Bob Ehrlich became Governor in 2002 partly because of good Republican turnout, support from independent voters and a monetary advantage. But there were other reasons for his win.
Unpopular Incumbent
Parris Glendening, who was about to leave office due to term limits, was lucky to not be on the ballot in 2002 because Ehrlich would have creamed him. Glendening barely defeated Ellen Sauerbrey – a far more conservative Republican than Ehrlich – in a hotly contested election in 1994, had a mostly sour relationship with the press, engaged in a bitter feud with then-Comptroller William Donald Schaefer and dumped his wife to marry a much younger (and pregnant) staffer in his last year in office. A Potomac Inc. tracking poll chronicles Glendening’s free-falling approval rating during his second term, which ultimately bottomed out at 37% approve/48% disapprove in October 2002.
In that same poll, 51% of the respondents agreed with this statement: “Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would just continue the policies of the Glendening administration. It’s time for a change.” Thirty-eight percent disagreed. Glendening was clearly a drag on his Lieutenant Governor’s candidacy against Ehrlich.
Could it happen today?
Governor O’Malley is not as unpopular as Glendening. Here is the history of his approval rating in office from Gonzales.
Interestingly, O’Malley’s low point in March 2008 (37% approve/48% disapprove), which came after the tax-hiking special session, was identical to Glendening’s ratings in October 2002. But O’Malley has recovered since then even though the economy has headed south. Could O’Malley’s approval ratings fall again? Sure, but he is lacking one key component of Glendening’s unpopularity: personal failings. O’Malley has no problems resembling Glendening’s marital drama, his war with Schaefer or his iciness with the press. That will offer him some protection from the negative effects of a bad economy.
Weak Democratic Candidate
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was the weakest Democratic candidate for Governor since George P. Mahoney, a segregationist who lost to Spiro Agnew in 1966. She was born in Connecticut and grew up in Virginia. She moved to Annapolis in 1984 and lost a Congressional race to Helen Delich Bentley two years later by a whopping 18 points. Glendening picked her as his running mate in 1994 to help him raise money against Lieutenant Governor, and former Senate President, Melvin Steinberg in the primary.
Townsend had no base in the state and no successful solo campaign experience when she ran for Governor in 2002. Townsend’s worst mistake was picking Charles Larson, a retired white Admiral who had very recently been a Republican, as her running mate. That decision alienated African Americans and liberals and converted no Republicans or conservative Democrats. A Gonzales poll in October 2002 found that Ehrlich was supported by 25% of Democrats(!), a key factor in Townsend’s four-point defeat caused by her weakness and ineptitude. Glendening piled on after the election, calling Townsend’s effort “one of the worst-run campaigns in the country.”
Could it happen today?
Absolutely not. Even O’Malley’s enemies must concede that he is an able competitor who bears no resemblance to the hapless Townsend. Love him or hate him, he has an interesting duality that serves him well in politics. O’Malley presents a pleasant, charismatic and vigorous face to the public that conceals a shrewd ruthlessness focused on taking down opponents. That formula helped him prosper in the seething hothouse of Maryland politics: the City of Baltimore. O’Malley has won two City Council elections, two mayoral elections, one gubernatorial victory (over Ehrlich) and even served as Barbara Mikulski’s field director in her first U.S. Senate win in 1986.
Additionally, O’Malley is sure to do one thing with gusto that Townsend did ineffectively: go negative. Congressman Ehrlich ran as a fiscal conservative and a social moderate in 2002. The main part of his record that the Democrats attacked at that time was his pro-gun positions, which they unsuccessfully attempted to link to the D.C. sniper shootings. O’Malley has a gigantic treasure trove of opposition research on Ehrlich’s term as Governor bequeathed to him by menacing former Democratic Press Secretary David Paulson. And that stash has only swelled with the addition of last year’s State Police spying scandal, a debacle for which Ehrlich has been unapologetic. Ehrlich is, in turn, bound to go negative against O’Malley, guaranteeing that a rematch will be one of the muddiest races in Maryland’s history.
