best interests front and center. While this is not the only factor in my decision to support Phyllis, it certainly had an impact.

Again, I urge everyone to go vote, whoever you may be supporting.

Thanks,

Laura Berthiaume

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Berthiaume Defeating Abrams

With 186 of 243 precincts reporting, School Board challenger Laura Berthiaume is leading incumbent Steve Abrams by 108,207-102,026 (51.3-48.4%). Phil Kauffman is blowing away Tommy Le by 2-1.

Looks like Steve Abrams has finally run out of friends.

Update: With 212 of 243 precincts reporting, Berthiaume is holding on to a 126,275-118,905 lead (51-48%). Bear in mind that both the Post and the Gazette endorsed Abrams while Berthiaume was supported by MCEA.

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MPW Election Predictions

For the entertainment of our readers, MPW has assembled an all-star panel to make predictions in the Presidential and U.S. Senate races as well as several ballots in Maryland. Let's see who gets it right and who gets it wrong!

The following individuals have the courage (or perhaps the foolishness) to participate in our exercise:

Alan Banov, Vice-Chairman, MCDCC
Delegate Bill Bronrott (D-16)
Sharon Dooley, UpCounty Action
Delegate Brian Feldman (D-15)
Pete Fosselman, Mayor of Kensington
Delegate Bill Frick (D-16)
Marc Korman, Member, MCDCC
George Leventhal, Montgomery County Council Member
David Lublin, MPW Founder and American University Professor of Government
Eric Luedtke, MCEA Board Member and FSP Blogger
David Moon, Former Raskin and Navarro Campaign Manager
Adam Pagnucco, Rogue of MoCo
Jerry Pasternak, Garson and Claxton
Kim Propeack, Casa de Maryland
Senator Jamie Raskin (D-20)

Here's our picks:

President by State

Arizona
The panel calls this state for McCain.

Colorado
The panel calls this state for Obama.

Florida
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman, Korman

Georgia
The panel calls this state for McCain.

Indiana
Obama: Fosselman, Korman, Luedtke, Raskin
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack

Missouri
Obama: Bronrott, Korman, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak
McCain: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Leventhal, Lublin, Pagnucco, Propeack, Raskin

Montana
Obama: Fosselman
McCain: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Nevada
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

North Carolina
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Leventhal, Pagnucco

North Dakota
Obama: Banov, Dooley, Raskin
McCain: Bronrott, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack

Ohio
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

Pennsylvania
The panel calls this state for Obama.

Virginia
Obama: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
McCain: Fosselman

The panel's consensus is that Obama will defeat McCain in the electoral count by a 353-185 margin.

Question for the Panel: The identity of the next President of the U.S. will be obvious as soon as the following info comes in on election night.

Banov: If Virginia goes for Obama, he wins. If he gets North Carolina, Missouri, or Montana, it’s a landslide. If Pennsylvania goes for McCain, we’re in trouble. If he takes Ohio, too, it is looking bad. If he takes Nevada, too, it’s kvetching time!

Bronrott: We will know as soon as the winners are called in the East-of-the-Mississippi states plus the Gateway-to-the-West state of Missouri.

Dooley: As soon as we know if the expected youth vote turnout has exceeded predictions.

Feldman: When the networks call Virginia for Obama after the polls close there at 7:00 PM.

Fosselman: Whoever wins Ohio.

Frick: I would say Ohio turnout figures. Mahoning Valley and Southeast Ohio in particular. If Obama can avoid a huge rout in East and Southeast Ohio, he wins Ohio and wins the presidency.

Korman: As Virginia goes, so goes the nation.

Leventhal: Who wins Virginia. The polls will close early (7 p.m.) and if Obama wins it, there really isn't any clear way for McCain to get 270 votes.

Lublin: The results from Virginia are among the earliest to come in. Obama's victory in Virginia will signal he has many roads to victory nationally and is doing well.

Luedtke: As soon as Pennsylvania votes strongly for Obama and McCain's only hope for an electoral college victory proves to have been far out of reach.

Moon: If NC or IN goes for Obama or McConnell goes down in KY, I think this race is over in a landslide.