How would it play out? We’ll predict the outcome in Part Five.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Four
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Can Ehrlich Defeat O’Malley? Part Three
Bob Ehrlich became Governor in 2002 for a variety of factors. Let’s see if those factors are equally valid today to see if he can win again.
Republican Registration and Turnout
In 2002, Republicans accounted for 30.0% of registered voters in Maryland and had a turnout rate of 67.4%, a full 4.5 points better than the Democrats. They accounted for 32.7% of actual voters. A Gonzales poll taken a month before the election showed that they favored Ehrlich over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend by a margin of 86-8%, or 78 points. Enthusiastic support and good turnout from his party was an essential ingredient in Ehrlich’s win.
Could it happen today?
Republicans account for just 26.6% of registered voters as of 10/31/09, a 3.4 point drop from 2002. If they are going to deliver for Ehrlich with the same impact that they had in 2002, they will have to launch a major registration drive or vastly increase their turnout margin over the Democrats.
In 2002, 1.74 Democrats voted in the general election for every Republican. If the Democrats turn out at their average rate for the last three gubernatorial general elections (61.8%) and the party registration percentages stay the same in 2010 as on 10/31/09, the GOP must have a turnout rate of 75.9% to keep pace with their 2002 ratio of 1 Republican voter for every 1.74 Democratic voters. Considering the fact that their turnout rate has varied between 62.6% and 67.4% in the last three gubernatorial elections, that is unlikely to happen.
The one 2002 fact that is likely to repeat is overwhelming Republican support for their nominee. The latest Gonzales poll showed that 16% of Republicans approved of Governor O’Malley while 66% disapproved, a 50-point negative gap. That gap will only grow if anti-O’Malley ads are aired next year.
Independent Registration and Turnout
In the 2002 general election, unaffiliated and other party registrants accounted for 13.9% of registered voters and 10.2% of actual voters. The Gonzales poll right before the election showed Ehrlich leading Townsend among independents by five points (39-34%), with 24% undecided. That same poll showed Ehrlich with a one-point edge among all voters. Since Ehrlich defeated Townsend by 3.9 points, we believe that independents broke for Ehrlich by a large margin, possibly by ten points or more.
Could it happen today?
Unaffiliated and other party registrants account for 16.6% of all registered voters today, a 2.7 point increase from 2002. But the GOP faces three challenges in turning them into Ehrlich voters in 2010. First, 41% of them live in Baltimore City and Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties, places where the Republican Party’s infrastructure is almost dead. Second, unaffiliated and other voters turned out at an average rate of 43.5% over the last three gubernatorial general elections, far below the rates of the GOP (64.3%) and the Democrats (61.8%). Third, the latest Gonzales poll showed that 41% of independents approved of Governor O’Malley’s performance and 39% disapproved. The GOP needs independents to turn sharply against O’Malley and come out to vote against him in huge numbers next year. That will likely happen only if 2010 sees a disastrous performance by the incumbent Governor.
Money
It’s ironic that the top fundraiser in Blue Maryland’s history is a Republican: Bob Ehrlich, of course. He outraised both of his Democratic rivals for Governor in 2002 and 2006 by a combined $6.1 million.
Could it happen today?
Maybe not. Governor O’Malley has been working the fundraising circuit hard, going as far as New York City and Miami Beach to search for money. And that’s not all: a recent O’Malley fundraiser in Potomac took in over $175,000. O’Malley had a campaign fund balance of $1,004,836.66 last January. He will have WAY more than that next month.
But Ehrlich does not need to outraise O’Malley. As a former Governor, Ehrlich’s name recognition is close to O’Malley’s. The last Gonzales poll showed that only 6% of Marylanders had not heard of Ehrlich while 2% had not heard of O’Malley. Ehrlich is confident that he can raise $10-12 million if he runs in 2010, a similar total to O’Malley’s 2006 take of $13.9 million. We agree with Ehrlich on this point: money will not be his problem. Rank-and-file Republicans want O’Malley gone yesterday. Many people in the business community detest O’Malley for his tax hikes (especially in the top income tax brackets) and his populist rhetoric. All of them will pay dearly for a real chance of dethroning the incumbent, and that will give Ehrlich all the resources he needs.
We’ll continue our analysis in Part Four.