Pagnucco: It's all about Virginia. If Obama's margin is large there, that will signify heavy African-American and youth turnout around the country.

Pasternak: It's 7:30 PM and the polls are closed in Ohio.

Raskin: As soon as we learn that Obama has won Virginia, Pennsylvania and Florida, we will know it’s over. If he loses one of those, we will have to wait to learn that he has won Ohio to know he will be president.

U.S. Senate

Alaska
Begich: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Stevens: Raskin

Colorado
Schaffer: Fosselman
Udall: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Georgia
Chambliss: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick (after run-off), Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke (after run-off), Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Martin: Lublin, Raskin

Kentucky
Lunsford: Fosselman, Lublin
McConnell: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley ("Drat!"), Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

Minnesota
Coleman: Bronrott, Banov, Feldman, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Franken: Dooley, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think this comes down to the wire. Al is good enough, smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like him. But most of those people live in New York."

Mississippi
Musgrove: Fosselman
Wicker: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin

New Hampshire
The panel calls this race for Shaheen.

New Mexico
The panel calls this race for Udall.

North Carolina
Dole: Fosselman
Hagan: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Note from Frick: "I think Obama has spent more time in North Carolina in the last 6 years than Liddy Dole has."

Virginia
The panel calls this race for Warner.

The panel's consensus is that the Democrats will pick up at least seven seats, eight assuming that Oregon turns over. This would give them a total of 59 Senators (or 58 if Joe Lieberman is expelled from the caucus).

Maryland

U.S. House 1
Harris: Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak
Kratovil: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Propeack, Raskin

U.S. House 6
Bartlett: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack, Raskin
Dougherty: Fosselman
Toss-Up: Bronrott

Slots
Pass: Banov, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Pasternak, Propeack
Fail: Raskin
Toss-Up: Bronrott
Note: Banov and Leventhal predict the referendum will fail in MoCo.

Ficker Amendment
The panel predicts the measure will fail.

MoCo School Board (At-Large)
The panel calls this race for Kauffman.

MoCo School Board (District 2)
Abrams: Korman, Leventhal, Lublin, Pasternak, Propeack
Berthiaume: Banov, Bronrott, Dooley, Feldman, Fosselman, Frick, Luedtke, Moon, Pagnucco, Raskin

We'll see whose picks are first and whose picks are worst tomorrow!

Update: Fivethirtyeight.com agrees with our Presidential forecast.

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MPW’s Record Month

MPW set an all-time internal record for visits in October 2008. But the reasons for this may surprise you.

It is true that two of our most popular series, MoCo’s Most Influential People and Saqib-Mania, appeared in whole or in part last month. But our most sustained increases in traffic have been driven by two completely different issues:

1. MCDCC’s Sample Ballot
Marc Korman’s guest post on the Central Committee’s sample ballot has drawn steady interest. Many people are finding it through Google and coming in directly to that entry. Other than (predictably) supporting all the Democratic candidates for office, the sample ballot outlines the party’s positions on the ballot questions. On the two county questions, the party recommends voting for repeal of legally ineffective charter provisions (Question A) and against the latest Ficker Amendment (Question B). On the two state questions, the party recommends voting for early voting (Question 1) and against slots (Question 2). The report from the party’s Ballot Questions Advisory Committee, which explains why the party adopted its positions, is here.

2. The MoCo School Board Races
MoCo voters are searching for info about the two school board races: the at-large contest between Phil Kauffman and Tommy Le, and the District 2 contest between incumbent Steve Abrams and challenger Laura Berthiaume. They are finding precious little from the mainstream media, but they have been making their way to this blog.

The three posts that have been drawing the most attention, almost always from people who have been referred by search engines, are:

Below the Radar, a guest post by Sharon Dooley in which she expresses her support for Kauffman.

What a Way to Seek an Endorsement, in which I reveal what a kook Tommy Le really is.

Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams, in which I demonstrate how no thinking person on either the left or the right could support his return to the school board. This last post is by far the most popular of the three as it shows up first on a Google search of the terms “Steve Abrams Laura Berthiaume.”

One of the reasons why we are getting record traffic on the school board race is that the mainstream media’s coverage has been so dreadful. The Post’s new piece is decent, but it came out only six days before the election. The Gazette’s coverage of the last school board debate offers less meat than a soy-burger. Neither the Post nor the Gazette report on Abrams’ constant running for every office higher than weasel catcher. Nor do they report the biggest development of the debate: District 2 candidate Laura Berthiaume said she would not run for any other office during her four-year term and challenged Abrams to make the same commitment. Abrams, of course, declined. Ace Gazette reporter Janel Davis would have picked up on that in two seconds, but unfortunately, she was not there.

If the Gazette wants to improve its coverage, they need to do two things.

1. Breed five clones of Ms. Davis and send them to all political events. If you want something done right, assign your best worker to the job.

2. Steal Examiner reporter Kathleen Miller and pay her what she’s worth (easily six digits). Then have Ms. Davis and Ms. Miller compete for the title of “Most Dangerous Woman in Print.” And watch your classified revenues go up.

Until then, we’re happy to get the site visits!

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Time to Get Rid of Steve Abrams (Updated)

The Gazette Editorial Board must not read the Gazette. If they did, they would never have endorsed incumbent school board member Steve Abrams’ bid for re-election.

Forget about the fact that Abrams was the sole opponent of a school board resolution calling for increased federal funding of No Child Left Behind requirements and opposition to vouchers for private schools. And forget about the fact that Abrams wrote the state legislature to oppose an assault weapons ban back when he was Chairman of MoCo’s Republican Central Committee. And – we know it is difficult to ask you to forget more – put aside the fact that he has been running non-stop for every office conceivable, from County Executive to County Council to Circuit Court Judge to House of Delegates to Rockville City Council to State Comptroller. (Everybody needs a hobby, although one wonders how he finds the time to do school board work.) Instead, let's discuss the fact that during the last two years, Abrams has been blazing a path of pathology through the Gazette that would make Robin Ficker recoil in outrage.

The latest blow-up occurred after Abrams’ ill-fated 2006 Republican primary run for State Comptroller, a race that saw him win just three of the state’s 24 counties. Unable to bear the thought of government without him in it, Abrams then announced his intention to join the Republican slate for Montgomery County Council. But the party already had a full slate, so Abrams bullied Adol T. Owen-Williams II into dropping out. Abrams’ tactics ultimately failed as he lost by more than 80,000 votes to the Democrats in the general election.

The story could have ended there, but with Steve Abrams, the story never really ends. Owen-Williams thought he had a “gentleman’s agreement” with Abrams for reimbursement of $5,000 in campaign expenses he had incurred before withdrawing. When Owen-Williams asked Abrams for the money after the general election, the “gentleman” erupted in fury. According to African-American Owen-Williams, Abrams called him “boy,” grabbed him by the throat and slammed his head against a wall. The two men filed assault charges against each other which were later dropped by prosecutors.

But once again, the story never ends with Steve Abrams! Abrams told the Gazette that county Republicans “conspired to set him up” for the assault charge because they were tired of dealing with his complaints. (We sympathize.) Abrams then became a Democrat and endorsed Barack Obama, prompting Montgomery County’s Republican Party Chairman to say, “He’s free to go where he wants to go... He had kind of made that threat before. As far as I can tell, no one on the Democrats want him either.”

Upon learning that Abrams had joined the Democratic Party, MCDCC Chairwoman Karen Britto gasped, “I’m speechless.” Well, I’m not going to be speechless and neither should you. There are plenty of sane, intelligent people who care about education in Montgomery County, one of whom is school board challenger Laura Berthiaume. There is no reason to tolerate bad behavior from our school board members that we would never tolerate from our students. It’s time to get rid of Steve Abrams.

Update: At the League of Women Voters Candidates Forum on October 27, Laura Berthiaume said she would not run for any other office during her four-year term and challenged Abrams to make the same commitment. Abrams, who constantly runs for office of every conceivable kind, declined. Folks, that says it all concerning what these two candidates care about.

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